WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Nerwen and The Might just popped in to vote and vanished. They didn't say they were in a hurry or otherwise unable to take part in the last deliberations (there were a lots of votes still to cast at the time they voted). So why did they just voted and left? A balrog would like to withdraw from the hot situations of the last minutes so as not to tumble there. So voting about an hour before the deadline and vanishing is the safe way to go.

Yes, I owe you all an explanation for that. I was in fact in a hurry, and should have said so; however, I was also very tired from having pulled an all-nighter working on a project. I think I should say here that time zones are an issue for me, and mean that I'm mostly going to have to vote either very early or at the last minute.

I'll get back to you when I've had time to read through everything.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm here! I'm here!

My deepest, deepest apologies. x_x;

I've been extreeeeemely busy designing props for the upcoming play at my college. But I'm here now, promise!

Off to read up...

Edit: Okay, after even just a glance, there's something about The Might that immediately sets me on edge. I'll see if I can get something concrete.

[Gil-Galad]

Well now i am offically confused.

Last Day Nogrod was throwing suspicion at me now today hes practically protecting me... this irrational behaviour scares me quite a bit. though i know Nogrod has his reasons that most of us can not seem to understand... i don't want to say too much about him that gives him away.

Well, as I said, I wrote it while skim-reading. And at the end of it, Gil and you ended up being at the top of the list.

I did not see any reference to me during your post this day so i don't see how adding me to top of list for little reason seems relevant... and by attacking two people at the same time, you know that is dangerous in any WW game and it will get you on many suspicion lists...

And i really want to hear more from Mith, last day she really made me uneasy...

Brinniel is acting quiet and collected today... which i say is a rather good move for a wolf and a civilian so i am rather more calm about her...

so i will wait for Mith to talk, if not then i feel my vote will probably go for her, but if she does and brings something relative to us Mac might receive it instead, mainly for being weird today... like trying too hard to spread accusations... and that leads to Brinniel's quiet defense of Mac... its a vicious cycle.

so if Mac=Wolf then i might look at Brinniel=Wolf too for trying to defend him in that subtle way...

OOC: Oh and i am not confused and i'm getting tired of every game you calling me that. i miss things yes. your the ones that are confused because you don't understand what i said last game... i'm talking serious RL Gil here. it is really getting annoying as being the confused one every time i play so if you want clarifcation just ask, don't immediately go for "hes confused as usual".

...

/End Rant.

[Naria]

You can stop bouncin' off the walls now Noggy...I'm here I will offer my apologies to everyone, but I am not going to make any excuses...cuz quite frankly, I don't think anyone really cares

Sooo Nog seems to be off on his usual ranting about useless individuals and so on. Not too surprising there. What I'm not understanding is even when people make a contribution you still aren't satisfied. TM and Nerwen are new, at least to me, it looks like they are trying and some of the things said have made quite a bit of sense.

You see, this is what has always bugged me in these villages. If one does not make a good enough post one is chastised for it? Tell me, what is a good enough post? As you well know, I for one, will not do a huge analytical post. I will not list a whole friggin village and make a three or four sentence comment on each. I do what I can, even if it means a small post just commenting. Who knows, maybe that comment will lead to the capture of a baddy. But *shrugs*, you couldn't be bothered with those types of posts right?

Now that I got that off my chest. I'm going to go back to reading and see if I can't find something a little more...hmm constructive?

[Brinniel]

Some analysis:

Well, it seems almost everyone has spoken toDay. We still haven't heard from Lhuna or Mith. Mith I'm still confused about. I'm not too worried about her for the time being, mainly because I'm sure we'll hear more from her later. Lhuna, with her single post, I have absolutely no idea. Hopefully, she'll still show up, or she may be mod-fired (it's after two Days of no voting, right?).

It's good to see that Naria's shown up. That makes zero no-shows for this game (a first in awhile, I think). Anyways, I've never played with Naria before, so I don't know her style. But nothing jumps out at me for the time being.

Gil has this style of being very up front about his suspicions. He doesn't beat around the bush, but just says what he thinks, if that makes any sense. It can be a dangerous style to play as it can turn many heads. Yet, I don't think it's balrog behaviour...he's just way too obvious. I don't want to completely eliminate the possibilty that Gil may be a balrog and let him fall under my radar, but for now I just don't find him suspicious.

Shasta has said very little of substance except for a few side comments. Not enough to know anything.

So far Nerwen's word and tone seem to be sincere. I still find her most likely innocent.

Sally's use of the word "hairy" makes me wonder: Do balrogs have hair? Anyways, I don't like how she's made up a suspicion list, but has not explained the reasons behind them. Now, I understand it mainly has to do with time constraints, so I hope she manages to find time to return and explain her suspicions before the Day is over.

Kath is honestly still a big question mark for me. Her arguments make sense and I don't see anything fishy about them. I just don't know whether they are sincere, or simply one big bluff. A Were-Kath has fooled me before; I won't make the mistake of letting her slide under my radar.

As I briefly mentioned earlier, Nogrod makes some good points against Mac. But what worries me about him is the same thing Legate mentioned:

But there is one but and that is that he can be using the Voice of Saruman-tactics, even on me, trying to rally masses to his cause. For example, picking Mac as suspect when he knows I have suspected him, and making a crusade against him.

Nogrod is always quite persuasive in his arguments, innocent or not. As a baddie, finding allies is essential and so far it seems that Nogrod is managing to do just that. Then again, persuading others to lynch an innocent Mac could be quite dangerous if he's a balrog...unless he's got something else up his sleeve.

Coming to Legate, I find his posts to be helpful and genuine. Perhaps he is a very cunning balrog, but right now I'm inclined to think him innocent.

There's something fishy to me about The Might. I don't like how he's so quick to bandwagon with Nogrod about Mac. His last post almost seemed like he was looking for his own excuse to accuse Mac and it just felt fabricated. Maybe it's because I don't know his playing style, but we cannot disregard newbies just for the sake that they are new. Otherwise, we might let a possible balrog slide by.

ToDay, Mac's posts are all overly defensive and he seems to feel the need to explain or clarify anything that has been questioned. He just doesn't feel like the typical Mac, and I find that worrisome.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, not much time, but on those who posted since I was last here:

Brinniel - well, not that I would be particularly settled with her, but she is not particularly suspicious. Currently, I have nothing much to say on her.

Kath - cannot say that I'd be settled, but after her last post I feel somewhat better about her. That does not mean dropping her from my suspicions rightaway, but waiting how she acts in the future.

Sally - Again, not helping much in my decisions. But I'm leaving her now be, there is still enough people to focus on, she can wait till later.

Nerwen - I don't know. My opinion on her from the second part of yesterDay were not very clear. They are not still.

Shasta - looks genuine. But that's about all I can say now.

Gil - confusing as always. Like this:

and by attacking two people at the same time, you know that is dangerous in any WW game and it will get you on many suspicion lists...

I believe not, Gil. It's quite normal having more than one high suspect, because there are also more than one balrog. Having always only one suspect could mean that one is a balrog picking always one innocent who seems that he'd be a good scrapegoat.
And

Brinniel is acting quiet and collected today... which i say is a rather good move for a wolf and a civilian so i am rather more calm about her...

Emphasise mine. What's that supposed to mean?

OOC: Oh, and I just read the bottom of your post, Gil. I understand what you mean and will heed it. But also note that in this post, I am saying you are confusING, not confused (anyway, how could anyone know that you are confused when he's not you? Unless you say "I am confused" we have no reason to say you are).

Naria! Wonderful, you are here. Good points, though nothing that would exactly help to form an opinion on her. Of course - from one post...

And one technical thing:

Originally Posted by Brinn

Hopefully, she'll still show up, or she may be mod-fired (it's after two Days of no voting, right?).

I am not sure if this rule applies in this particular game. Was it stated on the admin thread or at the beginning of this one? I believe not.

Okay, so, I'll check back in let's say two hours and probably vote. Probably I'll go for someone of those whom I mentioned in my previous post, though it's not necessary. Well, who knows, let's see.

[Nerwen]

Now that we know Volo was in truth the cobbler, a.k.a. Maeglin, what, if anything, can we learn from his actions and his terrible fate?

Here's a summary:

First post: Notes he won’t be able to post until the end of the Day.

Second post: Defends Nogrod against Macalaure, then is himself mildly critical of some of Nogrod's early comments. Agrees with Nogrod that Rikae cannot be gifted. States his belief that she may be the cobbler, but is probably an ordo.

Third post: Answering Macalaure's charges, claims that his reason for saying Rikae could not be gifted was, not to imply she was disposable, but to put the balrogs off her trail. Expresses suspicion of Macalaure. Qualifies this by saying that "last time I did this, I was wrong". Says he has a "gut feeling" that I (Nerwen) am innocent.

Fourth post: Points out that Gil-galad's remarks about Brinniel are silly and possibly incriminating. Defends Kath against Nogrod.

Fifth post: Casts the fourth vote for Rikae, already the clear favourite.


On the whole, Volo/Maeglin seems to have been playing it pretty safe, mostly chiming in with other people's suggestions or stating the obvious. For what it's worth, though, here's the score:

Attacked:
Macalaure
Gil-galad
Rikae

Defended:
Nogrod
Rikae (again)
Nerwen
Brinniel
Kath.

This may reflect Volo's beliefs about the identity of the werebalrogs– but as he knew no more than the other miners, what he thought isn't all that relevant. (Yes, I am bound to say that– but it's also true.)

The question: did he do something that signed his death-warrant? *dramatic chords*

Some scenarios to play with:

1. Gil-galad and Macalaure are werebalrogs. Volo was killed for accusing them. Simple– and rather dumb.

2. Ditto, but Volo was killed as a double-bluff.

3. They're innocent. The real balrogs killed Volo to cast suspicion on them.

4. One of them is a balrog, the other isn't. Any of the above possibilities could apply.

5. Volo was killed because he defended someone the balrogs plan to have lynched.

6. Volo was picked more-or-less at random. I'm afraid that's just as likely a scenario as any.

That's all I have time for now.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Naria

You can stop bouncin' off the walls now Noggy...I'm here

Good to see you Naria!

Although I'm afraid we have been reading different threads this far as I can't quite recognize your outburst's relation to my posting in this game.

Just a few comments as I'm in a hurry right now.

Sally's post raises eyebrows indeed. Brinn on the contrary has managed to bring my suspions on her down a lot. Gil's post makes me think about him as an innocent even more strongly than I did earlier.

Please people. ToDay we should have more than two viable candidates to choose from. With only two people to choose from there is a great probability that they both are innocents (like yesterDay) and we stand only to lose. Also with some actual choices to be made we'd have something to read from the voting on the Days to come.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Legate

I am not sure if this rule applies in this particular game. Was it stated on the admin thread or at the beginning of this one? I believe not.

Stated on the second post of this thread among the rules:

Originally Posted by Lommy

Players who don’t post or vote in two Days in a row will be removed from the game

So unless our Mod-God decides to be lenient, anyone who didn't vote yesterDay needs to vote toDay in order not to get mod-killed.

[Kath]

Although I'm afraid we have been reading different threads this far as I can't quite recognize your outburst's relation to my posting in this game.

Actually Nog, Naria isn't the only one to have garnered such a reaction from your posts. I am glad that it's not just me, and it does begin to make me wonder if it is just your playing style rather than anything balrogish, but you have been clashing with people. Brinn said much the same thing yesterDay. I suppose it doesn't really matter, but I think it's good for you to see where people are coming from.

But now, who is dead and what can we learn from them?

Rikae ~ It is unfortunate that either no one remembered Nilp yesterDay or everyone was just waiting for the chance to leap on a self-presenting victim. It is also unfortunate that such a bandwagon popped up because I don't think we're going to get a lot out of the voting. The ones thats do look a but suspicious though are Noggie (surprise, surprise ) because he actually says 'I don't think she's a balrog' and then votes for her anyway. So far as I can see there was no reason to if he didn't think she was evil, the votes weren't really close enough for him to have been lynched if he didn't vote for her and you should never vote for someone you don't think has a chance of being evil. Nerwen did a similar thing too, seemingly taking offense at Rikae's playing style and lynching her 'for want of a better candidate', which I don't like. There were enough votes left to come that the bandwagon for Rikae could have been stopped in it's tracks, and it's votes that are based on the idea that 'oh well it's going to happen anyway, might as well help' that allow it to continue.

As for Volo, considering he was the Cobbler we have to take everything he said with a pinch of salt. As fo why he was killed, well he wasn't here much yesterDay, there is hardly a trail to find. Indeed, barely anyone is talking about him because there is just so little to base anything off.

Now, what was the other thing? Oh yes, Mith. She really is very jumpy. I want to see more from her toDay because yesterDay almost everything she posted was a reaction to something someone else said, and it was always quite defensive. Possibly just fear of a Day 1 lynching but really she was never in danger of that so it is a bit odd. But I do thank her for this comment:

I know to my cost that a WereKath is nigh on incapapble of putting a paw wrong.

If only you knew the hell I go through every time I'm a wolf, Mith, trying to make sure that's actually true! But I'm pleased I'm so fearsome when evil.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Kath

you have been clashing with people.

Not at all Kath dear. Show me where I do clash with people. What I'm doing is trying to find anything that could be considered suspicious and then tell it to you. That means that I have to suspect each and everyone of you and to try to sort out which of those suspicions are good ones and which are faulty. That's what we innocents need to do. We can't afford hunkering down and wishing people would not lynch / kill us by agreeing with everyone else. That's what the gifteds and baddies need to consider for in the end we basic miners need to be ready also to die as that ensures a moment more time for the gifteds.

So I'm all ready to ba a lynching candidate toDay and I'd like to add Kath to that list as well. So we'd need two other candidates still. Any ideas?


Oh, yes and this one... kind of makes me wonder even more what you are up to Kath:

Originally Posted by Kath

The ones thats do look a but suspicious though are Noggie (surprise, surprise ) because he actually says 'I don't think she's a balrog' and then votes for her anyway. So far as I can see there was no reason to if he didn't think she was evil, the votes weren't really close enough for him to have been lynched if he didn't vote for her and you should never vote for someone you don't think has a chance of being evil.

Happily I got only one vote on the last minute but there were so many votes pending at that time that it was a vote with which I was securing my back. I'd have cursed a lot if I hadn't voted her and the last minute votes would have turned the tables. I've seen those last minute frenzies where everything turns upsidedown at the last minute.

And anyway. What's the point of that suspicion in the first place? Why would that action talk of being a baddie exactly? Beats me...

So you're once again laying nonexistant cases before our eyes. And that looks suspicious.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

All right, folks. As I said before, this is the last time I am here today. I consider it very unfortunate, because it seems that now something may start to happen and toDay's voting may be important. And Mith and Lhuna did not appear toDay yet.

First one thing. I was re-thinking everything over and over and over again while writing this post, and there is no time to explain the thoughts that were going through my mind. The only thing I can say is that there were these names swirling through my mind: Macalaure, The Might, and even Sally.

Currently, my most probable votes are either Mac or The Might. Funnily enough, I believe that if I knew that Mac is innocent, I'd vote for Nogrod. I'd end with Mac rather than The Might. Mainly because:

1. Reasons in my post where I spoke about TM.
2. I don't want to accuse TM without actually giving him the opportunity to react. And since I'm not going to be here toDay anymore, I won't have the chance to read his response. Mac, on the other hand, already from his on initiative defended himself from certain points of view. In fact, that's not a good reasoning, however noble towards TM it may be. But I've been thinking several minutes about that, and I must choose.

What speaks for me against voting Mac? Well, mainly I would name the fact that it seems that there can be an easy bandwaggon created by it, and if Noggins is a balrog, the worse.

There is still the possibility that I may skip toDay's voting at all, or at least not vote now and wait if I miraculously don't have chance to appear at the end of the Day. But I really doubt it.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog. Really, really... what I said... I have the feeling that I'm going to miss something when I'm not going to be here for the DL...