Werewolf XLVI: Getting Back to Basics

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Agan

I don't think Gwathy's first-days-are-rubbish attitude in his first post makes him suspicious, as he's always quite like that. My first post wasn't any more constructive than his, Oddwen's or Lhuna's, but why wasn't I suspected because of that then? Because I didn't say I hate day 1's? Why does saying that make one more suspicious, may I ask?

I think it's time to come open with this one. I thought of fishing some reactions from people and I needed a bait. So I came up with this "I hate Day1's" combined with non-informative or otherwise careful first posts - which I do not like anyway myself - to be my criteria for someone looking suspicious. So it was a means, not the end of it even if it's based on my actual preferences for play on Day1's.

Now I think I may share what came out of it.

I suggested that Gwath, Oddwen and Lhuna looked suspicious by my standard.

Gwath's reactions have indeed made me suspicious of him as it feels like he's a wolf trying to parry the suspicions.

Oddwen's reactions don't make me feel too happy about her either but there is something quite Oddwenish in them. Well the wolves would try to look as normal as possible so that is no argument but somehow I tend to think her more innocent than guilty this far.

Lhuna really creeps me out. She hasn't exactly "reacted" to my suspicions but has been posting innocentish stuff all Day. But then I found that she thought me one of her main candidates without stating any reason for it. Now is that an innocent retaliation-reaction or a lycanthropic effort of spreading suspicion for a possibly dangerous adversary?

Agan's questioning of the grounds for the suspicions & her opposition to Gwath's suspiciousness speak good of her as wolves would love to cling into any generally shared suspicion whenever there's one and Gwath has been mentioned as suspicious by a few already.

Both Lhuna and Legate seem to ride the tide in regards Gwath. Lhuna even voted him. So innocents sensing lycantrophy or wolves hiking a free ride?

...

Only after reading a few comments I realised Mith had actually said she's an ordo. Now all of us who have played with her know she doesn't like to lie whatever the case. It's part of her charming personality. But I'm also feeling a bit uneasy with a situation where someone will be automatically looked upon as an innocent just because she says she is. I mean a few of you have already kind of declared her innocent just because of that.

I will not probably vote for her toDay either as I feel it would be a greater risk than voting for someone else but I just felt a need to bring this thing forwards. For on the other hand her actions do not look too innocentish. Quite the contrary. And I've played with her a few times indeed. She's a bit too explanatory I'd say. But let's wait and see what she will have to say.

...

Originally Posted by Lhuna

Now, as for Volo's self-vote, I'm not sure if Menel has a provision for automatic lynchings for non-voters. But in any case, I strongly advise not to vote for Volo because of his RL constraints. We have greater need to lynch our strong suspects than people who can't participate properly.

My point against Volo was not that he has RL constraints but that he decided to make a self-vote which I find only screaming of "look at me, I'm innocent!" which I could understand from a wolf but not from an innocent in a situation of no pressure - or a gifted of any sort as that would draw the attention of the wolves towards him in the Night.

But if Volo was a wolf and Lhuna his mate that defence would make sense... nicely vague and general (referring to general principles of not voting for those who have no time to play and thence sidetracking the real issue) but still working towards shielding the suspicions away from Volo?

[Thinlómien]

Okay, deadline draws nearer and I have no idea who to vote. Maybe a little summary-ish thing would help.

Innocent-looking
Aganzir
Mithalwen (whatever Mr Hiccup says)

Quite okay
Lhuna

Very neutral
Nerwen
Kath
Volo
Nogrod

A little less neutral
Oddwen
Legate
Gwath

Absolutely no idea
Elf-Warrior
Sally

The problem with Legate, Gwath and Oddwen is that I really don't suspect them more than anybody else. They might have said something to raise my eyebrows more than the others but still, they don't strike me as particularily suspicious. I'd be very hesitant to vote anyone of them on the current grounds. It would feel stupid and very random. I feel like I'm suspecting them just because I have to suspect someone and not because their behaviour genuinely looks wolvish to me. It's like I note some behaviour that could be a sign of wolvishness and make it my suspicion because I have nothing else to go on. It doesn't feel good. I really hope someone starts revealing their furry side and soon, because currently I have the feeling I want to vote someone who won't get lynched and have my conscience clear because I'm at loss with this...

Okay, maybe a reread would be a good idea. I'll do it sooner and later and be back after it.


edit: xed with Mith

[Kath]

Right, well it looks like this is the only chance I'll have to post again today so let's have a look through at everyone.

Agan - some nice random accusations, pretty normal Day 1 fare. Has Legate, Lommy and Nog as the wolves.

Gwath - gives the sentiments of most, and I can't argue given my very late arrival. Thinks Oddwen is suspicious for copying his cop-out, but Nog is too for leaping on it. Argues himself in circles about Legate.

Legate - some random stuff, and then it's suspicion of Nog and Mith which is immediately backtracked, especially over Nog. Again then with Lommy as well. So having stated Mith, Nog and Lommy are suspect he then immediately turns his statement round on all three, yet still ends up with Mith in his suspicion list. Looks at Gwath but makes no sure decision.

Lhuna - mentions the uselessness of Day 1's. Has Mith and Legate as innocent, unsure over Lommy and Volo and little on anyone else. Votes Gwath with fair reasoning.

Mith - started off the thread very amusingly, but little of substance. Claims we won't get any double revelations, but I think it's still possible, one should never underestimate the deviosity of werewolf players. On the statistics again, something I am rarely a fan of so early on. Is clearly having fun though. Playing for fun rather than to win, which suggests innocent to me. Some suspicion of Nog.

Nerwen - little there. Suspicion of Gwath, Lhuna, Legate and either Nog or Mith.

Noggie - picked up on Mith's mentioning of Gifted's as well, same ideas as me there. Arguing himself in circles over her though, so as normal. Kneejerk reaction on Oddwen, Gwath and Lhuna and thinks Lommy innocent. Agrees with Lommy about Gwath and Legate but thinks Oddwen innocent. Thinks Volo and Lhuna could be a wolvish pair.

Oddwen - some randomness.

Lommy - I am your semi-nemesis? I was not aware of this! I knew about morm and Lhuna (lover-traitor) but alright, I'll have another. A little bit accusative, or at least feeling somewhat sharp in the way she questioned Mith. Not sure about her mentioning her own flip flop, especially since it wasn't really one. Picks up on Nog and Mith 'interacting', though I'd say they hadn't done an enormous amount of that. Thinks Legate and Gwath are overthinking what Lhuna did and some suspicion of Volo and Oddwen, all with some fair reasoning. Has Mith, Agan and Lhuna innocent. The person who has just decided you're a wolf and you say 'oh yes they're innocent', well that's an old wolvish trick and I'm not sure Lommy would be that obvious, but it's possible.

Volo - votes for himself, which is about the most unhelpful thing you can do on Day 1 but we're clearly going to get nothing else out of him for the Day.

Nothing from sally or the Elf Warrior, hopefully they'll appear before the Day is out. But now, I must vote.

Innocent:
Agan
Lhuna
Mith
Nerwen
Volo

Guilty:
Gwath
Legate
Nog
Lommy

Everyone else I'm not sure about. Of those I find suspicious I am tempted to vote Gwath or Legate for a couple of reasons. First I don't want to vote Nog because I have an automatic reaction of suspicion. Lommy I don't feel is suspicious enough to warrant a vote. Both Gwath and Legate argue themselves in circles about each other as if deliberately trying not to come to a final decision, but Legate does it for other people as well so is more irritating with it. Therefore:

++LEGATE

[Gwathagor]

I don't like these myths that have sprung up around me - if they go on much longer, they'll become tradition, and then they'll haunt me for the rest of the game, even after they are unrecognizably far from the truth.

Myth #1: I chime in with people. Reality: I've posted twice, and spoken my mind both times. Granted, my first post was not helpful.

Myth #2: I'm trying to flatter Legate so that he'll help me out later. Reality: I stated that Legate, as usual, seems rational. This is a truth universally acknowledged throughout the Downs, and, if anything, it puts me more on my guard because I am a sucker for rational arguments.

Myth #4: Me and Legate are arguing circles around each other. Reality: I posted a brief paragraph mentioning Legate.

Ok. I am going to try to read through the thread again. I need to narrow my suspicions, which at this point, include just about everyone.

X-ed with Aganzir

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Myth #2: I'm trying to flatter Legate so that he'll help me out later. Reality: I stated that Legate, as usual, seems rational.

It looks like that because of my inability to see anything rational about Legate's posts at the beginning of the day.

edit: xed with Nog

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Last time Legate-sika said so he was a wolf. I have no reason to assume he is this time different.

Oh really did I? I thought this is the first time. Now what to make out of this (since you apparently were innocent back then, but I wasn't, so...)

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Myth #2: I'm trying to flatter Legate so that he'll help me out later. Reality: I stated that Legate, as usual, seems rational. This is a truth universally acknowledged throughout the Downs, and, if anything, it puts me more on my guard because I am a sucker for rational arguments.

Well, being a little immodest, it may be a truth universally if you say so, but it definitely was not true in my opening posts, really. I lacked sleep and even if you said the core of my thoughts was good or you agree with it or something, okay, but it most definitely was not rational! And when even I say that, you surely can't give me that

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Myth #4: Me and Legate are arguing circles around each other. Reality: I posted a brief paragraph mentioning Legate.

This, on the other hand, is true. But that speaks nothing about Gwath, but about the person who said that... *googles around*

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

because currently I have the feeling I want to vote someone who won't get lynched and have my conscience clear because I'm at loss with this...

Ha! Another Frollo!

Originally Posted by Lommy

I feel like I'm suspecting them just because I have to suspect someone and not because their behaviour genuinely looks wolvish to me. It's like I note some behaviour that could be a sign of wolvishness and make it my suspicion because I have nothing else to go on. It doesn't feel good. I really hope someone starts revealing their furry side and soon, ---

I haven't quite decided yet whether this honest whining is that of a wolf or innocent.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lhuna really creeps me out. She hasn't exactly "reacted" to my suspicions but has been posting innocentish stuff all Day. But then I found that she thought me one of her main candidates without stating any reason for it. Now is that an innocent retaliation-reaction or a lycanthropic effort of spreading suspicion for a possibly dangerous adversary?

A fair point about Lhuna not reacting to your suspicion. But I'm not sure what you meant by saying she didn't state a reason for suspecting you. Do you mean she didn't say that in the post in which she declared you as one of her top suspects, or that she didn't give proper reasons for you being either a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent?

Originally Posted by Nog

Agan's questioning of the grounds for the suspicions & her opposition to Gwath's suspiciousness speak good of her as wolves would love to cling into any generally shared suspicion whenever there's one and Gwath has been mentioned as suspicious by a few already.

Actually, I suspect Gwath too. I just didn't find hating day ones a reason to do so.

Originally Posted by Nog

But I'm also feeling a bit uneasy with a situation where someone will be automatically looked upon as an innocent just because she says she is. I mean a few of you have already kind of declared her innocent just because of that.

She's someone I'm not going to vote today, not one innocence of whose I'll be sure for the rest of the game.

Given their interaction, I might be inclined to consider Lhuna and Legate fellow wolves.

Another one I'm not going to vote today is Kath. She shares my suspects and arguments in an innocent-looking way.

edit: xed with Gwath

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kath

Legate - some random stuff, and then it's suspicion of Nog and Mith which is immediately backtracked, especially over Nog. Again then with Lommy as well. So having stated Mith, Nog and Lommy are suspect he then immediately turns his statement round on all three, yet still ends up with Mith in his suspicion list. Looks at Gwath but makes no sure decision.

I don't like the simple and nothing-saying analysis of me, but whatever. How should I say that... if I were a wolf and wanted to lynch me, I would surely find better way to express evidence why I am guilty. But this is not like it. I thought about a possiblilty that she may be the wolf and not making direct accusations, simply hoping to get me down. And for example there could be other reasons, like that Gwath is a fellow wolf and she wants to bring forward another lynchee the people might eventually vote for. I may be of course overcomplicating it. But anyway. Also...

Originally Posted by Kath

Mith - started off the thread very amusingly, but little of substance. Claims we won't get any double revelations, but I think it's still possible, one should never underestimate the deviosity of werewolf players. On the statistics again, something I am rarely a fan of so early on. Is clearly having fun though. Playing for fun rather than to win, which suggests innocent to me. Some suspicion of Nog.

This actually troubles me more. Thinking of the former, Kath did not have much time as she said, so whatever. But this? There have been looots of people who obviously "played for fun rather than to win" or such, but Kath never called it like that except for Mith's case. So, is she making a defense of fellow wolf? If Mith is a wolf, Kath may be as well?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Ha! Another Frollo!

And stop saying that, I always read "Frodo"

EDIT: X-ed since my last post.

[Nogrod]

Just off to the kitchen...

Volo -> Volo
Lhuna -> Gwath
Kath -> Legate
Nerwen -> Lhuna

Legate looks better right now and Gwath's "myths" feel more reasonable than not.

I might go for Lhuna today based on reasons I gave in #41.

Also...

Originally Posted by Aganzir

A fair point about Lhuna not reacting to your suspicion. But I'm not sure what you meant by saying she didn't state a reason for suspecting you. Do you mean she didn't say that in the post in which she declared you as one of her top suspects, or that she didn't give proper reasons for you being either a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent?

What I meant was that she mentioned myself as one of her top-candidates without giving a reason why was that. Of the others (Gwath and Nerwen) she made points about. Saying one is "a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent" can hardly be counted as an argument as such... without further reasoning.

And she's too good a player to just retaliate a suspicion for suspicion if innocent.

EDIT: X'd with a few + added Nerwen's vote

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What I meant was that she mentioned myself as one of her top-candidates without giving a reason why was that. Of the others (Gwath and Nerwen) she made points about. Saying one is "a sneaky wolf or a trigger-happy innocent" can hardly be counted as an argument as such... without further reasoning.

Maybe because she hadn't said anything about them earlier.

Gwathy, see my post #49, I asked you something. Last game you were a wolf you got too far by ignoring suspicions and questions, and I won't let it happen again.

I think it's rather hasty to say Volo looks like a wolf because of his vote. My opinion is that he's crazy enough to do it even as innocent, but even if someone else had done it I wouldn't consider it so suspicious.
I would say it's strange indeed that there's such an ado about it...

I am likely to vote either Legate, Gwath or Lhuna today.

edit: xed with two Gwathys

[Gwathagor]

Sloppy reading on my part, sorry.

My point was that it seems strange to claim that wolves don't make plans. After all, they DO conspire for 24 hours.

[Mithalwen]

Mind you they (I assume) are as much in the dark as us about gifteds. They can't be certain they haven't been picked as a first night seer dream. As a consequence they have perhaps increased dilemma about mentioning their packmates names - not mentioining is as potentially incriminating as the reverse. I remember in my second mod-game it was early doors because Boroseer88effectively bagged two wolves in one. Anyway I have an idea who I am voting for but I shall keep that to myslef pending a swift reread.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Sloppy reading on my part, sorry.

My point was that it seems strange to claim that wolves don't make plans. After all, they DO conspire for 24 hours.

No problem.

My point was that they often make less plans than the villagers think - I've been in a pack which came up with brilliant plans, but more often I've also been in packs where there wasn't much planning and we just decided to do what felt best in the days. And therefore what villagers think an obvious wolf plot isn't always that for the wolves, who often don't have as much experience with plotting as villagers think.

So the possibility of three good players making an "obvious" wolf plan without the intent to double bluff shouldn't be completely ruled out either.

I'm not sure if this makes any sense to anyone.

edit: xed with Mith

[Gwathagor]

I don't like the way Nogrod directs the flow of suspicion with his all-encompassing posts. It seems very controlling to me, like he's some kind of master-wolf. Or a mafia boss.

Lhuna's vote against me seems flippant ("that's the way the cookie crumbles").

Volo..... based on his self-vote looks, to me, more like a remarkably bold wolf than just a crazy villager. The most obvious conclusion that we're going to draw is that he must be innocent, because no sane wolf would do something so stupid. Right? So, Volo has now established himself as having a reputation for innocence without making enemies by voting against someone else.

This puts Volo at the top of my list with Nogrod and Lhuna.

Everybody else is mildly suspicious - which means that no one is. Ha.

I want to hear more from Oddwen and The Elf Warrior. We have lynched people for silence in the past...and we could do it again. Of course, silence usually is the safest defense.

EDIT: Wow. Crossed with everyone since/including Legate.

[Gwathagor]

Yikes better vote and avoid that last minute rush. Nothing good ever comes out of last minutes rushes.

++Lhunardawen

At first I was going to vote against Volo, but I decided I needed more substantial evidence. Maybe tomorrow.

[Gwathagor]

I messed up, we still have another hour until DL. Sorry.

[Thinlómien]

I go for a nice evening walk and what do I see when I come back? A flood of posts and even a couple of votes. Great.

Nerwen looks quite reasonable and innocent to me. Which, according to my previous experiences of her, doesn't mean anything. I hope to hear more of her toMorrow.

Legate seems more innocent now. He seems reasonable and posts a lot without saying anything that seems very wolvish, so I'm not very alarmed about him anymore. Besides although I did not understand his reply to me considering the Lhuna-Gwath thing it seemed quite innocent.

Kath seems like her normal self - the same self she is whether she's innocent or not. Her behaviour doesn't alarm me, anyway, so I'm not very alarmed. (Wow, that was smartly phrased...) I don't agree with her logic all the time, though, and it startles me how she lists five people as innocent and four as guilty without blinking an eye and cheerily says she's not sure about others. Her way of expressing herself is quite black.and-white and slightly creeps me out. Hmm... seems like there's something alarming after all.

Originally Posted by Kath

Lommy - I am your semi-nemesis? I was not aware of this!

I said ex-semi-nemesis... besides I think I might have misused the word but I think we used to suspect each other all the time but not anymore...

Originally Posted by Agan

Given their interaction, I might be inclined to consider Lhuna and Legate fellow wolves.

That crossed my mind too.

Gwath the mythbuster looks more innocent than he did a while ago.


edit: xed with Gwath, Agan, Gwath, Mith and Agan

[Mithalwen]

++Nogrod

Talks a lot without sticking his neck out. A few people have said that one of us must be a wolf. I know it ain't me (and that this won't look brilliant if I am wrong).

He seems to be attacking then backing off.... and ... well there have been a couple of games where I haven't backed similar hunches and rued it.

[Nogrod]

I'd hope to hear more from Oddwen and the Elf Warrior. And Mith & Legate could be more open with their thoughts as well... or are you people just leaving all options open for the last minute madness to vote in a way that suits your ends?

If nothing better comes forwards I'd be ready to check this Lhuna - Volo connection by voting Lhuna as I see you others downplay Volo's actions toDay.

Yes I know Volo might do something like that if innocent as well but that self-vote at that kind of situation screams more a wolf to me than not. Gwath indeed put it quite nicely:

Originally Posted by Gwath

The most obvious conclusion that we're going to draw is that he must be innocent, because no sane wolf would do something so stupid. Right? So, Volo has now established himself as having a reputation for innocence without making enemies by voting against someone else.

Although I must say that seeing someone accompanying my argumets is one of the most suspicious things I know in WW... so I'm not going to trust you more for that Gwath. And the same goes for the Elf Warrior. Saying openly you think I'm innocent doesn't make me think the same of you even if it rubs me the right way like Gwath's agreement about the suspiciousness of Volo & Lhuna.

EDIT: X'd with Mith

[The Elf-warrior]

Nogrod,I can see why you would reason so, but I disagree. Maybe I'm an innocent who is looking for guidance, and who is persuaded by what you say.

++Aganzir

I agree with you about wolf plans, and you seem all right, but I'm going on a hunch. Please forgive me if you aren't a wolf.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Please forgive me if you aren't a wolf.

I forgive you if you aren't a wolf yourself.

++ Legate

Because I suspect him more and Lhuna will probably die anyway.

edit: xed with Gwath and Lommy

[Gwathagor]

Volo -> Volo
Lhuna -> Gwath
Kath -> Legate
Nerwen -> Lhuna
Gwath -> Lhuna
Mith -> Nog
Nog -> Lhuna
TEW -> Aganzir
Lommy -> Gwath
Aganzir -> Legate

[Oddwen]

I truly, truly apologize for disappearing yesterday...I got the times mixed up...

But wow, tough luck.

I am inclined to disagree with the theory that Lhuna dreamed of an innocent - reading over her posts the phrases regarding her suspicions seem to stand out to me...then again, she suspected three (Gwath, Nerwen, Nogrod), but only voted one...this sentence is going nowhere.

Then again, she may have dreamed of someone who hadn't even posted before she had to log off, such as Kath or Elf Warrior, and was unable to find something to jump at or defend...

Anyway. Gwath is the one looking most suspicious to me, based on Lhuna's reasonings behind her vote - Mith I'm thinking is leaning close to innocent - I'm feeling some tension from Lommy - I am looking over the rest of you but I am forgetting words and will be back in the morning.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, nothing new to say about today after a reread.

Now onto Gwath and Legate...


Gwath about Legate

Day1
#27 Calls him reasonable and impenetrable, but doesn't like his "honest gut feelings". Ends up having no real opinion on him.
#51 Busts a myth about him trying to flatter Legate: says he merely called Legate rational and that it's an universal truth. Also busts a myth about him and Legate arguing in circles with each other: says he merely posted a brief paragraph about Legate.

Day2
- nothing this far -


Legate about Gwath

Day1
#32 Teases him with a nickname, says he makes him feel a little uneasy and both agrees and disagrees with him about Lhuna's lists, wonders/is suspicious of Gwath calling him reasonable. Concludes: "But overall, it's not that bad with Gwath. He's in the yellow zone for me (that's next to the green zone, which is okay). Gwathwolf used to be worse as far as I could tell from an observer-point."
#48 Says he's in his "yellow zone", but doesn't like him being a probable lynch-candidate. Strays from the Gwath-topic to talk about lynching quiet people, says that we could always lynch Gwathagor the following day.
#54 Speculates that Gwath could be Kath's fellow.
#55 Replies to Gwath's mythbusting: says he was not reasonable in the beginning of Day1 and that Gwath's other mythbusting concerning the two of them is right and implies claiming something like the "myth" is suspicious.
#73 Says he will leave voting Gwath for that day since he has lately seemed more reasonable.

Day2
#90 Doubts Lhuna dreamt of Gwath.
#111 Repeats the point mentioned above, although says she could have done so.


Conclusion: Just as bad as I thought it was. I really don't like the way they flip-flop and are indesicive about each other. They also defend each other a bit sneakily: Gwath does not defend only himself in his myth-busting and Legate is a tad too certain Lhuna didn't dream of Gwath. Also, his decidion not to vote Gwath looks a bit bad.
This of course doesn't prove that they're wolves. But if one of them is, I'd have a careful look at the other. There's something odd in here.


edit: xed with Mith, Nerwen and Mith