Game Thread - WW XCIIX - The Meaning Of Death - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

the phantom · 12-02-2012, 12:38 AM

Still can't trust Lottie's claim 100% obviously, but I've finally made the obvious logical leap to explain why neither Brin nor I was chosen.

Because Elendil knew Boro wasn't Elendil!! (In hindsight- duh.)

Given that fact he had to realize there was a 50/50 chance that he was now operating without protection from the Ranger! Thus he felt especially compelled not to choose Brin or I for the dream in case we died.

And he couldn't guarantee Shasta would be the one to die. Honestly I was thinking I was slightly more likely to bite it than him, as the KMs might be paranoid about his Ordo-info power. Thus to avoid the situation altogether Elendil selects Lottie.

There are a few reason he could've picked her, but in the end perhaps it doesn't even matter at all. As I explained earlier, given the population constraints of this village a KM might feel forced to sell out a packmate.

Let's walk through this...
There are 9 of us. Let's pretend for a moment that Inzil is confirmed innocent. That's 3 confirmed. Then let's say Anarion/Isildur reveals successfully. That's 4 confirmed. Then Inzil says who Elendil is and Elendil says he's right. That's 5 confirmed. Then Lottie reveals an innocent in her dream. If they're both innocent then that's 7 confirmed.

But that only leaves 2 villagers to be 3 KMs. So either Lottie or her target would have to be a KM. If it's only her target, then she's telling the truth. If she is the KM herself, then she has to lie about it (but of course we'll find out the truth the moment we do the lynch, then it's game over for the KMs the next day).

But if both are KMs then Lottie can throw the other to the village and try to win the game for the KMs by getting the other two unknowns lynched before her.

What I'm saying is, if the dream is legit then most probably Lottie does indeed have a KM for us to lynch regardless of Lottie's own affiliation.

12-02-2012, 12:38 AM	#11
the phantom Beloved Shadow Join Date: Jul 2002 Location: The Stadium Posts: 5,971	Still can't trust Lottie's claim 100% obviously, but I've finally made the obvious logical leap to explain why neither Brin nor I was chosen. Because Elendil knew Boro wasn't Elendil!! (In hindsight- duh.) Given that fact he had to realize there was a 50/50 chance that he was now operating without protection from the Ranger! Thus he felt especially compelled not to choose Brin or I for the dream in case we died. And he couldn't guarantee Shasta would be the one to die. Honestly I was thinking I was slightly more likely to bite it than him, as the KMs might be paranoid about his Ordo-info power. Thus to avoid the situation altogether Elendil selects Lottie. There are a few reason he could've picked her, but in the end perhaps it doesn't even matter at all. As I explained earlier, given the population constraints of this village a KM might feel forced to sell out a packmate. Let's walk through this... There are 9 of us. Let's pretend for a moment that Inzil is confirmed innocent. That's 3 confirmed. Then let's say Anarion/Isildur reveals successfully. That's 4 confirmed. Then Inzil says who Elendil is and Elendil says he's right. That's 5 confirmed. Then Lottie reveals an innocent in her dream. If they're both innocent then that's 7 confirmed. But that only leaves 2 villagers to be 3 KMs. So either Lottie or her target would have to be a KM. If it's only her target, then she's telling the truth. If she is the KM herself, then she has to lie about it (but of course we'll find out the truth the moment we do the lynch, then it's game over for the KMs the next day). But if both are KMs then Lottie can throw the other to the village and try to win the game for the KMs by getting the other two unknowns lynched before her. What I'm saying is, if the dream is legit then most probably Lottie does indeed have a KM for us to lynch regardless of Lottie's own affiliation. __________________ the phantom has posted. This thread is now important.