Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Legate of Amon Lanc · 02-17-2008, 11:24 AM

Oh, my. I must say I am quite trembling right now. And I must also say I don't have any particularly clear ideas now. I was quite convinced about Sally.

There are two Wolves around here still. But who now? I really find it hard to believe Nerwen is one, even though Sally seemed so convinced about her. But then, who else? If you are, Nerwen, then you deserve an applause, in any case. The death of Rikae in such a case, as a well-orchestrated bluff, and everything... But Nogrod was killed, and he spoke yesterDay about Nerwen positively. Would it make sense for her to kill him? I don't think so, unless it was a double-bluff counting with that we are not going to suspect her after Nogrod died. The trouble is, if she is a wolf, all the things between her and Rikae were a bluff, so such a behavior would go with the overall scheme. So, all in all, I think such reasoning is not proving anything much either way.

After I looked at McCaber yesterDay, I said I don't think it's probable that he'd be a Wolf - unless he and Nerwen are. Now what I am to think? If McCaber was lurking in the shadows all the time, well, why not. Shasta is the one I have probably the best feeling about. And then there is Gwathagor... well, it was spoken about the matter many times before: his "pre-emptiveness" and other things. If the wolves are Nerwen and Gwathagor, then they did really well in avoiding the lynch this far. Or, other possibility is that Gwathagor is a wolf and someone else with him...
There is also the question of the voting on Day 3. Unless both wolves voted for Rikae, at least one of them is Gwathagor or Shasta.

In any case, we should take care toDay with the voting, and this is no time for experiments. Also we should not vote hastily or jump at someone's bandwagon, as the wolves may place up a vote and hope to catch us upon that.

Most probably, I would vote for Nerwen or Gwathagor. I spoke about my reluctance to vote Nerwen earlier. I would like to hear other opinions first, and let's hope we reach a conclusion and get a wolf. If possible, all innocents should vote together toDay. So, I am waiting for your input, people. I am probably going to try to re-read some older posts still if I don't stumble upon anything.

Shastanis Althreduin · 02-17-2008, 01:20 PM

I really don't know... we have to get a wolf today, or we lose. I suppose it's a 40% chance, with five people alive.

Especially with Sally being innocent, I'm really looking at Nerwen right now, but everyone seems more suspicious than they did yesterday. Is Gwathagor really as newbish as he seems? McCaber isn't always around, is he a wolf-in-shadows? Could Legate be eviler than he appears?

I don't know...

Gwathagor · 02-17-2008, 01:44 PM

Legate, while he voted against Nerwen the day before, was very quick to turn against Rikae after Menel was killed - perhaps he is the wolf who hid amongst the Rikae-voters? As Legate points out in his last post, it's likely one of the Rikae-voters is a wolf. Is it possible that both wolves who remain voted against Rikae?

Nerwen might be innocent given her opposition to Rikae and this statement in post #101: "Tip: you also want to watch out for people whose interactions seem "staged", if you know what I mean. Wolves quite often claim to suspect one another." If she's a wolf, then she's practically accusing herself. The only thing I've got against her is that Rikae voted against her in post #261, and Rikae is tricky.

McCaber...I don't have anything concrete, I feel like he's honest.

McCaber, you mentioned a potential Rikae-Nerwen conspiracy back in post #343, and the idea has been brought up a couple of other times. Do you have any more thoughts on the possibility?

Now Shasta, if a wolf, would be the proverbial wolf-in-the-shadows, suspicious primarily because of his lack of strong opinion one way or the other, which looks like an attempt to stay on everyone's good side. There's also LG's post #339, which points out the most suspicious thing Shastanis has done thus far, that is, voting for Nerwen while professing to suspect Rikae. Of course, you wouldn't expect ALL the wolves to vote for Rikae. He has said some stuff that sounds innocent, but Nogrod, too, suspected him (post #344) based on his Nerwen vote.

Based on all that and a great deal of instinct (human instinct!), I suspect Legate and Shasta of being the two remaining wolves. Nerwen and McCaber are innocent.

Gwathagor · 02-17-2008, 02:17 PM

There is one other thing I am curious about, in addition to the possibility of a Nerwen-Rikae plot, and that is the idea that Menel may have dreamed about Shasta. Does anybody find this likely? It's been mentioned a couple times, and I'm just wondering where it came from and if it has any credibility. As Shasta pointed out, we'd better get a wolf today or it's taps for the good guys.

Legate of Amon Lanc · 02-17-2008, 02:30 PM

Good to see someone posting. Well, I did not have much time, and not that I would stumble upon much that would help me. I at least looked at the voting records and when I wrote them next to each other in Excel, I really fully realised how it looks like when we have two Day 3 Nerwen-voters among us. It indeed looks improbable that there won't be at least one Wolf among them, and as I said, I am more inclined to think that it is Gwathagor than Shasta (when of course, they may be both still).

However, there's another thing I thought about, and that is if Gwath is a Wolf and Nerwen is as well, what sense it would have for Gwath to vote Nerwen on Day 3. He won't vote Rikae, and therefore seem suspicious (well, if she was lynched; but if he voted her, she most probably will), but even voting Nerwen would be voting for a fellow Wolf - thus, no gain either. The only explanation could be that he used this opportunity to safely vote for a fellow wolf. Well, which is also possible, eventually.

I will go to sleep soon, so hope that everyone will show up meanwhile, and I hope to sort my thoughts also. I would prefer to vote then, as a last-minute voting fray at DL is the last thing we need under these circumstances.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Legate, while he voted against Nerwen the day before, was very quick to turn against Rikae after Menel was killed - perhaps he is the wolf who hid amongst the Rikae-voters? As Legate points out in his last post, it's likely one of the Rikae-voters is a wolf. Is it possible that both wolves who remain voted against Rikae?

Gwath, a correction - I never voted Nerwen! And I also didn't say that there is likely at least one wolf among Rikae-voters, but I said there is probably at least one wolf among the people who voted Nerwen.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gwath

There is one other thing I am curious about, in addition to the possibility of a Nerwen-Rikae plot, and that is the idea that Menel may have dreamed about Shasta. Does anybody find this likely? It's been mentioned a couple times, and I'm just wondering where it came from and if it has any credibility.

At least I said that I find it likely, and I believe someone else did as well (Sally? I don't know) and it was based on the conclusion that Menel suspected Shasta on Day 1 and he did not mention him later. Nogrod proposed the other thing, that Menel dreamt of him. I think both are equally possible, and in any case, we know Nogrod was innocent now.

Gwathagor · 02-17-2008, 02:45 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Gwath, a correction - I never voted Nerwen! And I also didn't say that there is likely at least one wolf among Rikae-voters, but I said there is probably at least one wolf among the people who voted Nerwen.

Oh. Sorry. I understood this part: "Unless both wolves voted for Rikae, at least one of them is Gwathagor or Shasta" to mean that you thought that at least one of the Rikae-voters is a wolf. Anyway, if you find it likely that ONE of the wolves voted for Nerwen, then it's logical that ONE voted for Rikae as well.

And it seems I just imagined your vote for Nerwen. I guess I'm getting ahead of myself here...attribute it to my Irish rashness.

Legate of Amon Lanc · 02-17-2008, 03:07 PM

Well, seems at least all but one of us have posted - good. I would really like to see Nerwen post, but who knows what time it is at her.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Oh. Sorry. I understood this part: "Unless both wolves voted for Rikae, at least one of them is Gwathagor or Shasta" to mean that you thought that at least one of the Rikae-voters is a wolf. Anyway, if you find it likely that ONE of the wolves voted for Nerwen, then it's logical that ONE voted for Rikae as well.

By saying "at least" meant at least one, maybe two (though I think rather just one). Cf. my post above.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gwath

Legate, could you post the voting records together in one post so we could all compare them?

Yup, of course - here:

McCaber
Day 1 no vote
Day 2 Nerwen (after DL)
Day 3 Rikae
Day 4 Nerwen

Nerwen
Day 1 no vote
Day 2 Mac
Day 3 Rikae
Day 4 Sally

Shasta
Day 1 Menel
Day 2 no vote? I was running around the thread for about 10 minutes and not been able to find it.
Day 3 Nerwen
Day 4 Nerwen

Gwathagor
Day 1 Aganzir
Day 2 Sally
Day 3 Nerwen
Day 4 Sally

Legate
Day 1 Sally
Day 2 Mac
Day 3 Rikae
Day 4 Sally

Anyway - I am going to sleep now. Even after reading toDay, I am most leaning towards Gwath or Nerwen (I want to see her post in any case). McCaber and Shasta will be very "random" from my point of view. But I hope that at least one of the two I named first it is. Of course we have to pick just one, and that's the real trick. Well, goodbye for now. See you in some 9 or so hours.

Gwathagor · 02-17-2008, 02:51 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

At least I said that I find it likely, and I believe someone else did as well (Sally? I don't know) and it was based on the conclusion that Menel suspected Shasta on Day 1 and he did not mention him later.

Example of Legate trying to innocuously establish his fellow wolf's innocence? The Seer is as incontrovertible as they come...though Legate does point out that Menel may have dreamt of Nogrod as well. Of course, it would look funny if he was too single-minded in his assertion of Shasta's innocence...

Gwathagor · 02-17-2008, 02:53 PM

Triple post.

Legate, could you post the voting records together in one post so we could all compare them?

McCaber · 02-17-2008, 02:31 PM

Ordinarily, this is where I'd rail against Nerwen and say something about burning the heretic, but even I'm beginning to have some doubts.

I still suspect Nerwen, but the circumstances make me think thrice before I do anything serious.

Gwath plays very well in parts, but at other times he makes elementary mistakes. I'm inclined to think he's just newbish, but he's been newbish at the most inappropriate times.

Shasta, even more than myself, has been the quiet one. He's been there when it matters, but he has not contributed enough. (heh, like I'm the one to be saying that. It's still true, though.)

After a close look at Legate on the last Night, I think that he has had his suspicious moments, but the man looks honest enough to me.

02-17-2008, 02:17 PM	#4
Gwathagor Shade with a Blade Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: A Rainy Night In Soho Posts: 2,512	There is one other thing I am curious about, in addition to the possibility of a Nerwen-Rikae plot, and that is the idea that Menel may have dreamed about Shasta. Does anybody find this likely? It's been mentioned a couple times, and I'm just wondering where it came from and if it has any credibility. As Shasta pointed out, we'd better get a wolf today or it's taps for the good guys. __________________ Stories and songs.

02-17-2008, 02:53 PM	#9
Gwathagor Shade with a Blade Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: A Rainy Night In Soho Posts: 2,512	Triple post. Legate, could you post the voting records together in one post so we could all compare them? __________________ Stories and songs.

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02-17-2008, 11:24 AM	#1
Legate of Amon Lanc A Voice That Gainsayeth Join Date: Nov 2006 Location: In that far land beyond the Sea Posts: 7,431	Oh, my. I must say I am quite trembling right now. And I must also say I don't have any particularly clear ideas now. I was quite convinced about Sally. There are two Wolves around here still. But who now? I really find it hard to believe Nerwen is one, even though Sally seemed so convinced about her. But then, who else? If you are, Nerwen, then you deserve an applause, in any case. The death of Rikae in such a case, as a well-orchestrated bluff, and everything... But Nogrod was killed, and he spoke yesterDay about Nerwen positively. Would it make sense for her to kill him? I don't think so, unless it was a double-bluff counting with that we are not going to suspect her after Nogrod died. The trouble is, if she is a wolf, all the things between her and Rikae were a bluff, so such a behavior would go with the overall scheme. So, all in all, I think such reasoning is not proving anything much either way. After I looked at McCaber yesterDay, I said I don't think it's probable that he'd be a Wolf - unless he and Nerwen are. Now what I am to think? If McCaber was lurking in the shadows all the time, well, why not. Shasta is the one I have probably the best feeling about. And then there is Gwathagor... well, it was spoken about the matter many times before: his "pre-emptiveness" and other things. If the wolves are Nerwen and Gwathagor, then they did really well in avoiding the lynch this far. Or, other possibility is that Gwathagor is a wolf and someone else with him... There is also the question of the voting on Day 3. Unless both wolves voted for Rikae, at least one of them is Gwathagor or Shasta. In any case, we should take care toDay with the voting, and this is no time for experiments. Also we should not vote hastily or jump at someone's bandwagon, as the wolves may place up a vote and hope to catch us upon that. Most probably, I would vote for Nerwen or Gwathagor. I spoke about my reluctance to vote Nerwen earlier. I would like to hear other opinions first, and let's hope we reach a conclusion and get a wolf. If possible, all innocents should vote together toDay. So, I am waiting for your input, people. I am probably going to try to re-read some older posts still if I don't stumble upon anything. __________________ "Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories

02-17-2008, 01:20 PM	#2
Shastanis Althreduin Werewolf Psychic Join Date: Apr 2007 Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water. Posts: 2,832	I really don't know... we have to get a wolf today, or we lose. I suppose it's a 40% chance, with five people alive. Especially with Sally being innocent, I'm really looking at Nerwen right now, but everyone seems more suspicious than they did yesterday. Is Gwathagor really as newbish as he seems? McCaber isn't always around, is he a wolf-in-shadows? Could Legate be eviler than he appears? I don't know...

02-17-2008, 01:44 PM	#3
Gwathagor Shade with a Blade Join Date: Aug 2007 Location: A Rainy Night In Soho Posts: 2,512	Legate, while he voted against Nerwen the day before, was very quick to turn against Rikae after Menel was killed - perhaps he is the wolf who hid amongst the Rikae-voters? As Legate points out in his last post, it's likely one of the Rikae-voters is a wolf. Is it possible that both wolves who remain voted against Rikae? Nerwen might be innocent given her opposition to Rikae and this statement in post #101: "Tip: you also want to watch out for people whose interactions seem "staged", if you know what I mean. Wolves quite often claim to suspect one another." If she's a wolf, then she's practically accusing herself. The only thing I've got against her is that Rikae voted against her in post #261, and Rikae is tricky. McCaber...I don't have anything concrete, I feel like he's honest. McCaber, you mentioned a potential Rikae-Nerwen conspiracy back in post #343, and the idea has been brought up a couple of other times. Do you have any more thoughts on the possibility? Now Shasta, if a wolf, would be the proverbial wolf-in-the-shadows, suspicious primarily because of his lack of strong opinion one way or the other, which looks like an attempt to stay on everyone's good side. There's also LG's post #339, which points out the most suspicious thing Shastanis has done thus far, that is, voting for Nerwen while professing to suspect Rikae. Of course, you wouldn't expect ALL the wolves to vote for Rikae. He has said some stuff that sounds innocent, but Nogrod, too, suspected him (post #344) based on his Nerwen vote. Based on all that and a great deal of instinct (human instinct!), I suspect Legate and Shasta of being the two remaining wolves. Nerwen and McCaber are innocent. __________________ Stories and songs.

02-17-2008, 02:31 PM	#10
McCaber Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Nov 2007 Location: Skyrim, again. Posts: 820	Ordinarily, this is where I'd rail against Nerwen and say something about burning the heretic, but even I'm beginning to have some doubts. I still suspect Nerwen, but the circumstances make me think thrice before I do anything serious. Gwath plays very well in parts, but at other times he makes elementary mistakes. I'm inclined to think he's just newbish, but he's been newbish at the most inappropriate times. Shasta, even more than myself, has been the quiet one. He's been there when it matters, but he has not contributed enough. (heh, like I'm the one to be saying that. It's still true, though.) After a close look at Legate on the last Night, I think that he has had his suspicious moments, but the man looks honest enough to me. __________________ Werewolves vs. Fishmen. The battle of the century.