Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hmm. After this last post of Gwath's, I'm fairly confident that Nerwen and Gwath are our wolves, but I'm hesitant to vote...

[Gwathagor]

Ok, let's see if I can remember all this.

I think that Legate and Shasta are the guilty parties.

First, at least one of the Rikae voters has to be a wolf. In my opinion, Legate is more suspicious than Nerwen and McCaber, because of how little controversy he has caused or been involved in. I also do not trust Legate because he accuses everybody and nobody; his posts tend to be feel-good and safe. Post #401 is a good example. He mentions just about everyone, attaches a medium-sized portion of suspicion to those he mentions, and then proceeds to go with the flow when it comes time to vote.

Second, at least one of those who voted for Nerwen, rather than Rikae, is probably a wolf as well...which means that it must be Shasta. Shasta, like Legate, hasn't done much either to vindicate or condemn himself throughout this whole game. LG and Nogrod, in posts #339 and #344, respectively, identified Shasta's vote for Nerwen as wolfish, given his professed suspicion of Rikae.

Third, comments by Shasta (in post #384) and Legate (in his last post) in my opinion exclude the possibility that either both Legate and Nerwen or both Shasta and Nerwen could be wolves. McCaber is the other guy, and he seems more innocent than any of us, which leaves Nerwen with no possible compatriots (apart from myself, I know, I know), which means that Legate and Shasta must be wolves.

Fourth, Rikae, in post #177, listed players according to how suspicious she was of them. Neither Legate nor Shasta were listed under her Unwolfy category. They were also listed under separate categories. This is not hard evidence, but it would corroborate the idea that Shasta and Legate are Rikae's fellow wolves since Rikae would neither want to draw attention to them by listing both as Unwolfy, nor by listing them under the same category. Instead, she played it safe by making Legate Wolfyest (together with LG and Nerwen) and Shasta Wolfy. No one cares about the Wolfy category (it's too ordinary...everybody thinks everyone else is at least a little Wolfy) and there wasn't any substantial suspicion directed at Legate, so making him Wolfyest was also safe.

Fifth, in post #405 it looks like Legate is stretching the business of the Seer in an attempt to clear Shasta's name. This is a weaker point than some of my others, but it fits if I'm right on the other bits.

That's the best I can do for now. The trouble is, both Legate and Shasta have said very little of great substance during this game.

[Nerwen]

Problem, Gwathagor:

Your fourth and fifth points are worth looking into, but this piece of reasoning

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

First, at least one of the Rikae voters has to be a wolf.

and this one

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Second, at least one of those who voted for Nerwen, rather than Rikae, is probably a wolf as well...which means that it must be Shasta.

seem to be based purely on your knowledge of your own innocence. No ordo knows your role.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Third, comments by Shasta (in post #384) and Legate (in his last post) in my opinion exclude the possibility that either both Legate and Nerwen or both Shasta and Nerwen could be wolves.

Why?

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Problem, Gwathagor...seem to be based purely on your knowledge of your own innocence. No ordo knows your role.

Yes. That is true. It is the only concrete thing I have to go on. Not everyone is likely to accept it, but I'm hoping my consistent reasoning will maybe win people over.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Why?

Because both posts involve strong comments/suspicions/accusations by Legate and Shasta concerning you, which, were two of you (you and one of them) wolves, would be foolish to make at this late and unforgiving stage of the game. Far too dangerous.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Gwath looks very active toDay, raising suspicions on people all around, which supports my suspicions of him.

Not so. I suspect you,(Legate) and Shasta.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Right now I think him more wolfy than Nerwen (I should say "more apparently wolfy"), but Nerwen is likely to be one as well. The trouble is, as I said, that if one of them isn't, and we choose the wrong one... well.

I've already explained, in post #427, why Nerwen and I can't both be wolves, in answer to Shasta's suggestion of that possibility.

NOW goodnight. Seriously.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I've already explained, in post #427, why Nerwen and I can't both be wolves, in answer to Shasta's suggestion of that possibility.

Well, if you look up I wrote about it as well - but I also said that technically, you may have voted for Nerwen back then so that you are not suspected in the future. Which is just what you are saying to us now. There is the thing you voted Sally yesterDay, and not Nerwen anymore. If you suspected her, why not vote her also the Day after? Instead, you joined the village "bandwagon" - and it may be that you avoided endangering a fellow Wolf then. Of course, it's only a theory. But remember that if we get a wolf toDay, there will be also one more toMorrow. We cannot rule out any possibility.

But the question at hand is toDay's lynch. I don't really think Shasta and McCaber are wolves together. At least one of Nerwen and Gwath is likely a wolf. If Nerwen is innocent, then Gwath as a Nerwen-voter most probably is one. Well, that's probably the best I can come up with. I think Gwath is the most probable... But we cannot afford mistakes; what do you others think?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I was slightly suspecting him even yesterDay, on this "pre-emptiveness" of him, only I still suspected Sally yesterDay, so I let him go for the time. ToDay however, we have a Wolf or nothing, and also by elimination method, it's you or him. Or both, in the best case.

Legate– I understand your position on Gwathagor– but if you are innocent, please rethink on Shasta and McCaber. They seem, if anything, more wolfish to me than he does. I don't see how you can say they’re eliminated.

Gwathagor, similarly– please remember that while Legate is clever enough to be a very dangerous wolf, there's little or no concrete evidence against him. He’s certainly not a “safe” vote, as you seem to think.

Edit: word left out.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Hmm. After this last post of Gwath's, I'm fairly confident that Nerwen and Gwath are our wolves, but I'm hesitant to vote...

Wait...if I am a wolf, and so is Nerwen, then how do you figure out our voting habits? Why would I, who really went after Rikae until her brilliant "breakdown" (still sore about that...), switch my vote and try to kill Nerwen, who, according to your scheme, is also a wolf? If I was trying to prevent Rikae's death, then I would vote for someone else who WASN'T a wolf. As it was, Nerwen nearly got hanged the day before and it was very close on Day 3 as well. I surely would have recognized that the anti-Nerwen sentiment hadn't gone away, and killing one wolf to save another doesn't make sense, especially since Rikae was in such dire straits; if I was trying to save her, then the only thing I have accomplished is making myself look wolfish by association. Had I been successful in trying to save Rikae, then Nerwen would have been hanged, and Rikae would have been hanged the next day. I'd be a stupid, lonely wolf.

[Gwathagor]

Laying cards on the table:

I am going to sleep now. When I wake up, I am either going to vote for Shasta or Legate. I don't care which, but one of them had better get three votes by the deadline.

Goodnight everybody.