Why didn't Saruman go to the Shire to take the Ring?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gordis

Indeed. Sauron trusted Saruman to bind the Rohan army, preventing it from helping Gondor, he trusted him to spy on the Wise etc. But I think Sauron realized that this alliance would not hold if the Ring were in the balance. That's why he wasn't really angry at Saruman at the end of 3018, when he finally learned of his treachery from the nazgul upon their return. Or at least he decided to keep quiet about it, still upholding the useful alliance as long as it suited him.

Yes, truly. And still, it was so that it could have been Sauron's turn now to "pretend", i.e. he could make Saruman think that he doesn't know about his treachery, which could have helped him, too. The Uruk-hai and the Palantír solved it for Sauron: it is funny, now thinking of it, that Saruman most likely had no contact with Sauron since the Nazgul came to Isengard; and their servants last contacted under captains Uglúk and Grishnákh.

I have to disagree. Saruman should have realized, that even if at the moment his Voice™ worked with the nazgull, later, if something slipped, his "innocent" words (uttered in front of Nine witnesses) would be remembered and used as evidence against him. And it was exactly what happened later. It was a pretty dangerous path he was threading.

Well, we really differ on that one, because I really think his words were completely innocent and there was nothing suspicious about them at all, neither when the Voice was in effect, nor later. However, another thing is, that he says these "Lord" things and "I know what you seek" only in version A, where the Nazgul are coming already with a bit of hostile attitude and Sauron at least no longer trusts (or rather "trusts" - maybe I should say: tolerates) Saruman as much.

First of all: why did Sauron send the Nine to Saruman if he was supposed to have direct contact with him via the Palantir? Sauron believed that Saruman knew the location of the Shire, so why not ask the Wizard directly? The explanation must be that by September 3018 Saruman had not used the Palantir for a long time.

Yes, indeed, and at least in the UT it seems that he didn't use the Palantír for a long time, or at least not since he imprisoned Gandalf. On the other hand, in the version A at least it says that Sauron learned that Saruman imprisoned Gandalf; now I would like to know, how, since nobody else knew? (No Radagast, not even Elrond or Galadriel.) The only possibility is that Saruman told Sauron himself - via Palantír (or he did not tell him, but Sauron could somehow guess that from his words, "read his mind" - again, it says in the UT that in the late times, he used to do that). But from A it looks like that Nazgul were sent to Isengard more like enforcers, possibly so that Saruman would hand over Gandalf to them and they'll handle him themselves, or to get the information out of Saruman - only they later realised they couldn't do that, because Isengard was too heavily fortified and they could not stand up against Saruman on this unfair ground.

Third. Why did Saruman started speaking about the Ring at all? Nobody asked him about it, only about the Shire. Why reveal his knowledge of the connection? The wish to impress the nazgul with his wisdom seems a bit childish. Perhaps his words (the first part of the conversation in The Hunt version C) were meant more for Gandalf than for the WK? The message to the Grey wizard would be "see I know where the Ring is, I know where the Shire is, but I tell the nazgul nothing. I can still be trusted."

Now that is a very interesting and appealing idea, I actually like that! In any case, this moment never ceased to interest me - it may be possibly the moment I love the most in all books. Or certainly one of these most affecting me.

Now the oracular dream made it clear that the Ring would eventually find its way to Rivendell:
Saruman was a Maia, he had an inside knowledge of the Music, he knew who had likely sent the dream. Saruman had reasons to believe that whatever he may do, he would be unable to change what had been ordained. So-why even try?

Well, it was a very long, long time since he went "into flesh". Imagine a human after two thousand years. I think you will have quite a big problem with still believing to what you saw such a long time ago, without any renewing of your contact with it. Saruman had seen kingdoms rise and fall, I am pretty certain he also saw some things which shook his worldview. Isn't Sauron stronger after all, and those beyond the Sea won't reach here to stop him, and in this land here, nobody can? And still, he could not be sure the prophecy is a real prophecy which has any value - it could as well be just some idle talk - or perhaps it may not come true? And the prophecy itself didn't even say much about what is going to happen with the Ring. So, if Saruman believed it, okay, let's say he would accept he cannot change what had been ordained... which is... what? That the doom is near? Right, doom of what? The doom of Middle-Earth is certainly at hand, as now everybody's chasing after the Ring and the coming weeks or months will show everything. And that "the Halfling forth shall stand"? Yes, indeed: it already happened, just as Saruman learned - the Halflings had the Ring all the time! So, really, not much new, besides the fact that seemingly Isildur's heir shall return. But that still does not have to mean victory for the West.

[The Mouth of Sauron]

Why didn't Saruman (and indeed Sauron too) not just use their Palantir to search for the Ring ?

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by The Mouth of Sauron

Why didn't Saruman (and indeed Sauron too) not just use their Palantir to search for the Ring ?

It is dark in hobbit pocketses - a palantir doesn't show things in the dark. And from afar it looks like quite an ordinary ring anyway. Lots of people have golden rings. It is like looking for a particular black cat from a satellite.

Legate - loved your post. Will reply later.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

There are two puzzles here, and I'm not sure either can be answered, except by observing of course that in The Hunt For the Ring Tolkien was trying to backwrite history for the story he wrote at a time he had no idea who or what the Black Riders were, or even what had become of Gandalf!

1). My memory may be failing, but I don't recall that Radagast ever told Saruman the Nine were seeking 'the Shire.' What Saruman knew in June was that the BR were searching the Vales of Anduin, which of course he was content to let them waste their time doing.

2) On the other hand, it's amazing that over the course of sixty years Saruman and his intelligence network had never heard the tale of "Mad Baggins," and put two and two together.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

1). My memory may be failing, but I don't recall that Radagast ever told Saruman the Nine were seeking 'the Shire.'

He did. Radagast told Gandalf:

"I have been told that wherever they go the Riders ask for news of a land called Shire."

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

2) On the other hand, it's amazing that over the course of sixty years Saruman and his intelligence network had never heard the tale of "Mad Baggins," and put two and two together.

THAT is amazing indeed. A certain plothole.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gordis

THAT is amazing indeed. A certain plothole.

I wouldn't say that. What plothole? As much as Sauron never heard about "Mad Baggins" and put two and two together. Nobody knew that Bilbo has the Ring. People did not even know that he is making himself invisible, until the birthday party (where they actually didn't know that he is making himself invisible, but simply that he disappeared. Probably, speaking a bit in the folk-tale-style, the Devil took him finally, since he was obviously making pacts with dark forces: "Sign this and I will give you fame, money and long life... but on your 111th birthday, I will come for you!" - this is pretty evidently the way the tale was narrated later, and Saruman had no special reason to pay attention to this tale than to other folk-tales among the hobbits, about walking trees in the North Moors etc. After all, he was a reasonable and educated man, who does not bother himself with these made-up tales the common folk scares themselves on long winter nights). Bilbo disappeared, that's a fact, but why should that bother Saruman any more than the fact that some random Mr. G. Took from XY mysteriously disappeared two years ago (he was drunk and fell into the river and drowned), or things like that.

[Gordis]

Saruman had agents in the Shire and was most curious about Gandalf's actions there. Wouldn't he be interested by the memorable Party where Gandalf provided all the fireworks and where the host just disappeared into thin air before the eyes of the assembled 144 hobbits? And the story circulated even in Bree!

[Gordis]

Legate, I still own you a reply to your post.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And still, it was so that it could have been Sauron's turn now to "pretend", i.e. he could make Saruman think that he doesn't know about his treachery, which could have helped him, too. The Uruk-hai and the Palantír solved it for Sauron: it is funny, now thinking of it, that Saruman most likely had no contact with Sauron since the Nazgul came to Isengard; and their servants last contacted under captains Uglúk and Grishnákh.

Yes, but likely the Nazgul who was sent to Isengard after the incident of Dol Baran demanded and obtained some explanations. I am not sure Sauron was satisfied though: he left Saruman in peace for a time, but at some point he did promise Isengard to The Mouth of Sauron.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

However, another thing is, that he says these "Lord" things and "I know what you seek" only in version A, where the Nazgul are coming already with a bit of hostile attitude and Sauron at least no longer trusts (or rather "trusts" - maybe I should say: tolerates) Saruman as much.

I think in both cases the nazgul came in low spirits and already angry, as they had just got a reprimand from Sauron.
Unfortunately, only the version A is given in full. In B the talk is much the same, Christopher says, in C it is altered - the first part is not reported word for word, but Saruman in fear admits he has Gandalf within. Then he makes the nazgul wait till he climbs the Tower, sees G. gone, decends to the Gate, and

he lied, saying that he had made Gandalf confess.[...]"I will report this myself to the Lord of Barad-dûr," he said loftily, "to whom I speak from afar on great matters that concern us. But all that you need to know on the mission that he has given you is where 'the Shire' lies. Tim says Mithrandir, is northwest from here some six hundred miles, on the borders of the seaward Elvish country. [...] You must cross Isen by the Fords, and then rounding the Mountains' end make for Tharbad upon Greyflood. Go with speed, and I will report to your Master that you have done so." version C

That is much better than in A, no doubt. No slips of the tongue.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yes, indeed, and at least in the UT it seems that he didn't use the Palantír for a long time, or at least not since he imprisoned Gandalf. On the other hand, in the version A at least it says that Sauron learned that Saruman imprisoned Gandalf; now I would like to know, how, since nobody else knew? (No Radagast, not even Elrond or Galadriel.)

Spies, I think - most likely among the uruks (or maybe Dunlendings). Saruman's uruks ultimately came from Mordor, so it was easy to plant a couple spies among them. Sauron had spies in Minas Tirith it seems - that's how he learned of the dream Faramir and Boromir had. Sauron had informers even in Shagrat's band:

`Sh, Gorbag!' Shagrat's voice was lowered. 'The [Top Ones ] got eyes and ears everywhere; some among my lot, as like as not.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

In any case, this moment never ceased to interest me - it may be possibly the moment I love the most in all books. Or certainly one of these most affecting me.

I share your love for "the Hunt" and other Unfinished Tales. Such a shame "the Hunt" manuscripts are not published in full! I think, I like it so much because it is written much more realistically than the main narrative of LOTR. Here we learn of the motivations behind the actions of the good and the bad characters, of spies and traitors, of doubts and some unsavory decisions of the Wise.
The scenes with the nazgul before the Gates of Isengard and the questioning of Grima are very compelling and powerful. Pity we see no interaction between bad guys in LOTR (except between orcs, like the talk between Gorbag and Shagrat which I love as well).

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And the prophecy itself didn't even say much about what is going to happen with the Ring. So, if Saruman believed it, okay, let's say he would accept he cannot change what had been ordained... which is... what? That the doom is near? Right, doom of what? The doom of Middle-Earth is certainly at hand, as now everybody's chasing after the Ring and the coming weeks or months will show everything. And that "the Halfling forth shall stand"? Yes, indeed: it already happened, just as Saruman learned - the Halflings had the Ring all the time! So, really, not much new, besides the fact that seemingly Isildur's heir shall return. But that still does not have to mean victory for the West.

The most interesting line, IMO, was "There [in Imladris] shall be shown a token that Doom is near at hand." The token was likely the Ring, because the next line speaks about "Isildur's bane". Thus the Ring was ordained to come to Rivendell.
If Saruman believed the prophecy, he would know it was useless to try to prevent it. Sauron also knew this prophecy, but tried to stop the Ring nonetheless.
But the prophecy speaks not of further events. After Imladris, Saruman's hands were free - and he acted.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

Except that, assuming Sauron put any credence in a lowly Mannish fortuneteller, he still didn't know what Isildur's Bane was. That was known only to the Wise, and though Saruman was a traitor we can be certain that anything related to the Ring he kept to himself and didn't share with the Eye.

Yes, indeed, and at least in the UT it seems that he didn't use the Palantír for a long time, or at least not since he imprisoned Gandalf. On the other hand, in the version A at least it says that Sauron learned that Saruman imprisoned Gandalf; now I would like to know, how, since nobody else knew? (No Radagast, not even Elrond or Galadriel.)

Just because Saruman wasn't answering the phone, that doesn't mean that Sauron wasn't using his own palantir for scrying- certainly as soon as he cast his Eye towards Orthanc he would have noticed the prisoner on the roof!

That doesn't of course eliminate the possibility of spies.

What I found interesting is that notwithstanding the Gandalf affair, and Saruman's lies to the Nazgul, Sauron nonetheless ordered Grishnakh to cooperate with Ugluk, long before Amon Hen. (T gives great detail on the actions of these two in his time-schemes: both were despatched as soon as messages reached Barad-dur and Orthanc of the Bridge of Khazad-dum. Ugluk, having less distance to cover, was already lurking on the eaves of Lorien a week after Gandalf's fall. Ghrishnakh made contact with them near Sarn Gebir, and on the 2nd "Grishnákh reinforced. Ordered to cooperate with Uglúk. (Sauron does not yet suspect Saruman).
"

That Sauron sure was a trusting fella! But then we see that as late as Dol Baran he actually assumed Saruman would simply hand over the Ringbearer on demand. Wise fool.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

Except that, assuming Sauron put any credence in a lowly Mannish fortuneteller, he still didn't know what Isildur's Bane was. That was known only to the Wise, and though Saruman was a traitor we can be certain that anything related to the Ring he kept to himself and didn't share with the Eye.

Do you really believe that Sauron was not smart enough to figure out the meaning of "Isildur's Bane" all on his own?

Gandalf: ‘Yes, alas! through [Gollum] the Enemy has learned that the One has been found again. He knows where Isildur fell. He knows where Gollum found his ring. He knows that it is a Great Ring, for it gave long life. He knows that it is not one of the Three, for they have never been lost, and they endure no evil. He knows that it is not one of the Seven, or the Nine, for they are accounted for. He knows that it is the One. - The Shadow of the Past

The only reason why Boromir and Faramir haven't figured it out as well, was that in Gondor they didn't know that Isildur took the Ring from Sauron. Sauron himself knew it fairly well. And he knew how Isildur fell. So the solution was easy.

Just because Saruman wasn't answering the phone, that doesn't mean that Sauron wasn't using his own palantir for scrying- certainly as soon as he cast his Eye towards Orthanc he would have noticed the prisoner on the roof!

Ha-ha, that is brilliant. Fool I was not to think about it myself.

What I found interesting is that notwithstanding the Gandalf affair, and Saruman's lies to the Nazgul, Sauron nonetheless ordered Grishnakh to cooperate with Ugluk, long before Amon Hen. (T gives great detail on the actions of these two in his time-schemes: both were despatched as soon as messages reached Barad-dur and Orthanc of the Bridge of Khazad-dum. Ugluk, having less distance to cover, was already lurking on the eaves of Lorien a week after Gandalf's fall. Ghrishnakh made contact with them near Sarn Gebir, and on the 2nd "Grishnákh reinforced. Ordered to cooperate with Uglúk. (Sauron does not yet suspect Saruman).

Yes, it is baffling. This part hardly agrees with the other texts of "the Hunt". The very facts that Sauron had sent only 40 uruks to Saruman's 80 and also had forbidden the nazgul (who was near Amon Hen) to cross Anduin don't make sense to me at all. What harm could there have been to Mordor's secrecy if one starry night the nazgul landed his beast in front of Ugluk's band and kindly asked them to please turn eastwards?

[William Cloud Hicklin]

The only reason why Boromir and Faramir haven't figured it out as well, was that in Gondor they didn't know that Isildur took the Ring from Sauron. Sauron himself knew it fairly well. And he knew how Isildur fell. So the solution was easy.

Did he know how Isildur fell? Sauron was already neutralized by then, and would have had no particular knowledge of a skirmish two years later- and certainly wouldn't have any idea that the Ring, specifically, caused Isildur's death by slipping off at the wrong moment. The attacking Orcs didn't know about the Ring, and in the west only three survivors brought the news of the disaster to Elrond (only one of whom, "Ohtar," actually knew about the Ring).

For that matter, did Sauron even know that Isildur took the Ring? He was already 'dead.' PJ notwithstanding, it was Elendil and Gil-galad who did him in: Isildur was just looting the corpse.

In short, Isildur's possession of the Ring was known to very, very few: Elrond, the sole witness, and the survivors of the Gladden. Elrond's knowledge was circulated among the Wise, but is was always highly classified information.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

Did he know how Isildur fell? Sauron was already neutralized by then, and would have had no particular knowledge of a skirmish two years later- and certainly wouldn't have any idea that the Ring, specifically, caused Isildur's death by slipping off at the wrong moment. The attacking Orcs didn't know about the Ring, and in the west only three survivors brought the news of the disaster to Elrond (only one of whom, "Ohtar," actually knew about the Ring).

The quote I have given in the previous post proves that Sauron knew where Isildur fell and where Gollum found the Ring. Of course, he knew it by 3017-18, not when it actually happened: he had an Age to learn these facts. Sauron's agents were searching the Anduin even prior to Sauron's relocation to Mordor.

That the Ring caused Isildur's death by slipping off was a surmise made by the Wise - but Sauron could make the same surmise just as easily. After all, he knew his Ring better then the Wise did.

Originally Posted by William Cloud Hicklin

For that matter, did Sauron even know that Isildur took the Ring? He was already 'dead.' PJ notwithstanding, it was Elendil and Gil-galad who did him in: Isildur was just looting the corpse.

Yea, we better forget PJ, but in the "Of the Rings of Power and the Third Age" Isildur says in front of Elrond and Cirdan (who had witnessed the whole scene, so he couldn't lie):

‘This I will have as were-gild for my father's death, and my brothers. Was it not I that dealt the Enemy his death-blow?

Here is how the sequence of events is described:

But Sauron also was thrown down, and with the hilt-shard of Narsil Isildur cut the Ruling Ring from the hand of Sauron and took it for his own. Then Sauron was for that time vanquished, and he forsook his body, and his spirit fled far away and hid in waste places- "Of the Rings of Power..."

I see it this way. Sure it were Elendil and Gil-Galad who had brought Sauron down. He lay there vanquished and unresisting, dieing. But I am almost sure that Isildur managed to cut Sauron's finger before his spirit had left the body.

in the letter 211 Tolkien writes:

Though reduced to ‘a spirit of hatred borne on a dark wind’, I do not think one need boggle at this spirit carrying off the One Ring” back to Middle-earth after the drowning of Numenor.

So, if Isildur but waited a tad longer, the spirit of Sauron would have carried away the One Ring, leaving Isildur with no weregild!

As for Sauron's body, I guess it had decomposed as swiftly as Saruman's - weren't they both incarnate Maiar? Maybe faster, because it was indeed hot and burning. Natural combustion-and there is nothing to loot and nothing to dispose of.

[William Cloud Hicklin]

Hmmmm. You're right, there.

All the same, Sauron waited until ca. 2940 to begin searching the Gladden Fields. Which means... I'm not sure. It took him that long to learn of Isildur's fall? Not likely- surely all Gondor's history was in the libraries of Minas Ithil when he took it, and I'm sure he had spies among the Gondorians and/or Black Numenoreans and/or rebel Umbar. Just took him that long to expand his power from Dol Guldur?

But even so, there would have been no particular reason for Sauron to think 'Isildur's Bane' was the Ring- it could have been an arrow, or a scimitar, or his horse..... The forensic investigation of the scene was carried out by the Elves, not the recently-extinct Orc-band.

How likely would Sauron have been, really, to be aware of Malbeth's prophecy? Who knew of it, aside from the Wise and the cheftains of the Dunedain? And even if he did, would he have believed it? I'm sure the history of the Third Age was littered with Nostrodamuses, most of whom were spouting rubbish.