Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Good to see someone posting. Well, I did not have much time, and not that I would stumble upon much that would help me. I at least looked at the voting records and when I wrote them next to each other in Excel, I really fully realised how it looks like when we have two Day 3 Nerwen-voters among us. It indeed looks improbable that there won't be at least one Wolf among them, and as I said, I am more inclined to think that it is Gwathagor than Shasta (when of course, they may be both still).

However, there's another thing I thought about, and that is if Gwath is a Wolf and Nerwen is as well, what sense it would have for Gwath to vote Nerwen on Day 3. He won't vote Rikae, and therefore seem suspicious (well, if she was lynched; but if he voted her, she most probably will), but even voting Nerwen would be voting for a fellow Wolf - thus, no gain either. The only explanation could be that he used this opportunity to safely vote for a fellow wolf. Well, which is also possible, eventually.

I will go to sleep soon, so hope that everyone will show up meanwhile, and I hope to sort my thoughts also. I would prefer to vote then, as a last-minute voting fray at DL is the last thing we need under these circumstances.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Legate, while he voted against Nerwen the day before, was very quick to turn against Rikae after Menel was killed - perhaps he is the wolf who hid amongst the Rikae-voters? As Legate points out in his last post, it's likely one of the Rikae-voters is a wolf. Is it possible that both wolves who remain voted against Rikae?

Gwath, a correction - I never voted Nerwen! And I also didn't say that there is likely at least one wolf among Rikae-voters, but I said there is probably at least one wolf among the people who voted Nerwen.

Originally Posted by Gwath

There is one other thing I am curious about, in addition to the possibility of a Nerwen-Rikae plot, and that is the idea that Menel may have dreamed about Shasta. Does anybody find this likely? It's been mentioned a couple times, and I'm just wondering where it came from and if it has any credibility.

At least I said that I find it likely, and I believe someone else did as well (Sally? I don't know) and it was based on the conclusion that Menel suspected Shasta on Day 1 and he did not mention him later. Nogrod proposed the other thing, that Menel dreamt of him. I think both are equally possible, and in any case, we know Nogrod was innocent now.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Gwath, a correction - I never voted Nerwen! And I also didn't say that there is likely at least one wolf among Rikae-voters, but I said there is probably at least one wolf among the people who voted Nerwen.

Oh. Sorry. I understood this part: "Unless both wolves voted for Rikae, at least one of them is Gwathagor or Shasta" to mean that you thought that at least one of the Rikae-voters is a wolf. Anyway, if you find it likely that ONE of the wolves voted for Nerwen, then it's logical that ONE voted for Rikae as well.

And it seems I just imagined your vote for Nerwen. I guess I'm getting ahead of myself here...attribute it to my Irish rashness.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, seems at least all but one of us have posted - good. I would really like to see Nerwen post, but who knows what time it is at her.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Oh. Sorry. I understood this part: "Unless both wolves voted for Rikae, at least one of them is Gwathagor or Shasta" to mean that you thought that at least one of the Rikae-voters is a wolf. Anyway, if you find it likely that ONE of the wolves voted for Nerwen, then it's logical that ONE voted for Rikae as well.

By saying "at least" meant at least one, maybe two (though I think rather just one). Cf. my post above.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Legate, could you post the voting records together in one post so we could all compare them?

Yup, of course - here:

McCaber
Day 1 no vote
Day 2 Nerwen (after DL)
Day 3 Rikae
Day 4 Nerwen

Nerwen
Day 1 no vote
Day 2 Mac
Day 3 Rikae
Day 4 Sally

Shasta
Day 1 Menel
Day 2 no vote? I was running around the thread for about 10 minutes and not been able to find it.
Day 3 Nerwen
Day 4 Nerwen

Gwathagor
Day 1 Aganzir
Day 2 Sally
Day 3 Nerwen
Day 4 Sally

Legate
Day 1 Sally
Day 2 Mac
Day 3 Rikae
Day 4 Sally

Anyway - I am going to sleep now. Even after reading toDay, I am most leaning towards Gwath or Nerwen (I want to see her post in any case). McCaber and Shasta will be very "random" from my point of view. But I hope that at least one of the two I named first it is. Of course we have to pick just one, and that's the real trick. Well, goodbye for now. See you in some 9 or so hours.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

At least I said that I find it likely, and I believe someone else did as well (Sally? I don't know) and it was based on the conclusion that Menel suspected Shasta on Day 1 and he did not mention him later.

Example of Legate trying to innocuously establish his fellow wolf's innocence? The Seer is as incontrovertible as they come...though Legate does point out that Menel may have dreamt of Nogrod as well. Of course, it would look funny if he was too single-minded in his assertion of Shasta's innocence...

[Gwathagor]

Triple post.

Legate, could you post the voting records together in one post so we could all compare them?