WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread [Archive] - Page 2

Kitanna

06-27-2014, 10:52 AM

A lot of attention has been paid to skip's bandwagon, so I'm not really going to add much, since nothing I could say will be new.

Rather, I'm interested in the Mac voters. We know now that skip is innocent, so it's not like the votes against Mac piled up to save him, so why did he get his own bandwagon? According to the timeline (as provided by the lynch candidate himself) Mac didn't receive a vote until after skip already had five.
1. Skip -> Gil
2. Lottie -> Skip (because she didn't like his vote, fair enough)
3. Sally -> Lottie (because reasons)
4. Boro -> Inzil (why?)
5. Kitanna -> Skip-2 (suspiciously placed, moving skip ahead of a four tie, but her reasoning feels innocent)
6. Wilwa -> Skip-3 (if Wilwa was still alive, this vote would look horrible)
7. Inzil -> Skip-4 (badly placed and badly reasoned. Inzil had a vote as well, so maybe part of him choosing the bandwaggon was self-preservation)
8. Gala -> Mac (boo)
9. Rikae -> Wilwa (a vote for the known seer is yucky, but I don't think she could have had any such suspicion; her reasons are solid)
10. Encai -> Nogrod (not sure about this one)
11. Eonwe -> Skip-5 (comes out of nowhere and adds vote #5. If he was a baddie, he could have found a less obvious place for his vote...)
12. Wyth22 -> Mac-2 (... like this)
13. Mac -> Inzil-2 (... or this )
14. Gil -> Boro (still spreading the vote at this late point, but then, Gil is Gil)
15. Lommy -> Wilwa-2 (spent the last hour vote-counting, reasoning is so-so)
16. Green -> Mac-3 (not happy about this one, but I can see where she's coming from)
17. Nogrod -> Mac-4 (this one I like less, as he's mostly using the point Greenie made; and riding a counter-bandwaggon is always better than riding the original one or throwing the vote away; if Inzil is a lion, Nog's vote looks not so good (Greenie's, too))
18. Volo -> Gala (throws vote away)
19. Eomer -> Inzil-3 (at this late point, he's effectively throwing his vote away, too, though less obviously)

Galadriel voted first, but we all know she's innocent.
Then Wyth, who today has seemed extra defensive. I'm guessing because
Either way, I'm not so sure. This might make my strategy a bit weak, but I'm still figuring things out around here.
^this was in his vote post from D1.
Then Greenie, who hadn't really said anything of note that I remember.
And finally Nog,
So Mac is one of the lovers and tries to play suspicious enough for the lions not to kill him during the Night?

That might also explain the odd "on your side" as he's basically on no-one's side (were he a lion he would have been more aware of the "opposite sides" and realized his wording's problematicness)
Which, correct me if I'm wrong, I read as Nog viewing Mac more as a lover, than a lion.

I'd say that there was a lion in skip's wagon for sure, but I feel there was probably one in Mac's too.

That said
Zil - Based on vote placement for Skip and his general agreeable attitude thus far I'd say he's the likely lion in that wagon. He also gained three votes of his own and at his vote placement he had one vote and his vote gave skip 4, thus pushing skip far into the lead.
Wyth & Greenie - I haven't seen a lot from them to make a really informed decision, but based on placement I'd say lion. I'm in the dark about Greenie, but Wyth has said a few things that I noted as odd. He seemed overly defensive earlier today, but hasn't been around much since to continue to watch. Also he was skip leaning yesterday, but switched to Mac. Which is odd to me.

I'm leaning toward an innocent Nog based on his vote.

Notes on a few others
Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players.
Mac - The more I see from others the less likely I find it that Mac is a lion. But his responses about the lover discussion are odd.
Gil - His vote was very, very safe. His comments haven't been unreasonable and though he's garnered some suspicion, he's stayed pretty well under the radar.

I'm going to vote in an hour or so, so I can get some RL work done. I'm not sure who I'll vote for, but my top three picks are Zil, Wyth, or Enca for the moment.

Nerwen

06-27-2014, 10:58 AM

I think that was just a typo. Because otherwise the sentence makes no sense.
Yes, I think he must have meant, "I was *not* the first vote". (He was the fourth vote.)

Nogrod

06-27-2014, 11:00 AM

Talking about votes that were more or less wasted / inconsequential aka. ones lions and other creatures who don't care who dies if their mate is not on the chopping-board (or do not wish to be scrutinized too much) prefer. (EDIT: added the verb "prefer" to make sense of the sentence)

In the order of dubiousness (aka. the latest first).

Volo's vote for G55.

Gil's vote for Boro.

Encai's vote for Nog.

Volo's is a total cast-away. With Gil and Encai you might imagine there was a possibility the ones they voted could also be lynched - but none of them actually tried to persuade others to vote their way or try to influence the outcome.

Detachment on who's lynched is one of the signs that should bring red flags around.

Also a question to Eomer: with Skip on 5 and Mac on 4 votes, did you really think voting Zil 1 minute before the DL would make a difference and what would that have been?

Volo I think has already answered why he voted the way he did - even if I'm not sure he could have really thought G55 was "lynchable" at that point even if he honestly suspected her - so whether he actually "knew" he was giving a throwaway - and in that case, did he do that on purpose or was it a genuine mistake?

EDIT: X'd with a lot...

Rikae

06-27-2014, 11:03 AM

Yes, I think he must have meant, "I was *not* the first".

Yes, I assumed he meant "not the first vote".

Edit: I was addressing "I was the first to suspect", which he clearly meant.

Eönwë

06-27-2014, 11:12 AM

It's my understanding that when a Targ is "flipped" by an attempted kill, the narration will indicate it. It doesn't get any clearer than that.

I just meant in such a scenario a lion who's going to die anyway could buy an extra day, because only the other lions and real Targaryen know their identity. Or anyone else (and in such a case, the wolves aren't exactly going to step in and confirm, though I can imagine they would try to get the false one killed to add credibility in the "see, I was right!" kind of way). And with no seer, this is even more possible. I mean, there's a very slim chance of such a thing, but that's the sort of scenario I was imagining.

Nerwen

06-27-2014, 11:13 AM

Also a question to Eomer: with Skip on 5 and Mac on 4 votes, did you really think voting Zil 1 minute before the DL would make a difference and what would that have been?
Well, it's hard to see how he could have made an effective vote at that point, whatever he did. However, he does word his vote-post as if there was a real chance of Zil being lynched, which is certainly odd.

Edit:x'd with Steve.

Nogrod

06-27-2014, 11:20 AM

I'll rephrase my last post into questions before I go for a while...

Eomer: What were you thinking throwing your vote away at the last minute? You really didn't think there would have been 3 votes coming Inzil's way crossing yours there at the last seconds to make your vote meaningful?

Volo: a) Did you really believe G55 could have gathered the votes to be lynched in the last five minutes? b) Why did you thought you should mention that you were "playing along" with my suspicions of G55? A cover (or even an attempt at framing) perhaps?

Gil & Encai: It looks easily that you just tried to make a vote that would look reasonable enough (so giving something in place of an argument to back your vote) but you didn't try to make a difference by trying to make others see your point. So bored ordos or more sinister ones trying to be careful?

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-27-2014, 11:25 AM

Also a question to Eomer: with Skip on 5 and Mac on 4 votes, did you really think voting Zil 1 minute before the DL would make a difference and what would that have been?

I did not think it would make a difference to the end result, no. However, I do believe that every player should vote. Mac seems innocent-ish to me (still) and I was fairly certain Skip was innocent. I was not going to be responsible for pushing Mac into the lead (although I promise you, I have no real problem should the rest of you want to violently lynch him today :p ).

I suspected Inzil so I put it in writing, as it were. I wouldn't agree that it's 'throwing my vote away', as has been claimed earlier.

Inzil is still top of my list, mostly for what is perhaps a rather unfair 'gut feeling' (he reminds me somewhat of myself as a villain, in writing style) and I am intrigued by certain cases put forward against him today. I'm still surprised that the other suspicious Skip-voter (Wilwa) was innocent (and extremely valuable :rolleyes: ) and doubt that they both were innocent.

Need to leave now, so:

++INZILADUN

Thinlómien

06-27-2014, 11:43 AM

On the contrary, insisting that the lions always must be killing based on seer suspicions looks to me like driving home a false trail.

If no one looks like a seer (and why should a seer who's had one dream, probably an innocent, look like one? A good one would lie low), they aren't going to just kill someone who happened to suspect one of them. If someone looks like another gifted that's a good kill choice too, and hunters usually only become a threat late in the game, when they have some clue what's going on.

Really, all this insistence that, if lions killed someone, it must have been as a suspected seer, irks me because it's really simplistic WW. Can you imagine how easy this game would be if that were really true?Well then we will have to agree to disagree, because I can't see why the wolves wouldn't go for the seer unless there's a special reason not to. It doesn't make the game any easier though, because going for a potential seer might simply mean going for someone who has a gifted vibe (as might be in this case, I agree G55 seemed a little too involved yesterDay - that's why I thought she was a wolf) or who defends an innocent in a seerish way.

Of course, this game is a little different, as the lions have a reason to go for possible bears as well. I guess it depends on the wolves whether they consider the seer or the bear a bigger threat for themselves. Which, now that I think of it, leads me to think the wolves might try to kill either people who might be seers that dreamed of them (ie seers that are immediately dangerous for them) or bears. It's entirely possible G55 was killed for looking like a bear instead of a seer, or that she was killed because Volo or Mac is a wolf. But I'll take some of my words back - it wouldn't make much sense for the wolves to go for a possible seer that just said someone innocent looks innocent.

#75. Rikae says wondering is in fact all the real Targaryen would be able to do in the case of a false-reveal, and goes on to add:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rikae
Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?
It is from this point that the suspicion starts to build around skip.This caught my eye. I know Rikae is a crafty player, could it be that wolf!Rikae decided to do a little experiment and blow a little suspicion in the direction of innocent Skip who had been acting a bit erratically (yet characteristically) and see if it catches fire? Also I don't know what to make of her and Inzil arguing which one of them was the first one to voice suspicion against an innocent that was eventually lynched - wouldn't wolves rather hope people forget their involvement in something like that?

Lommy casts suspicion on the skip-voters, while still leaving herself the option of voting him (see #121).I never said people who were voting Skip were particularly suspicious. What I said was that a bandwagon of the sort that got him lynched is usually against an innocent. There's a difference there. Sudden Day1 bandwagons against people with a controversial playing style are a frequent phenomenon and in my experience both innocents and wolves take part in them. Wolves might smell an easy lynch and jump in, or knowing the person is innocent, stay back in order to look better. To be honest, I doubt we're going to glean much information from the lynch, because there might as well been wolves involved as not.

The relevant question is mostly who were the other lynch candidates and could a wolf have been voting Skip in order to save their fellow, which (based on my memory) is unlikely because wasn't Skip on the lead the whole time?

Nerwen

06-27-2014, 11:51 AM

The relevant question is mostly who were the other lynch candidates and could a wolf have been voting Skip in order to save their fellow, which (based on my memory) is unlikely because wasn't Skip on the lead the whole time?
Yes- he had five votes before anyone else got two.

Loslote

06-27-2014, 11:53 AM

Also I don't know what to make of her and Inzil arguing which one of them was the first one to voice suspicion against an innocent that was eventually lynched - wouldn't wolves rather hope people forget their involvement in something like that?

Zil voted fourth, in the middle/end of the bandwagon, and is trying to argue that he wasn't just jumping on a bandwagon based on the "fact" that, even though he voted late, he'd been arguing for the lynch the whole time.

That being said, he wasn't the first, and even if he had been, I don't know that being the first to express suspicion means that he wasn't jumping on a bandwagon when he voted. After all, he may have suspected skip already, but that bandwagon was unmistakably a bandwagon, and he didn't have to follow through on his early suspicion.

++Zil

And if Zil does turn out to be a lion, I think we should turn a close eye to Mac. Their suspicion of each other this game has been very lackluster - they mention every so often that they're suspicious, but they don't do anything about it, which looks a lot like packmates "suspecting" each other to me.

Rikae

06-27-2014, 11:55 AM

I don't care for lists, really, but I need to organize my thoughts. I'll try to keep it brief.

Eönwë - Last on the Skip wagon. At this point, that's a conservative vote, especially since the consensus seems to be that a lion wouldn't do it. Possibly the worst of the Skip-voters.
Inziladun - He seems defensive, but I think if he really had something to hide he'd probably be more cautious.
Kitanna - I thought she was suspicious but after looking everything over again, seems foul but feels fair. Her vote for Skip is actually reasonable enough and not too waggony.
Encaitare - This, from post #55, kind of jumps out at me:
"I think it would behoove the lions/wolves to not worry so much about the Bear right now. It's good for them to have two kills a night, for now. Could go either way, though."
Others expressed the same sentiment, but this just seems... odd.

Her vote for Nog also seems kind of out of the blue, and not very well-supported.
Because he is acting very suspicious of Galadriel, and while I agree that she has been rather, um, aggressive, I don't think that would be a good lion strategy. It could be that Nogrod is latching on to that and trying to draw attention toward her. Meanwhile, he has been very quiet, maybe to keep attention away from himself. (Surely one can post on the internet and watch the World Cup at the same time. ;) )
It's the sort of vote that's likely to be overlooked when there's an ordo-wagon to analyze (which she could have anticipated, at that point).

Thinlómien - Seems trustworthy enough, especially since she suspects me now.
Boromir88 - Hasn't said enough.
Loslote - Safe, noncontroversial. Skip vote isn't suspicious in itself, since there wasn't a wagon yet, but it also is rather an easy vote.
Nerwen - Seems to be poking, casting a little suspicion here and there. Then again, that is a good tactic for an ordo hunting lions as well, though I think ordos usually are more purposeful about it.
A Little Green - Seems innocentish.
WythDryden - I can't read him at all, not enough to go on yet.
Eomer of the Rohirrim - He just seems slippery. Glib. Safe. Too much like a lion would want to be.
Macalaure - A bear! A bear! Seriously, though, I'm unsure about him.
Coppermirror - No opinion yet, except that huge lists make me sad.
Nogrod - Seems his usual self. I disagree with him on some things, but he doesn't appear guilty.
Volo- Seems ok. I'm not buying the "Gal looked seerish" theory, and there's nothing else against him.
Gil-Galad - Gil's posts always look suspicious, so I try not to suspect him unless there is more evidence.
satansaloser2005 - Silly or under the reindeer. I can't say anything about her at this point.

Encai, Eomer and to some extent Eönwë look the most suspicious to me right now. Or maybe I'm just prejudiced against the letter 'E'.

Edit: Oh, and Nerwen.

Rikae

06-27-2014, 12:01 PM

This caught my eye. I know Rikae is a crafty player, could it be that wolf!Rikae decided to do a little experiment and blow a little suspicion in the direction of innocent Skip who had been acting a bit erratically (yet characteristically) and see if it catches fire?

That's exactly what I was doing. If I was sure, I would have just voted for him myself. It's always a good idea to watch the reaction to a suspicion before acting on it. If people seem too eager to agree, something is probably amiss.

Inziladun

06-27-2014, 12:02 PM

You weren't. I was.

Ok. I was thinking only of the skip voters who preceded me.

That is also beside the point - if you decided the wagon looked fishy, why did you proceed to jump on it?

Mainly because I was pressed for time and had no better ideas.

Thinlómien

06-27-2014, 12:08 PM

Innocentish
Copper - seems reasonable and perceptive in an innocent way, no alarm bells.
Nogrod - when he thinks aloud on the thread, I can hear little wheels furiously turning :D which makes me think he writes what he genuinely thinks instead of trying to hide something.
Gil - kind of under the radar, but he seems to have developed a playing style less chaotic than how it was years ago, plus he makes good points. There's nothing particularly worrisome about him atm.

No idea
Eönwë - still under my radar.
Inzil - people keep suspecting him but I think he looks the same as always. Which of course doesn't mean anything since he's probably been wolf half of the games I've played in. :p
Boro - Boro flying under the radar?! What's this? As far as I remember, he hasn't really done anything note-worthy, good or bad, this far, which in itself could be worrisome. Not enough grounds for suspicion though.
Lottie - I keep reading her posts like "I disagree, but she seems ok". Normally she seems more suspicious to me, though, which is weird.
Greenie - I would like to say that she seems her sharp innocent self but that would be ignoring the fact that she's almost as much under my radar as Eönwë aka the King-under-the-Radar.
Wyth - can't judge because I haven't seen him play before, fair enough this far.
Rikae - I think she's not half as laid-back as a wolf, but then again, it's a long time she last played so I'm not sure how valid that point is, also really baffled about what to make of her relationship with dead Skippy.
Mac - like Rikae, he's been away for a time and changed playing style meanwhile. He's so chaotic he seems like a cobbler, but since that's not an option, I think ordo and lover are the most likely options. It's still possible he's a very bold wolf too, can't really read this new Mac at all.
Sally - might actually usurp Eönwë as the ruler of the radarworld.

Suspiciousish
Kitanna - I can't pinpoint it, but something in her posting seems wrong to me, as does the fact that people have been defending her left and right even though she's hardly been under any suspicion toDay.
Encai - I'm getting the feeling that the wolves are probably flying under the radar and enjoying the show, and Encai would fit that part. There's something non-committal about her in this game that I don't remember from way back and it makes me a little wary.
Nerwen - is playing very similarly as last game when she was a wolf. Not that it's very different from her innocent playing style - but I think she analyses a bit more as a wolf and banters a bit more as an innocent.
Eomer - I feel bad for putting him here because I always suspect him regardless of his role, but he's been pointing an awful lot of fingers without contributing that much himself. I'm wary of him.
Volo - I haven't picked a particularly suspicious vibe from him, but others have pointed out his voting yesterDay was odd, plus IF the wolves though G55 was the seer, it makes him look the worst.

I'm still hoping for something to happen that would make the situation clearer, because no one really stands out to me as super wolvish while almost everyone looks at least a bit suspicious. I would prefer to vote someone from my last category but I also reserve the right to change my opinion. ;)

edit: xed with everyone

Macalaure

06-27-2014, 12:09 PM

Some good points were raised against Inzil, so I had to go take a look myself.

When I saw the voting yesterDay. I thought Wilwa's looked the worst , but now I might say Kit.
So...
- Your own suspicion aside, you voted with people you thought were sketchy, however:
- You did not mention any of this when you did vote.
- You did not post again after your vote, and you crossed your vote with Wilwa, so, unless you were lurking (after voting a whole hour before the deadline!), you did not actually see much of the voting, at least not yesterDay.

I could see the placement of his vote as something a Lion would do, but I do think it would have been more desirable for one to have placed a bandwagon vote in the middle.

You don't say. ;)

I have to point out that I was the first to cast suspicion on skip, even though I was the first vote.
Where?
Rikae first raises points against Skip in #75, and Loslote submits the first vote for him in #83. You didn't post in between them. You talk a bit about him in #51, but you can't call that casting suspicion.
I thought at first, maybe he came up with his own points and didn't realize somebody else already gave them - happens - but you can't make such a mistake honestly anymore after the first vote was cast.

Ok. I was thinking only of the skip voters who preceded me.
I don't think this makes sense.

Defend yourself, sir! ;)

Nerwen

06-27-2014, 12:38 PM

Since I have to vote now-

++Mac

I have already stated a few points against him, although admittedly some suggest Lover rather than Lion.

However though the Skip waggon was clearly not *needed* to save anyone, it may still have been that the Lions got it going because one of their number was under suspicion. It may also be that the Mac waggon happened because the Lions felt it was now safe to vote a comrade. Note that these points could apply to Zil too, however I also just want to bring in another candidate.

Good luck!

A Little Green

06-27-2014, 12:38 PM

Our Wilwa the Three-Eyed Ravenbeing zapped on Night 2 is the worst thing that could have happened. 18 people left, of which there are 2 lovers, 3 lions, and 13 innocents. It's also unfortunate that the 3 we've lost were talkative.I'm never too fond of excessive lamentations over whoever died, and the tone of this particular one rubs me the wrong way.

Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions. In which case Volo and Mac look decent.Didn't mention any lions? Meaning what?

As I said before, I strongly feel that one Lion (not more) was in on the Skip bandwagon yesterDay. Loslote was first, so I don't think it's her.Not sure about this - Lottie's vote was, in a way, even safer than those in the middle of a bandwagon. Skip was a very easy target in many ways.

Eönwë aka the King-under-the-RadarThis pretty much made my day.

EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

A Little Green

06-27-2014, 12:42 PM

Am I right in that the votes this far are

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen - Mac

?

Macalaure

06-27-2014, 12:49 PM

The kills seem to point towards lions/lovers that were relatively comfortable on Day One, so with that in mind: a list!

Hodor.
Gil
Greenie
Rikae
Kitanna
Volo

Hodor?
Copper - Sweetly and soundly sleeping under my radar.
Nogrod - All helpful and reasonable, but I can't make myself trust him.
Eonwe - Nothing sticks out as suspicious, except the vote.
Boro - Boro?
Loslote - Reasonable, except her suspicion of me, but I might be biased about that.
Sally - Sally?
Encai - Sweetly and soundly sleeping under my radar.
Nerwen - All helpful and reasonable, but I can't make myself trust her. (wrote this before seeing her vote, might re-evaluate)

Hodor!
Inzil - See above.
Wyth - Won't vote for him toDay, but I'm still wary.
Eomer - Just going along with other people's suspicions here, I know, but he has been playing it safe.

However though the Skip waggon was clearly not *needed* to save anyone, it may still have been that the Lions got it going because one of their number was under suspicion. It may also be that the Mac waggon happened because the Lions felt it was now safe to vote a comrade.

The Skip waggon was already quite under way before I got under more serious suspicion (after Greenie's post), so the first part doesn't make sense.
If I was a lion and any other lions thought it was safe to vote for me yesterDay, I'd have to do some roarin' at them during the Night. That was definitely too close for comfort. Also, Greenie and Nogrod put some serious points under their votes - not very lion-on-lion.

Macalaure

06-27-2014, 12:51 PM

EDIT: I realize that Inzil doesn't go together with "the lions were probably comfortable". I'll look up "consistent" in the dictionary some time. :smokin:

Thinlómien

06-27-2014, 12:59 PM

Eönwë

06-27-2014, 01:02 PM

General feelings at the moment:

Worrying:
-Boro - Too much IC for the amount of actual substance posted. And just generally very little posting. Scares me greatly.
-Zil - Usually louder and more confrontational. Seems intentionally attempting to be out of the main focus. Very sneaky.

Kind of worrying:
-Mac
-Nog

I keep on flip-flopping:
-Nerwen - I didn't like her 'Yeah, I’m thinking this out as I go along' (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=692416&postcount=223) or her #28 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=692184&postcount=28), but I could potentially see an innocent posting them.
-Lommy - She seems good, but something about her makes me uneasy.
-Loslote - See Lommy

No idea:
-Volo
-Cop
-Eomer

Seem good for now:
-Rikae - I seem to disagree with her about some things, but she doesn't seem evil.
-Gil - Sometimes says strange stuff, but nothing that actually seems evil.
-Kitanna - Generally seems logical and helpful.
-Encaitare

Still not enough for an opinion:
-WyDry
-Greenie
-Sally

edit: added missing word

Macalaure

06-27-2014, 01:02 PM

Very nice, but what about me?

Ha! I copied the names from your list, so I wouldn't forget anyone. :D
Yeeeah... *cough* :rolleyes:

Hodor?
Lommy - All helpful and reasonable, but I can't make myself trust her.

Nerwen

06-27-2014, 01:02 PM

The Skip waggon was already quite under way before I got under more serious suspicion (after Greenie's post), so the first part doesn't make sense. If I was a lion and any other lions thought it was safe to vote for me yesterDay, I'd have to do some roarin' at them during the Night. That was definitely too close for comfort. Also, Greenie and Nogrod put some serious points under their votes - not very lion-on-lion.
Firstly, you had already come under some suspicion earlier. Secondly, I only said they might have thought it was safe. Thirdly, I wouldn't have expected either of those two to sound "very lion-on-lion" if in fact they were.

I don't claim that any of this actually proves you're a villain, mind you, I'm just explaining my vote. Okay?

EDIT: x'd since Mac at #275.

Rikae

06-27-2014, 01:04 PM

For reasons previously mentioned:

++Encaitare

Kitanna

06-27-2014, 01:04 PM

++Enca

Just got super busy at work, but the short of it
1) she's been just vocal enough to appear helpful, but not so vocal as to draw too much attention
2) she seemed very chummy D1, especially with Eomer
3) her vote for Nogrod looked very safe to me

edit: cross-posted with everyone since my last post

Nerwen

06-27-2014, 01:07 PM

And Greenie: good catch (again) about Kitanna! Can you proofread my thesis when I finally get around to writing it?
Hey, I didn't even register that! What the-?:eek:

EDIT:x'd with Kit.

Encaitare

06-27-2014, 01:09 PM

I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:I mean she doesn't seem to back others viewpoints or agree a lot but does that with Inzil a couple of times. Okay, that's based on Encai's analysis and she might have not reported everything (on purpose or without any) but that kind of thing actually does raise an eyebrow or two - especially as they both voted Skip, and Inzil was suspected & voted himself...

To be clear, my summary did not include every detail of Kitanna's posts, just the points that stuck out to me.

Notes on a few others
Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players.

Since you keep bringing this up, I suppose I should address it. I hadn't until now because I thought it was fairly obvious that I was joking around. G55 and Eomer had been going back and forth, so I jumped in with a joke post. Lightening the mood, as it were -- we do play this game for fun, right? -- though it seems to have backfired.

I'm going to go back and attempt to summarize the posts from Inzil and Eonwe, who are my two remaining suspects.

Nerwen

06-27-2014, 01:11 PM

Well, Kit, now that you're here-

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kit, re: Gal
Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions. In which case Volo and Mac look decent.
Didn't mention any lions? Meaning what?

Indeed. Meaning what?

Rikae

06-27-2014, 01:12 PM

Didn't mention any lions? Meaning what?

Seemed to me that she meant "it's possible she didn't mention any lions which would make her a random choice". In fact, that's the only way the stuff about Mac and Volo makes sense.

A Little Green

06-27-2014, 01:15 PM

Suspicious
Macalaure - His infamous "on your side" -slip notwithstanding, I'm uneasy about the way he explained it afterwards - yesterDay he tried shrugging it off with a "yikes" and a smiley, then returned to the issue again toDay with a nonchalant "I don't really know how that happened". I would have thought an innocent accidentally making what looks like a lion slip would have explained himself already yesterDay. Bold lion, or bold bear? Although why the bear would make such a show of himself goes beyond me.

Suspicious-ish
Coppermirror - A nagging gut-feeling from the phrasing of the "oh no, the Seer is dead" -comment, and the slightly shaky reasons behind the vote for Eomer.
Kitanna - Confuses me. I'm not sure what to make of her saying that Gal didn't mention any lions (although it's more than possible that I just didn't understand what she meant), and I agree with Lommy about the strangeness of people defending her so strongly when nobody really suspects her.
Lommy - She keeps making me laugh, but that aside, she acted quite oddly yesterDay. She seems a bit more like her normal self toDay, but her yesterDay's frivolous twitchiness still puzzles me. She hasn't been a wolf in ages so I'm thinking a possible Lommylion who overdid "acting like a normal, cheerful Lommy despite being a bad guy this time, mwaha" yesterDay and has had time now to get her bearings and calm down.
Loslote - As I said, I don't really agree that the placement of her vote as the first of the Skipwagon makes her look more innocent. I don't think so. It was a really easy vote as Skip had made a good target of himself and, if I recall correctly, people had already started voicing suspicions of him by the time Lottie cast her vote. On the other hand, some of her other posts have given off a slight innocentish vibe.

Kingdom-under-the-Reindeer/no idea
Inziladun
Eönwë
Boromir88
Nerwen
WythDryden
Gil-Galad
Sally

Leaning innocent
Eomer - Could be a really composed Eomerlion (incidentally, why does every name sound epic when you add "lion" to the end?), but I think his response to Nog's grilling question looked innocent.
Encaitare - I'm actually not sure if I've ever played with her before, but I've seen nothing to make me alarmed this far. I disagree with her on some points, but her reasoning strikes me as innocentish.
Rikae - I seem to disagree with her about a lot of things, but I also feel pretty okay with her at the moment. Sharp, reasonable, and more laid-back than I think a Rikaelion (honestly now, that sounds like the name of a David Eddings trilogy!) would be.
Nogrod - No alarm bells. (I wonder if this means he's in fact a Noglion since I always suspect him when he's innocent... :rolleyes: )
Volo - Still feeling pretty good about him.

EDIT: Oh my, x-ed with a host!

Gil-Galad

06-27-2014, 01:19 PM

As much as I see the point to vote for Mac, i am always weary of day one bandwagons. Skip fell victim to it and Mac was really close. I am willing to give Mac one more day.

Zil does sit odd with me as well, but being rather talkative at the beginning and then getting some backlash.

I don't see enough from Eomer to make him a guilty person. Being quiet is almost as bad as talking a lot in these games.

Enca has been downplayed and helpful, to a point that flying under the radar is obvious.

I will think before i vote in the next couple minutes.

X'd with greenie

A Little Green

06-27-2014, 01:22 PM

I'm not super happy with the three who have already got some votes; I don't suspect Encai or Eomer and have no idea about Inzil. I'd prefer Mac or Kitanna toDay, would be okay with Lommy, Copper or Loslote too.

Nogrod

06-27-2014, 01:23 PM

And Greenie: good catch (again) about Kitanna! Can you proofread my thesis when I finally get around to writing it? :DThat was actually kind of mind-blowing - and I know I read the very same sentence earlier myself but didn't catch it... Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions.
Now this would be a slip of the year indeed! I mean yeah, how does she know she didn't mention any lions unless she knew who they were aka being one herself?

Could it be this easy? Probably not...

But I'm going to go back and see whom she actually left without notice (the first part of her list everyone - mysef included - have kind of ignored as "not seerish").

EDIT: X'd like billions (didn't realize there was a new page already in full speed...)

Encaitare

06-27-2014, 01:28 PM

Note: As I begin this post, there are 45 minutes left toward the deadline. So, this will not be an exhaustive post, but I will make note of things that stand out to me.

Inziladun

Page 1, notes that the Lovers can choose which side to support, and change at any time.

Page 2, says the Lions should be the main focus, not the Lovers, and agrees with Kitanna that a Cobbler is not the worst that could happen.

Page 3, says that he is leaning toward suspicion of Skip, because of the Targaryen reveal stuff, and his "seemingly easy" vote for Gil. Then votes for Skip.

Page 5: Wonders what G55 did to get the Lions' attention, saying it's probably the only useful information from the Night. Various other discussion, agreeing and disagreeing with certain people, very little new information introduced.

Page 6: Says the votes should be examined. Agrees that it's likely that a Lion voted for Skip, and repeats that killing the Lions is the priority. Is curious about Boro and Mac's votes.

Page 7: Says that out of the Skip voters, he was the first to cast suspicion on Skip.

Final thoughts on Inzil: I don't know why a "seemingly easy" vote on Day 1 is a red flag. It's Day 1, almost no one knows anything. I think it's unusual that he thinks there's little use in analyzing why the Lovers chose to kill Wilwa. Could Inzil be one of them? But if he were a Lover, that would be a clumsy thing to say...

I'm still suspicious because of his vote placement yesterDay. Now to analyze Eonwe before the deadline.

Volo

06-27-2014, 01:29 PM

I'm in the middle of a social gathering so WW is a bit impolite.

Volo: a) Did you really believe G55 could have gathered the votes to be lynched in the last five minutes? b) Why did you thought you should mention that you were "playing along" with my suspicions of G55? A cover (or even an attempt at framing) perhaps?
a) I felt that so late in the Day it was mass hysteria, which leads to a bad choice if following a bandwagon or a bad choice following a counterwagon. Either way, any other choice would have been better - which means voting out of the box.
So I was more hopeful than calculative, except for reacting to this.
My preference would be

1. G55
2. Mac or Wilwa
and I guess this answers b) and c). I wanted to get your attention before your vote. If you hadn't posted your preferences, I would have figured out someone else to vote.

WythDryden

06-27-2014, 01:32 PM

The dynamics and and complexities of this game is pretty huge. A question I have is if the bear and the lions both go after the same person in the night what happens, and how does that get resolved?

Admittedly I'm a bit overwhelmed by all the different people, and I dont think that I have the time to go back and find all the quotes to guide my suspicions, but I'll lay out the list here as my gut feels. And honestly, everyone has made so many points about each of the people here that I don't think I can really contribute more to them, even if that does make me suspicious for not contributing.

No idea:
Eönwë
A Little Green
Eomer of the Rohirrim
Coppermirror
Nogrod - Seems innocent. Exploring many options and generally putting ideas on the table.
Gil-Galad
satansaloser2005

Maybe an idea:
Kitanna
Encaitare
Thinlómien
Boromir88 - Says a lanister would let the village do the dirty work, then disappears.
Loslote
Nerwen
Rikae
Volo
Macalaure - With the poking and prodding and such of today, I'm less convinced than before that he is a lion. It seems to be the strategy to try and draw lions out of the woods, so he's looking ok here. Though I do think he could be a bear.

Squinty-eyed:
Inziladun

Ultimately I think the bear is still on the side of the villagers. Even if the kill takes an innocent they may still be operating under the intentions of trying to get a wolf. Which is why I don't think I'll be voting for Mac. Though, I'm adittedly a little afraid of voting for for Inz, in the event that he is an innocent, it may look like I'm jumping on a bandwagon there too and putting myself in a bad position. Oh well, I'm still learning as I go. Apparently I'm suspicious of more people than not. And that's subject to change.

Edit: X'd Volo

Thinlómien

06-27-2014, 01:32 PM

Personally I would prefer lynching a quieter person toDay, because I keep getting the feeling the village is getting sidetracked mostly focusing on the loudmouths. I don't want anyone to feel like they can keep posting a couple of short posts per Day and slip under the radar and gobble up the village in their sleep. But this might just be the normal loudmouth vs quieter poster debate that we don't definitely need half an hour before the DL. :rolleyes:

She seems a bit more like her normal self toDay, but her yesterDay's frivolous twitchiness still puzzles me."Frivolous twitchiness"? The only frivolous thing I did was starting the Day by a long banter post - and I don't regret that, it's not every day you get such a chance to make stupid jokes about A Song of Ice and Fire. :p

edit: xed with Volo and Wyth

Inziladun

06-27-2014, 01:34 PM

So...
- Your own suspicion aside, you voted with people you thought were sketchy, however:
- You did not mention any of this when you did vote.
- You did not post again after your vote, and you crossed your vote with Wilwa, so, unless you were lurking (after voting a whole hour before the deadline!), you did not actually see much of the voting, at least not yesterDay.

I read the results of the Day afterward. That's a pretty small thing for you to focus upon.

As for the "defense" of myself, I've pretty much said all I can to explain my vote for skip.

x/d with Lommy and Wyth

Macalaure

06-27-2014, 01:34 PM

Secondly, I only said they might have thought it was safe. Thirdly, I wouldn't have expected either of those two to sound "very lion-on-lion" if in fact they were.
But if you state it, you must have something in mind for it, otherwise it's meaningless, which is of course suspicious. So, if not Greenie or Nogrod, and certainly not Galadriel, this only leaves Wyth as possible lion-on-lion?

I'm just explaining my vote. Okay?
I understand. But if you're voting for me and I don't think the explanation makes sense, is it unreasonable for me to point at it?

I would have thought an innocent accidentally making what looks like a lion slip would have explained himself already yesterDay.
I was surprised nobody came back to it toDay...
Ok, back to it then. When you first pointed it out, I just thought it was funny. Then everybody ran off with it. I would have explained it right then, but didn't have the time. Whether toDay or yesterDay, the result would have been the same, though: I would have looked at it closer, wondered what I actually did there, and tried to figure it out with middling success.

Thinlómien

06-27-2014, 01:35 PM

Boromir88 - Says a lanister would let the village do the dirty work, then disappears. I'm not sure if this is a lead worth following but this quote definitely cracked me up. :D Boro, where art thou and can you please start being your normal loudmouthed self?

Nogrod

06-27-2014, 01:37 PM

Bah... it's like everyone except Mac, Volo and maybe Skip whom G55 kind of "does not mention"...

That said, I might be ready to consider Kit among a few others. Adding the point Lommy & Greenie have brought fore about people defending her it might be a decent try.

Can you say who have done that defending though? I think I have no time to go for checking that - but if you two or one of you had a clearer idea than just "people have been" defending her?

Thinlómien

06-27-2014, 01:38 PM

If Greenie's tally was correct, we now have

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen - Mac
Rikae - Encai
Kitanna - Encai (2)

and 11 people left to vote.

edit: xed with Nog

Kitanna

06-27-2014, 01:39 PM

Well, Kit, now that you're here-

Indeed. Meaning what?
I mean. That she was chosen because she didn't specifically mention any lions in her posts. So they chose her as a no trace kill.

Edit: just a theory on why her since what she said didn't look too seerish to me, with the exception of her Wilwa defense

Volo

06-27-2014, 01:39 PM

Some suspect Mac to be the Bear, or the Maiden perhaps. I have had a similar suspicion since some point yesterDay, when we began the Targaryen revelation stuff. However a) I would prefer not to lynch the Bear. b) Mac has contributed a lot.
The problem with this kind of thinking is that it might give a LionMac a free pass. However, I'll give Mac the benefit of doubt for now.

Aganzir

06-27-2014, 01:40 PM

The dynamics and and complexities of this game is pretty huge. A question I have is if the bear and the lions both go after the same person in the night what happens, and how does that get resolved?
If they target the same person, whoever makes it there first (that is, sends their kill first) gets the credit.

If they target each other, both parties die.

(12 people left to vote, Lommy - did you forget to count yourself again? :p)

Encaitare

06-27-2014, 01:40 PM

As with my previous post, I won't cover everything here, but make note of the things that stand out.

Eonwe

Page 4, first and only post of the Day. Discusses the possibility of a Targaryen reveal, including what if a Lover and a Lion both fake-reveal. Votes for Skip and says this:

And since I wouldn't expect a fellow lion to start a concrete vote against one when the feeling was already against one, if he is one, I suppose this'll make Lottie look innocent.

This is confusingly phrased and took me a minute to parse. I think he means that Lottie wouldn't start a vote against Skip if they were both Lions, so that if Skip turned out to be a Lion, Lottie would appear innocent. But initially the phrase "fellow lion" struck me as a slip of the tongue.

Page 7, clarifies something he said about a false-reveal Targaryen potentially buying an extra day of life. Lists his general feelings, is most suspicious of Boro and Inzil.

Final thoughts on Eonwe: He hasn't really done enough posting for me to get a vibe off of him. I still feel that one of the Lions voted to kill Skip, but I'm not leaning toward this one.

WythDryden

06-27-2014, 01:44 PM

++Inzil

Inziladun

06-27-2014, 01:44 PM

It really looks odd the way this Day started with "Mac could be the Bear/a Lion", and yet now the focus has been moved onto me.

I'm at the point now that I think knowing Mac's role could give some useful info.

++Mac

x/d with Wyth

Nogrod

06-27-2014, 01:45 PM

Gil-Galad

06-27-2014, 01:45 PM

With almost 15 min to go before deadline, there is a lot of people not speaking or showing up today.

++Mac

I don't like most of the choices here, but out of all of them I have found Mac to be defensive, even passionate at times on day 1 when it was a close call for him. He has a part in this, but it leans more to a sinister part.

Now back to studying and hoping i pass this exam.

X'd since lommy

Thinlómien

06-27-2014, 01:47 PM

Can you say who have done that defending though? I think I have no time to go for checking that - but if you two or one of you had a clearer idea than just "people have been" defending her?I checked people who have made points in her favour are: Mac, Cop, Encai, you, Rikae.

edit: xed with everyone, wow

A Little Green

06-27-2014, 01:47 PM

Again, unless I'm mistaken -

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen – Mac
Rikae – Encai
Kit – Encai (2)
Wyth – Inzil (3)
Inzil – Mac (2)
Gil – Mac (3)

Encaitare

06-27-2014, 01:47 PM

I've explained my reasoning in other posts, but in summary, I have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the Skip bandwagon. Loslote was first and so is less suspicious to me. Kitanna has played very reasonably. Wilwa was the Seer, and Eonwe has not posted enough to give me a strong feeling either way. So that leaves...

++Inziladun

Though if Inzil turns out to be innocent, I will start to wonder about Eonwe.

WythDryden

06-27-2014, 01:47 PM

Another question. If there is a tie in the votes, do both people get lynched?

Aganzir

06-27-2014, 01:48 PM

Another question. If there is a tie in the votes, do both people get lynched?
No, just the first to reach the highest number. With the bear, there's enough death without multiple lynches. ;)

Thinlómien

06-27-2014, 01:49 PM

Wavering between Encai and Kit...

Inzil is a better choice than Mac, but not really too keen on either.

edit: xed with a bunch again

A Little Green

06-27-2014, 01:49 PM

I almost feel like I'd prefer Kit over Mac after all, but bringing in yet another candidate seems a bit silly at this point.

Macalaure

06-27-2014, 01:50 PM

++Inziladun

For reasons stated above.

(And a tiiiny bit of self-preservation.)

WythDryden

06-27-2014, 01:50 PM

No, just the first to reach the highest number. With the bear, there's enough death without multiple lynches. ;)

Ah yes, I see that in the admin thread now too. Thanks!

Nogrod

06-27-2014, 01:51 PM

I was ready to lynch Mac yesterDay before Skip as the wagon looked so spurious (actually Eönwë's late joining was the deciding thing and didn't gain the attention it deserved - fault also on me in that, as I only just remembered it now).

Now I'm a bit torn that we have the same candidates as yesterDay up front... yesterDay I would have felt fine but now it seems many are also sticking to Zil as an easy vote as well.

Blah.

Thinlómien

06-27-2014, 01:51 PM

bah, I think this Mac-Inzil war is leading nowhere.

++Kitanna

edi: xed & fixed highlight

Encaitare

06-27-2014, 01:51 PM

Do I recollect it wrong, but didn't someone make the same point just a moment ago that if X then Lottie would look better?

No time to check or grandiously revise my opinions now, but let that be checked toMorrow...

EDIT: Referring to Encai's post two above this one here...

Could be, I'm not sure. I brought this up not because of Lottie, but because the use of the phrase "fellow lion" in Eonwe's post made me wonder if he was a Lion, and slipped. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt, but you never know.

Eönwë

06-27-2014, 01:51 PM

Is it too late to bring in another person? At the moment I'd most like to vote Boro.

A Little Green

06-27-2014, 01:52 PM

Ah well. I'll keep wondering about him for the rest of the game, otherwise.

++ Macalaure

EDIT: x-ed since my last

Nogrod

06-27-2014, 01:52 PM

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen - Mac
Rikae - Encai
Kitanna - Encai (2)
Wyth -> Zil (3)
Zil -> Mac (2)
Gil -> Mac (3)
Enca -> Zil (4)
Mac -> Inzil (5)
Greenie -> MAc (4)

Macalaure

06-27-2014, 01:53 PM

The people who don't like the choice right now should've voiced their preferences earlier and louder. ;)

Rikae

06-27-2014, 01:53 PM

Oh great. I backed off Inzil because I had the feeling he would be an especially bad person to lynch. Defensive, but not cautious. :(

Nogrod

06-27-2014, 01:54 PM

Bear goes then... I do hope.

++ Mac

Nogrod

06-27-2014, 01:55 PM

Eönwë

06-27-2014, 01:55 PM

They're both kind of suspicious, but the death that I think will give us more information is:

++Mac

edit: x-ed with this page

Volo

06-27-2014, 01:58 PM

Mac is in the lead 6 5.

But

++Inzil

Volo

06-27-2014, 01:59 PM

Last minute votes will be revealing.

Nogrod

06-27-2014, 01:59 PM

Okay. This looks ridiculous right now. Where are you people?

I might have wished to vote Kit.

I checked people who have made points in her favour are: Mac, Cop, Encai, you, Rikae.Let this line be checked toMorrow however it turns out toDay.

EDIT: X'd with Volo x2

Volo

06-27-2014, 02:00 PM

Well, Mac didn't do a last minute reveal, so we didn't go too wrong - or right, I guess.

Nogrod

06-27-2014, 02:01 PM

Well, Mac didn't do a last minute reveal, so we didn't go too wrong - or right, I guess.We'll find out soon enough.

Macalaure

06-27-2014, 02:01 PM

Is it too late to choose trial by battle? :D

Aganzir

06-27-2014, 02:01 PM

Deadline. Shush.

Mac and Inzil both got 6 votes, but because Mac reached his first, he will swing. He was a were-Lannister.

Expect a narration.

Volo

06-27-2014, 02:01 PM

I might have wished to vote Kit.

Realistically? Should have said earlier....

Kath

06-27-2014, 02:32 PM

"I demand trial by combat!" Mac shouted, leaping to his feet and facing the room.

A silence faced him.

Nobody was willing to step forward. Only a crazed Lannister would make such a request. He was dead already by the rules of the inn. Who would be mad enough to take him on?

There was a quiet cough. Everybody turned to look at Volo.

"Erm," he said, "I am willing to fight for you, Mac, even if I fear it is too late!"

“I, too, am willing to fight!” Inzil cried, spurred on by Volo.

“Oh thank the gods, any of them.” Volo exclaimed with relief. “You go ahead, Inzil. I really didn’t want to face this madman. He has the bearing of a knight and would probably cut me in two!”

Inzil, wrong-footed and frankly horrified at this turn of events, hesitantly stepped forwards.

"Well then, sir," said Mac stiffly, "I have no chance but to accept your challenge. May the gods decide which of us is true at heart, although I am personally sure they will find your loyalty to your house lacking."

"Funny, sir, I could have said the same of you," said Inzil.

"Traitor," coughed Mac under his breath.

"Lannister," Inzil coughed back, taking down the sword that had been hanging over the bar.

Mac was now the one to look worried. He had no weapon, and it didn’t look like anyone in the inn was about to give him one. Even if they had, he could hardly wield it with his greyscale-infected hand. Inzil took up a fighting stance and began to advance on Mac. Looking around wildly, Mac realised he had nowhere to run, nowhere to hide. This was it. With a vicious snarl, he leaped at Inzil, transforming into a huge, auburn lion as he did so.

"Sir, that is ungentlemanly of you!" Inzil cried and leaped aside.

"CHEATING!" echoed in the Inn.

Inzil and what had been Mac Connington circled each other, Inzil brandishing his sword. Mac growled and snarled but couldn't touch Inzil, who swung the sword aggressively every time Mac tried to advance. The lion’s advances became sloppy as his anger grew, and in a final desperate attempt to claw Inzil’s face off, he overreached himself and left himself open to Inzil’s blade. With a whispering slide of metal through skin, the sword found its home in Mac’s fur covered chest.

"Behold! The gods have judged and found Mac guilty!" Inzil cried, brandishing the bloody sword.

"Hear, hear!" yelled the crowd.

Light-hearted, the patrons retreated to their beds.

~ ~ ~

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - murdered by lions on Night 2
Macalaure - Lannister lion - stabbed through on Day 2

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Kitanna - illiterate peasant
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
Nerwen - house Martell
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit x
Nogrod - house Swann
Colin "Volo" Mute - house (Euron) Greyjoy
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

~ ~ ~

Night has begun!

Nightly creatures may begin their activities.

Kath

06-28-2014, 02:00 PM

Nerwen’s sleep, made peaceful after the successful identification of a lion, was suddenly disturbed when her bed was jolted part way across the floor of her bedroom. Sitting up in shock, she gathered the bedclothes around her, as if they would offer protection against what was coming. In the dark, a shadow loomed.

“”Well, Bear?” Nerwen challenged, unwilling to go down without a fight. “Why have you chosen me to die?”

“Me Bear.” Came the reply from the dark. “You meat. You work it out.”

“What, no deep political motivations? No deep seated and long held hatred of my house? No personal investment in my death?” Nerwen asked, irritated. “I must say, that’s rather insulting! To be eaten is bad enough but for you not to even have a – ”

With a roll of its eyes that was all but audible, the bear interrupted Nerwen’s ranting. A giant paw ripped off her mouth in one massive swipe, and with a grunt of satisfaction the bear quickly set to gobbling up what was left of the representative of House Martell.

**

Golden sunlight flickered gently through the windows of the inn, lighting soft fur. This morning, though, the lions were not sleeping. During the Night they had mourned the death of their fellow and had decided the best way to comfort each other was to wallow in the blood of an innocent customer.

“Who will give us the most pleasure to murder?” The silver-white lioness asked her partner. “This needs to taste like revenge.”

“What about a Greyjoy?” Replied the golden lioness. “Their blood should taste of tears – salt and pain.”

“That Volo? Yes. He was ready to take a sword to our darling Mac as well, he definitely deserves to die.”

Stalking through the inn, the lions found Volo’s room and wasted no time in taking their silent but deadly vengeance.

The rest of the patrons found his mutilated body the next morning. Parts of it were still in his room, parts scattered down the stairs, parts flung around the bar, and one part, his eye-less and tongue-less head, stood upon the counter, a grim reminder of what was in store for them if they did not succeed.

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - murdered by lions on Night 2
Macalaure - Lannister lion - stabbed through on Day 2
Nerwen – ordo – interrupted by bear on Night 3
Volo – ordo – ripped apart by lions on Night 3

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Kitanna - illiterate peasant
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit x
Nogrod - house Swann
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

~ ~ ~

Day has now begun.

Inziladun

06-28-2014, 03:10 PM

So now I know what giving Mac the benefit of the doubt gets me.

That's one Lion down, anyway. Interesting kills from the Bear and Lions. I would expect at this point the Bear would be focused on taking out Lions. Did Nerwen look that bad? As for Volo, I don't remember seeing anything in particular that might have made him an inviting target.

Encaitare

06-28-2014, 03:26 PM

Just wanted to pop in to say that my posting will be limited for most of toDay, as I am at a family gathering for the weekend. I will be reading and following along as much as I can, but my posts will be brief, if they happen at all.

WythDryden

06-28-2014, 03:46 PM

Now this is an interesting point. Volo is the last to vote/votes for Inzil at 2 minutes before the deadline, and says this one minute before the deadline:

Last minute votes will be revealing.

His vote didn't change the outcome, but did bring it to an even number of votes between the two. It's possible he voted the way he did to leave a clue, and his post certainly makes it sound that way. However, it could also be framing by the lions. Must investigate further.

Nogrod

06-28-2014, 03:58 PM

Sure. Interesting kills. Especially picking up Volo by the lions.

Both merit a closer look to begin with.

Also, it has been a long time we've had such a big game and the dynamics really look different from a basic 15-player (or smaller) village. I kind of haven't given that a real thought yet, but I think we should all consider that as well.

Nogrod

06-28-2014, 04:20 PM

Before going any further with Volo's posts the first one (#36) actually gives me an idea worth mentioning.

So he posts a link with a name "mild spoiler" - and there is a meme of Jaqen H'gar (to those not familiar with the SOIAF characters, he's a kind of "shapechanger" - and one who delivered kills in secret) saying "A man walks into a bar"...

Did the lions think he made an irresponsible but fun hint about him being the bear aka. someone who changes shape and kills in the dark?

It might be Volo was toying with that kind of false revelation / hint-thingy - or how else to interpret that kind of post - but it is also true the lions picked him to kill last Night...

So what does that tell of our lions that they take that kind of hinting seriously enough to act on them? Or that they might be after the Bear in the first place? Or do they only try to make us think they're that desperate?

Inziladun

06-28-2014, 04:21 PM

His vote didn't change the outcome, but did bring it to an even number of votes between the two. It's possible he voted the way he did to leave a clue, and his post certainly makes it sound that way. However, it could also be framing by the lions. Must investigate further.

I'm not sure what sort of clue might have been there. He obviously didn't have any special knowledge of the situation.

Also, it has been a long time we've had such a big game and the dynamics really look different from a basic 15-player (or smaller) village. I kind of haven't given that a real thought yet, but I think we should all consider that as well.

Logically, it's easier to lie low with more players, letting the loud ones get attention.

x'd with Nog

Inziladun

06-28-2014, 04:26 PM

It might be Volo was toying with that kind of false revelation / hint-thingy - or how else to interpret that kind of post - but it is also true the lions picked him to kill last Night...

So what does that tell of our lions that they take that kind of hinting seriously enough to act on them? Or that they might be after the Bear in the first place? Or do they only try to make us think they're that desperate?

Hm. One wouldn't think the Bear would give any sort of clue. It's counterproductive. Would the Lions have thought the real Bear that careless?

Kitanna

06-28-2014, 04:29 PM

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen - Mac
Rikae - Encai
Kitanna - Encai (2)
Wyth -> Zil (3)
Zil -> Mac (2)
Gil -> Mac (3)
Enca -> Zil (4)
Mac -> Inzil (5)
Greenie -> Mac (4)
Lommy -> Kitanna
Nog -> Mac (5)
I'll laugh if Zil and Mac are both lions. Because both have had bandwagons D1 & D2 and now Mac is dead a lion. :eek:
I honestly thought he was a lover.

Originally Posted by WythDryden View Post
His vote didn't change the outcome, but did bring it to an even number of votes between the two. It's possible he voted the way he did to leave a clue, and his post certainly makes it sound that way. However, it could also be framing by the lions. Must investigate further.
I'm not sure what sort of clue might have been there. He obviously didn't have any special knowledge of the situation.
I took his "last minute votes will be revealing" to mean something along the lines of "who is going to try to save Mac?" He made that post and Mac was in the lead. Though Volo voted Zil, tying them at 6 each, so I don't know if that can even be assumed of the statement.

Gil-Galad

06-28-2014, 04:33 PM

Yesterday was a fairly quiet day, but man I was glad that in the vote-war Mac was a lion. It was a close vote, even with Mac assuming he was in the clear. I would look more closely at the Zil voters, seeing as they might be Lions.

I was hoping that the night kills would bag us a lion, instead it was two rather surprising kills in the sense that Volo and Nerwen weren't really aggressive in their posts and not that involved.

x,d since zill

WythDryden

06-28-2014, 04:47 PM

I'm not sure what sort of clue might have been there. He obviously didn't have any special knowledge of the situation.

Good point. I got ahead of myself and forgot that it'd be made clear if they were a gifted of some sort, and I looked back at the post to see that he is labelled ordo.

I took his "last minute votes will be revealing" to mean something along the lines of "who is going to try to save Mac?" He made that post and Mac was in the lead. Though Volo voted Zil, tying them at 6 each, so I don't know if that can even be assumed of the statement.

That's a good angle I hadn't considered. Though, with only one minute to spare and most of the people who had been active yesterDay had already voted at that point, there wasn't much time left for someone jump in to save him necessarily. Also, if they had it's pretty flashy and puts them in a position to be suspected. The same could've possibly been made for Volo himself if hadn't been killed in the night revealing his identity.

Nogrod

06-28-2014, 05:08 PM

Good point. I got ahead of myself and forgot that it'd be made clear if they were a gifted of some sort, and I looked back at the post to see that he is labelled ordo.And as our Seer is dead and gone (and our ranger hasn't saved anyone), so there is none with any special knoweldge about anymore the lions could have gone after trying to read hints from the posting on D1 & D2 - well the lovers to be sure, but yeah... that's the stinger - did they think him the Bear or not?

As I said - and Inzil agreed - it would be quite reckless from a Bear to go on doing that kind of hinting... but why kill him then?

Did the lions think him the hunter who tried to lure them into attacking him at Night and though they'd better take their chances with the hunter now than later when the hunter might become a more formidable threat?

Anyway. Volo talked about the lovers (and the bear especially) a lot and insisted we should forge an alliance with them. He even said: “I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with”. :)

Late yesterDay he argued though, that Mac is the Bear and said we should not lynch the Bear, and added also that Mac had contributed (so it's not anymore a reason to not lynch a Bear but not lynch Mac) - then he also tried to avoid the lynching of Mac in practise by his vote - and added these:
Last minute votes will be revealing.

Well, Mac didn't do a last minute reveal, so we didn't go too wrong - or right, I guess.So the lions killed the one who tried to save one of them?

There is something fishy in here, but I can't say what.

What is it I have forgotten?

Rikae

06-28-2014, 05:20 PM

Well, that was lucky - I say lucky, because I, and I think most, thought Mac was "just" a bear. I'm kind of sad to see him go, though - he seemed so happy to be playing again (I thought it might have been in part because of a special role).

I imagine the race between Mac and Inzil will be revealing, either with lion-on-lion or some desperate jumping on the Inzil-wagon, and I want to take a close look at it later tonight or tomorrow; right now I don't have much time. I still don't think Gal was a suspected seer, since others went after Mac more than she did. Volo might have been - or the meme might have made him look like a bear or hunter. I'm not sure why the lions would be going after hunter-hints, especially when this hunter is less dangerous to them than most with a 50% chance to do nothing, but maybe they have nothing better to go on.

Nerwen was somewhat suspected, as was Wilwa. Perhaps the bear is trying to kill lions after all, but we can't be sure of that. The lovers may just be going for kills they think will throw the village off their trail in some way. I'll have to give this more thought.

Kitanna

06-28-2014, 05:25 PM

Looking at Nerwen first, then Volo

I'm focusing on yesterday's posts for right now.

Nerwen
Her first post was a recap of Wilwa, didn't really give much on her own thoughts.
Her next post was a recap of Galadriel.

After her recaps she gets into what she actually thought of the Night 2 kills.
No idea, really– she was killed by the Bear, whose motivations are hard to guess at this point. Certainly, though, her preoccupation with that role was very noteworthy yesterDay (even if it seemed to begin as IC posting). I would say that (from my list at #217), scenarios #1, #2 and #3 are all quite possible, while #4 is very unlikely, unless our Bear and Maiden are a nervous pair indeed. (Can’t comment on #5 for reasons already stated.)

Unfortunately I don’t think she left any really clear indication as to whom she actually did dream (if of a baddie, it would surely be Mac as the Bear).
This is also puzzling. As a matter of principle, the player the wolves most want to kill is always the Seer (unless they’re cubs who don’t know any better). However, she in fact said little that seemed obviously Seer-ish, leading me to point out the same thing I did last game: sometimes wolves have so little lead to the Seer early in the game that they are forced to choose the kill for other reasons entirely (yes, I was a wolf that game– but it was also quite true, as you may recall). For this reason, I think the ideas that she might have been killed as a false trail/Targaryen/general “special role” all have merit.

Again, though *if* she was killed as a “Seer” her supposed dreamed villain (if any) would be Mac or Volo (possibly Wyth if we accept Mac's idea that the Lions took her #6 joke-post as a hint).

It is interesting how Mac shows up as a possible suspect based on both kills– yet, the reasons are contradictory. It can’t very well be both that the Lovers killed Wilwa for thinking him the Bear, while the the Lions killed G55 for thinking him a Lion. Unless the Lions had (correctly) guessed Mac to be the Bear while (mistakenly) thinking “Seer” Galadriel had dreamed him. (Yeah, I’m thinking this out as I go along.)
Seeing as Mac was a lion, from this post I don't see the lovers concluding Nerwen was also a lion and attacking her based on it.
Interesting. I was just reading through yesterDay, and Lommy's explanation of how the Lions and Lovers could join forces for mutual profit actually struck me as being rather suspicious. Not “String ‘er up!” suspicious, but certainly eyebrow-raising. I mean, yes, it’s something an innocent might legitimately bring up too– but I wouldn’t myself dismiss it just on the grounds of being “too risky”.

Her next major post is a look at Skip. Concluding with this:
Rikae was the first to express actual suspicion on skip, then later got cold feet, suspected people for suspecting him and voted someone else. (Bear in mind that known innocent G55 did much the same thing.)

Zil and Kit kept on arguing against skip'splan after there seemed to me much point to doing so– it was clear by then that it wasn’t going to gain any support. (Mind you skip just wouldn’t back down– people can develop tunnel-vision in such cases.) Zil's vote (or the reasons for it) also strikes me as a little too easy.

Mac, as noted, suddenly seems almost to agree with skip's plan for no real reason. Why? A baddie suddenly seeing a chance to dispose of the hunter?

Lommy casts suspicion on the skip-voters, while still leaving herself the option of voting him (see #121)
Given that Eomer had expressed doubt of both the skip and Mac wagons, I don't think it's surprising he tried to keep out of them; this strikes me as a rather forced reason for voting him.

She ended up voting for Mac, which was no real surprise. She mentioned him the most. She was also the first to vote him. I'm actually surprised the lions didn't target her.
She didn't mention anyone else as suspicious enough to be vote worthy (She made some mention of Zil, Eomer, Rikae, and me). Lommy was the only one she made any inclination toward guilt. Even then it was only "certainly eyebrow-raising", but enough for Nerwen to vote her.

The best theories I can come up with on why the lovers went after Nerwen are
1) Mac fell under suspicion D1, so maybe the lovers thought Nerwen was a lion throwing her teammate under the bus in an attempt to look good and helpful to the village.
2) The lovers have chosen an alliance and it isn't in favor of the village.

Volo
In his first D2 post he said he believed the lovers were actually trying to kill a lion.
I'm inclined to think that G55's change of playing style (based on what you say), which seemed erratic and outspoken to me yesterDay, is something which was interpreted as not-Ordo. My intuition was Lion. For the Lions, it's obviously Crow, 3idCrow (likely), Targaryen, Bear or Maiden.
He defended his Galadriel vote a few times when questioned.

Some suspect Mac to be the Bear, or the Maiden perhaps. I have had a similar suspicion since some point yesterDay, when we began the Targaryen revelation stuff. However a) I would prefer not to lynch the Bear. b) Mac has contributed a lot.
The problem with this kind of thinking is that it might give a LionMac a free pass. However, I'll give Mac the benefit of doubt for now.

Then of course his Zil vote and cryptic last statement.

Volo was talked about more than he actually talked. He was talked about because Galadriel mentioned him and Mac, thus sparking the discussion that "did the lions think she dreamed one of them?" With Mac dead maybe Volo was attacked because it would be harder to use that same logic again and get Volo lynched D3? Volo, though talked about a lot, didn't actually receive any votes.
Or maybe they read his cryptic message as a hint. Nog pointed out a GoT reference from early D1, saying
Did the lions think he made an irresponsible but fun hint about him being the bear aka. someone who changes shape and kills in the dark?
It's not a terrible theory. Though I don't know how likely it is. Maybe they thought he was ranger or hunter. That last statement was too odd to have gone unnoticed, and if Volo was alive I would be wondering myself if he wasn't playing a gifted role.

Boromir88

06-28-2014, 05:29 PM

I'm not sure what sort of clue might have been there. He obviously didn't have any special knowledge of the situation.
B

*A familiar voice re-emerges out of the shadows and speaks as if his absence was never noticed. But in truth was he ever absent?*

But the lions who killed him wouldn't have known he was an ordo when they killed him last night. Obviously they wouldn't fear he had any special knowledge with the seer gone, but either they killed him to set you up as a lynch candidate today or you're hoping no one starts suspecting some lion-on-lion voting. Set up an early kinslaying to make one of you look better? Convenient the seer isn't in the way anymore to check. Also even more convenient it was the bear that got wilwa.

Even I must admit I laughed at Wyth's observation about my disappearance yesterday.

Nogrod

06-28-2014, 05:35 PM

Voting Day2

Cop – Eomer
Eomer – Inzil
Lottie – Inzil (2)
Nerwen - Mac
Rikae - Encai
Kitanna - Encai (2)
Wyth -> Inzil (3)
Zil -> Mac (2)
Gil -> Mac (3)
Enca -> Inzil (4)
Mac -> Inzil (5)
Greenie -> Mac (4)
Lommy -> Kitanna
Nog -> Mac (5)
Eönwë -> Mac (6)
Volo -> Inzil (6)

Things I think can be read from the voting-tally...

Eönwë most probably isn't a lion. That would have been totally unnecessary from him compared to fex. failing to vote or voting someone else and hoping for the best.

I also find it hard to think Greenie would be in cahoots with Mac looking at the instrumental nature of her vote on Mac.

Gil could of course be a Lannister giving a lion-on-lion vote - but I'd not put that high on my list of probabilities unless I had other reasons to believe it to be so. Zil again could have been trying to rid himself of suspicion he had gathered quite a lot and voted for a mate to clean his image... but that also, I think requires other information or reasons to suspect him than the vote.

But if there was someone who tried to save Mac (on top of Mac himself and now known innocent Volo), then that person is Encaitare. Her vote-placement looks pretty bad indeed.

Lommy's vote is a kind of "washing my hands from this mess" -vote. It could be both ways: a frustrated innocent unhappy with the options given or a frustrated lion trying to escape bad choices...

EDIT: X'd with the three above

Inziladun

06-28-2014, 05:47 PM

The best theories I can come up with on why the lovers went after Nerwen are
1) Mac fell under suspicion D1, so maybe the lovers thought Nerwen was a lion throwing her teammate under the bus in an attempt to look good and helpful to the village.
2) The lovers have chosen an alliance and it isn't in favor of the village.

The first is the more likely. The numbers favor the village, and the Lovers are going to ally themselves with the side the most likely to win.

Maybe they thought he was ranger or hunter. That last statement was too odd to have gone unnoticed, and if Volo was alive I would be wondering myself if he wasn't playing a gifted role.

It's possible. But as Nog pointed out, Volo might have come in for some suspicion toDay for potentially trying to save Mac, so if your scenario is true, there must have been some pretty strong Gifted vibes around him.

[I]But the lions who killed him wouldn't have known he was an ordo when they killed him last night. Obviously they wouldn't fear he had any special knowledge with the seer gone, but either they killed him to set you up as a lynch candidate today or you're hoping no one starts suspecting some lion-on-lion voting.

Wyth was trying to say that Volo's "clue" might have some meaning for us toDay. You're misunderstanding, or deliberately misrepresenting.

Loslote

06-28-2014, 05:52 PM

What are the lions (and bear) trying to gain from their kills at this point in the game? There is no seer to try to find. Rangers are difficult to catch until after they've revealed, so the lions could only have tried to spot general "gifted vibes" which might have also pointed to a hunter (who they probably don't want to kill at this point) or a lover (who they also probably don't want to kill, since they've been benefiting from the second Night-kill thus far. So would they try to kill people who are giving off gifted vibes? I don't know that the risks are worth the reward of killing the Ranger, especially not with the second Night-kill lessening the impact of a successful Ranger-save.

The lions are also not killing people who are suspecting them. That would be a giant neon sign pointing directly at them. So what are their options at this point? They could either try to frame someone - kill someone who heavily suspected another innocent and try to get that innocent lynched because of it - or they could be killing people who have not said much about them and are about as much of a no-trace kill as you can get at this point in the game. This would be an especially helpful strategy if they had not fallen under suspicion yet, and wanted to keep their heads down and wait for the village to trim itself down further. I would suspect that that's what happened with Volo and Nerwen, which would mean that Zil is probably not a lion or a lover after all and that Lommy, Kit, and Rikae are also not lovers.

Of course, that's assuming the lions (and bear) are trying to keep their heads down, which might be a completely wrong guess. But if Volo was killed in an attempt to kill the suspicion against Zil, there were plenty of other people who had been more vocal in their distrust of him and who would have served that purpose better. As for the people Nerwen suspected, only Kit had really been suspected by anyone else, and in Kit's case, Nog or Lommy both suspected her more vocally than [b]Nerwen[b] had, so that doesn't really work either. I would guess that Volo did not suspect any lions and that Nerwen did not suspect the bear or his lover.

EDIT: xed since Boro

Inziladun

06-28-2014, 06:02 PM

Boromir88

06-28-2014, 06:15 PM

Lommy's vote is a kind of "washing my hands from this mess" -vote. It could be both ways: a frustrated innocent unhappy with the options given or a frustrated lion trying to escape bad choices...

Now that's interesting, the read I get off of Lommy's posts yesterday is the same, trying to turn focus off of Mac and Inzil. Could be she's an innocent who thought 2 other innocents were going after each other...it's not like we're unfamiliar with those situations. What does an innocent Lommy gain by casting a "washing my hands from this mess" vote? Other than pumping up her honour in staying out of a mess between two innocents. But we know it's a fact one of them was a lion.

How would a Lannister-Lommy vote, I wonder?...I mean in that situation where it seems clear between either Inzil or Mac. Why not protect herself and throw Mac under the bus? Or if she feels family actually means something, how could she vote for a fellow lion? If that's the case, why not try to help Mac by voting and likely getting Inzil lynched? Unless she already painted herself into a corner earlier in the day...when she declared Inzil has been acting like a normal Inzil:

Inzil - people keep suspecting him but I think he looks the same as always. Which of course doesn't mean anything since he's probably been wolf half of the games I've played in.

She can't vote for Inzil...not after having made those statements. Or well she could have, but she couldn't without arousing suspicions that she's trying to save Mac. So she does the only thing she can do...try to argue Mac vs Inzil will lead us no where and we should drop it to look some place else.

WythDryden

06-28-2014, 07:05 PM

She ended up voting for Mac, which was no real surprise. She mentioned him the most. She was also the first to vote him. I'm actually surprised the lions didn't target her.

We don't know that the lions DIDN'T target her, we just know the bear got there first if they did.

Kitanna

06-28-2014, 07:15 PM

We don't know that the lions DIDN'T target her, we just know the bear got there first if they did.

I don't see anything in the rules saying if the same person is targeted one team has to pick a new kill. I figured that just meant only one kill. I guess picking a new kill is always a possibilty. Can a moddess clarify?

Addendum: I'm basing my assumption on the fact if the ranger protects someone the lions/bear don't pick a new victim. So why would the lions/bears get a second pick just cause the other got there first?

Encaitare

06-28-2014, 11:10 PM

I've read through the thread thus far... It's hard to see much in the way of clues from the deaths. It seems to me that the Lions, or the Lovers, or both, were trying to lay low.

I am feeling more at ease about Inzil now, as it would be a very transparent move for the Lions to kill Volo after he brought Inzil up to tie 6-6 with Mac. I think Inzil is smarter than that. That doesn't mean he can't be a Lover, but he feels less Lionish to me now.

Now to address this:

But if there was someone who tried to save Mac (on top of Mac himself and now known innocent Volo), then that person is Encaitare. Her vote-placement looks pretty bad indeed.

I had said throughout the Day that Inzil was one of my top suspects, and laid out my reasoning for choosing him over the others. In the final minutes before the deadline, there were many posts coming in quickly, so my vote did cross-post with the three votes before mine.

As I said, I'm less worried about Inzil now, but am wondering if one of the Skip voters I considered less Lionish should be on my radar now. My posting will be limited again tomorrow, but I'll try to follow along as best I can.

Aganzir

06-29-2014, 04:01 AM

I don't see anything in the rules saying if the same person is targeted one team has to pick a new kill. I figured that just meant only one kill. I guess picking a new kill is always a possibilty. Can a moddess clarify?
Just one kill. (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?p=692511#post692511)

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 04:28 AM

I had said throughout the Day that Inzil was one of my top suspects, and laid out my reasoning for choosing him over the others. In the final minutes before the deadline, there were many posts coming in quickly, so my vote did cross-post with the three votes before mine.Fair enough. There seems to be two for Mac and one for Inzil crossing your vote-post - which kind of makes it look less dubious.

Boro brings up fair points on Lommy's vote. Although I think a Lannister-Lommy could have voted Inzil even after she said of him: people keep suspecting him but I think he looks the same as always. Which of course doesn't mean anything since he's probably been wolf half of the games I've played in.I mean she could just have said, that it seems these two (Mac and Inzil) are those of whom one is to be lynched, and of the two she doesn't actually think are lions she'd hold Inzil’s the most likely candidate.

The nasty thing from the POV of Lommy sure is - were she innocent or a lion - that her vote that late in the line sure draws attention. And she must have known that already when she made it. So why didn't she choose a less controversial vote? (Well, at least I would have seen taking sides between Mac - Zil less controversial.)

Boromir88

06-29-2014, 05:16 AM

If Kit's a lion I'll flay myself...

Just got super busy at work, but the short of it
1) she's been just vocal enough to appear helpful, but not so vocal as to draw too much attention
2) she seemed very chummy D1, especially with Eomer
3) her vote for Nogrod looked very safe to me

These are reasons a blind know-nothing (but well intentioned) person has to give...there's no other choice when you truly have no special knowledge. It's the same reasons Skip's vote, as much as I didn't agree with the read he got of Gil, looked innocent.

Lions have special knowledge, they can manipulate the lynch, use rivalries and houses against each other. There is far more scheming and reasons behind their voting (of course the best lions will hide their intentions well)...Point being, if Kit is a wolf, trying to get attention off of her mate Mac, she could have done a much better job than giving a flimsy reasoned vote to try to set up Enca as another choice.

I'm saying lions were fully involved in that Mac-Inzil showdown yesterday...

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 05:19 AM

HAha. On specualting Lommy's vote yesterDay... she herself even said this Inzil is a better choice than Mac, but not really too keen on either.

Boromir88

06-29-2014, 05:21 AM

Oh right...

*vanishes*

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 05:38 AM

So was Lommy preparing the ground to vote Inzil to save her mate but then thought it too risky and decided to back off from the whole choice?

Looking back a few pages I found little worth referring, but maybe something.

Lottie looks pretty good pressing Mac into defence with some tough suspicion - and her post toDay was clear and reasonable. The two things combined make me think a whole lot better about her.

Lottie also suspects Mac and Inzil of lackluster suspicion - like a lion-on-lion suspicion... That is followed by a curious Mac suspecting Inzil post that isn't far from being exactly lackluster - and ending up with: “Defend yourself, sir!” + smilie.

Kitanna seems to try and ease pressure on Mac in a careful fashion while making a slip worthy of comparison with Mac's own slip...

It would be funny if we had a game where two lions gave themselves away with classical slips of tongue! :cool:

Lommy had been talking about people rushing to defend Kit from left and right the whole game even if she hadn't been suspected heavily at all. Answering my query about who those would have been she gave a list which is as follows: Mac, Cop, Encai, Nog, Rikae.

Now Mac was a lion - but Kit tried to run for Encai I myself had been suspecting for other reasons. And Lommy was hoping to vote for Kit or Encai, not willing to vote Mac. Very interesting mess indeed!

Vanishing too for a while...

Inziladun

06-29-2014, 06:04 AM

Lottie looks pretty good pressing Mac into defence with some tough suspicion - and her post toDay was clear and reasonable. The two things combined make me think a whole lot better about her.

Lottie also suspects Mac and Inzil of lackluster suspicion - like a lion-on-lion suspicion... That is followed by a curious Mac suspecting Inzil post that isn't far from being exactly lackluster - and ending up with: “Defend yourself, sir!” + smilie.

I feel fairly good about Lottie at this point.
That deal from Mac was weird, and a bit frustrating. I had already given reasons for my vote on skip, but he kept on about it (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=692504&postcount=294).

Kitanna seems to try and ease pressure on Mac in a careful fashion while making a slip worthy of comparison with Mac's own slip...

It would be funny if we had a game where two lions gave themselves away with classical slips of tongue! :cool:

Kit has been a concern for me, mainly due to the safe votes on two Days. It would be a laugh if she was a Lion. Had I seen Mac's slip Day 1 in time I could have voted for him, but I would have also thought 'can it really be that easy?' :rolleyes:

Very interesting mess indeed!

Mess is the right word. I still think the bandwagon on me was an effort to get pressure off Mac. Eomer and Lottie were the first two votes for me, but I do think better of Lottie.

Coppermirror

06-29-2014, 06:06 AM

I'm here; haven't read up on what's been going on toDay yet. Going to start by analysing Maclion on Days 1 and 2, then I'll look at toDay. I'll probably be here for the next 2 hours, the next 3 if things take longer than expected, and 4 if I'm an idiot who's going to stay up until 4AM.

Thinlómien

06-29-2014, 06:16 AM

Maybe the wolves killed Volo to baffle us. I can't think of a reason why they'd go for him, because at least to me Volo didn't give any gifted vibes, and almost as little bearish vibes. Maybe Nogrod has a point though and the wolves thought Volo was a bear/lover because of his pro-bear attitude?

Our best lead toDay, however, is definitely not Volo but Mac. I'm personally quite impressed by the fact that he managed to convince half of the village (yours truly included) that he's the werebear. Since he was a wolf, though, we have a nice bunch of data to analyze to see who might be his fellows. I'll get to that at some point today.

Why is Kitanna again trying to steer the discussion to the lovers' motivations instead of those of the wolves' by lengthily analyzing Nerwen? This combined with the fact that Mac was one of the ones to side with her yesterDay looks very fishy to me.

And Boro has reappeared? :eek: Good.

But if there was someone who tried to save Mac (on top of Mac himself and now known innocent Volo), then that person is Encaitare. Her vote-placement looks pretty bad indeed.Agreed. That combined with her non-committal posting doesn't really look too good to me.

So she does the only thing she can do...try to argue Mac vs Inzil will lead us no where and we should drop it to look some place else.Well I'm glad you guys didn't listen to me, because Mac vs Inzil did definitely lead somewhere. (I'm not entirely sure people should listen to me at all in this game, given that I managed to vote the seer on Day1. :rolleyes: ) That said, I didn't honestly think Mac with his odd chaotic behavior would be a wolf, rather the werebear or an ordo, and lynching the werebear when all the wolves were still alive wasn't my choice number one. As I didn't find Inzil particularly suspicious either, what should I have done? When I voted, there were still quite a few people who hadn't voted yet, many of whom suspected for example Kitanna whom I found and still find very fishy. (And before we know her role, you can't say she would've been any worse a choice, unless you have more information than you should.)

Point being, if Kit is a wolf, trying to get attention off of her mate Mac, she could have done a much better job than giving a flimsy reasoned vote to try to set up Enca as another choice.Flimsy-reasoned? As far as I recall, quite many people were finding Enca suspicious, and she even got a couple of more votes.

Okay, so either Boro and Kit are lovers, or Borowolf is going a bit too far in latching onto Kit who he knows is innocent. This does not fit with my theory that Wilwa dreamt of innocent!Boro though. But seriously, I don't understand at all why Boro has suddenly decided to become Kitanna's knight in shining armour, again when really hasn't been that much suspicion against her. (Notable also that he attacks me, the person who has probably suspected Kitanna the most.)

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-29-2014, 06:30 AM

Mac’s almost perfunctory suspicion of Inzil, on Day 1, has been commented on. He also softly suspects Lommy early in Day 1, in #38.

(Volo comment in #43 about “sign language.” Ordo trying to get attention away from the gifted? Noble, and successful, if so.)

Onto Mac again:

#70: Kit, Lommy and Inzil all lined up as slightly suspicious.

#96 puts Lommy back a bit on the suspicion list. Inzil and Kit at top with Boro.

#114 is (now) an obvious lion post, as he’s ‘feeling better’ about Gala (known innocent) and Eomer (I know I’m innocent, so this is only striking to me). A chummy post designed to get us two onside, which may well have worked because I thought Mac was probably innocent right up until the lynch. Gala voted for him, though, and paid for it that night.

Votes for Inzil, who has been my top suspect for two days. Now I am really unsure about this. Inzil had 1 vote and Skip had 5. Still plenty votes still to come and it was conceivable the inn would have preferred to push Inzil ahead of Skip at that stage. Why didn’t he vote for Wilwa, who was suspicious for her identical vote (for Skip)? Had he backed himself into a corner by already talking about his lion-buddy earlier? Or is Zil simply innocent?

Greenie and Nogrod look particularly good for their late votes for Mac, although they’re obviously clever and experienced enough to be pulling the wool over my eyes. It’s a long shot, though, surely…

Mac analyses Day 1’s votes in #197. Lots to dig into here, and everyone should probably have a look at it.

#211 – this interaction plus Wyth’s vote for Mac make Wyth seem innocent. It doesn’t sound planned (obviously I could be wrong here).

#270 is where Mac really sets himself up against Inzil.

#274 is another big suspicion list. Interesting reading.

---------

Inzil's interaction with Mac does seem a bit planned to me, and I suspect Inzil anyway for independent reasons; however, simplest answer is surely that Inzil is probably no lion.

:confused:

I'm gonna go ahead and say that Wyth, Nog and Green are not lions either.

Rikae

06-29-2014, 06:53 AM

So, no vote from Boro yesterDay?

A Little Green

06-29-2014, 07:54 AM

Kitanna seems to try and ease pressure on Mac in a careful fashion while making a slip worthy of comparison with Mac's own slip...

It would be funny if we had a game where two lions gave themselves away with classical slips of tongue!That's basically what I'm thinking - could it be that easy?

I'd love to do some analysis of voting, as well as take a closer look at Kitanna. Also, Boro is acting weird.

A Little Green

06-29-2014, 08:09 AM

Another thing: very curious about the Volo kill. He would have been an easy target for suspicion toDay with his vote that could have been interpreted as trying to save Mac. I agree with Nog or whoever it was who said that the theory of his possible "bear hint" doesn't make much sense; why on earth would the lions think the bear left a hint?

Rikae

06-29-2014, 08:17 AM

Mac the demon monkey

Day One

#27 IC post, with some complaining about the lack of a “sense of urgency”.
Also:
Wilwa of House Mormont gives good advice concerning lovers and hunter. I agree. Galadriel the wildling adds some sense, too, but Inzil of House Tully's comments on Wilwa's points seem more looking-to-be-helpful rather than actually helpful to me. Then again, Encai finds him helpful, so maybe I'm too eager to find something suspicious in what little has been posted so far.

This struck me as weirdly wishy-washy at the time and now even more so.

#38 Asking for clarification on the Targ, then does his fake Targ reveal.

Aside from this, while I do agree that Nerwen's post was a bit suspicious, Lommy seemed a bit over-eager to jump on it.

#40 reacts to Volo's joke, says no one but a cobbler would false reveal as a Targ who survived a kill.

#70 Infamous “numbers may be on your side” to skip.
Casts mild suspicion at Wilwa for her focus on the lovers, and this about Kitanna:
This one seems fishy, too. "I don't like the lovers, but I don't want to do anything about it" - Subtly leading the inn towards looking for lovers more than looking for wolves, while keeping their own hands clean. Don't like it.

Wishy-washy suspicion on Lommy's “worth keeping in mind” (about bear-lion alliances):
This would make me suspicious as well, for the same reasons as above. "The lovers are not as bad as I said before, but they're still very bad". The thing is, would a wolf state it in all-bold?

At the time, I thought Lommy's post looked questionable myself, and wondered why Mac was suspecting and excusing it in one breath.
This in response to Inzil's “Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you. “.
This coming in response to the slightest early Day One suspicion? Woah, there.

That is kind of odd, seems a little like an exaggerated response.

#80 Responds to me about the bear, arguing against going after him.

#92 Continues defending his “going after the bear is fishy” stuff, this time to Wilwa.

#96 List post:
Blissfully absent:
Eonwe
Green Lommyhands

New to the game / haven't played with before (as far as I'm aware), so vote-exempt for now:
Loslote, Wyth, Copper (not too concerned about either of them at this point)

Seem innocent at the moment:
Encai (feels good)
Wilwa (been disagreeing with her, but she sounds innocent)
Rikae (playful Rikae is ordo-Rikae, or so I'd like to think)
Volo (feels good, too)
Gil (same)

No clue either way, really:
Lommy Greenhands (mostly fine, but just too much bear-talk overall)
Nerwen (does seem alright, but only a fool trusts Nerwen)
Galadriel (no real feeling either way)
Eomer (same here)
Nogrod (hasn't said enough yet)
Sally (hasn't said much either)
Skip (said plenty, but I don't know what to do with him)

Somewhat fishy:
Inzil (seems nervous)
Kitanna (really just this one line I pointed out earlier, very flimsy suspicion)
Boro (something seems off, can't put my finger on it)

Very fishy:
nobody

Totally fishy:
nobody

A lot of gut feeling in this list, and nobody sticks out as truly deserving of a vote. Day One at its best.

Mostly a lot of filler and vague stuff. There could easily be a lion in the fishy category, or among all the “hasn't said enough/no feeling, feels good” stuff. I can't see him outright calling his suspicion for a fellow Lannister “very flimsy”, so I feel better about Kitanna.

#100 Defending himself to Galadriel, This:

Originally Posted by Inzil
As I said, if you ignored me or thought I seemed innocent I would be more concerned.
On second thought, I think Inzil looks quite innocent. I will ignore him for now. :p

and “What's wrong with bears?” to Wilwa.
#114
Feeling better about Eomer and Galadriel as well. She's sooo insistent that we can't get a wolf today (not that I'm optimistic by any stretch), I highly doubt a wolf would act this way, and lacking a cobbler, she's most likely innocent.

This comes after Eomer saying “You just made a big mistake, pal. :p “ and he gives no reason for “feeling better” about him, and just lumps him in with Gal.

#120 Complains mildly about Gal's vote for him.

#131 Defends “your side”. Claims not to like Skip wagon.
Of my "top suspects" only Inzil has gotten a vote, but I don't feel remotely confident enough about him either to try and get a bandwaggon for him on the rails. Voting for Kitanna or Boro would seem like a throwaway at this point, too, not that I feel strongly about them either.

#138 Votes for Inzil. “Don't lynch me, ok.” With a smiley. This gives me the feeling at one or both of the other lions hasn't voted yet, or at least, is still around to argue. Gil, Lommy, Greenie, Nog, Volo and Eomer voted after Mac. Greenie and Nog voted for Mac late in the day, bringing him to 3 and 4 votes vs. the 5 Skip already had.
Lommy's vote for Wilwa both avoids the Skip wagon and avoids giving Mac his third vote. She could have given Inzil a third vote at that point, too. Not liking the options as an innocent is legit, but the placement makes it look somewhat suspect.

Day Two

#175
Gloats (Seer down in Night 2? Wow.)
“Who might Wilwa have dreamt of” - confident that won't help us? That trail kind of pointed to him, but as a bear.

Continues explaining “your side”.

When I voted and left yesterDay, I thought my "don't lynch me" comment might've been a bit over the top... but you guys almost did kill me! :eek: Not cool.

Would fit nicely if Greenie or Nog is a lion!

#179
Points out Wilwa's list of people she feels good about as having a possible innocent dream. (Boro, me, Kit, Nerwen). Since people have been talking about him as the seer dream, a self-defense move, whatever else it may be.

“If the bear killed her actually thinking Wilwa was the seer, then he noticed something I didn't. “

This should have been a tip-off.

Claims the lovers wanted to kill someone who drew attention to their role.

Aaaand... I have to go and don't have time to finish this. I also wanted to look at other people's interactions with/words about Mac, but I definitely won't have time for that. People, let's not forget that the lion we already caught is probably our best lead.

There's a small chance I won't make it back before deadline, but I really don't want to vote this early.

Thinlómien

06-29-2014, 09:08 AM

Mac and Lommy
Day1: ic banter. Lommy suspects Nerwen for piggybacking on Mac's point and throwing suspicion around. Mac thinks Lommy is a bit overeager to jump on Nerwen. Mac finds Lommy's ominous maths suspicious but think it would be bold for a wolf. Mac puts Lommy in the "no clue" category. Lommy is baffled by Mac being more chaotic than in previous games. When discussing potential vote candidates, Lommy doesn't find Mac particularly suspicious.
Day2: Mac considers Lommy's Day1 vote fishy. Lommy flip-flops on whether G55 was killed for looking like a seer, concludes that if yes, Mac and/or Volo are most likely behind it. Lommy files Mac under "no idea", think he's most likely an ordo or a lover. Lommy points out Mac omitted her from his suspicion list, he puts her in his unsure category. Lommy would prefer Inzil's lynch over Mac's, but has the feeling the Inzil-Mac war is not leading anywhere.
Conclusions: I have the feeling I might not be qualified to judge. :D

Mac and Boro
Day1: ic banter. Mac files Boro as "somewhat fishy".
Day2: Mac mentions the possibility of Boro being a seer-dreamed innocent. Mac considers Boro's Day1 vote fishy. Mac classifies Boro as fairly neutral.
Conclusions: Could be anything.

Mac and Inzil
Day1: mild suspicion against each other. Mac files Inzil as "somewhat fishy" and votes him (2nd vote).
Day2: Inzil says he would've voted Mac on Day1, had he seen his slip. Still he agrees with Rikae that killing Gal would've been risky for wolf-Mac. Mac considers Zil's Day1 vote fishy. Mac clarifes for Kit that he suspected Zil on Day1 because Zil was so quick to suspect him over something very minor. Zil understand Mac's vote on him better than Boro's. Mac keeps suspecting Inzil. Mac makes a case against Inzil. Mac lists Inzil as suspicious. Inzil refuses to make a case for his defense, saying he's justified his actions already. Inzil votes Mac, saying his role would shed light on others'.
Conclusions: Mac voted Inzil on both days. Inzil suspcted Mac on both days but only voted him on Day2. Some of the suspicion between them was bantery and wishy-washy ("we always suspect each other"), sometimes they brought up actual points against each other and were quite vehemently at each others' throats, which would be rather risky especially in a village with a bear. I think Inzil looks fairly good but we can't definitely exonerate him yet.

Mac and Encai
Day1: Mac discusses Encai's words on Inzil. He also considers her innocent.
Day2: Encai agrees with Mac about Wilwa's possible dreams. Mac considers Encai's Day1 vote neutral. Mac lists Encai as fairly neutral.
Conclusions: could be anything.

Mac and Eomer
Day1: Discuss the hunter together. Mac puts Eomer in the "no clue" category. Banter about the bear. Mac finishes the Day with feeling better about Eomer. Eomer points out that the "Mac-voters, G55 and Wyth, are also very curious..."
Day2: Mac considers Eomer's Day1 vote fishy. Eomer thinks Mac looks fairly innocent but says he's fine if the rest of the village wants to lynch him. Mac lists Eomer as suspicious.
Conclusions: A little fishy. Mac suddenly starting to suspect Eomer on Day2 after clearing him in the end of Day1 could either be a wolf in search of people to call guilty, or it could be a wolf seeing the possibility of getting lynched and trying to make a fellow look better by throwing suspicion at them. Also if Eomer and Mac were wolves together and Mac was in danger of lynching I could see Eomerwolf trying to get someone else lynched but underlining that he's ok with Mac getting lynched too. Then again he does it in such an in-your-face manner that he would be quite bold.

Mac and Kitanna
Day1: Mac mildly suspects Kit and files her as "somewhat fishy".
Day2: Mac mentions the possibility of Kit being a seer-dreamed innocent. Kitanna discusses the hunter discussion Mac took part in on Day1 but doesn't conclude whether he looks more guilty or not. Kitanna questions Mac's Day1 suspicions. Mac considers Kitanna's Day1 vote innocentish. Kitanna thinks Mac looks fairly innocent except for his relation to Wilwa. Kitanna thinks that the Mac-voters from Day1 bear having a look at, and considers Mac himself fairly innocent unless he's the bear. Mac lists Kitanna as fairly innocent.
Conclusions: this doesn't really make me any less suspicious of Kitanna. There's a lot of flip-flopping back and forth and casual suspicion that wouldn't materialize into votes on both sides.

Mac and Rikae
Day1: lots of bear discussion and banter. Mac considers Rikae innocent.
Day2: Rikae discusses Mac and Wilwa's interactions in the light of Wilwa getting bear-killed. Doesn't really reach a conclusion. Mac mentions the possibility of Rikae being a seer-dreamed innocent. Rikae talks with Inzil about killing Galadriel being risky for wolf-Mac. She's wary of Mac, but mostly because he looks like a potential lover. Mac considers Rikae's Day1 vote innocentish. Rikae maintains that Mac probably isn't a wolf who thought G55 the seer. Rikae and Mac keep talking about the Day1 role discussion. Rikae summarizes that she's unsure about Mac, options seem to be innocent and bear. Mac lists Rikae as fairly innocent.
Conclusions: Nothing too incriminating, except from past experience I'm a little baffled why isn't Rikae toDay all "you wretched Mac fooled me and were a wolf all along" but rather just amused that he turned out to be a wolf. It's almost like she's not very surprised, which she ought to be if she thought he's an ordo or a lover. As for Mac's behavior towards her, I can see a wolf-Mac having good reasons to consider both wolf-Rikae and innocent-Rikae innocent, so that doesn't give us much.

Mac and Lottie
Day1: Lottie considers Mac fairly innocent. Mac is not too concerned about her.
Day2: Mac considers Lottie's Day1 vote neutral. Lottie puts Mac and Inzil as her top suspects and suggests they're in cahoots. Mac defends himself to Lottie. Lottie decides to vote Zil instead of Mac but maintains they're probably wolves together. Mac lists Lottie as fairly neutral.
Conclusions: Okay, so Lottie picking Zil instead of Mac when she needs to make a decision is slightly fishy, but I wonder if as a wolf she would decide to commit like 90% of her energy on Day2 to suspecting her fellow and an unknown for being in cahoots. Seems a little unlikely, as I maintain that it's more likely the wolves would not try to cast too much suspicion on each other in a village with a bear.

Mac and Nog
Day1: Nog is very confused by Mac's fake hunter reveal. Mac puts Nog in the "no clue" category. Nog gives Mac his fourth vote, although he cross posts with Greenie who gives the third vote.
Day2: Mac considers Nog's Day1 vote neutral. Nog considers it possible that wolf-Mac wanted to kill seer-looking G55, but thinks Volo is more likely the culprit. Mac lists Nog as fairly neutral. Mac argues that Nog's vote on him doesn't look lion-on-lion. Nog is not thrilled about the vote options (including Mac), but ends up giving him his fifth vote, indicating he thinks Mac is more likely to be the bear than a wolf.
Conclusions: In theory, Nog looks fairly good for being an active part of a Macwagon on both Days. Then again, he does possibly try to get someone else than Mac lynched on Day2 before he gives up, and I honestly have no idea what on earth is Mac saying when he's stating that Nog and Greenie's votes on him don't look wolf-on-wolf. Also saying like 2min before the DL that Mac is probably the bear would be a nice touch from a fellow wolf. I'm undecided.

Mac and Eönwe
Day1: Mac notes Eönwë's absence. Eönwë disagrees with Mac about the hunter, and says that Mac (along with a bunch of other people) has said stuff he disagrees with so he'll have a look at him the next Day.
Day2: Mac considers Eönwë's Day1 vote neutral. Mac lists Eönwë as fairly neutral. Eönwë lists Mac as "worrying" without clarifying why. Eönwë gives Mac his 6th vote, cross-posting with Nogrod though. Implies he'd be happy to see either of Zil or Mac to go.
Conclusion: I think Eönwë looks fairly good because of his suspicion of Mac that doesn't look too wolf-on-wolfy, although of course I can't be sure about him either.

Mac and Greenie
Day1: Mac notes her absence. Greenie agrees with me that Mac is oddly chaotic and points out his famous "on your side" slip. Gives Mac his third vote.
Day2: Mac considers Greenie's Day1 vote innocentish. Greenie doesn't think G55's death incriminates Mac, but finds him suspicious nevertheless. Mac lists Greenie as fairly innocent. Mac argues that Greenie's vote on him doesn't look lion-on-lion. Greenie finds Mac the most suspicious in the village and notes him as one of her preferred vote candidates. Mac tries to explain his slip to Greenie. Greenie almost prefers lynching Kit to lynching Mac, but decides to vote Mac after all.
Conclusions: Greenie looks very good for pointing out Mac's slip that one else had noticed after hours had passed. If she's a wolf, she's one of the most heartless bussers I've yet seen (which would be possible but I'd wonder why did she deliberately choose the strategy on already Day1).

Mac and Copper
Day1: Mac is not too concerned about Cop
Day2: Cop discusses Mac's fake reveal without reaching a conclusion. Says Mac and Nerwen are unlikely to be wolves together. Later finds him mildly suspicious and more confusing, files him under "slightly fishy". Mac lists Cop as fairly neutral.
Conclusion: Could be anything.

Mac and Wyth
Day1: Mac is not too concerned about Wyth. Wyth gives Mac his second vote because he's one of the two that stand out to him the most.
Day2: Mac considers Wyth's Day1 vote fishy. Mac says that it's possible but unlikely that Wyth-wolf would have considered himself seer-dreamed by G55. Mac finds Wyth suspiciously defensive. Wyth replies by pointing out it's the first time ever he's been suspected. In his defense to Lottie, Mac keeps saying his suspicion of Wyth was justified. Mac lists Wyth as suspicious but won't vote for him yet. Wyth changes his mind and says Mac looks fairly good but mentions he could still be the bear.
Conclusions: I could see a wolf-Mac and a newbie-wolf-Wyth interacting in this way, especially with Mac finding Wyth suspicious but not vote-worthy and Wyth flip-flopping on Mac once it comes to voting. Then again, all this could be the interaction of a wolf and an innocent.

Mac and Gil
Day1: Mac considers Gil innocent.
Day2: Mac considers Gil's Day1 vote neutral. Mac lists Gil as fairly innocent. Gil slightly hesitantly gives Mac his 3rd vote with lack of better options.
Conclusions: Gil's vote yesterDay makes him look quite innocent to me. Since he didn't have any real suspicions, he could've gone with anyone but he decided to go with Mac.

Mac and Sally
Day1: Mac puts Sally in the "no clue" category and notes on her silence.
Day2: Mac considers Sally's Day1 vote neutral. Mac lists Sally as fairly neutral.
Conclusions: Could be anything.

Summa summarum
possible packmates: Boro, Encai, Eomer, Kitanna, Rikae, Nog, Copper, Wyth, Sally
unlikely packmates: Inzil, Lottie, Eönwë, Greenie, Gil

edit: xed with everyone, sheesh, this took ages!

A Little Green

06-29-2014, 09:25 AM

Ok, I took a quick look at
KITANNA
(Note: I haven't included all her posts, only bits that stood out to me on rereading.)

Day 1

Starts the Day with banter about how she, Encai and Sally are lions because they're all peasants. In her next post, argues against a Targaryen reveal (and does so again in a later post) and flip-flops in some length about the lovers, saying that she won't actively hunt them but would like to be rid of the one extra kill and thus won't mind if one of them gets killed. Says she's busy and might have to vote half-random. Gives Skip his second vote:

Not as random as I thought it would be, but built on flimsy reasoning. Skip has been the only one to really draw my attention. His belief that having a known innocent in exchange for a secret hunter doesn't feel right. It feels like he's pushing for something that could and probably will be harmful for the village by drawing ranger resources to protect someone who has no knowledge of anyone else's role and therefore their only benefit is being a known innocent for a day or two.

Day 2

Starts off by speculating on why the bear went for Wilwa. Says that she had not really thought that the lovers might ally themselves with either the village or the lions. Thinks Gal looked nice and helpful but can't think of why the lions targeted her unless it was because she was too helpful. Argues that it's important to also discuss the bear but repeats that she won't be actively hunting him. Agrees with Lommy on a statement on the bear very similar to her own from Day 1.
Finds both Nerwen and Lommy suspicious for an exchange on Day 1, says Mac's fake reveal means he's either guilty and trying to distract us or a crazy ordo. Part agrees, part disagrees with Volo's ”bear is a friendly neighborhood assassin” -post. Still more elaboration on the same lions/lovers -debate:
I think this is a very sensible breakdown. I think we can all agree no one wants the double kills at night, but at the same time the lovers could be an asset if they are hunting the lions too.
The problem with this of course is the lovers don’t know who the lions are and keeping them alive could end this game very quickly. But also the lions probably want the lovers alive for extra kills. I’m waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

Thinks Lottie's suspicion list is non-committal, can't find much fault with Sally's vote, questions Boro slightly. Speculates about Wilwa's dream:
I think within these five [Mac, Boro, Rikae, Kit, Nerwen] is Wilwa's dream. It's most probably one of the four she felt good about, but I can't shake an uneasy feeling I have about Mac. He accused Wilwa of steering the conversation toward hunter/lover talk instead of toward the lions. Then her mention above just doesn't sit right with me. It's not a smoking gun or anything saying "Mac, this guy, bad!" but at the same time their interaction throughout has me wondering if she was chosen because of it.

Thinks Encai looks buddy-buddy with Eomer, says Wilwa's dream was most likely one of the ones she felt good about, calls Inzil's vote ”easy bandwagon, lack of time vote, which I am also guilty of casting”, subtly casts suspicion on Lommy by saying it's interesting how her top two choices for lynching on Day 1 are both dead, though adds that much shouldn't really be read into it.

She then has a long-ish and, to my eye, very odd exchange with Eomer. I couldn't make out what they were even talking about; it looked like they both misunderstood something the other said and tried to clarify it.

After that is the infamous slip, if it is one:
Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions.
Doubts the lions would have purposefully gone after the hunter. Flip-flops about Mac:
Where Galadriel's death is concerned I see Mac as somewhat innocent. She voted for him, but it's possible the lions thought she was seer based on her comments about Wilwa. Or if they thought they were getting the hunter, as both Rikae and Zil say, Mac looks pretty good.
However, I feel somewhat uneasy about Mac where Wilwa is regarded. Their interactions about the lovers yesterday was odd. A lion trying to get rid of the competition before the lovers get them? Or a bear nervous that a lion had pegged them?
She then analyses of the Day 1 Mac-wagon:
A lot of attention has been paid to skip's bandwagon, so I'm not really going to add much, since nothing I could say will be new.

Rather, I'm interested in the Mac voters. We know now that skip is innocent, so it's not like the votes against Mac piled up to save him, so why did he get his own bandwagon? According to the timeline (as provided by the lynch candidate himself) Mac didn't receive a vote until after skip already had five.She concludes her analysis with
I'd say that there was a lion in skip's wagon for sure, but I feel there was probably one in Mac's too.

That said
Zil - Based on vote placement for Skip and his general agreeable attitude thus far I'd say he's the likely lion in that wagon. He also gained three votes of his own and at his vote placement he had one vote and his vote gave skip 4, thus pushing skip far into the lead.
Wyth & Greenie - I haven't seen a lot from them to make a really informed decision, but based on placement I'd say lion. I'm in the dark about Greenie, but Wyth has said a few things that I noted as odd. He seemed overly defensive earlier today, but hasn't been around much since to continue to watch. Also he was skip leaning yesterday, but switched to Mac. Which is odd to me.

I'm leaning toward an innocent Nog based on his vote.

Notes on a few others
Enca - She's been agreeable and seems a bit buddy-buddy with some players.
Mac - The more I see from others the less likely I find it that Mac is a lion. But his responses about the lover discussion are odd.
Gil - His vote was very, very safe. His comments haven't been unreasonable and though he's garnered some suspicion, he's stayed pretty well under the radar.
Votes for Encai:
Just got super busy at work, but the short of it
1) she's been just vocal enough to appear helpful, but not so vocal as to draw too much attention
2) she seemed very chummy D1, especially with Eomer
3) her vote for Nogrod looked very safe to me
Explains her slip:
I mean. That she was chosen because she didn't specifically mention any lions in her posts. So they chose her as a no trace kill.

Edit: just a theory on why her since what she said didn't look too seerish to me, with the exception of her Wilwa defense

CONCLUSIONS?
Three things above all caught my eye on reading Kitanna.
1) She concentrates a lot on the bear/lovers, despite saying our first priority should be the lions.
2) She flip-flops on Mac a great deal. She "can't shake an uneasy feeling about him", but later on "finds it unlikely that he's a lion".
3) Her odd slip about Gal not mentioning any lions. It still puzzles me, and I didn't really understand her explanation of it, either. But the idea of two genuine wolf slips in the same village sounds a bit ludicrous, so I'm not sure what to make of that.

Also - why vote for Encai? Her previous post made it look like she suspected Inzil (and maybe also Wyth and myself) a deal more than Encai. At the time she voted, Inzil already had two votes but Encai had none (if I remember correctly that her vote was cross-posted with Rikae's). Which makes it really odd that she doesn't vote for Inzil.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy's novel, fixed typo

A Little Green

06-29-2014, 10:03 AM

Two lions in the following bunch:
Eönwë - Still under my radar, although his yesterDay's vote does make him look more innocent than not. Unless, of course, Inzil is a lion too, in which case it doesn't tell us anything at all.
Inzil - I agree with Lommy that his and Mac's suspicion of each other is a bit extreme for lion-on-lion, but if Kit turns out to be a lion, I might change my mind and suspect him after all.
Kitanna - Suspicious (see previous post for details).
Encaitare - I think her response to Nog's argument against her toDay seemed genuine; not too alarmed otherwise, either.
Lommy - Still torn about her - she was really fishy on Day 1, then getting less and less so as the game progresses. Not my main suspect at the moment, but not comfortable with her, either.
Boro - Does someone pay him to make my brain hurt? What's all this cryptic *vanishes* -stuff? In a word: confusing.
Loslote - I like her argumentation, but what I mostly recall of her without closer reading is easy, likely noncontroversial votes on both days. Could go either way.
Wyth - Difficult to say; could be a lion-cub, could be a regular cub. Headache-material.
Eomer - Hmm. He's seemed innocentish to me this far, but his interactions with Mac do look slightly fishy.
Rikae - I still find her more innocent than not.
Copper - Still slightly suspicious of her for the same reasons as yesterDay - her reasons for voting Eomer yesterDay seemed a little like grasping at straws, and I got an uneasy feeling about her "Oh no, the seer is dead" -comment. Not top of my list toDay, though.
Nogrod - I still don't suspect him! What's wrong with me?
Gil-Galad - Haven't seen anything to alarm me this far, and his Mac-vote yesterDay made him seem more innocent than not.
Sally - Where is she?

EDIT: fixed typo again. "Suspicous" sounds like a brand of couscous.

Coppermirror

06-29-2014, 10:24 AM

By the way, I'm still here, and still writing my analysis of Mac. Haven't even got to reading Day 3 properly yet. Oh hell, it's going to be daylight before I'm finished with this thing. And I still don't know who to vote for.

Sally - Where is she?

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but...she didn't vote yesterDay, did she? This is a bit concerning. I think Boro didn't vote either.

Thinlómien

06-29-2014, 10:50 AM

Innocentish
Inzil
Lottie
Eönwë
Greenie
Gil
(see my macalysis, I'm giving them the benefit of doubt for the time being)

Not too worried about
Rikae - seems more innocent than not, there are some things against her but overall she's far from the top of my suspicion list.
Nogrod - there is the worrying possibility of Nog being a mastermind wolf, but my gut-feeling says no. Like I said before, he seems way more secretive as a wolf.
Copper - I always have hard time reading her because her posts are like 75% summary and 25% interpretation, but there's nothing that has really caught my attention yet.
Wyth - his interactions with Mac could go either way, and I have hard time reading him. He's in this category because other people are way more suspicious.
Sally - in serious threat of getting modfired... Where are you, Sallycakes? Anyway, I don't find it very productive to discuss her until she appears (or is modfired).

Worried about
Boro - really weird toDay, and his conviction of Kitanna's innocence in strange. Also he talks about yesterDay's voting like he knows Kitanna and Zil are innocent, which is slightly alarming.
Encai - my gut-feeling is against her, and her vote yesterDay isn't the least suspicious either to phrase it mildly.
Eomer - mostly because of his interactions with Mac, also he somehow manages to be under the radar while being quite controversial and I don't like that.
Kitanna - my top suspect atm. Consider her slip, her concentrating on the bear and the maiden fair and her interactions with Mac, plus the fact that people (including Mac) have defended her even though there hasn't been that much suspicion against her. Why I hesitate: it looks maybe even too obvious, (plus if Boro happens to be a wolf, I doubt she is.)

satansaloser2005

06-29-2014, 11:11 AM

So many avatars changing* has made trying to read the thread very difficult. :(

I'm here and reading. Hopefully I can get through the Day and get a good grip on things.

*Well, that and all of the people I haven't played with in forever, but that part excites me. :D

Thinlómien

06-29-2014, 11:43 AM

Where is everyone? I'm not liking this silence one bit. Makes me feel like the remaining wolves are probably safe and happily in hiding while the couple of us who have been around toDay are arguing in circles...

A Little Green

06-29-2014, 11:45 AM

Need an early bed this time as I'm pretty much dead on my feet, so I'm voting now and likely not coming back toDay.

++ Kitanna

In brief: her slip, her emphasis on the lovers, her interactions with Mac, and to some extent her inconsistent voting yesterDay.

Gil-Galad

06-29-2014, 11:48 AM

I am here and reading as much as I can when I get the chance, though it is another quiet day. I have a feeling it will boil down to another last minute vote-off like last day.

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 11:52 AM

Scrolling through the thread while watching football I happened to see this from early yesterDaySo if the lions weren't really expecting the Seer to be findable, and chose Wilwa because of this, then I'm sure two of them at least are in this group.
......
Can't believe they actually got the Seer, though. That Lannister filth always gets lucky somehow.An innocent might have made that kind of an error... but a wolf or a lover/Bear wouldn't - unless it was done on purpose trying to look like an innocent?

Somehow my feeling is, that would be a bit far-fetched, but what do you think? Would Eomer pull that kind of a trick?

Inziladun

06-29-2014, 11:55 AM

Inzil's interaction with Mac does seem a bit planned to me, and I suspect Inzil anyway for independent reasons; however, simplest answer is surely that Inzil is probably no lion.

I don't know if Mac planned any of that interaction with me, but I may have put the idea in his head with my early, not serious, suspicion of him. Like I've said, we've always seemed to have suspected one another in the past, and I was just touching on that. He might have seen that as an opportunity to tie me to him in the event he was discovered.

I'm gonna go ahead and say that Wyth, Nog and Green are not lions either.

I'm fairly comfortable with Wyth and Greenie, but I'm wary of Nog just on general principles, though he looks rather clean thus far.

Also, Boro is acting weird.

No argument there. But Lion-weird? That's unlikely.

So many avatars changing* has made trying to read the thread very difficult. :(

Yes to that too. It was already hard enough remembering who all was playing...

Where is everyone? I'm not liking this silence one bit. Makes me feel like the remaining wolves are probably safe and happily in hiding while the couple of us who have been around toDay are arguing in circles...

My feeling is that there's a loud Lion and a quiet one. There's several I've seen entirely too little of.

x/d with Greenie, Gil, and Nog

Thinlómien

06-29-2014, 12:05 PM

Scrolling through the thread while watching football I happened to see this from early yesterDayAn innocent might have made that kind of an error... but a wolf or a lover/Bear wouldn't - unless it was done on purpose trying to look like an innocent?
So if the lions weren't really expecting the Seer to be findable, and chose Wilwa because of this, then I'm sure two of them at least are in this group.
......
Can't believe they actually got the Seer, though. That Lannister filth always gets lucky somehow.
Somehow my feeling is, that would be a bit far-fetched, but what do you think? Would Eomer pull that kind of a trick?Yes, I forgot about that. Personally I think it would be quite a dishonest trick to pull as a wolf, but Eomer's playing style is not the most nicey-nice or lawful and he does tend to think outside the box. Still, this makes me a little less suspicious of him. (Although maybe a wolf lost in his won fabrications could genuinely make such a mistake too, who knows.) /end lommy-flipflop

Coppermirror

06-29-2014, 12:05 PM

Interactions with Maclion on Day 1

#27 - banters with Lommy and Boro. Likes Wilwa and G55, and is slightly suspicious of Inzil for lack of substance, but tempers that with saying Enca at least found it useful. This could be either a subtle lionish way of throwing suspicion on an innocent Inzil or a mild bit of lion-on-lion.
#38 - fake Targaryen reveal post. "while I do agree that Nerwen's post was a bit suspicious, Lommy seemed a bit over-eager to jump on it. So.. hmmmm..." Another hedged suspicion.
#41 - Eomer agrees with Mac that the Targaryen would be crazy to reveal that early. Not very relevant-looking.
#51 - Inzil to Mac: "Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you. Then again, it might be more worrisome if you didn't fire a shot or two my way Day 1." Bantery on Inzil's side, and/or an overreaction to what isn't intense scrutiny. But I take it there's some Mac vs Inzil history there. It's hard to judge this. And he just rolls his eyes at Mac's Targaryen-declaration.
#52 - Boro glares at Mac, bantery. Doesn't look relevant.
#70 - Mac's "The numbers may be on your side" lionish slip response to Skip. Thinks Kitanna's statement about the lovers is suspicious. Points out Lommy's bolded italicised statement and finds it suspicious, but wonders "The thing is, would a wolf state it in all-bold?". Well, he knows the answer to that one, whatever it is. The reasoning could be either that she is and he wants to take the heat off her, or that he knows she isn't.
#77 - a joking vote for Mac from Rikae, where she suggests he's a bear and winks. Jokes may just be jokes, but this still makes me wonder if she's got some special knowledge about lions or bears in this game. A later post (#86) suggests that a jokey Rikae usually means an innocent Rikae, but Maclion was the one who said it.
#80 - Mac responds to Rikae. Sighs and uses many a smiley re the joke vote. I don't think there's anything to learn from this post though.
#82 - Lottie's suspicion list. Of Mac, says "Strikes me as being fairly genuine in his tone. Seems to me to be more innocent than not so far".
#86 - Nog is the first person to point out that Mac's Targaryen fake reveal looks suspicious, although he can't see why anyone would want to do it. That would be a risky time for a Nog lion to point out a thing like that.
#96 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=692259&postcount=96) - Mac's Day 1 suspicions list. The innocents in his list are all noted as people he feels good about or is not particularly concerned about or can't make anything of. On his fishy list are Inzil, Kitanna, and Boro.
#100 - changes his mind about Inzil, now says he looks innocent. Said jokingly.
#101 - Eomer's joking response to Mac's bear gag in the previous post. Can't really guess anything from this.
#105 - Lommy is baffled by Mac's apparently uncharacteristic chaotic behaviour.
#114 - Mac's joking response to Eomer. And says he's feeling better about Eomer and G55. Both of them had been on his no clue list earlier.
#123 - Rikae questions G55 the innocent's vote for Maclion. But her reasoning is sound, so it doesn't look either suspicious or non-suspicious.
#124 - Greenie points out some odd conflicting behaviour from Mac, and also points out the "your side" slip. This is makes Greenie look pretty good. I can't imagine a lion would want to point that out. He already had one vote and there were many votes left to be cast, albeit that Skip the innocent had already surged ahead with 4 votes by then. At #137 she pushes Mac to explain himself in response to his "Yikes, that was poorly worded by me" re #124. And she ends up voting Mac at #159. If she's a lion she was playing an incredibly bold game of lion-on-lion.
#130 - Nog finds the "your side" quote about Mac that Greenie pointed out to be interesting.
#131 - Mac notes that out of his top suspects the only one with a vote is Inzil, but that he doesn't feel "remotely confident enough about him either to try and get a bandwaggon for him on the rails". Says Kitanna or Boro would be a throwaway too, hedged with a "not that I feel strongly about them either".
#133 - Eonwe disagrees with Mac about how easy a surviving hunter's identity will be to establish. Doesn't seem relevant. Votes for Skip, but includes Mac on his list of four people who've said things he didn't like.
#135 - Wyth/Lote votes Mac. Chronologically it's the second vote for him. His post looks decent there. Doesn't mean he's not a lion for certain, but he's not looking bad.
#138 - Mac votes Inzil. It's the second vote for Inzil, made at a time where the largest votes were 5 for Skip and 2 for Mac. I don't think this clears Inzil. Mac himself at #131 said he didn't feel he could get an Inzil bandwagon rolling (implication that he'd like to), and he had said he disliked the Skipwagon, so at this point Inzil was his only vote choice.
#139 - Nog thinks that one but not both of G55 and Mac could be lions, and at that time would prefer to vote G55 of the two. It's hard to gauge Nog here.
#150 - Nog thinks that Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven's defence of Mac looks far fetched.
#152 - Greenie would prefer to vote Lommy or G55 over Mac because she wants to hear his response first. At #154 she would prefer Wilwa over Skip but Mac over Wilwa. Still looking pretty innocent there. Votes Mac at #159.
#157 - Nog wants to vote G55 for preference, but then Mac or Wilwa. At #161 he votes Mac. This doesn't make him look as good as it does Greenie, but it doesn't make him look bad.
#162 - Eomer is suspicious of the Mac voters (and names G55 and Wyth), and (jokingly?) suggests that maybe no lions were voting on that Day. With one minute to go, he votes Inzil at #166. At this point, Skip was on 5 votes, Mac on 4, and Inzil on 2.
Eomer's vote taking Inzil to 3. The only people yet to vote at that point were me and Nerwen, and people could have guessed neither were going to show up at that point, so Eomer's vote wasn't going to have much effect.

Interactions with Maclion on Day 2

#177 - Rikae thinks that if there's a bear hint in Wilwa's post, it's for Mac. But thinks that if he was a bear he wouldn't have been so against people looking for them, and that his "What's wrong with bears?" comment would be bold. She could be misdirecting here, but otherwise her comments about Mac look OK.
#179 - Mac looks at possible Wilwa dreams. Says that if she did dream of someone guilty, she hid it completely. Suggests that if she dreamed of an innocent it's one of: Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, Nerwen. Could be just a filler post, but he could have feared she'd be taken to have dreamed of him and tried misdirecting people. Or he could have been trying to make people think that a lion Boro, Rikae or Kitanna was dreamed innocent. Nerwen was not killed by lions.
#181 - Kitanna says of Mac, "I’m pretty sure his fake reveal means he’s guilty and trying to distract us or he’s a crazy ordo".
#183 - Rikae doesn't like Mac's dislike of talking about the lovers on Day 1, and implies that maybe he's the bear.
#184 - Inzil says he would have voted for Mac had he caught the "your side" slip.
#185 - Encaitaire agrees with Mac's point that Wilwa most likely dreamed of an innocent.
#186 - Kitanna: "I can't shake an uneasy feeling I have about Mac." and explains that his accusations of her steering the conversation towards the hunter/lovers is "not a smoking gun or anything saying "Mac, this guy, bad!" but at the same time their interaction throughout has me wondering if she was chosen because of it. "
#187 - Rikae agrees with Inzil that if the lions thought G55 was the hunter, Mac looks better for it. But that if they thought she was the seer he wouldn't.
#188 - Inzil thinks that "in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky" - too risky to kill G55 on Seer suspicion? Or, too risky for a lion/bear Mac to kill a hunter-G55?
#189 - Rikae clarifies and says she thinks it would be a good bet for someone other than Mac to kill a presumed hunter G55. OK, this makes sense. But...
#190 - Realises Inzil may have meant a Seer scenario, and clarifies that she doesn't think G55's comments about Mac looked Seerish and that it wouldn't be risky to kill her. Then says she's wary of Mac maybe being a lover, but wants to move on to lion catching.
#195 - Kitanna wonders why Mac was feeling better about Eomer in post #194.
#196: Eomer suggests that the Inn takes a chance on those who looked most suspicious on G55's list, Volo and Mac. Thinks she sounded most suspicious of Volo.
#197 (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=692385&postcount=197) - Mac's vote analysis of Day 1.
#200 - Rikae doesn't like Eomer's #196 plan, and thinks that G55's post looked just like run of the mill stuff.
#205 - Nog goes through possible suspicions on G55's list. Seems logical. If Nog's evil I can't see any hints to it there.
#206 - Mac analyses G55. Considers that might have been thought to have dreamed of Wyth or Volo but it's a stretch and "If the lions thought she was gifted, it must've simply been due to her being overly passionate". Also considers that G55's death might have been an attempt to frame him, but that Greenie or Nog would have been better choices for framing him. Thinks maybe she was a false-trail kill.

#209 - Wyth responds to Mac's suggestion that Wyth could be a lion, and suggests that Mac is deflecting suspicion onto someone who voted for him (Wyth).
#211 - Mac thinks Wyth is being very defensive, and says that now he does suspect him. This is making Wyth look on the innocent side more than not, though it's not conclusive.
#213 - Wyth explains this is the first time he's been accused. But is firm about Mac looking wolfy.
#226 - Kitanna thinks Mac looks somewhat innocent where G55 is concerned, and pretty good if the lions thought she was the hunter. But she's uneasy about his Wilwa interactions on lion/bear grounds. Hard to read her here. Says "And the defensiveness continues." about Wyth's post.
#238 - Lottie thinks that if Maclion is a Maclion, Inzil is likely to be one of his packmates, but perhaps not so much vice versa. This post looks sensible. However, she seems to have missed Mac at #131 saying "While I'm not feeling particularly well about Skip myself, I do not like that bandwaggon at all" which may have meant that Mac couldn't vote Skip. It was after Mac said this that Mac got his second vote (from Wyth)...and Skip got his 5th vote (from Eönwë). Lottie's post here might be innocent, but it might have been a lionish way of throwing suspicion on Inzil should Mac be killed.
#255 - Kitanna speculates about Mac voters.

Oookay, I'm going to have to go faster here.

#245 - Mac unhappy with Lottie not being happy about his reaction to Wyth. Also tries to explain his Inzil vote, and gets into a discussion with Lottie about that. Her reasoning looks okay there.
#262 - Eomer says "Mac seems innocent-ish to me (still)". Votes Inzil, leaves. I would say that if Eomer is a lion, Inzil is not. Still not feeling good about Eomer.
#265 - Lottie is saying now, contrary to what she said earlier, that if Inzil is a wolf, Mac should be looked at. If Inzil were to get lynched and turned out to be a wolf, I think Lottie would be looking non-liony. At first glance her comment looks good, but on a closer look, that could have been a backhanded way of her trying to say that Mac should not be looked at if Inzil turns out to not be a wolf.
#266 - Rikae's list post. Of Mac says "A bear! A bear! Seriously, though, I'm unsure about him."...which doesn't say a lot for either her guilt or innocence.
#269 - Lommy's list post. Says she can't read this new Mac.
#274 - Mac's list post. He's suspicious of Inzil and Wyth, and now also of Eomer. "Just going along with other people's suspicions here, I know, but he has been playing it safe." he says. Now...I do suspect Eomer, but right now I don't see a reason for Mac to suddenly suspect him there if Eomer is a lion. This makes me feel a little better about Eomer.

Both Rikae and Kitanna vote for Enca. #292 - Wyth now feeling okay about Mac? And...agh, okay, I'm too tired. I'm just going to have to stop the proper analysis here and just go on to the votes.

Nerwen's vote #1 for Mac looks great, but she's dead. Zil's second vote for Mac doesn't necessarily mean much on its own, since if guilty he may be too far locked into an argument with Mac. However it is interesting that Mac only gave his vote when Inzil already had 4 votes. Greenie and Nog are instrumental in bringing Mac up to 5 votes, equal with Inzil. Eönwë breaks the tie in favour of Mac being lynched. Those three are looking good, but I still wouldn't be incredibly surprised if one of them was a bold, clever lion.

Current suspicions list:

????: Enca, Kitanna, Sally, Gil
Medium fishy: Eomer, Lottie
Slightly fishy: Rikae, Inzil, Boro, Lommy
Neutral: Wyth/Lote, Nog, Eonwe
Looking good: Greenie

I'm going to take a look at Day 3 now and then take another look at Day 2's votes.

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 12:15 PM

Doing my first list then.

Very probably innocent:

Eönwë - house Royce (because of the voting: deciding to finally lynch Maclion)
A Little Green - house Reed (because of the voting on both Days & general reasonableness)

Leaning towards innocence:

Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin (because of pressing Maclion and basically building a case againt him - too serious-looking to be lion-onlion + speaks sense)
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos (because of vote D2)

It's complicated...

Inziladun - house Tully (I have been suspecting him especially earlier but somehow things just don't seem to add up with Mac's role known)
Kitanna - illiterate peasant (Have been suspecting from D2 onwards and probably my strongest suspicion right now - but like Greenie said: "could it be this easy?")
Encaitare - random peasant (Made a good answer to my question on her vote yesterDay but that diesn't clear other issues)
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon (Spends first evening just hanging around and sending tallies... votes late on both Days but never takes sides between the top-candidates but ducks away...)
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark (that error - not knowing which baddie-side killed the seer - bothers me to no end: absolutely innocent or a double-bluff? I can see why some suspect him otherwise but...)

Sadly, no idea:

Boromir88 - house Bolton
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Rikae - house Tarth
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit x
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-29-2014, 12:25 PM

Nogrod/Lommy, I absolutely love that you think I could have planned a deliberate error like that. I'll remember the trick if I'm ever a baddie again. :D

But trying to be as objective as possible (and I won't be pushing this point after this post, don't worry) I agree with you that no villain would have gotten so mixed up as I did. That's as strong an argument for my innocence as I think you're likely to get in a WW game.

Ok, now to look at some under-the-radar types. I am focusing way too much on the loudmouths so far.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-29-2014, 12:35 PM

My main question now is whether the lions decided to sacrifice Mac on Night 2/Day2. They can't have been happy with his being in the spotlight on Day 1.

It's down to Day 1 voting why I think Nog and Green (and Wyth) are innocent. Nog and Green stick with their vote on Day 2 (Wyth changes to Inzil) and it's Inzil, Gil and Eonwe who jump onto Mac.

Getting in while the going's good, perhaps?

Inziladun

06-29-2014, 12:49 PM

My internet is randomly going out, for no obvious reason. :confused:

Somehow my feeling is, that would be a bit far-fetched, but what do you think? Would Eomer pull that kind of a trick?

It's not impossible, but I think that from an Eomer-Lion is unlikely. At any rate, he's seemed consistent and thoughtful. Not really an evil vibe there.

Of the voters yesterDay, I'm interested in the ones who avoided choosing sides between me and Mac: Coppermirror, Kit, Rikae, and Lommy. My logic says that Mac's mates would not have both voted the same way. And would both want to be in on a bandwagon that would draw scrutiny, whether mine or Mac's?

WythDryden

06-29-2014, 12:54 PM

No idea:
Eönwe
A Little Green - She has placed herself in a very good position.
Coppermirror - Pretty good recent analysis at #385
Nogrod - Still strikingly seem as being innocent, though if there is anyone that I worry about having the mastermindedness to pull that off it would be him
Loslote - Feeling pretty good here. Seemed to stick out a little on D1, but since then has seemed pretty reasonable and innocent to me.
Gil-Galad
satansaloser2005 - Still not enough info to go on.

Maybe an idea:

Encaitare - Has been too busy to post, but that doesn't imply guilt OR innocence
Thinlómien - Has been pretty reasonable for the most part, but I get whiffs of shiftiness that I can't exactly put my finger on.
Boromir88 - Still coming off as quite cryptic. Could be IRL getting in the way, but seems to delight a bit in being more confusing than helpful. Maybe that's just a misread by me though.
Rikae - Seeming more ok, but unsure.
Eomer - Maybe the most up in the air as any of them. Good for now though.
Inziladun - With Mac's role known, he comes off looking much better. Though this past history with each other they bring up almost comes off as a little forced to me. But the amount of attention that continued here when it could've been just as effective in fewer posts has me leaning towards non-lion.

Squinty-eyed:
Kitanna - For the points made before, as well as the voting. Also, in Mac's list in #274, of the 4 people Mac says he is most comfortable with, I think Kitanna is the one he'd slip in there, I'm feeling pretty good about the others still. Maybe things are leading too obviously in her direction, but my head is spinning still, and she seems the most probable. Also her post in #226 siding with Mac about my defensiveness doesn't sit too well with me either. :p

I definitely feel like at least one of the lion's has been being pretty quiet. There's enough people here flying under the radar that are in a safe position merely because they haven't posted much at all. And because there's enough of that, there is a safety in numbers that they won't get chosen as it's more likely to be a random chance of getting them, rather than a calculated lynching. Good strategy on their part, but it makes me nervous.

Inziladun

06-29-2014, 12:54 PM

And...internet going out again!

I hate to sound the paranoia chant, but was it planned to get me lynched yesterDay? Or was it an effort made when it became clear that Mac was still on people's minds? That unanswerable question for me colors how the non-bandwagon votes should be considered.

I'll have to go cut grass in the not-too-distant future, though I've got a little time left. I may have to step it up even more while I've got a connection.

x/d with Wyth

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 01:00 PM

Unless another and more promising scenario turns out I'm probably ready to suggest we lynch Kitanna toDay. That is both because I think she might be our best shot, but also to avoid the situation where we need to mull over the same question toMorrow.

What comes to possible lion-on-lion votes there are I think reasons which speak both for and against it in this particular game.

Now the fact that the seer is gone would surely add the temptation of lion-on-lions as without a deus ex machina all we can now rely on is trust.

Then again the game is big and with the bear around doing some killing as well I'd think it a bit reckless & foolish of the lions to willingly give up one of their own numbers. Which, now as I think about it, sounds like a more substantial point than the above about there not being seer anymore.

All that doesn't mean the lions would not suspect other lions when it is relatively safe (or even vote if it is "relatively safe"), but in this situation I wouldn't think voting to kill one of their own would be a good move on their behalf.

But trying to be as objective as possible (and I won't be pushing this point after this post, don't worry) I agree with you that no villain would have gotten so mixed up as I did. That's as strong an argument for my innocence as I think you're likely to get in a WW game.
I kind of like this reaction to our musings that I'm probably thinking Eomer more innocent than not - at least for the time being...

EDIT: X'd with Wyth & Zil

Thinlómien

06-29-2014, 01:03 PM

Of the voters yesterDay, I'm interested in the ones who avoided choosing sides between me and Mac: Coppermirror, Kit, Rikae, and Lommy. My logic says that Mac's mates would not have both voted the same way. And would both want to be in on a bandwagon that would draw scrutiny, whether mine or Mac's?Funny you should say that since it's been precisely us who didn't join a bandwagon that have drawn scrutiny toDay... :p

Also, I never like the argument that "one of the wolves probably joined the bandwagon and the other didn't" because while it may make mathematical sense, the wolves are not some programmed evil guys but individual players who make their own decisions based on their personality and whims.

edit: xed with Noggels

Inziladun

06-29-2014, 01:11 PM

Unless another and more promising scenario turns out I'm probably ready to suggest we lynch Kitanna toDay. That is both because I think she might be our best shot, but also to avoid the situation where we need to mull over the same question toMorrow.

I wanted to give Kit the benefit of the doubt, as she seemed busy in RL, but doing that with Mac turned out a bad idea. I was, and have been, leery of her safe-looking votes two Days straight. Can it be that easy? It was with Mac, but will lightning strike twice?

At this point I think Eomer an unlikely Lion. Same for Sally, who I would expect to be a lot more active as a baddie. And where is Steve?
If we had a Cobbler at this point, I would be tempted to say it's Boro. He really is being opaque, but I wouldn't think a Lion would want to do anything to draw such attention.

Also, I never like the argument that "one of the wolves probably joined the bandwagon and the other didn't" because while it may make mathematical sense, the wolves are not some programmed evil guys but individual players who make their own decisions based on their personality and whims.

That's true, but trying to guess motives from actions is all we can do. At some point you have to say "x is likely, y not so much".

Encaitare

06-29-2014, 01:12 PM

Okay. I'm going to make a quick list, and then most likely will have to vote shortly thereafter.

Leaning toward innocent:
- Greenie
- Wyth
- Nogrod
- Rikae

Not sure:
- Coppermirror
- Lommy
- Loslote
- Gil-Galad
- Satansaloser2005
- Eomer

Suspicious:
- Inzil (though rather less so than before)
- Boro (he's been very quiet and mysterious, which I think is unusual for him)
- Eonwe (now that I'm less suspicious of his fellow Skip-voter Inzil, I'm more suspicious of him)
- Kitanna (for the same reason as Eonwe, though others have raised some good points about her, so I'm more suspicious of her than him)

Coppermirror

06-29-2014, 01:15 PM

Possible votes.

Eomer:
In favour of voting him: General feel of his playing style in this game. Day 1 suspicion of Mac voters.
Mixed points: Suggests on Day 2 that Volo and Mac be looked at, but prefers Volo. Says Mac looks innocent, and leaves. Voted Inzil first on Day 2, might have been to take the heat off Mac.
Against voting him: Mac's Day 3 suspicion of him, bumping him up to his most suspected category, albeit in a lacklustre way. Could have been misdirection from Mac. His posts look slightly better toDay.

Lottie:
In favour of voting her: Positive about Mac on Day 1. At #238 and #235, it looks to me as if maybe she's trying to put suspicion on Inzil if Mac is guilty and none on Mac if Inzil is guilty.
Mixed points: Her Day 1 vote for Skip could easily have been opportunistic (or not). Second Inzil vote, might have been to take the heat off Mac.
Against voting her: Her reasoning at #245 and on Day 3 looks pretty good.

Lommy:
In favour of voting her: Her Day 2 Kitanna vote that couldn't really have led to a lynch - Boro's point at #355 that Lommy couldn't have voted Zil at that point due to statements she made earlier.
Mixed points: Day 1 panicking about double night kills while only wanting to focus on wolves.
#48 oddly bolded and italicised statement about vote conspiracies. Several times says she's confused by Mac and can't read him.
Against voting her: #360 Nog's point that she could easily have made a less controversial vote but didn't.

A lot of people have mentioned Kitanna, including people I'm tending to think are more likely innocent than not, and I'm not entirely following why. So I'm going to take a look at people's posts more closely.

If I don't see anything all that suspicious there, I think I may vote Lottie.

Loslote

06-29-2014, 01:17 PM

Quick list of impressions:

Probably innocent:
Eonwe: His vote was pretty decisive yesterDay, and unless he was choosing between two fellow lions (Mac and Zil) I don't think a Lionwe[b] would have voted the way he did.
[b]Eomer: He's seemed solid throughout the game, and some of the things he's done and said would be extremely unlikely coming from a lion.
Greenie: Her voting has looked pretty good, especially yesterDay, and her posts have sounded pretty genuine.
Nog: He's looked pretty genuine this game, and his votes have been placed such that it looks unlikely that he's a lion.

Maybe innocent:
Zil: I said yesterDay that, if Mac were a lion, Zil probably was too, but I've gotten a whole lot less confident in that as the Day goes on. My theory about Mac's Day 1 vote isn't exactly water-proof, and Zil's posts toDay have been a lot more like what I'm used to seeing from his innocent self than from his evil self.
Gil: I haven't gotten enough of a read off of him to put him firmly in the innocent category, but I haven't seen anything suspicious, either.
Enca: I don't know her playing style very well, but I don't think she's been too suspicious thus far.
Wythy D.: Seems pretty innocent so far, but is doing remarkably well for a first time player - could he be getting pointers from his packmates at Night? That's not exactly grounds for suspicion, though, so I'll leave him in this category for now.

Could go one way or the other:
Cop: Something strikes me as off about Cop, but I haven't gotten a good enough read yet to say whether or not it merits real suspicion. I'll try to take a closer look later, but I probably won't have time toDay.
Sally: Could be anything at this point, and I would not know it.
Boro: Same as Sally.

Maybe not so innocent:
Lommy: She's been pretty cautious and quiet this game. Her votes have been a little fishy, too. I'd keep an eye on her.
Rikae: She and Kit have been staying out of the main current of the game for the most part. While that could be the mark of innocents keeping clear of what they think is a bandwagon on an innocent, it could also be a mark of a lion either a) staying out of what they know is a bandwagon on an innocent or b) staying out of a bandwagon on their packmate. However, I don't think both Rikae and Kit are wolves - I doubt, if they were packmates, they'd both keep out of the bandwagons - but I would not be surprised if one of them were.
Kit: See above.

I think that's everyone. This took me longer than I expected.

EDIT: xed since Nog

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 01:25 PM

Funny you should say that since it's been precisely us who didn't join a bandwagon that have drawn scrutiny toDay... :p Do I read some contempt here? :)

Talking of wagons then a bit.

YesterDay got off with a mini ZilWagon (2 votes by Eomer & Lottie).

Then MacLion got a vote (from known innocent Nerwen).

It was followed by a mini EncaiWagon (2 votes by Rikae & Kitanna).

Then in close succession and some cross-voting we had two votes for both Zil (Wyth & Encai) and MacLion (Zil & Gil).

After Mac understandably voted for Zil, Greenie, Myself and Eönwë lynched MacLion.

So people did vote kind of in pairs!

Only people who didn't were Copper (the very first vote of the Day to Eomer) and one of tha last votes by Lommy (to Kitanna).

Boromir88

06-29-2014, 01:26 PM

In a hurry not much time...

++Lommy

Gil-Galad

06-29-2014, 01:30 PM

As I said earlier, another quiet day. Only one that really stands out too me is Lommy. One of my earlier suspicions from Day 1

++Lommy

Coppermirror

06-29-2014, 01:32 PM

Kitanna:
In favour of voting her:
Ah. Her Day #2 Enca vote that could have been an attempt to set up an alternative to a Mac (or Inzil) lynch. If somebody was trying to save him, it was most likely to be her.
Possible "no lions" Lionish slip about G55's posts.
Mixed points: Mac puts her on his Day 1 suspicious list, but says it's flimsy - good cover for her?
He continues to hedge at #131 about her and others.
Kit makes lots of mixed statements about Mac's guilt and non-guilt.
At #179 Mac might be trying to suggest one of Kit, Boro and Rikae was dreamed innocent.
Against voting her:

Lommy had been talking about people rushing to defend Kit from left and right the whole game even if she hadn't been suspected heavily at all. Answering my query about who those would have been she gave a list which is as follows: Mac, Cop, Encai, Nog, Rikae.

Now Mac was a lion - but Kit tried to run for Encai I myself had been suspecting for other reasons. And Lommy was hoping to vote for Kit or Encai, not willing to vote Mac. Very interesting mess indeed!

This has caught my eye. I'm going to re-evaluate my suspicions.
Most suspicious: Kit and Lommy
Medium suspicion: Eomer and Lottie
(rest of list as before)

I'm going to vote for either Kit or Lommy, but I haven't decided which yet.

Edit: crossed since Lottie at #297

Inziladun

06-29-2014, 01:33 PM

I wanted to stick around longer, but this internet thing means I should vote while I can.

I'm really not convinced about Kit by any means, but I don't have anyone that I'd feel more comfortable voting. Her voting has been safe, and there was the infamous "slip", and the stuff with Mac...

++Kit

Encaitare

06-29-2014, 01:34 PM

I have the feeling everyone is just waiting in the wings to see how people are going to vote, so I suppose I should just go ahead and do it.

++Kitanna

In addition to points that Greenie, Nogrod, and Lommy have made, she was a Skip voter, and I think it's weird how she latched on to a silly comment of mine.

EDIT: Yep, here come the votes. Cross-posted with Boro, Gil, Cop, and Inzil.

Thinlómien

06-29-2014, 01:34 PM

Do I read some contempt here? :)Contempt?? Consult you dictionary, sir.

Lommy: She's been pretty cautious and quiet this game.Cautious and quiet, me? Are you reading the thread at all? :p

Nog, interesting notions about wagons. Not sure if they tell us much, though. This game is quite big so people have been seemingly trying to avoid spreading the vote too much and thus what might have been single random votes in smaller games have been random miniwagons in this game? Maybe?

edit: xed with everyone after Boro

satansaloser2005

06-29-2014, 01:35 PM

I am inclined to vote....

Lommy - My biggest warning light is for her comment on Dun vs. Mac (where she feels Dun would be a better choice but votes Kit after saying she's not keen on voting either of the lads), which to me seems like avoiding candidates for her own reasons, something that looks not great in light of the fact that we now know Mac was a wolf. My pet theory about that at the moment is that Lommy knew Dun to be an innocent, but suspected Kit might be gifted and tried to make a run at eliminating her instead. Also for the bad vibes I am getting from her posts toDay, particularly how she tells us to focus on Mac's wolfishness rather than the Night kill. Using a dead wolf's words against him is useful, certainly, but Night kills can also be telling, and I feel her push away from that is something to be concerned about.

Copper - Not going to lie, this is for entirely grudge-based reasons. :p

Prince Boro - He has been oddly quiet (though with this deadline I'm not entirely surprised), and what he has said seems oddly....cautious, perhaps? I'm not sure how to describe it, but I feel he's hiding something, and at this point I'm more inclined to think he is hiding guilt rather than innocence, partly for reasons I'm a bit too rushed to corroborate.

Rikae - This is based mostly on gut, but also because of her comment in this post (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=692584&postcount=348) where she says she thought Mac might have a special role. This of course leads me to believe her bear rather than wolf (as why would she say that as a wolf unless she were playing a very bold game and were willing to throw poor Mac under the bus in such a grotesque fashion, something I believe her capable of but simply don't think was necessary), but reducing the Night kills improves our chances against the wolves, so ridding ourselves of the werebear is still a priority.

I am inclined to trust....

Nog - Apart from his vote on Day 1, which makes me think him innocent-ish anyway, I honestly feel more quiet players would be dead by now if Nog were a wolf (or the werebear, for that matter), because reindeer irritate the man so.

Eomer - See that which was discussed earlier toDay, which I believe a wolf or an Eobear would have avoided.

Kit - Despite what others have claimed of her, I feel she would be more of a smooth criminal (I regret nothing) than she has played herself to be thus far. That could be a trap, of course, but that's where my mind currently stands. (Also see notes on Lommy above.)

Dun - I don't think Lommy would be sloppy enough to introduce another candidate if the two front runners were her packmates. Seriously, that's kind of it. If I am proven wrong about either Dun or Lommy, the other will almost certainly switch categories, but Lommy is my stronger feeling at present.

I am inclined to ignore....

Everyone else - Because there's simply not enough time to list everyone.

x'd to an insane level

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 01:36 PM

What I was trying to say in my former post was then this: there was not only a ZilWagon yesterDay but also a mini EncaiWagon - which interestingly emerged just after MacLion had received his first vote. And I kind of remember there were couple of others voicing some concern on Encai at that time (myself at least, and Lommy or Greenie I think?).

So did Rikae and Kitanna just honestly think Encai looked that suspicious at that time - immediately after Mac's first vote - and just had to vote her then and there (especially Kit's vote aka. the latter one would look a bit dubious)? Or could it be that one of them saw a chance to open up a new Wagon to lessen the stress on Mac?

EDIT: X'd from the votes...

WythDryden

06-29-2014, 01:37 PM

I think I'm ready to put my vote in. After feeling pretty convinced about Mac being a lion, I managed to talk myself out of voting for him yesterDay, and it's fortunate that he got lynched in spite of that. I think when Nog posts:

but also to avoid the situation where we need to mull over the same question toMorrow.

he makes a pretty good point.

++Kitanna

Edit: Wow, X'd since Boro #399

Coppermirror

06-29-2014, 01:37 PM

++Kitanna

Edit: crossed since Nog at #406

Kitanna

06-29-2014, 01:38 PM

I don't really get this "slip" I made. I explained what I meant, but :rolleyes:

That's basically what I'm thinking - could it be that easy?

No
It was with Mac, but will lightning strike twice?
And it won't.

But please, go ahead and vote for me to assuage your fears. Otherwise you'll never be sure.

++Enca

I stand by my points from yesterday and her vote yesterday was conveniently placed.

I'm sorry I wasn't very vocal today. I had some RL projects to tend to.

Loslote

06-29-2014, 01:39 PM

++Kit

For the reasons I mentioned in my earlier post.

EDIT: xed since Wythy D

Thinlómien

06-29-2014, 01:40 PM

Prince Boro - He has been oddly quiet (though with this deadline I'm not entirely surprised), and what he has said seems oddly....cautious, perhaps? I'm not sure how to describe it, but I feel he's hiding something, and at this point I'm more inclined to think he is hiding guilt rather than innocence, partly for reasons I'm a bit too rushed to corroborate.Cautious? Not toDay at least, with his loud defense of Kitanna and attack against me.

Also, I agree that it's better to find out about

++Kitanna

(plus if I'm the other vote candidate, even more reason to go for her)

edit: xed with Kit and Lottie

satansaloser2005

06-29-2014, 01:42 PM

I think killing Kit would be a horrible, horrible mistake.

++Lommy

Kitanna

06-29-2014, 01:43 PM

I think killing Kit would be a horrible, horrible mistake.

++Lommy

Thanks Sally, I'll be sure not to haunt you

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 01:43 PM

Contempt?? Consult you dictionary, sir.Oops, sorry. Discontent was what I meant... :o

satansaloser2005

06-29-2014, 01:44 PM

Thanks Sally, I'll be sure not to haunt you

No problem, Princess. :Merisu:

(Although if I'm wrong and you're a wolf, you're in trouble. So very much trouble.)

Thinlómien

06-29-2014, 01:45 PM

Err Sally and Kit??

Kitanna

06-29-2014, 01:46 PM

No problem, Princess. :Merisu:

(Although if I'm wrong and you're a wolf, you're in trouble. So very much trouble.)
If I am I didn't get the memo.

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 01:47 PM

Okay.

++ Kitanna

I think killing Kit would be a horrible, horrible mistake.

No problem, Princess.

Might it be we are getting the bear's lover?

Well, if it ends the Night kills, then good.

Kitanna

06-29-2014, 01:49 PM

Might it be we are getting the bear's lover?

I don't know about Sally, but I'm an ordo who just wanted some ale.

Gil-Galad

06-29-2014, 01:50 PM

Okay.

++ Kitanna

Might it be we are getting the bear's lover?

Well, if it ends the Night kills, then good.

I was just thinking about this discussion, and I think you are right. We might have gotten ourselves a Bear/maiden.

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 01:50 PM

I don't know about Sally, but I'm an ordo who just wanted some ale.We'll see that in ten minutes...

But if you're true, then, well... Sally's reaction beats me.

Thinlómien

06-29-2014, 01:51 PM

Kitanna, whatever else you are, you are a troll. *anxiously waits for DL*

edit: xed with Gil and Nog

satansaloser2005

06-29-2014, 01:51 PM

Might it be we are getting the bear's lover?

Well, if it ends the Night kills, then good.

It also gains the wolves a cobbler, which isn't so good. The good news is that the admin thread finally loaded for me and it's not nearly as bad as I'd previously thought (I'd gotten it into my head that the bear would kill someone when his maiden died or vice versa).

Rikae

06-29-2014, 01:53 PM

Good, made it back in time.

I had suspected Eomer, but Nog(?)'s catch makes him look better. Lommy I initially suspected of hinting to the bear (perhaps the bear hinting to the lions?) but her posts on Day 2 made me think otherwise.

Kitanna I find innocentish after looking at Mac. As for wolf-slips, I don't generally believe in them. 90% of the time it's just a misunderstanding (innocent or otherwise).

For toDay's and yesterDay's reasons, I'm going to vote:

++Encaitare

I'm becoming wary of Boro, though. It's also eerie how both he and Wyth have talked about lions flying under the radar when they are doing so themselves (more than anyone else, even).

Edit: X'd with this entire page.

Thinlómien

06-29-2014, 01:54 PM

It also gains the wolves a cobbler, which isn't so good. The good news is that the admin thread finally loaded for me and it's not nearly as bad as I'd previously thought (I'd gotten it into my head that the bear would kill someone when his maiden died or vice versa)....what?? You just confessed?

edit: xed with Rikae

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-29-2014, 01:54 PM

Curious. Sally, your post is rather weird. Hmm...

Kitanna

06-29-2014, 01:54 PM

Kitanna, whatever else you are, you are a troll. *anxiously waits for DL*

*shrug*
Now that I'm able to be on I may as well live my last moments up and proclaim my innocence even if it isn't believed.

WythDryden

06-29-2014, 01:55 PM

. It's also eerie how both he and Wyth have talked about lions flying under the radar when they are doing so themselves (more than anyone else, even).

If I had more to contribute, I would. :P

Edit: X/d Lom #425

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 01:55 PM

It also gains the wolves a cobbler, which isn't so good.Needs to check the rules indeed...

Gil-Galad

06-29-2014, 01:55 PM

*shrug*
Now that I'm able to be on I may as well live my last moments up and proclaim my innocence even if it isn't believed.

I hope this is true, otherwise shame on you for guilt-tripping us.

satansaloser2005

06-29-2014, 01:55 PM

My computer's being a brat, so this is likely all I'll say before Day's end (unless it starts behaving again).

If Kit's a lion I'll flay myself...

Short version: Observe what I believe to be Prince Bearomir hinting at his role.

x'd since my last

Coppermirror

06-29-2014, 01:55 PM

Wow, the currently active users list says 13. It's so strange to have that many players in the game. Interesting, but hard to keep track of everybody.

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 01:56 PM

*shrug*
Now that I'm able to be on I may as well live my last moments up and proclaim my innocence even if it isn't believed.I guess the Bear's lover could be counted technically as an innocent?

Rikae

06-29-2014, 01:56 PM

So you aren't the ranger, Kit?

*whew*

satansaloser2005

06-29-2014, 01:57 PM

So you aren't the ranger, Kit?

*whew*

She's actually a werewolf pretending to be the ranger pretending to be the maiden pretending to be an ordo.

:smokin:

NOT A THING.

Thinlómien

06-29-2014, 01:58 PM

*head exploding piece by piece which is not helped by the fact that I'm half watching Disney's Tarzan which has to be the most confusing cartoon ever*

edit: xed with Sally

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-29-2014, 01:59 PM

++BORO

He's up to something. I know this is "throwing my vote away" apparently but I'll hopefully get to look into it next day.

Thinlómien

06-29-2014, 01:59 PM

Sally whatever the case yuo're not going to die now. :confused::confused::confused:

edit: xed with Eomer

satansaloser2005

06-29-2014, 02:00 PM

Sally whatever the case yuo're not going to die now. :confused::confused::confused:

I....beg your pardon? o_O

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 02:00 PM

lovers. Only win if both survive till the end (regardless of whether it's the Lions or the Inn who win the rest of the game). Can communicate at night. The Bear, being a Werebear, kills one person a night as long as the the Maiden is alive. If one dies, the remaining lover then chooses to help the side that did not kill their lover (that is, becomes effectively an ordo if they're night killed, or cobbler if they're lynched). NB: don't read too much into the choice of gender pronouns.So.

Nogrod

06-29-2014, 02:01 PM

Sally started cobblerism already...

Aganzir

06-29-2014, 02:01 PM

Night gathers and your sleep begins.

You have lynched Kitanna, plain ordinary illiterate Kitanna. How unjust.

Narration is pouncing towards you.

Aganzir

06-29-2014, 02:41 PM

"We've definitely got one of them!" Nogrod shouted. "Those disgusting lovers under this roof, they're probably the reason for all these murders with their bizarre relationship!"

”Take your filthy and unnatural love elsewhere!” cried Lommy.

”Is loving a crime, though?” sally mused. ”What bad could result from two human beings caring for each other?”

”Emphasis on 'human',” said Lottie.

”Guys, I am actually single,” Kitanna interrupted, but nobody listened to her.

"We need to get rid of this abomination." Eönwë cried. "Maybe if we take her down, we'll rid ourselves of her foul partner as well!"

"Erm, guys, I don't have a partner." Kitanna tried again.

"Yeah!" Green joined in. "And if we do that, maybe some of these violent murders will stop!"

"People, I am not in a relationship!" Kitanna shouted.

”What's that thing between us then?” sally asked, mock-affronted.

”What are you talking about?” asked Kitanna.

Meanwhile, Encai was pulling the wagon the musicians had carried their instruments in towards the group standing in the tavern. It clinked and clattered as it went, still full of flutes and drums and guitars and bagpipes and horns and other noisy objects.

”Could somebody give me a hand?” she cried.

"Of course!" answered Green.

"I will!" said Cop.

"Sure Encai!" agreed Wyth.

"No problem," said Inzil.

Many voices joined the chorus, none entirely sure what they were being asked to do, but all keen to be involved. Dragging the heavy wagon along behind them, the patrons managed to get it up to quite a speed as it headed into the inn towards Kitanna, who stood directly in its path. She was surrounded by heavy tables and benches, and there was nowhere to run to avoid the madly musical thing now hurtling towards her at full speed.

”Oh no, it's a bandwagon!” she gasped the moment before it squeezed her to death against the wall.

Kitanna showed no signs of changing, and nobody went into hysterics over her corpse. The patrons were forced to conclude that they had been wrong.

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - murdered by lions on Night 2
Macalaure - Lannister lion - stabbed through on Day 2
Nerwen – ordo – interrupted by bear on Night 3
Volo – ordo – ripped apart by lions on Night 3
Kitanna, ordo - died under a bandwagon on Day 3

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit
Nogrod - house Swann
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

It is now Night 4.

Aganzir

06-30-2014, 02:00 PM

Coppermirror woke up in the middle of the night when somebody tapped politely on her door.

“Who is it?” she asked in a quavering voice, fearing the worst.

“Room service,” a rumbling voice called.

“Oh, okay,” Cop said and opened the door.
It was the Bear.

“Wait...? Where's the food?” Cop asked.

“Standing in front of me,” the Bear said.

Confused, Cop looked behind her. "But there's no one else here ... oh." Her face only had time to look crestfallen for a few fleeting seconds, before it was eagerly chewed off by the exasperated bear.

**

Meanwhile, the lions were busy. Chuckling, they leaped up the stairs, past the odd lump that was either sally or sally's straw-stuffed clothes and that was mourning over Kitanna's corpse (completely innocently, of course).

Not long after, they bounced back down carrying a squirming body. Throwing the body down on the ground in the kitchen, they stepped back to let it up.

"What? What's going on?" A trembling Gil asked.

"Why, it's time for breakfast!" The golden wolf replied cheerfully. "And as you are our resident baker, we thought you could do the honours."

"You want me to cook breakfast for you?" Gil queried. "That's it?"

Looking as if butter wouldn't melt in their mouths, the wolves smiled down at him. "Oh yes," they said, "that's it."

"Well, alright then." And Gil got to work.

He spent the better part of the night baking a beautiful, flaky pie crust, but when he reached for the mince, the silver lion stopped him.

“Oh no,” she said, smirking, “there's no need for that!”

“No offense, but I think I know best how to make a good pie,” answered Gil.

“We are sure you do,” grinned the golden lion.

“You'll make a good pie,” said the other.

*

In the morning, the patrons woke up to a lovely smell drifting upstairs. Hungry, they rushed to the tavern, and found a steaming hot pie on the table. There was a note:

Gil-Galad wishes you a good morning!

Thrilled by this turn of events, the customers dug into the beautiful pie and in no time at all the whole thing was gone.

"Where is Gil?" sally asked.

"Yes, where? I would love to say thank you for this lovely surprise." Eönwë added.

Thus began an inn-wide search for the mysteriously absent baker. A search that ended in the kitchen where, to the horror of all, the skin of the thing that had once been Gil was found, having been hastily tucked under the oven.

"Wait, if that's Gil's skin ... where's the rest of him?" Disbelieving eyes met across the room.

"No." Lommy whispered.
"The pie ..." Encai gasped.

As one, the patrons ran from the room. The slow rise of the sun was punctuated that morning by the sounds of desperate retching from nearly every room.

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - murdered by lions on Night 2
Macalaure - Lannister lion - stabbed through on Day 2
Nerwen – ordo – interrupted by bear on Night 3
Volo – ordo – ripped apart by lions on Night 3
Kitanna, ordo - died under a bandwagon on Day 3
Coppermirror, ordo - snacked on by bear on Night 4
Gil-Galad, ordo - served to the Inn in a pie of his own making on Night 4

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Nogrod - house Swann
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

Day 4 has started.

Encaitare

06-30-2014, 02:03 PM

Here are the votes from yesterDay, including notes of who cross-voted with whom.

Greenie --> Kitanna
Boromir --> Lommy
Gil-Galad --> Lommy (2)
Inziladun --> Kitanna (2)
Encai --> Kitanna (3) *cross-posted with 3 previous votes*
Wyth --> Kitanna (4) *cross-posted with 4 previous votes*
Copper --> Kitanna (5) *cross-posted with 1 previous vote*
Kitanna --> Encai
Loslote --> Kitanna (6) *cross-posted with 3 previous votes*
Lommy --> Kitanna (7) *cross-posted with 2 previous votes*
Sally --> Lommy (3)
Nogrod --> Kitanna (8)
Rikae --> Encai (2) *cross-posted with 8 previous votes*
Eomer --> Boromir

Did not vote: Eonwe

Nogrod

06-30-2014, 02:06 PM

Meanwhile, the lions were busy. Chuckling, they leaped up the stairs, past the odd lump that was either sally or sally's straw-stuffed clothes and that was mourning over Kitanna's corpse (completely innocently, of course).
Now what is this supposed to mean - adding Sally's behaviour in the end of yesterDay?

Is there a secret role or... *goes to check the rules*

Aganzir

06-30-2014, 02:08 PM

Now what is this supposed to mean - adding Sally's behaviour in the end of yesterDay?

Is there a secret role or... *goes to check the rules*
Clarification: no, there's no secret role, it was just a request that we didn't see in time for yesterday's narration (hence the "completely innocently" part).

Thinlómien

06-30-2014, 02:12 PM

Dead ordos left and right. Apparently it's too much to hope for that the baddies would ever kill each other - statistically it should have already happened, right...? Well, let's try to enjoy the suspense.

Still very baffled about Kitanna. I was so sure she was a wolf, but maybe this was one of the instances when the most logial option is false... Need to do a lot of rethinking toDay.

Also, Sally, care to clarify your trolling yesterDay? You had probably half of us thinking we're not getting a wolf after all but a lover.

Nogrod

06-30-2014, 02:15 PM

it was just a request that we didn't see in time for yesterday's narration (hence the "completely innocently" part).Sadly that doesn't explain anything... I even went back to see the previous page but found nothing to explain that. Or maybe I'm just stupid and don't see something obvious?

Thinlómien

06-30-2014, 02:16 PM

Also, help, my ominous maths from Day1 is back:

Our odds are still pretty good, but given that we're 12 and there's 2 wolves and 2 lovers, it's worth bearing in mind (PUN NOT INTENDED BUT NOTED, GREENIE) that 1/3 of the people in the village have some priority other than simply lynching the most suspicious-looking person.

Nogrod

06-30-2014, 02:18 PM

So to be clear...

Is it presumed that we should be able to understand something from the Night's narration considering Sally or not aka has Sally something to do with the Night's happenings or not - or is that going to be exactly the stinger you wish to make us mad mulling over - or was it just a funny but gamewise insignificant mention in the narration?

Encaitare

06-30-2014, 02:22 PM

The Lions' choice to kill Gil-Galad first struck me as a "safe" kill. Gil had been quietish and wasn't under much suspicion. But now I'm seeing that Gil was one of the only 3 to vote for Lommy. If the wolves were looking for a "safe" kill, they could have chosen one of the many voters on the Kitwagon.

New theory: Lommy received the second-highest number of votes yesterday. If she is a Lion, it could be that she and her fellow Lion made a risky choice to kill Gil, and hope the inn's guests wouldn't think she'd kill one of the three who voted for her.

As for the Lovers' choice to kill Coppermirror, there are three possibilities:
1. They are trying to lie low (like their kill of Nerwen might indicate)
2. They got a Lionish vibe from Cop (maybe they suspected a Lion under the radar)
3. They have chosen to side with the Lions (either for now or permanently, seems unlikely, but always possible)

The whole thing with Sally completely baffles me, and I hope she is here toDay to explain herself.

Aganzir

06-30-2014, 02:22 PM

Inziladun

06-30-2014, 02:28 PM

New theory: Lommy received the second-highest number of votes yesterday. If she is a Lion, it could be that she and her fellow Lion made a risky choice to kill Gil, and hope the inn's guests wouldn't think she'd kill one of the three who voted for her.

It's not impossible, but as you said there were safer targets a LommyLion could have pushed for.

As for the Lovers' choice to kill Coppermirror, there are three possibilities:
1. They are trying to lie low (like their kill of Nerwen might indicate)
2. They got a Lionish vibe from Cop (maybe they suspected a Lion under the radar)
3. They have chosen to side with the Lions (either for now or permanently, seems unlikely, but always possible)

Numbers-wise it makes sense still for the Lovers to side with the village. Did they think Cop was a Lion who'd been lying low? She'd been fairly under the radar and uncontroversial.

The whole thing with Sally completely baffles me, and I hope she is here toDay to explain herself.

Who's the more odd, Sally or Boro? :rolleyes:

Nogrod

06-30-2014, 02:33 PM

As I said, NO - it was a funny but gamewise insignificant mention.Thanks.

Now back to the Germany vs. Algeria game... It's hilarious and quite interesting as Algeria is totally dominating Germany... who would have thought of that?

Back later.

Thinlómien

06-30-2014, 02:37 PM

Encaitare

06-30-2014, 02:37 PM

Numbers-wise it makes sense still for the Lovers to side with the village. Did they think Cop was a Lion who'd been lying low? She'd been fairly under the radar and uncontroversial.

Yes, numbers-wise it does, so I hope they are still on our side. Either they thought Cop was a very stealthy Lion, or they were going for a "safe" kill. Maybe as more Ordos get killed, the Lovers are getting nervous about both surviving to the end.

Who's the more odd, Sally or Boro? :rolleyes:

Seriously. I would feel a lot better about his quietness if he wasn't acting so strange about it. Boro, where the heck are you?

Thinlómien

06-30-2014, 02:43 PM

Seriously. I would feel a lot better about his quietness if he wasn't acting so strange about it. Boro, where the heck are you?Well, yesterDay he wasn't quiet but rather quite all over the place. Since Kitanna turned out to be innocent, he would look quite wolvish to me, except I'm not sure if wolf-Boro would make such a show of himself.

Either they thought Cop was a very stealthy Lion, or they were going for a "safe" kill. Maybe as more Ordos get killed, the Lovers are getting nervous about both surviving to the end.The only thing that stands out to me is that Cop is quite a similar kill choice to Nerwen - someone posting more analysis than opinions and not generally very suspected. Maybe they're multi-tasking the same way I was multi-tasking as a seer last game: go for more easily readable wolf suspects during the Day, for more difficultly readable possible wolves at Night.

Inziladun

06-30-2014, 02:43 PM

Seriously. I would feel a lot better about his quietness if he wasn't acting so strange about it. Boro, where the heck are you?

As vexing as he's been at times, try as I might I can't see a BoroLion acting the way his has. Why draw such attention to himself? Granted, it could an evil scheme on the part of him and his partner, but it still seems awfully reckless.

x/d with Lommy

Encaitare

06-30-2014, 02:45 PM

My theory is that Gil was generally unsuspected and quiet, so a good kill. Less chaotic than he used to be, so maybe even a gifted. Obviously the only trace in his posting leading to an innocent wouldn't have been something bad in their eyes either, and Encai being so quick to grasp at that trail doesn't make her look very good to me. Really, if I was a wolf, I'd have killed almost anyone but Gil.

A fair point. I haven't played in so long that I don't have a solid grasp of anyone's playing style anymore, but if you say he's acting different than usual, the Lions may very well have thought he was a gifted.

Well, yesterDay he wasn't quiet but rather quite all over the place. Since Kitanna turned out to be innocent, he would look quite wolvish to me, except I'm not sure if wolf-Boro would make such a show of himself.

The whole "vanishing" act is getting rather old...

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-30-2014, 02:55 PM

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-30-2014, 03:02 PM

Day 1: Gil voted for Boro. No vote from Cop.
Day 2: Cop voted for Eomer (me). Gil voted Mac.
Day 3: Gil voted Lommy. Cop voted Kit.

Make of that what you will.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-30-2014, 03:04 PM

Sorry for triple posting, but you can't edit in WW. :p

So Cop as a no trace kill from the bear.

Gil to set up Lommy, or bluff from Lommy?

Inziladun

06-30-2014, 03:05 PM

Encaitare

06-30-2014, 03:44 PM

A summary of the Kitwagon for Eomer:

YesterDay, it appeared that Nog, Inzil, and Lommy were the first few to voice suspicion of Kitanna. This was due to "safe voting," her apparently trying to take pressure off of Mac, Mac's defense of Kit the Day before, and Kit's analysis of the Lovers instead of the Lions.

Then, Greenie did a lengthy analysis of Kit's activity, post #374. It was quiet for some time after that, and then Greenie cast her vote for Kit. Nogrod said in #392 that he might vote for Kit, so we can find out what she is and not have to wonder anymore. I also voiced suspicion of Kitanna because she was a Skip voter. Loslote suspected either Kit or Rikae for largely keeping out of bandwagons.

Finally the voting took off, and you can see the voting order in my post #445.

WythDryden

06-30-2014, 04:36 PM

A few preliminary thoughts on people so far.

Encaitare - Quick to look at Lommy at #452. Lommy has amassed some suspicions, maybe tries playing the angle that we wouldn't suspect someone so obvious (fear of making the same mistake as was made on kit?), therefore making us suspect the obvious. Possible wolf-tactic. Her point of the possiblity of the lovers joining the wolves is a pretty good one I think, now that we're dropping numbers maybe they're getting shifty?

Thinlómien - Quick to point back at Enca over possible wolfy behaviour. Though the way she does it seems pretty wolfy to me as well.

Boromir88 - As absent as he was Boro pretty outspokenly defended Kit, who we now know was an innocent. Looking better than he did to me yesterday, but still has been a bit odd. Could just be hard to judge if he hasn't been having much time to commit because of RL. I don't know about him though.

Eomer - Wants us to disregard the night kills. While I think analyzing Mac's links is important, I think going down all avenues of clues is important. It always seems weird when someone says let's not think about that too much, even if there isn't much to glean from what could be little-to-no trace kills. Points out himself that Cop voted for him on day 2. That could possibly be an attempt at beating someone else to the point, to make himself look good, but I don't know.

Sally - Defended Kit in #405, but didn't actually put her vote against Lommy until Kit had amassed 7 votes. A wolf would know that she's innocent so it'd be relatively safe to suddenly stick up for her so much (and be right), especially when it's that likely she's going to get the axe. Play to make herself look good?

I feel that raising suspicion on so many people, but also providing counter-points is non-committal and vague (and look pretty wolfish), but as it stands it's getting harder to trust anyone. My votes also may not have looked good. I voted for Kit based on a(n) (innocent) slip, safish votes, and the fact that Mac put her in his trusted list and thought he might be hiding a packmate there, as well as her vote on skip. I definitely feel like I've been pretty successfully manipulated through day 2 and 3. Not sure who is responsible, but the strange feeling that Nog is the most capable, who I've felt good about thus far. Ack.

Boromir88

06-30-2014, 04:54 PM

Short version: Observe what I believe to be Prince Bearomir hinting at his role.

House Bolton = flay our prisoners. Banner = the flayed man. Making a reference to say I didn't think she was a wolf, based on her Day 2 vote. That sort of vote and the reasons aren't one a Lion makes in those situations if she was attempting to help Mac.

Boro - really weird toDay, and his conviction of Kitanna's innocence in strange. Also he talks about yesterDay's voting like he knows Kitanna and Zil are innocent, which is slightly alarming.

Actually I never said anything about Zil's innocence. I'm still slightly suspicious for a possibility that their interaction Day 2 was all a lion-on-lion act. It at least set up nicely for stage lion-on-lion fight, and I noted the convenience that they wouldn't have to worry about the seer, so whoever came out unlynched wouldn't have to worry about being checked. I just find your actions and desire to get attention away from Mac and Inzil to be more suspicious. And this...

Okay, so either Boro and Kit are lovers, or Borowolf is going a bit too far in latching onto Kit who he knows is innocent. This does not fit with my theory that Wilwa dreamt of innocent!Boro though. But seriously, I don't understand at all why Boro has suddenly decided to become Kitanna's knight in shining armour, again when really hasn't been that much suspicion against her. (Notable also that he attacks me, the person who has probably suspected Kitanna the most.)

This just doesn't sound like normal innocent Lommy flip-flopping. I state Kit's vote doesn't make sense if she's a lion...and your mind goes to either...

1. We're lovers (false)
2. I'm a lion latching onto someone I know is innocent (false).

No consideration that I'm just exceptionally good at reading people's motivations and get a good feeling on whether a person's voting is innocent or not?

He's up to something. I know this is "throwing my vote away" apparently but I'll hopefully get to look into it next day.

Of course. If I'm giving a cryptic and creepy vibe then even better, because we all have a character to play and I try my best to play it. I'm actually not being paid to make Greenie's head hurt, but if anyone wants to pay me for that, I won't object.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-30-2014, 04:56 PM

Eomer - Wants us to disregard the night kills. While I think analyzing Mac's links is important, I think going down all avenues of clues is important. It always seems weird when someone says let's not think about that too much, even if there isn't much to glean from what could be little-to-no trace kills.

Just to clarify, Wyth, all of you may spend as much time dissecting the reasons for the night kills as much as you want. All I'm saying (intuitively, mind you - I could be persuaded otherwise) is that since the Seer is gone, I don't find very much use in analysing them. They gotta kill somebody. Anybody could fit.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-30-2014, 05:05 PM

But I'm just now remembering the Targaryen/Hunter :rolleyes: so maybe I'm being too dismissive. Still, are the villains actively trying to kill the Hunter while there are still plenty players left in the game? By that, I mean: are they purposely killing those who are publicly suspecting the wrong people (innocents)? Could be an argument in favour of Lommy's innocence (Gil voted her yesterday).

Nogrod

06-30-2014, 05:19 PM

I want someone, or more than one person, to explain in just a few sentences why Kitanna was suddenly top suspect yesterday. That whole situation was strange to me.If not a red flag, then at least an orange one here.

No innocent knew yesterDay that Kit is as innocent. Instead there were multiple reasons why it looked she was a pretty decent candidate for being in cahoots with MacLion. So the kind of smug "would someone tell me why" -attitude kind of jumps out... I mean yes, you can make a comment if you have strongly disagreed with others about a mass-lynch the earlier Day (especially if you had expressed your reasons openly beforehand when the end-result was not known) and if you have showed some reasons why you were correct the Day before, you might even pressure others to explain why they thought their reasons were better than yours - the Day before.

And in that case, you might look forwards for others to have some respect for your sharpness... But this case looks nothing like that. On the contrary. A wolf did know already yesterDay Kit was not one of them so a wolf could afford the smugness.

That is not to say that no lion voted for Kitanna. It is possible, if not probable at least one of them did as it would have been a nice and easy place to hide.

But I'd quess they'd both not do that. Let's call that an educated hunch (it's nothing more - but having been a wolf on several games I know they normally, on average, wish to act a bit differently).

An other thing that caught my eye toDay was Encai and her interpretations... I'll be back with them later as I see people have been posting.

Loslote

06-30-2014, 05:19 PM

Cop suspected four people yesterDay: Eomer, Lommy, myself, and, later, Kit. I remember being a little surprised by that, since of the original three suspicions, two of us (Eomer and myself) were not generally considered suspicious, and in fact, both of us were pretty generally agreed upon to have done things that looked more innocent than not. Cop's suspicion of Eomer and myself was unusual relative to the suspicions most people had that Day. If Cop was killed as a no-trace kill, it seems interesting to me that the bear chose someone with such unusual suspicions. My guess is that Cop was one of the few people who didn't suspect the bear and/or maiden to some degree. This means that Lommy, Eomer, and myself are probably not the bear or the maiden (though keep in mind that this says nothing about their potential for lionhood).

So, who among us are generally suspected, other than Lommy? I would say, Enca or maybe Boro. My guess is that one of those two are our bear and/or maiden - and if I'm remembering the rules right, when we lynch either one, we drop down a Night kill. What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?

EDIT: xed with Nog

Nogrod

06-30-2014, 05:27 PM

This means that Lommy, Eomer, and myself are probably not the bear or the maiden (though keep in mind that this says nothing about their potential for lionhood).
-----
What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?:D

This must be one of the best I have ever seen!

Let me see...

"X, Y and Myself probably are not "Jinx", so how about we hunt for "Jinx" toDay (because I'm not one, you see - at least according to my own nice theory) and not the boring old wolves we'd usually go for?"

:rolleyes:

Loslote

06-30-2014, 05:33 PM

:D

This must be one of the best I have ever seen!

Let me see...

"X, Y and Myself probably are not "Jinx", so how about we hunt for "Jinx" toDay (because I'm not one, you see - at least according to my own nice theory) and not the boring old wolves we'd usually go for?"

:rolleyes:

Sure, except for how I also said somewhere in the middle there "and by the same argument A or B might be "Jinx", so do we want to try our luck with lynching A or B, or do we want to focus on the wolves". If we want to focus on the wolves, that's fine. However, I thought Cop's death was too strange to be passed over completely, and I used the information I had to reach a logical suspicion. Normally, at this point, I would have simply moved Enca and Boro to my "suspicious" list. However, I suspect that one of them is the bear and/or maiden, and it really is a question whether or not we want to use a lynch on a bear suspicion, so I decided to pose the question to the village at this point rather than jumping in feet-first.

Eomer of the Rohirrim

06-30-2014, 05:42 PM

Ok Nogrod, I know for sure that you were pushing for a Kitanna lynch. For what its worth, I still consider you likely innocent for other reasons (see previous posts); but I hardly think it's reasonable to jump on me like that.

I checked in early, and nothing much had happened. I then went to work on my RL assignment. Checking back later, suddenly Kit was the top suspect. I'm simply asking what happened, because reading back through the thread, the case against her came out of nowhere.

Nogrod

06-30-2014, 05:44 PM

To add on my earlier comment on Lottie's suggestion... I'd say we stick to searching the treacherous Lannister Lions because with them we at least have a clue (MacLion) and we know their general modus operandi ie. we have some ideas about what kind of things to look.

With the Bear we have basically nothing - and so trying to find a Bear is quite futile. What would you Lottie think would be the "Bearmarks" you'd go searching?

I also agree with Eomer that with the Seer gone the Night kills are kind of open to any interprettions because there is no clear agenda anymore. They can kill anyone they wish.

As a general rule I'd presume they'd kill people who would be hard to lynch, but even there I think I have been disproven in this game (fex. killing Volo - whom they'd have quite an easy game to get lynched after his last minute vote).

So fex. killing Cop or Gil could be anyone's doing... they could even throw a dice.

Yes. They might wish to get rid of someone, even if that would be risky if they did that straightforwardly. But on the very same grounds they could bluff and "frame" someone as one the lions felt they had to do away with...

Sure, if you come uo with a believable scenario as to why the lovers came up with some specific kill-decision, I'm all ears. It would be really cool to catch them that way. I just don't quite see how we'd be able to accomplish that right now.

Nogrod

06-30-2014, 05:49 PM

I hardly think it's reasonable to jump on me like that.I don't think I was jumping on you. I was just pointing out that the kind of hindsight easily readable from your post is a kind of a flag - if not red then orange.

It might be a question of semantics though. To me it read like a little smug besserwissenschaft, but if it actually was just an honest question you willing to understand the reasons... well then I failed to read it from there. The eternal problem of doing things not in your mother-tongue...

Loslote

06-30-2014, 05:55 PM

With the Bear we have basically nothing - and so trying to find a Bear is quite futile. What would you Lottie think would be the "Bearmarks" you'd go searching?

...

Sure, if you come uo with a believable scenario as to why the lovers came up with some specific kill-decision, I'm all ears. It would be really cool to catch them that way. I just don't quite see how we'd be able to accomplish that right now.

Like I said before, Cop was unusual in suspected Eomer and myself, and was also somewhat unusual in not suspecting Enca and Boro. Most people did, to some extent, express at least some uneasiness towards both of them. Cop was the exception. The bear had to chose somehow, and if they or their maiden were already under suspicion, they would have wanted to avoid digging the hole deeper by killing someone who suspected them. Cop's unusual suspicions make sense as a bear target if Cop was one of the only people the bear could kill, since Cop was one of the only people who didn't suspect them at all. This points to Enca for sure, and maybe also Boro - but Enca is more likely according to this argument.

Nogrod

06-30-2014, 06:15 PM

Like I said before, Cop was unusual in suspected Eomer and myself, and was also somewhat unusual in not suspecting Enca and Boro. Most people did, to some extent, express at least some uneasiness towards both of them. Cop was the exception. The bear had to chose somehow, and if they or their maiden were already under suspicion, they would have wanted to avoid digging the hole deeper by killing someone who suspected them. Cop's unusual suspicions make sense as a bear target if Cop was one of the only people the bear could kill, since Cop was one of the only people who didn't suspect them at all. This points to Enca for sure, and maybe also Boro - but Enca is more likely according to this argument.Okay. That's a scenario.

But it's also a scenario full of if's... like any scenario we might build on the Bear at this point, I'm afraid.

First there's the "if" of the lovers being under suspicion aka. some pressure to be careful with their kills.

Now it seems you say that "exactly because them choosing Cop shows they were under pressure", but that is indeed begging the question as to whether there could have been any other reasons for the lovers to pick Cop?

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that Wyth and Greenie are the lovers - couldn't they just throw a coin and come up with Cop? The answer is, yes they could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that myself and Lommy are the lovers - couldn't we have decided that we want to keep around only people who contribute a lot of their own thoughts and not just quotes and thence picked Cop? The answer is, yes we could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that you Lottie and Eomer are the lovers - couldn't you have decided to get rid of Cop and her nasty suspicions and decide to make this kind of defence for it trying to sway us to look at is as it should be Encai and/or Boro? The answer is, yes you could.

Do you see this problem?

Loslote

06-30-2014, 06:31 PM

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that Wyth and Greenie are the lovers - couldn't they just throw a coin and come up with Cop? The answer is, yes they could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that myself and Lommy are the lovers - couldn't we have decided that we want to keep around only people who contribute a lot of their own thoughts and not just quotes and thence picked Cop? The answer is, yes we could.

Let's assume, for an argument's sake that you Lottie and Eomer are the lovers - couldn't you have decided to get rid of Cop and her nasty suspicions and decide to make this kind of defence for it trying to sway us to look at is as it should be Encai and/or Boro? The answer is, yes you could.

Do you see this problem?

Yes, I suppose so. I just found it strange that, of all the people, Cop - whose suspicions were so unique yesterDay - was killed. For most possible scenarios, it seems like we could find someone who would have better fit. (Though, admittedly, your Eomer-me theory wouldn't work with anyone else!) But, yeah, I guess it is a bit of a stretch.

Nogrod

06-30-2014, 06:44 PM

I seem to be so happy making different explanations as to forget to underline in the end their point... :(

So the point of the above different scenarios was that there are so many reasons and non-reasons for different lover-combinations to pick Cop last Night you can't quite pin point one that looks reasonable and think you got them.

Another thing before I go to sleep (it's 3.30 AM).

As I've had myself some problems following all the kills by the different sides I checked the Nightkills and they are as follows:

Bear
N2 Wilwa (seer)
N3 Nerwen
N4 Cop

Lions
N2 G55
N3 Volo
N4 Gil

I'm not sure if I can see any pattern there - in either of the lists. But please see them more closely if you can.

But I could say, that it somehow looks like after the terrible first gameNight kill the Bear and the maiden fair have been hunting possible lay-low lions.

Whether I am right or wrong with that interpretation, I'd say to the lovers that you should keep sticking (start to stick) with the village: we have better numbers to offer.

We are twelve all in all. 2 lions against 10 non-lions - and even if the Bear itself was not counted as a non-lion - it would still mean that we have at least 9 against 2 ratio when counting the winning conditions. So help us get the lions and you'll have better chances at winning.

The lionkills in turn... well, they make no sense to me. Especially the Volo-kill is just plain odd.

EDIT: X'd with Lottie.

satansaloser2005

06-30-2014, 07:31 PM

Not an exaggeration: If toDay does not end in us lynching someone who voted for Kit yesterDay, I am withdrawing from this game.

What with the midafternoon DL, inability to keep avatars straight when on my phone, and references I don't understand and therefore have to take at face value much to my apparent detriment, I have very little reason to keep playing at this point (other than the narrations, which have been fantastic, for which I heartily applaud our fair lady moddesses).

I have no other focus toDay. If we can't manage a more sensible lynch than the sham that was yesterDay, I have no further purpose here, and I'm done.

Speaking of toDay's lynch, I can think of no better place to look than those who for whatever reason (certainly not a sensible one) thought eliminating Kit was a good idea. Let's get started. Who voted Kit and why? No, really, why?

I have a headache and it's currently super hard to look at my computer. I'll be back in a bit when I'm medicated and fed.

Rikae

06-30-2014, 07:33 PM

I'm here and reading. I'd love to analyze everyone, but I've had an exhausting day and I really don't have the energy.

Nog is saying strange things. We have 8/10 non-lions, yes, but we have 6/10 innocents, and if we fail today and the ranger fails tonight, we have 3/7 toMorrow. That is to say, we lose tomorrow, against a bear/lion team.

We have to get toDay's vote right.

Edit: X'd with Sally

Loslote

06-30-2014, 07:41 PM

Nog is saying strange things. We have 8/10 non-lions, yes, but we have 6/10 innocents, and if we fail today and the ranger fails tonight, we have 3/7 toMorrow. That is to say, we lose tomorrow, against a bear/lion team.

We have to get toDay's vote right.

Edit: X'd with Sally

There's twelve of us, though. 10/12 non-lions, 8/10 innocents; even if everything goes as poorly as possible, we've still got 5/9 innocents toMorrow. So, it's not great, but it's not as dire as that yet.

Rikae

06-30-2014, 07:44 PM

There's twelve of us, though. 10/12 non-lions, 8/10 innocents; even if everything goes as poorly as possible, we've still got 5/9 innocents toMorrow. So, it's not great, but it's not as dire as that yet.

Wait, what? Ok, my brain really is fried.

Inziladun

06-30-2014, 07:46 PM

I feel that raising suspicion on so many people, but also providing counter-points is non-committal and vague (and look pretty wolfish), but as it stands it's getting harder to trust anyone. My votes also may not have looked good. I voted for Kit based on a(n) (innocent) slip, safish votes, and the fact that Mac put her in his trusted list and thought he might be hiding a packmate there, as well as her vote on skip. I definitely feel like I've been pretty successfully manipulated through day 2 and 3. Not sure who is responsible, but the strange feeling that Nog is the most capable, who I've felt good about thus far. Ack.

I don't necessarily disagree with the points you made, but this comes across with a self-conscious air. And how would Nog, or anyone else, manipulate you, unless you allow it?

No consideration that I'm just exceptionally good at reading people's motivations and get a good feeling on whether a person's voting is innocent or not?

You are rather accomplished, not to mention modest. ;)

Of course. If I'm giving a cryptic and creepy vibe then even better, because we all have a character to play and I try my best to play it. I'm actually not being paid to make Greenie's head hurt, but if anyone wants to pay me for that, I won't object.

Oh, it's quite clear you're up to something. I'm not getting the idea it's an evil something, though.

So, who among us are generally suspected, other than Lommy? I would say, Enca or maybe Boro. My guess is that one of those two are our bear and/or maiden - and if I'm remembering the rules right, when we lynch either one, we drop down a Night kill. What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?

Enca is one I've never played with before, which makes it difficult to interpret normal/odd behavior. She voted for Nog Day 1, me Day 2, and Kit yesterDay.
At any rate I think that Bear-hunting is less effective than Lion hunting at this point.

x/d with Sally, Rikae, Lottie, and Rikae again.

Inziladun

06-30-2014, 07:54 PM

Not an exaggeration: If toDay does not end in us lynching someone who voted for Kit yesterDay, I am withdrawing from this game.

Although it's a reasonable assumption that a Kit voter was a Lion, it isn't a certainty.

Speaking of toDay's lynch, I can think of no better place to look than those who for whatever reason (certainly not a sensible one) thought eliminating Kit was a good idea. Let's get started. Who voted Kit and why? No, really, why?

I've already answered that. And how were you so certain she was innocent?

Inziladun

06-30-2014, 07:55 PM

Are we sure there's no Cobbler at this stage? :rolleyes:

WythDryden

06-30-2014, 08:32 PM

Are we sure there's no Cobbler at this stage? :rolleyes:

I am pretty sure that if the maiden were killed, they would not be listed as an ordo at the bottom of the narration post.

Boromir88

06-30-2014, 08:39 PM

Are we sure there's no Cobbler at this stage? :rolleyes:

I do believe sally isn't messing around, she's not one to talk about withdrawing unless she's being honest. It's just really sad to see she's this frustrated she might leave...

I think there are evil paws in the Kit votes last night, but there's got to be a better way than "do it or I'm done"?

satansaloser2005

06-30-2014, 08:52 PM

Green-->Kit
Boro-->Lommy
Gil-->Lommy (2)
Dun-->Kit (2)
Enca-->Kit (3)
Wyth-->Kit (4)
Cop-->Kit (5)
Kit-->Enca
Lottie-->Kit (6)
Lommy-->Kit (7)
Sally-->Lommy (3)
Nog-->Kit (8)
Rikae-->Enca (2)
Eomer-->Boro

We have two wolves and a werebear/maiden combo. While the latter pairing isn't technically evil, they are killing during the Night, so in any case, we have four troublesome folks about.

Of all of the votes yesterDay, only six of them weren't for Kit, and of those six, two are dead, and one is me.

It is mathematically impossible for Kit's lynch to have been purely innocent-driven. Entirely. Mathematically. Impossible.

I'm not saying that all of the people who voted for someone else are innocent, but there is at least one villain among the Kit voters, period.

x'd since Dun

Inziladun

06-30-2014, 09:00 PM

Ok. I wasn't counting the Lovers like you are.

I'd still like to know how you could have been so sure Kit was innocent.

Encaitare

06-30-2014, 09:00 PM

Sally, don't forget that Eonwe did not vote yesterday. This bumps the number of people who were not on the Kitwagon, AND who are still alive, up to five (Eonwe, Boro, Rikae, Eomer, and yourself). So while I don't think it's likely that all four "troublesome folks" didn't vote for Kit, it IS mathematically possible.

satansaloser2005

06-30-2014, 09:08 PM

I'd still like to know how you could have been so sure Kit was innocent.

I was sure Kit was innocent because I was sure Kit was innocent. I had the benefit of not being brainwashed by the wolves for the better part of two Days, so I recognized the bandwagon for what it was: a frame attempt on an innocent.

x'd since Dun again

satansaloser2005

06-30-2014, 09:17 PM

FYI: I need to get some sleep in the semi-immediate future, but I should be able to pop on briefly during breaks and things tomorrow and hopefully can vote sometime in the afternoon.

A Little Green

06-30-2014, 11:09 PM

I should be on my way to the train to work already, but real quick -

Worried about Lommy, not worried about Boro, Sally confuses me but seems likely innocent, and I had a lot of stuff I wanted to comment on but have no time! I'll be back sometime before DL.

Nogrod

07-01-2014, 02:31 AM

The Bear and the Maiden Fair - lovers. Only win if both survive till the end (regardless of whether it's the Lions or the Inn who win the rest of the game). Can communicate at night. The Bear, being a Werebear, kills one person a night as long as the the Maiden is alive. If one dies, the remaining lover then chooses to help the side that did not kill their lover (that is, becomes effectively an ordo if they're night killed, or cobbler if they're lynched).Could our dear moddesses clarify the winning conditions? It seems all players are not interpreting them the same way...

So the lions win now if there are them and two non-lions/innocents/ordos/villagers left? Which of those and with what kind of definition?

What is the Bear and what is the Maiden - and do their status in regards to counting the result change somehow if one of them dies?

The rules say that in case of one going down the remaining lover "effectively becomes" an ordo or a cobbler. Those both are normally counted as "non-lions" and thus someone whose numbers are counted for the village. But what does it mean they "become" it? Isn't the maiden a non-lion already for counting purposes?

To put it plainly. How many normal villagers (ordos and/or gifteds) we need to have to win a) if both the Bear and the maiden are also alive, b) if of the lovers only the maiden is alive, c) if of the lovers only the Bear is alive?

EDIT:
HAHA. Sorry the bad phrasing: the plain question of course is: how many normal villagers will lose the game... Naturally we need to kill all lions to win, but at which numbers we lose (presuming there are two lions alive)?

Aganzir

07-01-2014, 03:12 AM

To put it plainly. How many normal villagers (ordos and/or gifteds) we need to have to win a) if both the Bear and the maiden are also alive, b) if of the lovers only the maiden is alive, c) if of the lovers only the Bear is alive?
Good point, Nog. We hadn't thought of that - in most games with a Bear, the village has had to kill it in order to win, while many Lovers have been a wolf/ordo pair.

Kath is at work (as am I, but I have a neat desk job and don't have to spend all my day yelling at children), so I'll take the liberty to decide.

I would say that as long as they are together, the lovers are on nobody's side and don't count as "normal villagers" in the tally. If there are two lions, you'll need to have two villagers in addition to the lovers.

However, if one of them dies, the other will count as a normal villager. If there are two lions, you'll have to have two villagers, and one of them can be the surviving Maiden or the Bear (acting as an ordo or cobbler depending on the nature of their lover's death).

I feel this is fair because otherwise the Maiden & the Bear would have a hard time winning with the lions, and it also makes sense game-wise - if the bear is actively defending himself against the lions (in a game ending situation), he's too big and strong for them to tackle without suffering losses, so it's in their best interests to let him and his lover go.

Nogrod

07-01-2014, 03:21 AM

Speaking of toDay's lynch, I can think of no better place to look than those who for whatever reason (certainly not a sensible one) thought eliminating Kit was a good idea. Let's get started. Who voted Kit and why? No, really, why?It is certainly sad to hear you're in stress and an unconvenient DL can be annoying. But even an impossible DL shouln't keep you from reading the thread at some other time - and fex. find the reasons I think most of us Kit-voters gave for voting her quite a several times. So let's not start a seventh round of reasons to vote Kit... you go and read them.

What kind of bothers me is your insistence that Kit was somehow self-evidently innocent and your willingness to jump on everyone who thought differently. I mean you do understand that only the lions knew that Kit was not one of them.

We know it now, but that's hindsight. We didn't know it then - and I do still stand behind my vote as having been the reasonable one then. It's not the first or the last time innocent people get it wrong even if they think they have fair points and have reasons to believe so.

That said you're correct in saying the lions could have used the Kit-Wagon to their advantage as it is an easy place to hide when most of the people are of the same mind. Actually I think I already said earlier toDay, that my educated gut-feeling would be that one of the lions voted Kit and the other for someone else.

And anyway, the fact that someone voted Kit doesn't make that person a lion even if it is possible or even probable that at least one of them did so. Seven of the Kit-voters are alive and we only have two lions left, so probably 5 to 6 of the 7 are not lions...

Okay. I'm off for quite some while now but will be back later and willing to go back to the drawingboard and restarting from the only fair source of knowledge aka. Maclion and things around him.

I see Aganzir's rule-confirmation now... and it kind of confirms also my point about the order of importance. With two lions we still face a possibility the lovers might think of going to the dark side but if we get one more lion down... well it's basically really close we win as it makes a lot of sense for the lovers to join us then.

Eönwë

07-01-2014, 03:39 AM

Ok, so RL got in the way of me posting yesterDay, but seriously, what happened? I'm going to reread yesterDay, but that vote seemed to come out of nowhere. I may be slightly overreacting because she was the only person I was almost certain was innocent, but still...

Thinlómien

07-01-2014, 04:35 AM

I want someone, or more than one person, to explain in just a few sentences why Kitanna was suddenly top suspect yesterday. That whole situation was strange to me. I recall someone (was it Nogrod?) claiming that her death would give us answers, or at least better info. I'm not sure why. Sure, Kit always has a slightly sneaky style of play, but what does that matter?Just to quote a few:

Kitanna:
In favour of voting her:
Ah. Her Day #2 Enca vote that could have been an attempt to set up an alternative to a Mac (or Inzil) lynch. If somebody was trying to save him, it was most likely to be her.
Possible "no lions" Lionish slip about G55's posts.
Mixed points: Mac puts her on his Day 1 suspicious list, but says it's flimsy - good cover for her?
He continues to hedge at #131 about her and others.
Kit makes lots of mixed statements about Mac's guilt and non-guilt.
At #179 Mac might be trying to suggest one of Kit, Boro and Rikae was dreamed innocent.
++ Kitanna
In brief: her slip, her emphasis on the lovers, her interactions with Mac, and to some extent her inconsistent voting yesterDay.
Kitanna - my top suspect atm. Consider her slip, her concentrating on the bear and the maiden fair and her interactions with Mac, plus the fact that people (including Mac) have defended her even though there hasn't been that much suspicion against her.
You can't honestly say Kitanna didn't look suspicious yesterDay. If your confusion about the kills and your reaction to it didn't look so innocent, I'd be very inclined to point a finger at you and say "wolf playing the saint since didn't take part in an innocent lynch", but that I guess would be just knee-jerky suspicion. When I've misjudged something, I don't want it rubbed in my face by the likes of you, Eomer. :p

Boro's return makes more sense than his actions yesterDay. I feel better about him already, even though it seems we still disagree.

I state Kit's vote doesn't make sense if she's a lion...and your mind goes to either...

1. We're lovers (false)
2. I'm a lion latching onto someone I know is innocent (false).

No consideration that I'm just exceptionally good at reading people's motivations and get a good feeling on whether a person's voting is innocent or not?It wasn't that you stated that her vote doesn't make sense if she's a lion, it was the dramatic way you pulled a full-blown defense of her quite out of the blue that struck me as weird and not entirely innocent. Yes, as an innocent you can feel pretty confident that another player is innocent too. But my experience from past games tells me that the most flamboyant speeches proclaiming someone's innocence usually come from seers (which you're not) or from wolves overdoing their plan to call someone innocent (because wolves don't have any genuine second-guessing going on).

What do we think about taking a day to go bear hunting?Are you serious?? I don't like the double kills either, but if a village started with as many players as we have now (12) there'd be 3 wolves and we only have 2 to find, so compared to that we're still pretty ok and at least I'm still kind of hoping/assuming the lovers are siding with us because mathematically it makes more sense. Lynching the bear doesn't bring us any closer to victory, but we could theoretically get rid of the wolves toMorrow if we get it right both Days. This suggestion is so fishy that I don't even know what to say. Pretty bold for a wolf, though.

I checked in early, and nothing much had happened. I then went to work on my RL assignment. Checking back later, suddenly Kit was the top suspect. I'm simply asking what happened, because reading back through the thread, the case against her came out of nowhere.So, okay, apparently later Eomer gets down from his high horse. Eomer, the way I see it that a bunch of people (who maybe hadn't posted at all when you went away?) had their own reasons to suspect Kitanna or were convinced by other people's points. Don't forget Greenie analyzed Kitanna's posts, and Copper, Rikae and I analyzed Mac's interactions with people. Unless I misremember, all we who read through Kit and/or Mac's posting found Kitanna at least somewhat suspicious based on that.

I also agree with Eomer that with the Seer gone the Night kills are kind of open to any interprettions because there is no clear agenda anymore. They can kill anyone they wish.

As a general rule I'd presume they'd kill people who would be hard to lynch, but even there I think I have been disproven in this game (fex. killing Volo - whom they'd have quite an easy game to get lynched after his last minute vote).

So fex. killing Cop or Gil could be anyone's doing... they could even throw a dice.

Yes. They might wish to get rid of someone, even if that would be risky if they did that straightforwardly. But on the very same grounds they could bluff and "frame" someone as one the lions felt they had to do away with...Plus they might want to target the ranger (or the bear?) and avoid the hunter. But in general I agree with Nogrod's points up there.

Cop's unusual suspicions make sense as a bear target if Cop was one of the only people the bear could kill, since Cop was one of the only people who didn't suspect them at all. This points to Enca for sure, and maybe also Boro - but Enca is more likely according to this argument.Great, so now my brain is tempted to jump from the assumption "Boro was a wolf who knew Kit was innocent" to "Boro was a bear who knew Kit was innocent". :D That being said, I wonder if the bear and the maiden are laying false trails to other villagers to ensure their lover's survival if they die themselves. Not that we can do much with that piece of speculation (except I can maybe further justify my suspicion of Boro's defense of Kitanna, lol).

The lionkills in turn... well, they make no sense to me. Especially the Volo-kill is just plain odd.Maybe they are just messing with our heads. Or getting gifted vibes from these people? Or bear vibes?

What on earth is going on with Sally. Also, since Eomer has been asking the same questions as you, the reasons why Kitanna was voted yesterDay have been and will be repeated.

It is mathematically impossible for Kit's lynch to have been purely innocent-driven. Entirely. Mathematically. Impossible.False. It is not mathematically impossible although I agree it's very improbable. (Really, what's with all this crappy math in this game?)

What kind of bothers me is your insistence that Kit was somehow self-evidently innocent and your willingness to jump on everyone who thought differently. I mean you do understand that only the lions knew that Kit was not one of them.

We know it now, but that's hindsight. We didn't know it then - and I do still stand behind my vote as having been the reasonable one then. It's not the first or the last time innocent people get it wrong even if they think they have fair points and have reasons to believe so.Amen to that. I am still baffled by this flood of belated Kitanna defense (Kit, if you're reading this, you should feel loved :D) not only from Boro and Sally but now from Eönwë too. With the risk of sounding entirely knee-jerk, I have to say it seems to me it's quite likely one of them is a wolf (or a lover??) taking the act too far. Actually possibly most likely Eönwë, the latecomer to the woe party. (And really, I don't want to diss you guys for being right. You were and are right. Kitanna was innocent - not that anyone's disputing it anymore anyway. But just please don't act like us others are the stupidest ever or totes manipulated by wolves, because that's not true. Kitanna looked very bad yesterDay, and there were four people who were analyzing her or her interactions with Mac and finding something fishy there. There's no way all those four were wolves who had decided to orchestrate a lynch because we only have two wolves left.)

As a side note, toDay seems to be the Day when people start getting emotional and frustrated (yours truly included), so let's just all take a deep breath and calm down. This is supposed to be a fun game. Everybody makes mistakes, everybody gets suspected, and the village doesn't always do what you think is right. Let's not let that ruin any of our fun.

I'm going now, and I will be back later, not sure when and for how much time, but I'll be here.