WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Kath]

You reach the Inn at the Crossroads shortly before nightfall. True to its name, it lies at the crossroads near the ford, between the Kingsroad running north-south, the River Road west and the High Road east. The Inn is three stories tall with turrets and chimneys made of white stone. Its south wing is built upon pilings that rise over a bed of weeds, and on the north side there is a stable with a thatch roof and a bell tower. The building is surrounded by a low wall of broken white stones. Smoke drifts from the chimneys, and raucous voices echo in the gathering darkness.

The evening air is turning cold, so you hurry towards the inn. As you get closer, the smell of cooked meat and ale issues from the open door. Though the voices are loud and drunken, they sound happy, and you feel no fear as you enter. Ahead of you is a wooden bar, behind which stands a thick-set dwarf. The room is filled with people, seemingly from all parts of the realm. Ale and good food have clearly done their work, you can see sigils from many houses - Royce, Tully, Greyjoy, Stark – but not a bared weapon in sight. Reassured, you head to the bar.

“And what can I get for you?” the dwarf asks, wiping a mug with a cloth. She has an accent that you recognise as one from across the Narrow Sea, and what's more, she has a long, beautifully plaited dark beard.

“Freak”, you think to yourself, but can't help noticing that for a dwarf, she is actually quite gorgeous.

“A beer,” you say, “and food. And a bed for the night, if you have one.”

“There is indeed one more bed,” she says. “It seems like half the Seven Kingdoms is on the move tonight.” She pours you a drink and calls to the kitchen: “Agan! Food for the newcomer!”

To your surprise, another dwarf appears in the doorway to the kitchen. This one is fair haired and fair bearded, with similar plaiting to the dwarf behind the bar.

“Another one, Kath? Well it’s coming up but there isn’t much left.”

“We can get new supplies on the morrow.” Kath replies. Agan shrugs and returns to the kitchen.

The dark haired dwarf places the mug in front of you.

“Find a seat.” She says. “The food will be with you shortly.”

Leaning forward to pick up your beer, you are seconds from making a height-related pun, when you see the large axe leaning against the bar by Kath’s feet. Shutting your mouth, you lift the mug and turn to face the crowded room. You can see a table with a spare stool and head towards it.

Heads turn as you walk across the room. Somebody catcalls, and you feel a flush creeping onto your face. When you sit down, a rough-looking woman bears down on you.

“Who do you serve?” she asks bluntly, but is seemingly content with your muttered answer. “That's good,” she says, “we don't want no Lannisters here. They cause naught but trouble.”

“Aye,” says a curly-haired man next to her. “It's good of Aganzir and Kath not to let them in. They want the Iron Throne for themselves even if it means killing everyone else in the process.”

Agan brings you your food. It's a stew with beans and carrots and it's a tad too spicy to your liking, but a fresh loaf of bread helps you gulp it down.

Time passes quickly. Your food is soon gone and your first ale is followed by a second, a third, a fourth. The customers are easy company, though you try to keep out of some of the more political conversations. With so many different houses around it would be easy to get drawn into deeper issues than which of the seven kingdoms has the best ale.

You glance at the bar and see the two dwarves drinking from huge pints, deep in a conversation with a strangely tanned man, half of his body pale and half brown. You wonder if it's pure chance or a strange emblem of the house he serves. Two yellow-haired girls are playing soft music in front of the fireplace, the red light flickering on their instruments. You are starting to feel tired, but your curiosity is piqued when you hear the tanned man call loudly:

“Oy, girls, play us a jig to dance to!”

As the music gets faster, the fair dwarf leads him to the centre of the floor grinning widely, and starts to teach him steps to a dance that looks fairly complicated to you. The audience laughs and cheers them on, but after a while they give up. Agan wipes her brow and looks mischievously at Kath, who is still standing at the bar.

Agan inclines her head towards the middle of the floor. Kath folds her arms and shakes her head firmly. A sly grin creeps onto Agan’s face as she sidles towards the bar. Kath raises her hands to ward Agan off, but the move backfires as the other dwarf grabs both hands and hauls her away from the bar.

“No!” She hisses, dragging her heels and trying to fall back.

“Come on!” Agan wheedles, not loosening her grip.

“Agan, I swear …” The sentence is lost as the musicians strike up again, playing a rousing tune that has many other patrons on their feet, but you can see that Kath is unhappy.

“Agan, let go of me!” Kath hisses, but Agan has a tight hold on Kath's hands, and she has no choice but to dance. Some patrons are watching them with a benign interest. “I am seriously angry with you right now,” you hear Kath say in a low, fast voice, and then she continues, to a lull in the music, “I'm going to rip your beard off! I'm going to rip it off and shove it down your throat!”

Agan doubles over laughing, and Kath stalks back to the bar. Back in the safety of her barrels and mugs, she claps her hands sharply and says with a hint of tension: “Alright everyone! The single rooms are on the second floor, the shared rooms are on the third.”

Little by little, the patrons start drifting towards their beds, you among them.

~ ~ ~

NIGHT 1 BEGINS IN ONE HOUR

WOLVES MAY DISCUSS

BEAR AND MAIDEN MAY SHARE LOVING WHISPERS

SEER MAY DREAM

Admin Thread ~ http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showthread.php?t=18753

[Kath]

The Inn was quiet. Kath was polishing the bar, and Agan sat on a stool counting pennies meticulously.

“Did you see the black cloth sticking out from beneath that one person's cloak?” Agan asked. “Surely a brother of the Night's Watch on the run.”

“Or on an errand to the south,” Kath retorted. “Anyway it's not just the Night's Watch who wear black. I served beer – well, several beers actually – to somebody with amazingly violet eyes. If I didn't know better I could've sworn they were a Targaryen's eyes.”

“You've never seen a Targaryen. And they've died out. Puff. All gone, and a good thing that is. We don't need any more Mad Kings.”

“I’m not sure that a Mad King wouldn’t be better than a Lannister on the throne. I am sure I saw crimson and gold underneath some of those dark cloaks.”

Agan shuddered at the very thought of lions in her bar and peered closely at the money she was counting. She couldn’t see anything gold, but that was no real comfort.

“And better violet eyes than glowing blue.” Kath continued. “I’ve heard tales of those walkers in the North, the Night’s Watch bring strange stories in return for a drink.”

“Never mind mysterious tales from north of the Wall,” Agan interrupted. “I’ve a better story from right here in the Inn!”

Kath’s eyes glinted with interest and she leant forwards on the bar, hand under her chin, ready to listen.

“You saw those two; the big and hairy bloke and the fair-haired girl? They came in separately and sat separately but exchanged lovesick glances all evening.”

“Oh, those two! They both seemed really upset about getting beds in gender-specific dorms!” Kath exclaimed. “I rather think we are seeing a tryst here. Not that it's anything special! I wonder if they'll sneak out.”

“Do lock the door, Kath, and hide the key in its usual place! The times being what they are, we don't want any negligent lovers to leave our door open for sellswords and robbers.”

“Yes yes,” Kath said and dug the large key out of her pocket.

“I'll go bar the kitchen door,” Agan said

Heading off in different directions, the two dwarves had no chance against the evils that were about to befall them. As Agan marched off toward the kitchen, three shadows slid down the stairs and followed her trail. As Kath turned her back on the room to lock the heavy wooden door, a faint whisper, as if of hair moving in a breeze, made her turn back.

“Agan?” She called, uncertain.

There was no reply.

She hid the key and pocketed the coins Agan had left on the table. She flicked crumbs from the table idly and shifted her weight, and wondered what was keeping Agan. Then she followed her. What she saw in the kitchen made her gag. There was Agan, crumpled on the floor and covered in blood. Her throat had been slit neatly, and there were gashes and cuts all over her body. She was still breathing shallowly, but as Kath rushed to embrace her, the tears in her eyes blurring her vision, she sighed once and was still.

“Oh, they will pay for this, they will!” Kath snarled, and made for the axe behind the bar. Her tiny footprints mixed with the traces of huge paws on the bloody floor.

Even through her furious tears, something about those pawprints caught Kath’s attention. The tracks were crossed and muddled, yet there was something different. Kath bent closer to the floor, to one print in particular. Surely those others were the marks of some great cat but this one, this one was … a bear?
As though thinking of the creature conjured it before her, a great paw scythed through the air above Kath’s head. Before she could do much as scream, claws gored into her back, stabbing through her heart. Blood bubbling from her mouth, she too collapsed to the ground and was still.


~ ~ ~


As the patrons woke up gradually, they realised something was wrong. The Inn was chilly, and there was no smell of cooking. When Kitanna got downstairs, Eönwë and Inzil were already there.

“The fire hasn't been lit,” pointed out Eönwë.

“It looks like our hostesses are sleeping late this morning,” said Inzil.

“I'll take the liberty to pour myself a beer then,” Kitanna said.

A short time later, Encai pranced downstairs, followed by wilwa and Boro.

“Where are Agan and Kath?” she asked.

“Let's go look for them,” said Boro, “I want my breakfast.”

“I believe their room is in the second floor,” said wilwa.

On the stairs Boro and wilwa ran into Lottie and Nerwen, and together they proceeded to Agan and Kath's door. Lottie knocked but there was no reply, and Nerwen pushed the door open. The room was empty, the bed unslept-in.

“Something must be wrong,” Lottie said.

“They wouldn't just have left,” Nerwen agreed. Suddenly there came a cry from downstairs. G55 was standing at the kitchen floor, looking pale.

“I think... I think I've found them,” she whispered.

Greenie and WythDryden came through the doorway, having been alerted by G55’s scream.

“By all the gods,” Greenie whispered, “who could have done this?”

“Not who,” WythDryden replied, “but what.”

“He’s right!” Eomer’s voice called from the main room. As the others made their way back to him, they saw that he was pointing down at the ground, where bloodied prints were still clearly marked.

“Are those … lion prints?” Rikae asked.

“And bear prints.” Mac added after a closer inspection.

Cop, face peering through the mounds of shawls that surrounded her, nodded with a sad sigh.

“To think, two peaceful creatures murdered as we slept. It’s despicable.”

“How did they get in though – or out?” asked Nogrod. “The front door is locked, and so is the back door. I can't find the key. And the windows are too small!”

“Maybe they didn't get out. Maybe they're still here with us,” said Volo ominously to the quiet room.

“Oi! Is this a torn Lannister cloak I see?” Gil cried suddenly from a corner in his Braavosi accent, holding up a piece of crimson fabric with a lion clearly stitched on it in golden thread. “Do we have traitors in our midst?”

“I am afraid all the signs point to what Gil just said being true. There are murderers here,” sally concluded.

“And we cannot get out,” said skip, hitting the door. The lock rattled but the door didn't budge. The patrons fell silent, the realisation of their bleak situation dawning upon them. The silence was only broken by a voice from the middle of the stairs:

“What's this commotion?” asked Lommy, sleepy-eyed and smiling, “and what's for breakfast?”

~ ~ ~

DAY 1 HAS BEGUN
VILLAGERS – DISCUSS YOUR WOES!

Dead:
Agan
Kath

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Kitanna - illiterate peasant
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
wilwarin538 - house Mormont
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
Nerwen - house Martell
Galadriel55 - wildling
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Macalaure - house Connington
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit
Nogrod - house Swann
Colin "Volo" Mute - house (Euron) Greyjoy
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos
satansaloser2005 - random peasant
skip spence - ex-Lannister Imp

[Kitanna]

There's three peasants, three lions. So obviously Sally, Enca, and me...oh wait. Well, that simply isn't correct...

[wilwarin538]

Would like to start by saying that the fact that House Mormont is from Bear Island and our blazon is a black bear is purely coincidental and has nothing to do with a certain role. And here I was prepared to make stupid bear puns for most of the game and they went and added that role and ruined my fun :p

Can't believe I'm playing WW, been like 3 years, this is so exciting :D

[Rikae]

Would like to start by saying that the fact that House Mormont is from Bear Island and our blazon is a black bear is purely coincidental and has nothing to do with a certain role. And here I was prepared to make stupid bear puns for most of the game and they went and added that role and ruined my fun :p

Can't believe I'm playing WW, been like 3 years, this is so exciting :D

And I was about to post "glares suspiciously at Wilwa Mormont" when I saw that you'd already mentioned it... :p

[Galadriel55]

÷÷Zil
÷÷Kit
÷÷Lommy
÷÷Boro
÷÷Lottie
÷÷Nerwen
÷÷Nog
÷÷Sally
÷÷Greenie
÷÷Cop

Because I've never played with you, ever.

÷÷Steve
÷÷Eomer
÷÷Wilwa
÷÷Rikae

Because I've just played with you a week ago.

÷÷Enca
÷÷Mac
÷÷Volo
÷÷Gil
÷÷skip

Because I've played with you every single game I played.

÷÷Wyth

Because you're such an old-timer, I'm bored of you.

;););) I love all of you. AND I'M PLAYING WEREWOLF AGAIN!!!

[Rikae]

A week ago? You must have me mixed up with someone else.

Edit: Ah, never mind, none of that makes sense.

[Coppermirror]

I thought I'd sleep under a proper roof for once, but look, look at those prints on the floor! If I'd slept in the woods and saved my coin, at least I wouldn't be stuck in here with murdering animals. T'isn't right. T'isn't right! At least in the wilds, the beasties don't use lies and treachery to eat their fill. They don't kill peaceful folks as give them a warm place to sleep an' a meal. The beasts in here with us are wrong 'uns, going against nature. I bet they weren't even hungry when they killed those two peaceful critters who welcomed us all here.

Out where I live an' sometimes wander, I don't hear many rumours. But those I do hear, ah, the tallest tales come from those who wander too. I've seen many a thing that folks like you wouldn't believe. A hill that walks! A stag with ten sets of antlers! A boiling stream in the dead of winter! You think I'm lying, you do, but those are all the truth. An' I've heard tales from others. Some of those who travel far into the North tell tales of bear creatures that shift their form...maybe like the cruel beat who in all seeming is here locked in with us all.

What I'd like to know is, can those who are said to be blessed with powers of perception beyond the ken of normal folk see such things as hairy bears and any who might cavort with 'em? I'm going to ask! I'm going to ask THIS MUG OF ALE, THIS MUG OF ALE RIGHT HERE. MUG OF ALE, WHAT SAY YOU?

[wilwarin538]

A week ago? You must have me mixed up with someone else.

Edit: Ah, never mind, none of that makes sense.

My guess is she's making some sort of GoT reference based on our chosen houses in relation to her as a wilding and I just don't get it...

....or she's lost her mind.

x'ed with Coppermirror

[Galadriel55]

A week ago? You must have me mixed up with someone else.

No, the first list is people who I've played with (relatively) recently, the second - a long time ago, and the last ones - never. Or at least I don't remember ever playing with them.

My guess is she's making some sort of GoT reference based on our chosen houses in relation to her as a wilding and I just don't get it...

....or she's lost her mind.

Well, you know, one does not necessarily contradict the other. I lost my mind a long long time ago, when I got into a quarrel with a couple Thenns. Couldn't find it ever since. I think one o' them stole it.


:p

[Coppermirror]

What I'd like to know is, can those who are said to be blessed with powers of perception beyond the ken of normal folk see such things as hairy bears and any who might cavort with 'em? I'm going to ask! I'm going to ask THIS MUG OF ALE, THIS MUG OF ALE RIGHT HERE. MUG OF ALE, WHAT SAY YOU?

Not so much as a slosh...Then, I'll ask this fine axe, that's leaning against the wall here. I can read, you know, an' I can see "MODDESS" engraved on its handle. That's a good omen. AXE, WHAT SAY YOU? Are there those who can tell such things? A sharp axe like you, you'd know much better than anything here, I reckon.

[Inziladun]

So, our hosts were killed by a lion and a bear? Now all we need are tigers.

[Thinlómien]

Team Stannis got added into my name? Yesss. There is only one true King in Westeros and it's Stannis Baratheon! Death to the Lannister usurpers!

So without further ado, let me scrutinize you -

Eönwë - house Royce - obviously our ranger and will be the first one to die.
Inziladun - house Tully - since we're in the Riverlands, shouldn't he have been there to protect his subjects? Apparently the Tullys don't care too much about the smallfolk, but I admit they're not big fans of the Lannisters.
Kitanna - illiterate peasant - might be Davos Seaworth in disguise so I'm naturally inclined to trust her.
Encaitare - random peasant - in the world of George R.R. Martin, nothing is random so she's probably a Lannister or Targaryen bastard and bears watching.
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon - Stannis not Robert, Stannis not Robert, STANNIS NOT ROBERT, I'm not a Lannister ok???
wilwarin538 - house Mormont - don't the Mormonts breed with bears? Obviously a lover.
Boromir88 - house Bolton - House Bolton? They stab their friends in the back and skin their enemies. Neither is a good option so we should probably lynch him asap.
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin - everybody knows the Tyrells are in cahoots with the Lannisters so we should get rid of her.
Nerwen - house Martell - known for having a grudge with the Lannisters. That looks god in my books.
Galadriel55 - wildling - shouldn't that filth stay beyond the wall?
A Little Green - house Reed - don't have much to say except those frog people seem to know more about everything than us others. Not too happy about that.
WythDryden - house Martell - see what I said about Nerwen.
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark - despite the fact that this game has werelions I'm naturally suspicious of someone who carries a wolf in their banner. Enough said.
Rikae - house Tarth - ah but is she the bear or the maiden fair? Better still not to lynch her yet because a gallant knight might dream of her and want to rescue her and get the bear killed in process.
Macalaure - house Connington - what is House Connington famous for? Being Targaryen loyalists and getting bitch slapped by Lannisters. Maybe we should keep him for amusement value.
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit - crazy Northern hermit? So our see... oops, I didn't say anything. Probably no one special.
Nogrod - house Swann - a house famously torn in loyalties. Should be watched.
Colin "Volo" Mute - house (Euron) Greyjoy - Euron Crow's Eye? No relation to the three-eyed crow? Are you serious?
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos - my King kind of owns the Braavosi so I should probably shut up.
satansaloser2005 - random peasant - see what I said about Encai.
skip spence - ex-Lannister Imp - how can you be an ex-Lannister as all they care about is legacy? Surely you are a Lannister or are not. Extra minus for pouring wildfire on my King's head.


Ergo:

Wolves - Skip, Eomer and Sally or Encai, or possibly Nogrod, Lottie or me

Lovers - Wilwa and Rikae

Seer - Coppermirror (or possibly Volo)

Ranger - Eönwë

Hunter - the one of Encai and Sally that isn't a wolf, or possibly Mac


See, I solved the game purely based on ic stuff. Can I have cake now? :p

Going to bed now, I'm too tired to think about dynamics with a changed hunter and a werebear and their lover. You guys be good and figure it out while I sleep. :Merisu: I'll be back around the European noon and make more sense then.

[Boromir88]

Posting to subscribe...will return after I perform a routine leeching

[wilwarin538]

I'm too tired to think about dynamics with a changed hunter and a werebear and their lover. You guys be good and figure it out while I sleep.

I can do that!

So with the bear and the maiden basically what we want is for the bear to lose his killing power, and there's a few ways for that to happen; either he is killed or his maiden dies. So really either of them dying would be good and would get rid of the double night kill. But, the interesting thing is that we don't want to be the ones to kill one of them first, cause that would create a cobbler. So we basically have to hope that the wolves kill one of them so that the other will just be an ord. Kind of interesting that we want to avoid lynching the bear, very weird!

With the changed hunter one of the interesting things is they can't reveal or they lose their power. I love this rule, because I don't think the hunter should ever reveal, it makes their ability kinda useless.

Now with the coin toss the better result depends on where we are in the game. If it tosses that they survive an extra day that could be very useful closer to the end of the game when we need as many goodies as possible, where them dying and possibly taking down another innocent could be very detrimental,so it's better to just have them around (and I would assume we would know their role and be told it's their last day alive? so we'd also have a known innocent if that's the case). However, earlier in the game we would want them to get to use their power and hopefully take down a baddie, and if they accidentally take down an innocent we are still early enough in the game where our numbers are big enough to be able to not feel it as much as we would later.

Does that all make sense? Hopefully I've interpreted the roles correctly. Basically, we want the wolves to kill one of the lovers before we do, and the coin toss could be beneficial in different ways depending on how early it happens.

[Boromir88]

.
Boromir88 - house Bolton - House Bolton? They stab their friends in the back and skin their enemies. Neither is a good option so we should lynch him asap.

Taking the high road is most gracious, but the high road is difficult to follow against Lannisters. And no one kills Lannisters half as well as House Bolton.

[wilwarin538]

Well, bedtime for me. I'll hop on in about 9 hours for a bit before work, will hopefully have lots to read. The deadline is a bit before the end of my work day but thankfully I have a desk job and can pretty easily post from there, assuming I don't get pulled away from my desk unexpectedly I should be able to vote fairly close to the DL. So yeah, hopefully I can still contribute quite a bit (yay for having a reason to slack off :p )

[Inziladun]

So with the bear and the maiden basically what we want is for the bear to lose his killing power, and there's a few ways for that to happen; either he is killed or his maiden dies. So really either of them dying would be good and would get rid of the double night kill. But, the interesting thing is that we don't want to be the ones to kill one of them first, cause that would create a cobbler. So we basically have to hope that the wolves kill one of them so that the other will just be an ord. Kind of interesting that we want to avoid lynching the bear, very weird!

And both of them want to stay alive, naturally. What's always difficult about a Lover pair is that they can choose which side they want to support, and could change their minds in an instant depending on circumstance. However, the death of one takes away that choice from the survivor. Very interesting indeed.

Now with the coin toss the better result depends on where we are in the game. If it tosses that they survive an extra day that could be very useful closer to the end of the game when we need as many goodies as possible, where them dying and possibly taking down another innocent could be very detrimental,so it's better to just have them around (and I would assume we would know their role and be told it's their last day alive? so we'd also have a known innocent if that's the case). However, earlier in the game we would want them to get to use their power and hopefully take down a baddie, and if they accidentally take down an innocent we are still early enough in the game where our numbers are big enough to be able to not feel it as much as we would later.

I agree with the scenario analysis, but the random element makes it a crapshoot. If they do get to kill someone, we have to hope too that they make a helpful choice, as usual.

[Encaitare]

Encaitare - random peasant - in the world of George R.R. Martin, nothing is random so she's probably a Lannister or Targaryen bastard and bears watching.

I bear watching, eh? Just what are you implying, madam? And suggesting I am a bastard? My parents are married, and both are very much human.

(Let me remind everyone that I have neither read the books nor watched the show, so any in-world references mean very little to me. Therefore I may be very random indeed!)

And both of them want to stay alive, naturally. What's always difficult about a Lover pair is that they can choose which side they want to support, and could change their minds in an instant depending on circumstance. However, the death of one takes away that choice from the survivor. Very interesting indeed.

I've never played a game with Lovers before, so you bring up a good point. I had not thought that they might choose to support the lions. *clutches head* So basically there are four baddies we need to take out -- three lions and a bear -- plus the remaining lover who will be working against us if we lynch the other one. (Someone please correct me if I've got that wrong!)

[WythDryden]

WythDryden - house Martell - see what I said about Nerwen.

You are wise to trust me. Nothing will give me greater pleasure than putting to death these bear-lion-maggots. I found these dwarf-women intensely curious, and as I hail from the land of Dorne, I love indiscriminately. Having them taken from us, and cut short the fun we may have had, calls for a vengeance that I can't wait to assume with my spear.

Those illustrious and lustrous beards shall be avenged.

[Loslote]

Okay, guys, I've figured it out! I know who it was! It was...

(pause for effect)

Kath!

...wait, that's not right...

*ahem*

Well! The next step is figure out how those prints got there! They are animal prints, but I don't see animals in our company - therefore the animals must have turned into people. And we all know who turns into people - witches! And what do we do with witches? We burn them! And what else burns? Wood! And since woods floats, and ducks also float, the killers must weigh the same as a duck! Do we happen to have a set of scales in the inn? This could blow the whole mystery out of the water!

(DL is right towards the end of my work shift this game. I'll maybe be able to check in occasionally, but I probably won't be posting much in the second half of the Day.)

[Galadriel55]

Encaitare - random peasant - in the world of George R.R. Martin, nothing is random so she's probably a Lannister or Targaryen bastard and bears watching.

A Lannister, or a Targaryen, and also possibly bears watching? ;)

So with the bear and the maiden basically what we want is for the bear to lose his killing power, and there's a few ways for that to happen; either he is killed or his maiden dies. So really either of them dying would be good and would get rid of the double night kill. But, the interesting thing is that we don't want to be the ones to kill one of them first, cause that would create a cobbler. So we basically have to hope that the wolves kill one of them so that the other will just be an ord. Kind of interesting that we want to avoid lynching the bear, very weird!

That's true. However, if push comes to shove, I'd trade the extra kill for a cobbler.

With the changed hunter one of the interesting things is they can't reveal or they lose their power. I love this rule, because I don't think the hunter should ever reveal, it makes their ability kinda useless.

They become a known innocent. Well, as known as a revealed gifted with no proof can get. Could be helpful under the right circumstances, could be not. At any rate, I think it's for the hunter to decide if revealing at any given moment will pay off rather than keep their ability.

Now with the coin toss the better result depends on where we are in the game. If it tosses that they survive an extra day that could be very useful closer to the end of the game when we need as many goodies as possible, where them dying and possibly taking down another innocent could be very detrimental,so it's better to just have them around (and I would assume we would know their role and be told it's their last day alive? so we'd also have a known innocent if that's the case). However, earlier in the game we would want them to get to use their power and hopefully take down a baddie, and if they accidentally take down an innocent we are still early enough in the game where our numbers are big enough to be able to not feel it as much as we would later.

The survival ability also gives us the known innocent for an extra day without having a reveal. This is always useful, but especially so towards the end of the game. A live and known innocent! And we would know more from the wolves (bears?) motives without actually having that person killed. Like a Ranger save, except that the Ranger does not have to reveal. I must say, I rather like this option. The other side of the coin is your regular illogical hunter, as I understand.

QUESTION FOR THE MODS: Do both sides of the coin still work if the Targaryen is lynched? Is he still alive the next Day?

EDIT: xed with Lottie

[satansaloser2005]

There's three peasants, three lions. So obviously Sally, Enca, and me...oh wait. Well, that simply isn't correct...

Now, now, Kit, darling, you know very well that's now how numbers work, and you know even better that Enca isn't one of us- um, useful, useful people in the game, since she only joined to help her lad.

*clears throat*

You'll have to forgive dear Kit. She learned to count by cutting into her fingers one at a time, and she accidentally removed a few during the process, so math is a bit difficult for her.

[Galadriel55]

Brief addition about the Lover speculation: I somehow automatically assumed that whatever the Lovers choose to do will not be in our favour, but then who knows. Best case scenario is the Bear killing a wolf/lion (or two or three). And then all remaining living people are happy, including the Lovers (assuming they don't get lynched).

Just some food for thought. It's best served with potatoes, and some carrots, if you have. Good vegetables are hard to come by beyond the Wall, especially in the winter.

EDIT: xed with sally

[satansaloser2005]

I found out that we will have a Very Important Visitor at work tomorrow, so I will be unable to access the Downs except during my lunch. If I wake up early enough in the morning, I'll vote before I head to work, but otherwise I'll have to pop in quickly during lunch and catch up as best I can before shooting off a quick vote. Obviously the latter is my preference, but I'll have to see how tomorrow unfolds.

I'm going to try to catch up on the thread before bed, but there doesn't seem to have been much of substance said so far, so I may put it off until morning.

[Gil-Galad]

Ah the first day, or as I like to call it "shot in the dark" day. I will be patient and do my dough-dancing for the guests.

(Just a heads up, I do have a final exam this saturday so ideally my focus will lay in studying for that. If a voting deadline is coming up and I am absent, one or all of the fabulous downers that have me on fb can feel free to msg me to remind me.)

"There is only one god, yeast, and when it refuses to rise we say 'not today'."

[Macalaure]

Mac Connington has been sitting in a corner of the inn, quietly. He was friendless here: all kinds of houses of Westeros were present, yet, the Martells aside, all of them loyal subjects of the Usurper. It made him sick. He wished he could feel different about the peasants, but he knew they cared little, as long as they were left alone and had the copper to buy an ale at the inn.

Yet now this inn didn't sell ale anymore, being violently parted from its owners. Maybe this was just the kind of stir needed to bring fat lords and witless smallfolk to a nobler cause. (Comment about incognito Targaryens withheld due to spoilers.)

Mac took off his glove, slowly and deliberately, and inspected his hand. The black nail on his index finger once again brought a frown to his face. He pulled his knife and carefully pricked the fingertip. He felt nothing, and his expression turned bitter. He put away the knife and swiftly slipped the glove back on, and then rose.

"I believe the matter at hand is clear enough. Were-Lannisters have killed our innkeeps, and there is little reason to believe they won't strike again the coming night. Since obviously we can't just leave this cursed place, we need to find who in our midst is secretly the worst among the Usurper's ilk." He looked around the common room in mistrust, then glanced again at his gloved hand. "And we don't have much time to do so! This place is suspiciously quiet and void of a sense of urgency!"

He collected himself, to voice his thoughts.

what is House Connington famous for? Being Targaryen loyalists and getting bitch slapped by Lannisters.
Lommy of House Baratheon, I name you liar! House Connington is also famous for losing crucial and extremely winnable battles.
Also, I'll say it again, I will have nothing to do with that Usurper's lickspittle Ronnel!

And no one kills FOR Lannisters half as well as House Bolton.
I took the freedom to mend your quote for you, Boro of House Bolton. :p

Wilwa of House Mormont gives good advice concerning lovers and hunter. I agree. Galadriel the wildling adds some sense, too, but Inzil of House Tully's comments on Wilwa's points seem more looking-to-be-helpful rather than actually helpful to me. Then again, Encai finds him helpful, so maybe I'm too eager to find something suspicious in what little has been posted so far.

[Nerwen]

"I believe the matter at hand is clear enough. Were-Lannisters have killed our innkeeps, and there is little reason to believe they won't strike again the coming night. Since obviously we can't just leave this cursed place, we need to find who in our midst is secretly the worst among the Usurper's ilk." He looked around the common room in mistrust, then glanced again at his gloved hand. "And we don't have much time to do so! This place is suspiciously quiet and void of a sense of urgency!"
Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?

[Thinlómien]

Okay, let me get this straight.

Good sides to having a bear
- it makes more sense for the bear and his lover to side with us (that would make the odds 18 against 3 and with a double ability to try to take out a wolf).
- even if the bear and his lover don't choose sides yet, they have a reasonable chance of killing a wolf even at random.

Bad sides to having a bear
- two kills per Night. Apparently I'm the only one freaked out by this atm. It's in the bear's interests as well as the wolves' to get rid of the gifted so this does not bode well.
- also, consequently, my maths say that if the bear and his lover choose to side with the wolves, then the worst case scenario is that we can have a total out in the open vote conspiracy that can make the village lose as early as Day4.

Also, I don't personally like the idea of a duo of people who can choose their allegiance having this much power, that's too much of a source of chaos. Otherwise, the ratio 16 innocents against 3 wolves sounds like we shouldn't be too worried, but we should not let it fool us. Let's win rather sooner than later, alright? I'm still annoyed by the wolf victory in the last game!!

In conclusion, we should focus on finding the wolves, but personally I'm not too saddened if the bear and/or his lover become casualties in our wolf hunt. No offense, but I will feel safer without a bear roaming in the Night, even if the bear is trying to kill wolves, because I don't trust anybody's judgement more than the collective judgement of the village. (And honestly I don't see the cobbler as a big problem.)

Now let's just cross our fingers and hope that the bear and the wolves kill each others for us. We can deal with the bear later if they start to become problematic.


edi: xed with Nerwen

[Thinlómien]

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?What? Are you joking? This is such a classic wolf post I'm almost willing to give you the benefit of doubt, but not really.

Jumping on someone else's point to create suspicion against a group of people? Check. Throwing around vague suspicion that can't bear close inspection? Check.

Of course people are talking about the bear and the modified hunter this early on. It's always the exceptional rules that start the discussion on Day1 (it was the same last game, for example).

But ironically, your post has started the actual wolf suspicions (both by you suspecting the earlier posters and by me now suspecting you) so maybe I shouldn't complain. :D

[Thinlómien]

Oh, and, why on earth does everybody assume the hunter will be a known innocent if s/he lives an extra Day when the rules make it clear s/he can't reveal?

Can we get modly clarification about whether we will get to know who was attacked at Night if it was the hunter and s/he lives?

[Nerwen]

Oh, come on, wolves love bear-hunting, Lommy.. Even more than cobbler-hunting.

Oh, and, why on earth does everybody assume the hunter will be a known innocent if s/he lives an extra Day when the rules make it clear s/he can't reveal?
No, the hunter can reveal, but becomes an ordo on doing so.

When killed, the mods will toss a coin to see if the Targaryen survives another day before quietly passing away or goes mad and takes a person of their choice to the grave with them. However, the mood in the Seven Kingdoms has been so anti-Targaryen lately that if they reveal, they will be bound in a chair to ensure they don't go mad (that is, they lose all their special power).

[skip spence]

Also, I don't personally like the idea of a duo of people who can choose their allegiance having this much power, that's too much of a source of chaos. Otherwise, the ratio 16 innocents against 3 wolves sounds like we shouldn't be too worried, but we should not let it fool us. Let's win rather sooner than later, alright? I'm still annoyed by the wolf victory in the last game!!

In conclusion, we should focus on finding the wolves, but personally I'm not too saddened if the bear and/or his lover become casualties in our wolf hunt. No offense, but I will feel safer without a bear roaming in the Night, even if the bear is trying to kill wolves, because I don't trust anybody's judgement more than the collective judgement of the village. (And honestly I don't see the cobbler as a big problem.)

Now let's just cross our fingers and hope that the bear and the wolves kill each others for us. We can deal with the bear later if they start to become problematic.

Hi there! :)

Never played with a bear (and a loving Maiden fair: how beastly!) before. Like you say, they really are an added source of chaos, as if ww wasn't chaotic enough as it is. This may change of course but at present the pair will have no reason to take sides. The bear can of course try to kill a Lion at some point but if it misses the mark it will surely not hesitate to switch sides again and then again if it seems beneficiary, making them as dangerous to the Lions as to the innocents. So we'd better focus on trying to reveal the Lions rather than the Lovers, since they are clear enemies. That's the way I see things at least.

[skip spence]

No, the hunter can reveal, but becomes an ordo on doing so.
Right. But shouldn't the hunter do so then, right now? Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?

[Thinlómien]

Thanks for the clarification, Nerwen! But if the hunter reveals and thus becomes an ordo at the point when s/he wouldn't be live if s/he was an ordo, it doesn't make much sense to me.

Right. But shouldn't the hunter do so then, right now? Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?That's up to the hunter, I guess. I wouldn't be surprised if s/he preferred to take a shot at killing a wolf rather than become a known innocent though.

[Volo]

Mild spoiler. (http://i.imgur.com/4ZT7pjV.jpg)

I have a cunning plan! How about we all reveal as a Targaryen!
Or on the other hand, maybe not. :rolleyes: (oh, how I've missed this smiley) The Targaryen has no sympathies with the usurpers dogs, Lannisters, lions, wolves, whatever they are. No spoiler. (http://fc03.deviantart.net/fs70/f/2012/124/5/c/lion__wolf_hybrid_by_vampire_lion-d4yhy96.png) So let's leave sleeping dragons sleep.

Lommy's math is ominous. I would rest easier if someone proved her wrong.

[Nerwen]

Thanks for the clarification, Nerwen! But if the hunter reveals and thus becomes an ordo at the point when s/he wouldn't be live if s/he was an ordo, it doesn't make much sense to me.
But at that point (surviving the Night-kill) the hunter would have no power to lose, so no reason *not* to reveal; at least that's how I read it.

EDit:x'd with Volo.

[Macalaure]

Regarding our noble and rightful rulers, the Targaryens, there are three things that could happen:

1. He gets lynched - He will either take somebody down with him, or survive the lynching and live another day. What if wolves/bear target him during the Night, though?
2. He gets killed at Night - Again, the hunter will either take someone down as well, or there is no kill that Night (or one kill less) and he gets to survive through the coming day. In the latter case, will the village be told his identity?
3. He chooses to reveal - I highly doubt the mods will step in and confirm the reveal. Takes away the fun of fake reveals. Demonstration?

I'm the Targaryen!

He looks around the inn, twenty irritated faces staring back at him.

See, nothing is happening. We're south of the Wall, the dwarves aren't going to walk among us coldly again for no good reason. (Clarification on points 1 and 2 would be useful, though. :) )

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take care of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.


Aside from this, while I do agree that Nerwen's post was a bit suspicious, Lommy seemed a bit over-eager to jump on it. So.. hmmmm...


(Saw Volo's post as I previewed.)

[Aganzir]

QUESTION FOR THE MODS: Do both sides of the coin still work if the Targaryen is lynched? Is he still alive the next Day?
Yes, both sides are still there - irrespective of the cause of death, the Targaryen either survives an extra day or takes someone to the grave.

Oh, and, why on earth does everybody assume the hunter will be a known innocent if s/he lives an extra Day when the rules make it clear s/he can't reveal?

Can we get modly clarification about whether we will get to know who was attacked at Night if it was the hunter and s/he lives?
A lightning won't strike the Targaryen dead if they reveal during their extra day. Nerwen is quite correct that at that point, they have no special powers left to lose.
The narration will let you know if there's a ranger save or, indeed, if someone refuses to die.

[Macalaure]

Mac slaps his thigh at Volo's intro joke.

Now, obviously I don't think we should all reveal as hunters. One fake reveal might stir the pot a little, but many will eventually start to benefit the wolves.


I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?).

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.

Agree with Mac here.

It's been a while since I played, but are we still doing the "Day One is useless at the time!" "No it's not!" debate that used to define the beginning of games? :p

Or are the usual tricks to avoid it so clichéd that they become suspicious, twice over?

Like Lommy's (of course) and Boro's decidely leonine behaviour thus far? Hmmm?

String them up!

[Volo]

We could use this time to forge an alliance with the Lovers.
Early in the game it makes sense not to pressure the Lovers.
It also makes sense for the Lovers to try and hunt down Lannisters,
since Lannisters are the greatest danger to the Lovers at this moment.
If the advantage shifts to the Lannisters in a couple of Days,
we might want to reconsider (meaning making personal notes on Lover suspicion).
I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with.

[Volo]

Mac, thank you for your very educational demonstration. Great minds...

Well, I'll go see if this inn has more paper hidden somewhere. Unless one of you would like to interpret my sign language.

[skip spence]

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

Sure, the Hunter may become useful later in the game, but (s)he might just as well become harmful taking down another innocent at death which may come at any time (in true Got style).

WW is a game of numbers and the way I see things, the numbers favour a quick reveal.

I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?). Agan said that the narration will reveal that.

[wilwarin538]

I agree with the scenario analysis, but the random element makes it a crapshoot. If they do get to kill someone, we have to hope too that they make a helpful choice, as usual.

Of course, it's all completely random and we can't predict what will happen, but it's good for us to get discussion going by considering the possible outcomes.


Well! The next step is figure out how those prints got there! They are animal prints, but I don't see animals in our company - therefore the animals must have turned into people. And we all know who turns into people - witches! And what do we do with witches? We burn them! And what else burns? Wood! And since woods floats, and ducks also float, the killers must weigh the same as a duck! Do we happen to have a set of scales in the inn? This could blow the whole mystery out of the water!


Wow, I've missed this place so much :D


- also, consequently, my maths say that if the bear and his lover choose to side with the wolves, then the worst case scenario is that we can have a total out in the open vote conspiracy that can make the village lose as early as Day4.

......

In conclusion, we should focus on finding the wolves, but personally I'm not too saddened if the bear and/or his lover become casualties in our wolf hunt. No offense, but I will feel safer without a bear roaming in the Night, even if the bear is trying to kill wolves, because I don't trust anybody's judgement more than the collective judgement of the village. (And honestly I don't see the cobbler as a big problem.)


For the first part: if the bear and the maiden decide to side with the wolves it isn't like they can start communicating with each other or anything, so I don't know why you think they'll be able to plot together so easily, they don't know who each other are anymore than we know who they are, so it's difficult for the bear and maiden to really help them out. I guess you mean if the numbers are right the bear/maiden could just reveal themselves and make sure they vote the way the wolves want? Yeah, I suppose that is possible, but that's always possible with lovers.

The Lovers won't be making any specific allegiances until later in the game when it's clear which side is doing better. If we manage to get a wolf early on then they'll probably side more with us, but if we go days without being successful they probably won't. If we want them on our side we have to do well, basically.

For your second part: interesting that you said you were panicked about the double night kills but you want to focus on the wolves. I think killing one of either the bear or maiden is a better goal cause that's killing one person to decrease the night kills, rather than killing 3. Though, I don't know exactly how we could go about targeting the bear/maiden specifically, my hope is one gets taken out at night so we don't get a cobbler, but even if we lynch one getting a cobbler isn't the end of the world. Plus, once one of them is dead it could be easy to figure out who their lover was based on their posts (if we do get a cobbler).

So I'm off to work. Depending on how busy I am today I should be able to pop on a few times.

edt: ah, page 2! x'ed since Agan

[WythDryden]

So we'd better focus on trying to reveal the Lions rather than the Lovers, since they are clear enemies. That's the way I see things at least.

*Puts his suspicious eyes on* Getting nervous eh?

Edit: Well since reading page 2 and the posts agreeing with the strategy, maybe you are innocent after all. I'll still be keeping my eye out though. I have yet to fully trust any of you. Wilwarin's posts almost seem too helpful to be genuine after all.

[Kitanna]

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.
The bear still gets a kill (though one kill a night is obviously better than two) and the Targaryan doesn't have any knowledge to impart to us. She/he is just a known innocent to bolster the village numbers. Which isn't bad, but at this point a reveal isn't the best idea.

I've never played a game with Lovers before, so you bring up a good point. I had not thought that they might choose to support the lions. *clutches head* So basically there are four baddies we need to take out -- three lions and a bear -- plus the remaining lover who will be working against us if we lynch the other one. (Someone please correct me if I've got that wrong!)
It hadn't occurred to me either. Since they both have to make it to end game I assumed they'd just change alliances from day to day as the need demanded. Or be submarinish to avoid detection.

You'll have to forgive dear Kit. She learned to count by cutting into her fingers one at a time, and she accidentally removed a few during the process, so math is a bit difficult for her.
No one understands my illiterate status better than you, my dear.

For the first part: if the bear and the maiden decide to side with the wolves it isn't like they can start communicating with each other or anything, so I don't know why you think they'll be able to plot together so easily, they don't know who each other are anymore than we know who they are, so it's difficult for the bear and maiden to really help them out. I guess you mean if the numbers are right the bear/maiden could just reveal themselves and make sure they vote the way the wolves want? Yeah, I suppose that is possible, but that's always possible with lovers.
Agreed.

My biggest fear with the lovers is the extra kill at night. Though, they could take down a lion with this kill, which would be wonderful. And while a cobbler can be dangerous later in the game I'm not overly concerned if we lynch a lover and get one. Ideally the lions will target one and the remaining lover will be on the village's side. I'd really like to be rid of a second kill at night, but I'm not about to actively hunt the lovers. But I'm also not going to sweat it too much if we lynch one instead of a lion.

[Thinlómien]

Like Lommy's (of course) and Boro's decidely leonine behaviour thus far? Hmmm?Come on, when don't you suspect me on Day1? :p

And as reply to Volo and Wilwa:

Let's assume a worst case scenario. That is we lynch only innocents, the wolves and the bear kill only innocents, the seer doesn't dream of wolves, the ranger doesn't make saves and the hunter doesn't kill a wolf.

We are now 16 innocents (ordos + gifteds), 2 lovers and 3 wolves. Assuming what I said above, there will be 13 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day2, 10 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day3, 7 + 2 + 3 on Day4 and 4 + 2 + 3 on Day5.

Okay, I screwed up my maths a bit earlier because I somehow counted that we would be 5 + 2 +3 on Day4. In that case, the wolves and the lovers might just all have revealed and teamed up after one innocent has voted. (Given that both teams would have reason to assume the innocent is innocent.) Now I see we're only screwed on Day5 if everything goes wrong.

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

I guess my inner pessimist just keeps thinking this game can't be as easy as it looks. :rolleyes:

I mean, seriously:

16 (including a regular seer and ranger and a hunter albeit a weaker one) against 3, + 2 that are yet to pick sides but for whom it makes way much more sense to side with the village and that can kill wolves too.

It can't be that easy, can it?

And see, Volo, someone proved Lommy's ominous maths wrong. ;)

I should probably shut up though. I seem to have created a habit of making a fool of myself on Day1. *would insert a self ironic smiley if I hadn't run out of the quota* I'll be back later!


edit: xed with Wyth and Kit!

[Gil-Galad]

Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.

Whatever happens happens, but i feel a hunt for the bear first would be a waste of effort on our part. Balance the playing field and hunt us some lions.

[wilwarin538]

We are now 16 innocents (ordos + gifteds), 2 lovers and 3 wolves. Assuming what I said above, there will be 13 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day2, 10 + 2 +3 in the beginning of Day3, 7 + 2 + 3 on Day4 and 4 + 2 + 3 on Day5.

....

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

I guess my inner pessimist just keeps thinking this game can't be as easy as it looks. :rolleyes:

I mean, seriously:

16 (including a regular seer and ranger and a hunter albeit a weaker one) against 3, + 2 that are yet to pick sides but for whom it makes way much more sense to side with the village and that can kill wolves too.

It can't be that easy, can it?


Really it'll only get super easy if we get rid of the double night kills early, if that happens than yeah we have a huge advantage number wise. But as long as we lose two people per night our numbers are going to dwindle very fast. Hopefully we just get lucky with lynches or the baddies do accidentally kill each other. Could really go any way here. One good thing is that with this many players our gifteds are fairly well hidden.

And that's an interesting point Gil, the Lions and Bear are just as afraid of each other as we are of them, and at this point they are just as much a threat to each other.

(I'm not going to get any work done today, haha, this is such a distraction!)

[Inziladun]

"There is only one god, yeast, and when it refuses to rise we say 'not today'."

Heh, I like that.

Wilwa of House Mormont gives good advice concerning lovers and hunter. I agree. Galadriel the wildling adds some sense, too, but Inzil of House Tully's comments on Wilwa's points seem more looking-to-be-helpful rather than actually helpful to me. Then again, Encai finds him helpful, so maybe I'm too eager to find something suspicious in what little has been posted so far.

Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you. Then again, it might be more worrisome if you didn't fire a shot or two my way Day 1. :rolleyes:

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?

Well, the Lions should be the main focus, as there are more of them. The bear kills too though, and the lack of a specific allegiance always seems to make it much harder to spot.

Right. But shouldn't the hunter do so then, right now? Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?

I would say the hunter revealing could be useful later in the game, when known innocents are more of a headache to the baddies. If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever.

I'm the Targaryen! :rolleyes:

We could use this time to forge an alliance with the Lovers.
Early in the game it makes sense not to pressure the Lovers.
It also makes sense for the Lovers to try and hunt down Lannisters,
since Lannisters are the greatest danger to the Lovers at this moment.
If the advantage shifts to the Lannisters in a couple of Days,
we might want to reconsider (meaning making personal notes on Lover suspicion).
I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with.

I'm more concerned about last-minute shifts of allegiance. Lovers will be looking constantly to see which was the wind blows, though it is certainly in their best interest to hunt Lions.

My biggest fear with the lovers is the extra kill at night. Though, they could take down a lion with this kill, which would be wonderful. And while a cobbler can be dangerous later in the game I'm not overly concerned if we lynch a lover and get one. Ideally the lions will target one and the remaining lover will be on the village's side. I'd really like to be rid of a second kill at night, but I'm not about to actively hunt the lovers. But I'm also not going to sweat it too much if we lynch one instead of a lion.

I think this is sensible. At least a Cobbler won't be killing us at Night.

[Boromir88]

I took the freedom to mend your quote for you, Boro of House Bolton. :p


*glares at Mac*

Where is Eomer of the House Stark? I'm here to let you know declare your enemies and Bolton stands behind you. Be advised not to listen to any Tully...they're not of the North and can't help us in matters of war and death.

[Galadriel55]

Oh, and, why on earth does everybody assume the hunter will be a known innocent if s/he lives an extra Day when the rules make it clear s/he can't reveal?

Well, doesn't the Hunter already use his ability by surviving an extra Day, and can kinda do whatever they want since they're as good as dead by the next Nightfall? They've spent their power already, so they have nothing left to lose by revealing. :smokin:

Lommy's math is ominous. I would rest easier if someone proved her wrong.

What in Westeros is that supposed to mean?

But at that point (surviving the Night-kill) the hunter would have no power to lose, so no reason *not* to reveal; at least that's how I read it.

Yes, that's what I meant. Especially since the wolves/bear always know who the Hunter is, and the village doesn't always (only if he's lynched). The wolves and lovers know who they target and Night, we don't. That means that if the Hunter stays quiet, they have a Day to mop up their tracks and we are still walking in ignorance. If we don't know who they wanted to kill, we lack that much info on who to lynch that Day. The wolves/bear have one on us.

However, and this is something I have not considered when I started writing this post, the non-kill could just be a Ranger save from their perspective. They won't know either if said person is a Hunter or an unknown someone. Heck, the Ranger could be protecting a Lion from a Bear! I need to digest this thought, I can't think of all the consequences of this right away.

The narration will let you know if there's a ranger save or, indeed, if someone refuses to die.

Aw. That kinda kills it. Never mind the last cool thought.

I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?).

Or at any rate it could draw out a desperate wolf. Either way, I can't see any negative consequence to this, but I can see several positive ones.

The Lovers won't be making any specific allegiances until later in the game when it's clear which side is doing better. If we manage to get a wolf early on then they'll probably side more with us, but if we go days without being successful they probably won't. If we want them on our side we have to do well, basically.

I agree more or less with this statement, but it bothers me slightly that you are so sure about it.

*Puts his suspicious eyes on* Getting nervous eh?

Edit: Well since reading page 2 and the posts agreeing with the strategy, maybe you are innocent after all. I'll still be keeping my eye out though. I have yet to fully trust any of you. Wilwarin's posts almost seem too helpful to be genuine after all.

Hey, it only takes a village to follow a clever wolf's lead into stupidity. It doesn't hurt to think differently. The fact that people agree doesn't make a thing less stupid. So if you think it's stupid, say that it's stupid, because maybe it just is. :)

The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

But then the lovers risk an easy lose. If they're in the open and we lynch one to get rid of the second Night-kill and an extra wolf vote, or just lynch them for whatever reason, they don't win. They have to be sure that IF they come out, they will not be killed OR lynched.

Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.

On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!

[wilwarin538]

I agree more or less with this statement, but it bothers me slightly that you are so sure about it.



I'm working under the assumption that they are intelligent players. The whole point of Lovers is they want to live to the end and they could care less which team wins, so yeah, they'll wait to make any allegiances until it's clear which side is winning. It's an assumption I feel comfortable being sure about.



On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!


That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.

[Encaitare]

I'm working under the assumption that they are intelligent players.

Assume nothing! Love can make anyone into a blithering idiot. :D

That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.

I think it would behoove the lions/wolves to not worry so much about the Bear right now. It's good for them to have two kills a night, for now. Could go either way, though.

I'm not sensing a clear direction for the voting yet... I shall have to go back and peruse your posts once again. We have yet to hear from Eonwe, A Little Green, and Nogrod. Are they quivering with fear in the corner (AKA doing real life things) or trying to fly low under the radar?

[Rikae]

Ergo:

Wolves - Skip, Eomer and Sally or Encai, or possibly Nogrod, Lottie or me

Lovers - Wilwa and Rikae

Seer - Coppermirror (or possibly Volo)

Ranger - Eönwë

Hunter - the one of Encai and Sally that isn't a wolf, or possibly Mac


See, I solved the game purely based on ic stuff. Can I have cake now? :p

Going to bed now, I'm too tired to think about dynamics with a changed hunter and a werebear and their lover. You guys be good and figure it out while I sleep. :Merisu: I'll be back around the European noon and make more sense then.

It would be hilarious if you listed all the lions correctly here. It wouldn't even be the first time someone did that - in fact, I think a wolf has done that before.

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

I can see reasons for pretty much anyone to reveal as Targaryen, if they're willing to take the risk. A Targaryen who survives a kill attempt is a known innocent, but someone who simply reveals as one will not be, as far as I'm concerned.

Now I see the odds aren't quite that bad (and anyway, in most games the village starts to be screwed if they don't kill any wolves before Day4) so maybe I shouldn't try to scare you guys. The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.
Duly noted...

Edit: X'd with Encai

[Gil-Galad]

On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!



That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.

Is there a new role that reads my mind and posts for me?

It is the beginning of the game, and if we focus on removing the Bear and succeed in that, we simply remove another threat from the Lions. Sure, the Lions and Bear might work together to take out us innocents, but I find that unlikely since:

A: They don't know who each other are, so as much as they want to be buddies, they could end up killing each other off.

B: They are a bigger threat to each other this early in the game, since this is the first day and battle lines haven't been drawn yet.

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

It is a double-edged sword, but by removing the Bear as a threat to the villagers we help the Lions. The greatest strength the villagers have is numbers, we can take a few blows for the greater good (the greater good) while we get a lay of the land. This is the nature of the game, and we cannot fight it.

So if the Bear is reading this, I don't want you to be afraid but know that though it is (currently) 1/21 chance to be lynched, it would be a 1/18 chance for a Lion to get you. This whole talk of "getting the bear first" plays right into the Lion's hands, who just want another threat to them removed off the board in the guise of saving the innocents.

Our key enemy here is the Lions, and the rules of the game dictate we must die for the greater good (the greater good), which I wholeheartedly accept and understand.

[Rikae]

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.


If we've lynched two lions, the bear will probably side with us.

[Gil-Galad]

If we've lynched two lions, the bear will probably side with us.

Just a clarification, game over when all Lions are dead right? We don't have to hunt the bear as well do we?

[wilwarin538]

If we've lynched two lions, the bear will probably side with us.

But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?

Just a clarification, game over when all Lions are dead right? We don't have to hunt the bear as well do we?

I hadn't even thought of this....

[wilwarin538]

K, I think we're complicating it a bit. According to the admin thread "The innocents win when all Lions have been eliminated." So yeah, as soon as the Lions are all gone, the Village wins and if both Bear/Maiden are alive they win as well. In a traditional Bear game I think we would have had to keep hunting to get the Bear before we could win, but in this case he is foremost a Lover; so the traditional way for lovers to win is what applies here.

[Gil-Galad]

But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?


The way I see it:

We lynch the bear, lose a night kill but the Lions gain a cobbler.

Lions kill the bear, innocents gain a helper and we still lose a night kill.


I prefer the odds of a Lion killing off a bear/maiden then us lynching them and essentially helping the Lions. Sure, the two-kill night could kill off more innocents, but could also kill off a lion and an innocent.

Looking at the alternatives, lynching a bear/maiden will just end up helping the Lions more then helping the innocents.

[Boromir88]

It's no surprise wilwa understands bears better than the rest, but she's got a thing or two to learn about lions...

Lions the family and the name comes first. They will use the other houses as their weapons. In an inn this large, with this many families with divided loyalties and alterior motives it would be easy to lay low and let us do their dirty work, while taking out their worst threats at night.

If the lions know who the bear and/or maiden is then they'll likely only become concerned if the bear becomes a clear threat by killing off Lions. However, the wiser move would be as I said, to use us as their weapons to get one of the lovers lynched, that way the other becomes a cobbler for them. And again in this inn with this many different allegiances it can be easier for the Lions to keep their paws clean.

[Nerwen]

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.
Gil, you talk (and this isn't the only example) as though we could somehow plan this! :confused:

Edit: x'd with Boro.

[Rikae]

But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?

I wonder if he has to do night kills (moddess?)

If the lovers have decided to side with us, I assume he'd use the night kills to attempt to take out the last wolf. If he has no leads, maybe he'd skip the kill?

[skip spence]

I can see reasons for pretty much anyone to reveal as Targaryen, if they're willing to take the risk. A Targaryen who survives a kill attempt is a known innocent, but someone who simply reveals as one will not be, as far as I'm concerned.

I don't see why anyone would fake-reveal as the Targaryan if not for some desperate self-preservation need. The risk would out-weigh the gain since the real Targaryan would start to wonder.
I would say the hunter revealing could be useful later in the game, when known innocents are more of a headache to the baddies. If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever.
Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.

But enough of that, we have to trust the Targaryan's own judgement on this.

Would the real Targaryan please stand up? ;)

Anyway, I have to vote now since I probably won't have time to do it later. This is of course a stab in the dark but I'll go with:

++Gil Galad

He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.

X:d from Boro

[Coppermirror]

This is an interesting Day 1! Lots of useful discussion about the numbers in the inn, the bear and maiden and alliances, and the Targaryen. I rather adore the changed dynamic from the other, smaller games I've been in.

The only problem is that most of this won't directly help us catch the lions. 21 in the Inn, made up of 16 innocents, 3 Lannisters, and the Bear and Maiden of undefined allegiance. Most of the people talking will be innocent or undefined, so though it's a good day for innocent discussion and planning, the odds are really against picking out a Lannister.

I'm going to go and huddle by the fire under my many shawls and review what people have said so far. :smokin: Mayhap I'll drink some ale while I'm at it.

Edit: crossed with Skip Spence

[Gil-Galad]

Gil, you talk (and this isn't the only example) as though we could somehow plan this! :confused:

Edit: x'd with Boro.

I merely state an idealistic path for us to focus on. I was more saying to focus on lynching lions and letting bears be bears. As the rules state, game ends when all lions are dead. The bear could help the lions, but that risks themselves to die by them. The bear can kill off 16 villagers, and by pure luck have it and the maiden survive, but then by then the Lions will just kill them off and win.

Edit: x'd with Cop and Skip the bold

[Kitanna]

Soooo I just got back to work today after 4 1/2 days of being gone and I cannot describe my current working situation in family friendly terms. I honestly don't think I will be able to contribute much more today. I have two 15 minutes breaks between now and DL, so my vote will be entirely random or will be based on flimsy feelings if I can find a suspicious post while I skim over the thread.

I'll be more active D2 when I've caught up at the office and the weekend descends. Sorry about this, didn't realize the world feel apart when I took a few days off. :rolleyes:

[Macalaure]

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.
Well, maybe. The numbers may be on your side, but it would also mean we'd be without a proper analyzable wolf kill for two Nights. That doesn't help us.

For your second part: interesting that you said you were panicked about the double night kills but you want to focus on the wolves. I think killing one of either the bear or maiden is a better goal cause that's killing one person to decrease the night kills, rather than killing 3. Though, I don't know exactly how we could go about targeting the bear/maiden specifically, my hope is one gets taken out at night so we don't get a cobbler, but even if we lynch one getting a cobbler isn't the end of the world. Plus, once one of them is dead it could be easy to figure out who their lover was based on their posts (if we do get a cobbler).
This one irks me a bit. Yes, the lovers can become a problem if they choose to, but the way for us to win is to take out the wolves. Unless it becomes obvious at some point that the lovers have sided with the wolves, focusing on lynching a lover is counter-productive. It's also a bit wolfish: if we lynch a lover instead of the wolves killing one, not only are we doing their work (they fear them as much as we do), but we're also gifting them a cobbler. Nobody seems to be concerned about that.

Then again, reading on, Wilwa's thoughts about the lovers seem more innocent-ish and trying-to-figure-it-out-right-ish. Then again, Wilwa is one main reason nearly all we do is talk about lovers instead about wolves, which I don't like.

I'd really like to be rid of a second kill at night, but I'm not about to actively hunt the lovers.
This one seems fishy, too. "I don't like the lovers, but I don't want to do anything about it" - Subtly leading the inn towards looking for lovers more than looking for wolves, while keeping their own hands clean. Don't like it.

The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.
This would make me suspicious as well, for the same reasons as above. "The lovers are not as bad as I said before, but they're still very bad". The thing is, would a wolf state it in all-bold?

Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you.
This coming in response to the slightest early Day One suspicion? Woah, there.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gil, you talk (and this isn't the only example) as though we could somehow plan this! :confused:

That's confusing me a bit too. Lot of discussion about whether or not to kill lions or the bear first. Well, how do we kill any of them?

I just can't tell if the villains are likely to be engaged in this discussion or whether they'll sit at the sides.

[Gil-Galad]

Anyway, I have to vote now since I probably won't have time to do it later. This is of course a stab in the dark but I'll go with:

++Gil Galad

He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.

X:d from Boro

Ha, I had a feeling I would get some votes on the first day because I was being talkative (I have a history of these games of either being lynched for talking too much or not talking enough) and I am a safe lynch vote at this point. But I honestly thought my defense of the bear was being rather strong and forward, and even controversial. I wanted conflict, not to be careful, and hopefully draw out some Lions. Throw caution to the wind!

Sure it is a moot point, but what else are we talking about? Which houses we belong too (which has no effect on the role detirmination of the game that I know of)?

I have an idea of who I want to vote for, but will hold off till closer to deadline time.

[Aganzir]

I wonder if he has to do night kills (moddess?)
Yes he does. Foul murder is in his nature. Otherwise he'd probably get so hungry he'd eat the Maiden Fair. (This is actually not a threat.)

[Nogrod]

I forgot the game yesterday-evening and am now busy watching football... I'll try to get this read through though and hopefully contribute something later. Sorry.

Looking at the brighter side: for once I'm not flooding the thread with theories and 20+ posts on D1! :p

[Rikae]

I don't see why anyone would fake-reveal as the Targaryan if not for some desperate self-preservation need. The risk would out-weigh the gain since the real Targaryan would start to wonder.

And that's all the real Targaryen could do, unless he was a)killed and b) won the coin toss. He couldn't even counter-reveal without losing his power.

Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?

[wilwarin538]

I don't see why anyone would fake-reveal as the Targaryan if not for some desperate self-preservation need. The risk would out-weigh the gain since the real Targaryan would start to wonder.


I played in a game once as a hunter and an ord (don't remember who) fake revealed as the hunter and basically forced me to come forward. So yeah, anything is possible, reveals should always be approached carefully, they can't always be trusted right away. And having Targaryen reveal this early wouldn't really be that beneficial, best to save it to closer to the end or give them a shot at getting a baddie. I'm completely comfortable saying that if someone claims to be Targaryen this early in the game, I will be very suspicious of them (even if they are at risk of being lynched).


Then again, Wilwa is one main reason nearly all we do is talk about lovers instead about wolves, which I don't like.


There isn't much to say about wolves day 1, especially when there isn't anything special about them. All there is to get discussion going at the beginning is to talk about the unique aspects of the game.

x'ed with Nog and Rikae, who I agree with

[Rikae]

This one irks me a bit. Yes, the lovers can become a problem if they choose to, but the way for us to win is to take out the wolves. Unless it becomes obvious at some point that the lovers have sided with the wolves, focusing on lynching a lover is counter-productive. It's also a bit wolfish: if we lynch a lover instead of the wolves killing one, not only are we doing their work (they fear them as much as we do), but we're also gifting them a cobbler. Nobody seems to be concerned about that.

Getting rid of a night kill is surely worth having a cobbler around, and I wouldn't be so sure the wolves are willing to kill the bear.

Unless it becomes obvious the bear is siding with the village, there's a good chance the wolves will appreciate the help in decreasing our numbers. They could form an alliance through hints; after all, in Lommy's scenario, the five of them could win quite quickly together.

Yes he does. Foul murder is in his nature. Otherwise he'd probably get so hungry he'd eat the Maiden Fair. (This is actually not a threat.)

That's unfortunate. And all I have is a tourney sword!

Yeah, the bear will be a threat to the village in any event, and I, for one, will happily vote for anyone I strongly suspect of being black and brown and covered in hair!

++Macalaure

;)

Oh, by the way, Skip's vote doesn't count, does it? Aren't we supposed to do this newfangled highlighting nowadays?

[Encaitare]

Yeah, the bear will be a threat to the village in any event, and I, for one, will happily vote for anyone I strongly suspect of being black and brown and covered in hair!

++Macalaure

;)

Uh-oh, Wyth had better watch out then, too! :p

[Aganzir]

Oh, by the way, Skip's vote doesn't count, does it? Aren't we supposed to do this newfangled highlighting nowadays?
I'm willing to overlook unhighlighted votes that are clearly meant as a vote on Day 1, but if you people keep making prank votes, I do ask you to highlight your actual vote from now on. ;) [ highlight ] ++Kath [/ highlight] results in red text.

[Macalaure]

Getting rid of a night kill is surely worth having a cobbler around, and I wouldn't be so sure the wolves are willing to kill the bear.
The cobbler isn't my greatest concern either, but the fact that no one seems to care at all makes me feel like there's something furry going on in the discussion.

Even if the wolves enjoy the presence of the bear, I'm sure they will enjoy it even more if we spend our time trying to kill him instead of going after them, thus increasing their likelihood of staying alive and then gift-wrapping them a cobbler while on top of it.

Yeah, the bear will be a threat to the village in any event, and I, for one, will happily vote for anyone I strongly suspect of being black and brown and covered in hair!

++Macalaure

*siiiiiiiigh* :rolleyes: :p

[skip spence]

I played in a game once as a hunter and an ord (don't remember who) fake revealed as the hunter and basically forced me to come forward. So yeah, anything is possible, reveals should always be approached carefully, they can't always be trusted right away. And having Targaryen reveal this early wouldn't really be that beneficial, best to save it to closer to the end or give them a shot at getting a baddie. I'm completely comfortable saying that if someone claims to be Targaryen this early in the game, I will be very suspicious of them (even if they are at risk of being lynched).

Haha I think that was me! :D

As I remember, I was on the verge of being lynched near dead-line, and the Village was losing handsomely, so I hoped that that fake reveal would save me (it did) and that we would get a wolf instead of me (we didn't). Then I was lynched the next day for being slippery and the village lost. :(

[Loslote]

I'm on my lunch break right now, so I've had time to read through the thread, but I'll probably have to post, vote, and run pretty quickly here. I've only gotten impressions on some of you. I'll note down what I've got, but this game is too big for a bunch of people not to slip right past my radar, so I'm not going to bother listing the people I don't have thoughts on.

Zil: His tone is a little formal in the way it gets sometimes when he's evil.
Lommy: Has been logical and helpful, and seems genuine enough about it.
Wilwa: Has been focusing a lot of the attention on the hunter and bear, but since that is the only topic of conversation that's really stuck so far, I can't exactly fault her for that. Yes, the hunter and the bear aren't our priority - but it's better to have people talking and leaving tracks behind than sitting quietly, all agreeing that the wolves are our priorities. Wilwa looks pretty good in my eyes.
Galadriel: Her tone strikes me as a teeny bit too cautious, too thought-out. I'll keep an eye on her, but I wouldn't vote her yet.
WythDryden: Welcome to Werewolf!
Rikae: Has been very reasonable and logical. Her tone seems pretty calm, not too cautious, which either means she's not a wolf or that none of her packmates have attracted attention yet.
Mac: Strikes me as being fairly genuine in his tone. Seems to me to be more innocent than not so far
Gil: Nothing he's said has really caught my eye as being suspicious.
skip: I don't like his vote. Like Rikae said, it's a easy vote, and looks more like a wolf trying for an easy Day 1 lynch than an innocent with a genuine suspicion.

My lunch break is almost over by this point, so I'll have to vote really soon. Probably for skip unless something came up unexpectedly.

EDIT: xed since Wilwa's #76

[Loslote]

Alright, I've got to get back to work.

++skip

Good luck, village!

[wilwarin538]

Even if the wolves enjoy the presence of the bear, I'm sure they will enjoy it even more if we spend our time trying to kill him instead of going after them, thus increasing their likelihood of staying alive and then gift-wrapping them a cobbler while on top of it.


The thing is, even if people think we should be "going after" the Bear more than the Lions, or vice versa, saying that is one thing, doing it is another. How exactly are we supposed to go after one over the other? Especially this early in the game, when for the most part we are shooting blind with regards to both. The only instance I can think of where we would be purposefully choosing to lynch one over the other is if the Seer reveals the Bear and a Lion (wouldn't that be something?!) and we have to decide who to lynch first (I would say Bear, because getting rid of the two night kills is worth getting stuck with a cobbler).

So anyway, deciding whether we should be targeting one over the other isn't really all that productive to me. The methods of discovering either will be fairly similar I think (kill the bad guys!), and lynching the Bear would not be terrible to the point where we should be actively trying to avoid doing it.

(3 more hours, if I'm correct?)

x'ed 3 pages! x'ed with Skip and Lottie

[satansaloser2005]

Three pages? Three pages? THREE PAGES!

I hate you all.

++Lottie

Because that was a long list that rubbed me the wrong way and I don't have time to find anything better to base a vote on. Sorry, love.

[Nogrod]

Two thoughts for starters...

It's funny people speculate so enthusiastically whether we should go for the lions or the bear - I mean it would be nice if we were that good that we spotted them just like that in the first place and could then choose which one to lynch first... :rolleyes: That said, there can eventually be trails that lead from one lion to another but the bear is a shot in the dark unless his/her lover is in trouble. So let's just go for suspicious behaviour first and make more informed decisions when we have something to base them on.


Mac Connington's - or should we call him Mr. Griff - toying with the Targaryen-revealment is probably the only thing that caught my eye thus far. Although I'm not sure I can see a reason for anyone to do that kind of thing (be it a correct or a false hint). *baffled*


EDIT: X'd with all on page 3.

[Boromir88]

Anyway, I have to vote now since I probably won't have time to do it later. This is of course a stab in the dark but I'll go with:


I daresay an ex-Lannister imp knows how to stab people in the dark. I'm confused how he's come up with those opinions on Gil. That is, I disagree with them, but it's an early random vote that looks innocent. Nothing more, nothing less, and nothing schemed about it.


I just can't tell if the villains are likely to be engaged in this discussion or whether they'll sit at the sides.

There's always a motive for the wolves to stir up discussion and be involved in other roles besides their own. It distracts us from the task on the day...lynching them. There are certainly lions in this Targaryan/bear/lovers/hunters discussion. It's not all beneficial to them however...

1. Being Day 1 it's hard to spot the good plotting from bad plotting, best to just keep everyone talking and hope time will reveal the good from the bad before it's too late.

2. With discussion being all about the other roles today, such as the bear and Targaryan, it makes it far easier the more helpful, and unquestioned allegiance, roles to lay low and avoid both the wolves and the bear at night.

It may make finding our way through the days cruel...innocents will be killed mercilessly, but it's all for the greater good.

In any event I have to vote:

++Inzil

*disappears with no further words*

(Edit: Ok, not the last word because I started this and we were at 2 pages, and I finish now we're a good start onto 3 :) )

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Inzil
I would say the hunter revealing could be useful later in the game, when known innocents are more of a headache to the baddies. If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever.

Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.
This is assuming the known ordo/Targaryan can survive through the off night. I agree with Zil. Right now there is no reason for the hunter to reveal. I'm not sure why skip thinks having the hunter step forward is good. We have a known innocent who knows as much as every ordo in this game which at this point is nothing.

[Rikae]

Quick question, sorry if it's a silly one, but it's been a long time since I read the books:

is "for the greater good" some kind of ASOIAF reference?

[Gil-Galad]

Quick question, sorry if it's a silly one, but it's been a long time since I read the books:

is "for the greater good" some kind of ASOIAF reference?

Whenever I say "the greater good" I think of the Simon Pegg movie Hot Fuzz, when they all murmur in a monotone voice "the greater good..." so when I was talking I couldn't help but add that reference.

[wilwarin538]

Ok, so I guess it's time to start focusing on individuals and take a moment away from the discussion on game mechanics. Only a little over two hours to go.

I'm not seeing anything abundantly suspicious in anyone yet, but there are a few red flags here and there. My thoughts currently:

Skip: I really don't like his suggestion about the hunter revealing. Having a known innocent isn't all that useful right now, at least not compared to how it could be in a few more days. Also not a fan of his vote, but really Day 1 votes kinda always suck.

Lottie: her list is very non-confrontational (best word I can think of to describe it) appears helpful but really nothing majorly negative about anyone. But, she's doing this from work as I am, and probably doesn't have the freedom that I do to contribute more substance.

Gil-Galad: talking way more than I ever remember him talking in WW, but to be fair I probably am too. I have agreed with a lot of what he's said, so I don't know, iffy here.

Mac: seems very nervous about the potential of having a cobbler, don't really get that, frankly they aren't that huge of a threat, certainly not compared to an extra night kill.

Lommy: seems to think this game is "too easy", which I don't really see right now, likely losing 2 people a night and therefore increasing our chances of losing gifteds and our numbers dwindling quickly, is not what I would call easy. And that was in stark contrast to what she previously said about our bad odds.

I feel pretty good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Everyone else I am neutral about at the moment.

So my vote? Will wait a while longer, should be able to stick around close to DL, not getting much work done anyway, and I'd like more to go on.

note: had a tough time posting this, my work computer seems to not like the Downs, maybe it's trying to tell me to get back to work, haha, but if I don't come back it's because my computer won't let me, hopefully that doesn't happen!

[Macalaure]

Mac: seems very nervous about the potential of having a cobbler, don't really get that, frankly they aren't that huge of a threat, certainly not compared to an extra night kill.
Not concerned about the cobbler itself, but I've got the feeling that some people have been trying to exaggerate the bear-threat to the point of prioritizing him over the wolves. Of course those people like to downplay the influence of a cobbler. In connection, I find this suspicious.


Anyway, I'm not sure I'll be able to be around much at the deadline, so I better make my mind up about my vote.

[A Little Green]

Goodness I'm so sorry, I had no idea the game had started! :o Here and reading now.

[Galadriel55]

The way I see it:

We lynch the bear, lose a night kill but the Lions gain a cobbler.

Lions kill the bear, innocents gain a helper and we still lose a night kill.


I prefer the odds of a Lion killing off a bear/maiden then us lynching them and essentially helping the Lions. Sure, the two-kill night could kill off more innocents, but could also kill off a lion and an innocent.

Looking at the alternatives, lynching a bear/maiden will just end up helping the Lions more then helping the innocents.

Ok, I know you're not the first to say this, and you probably won't be the last, but it's just got to be said and your post happened to have taken the blow. Unless you're a Lion, you can't make the lions kill who you want them to kill, and if you are a lion, you're not gonna kill those who ham you with their deaths (ie the kind the village wants you to kill). So yes, it's ideal if the Lions get the Bear, but we can't make it happen, so leave the beaten horse alone and start doing something that we can make happen.

/end rant.

Gil, you talk (and this isn't the only example) as though we could somehow plan this! :confused:

Thought so too at this post, but realised that Gil will be Gil. I can see him posting that as any role. Yes, his posts are rather... Gil, but that particular one wasn't big enough to make me actually suspect him.


Another thing a bunch of people said is that we're talking about lovers too much and lions too little. Well, what do you want in the first-in-several-years game with lovers? That's the first point. The second one is that how exactly are you planning to find wolves with no votes, no kills, no posts, no nothing? Discussion of the roles is as good a place as any to start chatting. To be quite honest, I'm very happy with the start of this game. A typical D1 has 20 hours dedicated to complete silence, 3 to IC and banter, and the rest to something that sounds like "I don't like the way he phrased his IC post, I'll vote for him". Ok fine, that was an exaggeration, but you get the point. This game there's a good discussion going on the various possibilities for the new roles and rules, something that could also be reread later on with a bit more known roles. It's true that we have to look out for people to vote (in 2h I believe), but saying "look for suspicion" isn't gonna help you get people to talk. A good discussion will. If everyone says "Let's look for wolves!", you're not gonna find any, because there's nothing more left to say. People who encourage others to restrict discussion on D1 to "looking for wolves/lions" do a very good job of allowing the wolves to hide beneath these words.

/end rant #2

There isn't much to say about wolves day 1, especially when there isn't anything special about them. All there is to get discussion going at the beginning is to talk about the unique aspects of the game.

Thank you!

Getting rid of a night kill is surely worth having a cobbler around, and I wouldn't be so sure the wolves are willing to kill the bear.

Yes. This.

The cobbler isn't my greatest concern either, but the fact that no one seems to care at all makes me feel like there's something furry going on in the discussion.

Actually, the cobbler has been mentioned several times at the very beginning, and most of us seem to agree that a Night kill is a good trade for a cobbler. What's more to say on the discussion? What do you want people to say? And why are you agitating people so much against killing one of the lovers? I can't say I'm liking the way you're pushing the trend.

So anyway, deciding whether we should be targeting one over the other isn't really all that productive to me. The methods of discovering either will be fairly similar I think (kill the bad guys!), and lynching the Bear would not be terrible to the point where we should be actively trying to avoid doing it.

(3 more hours, if I'm correct?)

Wilwa, I'm liking you more and more with each post. :D And 2 hours.



And now it's time for me to start looking at specific people... but that will have to wait a bit.

[Inziladun]

Holy smokes, this is a big village. And a lot of people are posting. On Day 1! That's good, but it's also a headache for those doomed to be at work. ;)

Assume nothing! Love can make anyone into a blithering idiot. :D

Truer words were never spoken.

I'm not sensing a clear direction for the voting yet... I shall have to go back and peruse your posts once again. We have yet to hear from Eonwe, A Little Green, and Nogrod. Are they quivering with fear in the corner (AKA doing real life things) or trying to fly low under the radar?

A "clear direction"? It's a first for me playing with you, but I hope that doesn't indicate a Lion waiting to see which way the wind blows.

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

Easier said than done, sir.

Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.

Than again, I think the ranger ought to be more concerned with protecting possible Seers, rather than the Hunter!
And I still say a revealed Hunter would be more damaging to the Lions later.

Soooo I just got back to work today after 4 1/2 days of being gone and I cannot describe my current working situation in family friendly terms. I honestly don't think I will be able to contribute much more today. I have two 15 minutes breaks between now and DL, so my vote will be entirely random or will be based on flimsy feelings if I can find a suspicious post while I skim over the thread.

My sympathies. I had an RL situation come up myself. It's unlikely I'll be around for DL, so my vote will come soonish.

This coming in response to the slightest early Day One suspicion? Woah, there.

Now, now. For some reason I always want to suspect you, and it seems its mutual. I want to give you a pass though toDay. As I said, if you ignored me or thought I seemed innocent I would be more concerned.

Right now I'm thinking of voting skip, for the business about the Hunter revealing (and the Seer focusing their protection there) and his seemingly easy vote on Gil.

x/d with G55 and Greenie

[Macalaure]

Blissfully absent:
Eonwe
Green Lommyhands

New to the game / haven't played with before (as far as I'm aware), so vote-exempt for now:
Loslote, Wyth, Copper (not too concerned about either of them at this point)

Seem innocent at the moment:
Encai (feels good)
Wilwa (been disagreeing with her, but she sounds innocent)
Rikae (playful Rikae is ordo-Rikae, or so I'd like to think)
Volo (feels good, too)
Gil (same)

No clue either way, really:
Lommy Greenhands (mostly fine, but just too much bear-talk overall)
Nerwen (does seem alright, but only a fool trusts Nerwen)
Galadriel (no real feeling either way)
Eomer (same here)
Nogrod (hasn't said enough yet)
Sally (hasn't said much either)
Skip (said plenty, but I don't know what to do with him)

Somewhat fishy:
Inzil (seems nervous)
Kitanna (really just this one line I pointed out earlier, very flimsy suspicion)
Boro (something seems off, can't put my finger on it)

Very fishy:
nobody

Totally fishy:
nobody

A lot of gut feeling in this list, and nobody sticks out as truly deserving of a vote. Day One at its best.


PS: more house sigil avatars everybody! :smokin:

PPS: crossed with two loooong posts there

[wilwarin538]

Another thing a bunch of people said is that we're talking about lovers too much and lions too little. Well, what do you want in the first-in-several-years game with lovers? That's the first point. The second one is that how exactly are you planning to find wolves with no votes, no kills, no posts, no nothing? Discussion of the roles is as good a place as any to start chatting. To be quite honest, I'm very happy with the start of this game. A typical D1 has 20 hours dedicated to complete silence, 3 to IC and banter, and the rest to something that sounds like "I don't like the way he phrased his IC post, I'll vote for him". Ok fine, that was an exaggeration, but you get the point. This game there's a good discussion going on the various possibilities for the new roles and rules, something that could also be reread later on with a bit more known roles. It's true that we have to look out for people to vote (in 2h I believe), but saying "look for suspicion" isn't gonna help you get people to talk. A good discussion will. If everyone says "Let's look for wolves!", you're not gonna find any, because there's nothing more left to say. People who encourage others to restrict discussion on D1 to "looking for wolves/lions" do a very good job of allowing the wolves to hide beneath these words.


Preach!

PS: more house sigil avatars everybody!

Uhm, mine is a bear...I think I'll pass :p

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

If everyone says "Let's look for wolves!", you're not gonna find any, because there's nothing more left to say. People who encourage others to restrict discussion on D1 to "looking for wolves/lions" do a very good job of allowing the wolves to hide beneath these words.

Hmm... not sure about this.

I would argue that lions (let's not bring traditional bigotry against the noble wolf into this game, people!) would find it far easier to hide in a drawn-out discussion on game mechanics.

I always fancy that we can find lions - usually, in subsequent days I grant you - if we had gotten right down into the mud-slinging as early as possible on Day 1. You see this in the more basic games, for sure; I don't think this general tactic should change in the more complex ones.

For that reason, I'm somewhat suspicious of those guests who are chummying up to others by praising the "good discussion" they are engaged in - and which gets us no nearer a good old-fashioned lion-lynching.

[Kitanna]

I have a meeting at DL so this is probably the last I will be on until well after D1.

++Skip

Not as random as I thought it would be, but built on flimsy reasoning. Skip has been the only one to really draw my attention. His belief that having a known innocent in exchange for a secret hunter doesn't feel right. It feels like he's pushing for something that could and probably will be harmful for the village by drawing ranger resources to protect someone who has no knowledge of anyone else's role and therefore their only benefit is being a known innocent for a day or two.

[Macalaure]

Actually, the cobbler has been mentioned several times at the very beginning, and most of us seem to agree that a Night kill is a good trade for a cobbler. What's more to say on the discussion? What do you want people to say? And why are you agitating people so much against killing one of the lovers? I can't say I'm liking the way you're pushing the trend.
It's Day One, and there's nothing to say. Our only hope for a good voting is the small chance that a wolf slips up. Poking people and watching what happens increases that chance slightly. It's my usual strategy.
It rarely results in me getting no votes on Day One, but so be it. :D

I still do think the lovers shouldn't be our first concern, though.

As I said, if you ignored me or thought I seemed innocent I would be more concerned.
On second thought, I think Inzil looks quite innocent. I will ignore him for now. :p

Uhm, mine is a bear...I think I'll pass

What's wrong with bears? :D

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

What's wrong with bears? :D

You just made a big mistake, pal. :p

[Galadriel55]

Hmm... not sure about this.

I would argue that lions (let's not bring traditional bigotry against the noble wolf into this game, people!) would find it far easier to hide in a drawn-out discussion on game mechanics.

I always fancy that we can find lions - usually, in subsequent days I grant you - if we had gotten right down into the mud-slinging as early as possible on Day 1. You see this in the more basic games, for sure; I don't think this general tactic should change in the more complex ones.

For that reason, I'm somewhat suspicious of those guests who are chummying up to others by praising the "good discussion" they are engaged in - and which gets us no nearer a good old-fashioned lion-lynching.

Lynch a lion. Go. Be my guest. Can you see one? Can you find one? Are you going to find one by yelling "go find lions!" at the top of your lungs? I'm a fan of getting lions/wolves/whatever. I'm not a fan of people telling other people to go look for them.

EDIT: xed since quoted

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Lynch a lion. Go. Be my guest. Can you see one?

Maybe I can.

[Encaitare]

A "clear direction"? It's a first for me playing with you, but I hope that doesn't indicate a Lion waiting to see which way the wind blows.

Mmm, I can see how that might come across as bandwagonny, at the very least. At the time I posted, no one had yet voted. So I was more trying to express that I had no idea what anyone was going to base their votes on, as no one was appearing overtly suspicious to me. But I'm of the mind that Day 1 is pretty much a shot in the dark.


Lynch a lion. Go. Be my guest. Can you see one? Can you find one? Are you going to find one by yelling "go find lions!" at the top of your lungs? I'm a fan of getting lions/wolves/whatever. I'm not a fan of people telling other people to go look for them.

I think what Eomer is saying is that he would prefer that we start making accusations and see how everyone responds. You don't seem to like that. Are you invested in keeping the lions' identities a secret?

(Was that what more like you wanted, Eomer?)

Edit: cross-posted with Eomer.

[Thinlómien]

Eönwë - under the radar, which is a nice hiding place for a wolf (or a bear)
Inziladun - his normal self
Kitanna - also under the radar
Encaitare - seems a bit too trigger happy, but I'll give her the benefit of doubt toDay
wilwarin538 - makes sense and contributes and all that, but her bear-centrism feels sinister to me
Boromir88 - otherwise seems innocent enough but didn't give any reasoning for his vote which is always a bit weird
Loslote - notable: easy vote
Nerwen - I'm hoping to see her vote on Day1 again, I was so proud of her last game
Galadriel55 - calm down girl! definitely up there on my suspicion list for making a huge fuss about the bear discussion after the necessity of the bear discussion had already been beaten to death imho
A Little Green - nothing much yet
WythDryden - should be on invisible mode, otherwise fine
Eomer of the Rohirrim - I'm fighting very hard my knee-jerk suspicion of him before I see more of him (he and I seem to always suspect each other)
Rikae - seems innocent enough for now
Macalaure - the Mac I remember from previous games was way less chaotic! I'm baffled...
Coppermirror - can form a radar club with Eönwë and Kitanna
Nogrod - should concentrate on ww not football
Colin "Volo" Mute - I would like to observe him for longer before passing a judgement, but nothing worries me yet
Gil-Galad - actually seems quite innocent even though I disagree with his points
satansaloser2005 - radar club
skip spence - notable: easy vote (I feel like Gil and Skip himself are easy Day1 lynch targets because they think fast and sometimes a bit kneejerkily and are active enough to draw attention)


edit: xed with everything starting from #99

[Nogrod]

Lynch a lion. Go. Be my guest. Can you find one? Are you going to find one by yelling "go find lions!" at the top of your lungs? I'm a fan of getting lions/wolves/whatever. I'm not a fan of people telling other people to go look for them.The second odd thing of the Day thus far.

And I'm not a fan of those who point their fingers in this kind of vague fashion just implying something while actually not even doing it (not to talk of actually laying a claim or making an open suspicion) - looks pretty lionish to me. And anyway, with an hour to go we need to get something going by way of making suspicions.

So yes, I'm suspecting Galadriel the most at the moment. Going to read back next...


EDIT: X'd with Lommy

[Galadriel55]

RL calls, I must be briefer that I thought.

Did not stand out:
Eonwe
Enca (much too little impression of her yet, and my first game with her and all)
Zil - not much to say about him. He poked around but didn't stand out either way
Boro - see above
Kit - ditto
Greenie - didn't know the game is on
Rikae - doesn't feel innocent, but also doesn't feel guilty
Cop - somewhat crazy, but otherwise ok / no impression.
Nog - seems more absent than not, or maybe my impressions of him just got lost in the sea of posts and players.
sally - blank on her.


Eomer - picks and pokes, but looks ok.
Lommy - more flambuoyant than I remember, but no feeling either way.
Lottie - gives good vibes.
wilwa - me likey! Quite loud throughout a good portion of the Day, and she's very reasonable and makes sense.
Nerwen - looks like her usual self. Too early and too little posts from her to declare "feels innocent", but it's getting there.
Wyth - not much from him, eh? He made one pretty good point, then backed down. I'd say, good point, backing down like that is not the greatest strategy but I've done worse. I would not vote him either way, this being his first game, but even without that I wouldn't vote him. Good vibes maybe?
Mac - really don't like the way he pushes some discussion. His arguments don't make that much sense (slash I just don't agree, but then that's how we evaluate sense most of the time), and he's very insistent on them. However, he's blatantly running for the centre spotlight of attention, which is unwolvy. But still, the way he says some stuff just doesn't sound right. Vote candidate.
Gil - I don't like the way he posts, but he posts this way. I tend to give more slack for erratic and careless playing styles than most others, and this game is no exception. When I read his posts, I look more at the content than at how he says it.
Volo - don't remember much of him at this point, but some of the earlier things he said rubbed me the wrong way. They just don't sit right. Vote candidate.
skip - I don't agree with what he's said, and I don't like his vote, but I can understand his vote. At this point I think it's much easier to jump on him than claim that he jumped on Gil. So semi-vote candidate.
G55 - my lovely innocent self.


So I'm left with Volo and Mac as my two top candidates. Will check for cross posting and maybe review their posts and then vote.

EDIT: xed since my last

[Encaitare]

WythDryden - should be on invisible mode, otherwise fine

Wyth has been having account issues again. He is barred from posting at present, and I know he was definitely on Invisible Mode before, so maybe the two things are connected. *sigh* If he can't post on that account before the deadline, he will likely have to post as Lote22 again.

Edit: cross-posted with G55

[Nogrod]

Btw. would our gracious moddesses offer us a voting-tally thus far with all the non-highlighted votes & stuff confirmed?

[wilwarin538]

I'm remembering now how much I dislike Day 1 votes. Looks like I may be getting pulled away from my desk soon, not sure how long it'll take so won't take the chance that I can't come back.

Going with:

++Skip

Because his ideas about the hunter were odd and I don't think they were really in our best interest. Not a lot to go on, I know, but my best hunch right now.

Hopefully I can come back on, I'll see how long this meeting goes, if not: good luck!

x'ed with G55, Encai (that sucks! Hopefully it gets sorted out!), and Nog

[Inziladun]

Ok, my time toDay is up.

I can't see anyone else who pings the radar as much, so it's

++skip

x/d with Enca, Nog, and Wilwa

[Thinlómien]

Skip -> Gil
Lottie -> Skip
Sally -> Lottie
Boro -> Inzil
Kit -> Skip 2
Wilwa -> Skip 3
Inzil -> Skip 4

edit: xed with Nog's request and the two last votes, added

[Galadriel55]

I think what Eomer is saying is that he would prefer that we start making accusations and see how everyone responds.

And my point is that be my guest - make accusations. Don't tell others to start making them. Start the job yourself, get the stone rolling. People aren't gonna suspect anyone if all they do is encourage each other to make the first step.

EDIT: whoa! xed with a bunch of votes

[Macalaure]

You just made a big mistake, pal. :p
*tries to hide the honey in his hair*

Feeling better about Eomer and Galadriel as well. She's sooo insistent that we can't get a wolf today (not that I'm optimistic by any stretch), I highly doubt a wolf would act this way, and lacking a cobbler, she's most likely innocent.

(crossed with numbers 3 and 4 of the Skip-bandwaggon)

[Rikae]

Something about Wilwa bothers me. She's reasonable enough, but she seems nervous.

[Thinlómien]

Iiiinteresting!

What the ??? at this bandwagon?!

Also anyone else notice that the second and the third voter (Lottie and Sally) voted the one that had voted before them. Weird.


ediT: xed with everyone, corrected my censored phrasing :( :D

[Galadriel55]

I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.

RL calls -


++McConnington

(That's your new official hybrid name :p)

EDIT; xed since last. Ugh, how I hate the 23rd hour! (all the crossings...)

[Nogrod]

skip - I don't agree with what he's said, and I don't like his vote, but I can understand his vote. At this point I think it's much easier to jump on him than claim that he jumped on Gil. So semi-vote candidate.Are you truly saying that "it's much easier to jump on him so I'd consider doing it"?

On a related issue - I do not think a Skip-lion would have proposed openly for the Targaryen to reveal... a lion should not be controversial but rather quire careful on the early stages when the lynches can be pretty random (D1 especially).


EDIT: X'd with a bunch...

[Galadriel55]

Also anyone else notice that the second and the third voter (Lottie and Sally) voted the one that had voted before them. Weird.

Huh, interesting find. *Files for later reference*

[Macalaure]

Start the job yourself, get the stone rolling.

*tries to get the stone rolling*

++McConnington

Yeah... :rolleyes:

[Thinlómien]

Skip is fishy, but he is always fishy (sorry! :p). Why he might be a wolf: his vote was an easy one, and combined with the fishyness, it's not a very trustworthy combination. Why he might be innocent: sudden bandwagons against someone are usually against an innocent, my experience tells me. Wolves hardly go down without an objection. Then again, not sure if that rule applies in this big a village.

Of the others that have been voted this far, I'm not very suspicious of Inzil, Gil or Mac, and Lottie isn't on the top of my list either.

Currently thinking about voting Galadriel or Wilwa. Could also go for any of the under the radar club, or even Lottie or Skip if the other options are bad.


edi: xed with #118 and onwards

[Galadriel55]

Are you truly saying that "it's much easier to jump on him so I'd consider doing it"?

No, as in I can see where thes suspicion is coming from, and I agree with a good deal of it, but I'm also wary that a lot of it seems to have been spoonfed somehow. As in, I think the points against skip are quite true, but they came seemingly out of nowhere, making you think like you've felt this way all the time. Except that I'm aware that I did not come up with all that on my own and I'm being spoonfed suspicion.

Edit: xed since last

[Rikae]

I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.

RL calls -


++McConnington

(That's your new official hybrid name :p)

EDIT; xed since last. Ugh, how I hate the 23rd hour! (all the crossings...)
Offhandedly cast suspicion at Skip voters, then make an unexplained vote for someone else?

[A Little Green]

Phew. Three pages, guys? I'm impressed. Anyway, to business, sorry for no chronology and lousy formatting, I'm in a hurry to say everything I want to say!

A couple of things on the lovers. First, to summarise, both the village and the lions want them dead (even though the bear can also be useful to both), but don't want to be the one to do it, right? Second, I agree with Eomer and whoever else in this absurdly large crowd pointed out that all the speculation on whether we, or the lions for that matter, should kill the bear or not, is slightly useless. (Oh dear that sentence is awful, anyone who can decipher what I mean by it gets cake!) How do you spot a werebear, anyway? I don't think I've ever played with a bear, and only once with lovers, and I'm a bit at a loss with both.

Lommy seems more chaotic than usual, especially in the beginning, and keeps using the verb 'bear', which might be accidental but confuses me anyway. I also agree with her that Mac is acting oddly chaotic too. I mean, take the following:
Now, obviously I don't think we should all reveal as hunters. One fake reveal might stir the pot a little, but many will eventually start to benefit the wolves.A rather ordinary line otherwise, but this came right after he himself trollingly revealed as the hunter. ???

Anyway, I have to vote now since I probably won't have time to do it later. This is of course a stab in the dark but I'll go with:

++Gil Galad

He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.As others have pointed out, this was a very easy vote, and the reasoning looks a little far-fetched. But it's also Day 1, and I seem to recall an innocent Skip being lynched for stuff like this before, so I'd prefer to go for someone else.

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.
Well, maybe. The numbers may be on your side, but it would also mean we'd be without a proper analyzable wolf kill for two Nights. That doesn't help us.Whose side is that, Mac?

PS: more house sigil avatars everybody!Does mine qualify? :Merisu:


EDIT: x-ed since Nogrod's 106. You need to slow down, people!

[Thinlómien]

a lion should not be controversial but rather quire careful on the early stages when the lynches can be pretty random (D1 especially).That's why you're staying away from the game and watching football instead? :p

[Galadriel55]

Offhandedly cast suspicion at Skip voters, then make an unexplained vote for someone else?

a) I think I've defended skip more than cast suspicion on him, and b) the vote is hardly unexplained. See my posts prior to vote.

Bye village. Good Night!

EDIT: xed again... but can't stay any longer at all.

[Thinlómien]

Skip -> Gil
Lottie -> Skip
Sally -> Lottie
Boro -> Inzil
Kit -> Skip 2
Wilwa -> Skip 3
Inzil -> Skip 4
Galadriel -> Mac

[Rikae]

Skip is fishy, but he is always fishy (sorry! :p). Why he might be a wolf: his vote was an easy one, and combined with the fishyness, it's not a very trustworthy combination. Why he might be innocent: sudden bandwagons against someone are usually against an innocent, my experience tells me. Wolves hardly go down without an objection. Then again, not sure if that rule applies in this big a village.


I was thinking the same thing, but then someone objected...

I think I've defended skip more than cast suspicion on him

I said casting suspicion on Skip voters.

That said, I see your explanation for your vote now, so never mind.

Actually, Skip voters actually worry me a bit too. I expressed my initial suspicion partly to test the waters, though I was considering voting him, it makes me uneasy when people agree with me too quickly. I mean, no one was making any accusations, and then all of a sudden several people jump on the first thing resembling a case, without any further analysis? Fishy.

I'm going to go with my gut toDay:

++Wilwa

[A Little Green]

Anyone else intrigued by this exchange between Rikae and Gal?
I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.

RL calls -

++McConnington
Offhandedly cast suspicion at Skip voters, then make an unexplained vote for someone else?
a) I think I've defended skip more than cast suspicion on him, and b) the vote is hardly unexplained. See my posts prior to vote.From what I saw, Gal is quite right on point b) (as in, the vote was not really unexplained as she had suspected Mac before), but as for the Skip business - I agree with Rikae, it looks a little off. She says she understands why Skip is suspicious, but thinks the Skip voters are suspicious too? Fair enough, but the way she phrased that in her own vote post for someone else looked a bit calculated. As in, calculated to make herself look good if Skip did end up lynched, since she'd have essentially agreed with whichever party turned out to be right.


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy and Rikae

[Nogrod]

What Greenie Reed just quoted...Well, maybe. The numbers may be on your side, but it would also mean we'd be without a proper analyzable wolf kill for two Nights. That doesn't help us.That is an interesting phrasing indeed! Especially when the ex-Lannister Skip has been talking about the numbers being good for the village...

[Macalaure]

Whose side is that, Mac?
Yikes, that was poorly worded by me. :rolleyes: :D


While I'm not feeling particularly well about Skip myself, I do not like that bandwaggon at all.

Of my "top suspects" only Inzil has gotten a vote, but I don't feel remotely confident enough about him either to try and get a bandwaggon for him on the rails. Voting for Kitanna or Boro would seem like a throwaway at this point, too, not that I feel strongly about them either.

I do not know who to vote for. :(

[Encaitare]

Well, we are coming close to the deadline and I'm ready to vote.

++Nogrod

Because he is acting very suspicious of Galadriel, and while I agree that she has been rather, um, aggressive, I don't think that would be a good lion strategy. It could be that Nogrod is latching on to that and trying to draw attention toward her. Meanwhile, he has been very quiet, maybe to keep attention away from himself. (Surely one can post on the internet and watch the World Cup at the same time. ;) )

Edit: cross-posted from Rikae's post #128.

[Eönwë]

Wow, I almost completely missed the Day! :o

And there really isn't much time, but I've just about caught up.

Some thoughts first:

I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?).
I disagree. I can definitely imagine someone desperately clinging onto life outing themselves as the Targaryen. For anyone it could guarantee another Day (or Night), which could be especially vital in late-game, and a Lion may hope to out the real Targaryen that way too, which would give them a known innocent and sow confusion for the rest of the Day. And who knows what a Lover could have in mind? (Imagine a Lover and Lion are both leading in votes and then reveal as Targaryen. What then when they're both alive the next day?) Admittedly, it is certainly a move of desperation, but I don't think it's impossible that we'll get plenty of reveals that Day.

Which is why I also think that this isn't particularly true:
I can see reasons for pretty much anyone to reveal as Targaryen, if they're willing to take the risk. A Targaryen who survives a kill attempt is a known innocent, but someone who simply reveals as one will not be, as far as I'm concerned. Fake revealing as an 'unflipped' Targaryen would work better as a long-term strategy (could get a few Days out of it), but as an act of desperation, a 'flipped' one is also possible.

But enough talk of Dragons, that really is something we have to wait and see. And I don't think I'll have enough time toDay to address the earlier Lover/Bear discussion properly.

At the moment, the thing that stands out most to me is Skip's encouragement of a Targ reveal, so:

++ Skip Spence

And since I wouldn't expect a fellow lion to start a concrete vote against one when the feeling was already against one, if he is one, I suppose this'll make Lottie look innocent.

Mac, Rikae, Lommy and Gil have all said things that I'm not particularly keen on (but this post has taken longer than expected and I really need to go now) so I think I'll need to give them a closer look if I'm still alive toMorrow. And G55 does not seem her normal self, but I'm not sure what to make of it. Inzil also seems under the radar, but I can't tell whether this just a lack of posts or his very invisible early lionish self.

edit: x-ed with everything since Lommy's #105.

[Volo]

skip seemed a bit baffled, but not in a guilty way.

Eomer felt confused in a detached manner that did feel guilty. It's such a long time since we played last that I don't really remember if I had similar vibes in earlier situation. (btw. Nice to have so many old timers playing together!)

g55 seems highly agitated. She is very forward and makes her preferences heard. Is that typical of her? She singled out a couple of players (wilwa and wyth, I recall) as whom she has a positive sense for. It didn't not feel entirely genuine.

Inzil seemed to have a friendly manner, but I don't recall him taking a stance on the to bear or not to bear issue.

I agree that at first smelling there's a nasty odor to the skipvotes.

Ouch, Mac's phrasing!

[Lote22]

This is Wyth posting, as I'm once again having account issues *mutter*

Uh-oh, Wyth had better watch out then, too! :p

Just because I am covered in dark hair, as well as an indiscriminate lover, that does NOT make me one of THE lovers or a bear!

Haha I think that was me! :D

As I remember, I was on the verge of being lynched near dead-line, and the Village was losing handsomely, so I hoped that that fake reveal would save me (it did) and that we would get a wolf instead of me (we didn't). Then I was lynched the next day for being slippery and the village lost. :(

Though I respect your honesty about past dishonesty, it does make me suspicious.


[B]WythDryden - should be on invisible mode, otherwise fine

I definitely DID have invisible mode on, but, alas, I can never seem to get an easy break with trying to function on this forum it seems.

I was initially going to vote on Skip just because he seemed to stand out. But again, my ideas about it were swayed with how bringing this much attention to himself would not be good strategy. Or would double psychology here be a good defense? Either way, I'm not so sure. This might make my strategy a bit weak, but I'm still figuring things out around here. And lots of names are hard to keep up with. So now I'm admittedly shooting a bit in the dark, but Mac and G55 seem to be standing out to me. Ultimately, I may not be able to post again with my luck on here, so I'll just go with:

++Mac

Edit: I'm still squinty-eyed about Nog too though.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

We got a bandwagon, baybay!

But given how many WW games there have been (this must be the 8 millionth or something, right) I have to think that the villains won't have voted for Skip like that. It just looks too bad. They would be smarter than that... I think.

[A Little Green]

Lommy - more flambuoyant than I remember, but no feeling either way.Agreeing with Gal on this point. She seems a bit.. frivolous? I mean, she makes me giggle a lot, but she's twitchier than usual which makes me nervous.

I won't make a proper list right now, but so far I'm worried about Lommy and Mac, and a little about Gal. Feeling relatively OK about Rikae and Volo.

Yikes, that was poorly worded by me. :rolleyes::DCare to explain what you meant, then?


EDIT: x-ed since Encai's vote

[Macalaure]

I have to dash, so here's my vote real quick now.

++Inziladun

Don't lynch me, ok. :)

[Nogrod]

G55 and Mac probably aren't both lions (see G55's vote on Mac - unnecessary on D1 especially as Mac had been suspected by a couple of people already). But one of then could very well be (I'd rather vote G55).

Then there is the Skip-wagon... namely Kitanna, Wilwa and Inzil.

If Skip is innocent - and especially if at least one lion already had a vote at that time, I'd say it is quite probable even there is at least one lion - if not two there. Sadly the inference has two "if's" in it.

I'd see our best choices toDay somewhere along those lines. Any ideas?


EDIT: Oops the number of posts X'd!

[Gil-Galad]

Deadline is coming up and I am posting this on a dying phone. As with every game, I have my hunches on who I think is someone special. Given that it is day 1, there is nothing substantial to back up any of the early votes.

I feel that Skips poor choice of words when accusing me did lead to the bandwagon against him. I know the feeling, I have done it countless times. That being said, I could do the easy vote or go with one of my hunches. And being incapable to quote and out of a time to post this, I will have to support my hunch as best as I can on the next day, if I survive till then.

++Boro

Something always points me to him, and I feel every game I end up voting for you.

5% battery left, will check when i start work.

[A Little Green]

Does anyone have the tally?

[Thinlómien]

Skip -> Gil
Lottie -> Skip
Sally -> Lottie
Boro -> Inzil
Kit -> Skip 2
Wilwa -> Skip 3
Inzil -> Skip 4
Galadriel -> Mac
Rikae -> Wilwa
Encai -> Nogrod
Eönwë -> Skip 5
Wyth -> Mac 2
Mac -> Inzil 2
Gil -> Boro

edit: xed and fixed

[Volo]

wilwa's vote I don't like a bit! She's clearly been paying attention, writing as much as she did. The vote came too easily, given it was already the third, keeping skip in the lead.

A lot going on!

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Eomer - picks and pokes, but looks ok.

I'm trying to pick a fight with you, and you leave it on a compliment? Booooo! Lynch her! :p

[wilwarin538]

Yay for super short meeting! Should be able to still comment here and there until the end of the Day.

Why he might be innocent: sudden bandwagons against someone are usually against an innocent, my experience tells me. Wolves hardly go down without an objection. Then again, not sure if that rule applies in this big a village.


Day 1 is almost always a bandwaggon from what I recall, and judging by the large number of us with "Fenris" in our sig it is very possible to have a successful lynch Day 1.

And with Mac's comment, did he perhaps just mean that the numbers were on Skip's side in the sense that they supported the argument he was making? Weird wording, but might not be anything. Need to go back and find that post.

x'ed with a bunch...

[A Little Green]

Thanks love! And how many of us left to vote? Seven? Minus Nerwen, who likely won't vote anyway. :rolleyes:

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy's tally post, which obviously is the one I'm referring to.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Do we have 20 minutes left, by the way?

[Thinlómien]

++Wilwa

One of my top suspects atm, and as such a better option than other current options.

[Volo]

Eomer, yup!

Ok, wilwa's return somewhat lessens my suspicion...

[Nogrod]

And with Mac's comment, did he perhaps just mean that the numbers were on Skip's side in the sense that they supported the argument he was making? Weird wording, but might not be anything. Need to go back and find that post.Does anyone think this is a bit far-fetched defence? Mac clearly said the numbers "maybe" were on Skip's side but...

Lovers? Would be a Bear and a Maiden Fair indeed... :)

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Thanks Volo.

I'm weirdly drawn to Lommy's posts so far (which means that hell has perhaps frozen over in the last few hours) and I'm leaning toward lynching Wilwa rather than Skip. I noticed Wilwa posted an awful lot earlier in the day which sort of alerted me (she had 13 posts at one stage whereas 2nd place had 8). Very slightly suspicious of her; not suspicious of Skip and think he's more of a wrong-place-wrong-time kind of villager/guest.

Very curious about Skip's bandwagon.

Wonder how many votes still to come.

[A Little Green]

I'm torn right now, I'd prefer Lommy or Gal over Mac because I'd like to hear from him first, but he already has votes and the two ladies don't. Sigh. Also, five minutes without new posts? Seriously? (In a normal game, I couldn't imagine making this complaint on Day 1! :D)


EDIT: x-ed with Nog and Eomer

[Nogrod]

EDITED & COrrected:
15 votes given (6 left), I count.

Skip 5
Wilwa, Mac & Inzil 2
Boro, Lottie, Gil & Nog 1

Right?

[A Little Green]

I, too, would prefer Wilwa over Skip, but Mac over Wilwa.

[A Little Green]

14 votes given (7 left), I count.

Skip 5
Wilwa, Mac & Inzil 2
Boro, Lottie & Gil 1

Right?15 given, I think.

[wilwarin538]

Does anyone think this is a bit far-fetched defence? Mac clearly said the numbers "maybe" were on Skip's side but...

Lovers? Would be a Bear and a Maiden Fair indeed... :)

I hadn't read skip's original post when I made the above comment, I didn't know the context. Just found it and from reading it I honestly have no clue what Mac was trying to say. I've re-read it like 10 times and it doesn't really make sense. Wish he had provided more clarification for it.

And thanks for the compliment Noggins ;)

x'ed since quoted post

[Nogrod]

My preference would be

1. G55
2. Mac or Wilwa

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I suspect Skip is probably innocent. Slightly suspcious of Wilwa and Inzil for their votes, but only slightly. It would be risky of them to draw attention to themselves by voting for Skip, although they could, I am sure, use that to their advantage in defending their votes.

Off to quickly look at the more 'random' votes.

[A Little Green]

Gah. Not leaving it to the last minute. Too unsure about Wilwa and unwilling to do a complete throwaway so -

++ Mac


EDIT: x-ed with Nog and Eomer

[A Little Green]

Five minutes, guys!

[Nogrod]

Okay.

So Mac is one of the lovers and tries to play suspicious enough for the lions not to kill him during the Night?

That might also explain the odd "on your side" as he's basically on no-one's side (were he a lion he would have been more aware of the "opposite sides" and realized his wording's problematicness)

++ Mac


EDIT: X'd with Greenie x 2

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

The Mac-voters, G55 and Wyth, are also very curious...

But now wondering if all lions decided to not vote on Day 1. That would be dastardly and Lannisterish in the extreme!

[Volo]

wilwa is quite relaxed given she's in danger of being lynched. A Wolf would be more concerned.

Noggie, I'll play along...
++g55

[Nogrod]

Skip 5
Mac 4
Wilwa 2
Inzil 2

[Volo]

Referring to my previous post. Or if wilwa were a wolf, she still had pack mates to defend her...

*cough* I'm about to drown on a bottle of water... :S What is dead may never... no never mind.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Gah, I don't know and I don't trust any of you. I ought to string you all up!

++INZILADUN

Because I know he'd be smart enough to deflect any complaints about bandwagon-jumping.

[Aganzir]

Deadline. Stop posting.

Skip spence is lynched. He was an ordo. No country for ex-Lannisters.

Narration will follow.

[Aganzir]

Skip shuffled towards the locked door.

“Now, can we all just calm down a little?” He stammered nervously.

“Lannister sympathiser!”

“Freak!”

“Killer!”

“He must be a lion.”

“I guess not …” skip muttered, back pressed against the unyielding wood. His eyes darted round, trying to find a friendly face, but saw only hatred, fear and, in a few eyes, relieved glee.

“See, you've got to understand,” explained Eönwë, “it's mighty fishy that a self-proclaimed ex-Lannister wants to get his hands on a Targaryen!”

“What reason would anybody but a bitter dwarf have to kill our dwarf hostesses?” asked Lottie poignantly.

“How do we know he isn't still in touch with his family?” said Kitanna.

“We don't. It would be just like the Lannisters to send an undercover agent like that,” observed Inzil.

“Calm down, friends,” some of the other patrons tried to say, but in vain.”

“Let's kill the traitor and be done with it,” wilwa exclaimed and lifted the huge axe that was still leaning against the bar.

Not wasting another second, she hefted the axe in both hands and raised it above her head. With a loud grunt she let it fall.

Bones crunched and splintered, blood spurted all over the front row of eager patrons and skip’s lifeless body slumped but did not fall, still pinned to the door by the lethal weapon. They watched, waiting, breaths held.

But nothing happened. Skip was bloodied and most definitely dead – but despite his Lannister leanings he was neither a lion nor a bear.

Slowly, the rest of the customers backed away from each other.

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Kitanna - illiterate peasant
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
wilwarin538 - house Mormont
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
Nerwen - house Martell
Galadriel55 - wildling
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Macalaure - house Connington
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit
Nogrod - house Swann
Colin "Volo" Mute - house (Euron) Greyjoy
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

Creatures of the Night, do your thing.

[Aganzir]

Wilwarin startled awake from a bad dream. There was a faint glow on the eastern sky, but around her everything was still dark. For a moment she lay still, blinking and wondering what had awoken her. Then slowly, as if against her will, she turned her head, and her gaze focused on something huge that sat in the shadows, a deeper patch of black against the dark room. The something shifted.

“I have a problem with you, Mormont,” he said in a deep, rumbling voice. “Your existence. The fact that you're living and breathing, to be precise.”

“Please,” wilwa started, but the bear continued:

“There is only room for one bear in this Inn, and you are the one too many.”

“Oh, Bear, please don't kill me! I have so much more to give!” wilwa begged. This was not at all how she had imagined the traditional song about the bear; the song that she had known since her childhood on Bear Island in the North.

The bear paused, as if to consider. “Now that you mention it, Mormont, I suppose I could find some use for you...” He took a step closer. Wilwa sat up in her bed, feeling unprotected. “You could give me a late supper,” the bear said. He drew back his giant paw and swatted wilwa on the face almost absent-mindedly. But so strong was the blow that it broke her neck, and her head lolled from side to side when the bear sank his muzzle into the flesh in her stomach.

**

The night wore on. The sun was already creeping up the sky when the Lannister were-lions figured they had lazed long enough in the warmth of the kitchen that still smelled faintly yet pleasantly of the blood of the dwarfs.

“Is it about time we murdered someone?” one of them asked, a lioness with soft fur almost as white as silver. (For, as you know, a male lion is not much of a hunter.)

“Do we really have to?” another one asked, yawning. She was sleek and golden.

“To defend the honour of our house, yes,” the third one – a muscular, auburn lioness said.

“What honour?” asked the golden lioness and got to her feet, stretching.

“Who do you reckon is the biggest threat to the Lannister triumph?” asked the first lion, ignoring the remark.

“The wildling,” said the auburn lion without missing a beat.

“The wildling?” echoed the golden lion. “The wildling when we have relatives and bannermen of important noble houses?”

“The wildling,” repeated the auburn lion.

“Whatever you say,” said the silver lion getting up.

After reaching this lazy consensus, the lions stalked upstairs with feline grace and were soon by Galadriel55's bedside. Her tangled hair lay on the pillow and she breathed peacefully.

“What should we do with her?” purred the golden lion.

“There's no time for games,” said the silver lion wrily. Indeed, the room wasn't quite dark any more.

Without further ado, the auburn lion jumped nimbly on Galadriel's bed, and she had barely time to wake up and gasp when long yellow teeth sunk into her neck and shook her rapidly until she moved no more.

The were-lions padded softly back to their beds.

**

As the patrons woke up, they found Galadriel's still warm body in the shared room she had slept in. It was unchanged.

When they went down to the second floor, it wasn't difficult to tell in which room the carnage had taken place. The floor was covered in blood all the way to the corridor, and intestines were spread around the room. What remained of wilwa lay on the bed, eyes blank and staring into nothing – the third one in the middle of her forehead as still and lifeless as the other two.

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - pranced on by lions on Night 2

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Kitanna - illiterate peasant
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
Nerwen - house Martell
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Macalaure - house Connington
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit
Nogrod - house Swann
Colin "Volo" Mute - house (Euron) Greyjoy
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

It is now Day 2. Comment is free.

[Inziladun]

Give me a break! Seer gone, not even at the hands of the Lions. And we know her vote was an Ordo.

And what did G55 do to get the Lions' attention? I think that's the only useful info from the Nightly activity.

[Kitanna]

Well....fudge...

I've been slowly going through the posts from yesterday (I'm on the top of page 3 only). And if I had to make a guess as to why the bear got Wilwa based solely on what I've read so far 1) the lovers thought she was a lion trying to steer the conversation toward them rather than toward the lions. She is the one who started the lover and hunter talk. This only works if the lovers are indeed trying to kill the lions rather than villagers. Also turns out right now I have no #2 theory. Not yet anyway.

Long post to follow soon on my notes from the first few pages. Then more long posts to eventually follow about the last few pages.

[Inziladun]

And if I had to make a guess as to why the bear got Wilwa based solely on what I've read so far 1) the lovers thought she was a lion trying to steer the conversation toward them rather than toward the lions. She is the one who started the lover and hunter talk. This only works if the lovers are indeed trying to kill the lions rather than villagers. Also turns out right now I have no #2 theory. Not yet anyway.

Could be, I guess. But weren't a lot of people talking about the Lovers?

[Kitanna]

Could be, I guess. But weren't a lot of people talking about the Lovers?

Yes, but she started it. It's not a great theory, but it's all I currently have.

[Volo]

I'm inclined to agree that rather than trying to kill the Seer, it's more likely the Bear tried to kill a Lion. Which could make the Bear someone who genuinely suspected wilwa during the Day.

G55's strong phrasings might give us a clue. I'll go check that one too.

[Macalaure]

Seer down in Night 2? Wow. :(

Well, at least we have something to work with, I guess. Lots to analyze toDay:
Who might Wilwa have dreamt of?
Did anything she say give us a lead towards the lovers?
What leads can we take from Galadriel's death?
What can we learn from the ever so slightly messed up voting yesterDay?
(in no particular order)

I'll get working on that, but let me get that "your side" thing out of the way first. No idea why I wrote "your" instead of "our", to be honest. I tried to track it back, and the best I can think of is that I was referring to Skip's "WW is a game of numbers and the way I see things, the numbers favour a quick reveal.", which I didn't quote, but which came from the same post that I did quote. So I guess I must've been thinking about "his" numbers-comment when I wrote "your" numbers instead of "our".

When I voted and left yesterDay, I thought my "don't lynch me" comment might've been a bit over the top... but you guys almost did kill me! :eek: Not cool.

[Volo]

I skimmed through wilwa's posts. If she left a Seer clue, I couldn't find it. Keep looking though, just because nobody found it yet, doesn't mean there isn't one.

[Rikae]

I wish I hadn't pointed out that Wilwa seemed nervous, but it seemed like a evil sort of nervousness to me. Of course, the bear may have been content to get either a gifted or a lion. Or did she say something that made her one dream somehow apparent? She certainly focused on the bear a lot, seemed to be trying to decide whether it should be killed early or not, but I don't see anything that seems to clearly be hinting at the identity of her dream. Could have been bear or lover, in this scenario.

The only instance I can think of where we would be purposefully choosing to lynch one over the other is if the Seer reveals the Bear and a Lion (wouldn't that be something?!) and we have to decide who to lynch first (I would say Bear, because getting rid of the two night kills is worth getting stuck with a cobbler).

Here's her list:
Skip: I really don't like his suggestion about the hunter revealing. Having a known innocent isn't all that useful right now, at least not compared to how it could be in a few more days. Also not a fan of his vote, but really Day 1 votes kinda always suck.

Lottie: her list is very non-confrontational (best word I can think of to describe it) appears helpful but really nothing majorly negative about anyone. But, she's doing this from work as I am, and probably doesn't have the freedom that I do to contribute more substance.

Gil-Galad: talking way more than I ever remember him talking in WW, but to be fair I probably am too. I have agreed with a lot of what he's said, so I don't know, iffy here.

Mac: seems very nervous about the potential of having a cobbler, don't really get that, frankly they aren't that huge of a threat, certainly not compared to an extra night kill.

Lommy: seems to think this game is "too easy", which I don't really see right now, likely losing 2 people a night and therefore increasing our chances of losing gifteds and our numbers dwindling quickly, is not what I would call easy. And that was in stark contrast to what she previously said about our bad odds.

I feel pretty good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Everyone else I am neutral about at the moment.
If anything there is a bear hint, I'd say the comment on Mac (he's nervous about a cobbler because he doesn't want to kill a bear/lover). Mac's response does seem a little, I don't know, fabricated? Kind of a "back off from this or I'll call you suspicious!"?
Not concerned about the cobbler itself, but I've got the feeling that some people have been trying to exaggerate the bear-threat to the point of prioritizing him over the wolves. Of course those people like to downplay the influence of a cobbler. In connection, I find this suspicious.

On the other hand I kind of doubt he'd go out on a limb like that to counter the very suggestion of lynching the bear/lover if he was one. It seems like a big risk to take when we're only talking hypothetically anyway.

This exchange would also be pretty bold:

Originally Posted by Wilwa
Uhm, mine is a bear...I think I'll pass
Originally Posted by Macalaure
What's wrong with bears? :D

Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

On another note, I wanted to answer Eönwë's post from yesterDay:
Fake revealing as an 'unflipped' Targaryen would work better as a long-term strategy (could get a few Days out of it), but as an act of desperation, a 'flipped' one is also possible.


It's my understanding that when a Targ is "flipped" by an attempted kill, the narration will indicate it. It doesn't get any clearer than that.

Edit: X'd with... everyone.

[Volo]

G55's list (http://forum.barrowdowns.com/showpost.php?p=692270&postcount=107) suggests that she could have been interpreted to dream of wilwa being Innocent - which doesn't help us much. G55 emphasizes wilwa unlike any other.
I guess she could have been suspected of dreaming of a guilty Mac, but doesn't seem that way to me. Could be the Lions were nervous of her being correct though...

[Macalaure]

Wilwa

In #91, she lists Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, and Nerwen as people she feels good about, no reasons given. If she has dreamt about an innocent, most likely it is one of these four. She raises some points about other people, but in the end states that they're all neutral. Then in #110 she votes known ordo Skip, without mentioning any second choices. If she did dream about anyone guilty, she's hiding it completely. I doubt it, though.

If the bear killed her actually thinking Wilwa was the seer, then he noticed something I didn't. Wilwa did keep the focus on the lovers-discussion for a long time. Maybe they thought if they could get rid of a person who talks a lot about their role, the general discussion would end up focusing more on the lions instead of them. If the lovers were safe yesterDay, that would be a sensible, low-key course of action.

On to Galadriel, in a little while.

[Nogrod]

Just a few principles I think should be thought about to begin with...

Wolves need the seer and they seldom are in a position they can easily let that thought pass their considerations (it is possible, sure, but quite improbable). So as a working hypothesis I'd say the lions were after someone they had even the faintest reasons to think was the seer.

I'd search anything that could look seerish from G55 on D1.

The lovers would probably go first for the wolves - but if they had an idea that the seer was up to one of them, they'd probably hold that as a more immediate threat.
I see some people have already picked up from D1 that Wilwa seemed very interested about the bear so it could be a possibility...

I'd search anything on Wilwa for both things that could point her being a lion or a seer.

Okay. Second half of the football match to go, but I'll be back then for a moment...


EDIT: X'd with Mac

[Kitanna]

So, our hosts were killed by a lion and a bear? Now all we need are tigers.
Oh my. I’m sad I missed this post yesterday just for the sheer hilarity of it.
So with the bear and the maiden basically what we want is for the bear to lose his killing power, and there's a few ways for that to happen; either he is killed or his maiden dies. So really either of them dying would be good and would get rid of the double night kill. But, the interesting thing is that we don't want to be the ones to kill one of them first, cause that would create a cobbler. So we basically have to hope that the wolves kill one of them so that the other will just be an ord. Kind of interesting that we want to avoid lynching the bear, very weird!
So this post seemed to start the lover conversation that dominated the D1. That same post also started the hunter talk.
Now with the coin toss the better result depends on where we are in the game. If it tosses that they survive an extra day that could be very useful closer to the end of the game when we need as many goodies as possible, where them dying and possibly taking down another innocent could be very detrimental,so it's better to just have them around (and I would assume we would know their role and be told it's their last day alive? so we'd also have a known innocent if that's the case). However, earlier in the game we would want them to get to use their power and hopefully take down a baddie, and if they accidentally take down an innocent we are still early enough in the game where our numbers are big enough to be able to not feel it as much as we would later.
Which Mac suggested Wilwa was steering the conversation away from trying to find lions by bringing up these roles. However, and I know others said the same, that the role of the lions never changed, so talking about the changed hunter role and the lovers was a good way to get D1 conversations flowing.
Then again, Wilwa is one main reason nearly all we do is talk about lovers instead about wolves, which I don't like.
And both of them want to stay alive, naturally. What's always difficult about a Lover pair is that they can choose which side they want to support, and could change their minds in an instant depending on circumstance. However, the death of one takes away that choice from the survivor. Very interesting indeed.
Zil takes the conversation further by stating the lovers can chose what side to support. In all honesty this had never even crossed my mind. I just viewed the lovers as powerful cobblers (with no specific alliance like a real cobbler) who did what was in their best interest, not necessarily depending on lions or village. Which was a bit naïve of me seeing that the lovers would have to side with someone eventually, even if it was brief, to keep themselves alive.
That's true. However, if push comes to shove, I'd trade the extra kill for a cobbler.
&
They become a known innocent. Well, as known as a revealed gifted with no proof can get. Could be helpful under the right circumstances, could be not. At any rate, I think it's for the hunter to decide if revealing at any given moment will pay off rather than keep their ability.
&
The survival ability also gives us the known innocent for an extra day without having a reveal. This is always useful, but especially so towards the end of the game. A live and known innocent! And we would know more from the wolves (bears?) motives without actually having that person killed. Like a Ranger save, except that the Ranger does not have to reveal. I must say, I rather like this option. The other side of the coin is your regular illogical hunter, as I understand.
Galadriel makes some good points in her last part about the hunter’s altered role being like a ranger save. Nice and helpful. I don't see much there to indicate why she was a target. Maybe too helpful in the lionesses' eyes?
Wilwa of House Mormont gives good advice concerning lovers and hunter. I agree. Galadriel the wildling adds some sense, too, but Inzil of House Tully's comments on Wilwa's points seem more looking-to-be-helpful rather than actually helpful to me. Then again, Encai finds him helpful, so maybe I'm too eager to find something suspicious in what little has been posted so far.

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?
Seeing as the bear kills at night I am in favor of discussing the role and weighing our possibilities of survival with bear and lions on the loose. I said D1 that I wouldn’t actively be searching for bear hints, but I think it’s important to talk about it. If for no other reason than it did get the conversation flowing, otherwise we’d have spent D1 twindling our thumbs and bantering.
In conclusion, we should focus on finding the wolves, but personally I'm not too saddened if the bear and/or his lover become casualties in our wolf hunt. No offense, but I will feel safer without a bear roaming in the Night, even if the bear is trying to kill wolves, because I don't trust anybody's judgement more than the collective judgement of the village. (And honestly I don't see the cobbler as a big problem.)
I agree with Lommy, which means she’s probably evil given my recent track record of trusting the wrong people.

So the following posts didn't really grab my attention until I read them back to back
"I believe the matter at hand is clear enough. Were-Lannisters have killed our innkeeps, and there is little reason to believe they won't strike again the coming night. Since obviously we can't just leave this cursed place, we need to find who in our midst is secretly the worst among the Usurper's ilk." He looked around the common room in mistrust, then glanced again at his gloved hand. "And we don't have much time to do so! This place is suspiciously quiet and void of a sense of urgency!"
Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?
What? Are you joking? This is such a classic wolf post I'm almost willing to give you the benefit of doubt, but not really.

Jumping on someone else's point to create suspicion against a group of people? Check. Throwing around vague suspicion that can't bear close inspection? Check.

Of course people are talking about the bear and the modified hunter this early on. It's always the exceptional rules that start the discussion on Day1 (it was the same last game, for example).

But ironically, your post has started the actual wolf suspicions (both by you suspecting the earlier posters and by me now suspecting you) so maybe I shouldn't complain.
I know I quote Nerwen’s twice, but I wanted it included in this string. I find this exchange interesting because Mac starts out mostly IC, but making a point that the talk is more about bears and hunters than lions, which should be our number one concern. Not unreasonable given we win the game when the lions are all dead.
Then Nerwen jumps on this with “yes, this is sense, look sense.” Which comes off as being overly helpful toward another player.
Then Lommy jumps in saying Nerwen is using a classic wolf tactic, while doing so herself. By jumping on Nerwen’s acceptance of Mac’s post and for throwing around vague suspicions. In this little chain I would say Nerwen and Lommy both look suspicious.
Lommy and Nerwen continued back and forth about the hunter after that. Mostly it revolved around the hunter revealing or what happened in the event the hunter was attacked. Mac jumped in with
1. He gets lynched - He will either take somebody down with him, or survive the lynching and live another day. What if wolves/bear target him during the Night, though?
2. He gets killed at Night - Again, the hunter will either take someone down as well, or there is no kill that Night (or one kill less) and he gets to survive through the coming day. In the latter case, will the village be told his identity?
3. He chooses to reveal - I highly doubt the mods will step in and confirm the reveal. Takes away the fun of fake reveals. Demonstration?

I'm the Targaryen!

He looks around the inn, twenty irritated faces staring back at him.

See, nothing is happening. We're south of the Wall, the dwarves aren't going to walk among us coldly again for no good reason. (Clarification on points 1 and 2 would be useful, though. )

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take care of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.
I’m pretty sure his fake reveal means he’s guilty and trying to distract us or he’s a crazy ordo. Though, I’m not all that familiar with GoT, but I’m pretty sure the Targaryen’s were crazy due to inbreeding. So maybe he is the Targaryen or maybe another kid of Jamie and Cersei ;) (I’m not really suggesting this last bit)
We could use this time to forge an alliance with the Lovers.
Early in the game it makes sense not to pressure the Lovers.
It also makes sense for the Lovers to try and hunt down Lannisters,
since Lannisters are the greatest danger to the Lovers at this moment.
If the advantage shifts to the Lannisters in a couple of Days,
we might want to reconsider (meaning making personal notes on Lover suspicion).
I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with.
Part of what Volo says makes sense, but some does not. I agree that the lions are the biggest threat to the lovers (unless of course one fell under heavy suspicion) so they would want to hunt lions. But forging an alliance? How? The bear is likely to kill an innocent during the night. And friendly neighborhood assassin? Pretty crappy assassin that doesn’t even know his/her mark.
Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.
In a perfect game the two sides would just destroy each other. Too bad WW is generally messy.
It is the beginning of the game, and if we focus on removing the Bear and succeed in that, we simply remove another threat from the Lions. Sure, the Lions and Bear might work together to take out us innocents, but I find that unlikely since:

A: They don't know who each other are, so as much as they want to be buddies, they could end up killing each other off.

B: They are a bigger threat to each other this early in the game, since this is the first day and battle lines haven't been drawn yet.

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

It is a double-edged sword, but by removing the Bear as a threat to the villagers we help the Lions. The greatest strength the villagers have is numbers, we can take a few blows for the greater good (the greater good) while we get a lay of the land. This is the nature of the game, and we cannot fight it.

So if the Bear is reading this, I don't want you to be afraid but know that though it is (currently) 1/21 chance to be lynched, it would be a 1/18 chance for a Lion to get you. This whole talk of "getting the bear first" plays right into the Lion's hands, who just want another threat to them removed off the board in the guise of saving the innocents.

Our key enemy here is the Lions, and the rules of the game dictate we must die for the greater good (the greater good), which I wholeheartedly accept and understand.
I think this is a very sensible breakdown. I think we can all agree no one wants the double kills at night, but at the same time the lovers could be an asset if they are hunting the lions too.
The problem with this of course is the lovers don’t know who the lions are and keeping them alive could end this game very quickly. But also the lions probably want the lovers alive for extra kills. I’m waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?
If the lions know who the bear and/or maiden is then they'll likely only become concerned if the bear becomes a clear threat by killing off Lions. However, the wiser move would be as I said, to use us as their weapons to get one of the lovers lynched, that way the other becomes a cobbler for them. And again in this inn with this many different allegiances it can be easier for the Lions to keep their paws clean.

This is me reading the posts in order because I missed a lot of D1. I'll be back with pages 3-5 later.

[WythDryden]

I'm inclined to agree that rather than trying to kill the Seer, it's more likely the Bear tried to kill a Lion. Which could make the Bear someone who genuinely suspected wilwa during the Day.

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. The numbers do favor the village right now, so the lovers would have an easier time winning the traditional way and the bear is one of the ways the wolves get killed. Though it is hard to say, it is definitely possible, though improbable, that wilwa dreamed who the bear was, and they got nervous by the added attention she was bringing to them. I am leaning towards the former solely based on the numbers, but there is definitely a connection that shouldn't be overlooked.

Edit: X'd Mac, Nog, Kit

[Rikae]

If the bear killed her actually thinking Wilwa was the seer, then he noticed something I didn't. Wilwa did keep the focus on the lovers-discussion for a long time. Maybe they thought if they could get rid of a person who talks a lot about their role, the general discussion would end up focusing more on the lions instead of them. If the lovers were safe yesterDay, that would be a sensible, low-key course of action.



Ah yes, you seemed quite worried about the direction the conversation was talking yesterDay. It seemed, and seems, a bit far fetched to me - simply discussing the lovers' role in the game on Day 1 without any clue who they, or the wolves, might be doesn't put them in any particular danger, nor does it protect the wolves.

But if you think it's serious business, maybe the bear did indeed...

[Inziladun]

I'll get working on that, but let me get that "your side" thing out of the way first. No idea why I wrote "your" instead of "our", to be honest. I tried to track it back, and the best I can think of is that I was referring to Skip's "WW is a game of numbers and the way I see things, the numbers favour a quick reveal.", which I didn't quote, but which came from the same post that I did quote. So I guess I must've been thinking about "his" numbers-comment when I wrote "your" numbers instead of "our".

You're lucky I missed that, as I could certainly have thought it voteworthy.

Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

Would they really have wanted to get the Hunter already, though? In that scenario, Mac might look better because she voted for him, and it would at least have been a good possibility he would have been her choice to take with her. I still have doubts about it.

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. The numbers do favor the village right now, so the lovers would have an easier time winning the traditional way and the bear is one of the ways the wolves get killed. Though it is hard to say, it is definitely possible, though improbable, that wilwa dreamed who the bear was, and they got nervous by the added attention she was bringing to them. I am leaning towards the former solely based on the numbers, but there is definitely a connection that shouldn't be overlooked.


Well, I guess that's as good a theory as any. After all, there must have been something to catch the Bear's attention.

x/d with Rikae

[Encaitare]

The Seer, already? :eek: Yeesh.

I think there are two possibilities here. Either the Lovers didn't like how much Wilwa was focusing the conversation on them, or they thought they were going after a lion. I'm leaning toward the second option, because the first one seems kind of obvious. And I joked before that love makes you stupid, but going after someone who is drawing attention to you, even without making accusations, is not the subtlest of strategies.

In short, I doubt they picked up anything Seer-ish from her comments. The fact that the Bear killed the Seer was likely a happy accident for them -- and an unhappy one for us.

Wilwa In #91, she lists Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, and Nerwen as people she feels good about, no reasons given. If she has dreamt about an innocent, most likely it is one of these four.

Mac makes a good point here. Statistically, it's more likely that Wilwa dreamed of an innocent, and quietly placing one of their names in a list is a good way to imply their innocence without being too obvious.

[Kitanna]

Zil: His tone is a little formal in the way it gets sometimes when he's evil.
Lommy: Has been logical and helpful, and seems genuine enough about it.
Wilwa: Has been focusing a lot of the attention on the hunter and bear, but since that is the only topic of conversation that's really stuck so far, I can't exactly fault her for that. Yes, the hunter and the bear aren't our priority - but it's better to have people talking and leaving tracks behind than sitting quietly, all agreeing that the wolves are our priorities. Wilwa looks pretty good in my eyes.
Galadriel: Her tone strikes me as a teeny bit too cautious, too thought-out. I'll keep an eye on her, but I wouldn't vote her yet.
WythDryden: Welcome to Werewolf!
Rikae: Has been very reasonable and logical. Her tone seems pretty calm, not too cautious, which either means she's not a wolf or that none of her packmates have attracted attention yet.
Mac: Strikes me as being fairly genuine in his tone. Seems to me to be more innocent than not so far
Gil: Nothing he's said has really caught my eye as being suspicious.
skip: I don't like his vote. Like Rikae said, it's a easy vote, and looks more like a wolf trying for an easy Day 1 lynch than an innocent with a genuine suspicion.
Pretty non-commital with the exception of Skip who she voted for. Making it the first vote for him.
The thing is, even if people think we should be "going after" the Bear more than the Lions, or vice versa, saying that is one thing, doing it is another. How exactly are we supposed to go after one over the other? Especially this early in the game, when for the most part we are shooting blind with regards to both. The only instance I can think of where we would be purposefully choosing to lynch one over the other is if the Seer reveals the Bear and a Lion (wouldn't that be something?!) and we have to decide who to lynch first (I would say Bear, because getting rid of the two night kills is worth getting stuck with a cobbler).

So anyway, deciding whether we should be targeting one over the other isn't really all that productive to me. The methods of discovering either will be fairly similar I think (kill the bad guys!), and lynching the Bear would not be terrible to the point where we should be actively trying to avoid doing it.
I bolded a line I think could possibly have made the lovers nervous.

Three pages? Three pages? THREE PAGES!

I hate you all.

++Lottie
I think Sally was pretty quiet due to an important work visitor so she hadn't said much up to this point. I can't find much fault for work related absences/ random vote.

I daresay an ex-Lannister imp knows how to stab people in the dark. I'm confused how he's come up with those opinions on Gil. That is, I disagree with them, but it's an early random vote that looks innocent. Nothing more, nothing less, and nothing schemed about it.
Questions skip vote for Gil, but doesn't really say much more on the subject. Later in the post he votes Zil because...?

Mac: seems very nervous about the potential of having a cobbler, don't really get that, frankly they aren't that huge of a threat, certainly not compared to an extra night kill.

I feel pretty good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Everyone else I am neutral about at the moment.
I think within these five is Wilwa's dream. It's most probably one of the four she felt good about, but I can't shake an uneasy feeling I have about Mac. He accused Wilwa of steering the conversation toward hunter/lover talk instead of toward the lions. Then her mention above just doesn't sit right with me. It's not a smoking gun or anything saying "Mac, this guy, bad!" but at the same time their interaction throughout has me wondering if she was chosen because of it.

Right now I'm thinking of voting skip, for the business about the Hunter revealing (and the Seer focusing their protection there) and his seemingly easy vote on Gil.
This is the only thing about Zil's post that really stood out. Mostly it was agreeing, disagreeing, but not saying much.

Somewhat fishy:
Inzil (seems nervous)
Kitanna (really just this one line I pointed out earlier, very flimsy suspicion)
Boro (something seems off, can't put my finger on it)
I know you pointed out your suspicions of me in an earlier post, but why Boro and Zil exactly? I don't recall them being mentioned.

I always fancy that we can find lions - usually, in subsequent days I grant you - if we had gotten right down into the mud-slinging as early as possible on Day 1. You see this in the more basic games, for sure; I don't think this general tactic should change in the more complex ones.
Earlier in this post he claims lions could easily hide in discussions of game-mechanics. But lions can easily hide behind posts like this too.

[Rikae]

Would they really have wanted to get the Hunter already, though? In that scenario, Mac might look better because she voted for him, and it would at least have been a good possibility he would have been her choice to take with her. I still have doubts about it.


Well, I would if I were them - getting the hunter sooner would mean a greater chance of an innocent being killed. You're right, though, in that case Mac looks good. If they thought she was the seer (though I don't see anything particularly seerish about her), Mac would be incriminated.

Actually, come to think of it, wasn't she the first to complain about the Skip-wagon?

[Inziladun]

Well, I would if I were them - getting the hunter sooner would mean a greater chance of an innocent being killed. You're right, though, in that case Mac looks good. If they thought she was the seer (though I don't see anything particularly seerish about her), Mac would be incriminated.

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.

Actually, come to think of it, wasn't she the first to complain about the Skip-wagon?

Lommy was the first to remark on it, but G55 was a bit more talkative on the subject.

[Rikae]

Well, in Mac's shoes I'd have thought it too risky.


What I meant was, I would as someone other than Mac. Assuming her concern about the hunter's role made her hunterish, and she didn't suspect any of them, killing her would have been a good bet.

[Rikae]

Wait, unless you mean the "seerishness" scenario? It's not that risky since her case against Mac doesn't really stand out in any way, which is precisely why I don't think she would have looked seerish in the first place.

I am wary of Mac right now, but it's pretty much only of him being a bear or a maiden fair. For lions, I think we need to look elsewhere. Like Eomer. Or Encai the Kingslayer. Or Kitanna.

[Nogrod]

I know people are always - myself included - most interested in the reasons someone killed the seer. And that is generally a sound tactics. But now I'm afraid we're concentrating too much on Wilwa (the real seer killed by a bear) while in a way forgetting that G55 was killed by the lions (three of them) and was much more likely looking like a seer to some people...

I'm taking a short look at G55's posting.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Given the size of the village, maybe the victims were chosen because they had no connection with the villains. The Seer, in any case, should not be giving away anything on Day One.

In Post #91 Wilwa mentions: Skip, Lottie, Gil, Mac, Lommy, Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. The village would obviously assess what this could mean, because there could be something Seer-ish in Wilwa's notes - leaving the unmentioned in the shadows for an extra day. They would be:

Me (I suppose :p )
Eowne
Inzil
Enca
Green
Wyth
Mac
Cop
Nog
Volo
Sally

So if the lions weren't really expecting the Seer to be findable, and chose Wilwa because of this, then I'm sure two of them at least are in this group.

Can't believe they actually got the Seer, though. That Lannister filth always gets lucky somehow.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh. Spot the error in that post....... :rolleyes:

Staying up past bedtime to post on Werewolf is a bad idea. Just say no, kids.

[Kitanna]

Lynch a lion. Go. Be my guest. Can you see one? Can you find one? Are you going to find one by yelling "go find lions!" at the top of your lungs? I'm a fan of getting lions/wolves/whatever. I'm not a fan of people telling other people to go look for them.
Galadriel had this to say in response to Eomer.

I think what Eomer is saying is that he would prefer that we start making accusations and see how everyone responds. You don't seem to like that. Are you invested in keeping the lions' identities a secret?

(Was that what more like you wanted, Eomer?)
Responds to Galadriel's aforementioned post. Seeing as Galadriel has been proven innocent Enca's response looks a bit odd and buddy-buddy with Eomer.

And I'm not a fan of those who point their fingers in this kind of vague fashion just implying something while actually not even doing it (not to talk of actually laying a claim or making an open suspicion) - looks pretty lionish to me. And anyway, with an hour to go we need to get something going by way of making suspicions. Then Nog says he suspects Galadriel based on her above rant.
wilwa - me likey! Quite loud throughout a good portion of the Day, and she's very reasonable and makes sense.
Her endorsement of Wilwa could have been read as a seer hint. She also says Volo and Mac are her top suspects. I haven't have a read on Volo except for his friendly assassin remark and I've already said I find some of Mac's interactions noteworthy.

++Skip

Because his ideas about the hunter were odd and I don't think they were really in our best interest. Not a lot to go on, I know, but my best hunch right now.
So because of Wilwa's vote her dream was probably one of the four she felt good about.

I can't see anyone else who pings the radar as much, so it's

++skip
Easy bandwagon, lack of time vote, which I am also guilty of casting.

Feeling better about Eomer and Galadriel as well. She's sooo insistent that we can't get a wolf today (not that I'm optimistic by any stretch), I highly doubt a wolf would act this way, and lacking a cobbler, she's most likely innocent.
Why feeling good about Eomer too? Because he is calling for people to list their suspects? Just curious since you only mentioned why you felt good about Galadriel.

Then Galadriel votes Mac.

Currently thinking about voting Galadriel or Wilwa. Could also go for any of the under the radar club, or even Lottie or Skip if the other options are bad. Interesting her top two choices are dead. But that has happened to me as an innocent so I don't think there's much to read into it. Just interesting, like this is interesting

Also anyone else notice that the second and the third voter (Lottie and Sally) voted the one that had voted before them. Weird.

I actually need to do real work. So I'll be back in a few hours to pick up where I left off.

[Kitanna]

Can't believe they actually got the Seer, though. That Lannister filth always gets lucky somehow.

Is this the error you speak of? Cause only lions are Lannisters?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually. Strange for anyone to make such a detailed list of every single player that early in the game, when so little had been said. Lions would certainly notice that, and it would be worth a punt at that stage.

For that reason, maybe it would be a good idea to take a chance on her most suspicious: Volo and Mac. It's not simply that she highlighted those two, but that she lined them up in front of every other player.

Obviously she couldn't have dreamed of both of them; she sounds more suspicious of Volo in this post (to me).

[Macalaure]

Decided to do the voting first after all.

1. Skip -> Gil
2. Lottie -> Skip (because she didn't like his vote, fair enough)
3. Sally -> Lottie (because reasons)
4. Boro -> Inzil (why?)
5. Kitanna -> Skip-2 (suspiciously placed, moving skip ahead of a four tie, but her reasoning feels innocent)
6. Wilwa -> Skip-3 (if Wilwa was still alive, this vote would look horrible)
7. Inzil -> Skip-4 (badly placed and badly reasoned. Inzil had a vote as well, so maybe part of him choosing the bandwaggon was self-preservation)
8. Gala -> Mac (boo)
9. Rikae -> Wilwa (a vote for the known seer is yucky, but I don't think she could have had any such suspicion; her reasons are solid)
10. Encai -> Nogrod (not sure about this one)
11. Eonwe -> Skip-5 (comes out of nowhere and adds vote #5. If he was a baddie, he could have found a less obvious place for his vote...)
12. Wyth22 -> Mac-2 (... like this)
13. Mac -> Inzil-2 (... or this :D )
14. Gil -> Boro (still spreading the vote at this late point, but then, Gil is Gil)
15. Lommy -> Wilwa-2 (spent the last hour vote-counting, reasoning is so-so)
16. Green -> Mac-3 (not happy about this one, but I can see where she's coming from)
17. Nogrod -> Mac-4 (this one I like less, as he's mostly using the point Greenie made; and riding a counter-bandwaggon is always better than riding the original one or throwing the vote away; if Inzil is a lion, Nog's vote looks not so good (Greenie's, too))
18. Volo -> Gala (throws vote away)
19. Eomer -> Inzil-3 (at this late point, he's effectively throwing his vote away, too, though less obviously)

Based on how the votes look, not overall suspicion

Innocent(-ish): Kitanna (but bad if there's a lion among Gil, Lottie, or Inzil), Rikae, Greenie
Neutral or not sure: Lottie, Sally, Encai, Eonwe, Gil, Nogrod
Suspicious(-ish): Boro, Inzil, Wyth, Lommy, Volo, Eomer
No vote from Nerwen and Copper.

One other interesting thing: Wilwa adding vote #3 to skip would guarantee to put her under some scrutiny toDay. The bear didn't care about this, which again points to the lovers feeling relatively safe yesterDay.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Is this the error you speak of? Cause only lions are Lannisters?

My error was in arguing as if the lions had targetted Wilwa, which obviously didn't happen. That kinda rendered my whole post pointless.

By the way, I also noted that 'odd' response to which you refer. Classic tactic?

[Inziladun]

Wait, unless you mean the "seerishness" scenario? It's not that risky since her case against Mac doesn't really stand out in any way, which is precisely why I don't think she would have looked seerish in the first place.

No, I meant the "G55 as a Hunter" scenario.

I am wary of Mac right now, but it's pretty much only of him being a bear or a maiden fair. For lions, I think we need to look elsewhere. Like Eomer. Or Encai the Kingslayer. Or Kitanna.

Sorry, I don't follow the Kingslayer reference. I really ought to read these books. :rolleyes:
Is this the error you speak of? Cause only lions are Lannisters?

Maybe he means the fact the he said Wilwa was slain by Lions.

x/d with Eomer x 2 and Mac

[Rikae]

G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually. Strange for anyone to make such a detailed list of every single player that early in the game, when so little had been said. Lions would certainly notice that, and it would be worth a punt at that stage.

For that reason, maybe it would be a good idea to take a chance on her most suspicious: Volo and Mac. It's not simply that she highlighted those two, but that she lined them up in front of every other player.

Obviously she couldn't have dreamed of both of them; she sounds more suspicious of Volo in this post (to me).

I don't think it's strange at all. Lots of people do that. Her argument against Mac and Volo is pretty run-of-the-mill flimsy Day 1 stuff, too. Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I don't think it's strange at all. Lots of people do that. Her argument against Mac and Volo is pretty run-of-the-mill flimsy Day 1 stuff, too. Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.

I'm not sure. Looking back, I see that Mac did a similar list without suspecting anyone, and Lommy also did one without really suspecting anyone (she suspected G55 but only for being quite passionate in discussion, apparently).

G55's list, however, had two clear suspicions. I think her case against Mac at least made sense; but to claim that Volo 'rubbed her the wrong way' and was a certain vote candidate... there might be something to that.

[Kitanna]

My error was in arguing as if the lions had targetted Wilwa, which obviously didn't happen. That kinda rendered my whole post pointless.

Right. Lions = Lannisters. Bear and Maiden fair = not Lannisters. You said Lannister filth, not bear filth. And I obviously lied about going back to work. And I'm not sure why I'm clarifying my answer to your error.

By the way, I also noted that 'odd' response to which you refer. Classic tactic?
I'm not really sure what you're talking about. I've referred to a lot of things.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

You've lost me, Kit. Are we no longer even to refer to Lannisters without being accused of being the Bear?

That other point, seeing as you're obviously not in the mood to be cryptic about things, is that I agreed with your assessment of Enca's response to me (you had used the word 'odd' to describe it in your previous post). It was rather chummy behaviour, and I noted it at the time.

[Kitanna]

You've lost me, Kit. Are we no longer even to refer to Lannisters without being accused of being the Bear?


No, no. I missed So if the lions weren't really expecting the Seer to be findable, and chose Wilwa because of this, then I'm sure two of them at least are in this group. entirely. I read your last line as the Lannisters got lucky in killing Wilwa, not that they got lucky because she died. I just focused on the wrong part of your statement.

That other point, seeing as you're obviously not in the mood to be cryptic about things, is that I agreed with your assessment of Enca's response to me (you had used the word 'odd' to describe it in your previous post). It was rather chummy behaviour, and I noted it at the time. No cryptic tonight I'm afraid. Too much RL work. But yes, I'm glad you noticed it as well.

[Nogrod]

Okay. G55 seems not a person whose posting screams seerishness... which I think many of you have noticed already before me. :o

But I'd still like to put forth a couple of things I think merit consideration.


First of all, she was the one the lions (wolves) killed and it is absolutely their priority to kill the seer asap. Whether the bear got lucky/unlucky by hitting the real seer is another question and isn't of importance discussing G55 and who the lions are.


Secondly G55 was amazingly double-faced yesterDay. On one hand she was really assertive, clearly on top of the game looking confident, smart and showing she had thought about things very thoroughly. On another she made all kinds of odd statements like all these "Lynch a lion, be my guest", saying it's easier to jump Skip than those who voted him and yet maintaining Skip was one of her candidates to vote, being seemingly serious about Lommy's random point that the first voters had always voted the one who voted before them saying she'd file them for later reference etc.

I've played with her a few times before and especially her very self-confident, almost leadership-like posting was new to me at least - and I actually realised it only now as I went through her posts again - I guess I concentrated more on the other half of her act yesterDay more.


She also made one interesting remark about those who had voted Skip (or were openly suspecting him) - not so much what she said but how she said it: (underlining mine) I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.

In her list-post Eomer already referred to she makes this to and fro with Skip but openly suspects two people: Mac and Volo.

Here's what she says:
Mac - really don't like the way he pushes some discussion. His arguments don't make that much sense (slash I just don't agree, but then that's how we evaluate sense most of the time), and he's very insistent on them. However, he's blatantly running for the centre spotlight of attention, which is unwolvy. But still, the way he says some stuff just doesn't sound right. Vote candidate.
Volo - don't remember much of him at this point, but some of the earlier things he said rubbed me the wrong way. They just don't sit right. Vote candidate. Like you see, her suspicion on Mac is quite specified relating to his posting - even if a bit contradictory. Volo on the other hand is handled with a lot less detail aka. "some early posting rubbed her the wrong way"...

So if she was thought of being the seer because of her suspicions, I'd say Volo is a more believble candidate than Mac as she took pains to actually specify her suspicion on Mac in posting-terms.


Then again she clearly defended Wilwa (and Lottie "gives good vibes") but that was mostly grounded on specifics about her posting - so not exactly a seer-hint either (like Lottie could have been - but that positiveness was maybe too shallow to raise any interest from the lions).

So if the lions were not going after her having spotted one of them (Volo? Mac maybe less believably?), then it could have been her swag and some odd-points together that killed her: too self-assured and knoweldgeable (or putting too much effort) not to be an ordo and odd enough to try and raise some suspicion as to not be the "one everyone trusts and therefore to be done with"?


Hard to say.

It's 3AM and I'm to bed. See you later toDay.

[Macalaure]

Galadriel

Joking list in #6. Could the lions have thought there's a seer hint hidden in there? Bit of a stretch, probably. Would point to Wyth being a lion.

Then there's several posts of role discussion, during which she strangely grows more and more irritated.

Big list in #107. The two that stand out are Volo and me. Her suspicion of Volo comes without real reason, but it wouldn't make me point at her and scream "seer" if I were him. Shortly after she votes for me.

She's still around after her vote, defending Skip and receiving some criticism for it from Nogrod and Rikae (oddly, neither of them Skip voters themselves).


The only people who could've thought they've been dreamt of if they're lions are Wyth and Volo, and it's a stretch for both. If the lions thought she was gifted, it must've simply been due to her being overly passionate.

Or they killed her for a different reason - maybe they had no clue on the seer yet. If they were trying to frame me, Greenie or Nogrod would've been better choices. Unless those two are lions, but I feel like I'm starting to reach here.

She's obviously not a no-trail kill, but maybe a false-trail one? In that case the lions would be found among the people she didn't suspect in #107. Unfortunately, that doesn't exactly narrow down the list.

[Loslote]

I know people are always - myself included - most interested in the reasons someone killed the seer. And that is generally a sound tactics. But now I'm afraid we're concentrating too much on Wilwa (the real seer killed by a bear) while in a way forgetting that G55 was killed by the lions (three of them) and was much more likely looking like a seer to some people...

I'm taking a short look at G55's posting.

I agree that the Wilwa discussion hasn't really gone anywhere - she didn't leave much of a trail as a seer, and I don't know why she was targeted by the lovers, but I feel like if the lovers were looking for a seer candidate, there were more likely options.

If Nog were a lion, I don't know that he would have brought our attention back to G55. After all, he could have spun his wheels in the Wilwa conversation for a while, made himself seem helpful, and gotten nowhere towards lion-hunting. Instead, he (and Eomer, who followed Nog's lead and looked into G55's posts) bring our attention back to the person the lions actually did kill, and who might have been an attempt at the seer. I think that reflects very well on both of them.

G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually. Strange for anyone to make such a detailed list of every single player that early in the game, when so little had been said. Lions would certainly notice that, and it would be worth a punt at that stage.

For that reason, maybe it would be a good idea to take a chance on her most suspicious: Volo and Mac. It's not simply that she highlighted those two, but that she lined them up in front of every other player.

Obviously she couldn't have dreamed of both of them; she sounds more suspicious of Volo in this post (to me).

I agree with this. I think, if G55 was killed as a likely seer target, Volo was probably the reason why. Moreover, since there wasn't a huge backlash against him until later in the Day, I also think it's very unlikely the lions were attempting to frame him.

I don't think it's strange at all. Lots of people do that. Her argument against Mac and Volo is pretty run-of-the-mill flimsy Day 1 stuff, too. Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.

Well, but if you're a lion looking for a seer on Night 2, that might be the best you can get in terms of seer candidates. G55 suspected Volo above and beyond almost everyone else, and the one person she put him level with had a lot more reasoning behind his placing than Volo did, which makes her suspicion of him noteworthy, and noteworthy suspicion of someone who actually is a lion is eye-catching to the lions. I could see them basing their Night-kill off that.

EDIT: xed with Mac

[Macalaure]

If Nog were a lion, I don't know that he would have brought our attention back to G55.
Depends. If the lions tried to kill the seer unsuccessfully, then they should analyze the kill themselves thoroughly, subtly emphasizing whatever points the other ways, hoping the majority of the village just goes along and is too lazy to look for themselves. If they made a no/false trail kill, then they can just sit back and watch the village mess up.

I haven't paid much attention to toDay's posting yet, so I'll go do that now.

[WythDryden]

Galadriel

Joking list in #6. Could the lions have thought there's a seer hint hidden in there? Bit of a stretch, probably. Would point to Wyth being a lion.



LOL. Even IF I were a lion, taking her out based off the joke she made in that post would be: A.) drawing unnecessary attention to myself (and a bit suspicious), and B.) far too blatant on her part to be considered for being a raven. We know now that she was not the raven, but it wouldn't be in her best interest as coming off as being such anyways as they have a generally short lifespan from what I understand. A more subtle tactic would be a wiser move. Such as deflecting suspicion away from yourself, and towards a person who voted for you? >;-P

[Inziladun]

Amidst the other discussions, the voting yesterDay should be examined, I think. I may not have time tonight, since it's bedtime soon, but I'll give it a shot tomorrow if someone else doesn't beat me to it.

[Macalaure]

Ah yes, you seemed quite worried about the direction the conversation was talking yesterDay. It seemed, and seems, a bit far fetched to me - simply discussing the lovers' role in the game on Day 1 without any clue who they, or the wolves, might be doesn't put them in any particular danger, nor does it protect the wolves.
It was far-fetched, but what are you going to do on Day One? However, if too many people discuss roles and strategy instead of trying to poke holes into each other to see if there's something furry hidden inside, then lions and bears do benefit.

why Boro and Zil exactly?
Boro was pure gut feeling. Inzil was very quick to suspect me over something minor early on. I did mention that in one of my posts... somewhere.

LOL. Even IF I were a lion, taking her out based off the joke she made in that post would be: A.) drawing unnecessary attention to myself (and a bit suspicious), and B.) far too blatant on her part to be considered for being a raven. We know now that she was not the raven, but it wouldn't be in her best interest as coming off as being such anyways as they have a generally short lifespan from what I understand. A more subtle tactic would be a wiser move. Such as deflecting suspicion away from yourself, and towards a person who voted for you? >;-P
Wow, you're being defensive. I said it was a stretch, but now I do suspect you. :rolleyes:

[Gil-Galad]

Amidst the other discussions, the voting yesterDay should be examined, I think. I may not have time tonight, since it's bedtime soon, but I'll give it a shot tomorrow if someone else doesn't beat me to it.

I was just thinking this as well as I was reading everything. Looking at Gal and Wilwa is good, but as some have noted, the trails don't lead far given we are only onto day 2.

The band-wagon on Skip gives me a bad feeling, was his poor reasoning really enough to garner suspicion or did it give an opening for the lions to start an easy vote. It was a day 1 vote after all, which are flimsy at best.

I need to look at the case against Mac as well, I do admit I am not sure entirely the reason but will read up on it.

[WythDryden]

Wow, you're being defensive. I said it was a stretch, but now I do suspect you. :rolleyes:

You'll have to excuse me being defensive, this is my first experience being accused. Though it is still a Wolfy thing to do by distracting people with farfetched ideas that were pretty plainly taken as jokes, while also implicating someone who had voted on you.

Edit: X'd Gil

[Rikae]

Well, but if you're a lion looking for a seer on Night 2, that might be the best you can get in terms of seer candidates. G55 suspected Volo above and beyond almost everyone else, and the one person she put him level with had a lot more reasoning behind his placing than Volo did, which makes her suspicion of him noteworthy, and noteworthy suspicion of someone who actually is a lion is eye-catching to the lions. I could see them basing their Night-kill off that.

EDIT: xed with Mac

If you're a lion on Night 2 with no better leads on the seer than "someone suspected one of us in a list in an ordinary way", killing that person is a good way to create a trail back to yourself to kill what's probably (and was) an ordo. Not wise. A lot of people threw around vague suspicions on Day 1, as usual, without being seers. After all, the odds are against the seer's first dream being a baddie, in general, on Day 1.

Nope, I don't think it was an attempt on the seer at all. I think perhaps that was the false trail they hoped to set out for us - look how many people are insisting on it, even while admitting there was nothing particularly seerish about Gal!

The most seerish comment was from our actual seer, about Mac or about her list of trusted people, though even that isn't much. Still, Boro, Kit, Nerwen, Mac and I are all fairly likely early seer dreams.

Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?

At any rate, I really think we ought to look at the people who are playing it safe, people the 'trail', such as it is, conveniently bypasses.

Reading quickly over yesterDay, Eomer's posting struck me as very safe, basically just amplifying things that were already being said and bantering a bit. Lottie, Kit and Inzil's votes were fishy (so was Eomer's). Boro, of all people, is sleeping under the reindeer. I really have a feeling the Lannisters are sitting in the corner right now and enjoying the show.

[Encaitare]

I've just caught up on the thread and need to go to bed soon, so no time for a detailed response. But I do have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the bandwagon on Skip yesterDay. In order of their voting, that was Loslote, Kitanna, Wilwa, Inzil, and Eonwe. This is mostly based on gut feeling, but I don't think a Lion would be one of the first to vote, so probably not Lottie. So that leaves Kitanna, Inzil, and Eonwe. I'll review the thread tomorrow to likely decide among these three.

[Nerwen]

Here and reading.

[Nerwen]

Apologies for the lack of activity yesterDay– I will try to make up for it toDay.

So, since there has already been much discussion about the two Night-kills, I thought it might be an idea to set out just who said what.

Wilwa (Seer)– killed by Bear

1. Suspected Lion
–Suggested: Kit #170, Volo #174, Nog #180, WythDryden #182, Zil #184 (possibly: wording is ambiguous), Enca #185.
–Disputed: Zil #172 (“weren’t a lot of people talking about the Lovers?)

2. Suspected Seer, who had left a “Bear hint”
–Suggested: Rikae #177 (with the hint being on Mac), Nog #180, WythDryden #182 (“possible, but improbable”), Kit at #186 (unless still referring to her suspected-Lion scenario).
–Disputed: Mac #179 ("If she did dream about anyone guilty, she's hiding it completely. I doubt it, though”), Enca #185 ("Statistically, it's more likely that Wilwa dreamed of an innocent”), Lottie #207 ("didn’t leave much of a trail’).

3. Suspected general special role, based on “nervous” posting
–Suggested: Rikae #177 ("the bear may have been content to get either a gifted or a lion”).

4. As a general danger to the Lovers
–Suggested Mac #179 ("Maybe they thought if they could get rid of a person who talks a lot about their role, the general discussion would end up focusing more on the lions”), Enca #185.
–Disputed: Rikae #183 ("simply discussing the lovers' role in the game on Day 1 without any clue who they, or the wolves, might be doesn't put them in any particular danger”).

5. As a no-trace kill
-Suggested Eomer #192. [This appears to rest on a confusion about who actually killed Wilwa, so may not count]


G55 next.

EDIT:made corrections.

[Volo]

Secondly G55 was amazingly double-faced yesterDay. On one hand she was really assertive, clearly on top of the game looking confident, smart and showing she had thought about things very thoroughly. On another she made all kinds of odd statements like all these "Lynch a lion, be my guest", saying it's easier to jump Skip than those who voted him and yet maintaining Skip was one of her candidates to vote, being seemingly serious about Lommy's random point that the first voters had always voted the one who voted before them saying she'd file them for later reference etc.

I've played with her a few times before and especially her very self-confident, almost leadership-like posting was new to me at least - and I actually realised it only now as I went through her posts again - I guess I concentrated more on the other half of her act yesterDay more.
I'm inclined to think that G55's change of playing style (based on what you say), which seemed erratic and outspoken to me yesterDay, is something which was interpreted as not-Ordo. My intuition was Lion. For the Lions, it's obviously Crow, 3idCrow (likely), Targaryen, Bear or Maiden.

Just to clarify:

18. Volo -> Gala (throws vote away)
Factually, it is a throwaway vote. I hadn't realized that only me, Noggie, Eomer and Nerwen, who didn't vote, were remaining. Noggie was musing about voting G55 so I thought of joining him rather than voting someone I didn't think was a Lion (strategically it might have been more sensible to actively choose between skip, wilwa and Mac, but I had a gut feeling, I wanted non of them lynched...). So I xd with Noggie.

I'll conclude, that wilwa didn't leave a hint on her Dream. Prudent of her. Doesn't make sense to speculate what role she could have Dreamed of.

Unfortunately, this doesn't leave me with much. :rolleyes:

[Coppermirror]

I'm here, reading, and very, very slowly working through an analysis of Day 1. As I mentioned in the admin thread, on Day 1 my internet cut out part way through page 2, which is why I couldn't vote. But I absolutely must vote toDay.

[Nerwen]

Sorry for the delay– RL intervened.

Galadriel55 (Ordo)– killed by Lions

1. Suspected Targaryen
–Suggested: Rikae #177 ("she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early?”)
–Disputed: Zil #184 (“would they have really wanted to get the Hunter already, though?”; points out that this scenario would make Mac look good)

2. Suspected Seer
–Suggested: Volo #178 (from list at #107; “dream” = innocent Wilwa/guilty Mac; former more likely), Nog #180 ("So as a working hypothesis I'd say the lions were after someone they had even the faintest reasons to think was the seer”) [At #205, concedes she was “not a person whose posting screams seerishness”], Kit #194 ("Her endorsement of Wilwa could have been read as a seer hint. She also says Volo and Mac are her top suspects.”), Eomer #196 ("G55's post #107 is rather Seerish, actually”; also suggests it points to Volo and Mac); [Nog #205 thinks Volo more likely], Mac #206 (suggests it could point to Wyth and Volo) [at #206 says this is a “stretch”], Lottie #207 (points at Volo)
-Disputed: Rikae #200 ("Lions can't just assume everyone who suspects one of them is the seer.”)

3. As a general danger to the Lions
–Suggested: Kit #181 ("Maybe too helpful in the lionesses' eyes?”)

3. As a frame
–Suggested (tentatively): Mac #206 ("If they were trying to frame me, Greenie or Nogrod would've been better choices. Unless those two are lions, but I feel like I'm starting to reach here.”)

4. As a false trail
–Suggested: Mac #206, Rikae #214 ("look how many people are insisting on it, even while admitting there was nothing particularly seerish about Gal!”)

6. Suspected Bear
–Suggested: Rikae #214 ("Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?”)

7. Suspected general special role
–Suggested: Nog #205 ("it could have been her swag and some odd-points together that killed her”). Volo #219 ("I'm inclined to think that G55's change of playing style (based on what you say), which seemed erratic and outspoken to me yesterDay, is something which was interpreted as not-Ordo”)

Overview/Analysis

Well, as you see it’s quite interesting, but tremendously over-complicated and there are just far too many names to keep track of… wait...

[Thinlómien]

I should've knocked on wood yesterDay when I said this game seems almost too easy despite the werebear... :rolleyes:

We should - obviously - look at Wilwa's post and try to figure out her Night1 dream and look at Galadriel's posts to see if there are any clues why the wolves wanted to kill her. Not doing that now as my time is limited, instead replying to stuff from toDay (reading and writing simultaneously so apologies if I repeat somebody's points):

G55's list suggests that she could have been interpreted to dream of wilwa being Innocent - which doesn't help us much. G55 emphasizes wilwa unlike any other.
I guess she could have been suspected of dreaming of a guilty Mac, but doesn't seem that way to me. Could be the Lions were nervous of her being correct though...Now that you provided the link, I had a look at the list myself, and here it is:


Did not stand out:
Eonwe
Enca (much too little impression of her yet, and my first game with her and all)
Zil - not much to say about him. He poked around but didn't stand out either way
Boro - see above
Kit - ditto
Greenie - didn't know the game is on
Rikae - doesn't feel innocent, but also doesn't feel guilty
Cop - somewhat crazy, but otherwise ok / no impression.
Nog - seems more absent than not, or maybe my impressions of him just got lost in the sea of posts and players.
sally - blank on her.

Eomer - picks and pokes, but looks ok.
Lommy - more flambuoyant than I remember, but no feeling either way.
Lottie - gives good vibes.
wilwa - me likey! Quite loud throughout a good portion of the Day, and she's very reasonable and makes sense.
Nerwen - looks like her usual self. Too early and too little posts from her to declare "feels innocent", but it's getting there.
Wyth - not much from him, eh? He made one pretty good point, then backed down. I'd say, good point, backing down like that is not the greatest strategy but I've done worse. I would not vote him either way, this being his first game, but even without that I wouldn't vote him. Good vibes maybe?
Mac - really don't like the way he pushes some discussion. His arguments don't make that much sense (slash I just don't agree, but then that's how we evaluate sense most of the time), and he's very insistent on them. However, he's blatantly running for the centre spotlight of attention, which is unwolvy. But still, the way he says some stuff just doesn't sound right. Vote candidate.
Gil - I don't like the way he posts, but he posts this way. I tend to give more slack for erratic and careless playing styles than most others, and this game is no exception. When I read his posts, I look more at the content than at how he says it.
Volo - don't remember much of him at this point, but some of the earlier things he said rubbed me the wrong way. They just don't sit right. Vote candidate.
skip - I don't agree with what he's said, and I don't like his vote, but I can understand his vote. At this point I think it's much easier to jump on him than claim that he jumped on Gil. So semi-vote candidate.
G55 - my lovely innocent self.Obviously if the wolves thought she was the seer, it was not anything from the first category. If I recally correctly, she did defend Wilwa quite a lot so she might have seemed seerish in that way? Or looking at the list above, Nerwen? Or what about Lottie "giving good vibes" and nothing else? Evil!Mac and evil!Volo seem like options too, but I think they were both suspected more by someone else, and the phrasing is not especially seerish at least in this post. Should obviously look at her other posts for more seerish phrasings or things that could have been interpreted as gifted hints. (I guess calling herself "my lovely innocent self" can't count as a gifted hint to anyone??)

Wilwa

In #91, she lists Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, and Nerwen as people she feels good about, no reasons given. If she has dreamt about an innocent, most likely it is one of these four. If that's the only instance she names people innocent, I'm a bit worried. Usually seers make sure their dreams can be figured out if they die (should maybe check Wilwa's posts if she left us any code) but using just this, I'm feeling slightly better about Boro, because if she was putting her known innocent there she would've put him first, right?

Also, as interesting as it is, people shouldn't concentrate half as much on why the bear killed Wilwa. The bear is not our primary lynch target at the moment.

And what is this talk about wolves wanting to off the hunter?? *looks especially at Rikae* Whenever people suggest the wolves killed someone for any other reason other than seeming seerish, it smells of covering trails to me. The wolves need to get rid of the seer, first and foremost. There needs to be a good reason not to go for someone who looks seerish to them.

Aaaaand that's the end of page 5, running out of time now, so only getting to page 6 later toDay. Until then!

[A Little Green]

Here very briefly before having to dash off. Firstly, whether the bear intended to kill the seer or not, I'm betting the lions are having a really good time right now. :( As for their Gal kill, I think it's possible they got gifted vibes off her. As Nog or someone pointed out, she did behave a little differently from her usual style. She seemed more involved and agitated than usual, which would probably have stood out to anyone who's played with her before. But I don't really buy the argument of her death incriminating Mac (although he has enough incriminating him as it is) or Volo, unless they are really twitchy lions. I'd like to still reread Gal at some point but definitely don't have the time for that now.

The problem with this of course is the lovers don’t know who the lions are and keeping them alive could end this game very quickly. But also the lions probably want the lovers alive for extra kills. I’m waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?Again - how do we choose between those two? How do we tell? And in any case, I'd say hunting the lions is our first priority since we win once all the lions are dead. It doesn't get much more straightforward than that, does it? Unless, of course, we at some point have very clear evidence of someone being the bear and no idea about the lions, it might be worth a lynch, but at the moment, spending a lot of time and energy on wondering about the bear is probably not worth our while.

Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).Depends on the lions, I guess - purposefully targeting the hunter seems really risky, though.

Easy bandwagon, lack of time vote, which I am also guilty of casting.Hmm? I know the feeling, but still, something about the phrasing of this rubs me the wrong way. Like, "look, he did this suspicious thing, not that I'm accusing him of course".

Now I really have to be off, but I'll be back later!

[Nerwen]

Finally, my take on the Night-kills

Wilwa

No idea, really– she was killed by the Bear, whose motivations are hard to guess at this point. Certainly, though, her preoccupation with that role was very noteworthy yesterDay (even if it seemed to begin as IC posting). I would say that (from my list at #217), scenarios #1, #2 and #3 are all quite possible, while #4 is very unlikely, unless our Bear and Maiden are a nervous pair indeed. (Can’t comment on #5 for reasons already stated.)

Unfortunately I don’t think she left any really clear indication as to whom she actually did dream (if of a baddie, it would surely be Mac as the Bear).


Galadriel55

This is also puzzling. As a matter of principle, the player the wolves most want to kill is always the Seer (unless they’re cubs who don’t know any better). However, she in fact said little that seemed obviously Seer-ish, leading me to point out the same thing I did last game: sometimes wolves have so little lead to the Seer early in the game that they are forced to choose the kill for other reasons entirely (yes, I was a wolf that game– but it was also quite true, as you may recall). For this reason, I think the ideas that she might have been killed as a false trail/Targaryen/general “special role” all have merit.

Again, though *if* she was killed as a “Seer” her supposed dreamed villain (if any) would be Mac or Volo (possibly Wyth if we accept Mac's idea that the Lions took her #6 joke-post as a hint).

It is interesting how Mac shows up as a possible suspect based on both kills– yet, the reasons are contradictory. It can’t very well be both that the Lovers killed Wilwa for thinking him the Bear, while the the Lions killed G55 for thinking him a Lion. Unless the Lions had (correctly) guessed Mac to be the Bear while (mistakenly) thinking “Seer” Galadriel had dreamed him. (Yeah, I’m thinking this out as I go along.)

Note: had observed, but not read, Greenie’s post at time of posting this.

[Nerwen]

Depends on the lions, I guess - purposefully targeting the hunter seems really risky, though.
Yes, but the longer a hunter survives, the more chance he or she has of choosing the right target. I'm not saying that's how our particular lions operate, mind you, but I think it's a reasonable strategy.

Edit: typo

[Coppermirror]

Time to roll up my dirty hermit sleeves and look at what went on! This post will be long and maybe split up into parts, but I don't think I'll be able to get the grasp I need on what was going on otherwise.

Our Wilwa the Three-Eyed Ravenbeing zapped on Night 2 is the worst thing that could have happened. 18 people left, of which there are 2 lovers, 3 lions, and 13 innocents. It's also unfortunate that the 3 we've lost were talkative.

Page 1
There's plenty of banter from assorted people. Nothing looks particularly suspicious there at the moment.

The first substantive post of the Day comes from Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven. Goes over Bear, Maiden and Targaryen roles. Inzil of Tully agrees with her analysis and points out that the Bear and Maiden can choose who to side with. He sounds straightforward but quiet. Encaitare the peasant concludes in a stressed way that we have four enemies plus a possible cobbler to take out.

G55 the Innocent wildling agrees with Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven that we don't want to kill the bear and says she would trade the extra kill for a cobbler if push came to shove. Later she comments on how her assumption that the Lovers would be against the village might have been wrong. At #22 there's a piece of banter between her and Lommy about Encaitare the peasant and bears which might have spooked the Lions about her if Encaitare is one of their number or perhaps made them think she was a bear-dreaming Seer leaving hint. But would that be enough for them to act on? Odds are low that a Seer would have dreamed of a villain on Night 1.

Mac Connington likes Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven and G55 the Innocent wildling's posts, but thinks Inzil of Tully's added little. Nerwen of Martell likes his post, thinks there's been too much lovers and Targaryen talk, and suggests that those talking about them are nefariously steering the conversation away from Lannisters. But...what else did people have to talk about then, other than that? They seem legitimate discussion topics.

Lommy of Baratheon goes over bear pros and cons and makes a point of being freaked out. Points out the worst case scenario, which does indeed sound very bad. I assume her figures are correct. Wants a focus on the wolves but hopes the wolves and bear will take care of each other. Her post looks OK and sensible but it also takes a slightly scolding tone that might be good cover for a Lannister. Then goes on to mention that Nerwen of Martell's post looks classicly wolfy but that at least it got conversation going. Nerwen of Martell then points out that wolves like nothing more than bear hunting. And she may well be right about that. It is a possibility that the bear and maiden would also follow that line of reasoning.

On the other hand, I disagree that bear discussion was a bad idea at that point of the Day. It wasn't going to divert attention away from Lannisters and at that stage I doubt it could help anyone catch the bear, so it wouldn't help the Lannisters even if they were among those talking about it. Though Nerwen of Martell made me a little suspicious of her at first, her later posts on page 1 look better.

Skip of an innocent house wanted to focus on the lions rather than the lovers. Then suggests that the Targaryen should reveal...Oh, okay, I'm beginning to see how he got the axe on Day 1.

Then Volo of Greyjoy suggests everyone revealing as the Targaryen. :eek: Don't think he was serious there.

Mac Connington fake reveals as the Targaryen...Okay, even to make a point in a large village, I'm not sure that was a good idea, and it does make me wonder if there are any benefits to a stunt like that for a bear or lion. Thinking about it more, I'd guess there are potential benefits there both for an innocent, a bear or a lion, so that doesn't really help. His points about the Targaryen otherwise look fine, and he's both a little suspicious of Nerwen of Martell and of Lommy of Baratheon for her level of suspicion against Nerwen. My gut tells me that Mac and Nerwen are unlikely to be Lannisters together.

Page 2 ...So many pages still to get through.

- Eomer of Stark agrees that the Targaryen should not reveal, and appears to joke about Lommy and Boro being lions.
- Volo of Greyjoy likes the cut of Mac Connington's jib, and also wants to forge an alliance with the lovers.
- Skip of an innocent house thought it wasn't crazy for the Targaryen to reveal and that the numbers favour it.

- Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven discusses the likely bear and maiden allegiance pattern. Thinks it's interesting that Lommy was panicked about double night kills but only wanted to focus on wolves, and is a little confused by Lommy's vote conspiracy suggestion. It's possible that if Lommy is a lover, that might have been enough for the lovers to want Wilwa out of the way. Although I doubt that they would have been able to guess she was the Three-Eyed Raven from that.

- WithDryden of Martell claims to start thinking maybe Skip is innocent. Suspicious of Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven for looking too helpful. Perhaps this could have encouraged the lovers to think of Wilwa as a potential Lannister.
- Kitanna the peasant at #47 is fairly clear and logical but in her replies to Wilwa doesn't make any new points, other than to emphasise concern about Night kills rather than (presumably) vote conspiracies.

- Lommy of Baratheon at #48 is puzzling in her bolding and italicising of her statement about possible vote ruling. Is that really something a villain would want to say? I'll try reading it each way. (1) an innocent who really is spooked by the situation. That's consistent with what I can see of her analysis of the stats, which frankly are rather concerning. (2) a lover putting out feelers to the Lannisters. Not, perhaps, particularly likely at that point of the game. I can't see that being a good move for them. (3) a Lannister putting out feelers for the lovers. Not as risky as it would be for a lover, but still risky. Lommy would have to be a very bold Lannister taking a risk on Day 1 like that.

That statement is something that would be likely to attract the attention of the Three-Eyed Crow, and the lovers and Lannisters would want to avoid that, plus they couldn't realistically have expected to get the Three-Eyed Crow on Night 2. So perhaps Lommy is more likely to be an innocent.

- Gil at #49 says that the lovers and lions are likely to go for each other. G55 the innocent wildling has a point later on that actually keeping the bear alive could be in the interests of the lions, and Wilwa the Three-Eyed Crow disagrees a little later saying that it depends on how the Lannisters play it. His reasoning at #57 looks clearer and better, though the sort of precision he's advocating is probably impossible. None of it really helps to assess his guilt or innocence.
- Wilwa at #50 says "One good thing is that with this many players our gifteds are fairly well hidden." - which perhaps might have been read by the bear as something like "Oof, it's hard for a lion to find a gifted in a big village like this". I'm thinking now that Wilwa most likely looked Lionish to the lovers and that's why she was killed.
- Inzil's remarks are short and circumspect.
- Rikae's "Duly noted..." at #56 gives me a bad feeling. But perhaps I'm just reading too much into it.
- Boro at #63 thinks lions will be laying low and only going for the lovers themselves if there's a direct threat. Decent reasoning. At a guess I would say his tone isn't lionish.
- Skip of an Innocent house votes Gil. His reasoning isn't too bad.
- Mac at #70 comes over as a little odd, in that he's saying that a ranger save of a revealed Targaryen in a hypothetical scenario would be a bad thing since it'd mean there wouldn't be two analysable lion kills. I suppose he has a partial point, but I don't really like this. He also has some suspicions of Kitanna, Inzil, and to an extent Lommy. I can see his reasoning for those.
- Rikae at #75 is definitely moving in on Skip. Would a lion be doing that this early? At #77 votes Mac, or is it a fake vote?

Page 3

- Lottie is in a hurry and votes for Skip. If she's lionish, she probably knew about Rikae's suspicions of him at #75 and might have found him a good bet to get axed. While criticising Skip for making an easy vote, she makes an easy vote for him herself. But hypocrisy doesn't by any means have to equal villainy, especially given that she was undoubtedly in a hurry. Other than that, her list of impressions about people's tones seems well thought out and in some ways aligns with my own. This confuses me and makes me think "ah, she's right, and thinking along sensible lines" but then, it should be easy for a clever lion to do that, shouldn't it? I'm a little worried, and I will definitely not allow Lottie to go under my radar.
- And Sally at #85 votes for Lottie based on the list, but apparently for the opposite reason to my concerns. I may be getting hypocritical myself in turn, but that makes me feel relatively okay about Sally.
- Boro votes Inzil. Doesn't give clear reasoning but implies that it's because he thinks lions would be laying low and being uncontroversial. This in line with what he said earlier, and makes sense. He could be a lion conveniently following the line of thought expressed by Mac and Lottie about Inzil, though.
- Wilwa feels good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Most likely, one of those was her dream. She lists some mild suspicions but the phrasing doesn't look likely.
- #94, only possible suspicion I see from G55 there is maybe of Mac.
- #98, Eomer's reasoning is probably right but doesn't give a lot of insight into him.
- #99 Kitanna votes Skip. She acknowledges that her reasoning is flimsy, but goes through it. It's not even bad reasoning as Day 1 goes, but she could just as easily be guilty as innocent.
- #100 Mac is so confusing. But that's not a bad strategy, especially for innocents on Day 1, so it's not necessarily suspicious.
- #105 Lommy's list seems reasonable enough. Points out that Skip is an easy vote, and of course she was right. Hard to draw any conclusions from this though.
- #107 G55 could have come over as Seerish there pretty easily, I think. But there are so many things she could have "dreamed" of that at this point it's likely futile to try to guess. But later in the game, there's a slim chance her list could have some use.
- Wilwa the Three-Eyed Crow and Inzil both vote Skip of an Innocent house.
- Rikae says "Something about Wilwa bothers me. She's reasonable enough, but she seems nervous". Interesting, and it probably shows at minimum that Rikae is a perceptive player. At maximum...would a lion point out that a player looked as if they were hiding something? Yes. But if she's a lion, she'd have to think that Wilwa had a non-seer role, since the lions didn't go for Wilwa.

- #117 G55 the Innocent wildling votes Mac. Says Skip voting "Seems too easy for... certain individuals." Who had voted Skip so far? Lottie, Kit, Wilwa, Inzil. Did she suspect any of these in her list at #107? ...No.

- #118 Nog defends Skip, and his reasoning is sound. Of course it would be easy for a lion to do that, especially at a point where Skip already had 4 votes.

Page 4/start of page 5 ...where my brain starts to shut down.

- #124, Greenie of Reed thinks Lommy and Mac are more chaotic than usual. Points out a possible "your side" lionish slip from Mac to Skip. Which, given that we know that Skip was innocent...is suspicious. But then, at this point, when Skip was definitely in danger, a very clever lion could have picked on that to try to deliver Mac to the axe the next Day.
- #128, Rikae votes Wilwa, citing the earlier concern that Wilwa had something to hide.
- Nog jumps on Mac's wording too, and Mac just says that it was just badly worded.
- Encaitare votes Nog, as she or he is unhappy about Nog's suspicion of G55 and quietness.
- Eönwë of Royce arrives. Votes Skip for the encouragement of Targaryen revealing. Hard to draw any conclusions from this, especially for a later arrival to the Day. He thinks that if Skip is a lion, Lottie is innocent. And suspects Mac, Rikae, Lommy and Gil each a little.
- #134, Volo doesn't like Eomer, G55 and Mac's phrasing.
- WithDryden/Lote suspects Mac and G55 and votes Mac.
- Greenie is worried about Lommy and Mac, and slightly about G55. She feels okay about Rikae and Volo. Nothing seems suspicious about her there.
- #138, Mac votes Inzil.
- #139, Nog thinks G55 and Mac not both lions and that there's at least one lion in the Skip voters.
- #140, Gil votes Boro
- #147, Lommy votes Wilwa, shortly after Volo voices suspicions of Wilwa. Nog follows up with suspicion of Wilwa, suggesting she's a lover.
- Eomer prefers Wilwa over Skip. Greenie prefers that too, but Mac over Wilwa.
- Greenie votes Mac. Nog votes Mac, and suggests he's a lover. Volo votes G55. Eomer votes Inzil.
Deadline.

This thing is going to give me a headache. So many votes, so many people. And I want to vote within the next half hour, because I need to sleep soon lest I just nod off. I lost track of things part way through page 4, and I need to look at that again and start to read what's been going on on Day 2, but this is my list of suspicions from before I lost track:

Suspicions:

Not a clue: Eönwë
Very fishy: Nobody, alas.
Medium fishy: Lottie, Inzil, Eomer, Nog,
Slightly fishy: Nerwen, Rikae, Mac, WithDryden, Greenie, Enca, Lommy
Neutral: Volo, Gil, Boro, Kitanna, Sally

[Kitanna]

I wish I hadn't pointed out that Wilwa seemed nervous, but it seemed like a evil sort of nervousness to me.
Saying someone looks nervous isn't necessarily pointing them out to baddies as "hey look, (insert role)."

G55's list suggests that she could have been interpreted to dream of wilwa being Innocent - which doesn't help us much. G55 emphasizes wilwa unlike any other.
If Galadriel was targeted as a possible seer by the lions I'd say her endorsement of an innocent Wilwa was likely why. Though she does mention Mac and Volo. But seems like a stretch to interpret what she had to say as seer hints about them.
Though her death could have been a random choice because she didn't really mention any lions. In which case Volo and Mac look decent.


Originally Posted by Rikae View Post
Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).
Would they really have wanted to get the Hunter already, though? In that scenario, Mac might look better because she voted for him, and it would at least have been a good possibility he would have been her choice to take with her. I still have doubts about it.
I doubt they would have concerned themselves with the hunter this early. Not when the seer was still on the loose. Even then I'd think the lions next choice for gifted attacks would be the ranger.
Well, I would if I were them - getting the hunter sooner would mean a greater chance of an innocent being killed. You're right, though, in that case Mac looks good. If they thought she was the seer (though I don't see anything particularly seerish about her), Mac would be incriminated.
Where Galadriel's death is concerned I see Mac as somewhat innocent. She voted for him, but it's possible the lions thought she was seer based on her comments about Wilwa. Or if they thought they were getting the hunter, as both Rikae and Zil say, Mac looks pretty good.
However, I feel somewhat uneasy about Mac where Wilwa is regarded. Their interactions about the lovers yesterday was odd. A lion trying to get rid of the competition before the lovers get them? Or a bear nervous that a lion had pegged them?

Secondly G55 was amazingly double-faced yesterDay. On one hand she was really assertive, clearly on top of the game looking confident, smart and showing she had thought about things very thoroughly. On another she made all kinds of odd statements like all these "Lynch a lion, be my guest", saying it's easier to jump Skip than those who voted him and yet maintaining Skip was one of her candidates to vote, being seemingly serious about Lommy's random point that the first voters had always voted the one who voted before them saying she'd file them for later reference etc.
The "lynch a lion" post was odd. And doesn't scream seer at all, but rather frustrated innocent. But as Nog pointed
Originally Posted by G55
I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.
That does look a bit seerish. Which points to Lottie, me, Zil, Eonwe. Though I'm not sure when she made that remark so it may not include all of the surviving Skip voters.

If Nog were a lion, I don't know that he would have brought our attention back to G55. After all, he could have spun his wheels in the Wilwa conversation for a while, made himself seem helpful, and gotten nowhere towards lion-hunting.
Nog and Eomer could be steering the conversation back to lions in the same attempt to be helpful as contributing to the lovers' kill as well. Clever lions can steer us in all sorts of directions in an attempt to be "helpful."

You'll have to excuse me being defensive, this is my first experience being accused. Though it is still a Wolfy thing to do by distracting people with farfetched ideas that were pretty plainly taken as jokes, while also implicating someone who had voted on you.
And the defensiveness continues.

[Nerwen]

G55 the Innocent wildling agrees with Wilwa the Three-Eyed Raven that we don't want to kill the bear and says she would trade the extra kill for a cobbler if push came to shove. Later she comments on how her assumption that the Lovers would be against the village might have been wrong. At #22 there's a piece of banter between her and Lommy about Encaitare the peasant and bears which might have spooked the Lions about her if Encaitare is one of their number or perhaps made them think she was a bear-dreaming Seer leaving hint. But would that be enough for them to act on? Odds are low that a Seer would have dreamed of a villain on Night 1.
No, I doubt her comment on Encaitare would have been taken as a likely Seer-hint by either party (it’s basically just quoting Lommy anyway). However –despite my earlier comments– I find it odd that you think the villains would comfortably discount the idea of being Seer-dreamed on Night One. After all, not only can it happen, it happened last game. To us!:eek:

- Lommy of Baratheon at #48 is puzzling in her bolding and italicising of her statement about possible vote ruling. Is that really something a villain would want to say? I'll try reading it each way. (1) an innocent who really is spooked by the situation. That's consistent with what I can see of her analysis of the stats, which frankly are rather concerning. (2) a lover putting out feelers to the Lannisters. Not, perhaps, particularly likely at that point of the game. I can't see that being a good move for them. (3) a Lannister putting out feelers for the lovers. Not as risky as it would be for a lover, but still risky. Lommy would have to be a very bold Lannister taking a risk on Day 1 like that.

That statement is something that would be likely to attract the attention of the Three-Eyed Crow, and the lovers and Lannisters would want to avoid that, plus they couldn't realistically have expected to get the Three-Eyed Crow on Night 2. So perhaps Lommy is more likely to be an innocent.
Interesting. I was just reading through yesterDay, and Lommy's explanation of how the Lions and Lovers could join forces for mutual profit actually struck me as being rather suspicious. Not “String ‘er up!” suspicious, but certainly eyebrow-raising. I mean, yes, it’s something an innocent might legitimately bring up too– but I wouldn’t myself dismiss it just on the grounds of being “too risky”.

Skip of an innocent house wanted to focus on the lions rather than the lovers. Then suggests that the Targaryen should reveal...Oh, okay, I'm beginning to see how he got the axe on Day 1.
Indeed. I’m going to look over the Skip-waggon myself, but the fact is he really did walk into that, which is going to make it hard to distinguish any suspicious votes.

EDIT:X’d with Kitanna.

[Nerwen]

I doubt they would have concerned themselves with the hunter this early. Not when the seer was still on the loose. Even then I'd think the lions next choice for gifted attacks would be the ranger.
Sure– if they already knew the identity of all three gifteds. This is just like people discussing what order we should lynch the baddies in. I don’t understand this village.:confused:

[Inziladun]

The band-wagon on Skip gives me a bad feeling, was his poor reasoning really enough to garner suspicion or did it give an opening for the lions to start an easy vote. It was a day 1 vote after all, which are flimsy at best.

The order was Lottie, Kit, Wilwa, me, and then Eönwë to finish it. I think I was the first to cast any suspicion on skip for his plan of the Hunter revealing.

Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?

That brings a question: what happens if both are successful, ie the Bear goes after a Lion and the Lions target the Bear? MAD (Mutual Assured Destruction)?

I've just caught up on the thread and need to go to bed soon, so no time for a detailed response. But I do have a strong feeling that one Lion was part of the bandwagon on Skip yesterDay. In order of their voting, that was Loslote, Kitanna, Wilwa, Inzil, and Eonwe. This is mostly based on gut feeling, but I don't think a Lion would be one of the first to vote, so probably not Lottie. So that leaves Kitanna, Inzil, and Eonwe. I'll review the thread tomorrow to likely decide among these three.

I think it's very likely a Lion was in the skip-wagon. When I saw the voting yesterDay. I thought Wilwa's looked the worst :rolleyes:, but now I might say Kit. Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddie.

Again - how do we choose between those two? How do we tell? And in any case, I'd say hunting the lions is our first priority since we win once all the lions are dead. It doesn't get much more straightforward than that, does it? Unless, of course, we at some point have very clear evidence of someone being the bear and no idea about the lions, it might be worth a lynch, but at the moment, spending a lot of time and energy on wondering about the bear is probably not worth our while.

Also, the Bear is every bit as much a threat to the Lions as to everyone else. The alignment of the Lovers is fluid, and the Lions are fixed. That alone should make the Lions priority.

[Kitanna]

Sure– if they already knew the identity of all three gifteds. This is just like people discussing what order we should lynch the baddies in. I don’t understand this village.:confused:
This was in response to the suggestion the lions were trying to knock out the hunter. I'm not suggesting they know who the gifteds are. I'm saying if they were targeting gifteds, aside from the seer, they'd want to try to find the ranger over the hunter.

[Coppermirror]

Well, I've got to vote, or I'll be modfired. I'm going to bed now and I won't be back before the deadline. Unfortunately, though my long post has got me up to speed on what was going on in the game, it hasn't found anyone I intensely suspect. I'm going to have to make the best guess I can.

I think I'm going to vote Eomer. My reasons for this are:
- Mostly his general tone and posting style yesterDay. It came over as reserved and opaque to me, and the sort of thing a lion might go in for.
- His vote placement. It was placed in a way where it couldn't have any real meaning for the outcome.

++Eomer

No, I doubt her comment on Encaitare would have been taken as a likely Seer-hint by either party (it’s basically just quoting Lommy anyway). However –despite my earlier comments– I find it odd that you think the villains would comfortably discount the idea of being Seer-dreamed on Night One. After all, not only can it happen, it happened last game. To us!:eek:

It's not that I'm saying they could discount that possibility entirely. But, I wouldn't say that the size of the Inn is something irrelevant.

Interesting. I was just reading through yesterDay, and Lommy's explanation of how the Lions and Lovers could join forces for mutual profit actually struck me as being rather suspicious. Not “String ‘er up!” suspicious, but certainly eyebrow-raising. I mean, yes, it’s something an innocent might legitimately bring up too– but I wouldn’t myself dismiss it just on the grounds of being “too risky”.

Hmm. No, I wasn't meaning to say that I was entirely dismissing the possibility of Lommy being a villain. It's not at all safe to do that. What I was thinking was that the risk might make it less likely for her to be certain roles. That doesn't mean that villains won't ever take risks.

[Encaitare]

As I said before, I strongly feel that one Lion (not more) was in on the Skip bandwagon yesterDay. Loslote was first, so I don't think it's her. Wilwa could have been suspicious, having voted third of five, but turned out to be the Seer. So now to focus on the posting history of the remaining three.

Kitanna
On page 1, she only made a joke post. On page 2, she reiterated what some others had said, that she doesn't think targeting the Lovers should be a priority, because hopefully the Lovers will also be targeting Lions. She disagreed with Skip that a Targaryen reveal would be a good strategy. She also stated that work had been crazy busy, so her vote would likely be random.

On page 3, she agreed with Inzil that a Targaryen reveal would be better for later in the game. She voted for Skip, acknowledging that it wasn't much to go on, but that she found the push for the reveal to be troublesome. That was it for her posting on Day 1.

On page 5, Day 2, she thinks that the Lovers chose to target Wilwa because they thought she was a Lion, trying to steer conversation toward the Lovers. She notes how Inzil brought up that the lovers would have to take sides. She finds Thinlomien[b] and [b]Nerwen to be somewhat suspicious. She thinks Mac's fake reveal is either a distraction of someone who is "guilty," or that he's "a crazy Ordo". She says Volo's idea to forge an alliance with the Lovers makes sense, but that the Lovers are also a threat and there's no real way to make an alliance. She agrees with what Gil-Galad says, and says:

Originally posted by Kitanna
I'm waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

She doesn't find Lottie or Sally suspicious. She points out a line of Wilwa's that she thinks could have made the Lovers nervous, where Wilwa said that if the Seer could reveal both a Bear and a Lion, it would be better to lynch the Bear first. She thinks Wilwa dreamed of either Mac, Boro, Rikae, herself, or Nerwen, but personally finds Mac suspicious. She notes that Eomer's push to find the lions could just as easily be a lion's tactic.

She later talks about G55 and her exchange with Eomer. She finds Enca's (my) response to Eomer to look strange given G55's innocence. Nogrod feels suspicious of G55, and Kit thinks that G55's strong endorsement of Wilwa could have been seen as a Seer hint.

On page 6, Kit and Eomer had an exchange where they both noted my "chummy" behavior with Eomer. Kitanna reiterates that she thinks the Lions targeted G55 because they got Seer vibes from her endorsement of Wilwa.

That's it up until now.

Final thoughts on Kitanna: Although she was the second vote for Skip, effectively starting the bandwagon, I think her reasoning is sound throughout. She acknowledges that a Day 1 vote naturally doesn't have much to support it, but I can see why she voted the way she did. I don't find Kit to be terribly suspicious at this point, although her phrasing "who cares if the lovers live until the end?" is a little odd. I'm leaning toward Kitanna being innocent at this time.

No more time at present to do a breakdown of Inzil and Eomer. (EDIT: This should have said Eonwe, not Eomer, as it was Eonwe who cast the final vote for skip.) Hopefully I will have time to do so before the voting deadline.

[Inziladun]

I think I'm going to vote Eomer. My reasons for this are:
- Mostly his general tone and posting style yesterDay. It came over as reserved and opaque to me, and the sort of thing a lion might go in for.
- His vote placement. It was placed in a way where it couldn't have any real meaning for the outcome.

++Eomer

I could see the placement of his vote as something a Lion would do, but I do think it would have been more desirable for one to have placed a bandwagon vote in the middle.

What were the throwaway votes? As in, people voting seemingly at random (maybe trying to avoid a bandwagon to look better)?

x/d with Enca

[Rikae]

And what is this talk about wolves wanting to off the hunter?? *looks especially at Rikae* Whenever people suggest the wolves killed someone for any other reason other than seeming seerish, it smells of covering trails to me. The wolves need to get rid of the seer, first and foremost. There needs to be a good reason not to go for someone who looks seerish to them.


On the contrary, insisting that the lions always must be killing based on seer suspicions looks to me like driving home a false trail.

If no one looks like a seer (and why should a seer who's had one dream, probably an innocent, look like one? A good one would lie low), they aren't going to just kill someone who happened to suspect one of them. If someone looks like another gifted that's a good kill choice too, and hunters usually only become a threat late in the game, when they have some clue what's going on.

Really, all this insistence that, if lions killed someone, it must have been as a suspected seer, irks me because it's really simplistic WW. Can you imagine how easy this game would be if that were really true?

[Rikae]

It is interesting how Mac shows up as a possible suspect based on both kills– yet, the reasons are contradictory. It can’t very well be both that the Lovers killed Wilwa for thinking him the Bear, while the the Lions killed G55 for thinking him a Lion. Unless the Lions had (correctly) guessed Mac to be the Bear while (mistakenly) thinking “Seer” Galadriel had dreamed him. (Yeah, I’m thinking this out as I go along.)

Note: had observed, but not read, Greenie’s post at time of posting this.

Good point. If they were really sure, framing the bear would be the best way for the wolves to dispose of him.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Here and reading.

Instead of making a mega-post later, I'm trying to post in bits and pieces what posts made after my last one give rise to. The downside of course is that some of the issues might have been discussed at length already but I just haven't gotten there yet, but still I think a bit shorter posts make reading much lighter...


So I'm turning towards the belief that the lions were not after the seer last Night. But what Rikae said is kind of a nice possibility beside a more common no-trace or false-trace kill. Funny thought - perhaps the bear tried to kill a lion, and the lions tried to kill the bear?We should think about that.

What Volo said actually sounds possible: maybe G55's style (on top of things but yet a bit odd) yelled "a role"(!) to the lions? Like they lost nothing by going after her as it would be nice both ways whether she'd be a gifted or a lover? That sounds actually pretty reasonable.


I really have a feeling the Lannisters are sitting in the corner right now and enjoying the show.
I do get this vivid picture of Tywin Lannister watching as others do his bloody work...

While on SOIAF-ground I just have to add Nerwen on Wilwa's death: No idea, really– she was killed by the Bear, whose motivations are hard to guess at this point.No! The Bear killed a Mormont! A rival! You know how jealous lovers can be, they can stand no competition... :)

[Inziladun]

Really, all this insistence that, if lions killed someone, it must have been as a suspected seer, irks me because it's really simplistic WW. Can you imagine how easy this game would be if that were really true?

Agreed. The Lions (Bear too) obviously would have had an interest in getting the Seer, but anyone with a nervy/Gifted vibe could draw their attention.

On another note, maybe Boro can explain his vote for me? Mac's follow-up may have been out of spite, I don't know. He and I have a history of suspecting one another (usually falsely) from the start of a game, and what I said about him yesterDay was a reflection of that. Maybe it had been so long since he played that he forgot about it.

x/d with Rikae and Nog

[Loslote]

I should have more time to post toDay than I did yesterDay, but I am still posting from work, so it might be sporadic.

I noticed yesterDay that Zil's posts were cautious and non-confrontational, and that hasn't changed toDay. On top of that, he was right in the middle of the skip bandwagon, which, if there is a lion in that bandwagon (and I'd be surprised if there wasn't), that's probably the most likely place to find it.

Then, looking through the votes yesterDay, I noticed something else interesting. After Mac made his famous "the numbers may be on your side" comment, he accumulated a couple of votes. He still wasn't the top candidate by any means, but he had to leave right as he got his second vote, and there were enough people left that the lynch could easily have swung in his favor while he was gone. If Mac were a lion who had made a legitimate slip, he could well have felt that he was in real danger of being lynched - but he doesn't vote the leading candidate at the time. Instead, he gives a second vote to Zil, who was not really in danger of being lynched, which makes Mac's vote essentially a throw-away, which is not what you would expect if a lion feels himself threatened. However, if Mac had died, Zil would have looked pretty good because of that vote, which makes me suspect that, if Mac is a lion, Zil is likely one of his packmates.

I don't know that it works the other way, though - that is, if Zil turns out to be a lion, I don't think we can say anything concrete about Mac. The other issue is that I don't know Mac's playing style very well. I am suspicious of him, but my suspicion comes more from the fact that a lot of little things point to him being evil than any one big tip-off. His vote yesterDay is, as I have already said, odd, but it doesn't prove anything. His posts seem a little nervous to me, but I don't know his playing style very well, so I can't put much stock in that. G55 suspected him and might have been killed for looking like a seer, but that's a loose connection and I don't know how far we can trust that. His interactions with Wytherkins strike me as hugely concerning, since he's basically poking a newbie player until he jumps, then saying "oh, he jumped, he must be evil!" when, realistically, I would expect a first-time player to be a little defensive, and honestly, Wythy D. has been more composed than I would have expected in regards to Mac's poking.

All that to say, I think Zil and Mac look the most suspicious toDay, and I'll try to look into them a bit more if I have the time.

Pre-edit: I've probably xed, because this took me a while to write, so...preemptively xed since Zil's #233.

[Nerwen]

Death of an Imp

#33. skip believes we should focus on Lion-hunting rather then Bear-hunting.

#34. skip suggests the Targaryen reveal: "Isn't a known innocent much more useful to the village than an unknown hunter who may take anyone with him?”

#35. Lommy says “that’s up to the hunter, I guess”.

#36. Volo says, "I have a cunning plan! How about we all reveal as a Targaryen!”

#38. Mac explains in some detail what is wrong with skip’s plan, which he describes as “crazy". It is in the course of this that Mac makes his own, now infamous “reveal”. (In context, this is to make a point about fake reveals.)

#44. skip disputes Mac's judgement of his plan, arguing that he can’t see why anyone would counter-reveal, that the Targaryen would be protected for a Night, thus losing the Lions a kill, and that, essentially, we’re better off *without* a non-logical Hunter. (This last seems to be the basic assumption from which he’s working.)

#46. WythDryden is suspicious of skip's initial post, then edits this to say he has changed his mind because of "posts agreeing with the strategy”.
*Shrugs* Newbie. Who knows?

#47. Kit points out that the Bear would still get a Night-kill, that the Targaryen would have no special knowledge and that a known innocent is not all that helpful in a large village.

#51. Zil says a revealed hunter is useful only later in the game. "If the hunter revealed now, they could just bide their time and get him whenever."

#56. Rikae says that in fact (counter to skip's assertion, “pretty much anyone" might potentially reveal as the Targaryen.

#66. skip (vote-post). skip doesn’t see why anyone would fake-reveal, as "the real Targaryan would start to wonder”. Replying to Zil, argues:
Well, that they could get him whenever isn't quite true. As long as the Ranger is about, a known Ordo should count on protection every other night and going after the revealed Targaryan would be a 50/50 risk of getting a blocked kill.

But enough of that, we have to trust the Targaryan's own judgement on this.
Then votes Gil-galad (first vote of the Day)
He talks a lot but it's mostly echoes of what others have already said and he's careful not to be controversial. He argues whether we should go after the bear or the Lions which imo is a pretty moot point at present. This makes me suspect he's throwing out smokescreens.

#70. Well, maybe. The numbers may be on your side, but it would also mean we'd be without a proper analyzable wolf kill for two Nights. That doesn't help us.
Given how vehemently Mac had argued against the plan, this seems like he’s semi-caving in very suddenly, and with little cause. Odd.

#72. Gil comments that he had had a feeling he would be voted, and describes himself as a “safe lynch”.

#75. Rikae says wondering is in fact all the real Targaryen would be able to do in the case of a false-reveal, and goes on to add:
Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?
It is from this point that the suspicion starts to build around skip.

#76. Wilwa reminisces about the time an *ordo* outed her as the hunter by false revealing, says reveals can’t always be trusted and that an early Targaryen reveal “wouldn’t be that beneficial”.

#81. skip says this ordo was in fact himself.

#82. Lottie makes a suspicion list, in which she says of skip: I don't like his vote. Like Rikae said, it's a easy vote, and looks more like a wolf trying for an easy Day 1 lynch than an innocent with a genuine suspicion.

#82. Lottie votes skip.

Tally: Gil-galad 1, skip 1.

#84. Sally votes Lottie.

#87. Boro describes skip's vote as "an early random vote that looks innocent”. Goes on to vote Zil.

#88. Kitanna further disputes skip's plan (replying to skip at #66).This is assuming the known ordo/Targaryan can survive through the off night. I agree with Zil. Right now there is no reason for the hunter to reveal. I'm not sure why skip thinks having the hunter step forward is good. We have a known innocent who knows as much as every ordo in this game which at this point is nothing.

#91. Wilwa makes a suspicion list:Skip: I really don't like his suggestion about the hunter revealing. Having a known innocent isn't all that useful right now, at least not compared to how it could be in a few more days. Also not a fan of his vote, but really Day 1 votes kinda always suck.

#95. Zil (replying to skip at #66). Than again, I think the ranger ought to be more concerned with protecting possible Seers, rather than the Hunter!
And I still say a revealed Hunter would be more damaging to the Lions later.

#96. Mac makes a list, saying he has “no clue either way” about skip "said plenty, but I don't know what to do with him”.

#99. Kit votes skip. Not as random as I thought it would be, but built on flimsy reasoning. Skip has been the only one to really draw my attention. His belief that having a known innocent in exchange for a secret hunter doesn't feel right. It feels like he's pushing for something that could and probably will be harmful for the village by drawing ranger resources to protect someone who has no knowledge of anyone else's role and therefore their only benefit is being a known innocent for a day or two.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip2, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#105. Lommy makes a list, describing skip as "notable: easy vote (I feel like Gil and Skip himself are easy Day1 lynch targets because they think fast and sometimes a bit kneejerkily and are active enough to draw attention)."

#107. G55 makes a list: "skip - I don't agree with what he's said, and I don't like his vote, but I can understand his vote. At this point I think it's much easier to jump on him than claim that he jumped on Gil. So semi-vote candidate."

#110. Wilwa votes skip. "Because his ideas about the hunter were odd and I don't think they were really in our best interest. Not a lot to go on, I know, but my best hunch right now.”

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip3, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#110. Zil votes skip, as he "can't see anyone else who pings the radar as much”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip4, Lottie 1, Zil 1

#116. Iiiinteresting!

What the ??? at this bandwagon?!

Also anyone else notice that the second and the third voter (Lottie and Sally) voted the one that had voted before them. Weird.
This is where the backlash against the skipwaggon starts.

#117. G55 says, "I can see why skip is suspicious, but I'm rather baffled at how centred the votes are around him. I don't like it. Seems too easy for... certain individuals.” Votes Mac.

#118. Nog reacts to G55’s post at #107.
Are you truly saying that "it's much easier to jump on him so I'd consider doing it"?

On a related issue - I do not think a Skip-lion would have proposed openly for the Targaryen to reveal... a lion should not be controversial but rather quire careful on the early stages when the lynches can be pretty random (D1 especially).

#121.Skip is fishy, but he is always fishy (sorry! ). Why he might be a wolf: his vote was an easy one, and combined with the fishyness, it's not a very trustworthy combination. Why he might be innocent: sudden bandwagons against someone are usually against an innocent, my experience tells me. Wolves hardly go down without an objection. Then again, not sure if that rule applies in this big a village.

Of the others that have been voted this far, I'm not very suspicious of Inzil, Gil or Mac, and Lottie isn't on the top of my list either.

Currently thinking about voting Galadriel or Wilwa. Could also go for any of the under the radar club, or even Lottie or Skip if the other options are bad.
(This post x’d with #118.)

#122.G55 answers Nog at #188.
No, as in I can see where thes suspicion is coming from, and I agree with a good deal of it, but I'm also wary that a lot of it seems to have been spoonfed somehow. As in, I think the points against skip are quite true, but they came seemingly out of nowhere, making you think like you've felt this way all the time. Except that I'm aware that I did not come up with all that on my own and I'm being spoonfed suspicion.

#123. Rikae comments on G55’s vote-post: "Offhandedly cast suspicion at Skip voters, then make an unexplained vote for someone else?"

#124.As others have pointed out, this was a very easy vote, and the reasoning looks a little far-fetched. But it's also Day 1, and I seem to recall an innocent Skip being lynched for stuff like this before, so I'd prefer to go for someone else.

#126. (replying to Rikae at #123), G55 says "I think I've defended skip more than cast suspicion on him, and b) the vote is hardly unexplained.”

#128. Replying to G55, Rikae says she meant she was casting suspicion on skip-voters, but now says they’re worrying her too: I expressed my initial suspicion partly to test the waters, though I was considering voting him, it makes me uneasy when people agree with me too quickly. I mean, no one was making any accusations, and then all of a sudden several people jump on the first thing resembling a case, without any further analysis? Fishy.
Votes Wilwa.

#129. Greeniethinks G55 is “a little off” for apparently trying to cast suspicion on both skip and his voters.
(this post x’d with #127.)

#131. Mac says, "While I'm not feeling particularly well about Skip myself, I do not like that bandwaggon at all."

#132.Enca votes Nogrod.

#133. Eönwë votes skip, saying, "At the moment, the thing that stands out most to me is Skip's encouragement of a Targ reveal”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 1, Mac 1, Wilwa 1, Nog1

#134. Volo says, "I agree that at first smelling there's a nasty odor to the skip votes.”

#135. Wyth says: I was initially going to vote on Skip just because he seemed to stand out. But again, my ideas about it were swayed with how bringing this much attention to himself would not be good strategy. Or would double psychology here be a good defense? Either way, I'm not so sure.
Votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 1, Mac 2, Wilwa 1, Nog1

#136.We got a bandwagon, baybay!

But given how many WW games there have been (this must be the 8 millionth or something, right) I have to think that the villains won't have voted for Skip like that. It just looks too bad. They would be smarter than that... I think.

#138. Mac votes Zil.

#139. Nog believes there is at least one lion in the Skip-waggon.

#140.
I feel that Skips poor choice of words when accusing me did lead to the bandwagon against him. I know the feeling, I have done it countless times.
Votes Boro.

#147. Lommy votes Wilwa.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 2, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#151. Eomer is "leaning toward lynching Wilwa rather than Skip”, thinking the latter is "more of a wrong-place-wrong-time kind of villager/guest”. Is “very curious about the bandwagon.

#154. Greenie "would prefer Wilwa over Skip, but Mac over Wilwa.”

#159. Greenie votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 3, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#161. Nogrod votes Mac.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 2, Mac 4, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1

#162. Eomer says, “the Mac-voters, G55 and Wyth, are also very curious…”

#163. Volo votes G55.

#166. Eomer votes Zil, saying he is "smart enough to deflect any complaints about bandwagon-jumping”.

Tally: Gil-galad1, skip 5, Lottie 1, Zil 3, Mac 4, Wilwa 2, Nog1, Boro1


Thoughts. Well! I agree with Eomer both bandwagons are quite curious. One conclusion we can draw is that the Skip-waggon was not a simple attempt to save a baddie, as only two other players (Zil and Mac) were in any danger, and their bandwaggons (if you can call the Zil-votes that) arose after the Skip-waggon. Undoubtedly, skip did plenty to make himself suspicious, yet the general pattern of “everyone jumps on skip", followed by “everyone denounces everyone jumping on skip” is very odd. I mean, yes, that is how it works with bandwagons, yet I’ve never seen such a sudden switching on and off of mass-suspicion.

Most noteworthy:

Rikae was the first to express actual suspicion on skip, then later got cold feet, suspected people for suspecting him and voted someone else. (Bear in mind that known innocent G55 did much the same thing.)

Zil and Kit kept on arguing against skip'splan after there seemed to me much point to doing so– it was clear by then that it wasn’t going to gain any support. (Mind you skip just wouldn’t back down– people can develop tunnel-vision in such cases.) Zil's vote (or the reasons for it) also strikes me as a little too easy.

Mac, as noted, suddenly seems almost to agree with skip's plan for no real reason. Why? A baddie suddenly seeing a chance to dispose of the hunter?

Lommy casts suspicion on the skip-voters, while still leaving herself the option of voting him (see #121).


EDIT:X’d since my last post. Really. This took ages and for some reason I can’t refresh. So I have no idea what’s happened in the meantime yet. Just letting you all know.
Edit 2: clarification.

[Nogrod]

The issue of the Skip-wagon...

Yeah. Both instinct and experience say there should be lion(s) there.

Still I'd like to add a qualification to the pot, and that is the fact that the lions really need to do that kind of thing only if one (or two) of them is - or there is some reason for them to believe is going to be - under pressure.

If the lions have no problems, they normally love to make the kind of "insignificant" votes aka. not ones that lead into lynches as then they are not responsible of lynching an innocent others will look so closely the next Day (the power of a succesful wolf-on-wolf lynch-vote is exactly the mirror-image of the aforementioned principle!). But if one (or two) of them is in trouble, they'd love to hop any wagon that would go faster than the one including one of them.


Skip-wagon look pretty fishy looking at the reasons people gave for their votes, but the more votes Skip gathered, the easier it was to give one more.

So were the lions in trouble then when Skip-wagon got some speed? That depends on whether some of them had already garnered suspicion - or votes even - before the Skip-mania started.


People who got votes before the Skip-train started rolling were: Gil, Lottie and Inzil.

Of those Lottie received her vote after she had herself already given Skip his first vote. Looks the most innocent of the three - which does not mean she is innocent by any default because of the order of the votes.

Gil voted a lot later for Boro when Skip already had 5 votes - which could be said to be almost a throwaway vote, and exactly kind of vote a lion might wish to do (see above). So not involved with Skip whose death had a high probability at the time of his vote.

Inzil again is interestingly involved both in being voted and suspected by a few people - and pushing Skip into clear lead by his vote. From this POV he looks the most suspicious to me. But is that enough to lynch him... I'm not sure.

Kitanna didn't have a vote herself at the time she voted for Skip but she could be seen as one of the key-players in opening the path to the Skip-wagon being the second voter - and Wilwa notoriusly was the third before Inzil. But Im not sure how confident I am with that thought either.

Food for thought, then.


EDIT: X'd with some novels... :)

[Rikae]

I think it's very likely a Lion was in the skip-wagon. When I saw the voting yesterDay. I thought Wilwa's looked the worst :rolleyes:, but now I might say Kit. Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddie.

So, you thought the wagon looked bad at the time, and then you joined it? Ok...

[Gil-Galad]

I am here and reading, but as I have an exam tomorrow to study for I won't be as involved today. No promises if I can get back and vote. Even if I do, my vote might not be educated but another gut one.

I will never get tired of the "Gil will be Gil" reasonings.

x'd with Rikae

[Nogrod]

I do agree with Encai that Kit has played very reasonably and her vote for Skip could be one that an innocent might have made if forced to get off at that point of the game. But this is interesting:
On page 3, she agreed with Inzil that a Targaryen reveal would be better for later in the game.
On page 5, Day 2, she thinks that the Lovers chose to target Wilwa because they thought she was a Lion, trying to steer conversation toward the Lovers. She notes how Inzil brought up that the lovers would have to take sides.
I mean she doesn't seem to back others viewpoints or agree a lot but does that with Inzil a couple of times. Okay, that's based on Encai's analysis and she might have not reported everything (on purpose or without any) but that kind of thing actually does raise an eyebrow or two - especially as they both voted Skip, and Inzil was suspected & voted himself...

[Nerwen]

EDIT: X'd with some novels...
Sorry, that was indeed a long-drawn epic. (Blame the setting?) You should all just skip to the conclusion.

Edit: x'd since Nog.

[Macalaure]

Reading along, thinking along, and replying to some stuff people said about me.

He and I have a history of suspecting one another (usually falsely)That's not making me any less suspicious of you. At all. ;)

Then, looking through the votes yesterDay, I noticed something else interesting. After Mac made his famous "the numbers may be on your side" comment, he accumulated a couple of votes. He still wasn't the top candidate by any means, but he had to leave right as he got his second vote, and there were enough people left that the lynch could easily have swung in his favor while he was gone. If Mac were a lion who had made a legitimate slip, he could well have felt that he was in real danger of being lynched - but he doesn't vote the leading candidate at the time. Instead, he gives a second vote to Zil, who was not really in danger of being lynched, which makes Mac's vote essentially a throw-away
I had two votes at the time, and you say yourself that there were enough votes left that I could've been lynched. I gave Inzil the second vote as well, so it was clearly not a throw-away. I could've voted for Skip, but I didn't suspect him particularly, and the bandwaggon looked sinister. Among the people with one vote at the time, Inzil looked best to me.

His interactions with Wytherkins strike me as hugely concerning, since he's basically poking a newbie player until he jumps, then saying "oh, he jumped, he must be evil!" when, realistically, I would expect a first-time player to be a little defensive, and honestly, Wythy D. has been more composed than I would have expected in regards to Mac's poking.Oh come on. I made one long-shot comment about him - you can hardly call that poking - and he jumps right at me. I am taking into account that he's a new player and his defensiveness doesn't have to mean anything, but it still deserved to be pointed out.

Mac, as noted, suddenly seems almost to agree with skip's plan for no real reason. Why?
All I said yesterDay about lovers and lions, while I stand by it, I mostly used it to see whether anyone would react in a remotely suspicious manner. I didn't feel strongly about it, and Skip made a valid objection. Why would I want to pick a fight with him?

[Inziladun]

So, you thought the wagon looked bad at the time, and then you joined it? Ok...

I have to point out that I was the first to cast suspicion on skip, even though I was the first vote.

[Nerwen]

This was in response to the suggestion the lions were trying to knock out the hunter. I'm not suggesting they know who the gifteds are. I'm saying if they were targeting gifteds, aside from the seer, they'd want to try to find the ranger over the hunter.
And that still implies "knowing who the gifteds are". Yes, the lions would surely rather kill one of the more dangerous gifteds, but they'd have to find them first.

[Loslote]

I had two votes at the time, and you say yourself that there were enough votes left that I could've been lynched. I gave Inzil the second vote as well, so it was clearly not a throw-away. I could've voted for Skip, but I didn't suspect him particularly, and the bandwaggon looked sinister. Among the people with one vote at the time, Inzil looked best to me.

You had two votes that had just come in, one right after the other, and more suspicion from other sources. Zil had had one vote very early on in the day, and there was no momentum towards his lynch. Voting for Zil was enough of a throw-away not to risk him actually dying, but looked dangerous enough for him to be able to point to that as a reason why he couldn't be your packmate.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Nogrod]

I think it's very likely a Lion was in the skip-wagon. When I saw the voting yesterDay. I thought Wilwa's looked the worst , but now I might say Kit. Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddie.So, you thought the wagon looked bad at the time, and then you joined it? Ok...Precious! :rolleyes:

Even if you Inzil actually voiced a suspicion on Skip the first (I haven't checked that but have no reason to believe you'd lie here as it could be easily checked by anyone), this is an interesting phrasing by you: Being in the midst of a bandwagon could be seen as safest for a baddieAnd then you kind of do exactly that...

The question this is begging then is, would you have been that careless on your phrasing if you were a lion?

[Rikae]

I have to point out that I was the first to cast suspicion on skip, even though I was the first vote.

You weren't. I was.
Tsk tsk - trying to neutralize our hunter for no good reason (a known ordo on Day 1? Pretty useless. A known ordo late in the game could be very valuable, as could a hunter kill) and now making the easiest of all easy votes?

That is also beside the point - if you decided the wagon looked fishy, why did you proceed to jump on it?