Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXXVI Game Thread

[The Saucepan Man]

Only three posts from Holby before toDay.

Her first post is quite a bold one for a Wolf. It seemed mere banter at the time, but now it makes for interesting reading.

Originally Posted by Wolfylass

I find suspicious at this time CaptainofDespair- anyone who delights in despair must be happy that we are in danger. Also, Legate of Amon Lanc -he has not embraced our village as he is always pointing out where he came from, no civil loyalty. Then there's Kath, I find anyone suspicious that won't give their full name. And of course, The Saucepan Man, for giving the whole village food poisoning!

Legate is dead and I am innocent. I would expect at least one of the others named to be one of her fellow Wolves, which backs up my strong feeling about CoD. It is possible, however, that she named two innocents and two fellow Wolves, which would point to CoD and Kath.

In her next post, she casts suspicion on both Menel, who she voted for, and Gil. She was successful in getting an innocent Menel lynched. I wonder whether she was also avoiding putting all her chickens in one basket by stirring suspicion of an innocent Gil.

The other post was her vote for Menel.

As I suspected, not a lot to go on, but it points towards CoD, and possibly Kath.

Day 2 vote analysis coming up.

[The Saucepan Man]

Mithalwen: Holby (Holby 1)
Gil: Boromir88! (Holby 1)
CaptainofDespair: Shasta (Holby 1, Shasta 1)
Shasta: Kath (Holby 1, Shasta 1, Kath 1)
Lal: phantom (Holby 1, Shasta 1, Kath 1, phantom 1)
Phantom: Lal (Holby 1, Shasta 1, Kath 1, phantom 1, Lal 1)
SpM: Shasta (Holby 1, Shasta 2, Kath 1, phantom 1, Lal 1)

Did not vote: Kath, Holby

OK, this immediately raises my suspicions of Mithalwen. It was unlikely that, with Holby being away on Day 2, she was going to attract many votes. A perfect time to get in a safe Wolf on Wolf vote.

Gil’s vote for Boro was ridiculous, but, as I have said, most likely speaks to his innocence.

The other votes don’t really tell us much as there was no bandwaggoning and none of them were particularly safe votes. I didn’t like the way that the phantom was so cagey about his vote at the end of the Day though. Things could have gone dreadfully wrong again, and he didn’t seem particularly concerned about it. Perhaps his ‘joking’ about a causing quadruple lynch was not so flippant after all.

So, my current thinking is as follows:

Wolves
Holby
CaptainofDespair

Possible Wolves
Kath
Mithalwen
The phantom

Most likely innocent
Gil-Galad

Not a great deal of help as far as the third Wolf is concerned, I am afraid. Still, it’s all academic if even one innocent falls for Holby’s claim. I suspect anyway that the next vote for me will reveal our third Wolf.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by the phantom

But look at the situation- "or I look to be in danger of being lynched". You ARE in danger, SPM! If you are truly innocent and Holby is a WW, then you are obviously the target of choice for all the WWs, meaning that only ONE ORDO has to vote for you to deliver the win to the WWs. And so obviously, if you are indeed innocent, the Seer needs to step up.

Originally Posted by SPM

No. I am only in danger of being lynched as and when I receive three votes.

Umm... no.

You are in danger of being lynched when you receive ONE SINGLE non-wolf vote.

First, let's assume you are innocent and Holby is a WW. Now, if CoD is not a WW, then the game is over already, because the other two Wolves can just tack their votes onto you. Right?

Okay. So let's assume that CoD is a WW as well. That leaves one Wolf.

Mith and I have both said we are leaning towards voting for you. We can't both be Wolves, correct? Therefore, it is a fact that an innocent villager is leaning towards voting for you right now.

It is also a fact that one single vote cast incorrectly will kill the village.

And so, I simply must insist that if Holby is not the real Seer, the true Seer must come forward. If he/she doesn't then it is almost certain that the game is over.

Meaning.... unless someone steps forward and claims to be the true Seer, I am going to have to stick with Holby on this.

(I've gotta hand it to you though, Sauce, you're spinning this very well. I feel like Theoden at Isengard, trying to cast off the power of Saruman's persuasive words.)

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by SPM

I didn’t like the way that the phantom was so cagey about his vote at the end of the Day though. Things could have gone dreadfully wrong again, and he didn’t seem particularly concerned about it. Perhaps his ‘joking’ about a causing quadruple lynch was not so flippant after all.

I just thought I'd respond to this quickly.

You are right, Sauce. I was not completely joking about the quadruple lynch. It wouldn't have irked me much if we had done it. I know this doesn't sound very sporting, but the fact is after that ridiculous triple lynch on Day 1, I figured we were screwed except by a run of absolutely amazing luck. And so my mindset was "Oh, what the heck- let's go ahead and lynch a whole mob of people. If we happen to kill two wolves in the bunch then great, but if we don't then we at least can say we were part of a record setting Two-Day Werewolf game."

Not that I thought you'd let that happen. I didn't really trust you. That's why I wanted to see what you'd do if I sat on my vote.

I sat and sat and sat and still you did not go, so finally in the last 60 seconds I went, figuring you were waiting to see which way I'd go so that you could cause a double lynch and win the game. But instead I voted for a completely different target, meaning that a double lynch would be out of the question if you cast your vote.

And if you didn't vote at all, that would have left us with an amazing-record-breaking-remembered-forever-FIVE-PERSON-LYNCH!! Which, in my opinion, would be a fabulous way to lose. Go out in style, you know.

[the phantom]

I'm off to bed.

I'll be back about 30 minutes before the deadline to look things over and then vote.