Werewolf XLVI: Getting Back to Basics

[Thinlómien]

Well, quite soon after complaining about finding no one innocent, I see two posts that look very innocent to me. I'm inclined to think Mith and Agan innocent right now. Mith sounds genuine and well, yes, she said she's an ordo and I'm not sure if she'd be dishonest to claim it that way if she was a wolf.

Agan then, she seems quite innocent and in a different way than she usually does. (Usually when she seems innocent to me she's a wolf.) She's not as careful and as unsuspicious as she's as a wolf. Of course, she's a smart person and I would not put it past her to have changed her playing style since it's getting pretty obvious, in a way.

Lhuna, too, seems quite innocent, but not as much as those two. I'm well aware that she's a Queen of Deceit. *shrugs* At least I enjoy having her around since she contributes quite a lot.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Zut aleur! Les poissons!
(and that was the only thing I can say in French so no need to lynch me )

Yes, obviously we shouldn't lynch her as a French speaker since she obviouly can't even spell her sayings right.

Originally Posted by Agan

Because I didn't say I hate day 1's? Why does saying that make one more suspicious, may I ask? Is it always a wolf desperately trying to get some content to his or her post? Or is suspecting someone because of that just the same as suspecting the silent ones on Day 1 - a principle?

Well, I can only speak for myself, but I don't find declaring that particularily suspicious - only rather unconstructive and annoying.

Originally Posted by Agan

Why?
As far as I've seen, wolves actually make very little plans. It's often just like "well let's try to be as normal as possible and behave depending on the situation". I've seen villagers come up with most ingenious suggestions about wolf plans while in reality the wolves try just to lie low and be like themselves. If the wolves make plans, I don't think they always realise how obvious it will look to the villagers whose noses are trained to smell the rat.
Therefore I wouldn't be as ready to rule out even the possibility of Nog-Leg-Mith trio planning things like that seriously.

I don't get this logic. And I doubt you explaining it would help. Looks like a simple disagreement. I daresay players such as Nog, Mith and Legate would realise it looks quite silly and obvious. Hey, now that I'm writing this your logic starts to make sense. Maybe they indeed wouldn't. But I can't see why they actually would make such a scheme. It's a good question. So in conclusion it probably isn't a wolvish scheme. 99% of wolvish-scheme theories are wrong. But of course this doesn't exonarate any of them, or even the very wolf triangle they could be.

I have a bad feeling I'm pretty bad at phrasing my thoughts unconfusingly today...


edit: xed with Lhuna

[Kath]

Well! I am here at last. My turtles took even longer that I thought they would. I haven't had a chance to look through the thread yet but I will try to do so although given my day so far I might have to make a random vote for which I do apologise as I hate doing it. Still, better any vote than none. Hopefully though I will have time to make a proper one.

[Meneltarmacil]

As the day began, there was a major commotion.

Bungo, Volo's gorilla, truned up in the village square making a lot of noise and pointing off into the woods.

"What's he going on about?" Nerwen wondered. "Volo, can't you keep him under control?

"Volo?"

But Volo was nowhere to be seen that morning. The villagers followed Bungo to Volo's cabin in the forest. Inside, they found a number of bones scattered around the floor, but it was Legate who saw the most hideous part of it.

Above the fireplace, the wolves had mounted Volo's head amongst the explorer's other trophies.

Alive:
Kath
Legate of Amon Lanc
Mithalwen
Nerwen
Nogrod
Oddwen
satansaloser2005
The Elf-warrior
Thinlomien

Dead:
Meneltarmacil (Moderator): Crushed under falling cow by Wolves on Night 1.
Lhunardawen (Seer): Hung by villagers on Day 1.
Aganzir (Ordinary Villager): Made into shoes by Wolves on Night 2.
Gwathagor (Werewolf): Objections aside, hung by villagers on Day 2.
Volo (Ordinary Villager): Turned into a hunting trophy by Wolves on Night 3.

Day 3 has begun.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hm, so Volo. Actually I'm a bit surprised, as I thought it will be Sally (because of her last vote which tied Gwath with Nog). But I am not happy with it nonetheless (well who would be), as Volo was among the ones I regarded more like innocent. Sufficient to say, had for example Nogrod been killed, I would have been maybe even happy Okay, sorry Nog, that wasn't nice, but sure my stance is understandable After yesterday, I need to re-think whether it's possible that Nog would be a wolf even when Gwath was. I think I'm going to spend some time looking at Gwath and his relations with other people. But not sure if I'll do it rightaway, as I have other work to do... but hopefully soon. And if not today evening, then in the morning, in about 11 hours. Till then, good luck all of you who are innocent!

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Another addittion. Btw I think it may be helpful if someone posted a voting list (I looked through it, but don't have time or nerves to put it together. I know, I'm lazy, but like I said, other work to do right now). But the late Gwath-voters (yes, even with Nogrod *sigh*) look better to me now. Unless there was a deliberate wolf-sacrificing action, which I don't think there was (although I'd like to look at peoples' arguments for voting Gwath, which may clear whether there's not some wolf hidden among them). Yes, I am noting this also for myself so that I don't forget Whatever. See you later.

[Thinlómien]

Volo? Why? Did he seem gifted or something? Or was he just quite innocent-considered, not-so-vocal player whose death would not leave so much tracks?

YesterDay's voting was mad... I have to have a look at it at some phase, but not now, when I'm going to sleep.

I'm still suspicious of Nogrod and less suspicious of Legate because he has decreased his suspicion of Nogrod. If he was a wolf, I think he would continue the same "handy" suspicion. This is, unless they are fellow wolves, which is something I don't consider impossible.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Volo? Why? Did he seem gifted or something? Or was he just quite innocent-considered, not-so-vocal player whose death would not leave so much tracks?

Personally I think there was his self-vote which some considered innocentish, but mainly he was among Gwath-voters and also he interacted with him (or Gwath with him, respectively) the way that it could have been concluded that they are not peers, so after Gwath was lynched, Volo could have been one of the subjects possible to get out of the way. Nog was suspected by me and you; Sally... I really don't know why she wasn't killed... but maybe to puzzle us, to ask exactly this and suspect her of being a wolf... that would mean the wolf is someone clever... because I seriously find that hard to think that she is a wolf, after what she did yesterday. Also Gwath once a little interacted with her (it's quoted even in my post above) a little bit negatively. Oddwen voted first, that wasn't that apparent. Volo was simply the second vote, the one which makes the bandwagon not just one random vote, but which makes it rolling. Or so I see it.

As for votes: thanks, Sally. Now I'd wonder if Oddwolf would have started a Gwathwagon in the first place, as there was suspicion against him. Dangerous?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Another addittion. Btw I think it may be helpful if someone posted a voting list (I looked through it, but don't have time or nerves to put it together. I know, I'm lazy, but like I said, other work to do right now). But the late Gwath-voters (yes, even with Nogrod *sigh*) look better to me now. Unless there was a deliberate wolf-sacrificing action, which I don't think there was (although I'd like to look at peoples' arguments for voting Gwath, which may clear whether there's not some wolf hidden among them). Yes, I am noting this also for myself so that I don't forget Whatever. See you later.

In regards to the request for a voting list: Give me like 20 minutes. I need to type it on here and make sure I got all the votes and times and things right. But I'd be happy to.

[satansaloser2005]

Day One Votes:
Volo-->Volo at 5:32am
Lhuna -->Gwath at 2:01pm
Kath -->Legate at 4:42
Nerwen -->Lhuna at 5:37pm
Gwath -->Lhuna at 5:52pm
Mith -->Noggie at 6:37pm
Noggie -->Lhuna at 6:52pm
Elf -->Agan at 6:56pm
Lommie -->Gwath at 6:59pm
Agan -->Legate at 6:59pm
No voters: Legate, Oddie, Sally

Day Two Votes:
Kath -->Noggie at 11:30pm
Oddie -->Gwath at 2:39pm
Gwath -->Legate at 6:53pm
Mith -->Noggie at 6:56pm
Lommie-->Noggie at 6:56pm
Legate -->Noggie at 6:56pm
Volo -->Gwath at 6:57pm
Noggie -->Gwath at 6:58pm
Sally -->Gwath at 6:58pm
No voters: Elf, Nerwen


There they are!

EDIT: Sorry, put them all in my time zone! Fixed now, though!


EDIT AGAIN: I decided to note the known innocents and known wolf, just in case it helps anyone else. I color code for myself, but sadly that's not an option on the board I guess.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I see this is going to end the typical way: almost no posts this far and when I awaken in the morning, there will be a host to read Anyway, I read though Gwathagor's posts. Concerning people, after I read it all, I really don't believe Nogrod is another wolf, unless it was all a plan from him, because Gwath I'd think won't do such a thing to go after packmate Nog the way he did. Just look at almost any post of Gwath's, and he places Nog there into the same line with the ones who are dead.

UNLESS... now looking at the voting list... Gwath in fact voted for me! So may it be that he did not want to vote for Nog because he was a fellow wolf? Possibly? But then, there are indeed many arguments against. Hmm... not sure.

Otherwise: the track is complete, technically all whom Gwath accused, have been dead later. Odd. Anyway, he mostly mentioned all people, negatively, except for a few; and I think a Wolf may be there, at best among those whom he did not mention at all.

He very little mentioned Nerwen, just here:

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Excuse me? When did I do that? But at least you preemptively acknowledged that you also are "chiming in" with other people (in this case Nogrod). That's good. Acknowledging your own suspiciousness is always a good ploy for averting further suspicion. (Ha!)

Then also Oddwen, with whom I'd say it looks worse, i.e. more probable that she were another wolf. Also similar times he mentions Elf Warrior:

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Now look...I feel the same way about Oddwen's post, as she is just mimicking me and I think a couple others (?). That looks suspicious because repeating someone else is such an obviously safe move. However, Nogrod, you were awfully quick to identify my post as "wolvish"? (etc., speaking to Nog then)

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I want to hear more from Oddwen and The Elf Warrior. We have lynched people for silence in the past...and we could do it again. Of course, silence usually is the safest defense.

Does anyone thing the formulation is odd? The last sentence does not logically fit in there, does it? It looks like praising silence??? Maybe a wolf hint to a friend among these two - "stay silent, that's the best defense"? Or how do you read it? I find that improbable and maybe I am reading too much to it (maybe a writing mischmatch), but it simply is odd.

To sally:

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

What case? Be more specific, please, and I'll do my best to oblige. I haven't seen any serious arguments or evidence leveled against me, but you seem pretty happy to seize on Oddwen's vote and call it a case - and THAT looks fuzzy, because you've been even less involved than Oddwen.

This is his other mentioning of Oddwen. Now I'm not sure whether he'd use a fellow wolf as an example, but it may be an attempt of defense.

And last, there is this:

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Oddwen looks the worst of the quiet to me - but you all seem to be convinced that Lhuna found her innocent? To me, her sparse, non-involved voting/posting pattern seems like that of either a scavenging wolf or an irresponsible innocent.

This may be a time for trying to seem like arising a wolf-on-wolf suspicion, yet backing from it immediately because "the others are convinced she's innocent".

His handling of Nog, sally and Lommy seems too dangerous to me to think that any of these would be a fellow wolf.

As far as I know, he did not mention Mith nor Kath at all.

Nerwen, Oddwen, The Elf-warrior are the others who remain. One (or more eventually, if there's more wolves) of them may be his fellow packmate.

I think I should read what others say of Gwath. Maybe I will do Kath yet today, it should be fast with her.

[Nogrod]

The icehockey game between the US and Canada was just marvellous entertainment even if the better team lost.

With this game then...

Sorry but I'm too tired to think right now.

Still, even if I know this got me nearly lynched yesterDay I'd say watch for Lommy though. I - don't - like - the - way - she- behaves.

Legate: have I missed something or why do you think the wolves should have killed Sally?

Also, if Oddwen is a wolf she is really bold as it was clear - well at least I thought it was clear - that Gwath was one having a lot of suspicion on him and so a possible lynch-candidate... and with this many of us still alive I don't think the wolves would particularly wish to reduce their precious numbers this early in exchange for credibility.

EDIT: X'd with Oddwen's novel... back tomorrow (RL)

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Agan

I don't think Gwathy's first-days-are-rubbish attitude in his first post makes him suspicious, as he's always quite like that. My first post wasn't any more constructive than his, Oddwen's or Lhuna's, but why wasn't I suspected because of that then? Because I didn't say I hate day 1's? Why does saying that make one more suspicious, may I ask?

I think it's time to come open with this one. I thought of fishing some reactions from people and I needed a bait. So I came up with this "I hate Day1's" combined with non-informative or otherwise careful first posts - which I do not like anyway myself - to be my criteria for someone looking suspicious. So it was a means, not the end of it even if it's based on my actual preferences for play on Day1's.

Now I think I may share what came out of it.

I suggested that Gwath, Oddwen and Lhuna looked suspicious by my standard.

Gwath's reactions have indeed made me suspicious of him as it feels like he's a wolf trying to parry the suspicions.

Oddwen's reactions don't make me feel too happy about her either but there is something quite Oddwenish in them. Well the wolves would try to look as normal as possible so that is no argument but somehow I tend to think her more innocent than guilty this far.

Lhuna really creeps me out. She hasn't exactly "reacted" to my suspicions but has been posting innocentish stuff all Day. But then I found that she thought me one of her main candidates without stating any reason for it. Now is that an innocent retaliation-reaction or a lycanthropic effort of spreading suspicion for a possibly dangerous adversary?

Agan's questioning of the grounds for the suspicions & her opposition to Gwath's suspiciousness speak good of her as wolves would love to cling into any generally shared suspicion whenever there's one and Gwath has been mentioned as suspicious by a few already.

Both Lhuna and Legate seem to ride the tide in regards Gwath. Lhuna even voted him. So innocents sensing lycantrophy or wolves hiking a free ride?

...

Only after reading a few comments I realised Mith had actually said she's an ordo. Now all of us who have played with her know she doesn't like to lie whatever the case. It's part of her charming personality. But I'm also feeling a bit uneasy with a situation where someone will be automatically looked upon as an innocent just because she says she is. I mean a few of you have already kind of declared her innocent just because of that.

I will not probably vote for her toDay either as I feel it would be a greater risk than voting for someone else but I just felt a need to bring this thing forwards. For on the other hand her actions do not look too innocentish. Quite the contrary. And I've played with her a few times indeed. She's a bit too explanatory I'd say. But let's wait and see what she will have to say.

...

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Now, as for Volo's self-vote, I'm not sure if Menel has a provision for automatic lynchings for non-voters. But in any case, I strongly advise not to vote for Volo because of his RL constraints. We have greater need to lynch our strong suspects than people who can't participate properly.

My point against Volo was not that he has RL constraints but that he decided to make a self-vote which I find only screaming of "look at me, I'm innocent!" which I could understand from a wolf but not from an innocent in a situation of no pressure - or a gifted of any sort as that would draw the attention of the wolves towards him in the Night.

But if Volo was a wolf and Lhuna his mate that defence would make sense... nicely vague and general (referring to general principles of not voting for those who have no time to play and thence sidetracking the real issue) but still working towards shielding the suspicions away from Volo?

[Thinlómien]

Okay, deadline draws nearer and I have no idea who to vote. Maybe a little summary-ish thing would help.

Innocent-looking
Aganzir
Mithalwen (whatever Mr Hiccup says)

Quite okay
Lhuna

Very neutral
Nerwen
Kath
Volo
Nogrod

A little less neutral
Oddwen
Legate
Gwath

Absolutely no idea
Elf-Warrior
Sally

The problem with Legate, Gwath and Oddwen is that I really don't suspect them more than anybody else. They might have said something to raise my eyebrows more than the others but still, they don't strike me as particularily suspicious. I'd be very hesitant to vote anyone of them on the current grounds. It would feel stupid and very random. I feel like I'm suspecting them just because I have to suspect someone and not because their behaviour genuinely looks wolvish to me. It's like I note some behaviour that could be a sign of wolvishness and make it my suspicion because I have nothing else to go on. It doesn't feel good. I really hope someone starts revealing their furry side and soon, because currently I have the feeling I want to vote someone who won't get lynched and have my conscience clear because I'm at loss with this...

Okay, maybe a reread would be a good idea. I'll do it sooner and later and be back after it.


edit: xed with Mith

[Kath]

Right, well it looks like this is the only chance I'll have to post again today so let's have a look through at everyone.

Agan - some nice random accusations, pretty normal Day 1 fare. Has Legate, Lommy and Nog as the wolves.

Gwath - gives the sentiments of most, and I can't argue given my very late arrival. Thinks Oddwen is suspicious for copying his cop-out, but Nog is too for leaping on it. Argues himself in circles about Legate.

Legate - some random stuff, and then it's suspicion of Nog and Mith which is immediately backtracked, especially over Nog. Again then with Lommy as well. So having stated Mith, Nog and Lommy are suspect he then immediately turns his statement round on all three, yet still ends up with Mith in his suspicion list. Looks at Gwath but makes no sure decision.

Lhuna - mentions the uselessness of Day 1's. Has Mith and Legate as innocent, unsure over Lommy and Volo and little on anyone else. Votes Gwath with fair reasoning.

Mith - started off the thread very amusingly, but little of substance. Claims we won't get any double revelations, but I think it's still possible, one should never underestimate the deviosity of werewolf players. On the statistics again, something I am rarely a fan of so early on. Is clearly having fun though. Playing for fun rather than to win, which suggests innocent to me. Some suspicion of Nog.

Nerwen - little there. Suspicion of Gwath, Lhuna, Legate and either Nog or Mith.

Noggie - picked up on Mith's mentioning of Gifted's as well, same ideas as me there. Arguing himself in circles over her though, so as normal. Kneejerk reaction on Oddwen, Gwath and Lhuna and thinks Lommy innocent. Agrees with Lommy about Gwath and Legate but thinks Oddwen innocent. Thinks Volo and Lhuna could be a wolvish pair.

Oddwen - some randomness.

Lommy - I am your semi-nemesis? I was not aware of this! I knew about morm and Lhuna (lover-traitor) but alright, I'll have another. A little bit accusative, or at least feeling somewhat sharp in the way she questioned Mith. Not sure about her mentioning her own flip flop, especially since it wasn't really one. Picks up on Nog and Mith 'interacting', though I'd say they hadn't done an enormous amount of that. Thinks Legate and Gwath are overthinking what Lhuna did and some suspicion of Volo and Oddwen, all with some fair reasoning. Has Mith, Agan and Lhuna innocent. The person who has just decided you're a wolf and you say 'oh yes they're innocent', well that's an old wolvish trick and I'm not sure Lommy would be that obvious, but it's possible.

Volo - votes for himself, which is about the most unhelpful thing you can do on Day 1 but we're clearly going to get nothing else out of him for the Day.

Nothing from sally or the Elf Warrior, hopefully they'll appear before the Day is out. But now, I must vote.

Innocent:
Agan
Lhuna
Mith
Nerwen
Volo

Guilty:
Gwath
Legate
Nog
Lommy

Everyone else I'm not sure about. Of those I find suspicious I am tempted to vote Gwath or Legate for a couple of reasons. First I don't want to vote Nog because I have an automatic reaction of suspicion. Lommy I don't feel is suspicious enough to warrant a vote. Both Gwath and Legate argue themselves in circles about each other as if deliberately trying not to come to a final decision, but Legate does it for other people as well so is more irritating with it. Therefore:

++LEGATE

[Gwathagor]

I don't like these myths that have sprung up around me - if they go on much longer, they'll become tradition, and then they'll haunt me for the rest of the game, even after they are unrecognizably far from the truth.

Myth #1: I chime in with people. Reality: I've posted twice, and spoken my mind both times. Granted, my first post was not helpful.

Myth #2: I'm trying to flatter Legate so that he'll help me out later. Reality: I stated that Legate, as usual, seems rational. This is a truth universally acknowledged throughout the Downs, and, if anything, it puts me more on my guard because I am a sucker for rational arguments.

Myth #4: Me and Legate are arguing circles around each other. Reality: I posted a brief paragraph mentioning Legate.

Ok. I am going to try to read through the thread again. I need to narrow my suspicions, which at this point, include just about everyone.

X-ed with Aganzir

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Myth #2: I'm trying to flatter Legate so that he'll help me out later. Reality: I stated that Legate, as usual, seems rational.

It looks like that because of my inability to see anything rational about Legate's posts at the beginning of the day.

edit: xed with Nog

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Last time Legate-sika said so he was a wolf. I have no reason to assume he is this time different.

Oh really did I? I thought this is the first time. Now what to make out of this (since you apparently were innocent back then, but I wasn't, so...)

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Myth #2: I'm trying to flatter Legate so that he'll help me out later. Reality: I stated that Legate, as usual, seems rational. This is a truth universally acknowledged throughout the Downs, and, if anything, it puts me more on my guard because I am a sucker for rational arguments.

Well, being a little immodest, it may be a truth universally if you say so, but it definitely was not true in my opening posts, really. I lacked sleep and even if you said the core of my thoughts was good or you agree with it or something, okay, but it most definitely was not rational! And when even I say that, you surely can't give me that

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Myth #4: Me and Legate are arguing circles around each other. Reality: I posted a brief paragraph mentioning Legate.

This, on the other hand, is true. But that speaks nothing about Gwath, but about the person who said that... *googles around*

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

because currently I have the feeling I want to vote someone who won't get lynched and have my conscience clear because I'm at loss with this...

Ha! Another Frollo!

Originally Posted by Lommy

I feel like I'm suspecting them just because I have to suspect someone and not because their behaviour genuinely looks wolvish to me. It's like I note some behaviour that could be a sign of wolvishness and make it my suspicion because I have nothing else to go on. It doesn't feel good. I really hope someone starts revealing their furry side and soon, ---

I haven't quite decided yet whether this honest whining is that of a wolf or innocent.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lhuna really creeps me out. She hasn't exactly "reacted" to my suspicions but has been posting innocentish stuff all Day. But then I found that she thought me one of her main candidates without stating any reason for it. Now is that an innocent retaliation-reaction or a lycanthropic effort of spreading suspicion for a possibly dangerous adversary?

A fair point about Lhuna not reacting to your suspicion. But I'm not sure what you meant by saying she didn't state a reason for suspecting you. Do you mean she didn't say that in the post in which she declared you as one of her top suspects, or that she didn't give proper reasons for you being either a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent?

Originally Posted by Nog

Agan's questioning of the grounds for the suspicions & her opposition to Gwath's suspiciousness speak good of her as wolves would love to cling into any generally shared suspicion whenever there's one and Gwath has been mentioned as suspicious by a few already.

Actually, I suspect Gwath too. I just didn't find hating day ones a reason to do so.

Originally Posted by Nog

But I'm also feeling a bit uneasy with a situation where someone will be automatically looked upon as an innocent just because she says she is. I mean a few of you have already kind of declared her innocent just because of that.

She's someone I'm not going to vote today, not one innocence of whose I'll be sure for the rest of the game.

Given their interaction, I might be inclined to consider Lhuna and Legate fellow wolves.

Another one I'm not going to vote today is Kath. She shares my suspects and arguments in an innocent-looking way.

edit: xed with Gwath

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kath

Legate - some random stuff, and then it's suspicion of Nog and Mith which is immediately backtracked, especially over Nog. Again then with Lommy as well. So having stated Mith, Nog and Lommy are suspect he then immediately turns his statement round on all three, yet still ends up with Mith in his suspicion list. Looks at Gwath but makes no sure decision.

I don't like the simple and nothing-saying analysis of me, but whatever. How should I say that... if I were a wolf and wanted to lynch me, I would surely find better way to express evidence why I am guilty. But this is not like it. I thought about a possiblilty that she may be the wolf and not making direct accusations, simply hoping to get me down. And for example there could be other reasons, like that Gwath is a fellow wolf and she wants to bring forward another lynchee the people might eventually vote for. I may be of course overcomplicating it. But anyway. Also...

Originally Posted by Kath

Mith - started off the thread very amusingly, but little of substance. Claims we won't get any double revelations, but I think it's still possible, one should never underestimate the deviosity of werewolf players. On the statistics again, something I am rarely a fan of so early on. Is clearly having fun though. Playing for fun rather than to win, which suggests innocent to me. Some suspicion of Nog.

This actually troubles me more. Thinking of the former, Kath did not have much time as she said, so whatever. But this? There have been looots of people who obviously "played for fun rather than to win" or such, but Kath never called it like that except for Mith's case. So, is she making a defense of fellow wolf? If Mith is a wolf, Kath may be as well?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Ha! Another Frollo!

And stop saying that, I always read "Frodo"

EDIT: X-ed since my last post.

[Nogrod]

Just off to the kitchen...

Volo -> Volo
Lhuna -> Gwath
Kath -> Legate
Nerwen -> Lhuna

Legate looks better right now and Gwath's "myths" feel more reasonable than not.

I might go for Lhuna today based on reasons I gave in #41.

Also...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

A fair point about Lhuna not reacting to your suspicion. But I'm not sure what you meant by saying she didn't state a reason for suspecting you. Do you mean she didn't say that in the post in which she declared you as one of her top suspects, or that she didn't give proper reasons for you being either a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent?

What I meant was that she mentioned myself as one of her top-candidates without giving a reason why was that. Of the others (Gwath and Nerwen) she made points about. Saying one is "a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent" can hardly be counted as an argument as such... without further reasoning.

And she's too good a player to just retaliate a suspicion for suspicion if innocent.

EDIT: X'd with a few + added Nerwen's vote

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What I meant was that she mentioned myself as one of her top-candidates without giving a reason why was that. Of the others (Gwath and Nerwen) she made points about. Saying one is "a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent" can hardly be counted as an argument as such... without further reasoning.

Maybe because she hadn't said anything about them earlier.

Gwathy, see my post #49, I asked you something. Last game you were a wolf you got too far by ignoring suspicions and questions, and I won't let it happen again.

I think it's rather hasty to say Volo looks like a wolf because of his vote. My opinion is that he's crazy enough to do it even as innocent, but even if someone else had done it I wouldn't consider it so suspicious.
I would say it's strange indeed that there's such an ado about it...

I am likely to vote either Legate, Gwath or Lhuna today.

edit: xed with two Gwathys

[Gwathagor]

Sloppy reading on my part, sorry.

My point was that it seems strange to claim that wolves don't make plans. After all, they DO conspire for 24 hours.

[Gwathagor]

I don't like the way Nogrod directs the flow of suspicion with his all-encompassing posts. It seems very controlling to me, like he's some kind of master-wolf. Or a mafia boss.

Lhuna's vote against me seems flippant ("that's the way the cookie crumbles").

Volo..... based on his self-vote looks, to me, more like a remarkably bold wolf than just a crazy villager. The most obvious conclusion that we're going to draw is that he must be innocent, because no sane wolf would do something so stupid. Right? So, Volo has now established himself as having a reputation for innocence without making enemies by voting against someone else.

This puts Volo at the top of my list with Nogrod and Lhuna.

Everybody else is mildly suspicious - which means that no one is. Ha.

I want to hear more from Oddwen and The Elf Warrior. We have lynched people for silence in the past...and we could do it again. Of course, silence usually is the safest defense.

EDIT: Wow. Crossed with everyone since/including Legate.

[Gwathagor]

Yikes better vote and avoid that last minute rush. Nothing good ever comes out of last minutes rushes.

++Lhunardawen

At first I was going to vote against Volo, but I decided I needed more substantial evidence. Maybe tomorrow.

[Gwathagor]

I messed up, we still have another hour until DL. Sorry.

[Thinlómien]

I go for a nice evening walk and what do I see when I come back? A flood of posts and even a couple of votes. Great.

Nerwen looks quite reasonable and innocent to me. Which, according to my previous experiences of her, doesn't mean anything. I hope to hear more of her toMorrow.

Legate seems more innocent now. He seems reasonable and posts a lot without saying anything that seems very wolvish, so I'm not very alarmed about him anymore. Besides although I did not understand his reply to me considering the Lhuna-Gwath thing it seemed quite innocent.

Kath seems like her normal self - the same self she is whether she's innocent or not. Her behaviour doesn't alarm me, anyway, so I'm not very alarmed. (Wow, that was smartly phrased...) I don't agree with her logic all the time, though, and it startles me how she lists five people as innocent and four as guilty without blinking an eye and cheerily says she's not sure about others. Her way of expressing herself is quite black.and-white and slightly creeps me out. Hmm... seems like there's something alarming after all.

Originally Posted by Kath

Lommy - I am your semi-nemesis? I was not aware of this!

I said ex-semi-nemesis... besides I think I might have misused the word but I think we used to suspect each other all the time but not anymore...

Originally Posted by Agan

Given their interaction, I might be inclined to consider Lhuna and Legate fellow wolves.

That crossed my mind too.

Gwath the mythbuster looks more innocent than he did a while ago.


edit: xed with Gwath, Agan, Gwath, Mith and Agan

[The Elf-warrior]

Nogrod,I can see why you would reason so, but I disagree. Maybe I'm an innocent who is looking for guidance, and who is persuaded by what you say.

++Aganzir

I agree with you about wolf plans, and you seem all right, but I'm going on a hunch. Please forgive me if you aren't a wolf.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Please forgive me if you aren't a wolf.

I forgive you if you aren't a wolf yourself.

++ Legate

Because I suspect him more and Lhuna will probably die anyway.

edit: xed with Gwath and Lommy

[Thinlómien]

Okay, nothing new to say about today after a reread.

Now onto Gwath and Legate...


Gwath about Legate

Day1
#27 Calls him reasonable and impenetrable, but doesn't like his "honest gut feelings". Ends up having no real opinion on him.
#51 Busts a myth about him trying to flatter Legate: says he merely called Legate rational and that it's an universal truth. Also busts a myth about him and Legate arguing in circles with each other: says he merely posted a brief paragraph about Legate.

Day2
- nothing this far -


Legate about Gwath

Day1
#32 Teases him with a nickname, says he makes him feel a little uneasy and both agrees and disagrees with him about Lhuna's lists, wonders/is suspicious of Gwath calling him reasonable. Concludes: "But overall, it's not that bad with Gwath. He's in the yellow zone for me (that's next to the green zone, which is okay). Gwathwolf used to be worse as far as I could tell from an observer-point."
#48 Says he's in his "yellow zone", but doesn't like him being a probable lynch-candidate. Strays from the Gwath-topic to talk about lynching quiet people, says that we could always lynch Gwathagor the following day.
#54 Speculates that Gwath could be Kath's fellow.
#55 Replies to Gwath's mythbusting: says he was not reasonable in the beginning of Day1 and that Gwath's other mythbusting concerning the two of them is right and implies claiming something like the "myth" is suspicious.
#73 Says he will leave voting Gwath for that day since he has lately seemed more reasonable.

Day2
#90 Doubts Lhuna dreamt of Gwath.
#111 Repeats the point mentioned above, although says she could have done so.


Conclusion: Just as bad as I thought it was. I really don't like the way they flip-flop and are indesicive about each other. They also defend each other a bit sneakily: Gwath does not defend only himself in his myth-busting and Legate is a tad too certain Lhuna didn't dream of Gwath. Also, his decidion not to vote Gwath looks a bit bad.
This of course doesn't prove that they're wolves. But if one of them is, I'd have a careful look at the other. There's something odd in here.


edit: xed with Mith, Nerwen and Mith

[The Elf-warrior]

I have poem for you all. It's entitled "A Bucket Has Been Kicked"

Who is a wolf, I can not tell.
The thoughts in my head aren't clear as a bell.
Is it Mithalwen?
Or could it be Lhunardawen?
Or is it another?
All I know is the dairy farmer has been smothered
By men who take the shape of lycanthropes.
This problem has got this village by the throat.


Ok, on to business. Nogrod's critique of group based arguments in post 15 should be heeded. I'd like to add that the odds of being a wolve are x out of 14 (x=how many lycanthropes there are in this village.) If I had to guess, Nogrod's probably clean. Also, it doesn't matter whether someone has been a wolf before, the odds of someone being a wolf this time are still the same. Lhuna, Legate didn't say everyone was a cobbler, he said everyone was acting like a cobbler. On the other hand, the contents of your list may have been intended for humour as Lommy said, thus making your statement less suspicious in my opinion. As to Lommy's complaint about voting because one has to suspect someone seems perfectly innocent to me. As to Mithalwen, I'm inclined to agree with Kath that she's not a wolf on the grounds that she's playing for fun. I'll vote closer to the deadline.

[Mithalwen]

I was getting suspicious of Legate but I am so flattered he used Sama that I may have to rethink