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#1 |
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Regal Dwarven Shade
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: A Remote Dwarven Hold
Posts: 3,593
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...or maybe the first person who speaks *assuredly*...
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...finding a path that cannot be found, walking a road that cannot be seen, climbing a ladder that was never placed, or reading a paragraph that has no... |
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#2 | |
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Wisest of the Noldor
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#3 |
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The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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Very true Nerwen. It was hard to tell whether she was a baddie or just blonde. *can't believe how lame a joke that is*
Anyway, I'm ready to lynch a werewolf. Any volunteers? If not I'm slightly reluctant to pick someone so quickly, seeing how no one has said anything of extreme consequence yet. Maybe Stan is a werewolf. He looks suspicious. *winks at Noggie* Meh I'll just go to bed and see what develops whilst I sleep.By the way, my apologies if I'm not able to vote tomorrow. Presentations and assignments due and all that, so I'll try my best to sneak away and vote in between it all if possible. Just a happy little disclaimer from a tired little Hobbit.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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#4 |
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Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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Well, here we are again. Same old day one discussions - let's hope they don't lead us to a typical day one error.
I have never understood why people seem to think of day one's lynching as a sort of "throw away", which can, at best, catch a wolf by chance. In my experience, wolves are caught as often by analysis as by seers, and analysis on subsequent days is not often significantly aided by knowing the wolves' choice of a kill. I think it is entirely possible to catch a wolf on day one through skill, rather than mere luck. A wolf usually does elicit suspicion on Day 1, but is saved by one of the typical diversions: someone who stands out becomes an easy scapegoat, even though he or she may not, on reflection, look particularly wolfish. I'm just as opposed to the tired "loud/quiet" dichotomy some trot out on Day 1's. It should be clear that such a blunt instrument basically amounts to pseudo-analysis. There are so many possible nuances of playing style, and these vary from one game to the next. Each wolf blunders differently, and there is not only a continuum between the 'loudest' and 'quietest' players, but every player who posts has the entire English language at his/her disposal, and therefore, no two posts are alike. Although it takes time and effort, I vote for carefully sifting each post, using our intuition and logic to the utmost, and actually doing some serious wolf-hunting toDay. It is not only more fun, it will give us better chances of catching a wolf now and more to go on in Day 2. That said, I should practice what I preach! So here are my thoughts: Volo's banter is right up my alley, and I'm not going to take issue with it. Macalaure - This may not be quite kosher, but I talk to Mac every day and can read him fairly well, if I say so myself. He's given none of his typical "hiding something" vibes so far. The Might - Newbie or no newbie, I dislike his "I don't know who to vote for, so I'll vote a quiet one" statement. As the 3rd post of the day, that's a cop-out if I ever saw one. Of course you don't know yet; but why set up an easy vote when hardly anyone has even spoken? As he IS a newbie, I'm inclined to view this as a reaction to the last game and nothing more -- for now. Sally - 1st post - after Might states his intent to vote for quiet ones, she has to "make her presence known"? It shows a skittishness that isn't entirely reassurring. Valier's contradiction of The Might seems too easy. The Might has taken one extreme, Valier the other - it seems almost scripted, and I don't like it - especially since Valier should know it isn't that simple (loud innocents seem to be the most typical Day 1 lynches.) It also continues the fruitless loud/quiet debate. [rant]Although after the last game, quiet wolves may be at the forefront of everyone's minds, Naria was unlikely to have been caught early on anyway. Macalaure and Brinniel were neither particularly quiet nor particularly loud, and could have been tracked down sooner by careful reading!!![/rant] The Might's second post seems newbie-ish-ly innocent to me, and makes me feel better about him. Fea & Kuru give us banter and nothing to go on yet. Volo is right about quiets being often lynched on Day 2 (usually after an outlandish innocent gets the noose on Day 1), but fails to mention that such a reactive lynch rarely catches a wolf either. The "talk" of "loud ones" on Day 3 is usually most productive - all the more reason to avoid posting-volume-motivated lynches, in my opinion. Fea gets completely out of character (or in character?) and still gives us nothing to go on. Oh well... Brinniel speaks good hobbit sense, and Kuru knows more about WWing than Sandyman does of boating. Both of them go up on my innocence-scale, however, I hope to see these wise words are backed up by some solid discussion! Menel - *sigh*. He's so often unjustly lynched on Day 1, I hate to go after him now. However, he shifts the discussion back into loud/quiet territory while suggesting he intends to do otherwise, and I can't just let that slide. Slightly suspicious. Kath - I always slightly distrust the "just checking in" post (as with Sally above.) Not a big deal, though. Nerwen doesn't say anything, really. We have to work out who's lost and who's quiet? Well, sure, and....? There seems to be less content here then there ought to be - I'm not sure, but it feels like a "look at me, I'm posting, I'm contributing, lynch someone else..." sort of thing. Sally is 100% right about what constitutes wolfish quietness. However, simply continuing this debate is beginning to look nonproductive, even deliberately so. Valier basically excuses herself from not participating in further discussion (I will be lurking around) and establishes herself as a slightly threatening figure (getting rid of the ones who have no excuse.) I can't say it doesn't look at least half wolfish. Morm just jokes around - nothing there - and Kuru is funny. Nerwen - just jumping in with a spontaneous response like this tends to look innocent in my eyes, but the content, which seems to advocate arbitrary "quiet one lynching", doesn't. At this point, Valier and Nerwen seem somewhat dubious to me, but this is very preliminary -- I look forward to seeing what others have to say and hope this post gets discussion moving in a constructive direction. Even if we don't get a wolf toDay, we will certainly be closer to catching one on Day 2, the more we analyse now. EDIT: X'd with Stan.
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#5 |
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Wisest of the Noldor
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Excuse me, Rikae. Where have I said that?
Last edited by Nerwen; 11-30-2007 at 01:30 AM. Reason: Putting name in bold |
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#6 |
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Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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I'm here, I'm here. Had a horrible night; locked myself out of the Green Room, had to call the stage manager and the makeup assistant to let me back in, turns out someone sabotaged the keyhole, so blah.
We have five (five!) runthroughs of the show tomorrow, so don't expect me to be around too much. All I can say for now is that to me, Rikae seems on the innocent side. |
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#7 |
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Mellifluous Maia
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: A glade open to the stars, deep in Nan Elmoth
Posts: 3,489
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You didn't. But your post in response to Sally's "So we need to pay attention not only to how often people post, but when and what they post"-- an argument against indiscriminate votes for 'quiet ones' -- included:
"Mind you, the baddie in question really didn't do much to give herself away until the second last Day." And therefore constitutes a (slight) push toward the "lynch the quiets" side, unless my reading comprehension ability is going. |
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#8 | ||||
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Leaf-clad Lady
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#9 | |||
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Hullo all! Good to be here. Now, to the annoyance of Rikae, I'm going to continue the loud/quiet talk and add my two cents.
In the two latest games I was first a wolf and then a mod. I must say I learned something of those experiences. I was, as a mod, quite annoyed because numerous people claimed they could not say anything about Naria who was a quiet wolf. I disagreed with them and I still do. As long as someone doesn't post just one onliner post per day, there's no reason to grumble about having no clues. You can really get surprisingly much out of just a few posts (as long as they're substantial) and even if the quiet person in question is too quiet for that, you can always look at how the dead wolves treated him/her (given that there are dead wolves, of course). I know I used to complain about relatively silent people to some extent, but I hope I'll manage to play according to what I said in this post, now that I've seen the light. ![]() Another thing I learned was that I really should drop the loud & famous people from a certain pedestal I've lifted them to. I still think it's challenging & nice to play with them and it is sad to lose them early and that one should be careful about lynching them because they're great assets to the village, BUT I think my past attitude of even somewhat overlooking their suspicious behaviour based on those things I just mentioned is just a bit ridiculous. I mean, surely you shouldn't get away with anything just because you're known to be a good and helpful player? Lastly, my tactics will probably again involve paying extra attention to those I know from RL, as wolvish as it may sound. They just seem to be the ones who manage to fool me the best. Quote:
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Now let's hope this discussion really starts rolling (I don't mean discussion about loud and quiet people, but discussion in general) and those who haven't had the chance to turn up, do so, and those who haven't talked so much (or so much of substance) would speak more. There's plenty of time, still... Oh, I maybe should add a few words about who I suspect. Brinn looks a bit suspicious with her quiet wolf -arguments, since making the assumption that at least one wolf is quiet seems a bit dangerous (see what I said above). Also, I can't really phrase it, but her last statement Quote:
![]() EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#10 |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Oh, seems that I have arrived just at the right time: something is stirring up. If I am to speak to the matter, I didn't see anything strange on Nerwen's post(s) and I'd say Rikae is making more of it than it seems. On the other hand, I don't necessarily think this must be a bad omen for Rikae: she has always been strange (sorry, Rik
) and this quite fits her.So, what quite puzzles me is that there is hardly anything that would say to me "Wolf" at least vaguely. Which is a bad omen. I know the game just started, but I am somewhat satisfied when I have at least certain outline of what's going on, and often I have that even on Day 1. This time, nothing much. And The Might, you should not rely on what other people post as much, even though it flatters me, I may always be a wolf. Try to use your thoughts independantly. That is, if you are not a wolf yourself. You could be. Anyway, let's add some more rant when I'm already at it. Menel does not seem suspicious to me, whatever was said about him. Brinniel seems very genuine to me (though I know how I was mistaken not as long time ago), but her post seems sensible, not forced, thoughtful. A Little Green's post seems very, let's say, genuinely structured, and if we have a wolf in here after all, then it's a wolf who tries to behave "normally". Fea, hope you will come back with some little more substance, please (same could be said about some others). Kuru seems strange, though I can't say how exactly. Maybe with his "ambivalent" answer to Brinniel. I picked just some examples that left a trace in my mind. There are other ideas, but they need yet to "blossom". EDIT: x-ed with Lommy. Few words on that coming, probably...
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#11 |
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A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Now Lommy's post seems the most calming I have seen here, also with the most substance. While I appreciate Rikae's activity, her list of people I don't really consider to be much helpful for us. Or: not at the moment. When we lynch a wolf, or when we lynch Rikae and learn that she was a wolf, then these views of other people can be really helpful. But this far, Lommy's post seems nice, and worth considering, it seems to give hope, though of course she might be a wolf and in that case it's a dead end track. The other post I nominate as good one, as I said, is Brinniel's. How to explain the contradictions between them is left to the good old "different villagers' personalities" thing. In fact, I like that - reminds me of "polemic inside the canon", which is quite reassuring. "Where there is not strife, there is only stagnation" (that's not a good life motto, but it works in WW very well, I believe).
So you see, this does not make too much of a conclusion, but at least something, I hope. Now I also looked back at Valier's post and let me say only that she seems a little getting close to the contradicting - herself edge. I must say I will keep an eye out and hopefully she appears yet (from what she says it seems she will).
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#12 | |
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La Belle Dame sans Merci
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^not substance^ I have classes from 9:10 until 12:30, so you won't see me during my morning. ^not substance^ But it's Friday, which means that you will see me after I grab lunch! How yay is that? ^still not^ Okay, time to admit: this post isn't going to have substance. Nor will any subsequent posts today, probably. Though I might redeem myself (insomuch as I can) as follows: The reason my Day One posts won't have substance is because I (and I always have) subscribe to the belief that you can't learn anything from Day One until AFTER Day One. You won't find me seriously probing posts until Day Two. After the wolves make a legitimate kill. Once there's something to go on. There is no way to find objective evidence for somebody else's guilt in what is basically a suicide. Wolves have nothing to do with the mod's death, therefore until Day Two, they have nothing to hide. Which means that unless they're really stupid, they're not going to give us anything to go on. First day comments can often lead to accurate assumptions, but not until later. As in, stuff we say on Day One usually makes a lot more sense in retrospect. So yeah. Today I have classes until lunch time. Since they'll be boring, I'll spend them drawing and trying to come with a decision of who is the best choice to lynch without evidence. My choice, so you can be prepared, will probably be of a villager who has historically concerned me. Whether or not the person is guilty makes no real difference to me. I'll be voting based on my confidence in my own ability to tell now or later on whether or not they're guilty. Shower. Breakfast. Classes. See you before Day ends.
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peace
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#13 | ||
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Wisest of the Noldor
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It must be!
I was making the same point as you, Rikae, namely, that we could not have caught Naria in the first few days except by chance. That does not mean, "So let's lynch people at random until we get the right one!" I'm rather puzzled as to why you think it does.In fact, I'm puzzled by a couple of other things you've said. Quote:
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(I notice you give all the jokers a pass, even though their posts are fairly empty of content. Why?) I agree with you, though, that Valier is sounding a little suspicious at the moment. EDIT: X'd with A Little Green. |
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#14 | ||||
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Silver in My Silent Heart
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As much as you have said, I don't feel too safe with you, Rikae. The stuff you have is not special - except for the fact that you were the first to bring up such a post - anyone who bothers can write an analysis on each post and sounds reasonable, even a Wolf. And this is what a Wolf would want to write, because quite often such posts bring followers and trust. Some players don't have the nerve not to trust anybody except themselves and it's the easiest to trust a person who makes more sense than others. I hope I said this clearly. I agree with you on Valier. She was the first person who gave out a Wolf-feeling while I was reading through the thread. There's not much to go on, but somehow both of us got the feeling that she might be a Wolf. The "lurking around" sounds nasty and somehow I have a feeling that the ones to give clear times when they can't play are Wolves. Quote:
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If people are unsure of whom to lynch on Day1 and end up lynching a loud Ordo, the person most likely to be lynched on Day2 is quiet. And probably also an Ordo - like Rikae pointed out - because the quiet/loud discussion won't end on Day1 but will continue on Day2 leading to none very thought decisions. Quiet players who survive to the later Days are more safe, because there will be much more to analyse about the loud players and Day3 -> is known for analysing and not quiet/loud discussion. That is just an assumption based on how things usually go and I'm not saying that lynching a quiet person on Day1 is a solution to everything. All players aren't sure of whom to vote on Day1 and often claim their vote random. I think Day1 "random" votes should rather be directed at quiet players, because otherwise they'll be directed at the quiet players on later Days for paranoia more than clear thoughts. Quote:
![]() Good point though!Legate, you make me suspect you (#33, 34) . I know you're a friendly player, but this is seems a bit too friendly, although I too would like to thank for good posts... The feeling that you're backing up others more than showing yourself is what makes me wonder. Please, would you try to say your thoughts a bit clearer. It seems that the suspicion is leaning to Valier. Maybe what she said was just badly phrased, but she's one of suspects too. #36, #37: I'd trust an Innocent Rikae's gut feelings about Mac. Which isn't saying much at this point... :/ Brinniel is a question mark for now. EDIT: Xd with Legate |
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#15 | |||
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Leaf-clad Lady
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What comes to the quiet/loud -discussion, I fail to see it as anything but pointless. ![]() Because of the continuous accusations on Valier, I read through her post again. Nothing too suspicious there, except maybe for this a little unnerving phrase: Quote:
Otherwise I don't find Valier exceptionally wolf-ish. Besides, I have the impression that she is an experienced player. If so, she would probably not post a phrase like that as a wolf. Quote:
Therefore, as for my suspicions, I cannot say anything just yet.
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#16 |
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Silver in My Silent Heart
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And it would work too if all the Innocents kept quiet. The more we talk, the more the Wolves have to talk not to show out - and that way they do give us substance to read on later Days. No, Fea, I don't agree with you - many players have "Fenris Wolf" in their sigs and that itself proves that Day1s are not for outright assuming that random votes (or based on anything that they really shouldn't be based, such as things that don't have anything to do with this current game) are the best solution.
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#17 | |||
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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First off, hats off to Volo. (Yes, there were enough "off"'s.
) I think he's making the most sense this far. Quote:
I'm not sure if it's very reasonable, but I always suspect random-voters. *eyes fellow players suspiciously*Fea is succeeding in making me laugh. On other things, I'm not sure. While she does have a point about Day1s and is straightforwardly acting on it, I must say I disagree with her style. I can't really call her attitude suspicious (even though I could call it pessimistic fatalism). Yes, Day1s are most useful afterwards, so please don't disinclude from the people whose posts can be analysed later by saying only bantery stuff on Day1. I don't, however, mean that you, Fea, are doing it, since your last post was definitely substantial, if not helpful. Quote:
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Now, I know I said there's nothing partuicularly suspicious in Fea's attitude but that Little Green (how should be your name be shortened, by the way? ALG sounds somewhat silly...) seems suspicious to me. The differences are that Fea was the first one to start that useless-stuff and ALG just followed and while Fea's attitude suits her as a person and seems completely characteristic, ALG's attitude seems a little feigned and forced. Anyway, as ALG is a newbie, I'm not too sure my points are valid. Everybody knows newbies agree with and are affected by charismatic and intelligent more experienced players. Her newbieness might also be a clue why some of her points seem a bit odd to me - after all, she does not know this game as well as I do. (By which I don't mean that my points would be any more valid in general or I'd be any smarter, just that I have - or I should have - more idea about how the game usually goes.) edit: xed with a few posts
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#18 | |
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The Sweetest Spoiler
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: from beneath you it giggles incessantly
Posts: 5,789
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That was my mistake indeed as I typed my post and forgot to hit submit, not that it matters. Just a bit of clarification. And I am being horribly unproductive. Just read my posts and am surprised people are even bothering to read them. Perhaps the next day I'll be more helpful as I'll have gotten some proper sleep. I'm already late for class, so here's my take on who we should vote or not vote (in a general sense). I apologize in advance as it will indeed be generalized and probably largely unhelpful, but I'll give it a shot. I'm reluctant to vote a quiet person just based on their being quiet, as I alluded to before. I'm also hesitant to vote a loud one for the same reason. If someone who is more awake than I wants to somehow unmask a wolf using their cunning and generally snazzy brain power, I'm all for it. But until then I'm thinking that we're going to be running on an educated guess, if even that. Do what you want with my two cents (except throw it at my head lol). Gotta run! Back a couple hours before deadline to check in.
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"My heart always cowers behind the defense of my wit." Friendship is two pals munching on a well-cooked face together. Fenris bookworm.
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