Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[Gwathagor]

Wait, I forgot Nerwen. She might be a cunning wolf like Rikae, but I don't have anything substantial to post about her yet. I'll come back when I do.

[Nerwen]

Hello, everyone.

First off, I'd liked to say that I am totally confounded by Sally's behaviour. It wasn't just the circumstances around her– to me, the tone of her posts yesterday sounded incredibly wolfish. I was afraid of this happening, though– just because she's Sally, and you never know where you are with her.

So, here we go. Two of you are wolves. Which?

[Nerwen]

Note: if I am forced to vote to save myself, I will do so, because I am the one person I know is innocent. But I'd much prefer my vote to go to my top suspect... not that I've worked out who that is, yet.

[Gwathagor]

Ha ha. Today is going to be so hard. 2 vs. 3!

[Nerwen]

Gwathagor: I keep flip-flopping on him. From some angles, he looks like an honestly confused newbie– from others, like a wolf-cub who has been coached to act that way.

Points against him:

1. Rikae's failure to vote him when she was in danger.
2. The general "pre-emptiveness" other people have noted about him.
3. The fact that he voted me rather than Rikae, when there was such a massive case against her.

What to make of things like his (apparent) confusion over the rules, or like his recent post (#403) where he misrepresents the way Legate voted? For the latter, I'm inclined to think that a wolf wouldn't risk being caught in such an obvious lie... but then it might all be part of the act.

All I can say is that if is he is a wolf, he's the apprentice of somebody very sneaky indeed.

[Nerwen]

McCaber: Has been practically invisible most of the game. Main contribution (thanks a lot) was to start the whole "Nerwen and Rikae are wolves together" thing.

I thought yesterDay that Sally was a wolf, making use of an ordo's suggestion– but now we know she was innocent, so maybe it was the other way round? I mean that McCaber "idly" threw out the idea, to see if anyone would fall for it– and Sally jumped right in.

Big thing against his being a wolf is that he voted to lynch Rikae. But there is this: after killing Menel, the wolves must have considered Rikae a goner. Doubtless one or both of the others were planning to lynch her next Day. Now, her brilliant self-defence may have made them both change their minds– but then again it may not.

So– if McCaber is a wolf, and he decided to let his comrade die– would he not have taken the opportunity to cast suspicion on someone else? From here, the way my aggressive wolf-hunting has been twisted into a mark of guilt looks diabolically cunning.

(Remember, despite what Sally claimed, I did not suddenly turn on Rikae when it was already clear she was going down.)

On the other hand– I expected a wolfish McCaber to start a hue-and-cry after me toDay, and he hasn't so far.

Edit: word left out.

[Nerwen]

Shasta: One of the non-Rikae voters on Day 3 surely has to be a wolf– and if it's not Gwath, it's Shasta.

As far as I'm concerned, one of the people who pushed the "Nerwen/Rikae" theory is very likely a wolf– and if it's not McCaber, it's Shasta.

Like McCaber, he hasn't posted much and his posts have mostly lacked substance.

However, there's always the possibility that Menel dreamed of him and found him innocent. But then, maybe he dreamed of Nogrod.

Edit: fixed bolding.

[Nerwen]

Legate of Amon Lanc:

Shadowy the first few Days; has recently become more vocal. Generally seems helpful and logical.

Found Gwath unsuspicious yesterDay and suspicious toDay, from his very first post– why?

Rikae's rather anaemic attacks on him– possible wolf-on-wolf?

There's also the apparently contradictory reasons he gave for why Mac had supposedly killed Lommy– I'm still waiting for the explanation.

On the face of it, Legate is the least wolfish of the four– but, even though the wolves have had more than their share of luck, I can't help fearing we may have an evil mastermind at work– and I could see Legate as fitting the bill.

That said, I wouldn't be too happy voting him on so little evidence.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Shasta: One of the non-Rikae voters on Day 3 surely has to be a wolf– and if it's not Gwath, it's Shasta.

This makes a lot of sense, I think.

Post #403 was just a slip-up on my part...if I was a wolf trying to subvert the population, I would first of all get my facts straight. I'll go back and check on it, though, because I thought for sure that Legate voted for Nerwen.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Wait, I forgot Nerwen. She might be a cunning wolf like Rikae, but I don't have anything substantial to post about her yet. I'll come back when I do.

Sorry, but this just makes me raise an eyebrow. You 'forgot' Nerwen? After all the suspicion against her today?

[McCaber]

I will definitely agree with caution on this Day. If we make one wrong vote, the wolves will be able to force a win.

I've had an almost irrational hatred of Nerwen, but she hasn't given me much to suspect her in the last few days. I'm rethinking my position of her.

I think that if Shasta was a wolf he would have posted more often than he did. Just a thought, mind you, but he still hasn't given me enough to go on. I'm leaning more towards suspicious/innocent, but that's giving him the benefit of the doubt.

I do agree that Legate could be our evil mastermind, but if he is, he's playing a great game just because he's given me nothing to suspect.

Gwath looks the most suspicious to me, but at least half of that could be attributed to his newness. Every so often he makes a brilliant thought that changes my opinion, though. He could be the acolyte to Legate or Nerwen's master.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Gwath looks the most suspicious to me, but at least half of that could be attributed to his newness. Every so often he makes a brilliant thought that changes my opinion, though. He could be the acolyte to Legate or Nerwen's master.

I guess I need to be more consistent.

And yes, Shasta, I forgot Nerwen. But only for a couple of minutes, after which I pointed out that I had forgotten her. If I was trying to be sneaky, that wouldn't be the way to do it.

As you say, McCaber, we need to be cautious and go with the safest vote. I still maintain that a Legate/Shasta pair is the most reasonable, and that Legate is the safest vote out of those two. I think was clear in my reasoning, but I can elaborate if anyone needs me to.

[Nerwen]

Please do, Gwath.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Hmm. After this last post of Gwath's, I'm fairly confident that Nerwen and Gwath are our wolves, but I'm hesitant to vote...

[Gwathagor]

Ok, let's see if I can remember all this.

I think that Legate and Shasta are the guilty parties.

First, at least one of the Rikae voters has to be a wolf. In my opinion, Legate is more suspicious than Nerwen and McCaber, because of how little controversy he has caused or been involved in. I also do not trust Legate because he accuses everybody and nobody; his posts tend to be feel-good and safe. Post #401 is a good example. He mentions just about everyone, attaches a medium-sized portion of suspicion to those he mentions, and then proceeds to go with the flow when it comes time to vote.

Second, at least one of those who voted for Nerwen, rather than Rikae, is probably a wolf as well...which means that it must be Shasta. Shasta, like Legate, hasn't done much either to vindicate or condemn himself throughout this whole game. LG and Nogrod, in posts #339 and #344, respectively, identified Shasta's vote for Nerwen as wolfish, given his professed suspicion of Rikae.

Third, comments by Shasta (in post #384) and Legate (in his last post) in my opinion exclude the possibility that either both Legate and Nerwen or both Shasta and Nerwen could be wolves. McCaber is the other guy, and he seems more innocent than any of us, which leaves Nerwen with no possible compatriots (apart from myself, I know, I know), which means that Legate and Shasta must be wolves.

Fourth, Rikae, in post #177, listed players according to how suspicious she was of them. Neither Legate nor Shasta were listed under her Unwolfy category. They were also listed under separate categories. This is not hard evidence, but it would corroborate the idea that Shasta and Legate are Rikae's fellow wolves since Rikae would neither want to draw attention to them by listing both as Unwolfy, nor by listing them under the same category. Instead, she played it safe by making Legate Wolfyest (together with LG and Nerwen) and Shasta Wolfy. No one cares about the Wolfy category (it's too ordinary...everybody thinks everyone else is at least a little Wolfy) and there wasn't any substantial suspicion directed at Legate, so making him Wolfyest was also safe.

Fifth, in post #405 it looks like Legate is stretching the business of the Seer in an attempt to clear Shasta's name. This is a weaker point than some of my others, but it fits if I'm right on the other bits.

That's the best I can do for now. The trouble is, both Legate and Shasta have said very little of great substance during this game.

[Nerwen]

Problem, Gwathagor:

Your fourth and fifth points are worth looking into, but this piece of reasoning

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

First, at least one of the Rikae voters has to be a wolf.

and this one

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Second, at least one of those who voted for Nerwen, rather than Rikae, is probably a wolf as well...which means that it must be Shasta.

seem to be based purely on your knowledge of your own innocence. No ordo knows your role.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Third, comments by Shasta (in post #384) and Legate (in his last post) in my opinion exclude the possibility that either both Legate and Nerwen or both Shasta and Nerwen could be wolves.

Why?

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Hmm. After this last post of Gwath's, I'm fairly confident that Nerwen and Gwath are our wolves, but I'm hesitant to vote...

Wait...if I am a wolf, and so is Nerwen, then how do you figure out our voting habits? Why would I, who really went after Rikae until her brilliant "breakdown" (still sore about that...), switch my vote and try to kill Nerwen, who, according to your scheme, is also a wolf? If I was trying to prevent Rikae's death, then I would vote for someone else who WASN'T a wolf. As it was, Nerwen nearly got hanged the day before and it was very close on Day 3 as well. I surely would have recognized that the anti-Nerwen sentiment hadn't gone away, and killing one wolf to save another doesn't make sense, especially since Rikae was in such dire straits; if I was trying to save her, then the only thing I have accomplished is making myself look wolfish by association. Had I been successful in trying to save Rikae, then Nerwen would have been hanged, and Rikae would have been hanged the next day. I'd be a stupid, lonely wolf.

[Gwathagor]

Laying cards on the table:

I am going to sleep now. When I wake up, I am either going to vote for Shasta or Legate. I don't care which, but one of them had better get three votes by the deadline.

Goodnight everybody.