Why didn't Saruman go to the Shire to take the Ring?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I was not around when this discussion had started at first, but I have thought about this problem a bit and so, I will throw what I think about it into place.

First, I believe there is lot of truth on what various people have said here, but after looking at it from all angles, there was not yet a complex answer put forth. But first, let me reply to just a few things on this thread which are of the less important nature, before I move to the main topic itself:

Originally Posted by HerenIstarion

Another reason may have been psychology - Saruman has grown used to being the Lord of Orthank with all the benefits and comforts it brought along, being even afraid to an extent of venturing abroad alone (as opposed to Gandalf who's wandering about on his own most of the time). (cf. his heavy stress on 'destruction of his home' encountering the returning Lords of the West in Hollin and also remark made in conversation in Flotsam and Jetsam I believe about faded wizardry of Saruman's who has to rely on 'wheels and chains and slaves' now)

All right, just setting one thing right. Saruman actually was traveling a lot, he visited the Shire often before Gandalf started to suspect him and before the Rangers started to guard the Shire a bit more closely. In UT, the Istari - we read about Saruman visiting the Shire in disguise, secretly, however the hobbits noticed him mistook him for Gandalf. (That is also interesting thing to consider with these theories of how could Saruman impersonate Gandalf in the eyes of the Hobbits that were mentioned here, but I am not going to go deeper into that now.) We also read there (which is highly important for this discussion) that Saruman for long time suspected that Gandalf had some interest in the Shire besides just going there to chat with hobbits, however he did know what ("just of what use can these simpletons be? There must be something!"), and that was even at the time when Gandalf himself yet did not have any idea and he really had Shire just as a place to chat and rest. But the fact that Gandalf used to visit the Shire is also why Saruman started to put his spies there in the first place.

Another note, again, not very important for the main topic itself:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Remember, that it was Saruman who is credited for driving Sauron out of Dol Guldur, and it is Saruman who did it to prevent Sauron from searching The Gladden Fields. This wasn't a loyal, trusting friendship, and I very highly doubt Sauron and Saruman went to counseling together to work our their past.

But Sauron and Saruman actually had no real friendship like that when Saruman prevented Sauron from searching the Gladden Fields. Sauron & Saruman got into contact only around 3000 TA, when Saruman dared to use the Palantír. So, their "friendship" started only after all these events, and Sauron entered this relationship with the knowledge of all what Saruman did before - from all he did on behalf of the White Council to all he did just for his own search for the Ring. Of course Sauron was probably clever enough not to trust Saruman completely, but generally speaking, he could have trusted "all right, I believe you have cast aside all your previous allegiances to the Free Peoples, or your personal interests, and are working just for me now." That is the basic way it was, I believe.

And one more slight correction:

Originally Posted by Alfirin

I think that the main reason Saruman did not immeditely go running to the shire was in its own way becuse he had made a great error in dealing with the WK, not so much in what he had kept hidden, but in what he hadn't. He had lied to the WK and he had no way of knowing how long it would be before the lie was exposed. More importantly he had (possibly inadvertently) said so fairly damming things to the WK, namely 1. that he knew what the WK was after and more importantly that, given the opportuntity, he would no hestitie to claim this item for himself.

I don't believe Saruman said anything THAT suspicious. Certainly, he was not very careful in giving the information to the WK, although he tried hard to both NOT to tell everything to the WK (in hope to delay him yet), but at the same time to keep the mask of the loyal servant, so that the Nazgul won't report to their master that "this Saruman guy's loyalty does not seem as true, Master". (It's another thing, and not Saruman's fault, as we read from the Hunt for the Ring - at least taking into account just the dialogue with the Nazgul itself, Saruman made no real mistake there.) The main thing is: the WK did NOT suspect Saruman after talking to him by the Gate (as you can read), thus, even the fact that Saruman said "if I had it, you would call me Master" etc. had not in any way struck the WK. And this is what I mean to say: Why should it? I don't really see anything suspicous on that. Saruman was merely stating the FACTS. The WK indeed WOULD have bowed to Saruman, had he had the Ring. It was not meant to say: "If I had it, I will make you call me master", I believe it was simply meaning: "If I had it, IT will force you to call me master". Obviously. Saruman was a Maia, and merely having the Ring would make him a tremendous presence.

Originally Posted by Alfirin

I think that the main reason Saruman did not immeditely go running to the shire was in its own way becuse he had made a great error in dealing with the WK, not so much in what he had kept hidden, but in what he hadn't. He had lied to the WK and he had no way of knowing how long it would be before the lie was exposed.

(...)

The moment the WK left he would have had suspisions as to Saruman's loyalty, the WK would then have posted some sort of spies, even possibly allowing one or two of the lesser riders to peel off and keep an eye on Saruman in secret. The moment Saruman made a move, the message would have gotten to the WK, at which point ALL the Nazgul would be hot on Saruman's trail, assuming that where he went the ring was. Saruman's only hope (and likely plan) was to wait until such time as the ring wraiths were, in thier searches all sufficiently far away from both him and the shire (given how small the shire was, it would be likey that without a good lead, the WK would miss it) that he could safely get to the shire before the Nazgul could catch up.

Okay, this, for the most part, makes sense. And this is where I would start: this is the reason why Saruman did not go after the Ring AFTER the Ringwraith came to Isengard. Saruman probably believed that his lie would hold (foolish one, but that would go with the logic of the powerful being always foolish in M-E), and I won't think the WK would watch out for Saruman that much, after all, as soon as he learned about Saruman's not-full loyalty (from that traveling Southerner, or Gríma, or whichever version we take as the "real" one) and at the same time he learned about where exactly the Shire is (from the same person). Mainly, I can't imagine him sending even one or two Nazgul to bother looking for Saruman, he wanted to get Baggins as soon as possible, and he did not have as many men (or wraiths) to spare.

More importantly. Once the Nine left Isengard, Saruman could not hope much in reaching the Ring earlier than them. We read on many places how fast the Nine's steeds were (I believe there is something like that about Asfaloth, that not even the Nine can match his speed? Or certainly Shadowfax). That means, I don't think Saruman could have sent a messenger to his Shire agents (like Sackville-Bagginses [sic!]) who would reach it earlier than the Nine (who have already set out by the time Saruman could have instructed and sent anyone).

In any case, even with Saruman's messenger, there was this risk of him being intercepted by the Riders: he certainly could not send anybody out right after the Riders went. And mainly, he had other problems by that time - Gandalf had escaped, and what to do now...

(I believe Saruman might have - and likely did, as he would have liked to get at least some information, or have the chance to intercept the Ring himself - sent somebody later; indeed, it is well possible - and Gandalf, or was it Aragorn? thought that too - that this Southerner in Bree might have been in Saruman's service, or at least double-dealing with both the Riders and Saruman. But that was only later on, many days passed between the Riders coming to Isengard and the moment when the Hobbits came to Bree.)

Anyway - that was about why did not Saruman do anything AFTER the Riders came. But what about the time since Saruman imprisoned Gandalf till the time when they came?

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I think we should keep in mind that dangerous game Saruman was playing. He was not only deceiving Gandalf, and the rest of the Wise, into trusting him, but he was also trying to deceive Sauron. Saruman wanted to be the Ring Lord himself, he had to not only appeal to Sauron, but keep the trust of the "Wise." And when Elrond, hears of Saruman's betrayal, he is completely shocked (as was Gandalf).

Now this is one, and in my point of view the most important point. Saruman was trying, to the very last moment, to "wear the mask of friendship, until he was ready". Had it not been for Gandalf escaping, Elrond would have had no real idea that Saruman is a traitor; the less any of the others, who learned that only on the Council, because of Gandalf. (I just recalled Ibri's short story "Renascence", where this problematic is captured pretty well: Varda tells there to Gandalf that had he voiced any suspicions on Saruman earlier, many would not have believed him. This is exactly what would happen, I think, even in the best case, if Elrond started to suspect Saruman: without an "eye-witness" like Gandalf was, many would be reluctant to accept Saruman's treachery as fact. Imagine some Galdor from the Havens, who seemed to value Saruman a lot as an authority. Similarly, even in Rohan, thanks to Wormtongue, Saruman could have worked secretly and looked like an ally for a long time.)

And Saruman was trying to look like a friend to both sides. So, with Gandalf locked up, and presuming that Sauron does not know where exactly to look (his Nine were apparently searching in Anduin Vales, still far enough). Saruman was angry, like it was said here, he could not control his lust, which had kind of ruined a good chance for him to learn about the Ring's whereabouts, or he underestimated Gandalf, thinking him a fool who would give away the information, or betray the Free Peoples. But still, he could hope that Gandalf will break and tell him before the Riders find the Ring. Of course, it was playing with time, so Saruman did very likely mobilise his agents around the Shire. However, it was not as easy: the Shire had been protected by the Rangers for a long time and Saruman's agents could not come and go as freely as they used to in years long past.

And as the last, the reason for Saruman not to go for the Ring before imprisioning Gandalf: it has been, I believe, sort of solved before on this thread. Saruman really did not know where the Ring is, and when trying to keep the face of an ally, he did the best thing he could - invite and imprison Gandalf, it was really I believe the most clever way he could. He heard (as Radagast told to Gandalf) that the Riders are out and asking about the land of "the Shire". This is, I believe, the first time Saruman ever thought of the Shire in connection to the Ring. You can imagine him: "What? The NINE??? Asking for the SHIRE? Wait - oh NO! WHAT AND IDIOT I WAS!" - and he immediately came up with a plan, and called Radagast to bring Gandalf...