Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Cailín]

Oh, Eomer, darling, love of my life...

What a dreadful, horrible day

A terrible sadness is on your wife

And all guinea pigs squeak in dismay


My apologies for the pitiful rhyme, but this tragedy has quite robbed me of any gift for poetry I may have had. I cannot believe this happened, and cannot even think on it now. Who will look after my girls now? Who will discipline Durelin? Who will look after me? And the poor pigs? I must be strong.

---

Let me add to the EW and Wolves discussion (my future son-in-law phantom already managed to evoke some strong reactions, which is always good) that we should attempt to do both find the wolves and guess at the EW’s identity, as Izzy says. This may seem a pretty useless comment, but let us not forget that we have little to go on and our success in lynching wolves (the villager’s task) somewhat depends on us figuring out who the EW is.

The EW will be someone with
- lots of time on her hands (Nogrod used she in the narration, but I seem to remember we shouldn’t think this significant)
- confidence in her ww abilities. She has to live up to quite a legend, after all.
- a slightly twisted personality

This already eliminates half the village, I think (though all here have twisted personalities, and do not try to deny it).

And, another point the phantom made which I wish to highlight again. If I were the EW, I would also choose from among our less famous, vocal and illustrous villagers. The EW has no great interest in finding out who the GW is. So the EW will probably be scrying those she does not really suspect of wizardry and are able to fly under the radar for a long time. At least, she will probably avoid choosing those who the GW is likely to suspect of evil wizardry, because losing a wolf to a nightly scry would be very inconvenient. Yet, this is all speculation. We cannot know what the EW would do, because we do not know her identity.

I am also with my daughter, Lhuna. Let us hunt some wolves today and revenge my husband’s death. For old times’ sake, I will start with accusing my lovely, yet suspicious neighbour Lalaith, whom I would turn instantly if I were the EW.

[Macalaure]

The one disappointing thing about this village is that Nogrod isn't available for me to heavily suspect him on the first Day on nearly non-existent grounds.

Anyway, I wonder whether wolves will act differently in this game than usual. I mean, usually they fall somewhere in the interval between just staying hidden and actively trying to lynch innocents. Here, they could have the additional task to divert our eyes (and the eyes of GW and seer) from the EW. Also, since the wolves can be remade, the loss of one is not as crucial as it is in a regular village. This might be less careful about not being lynched than usual.

Originally Posted by Roa

Your idea to find the EW is flawed. For one thing, that may or may not help us in finding wolves, which ought to be our primary concern. If we can lynch wolves instead of innocents, then not only do we keep the numbers low (and so prevent double kills for a little while) we help the GW with her most vital task, which is to leave us with the best odds possible. The GW will find the EW. It's her, job not ours. We should focus on wolf hunting. It's our best bet for survival.

Why don't we just go for whoever simply appears evil? We benefit from both, finding the EW and lynching wolves. The only thing we don't benefit from is being single-minded.

Originally Posted by Roa

I'm not saying you're on the evil team, but I'm keeping an eye on you.

Now I just talked about wolves maybe acting differently, and then I spot a classic "I'm not suspicious, but I'm suspicious" already on the first page.

Originally Posted by Roa

Or the EW could have counted on people assuming that no one obvious would be picked and so picked the most obvious. We can't know for certain, and so we shouldn't rule anyone out.

The GW is going to search for the EW with his scries. Picking someone as a wolf who could be assumed to be the EW is unwise, because the chance that the person will be turned back into an ordo due to the searching GW is high.


At this point, I'm suspicious of Roa being a wolf, not just because I disagree with her on much, but because the opinions stated by her fit to what a wolf would state, in my opinion. Shasta agreeing with Roa in #36 raised my eyebrow, too. Lhuna (#42) also sided with Roa, but less shadily.

morm, tp, and THE Ka are unlikely to be the EW, because they're too controversial.

Cailin just baffled me by first elaborating on the EW (and narrowing his identity down just a tad too much, I think) and then closing with the suggestion to go for wolves.

Other than that: cluelessness.

[A Little Green]

"Well, well, well. What mess have you gotten into, little ones? Let old Greenie sort this out. I'll see... herb-tea, anyone?"

---

Firstly, I'm quite baffled by the phantom (actually, I'm quite baffled about everything... ).

Originally Posted by tp

You are right of course that the WWs might have been given certain... erm... directions... I don't want to be too specific here... I'd rather not have people start posting their thoughts on the matter (ie giving examples).

I don't get the meaning of this, I'm afraid, and I don't like the way it's phrased. Also, I'm uneasy about the way he seems to be deliberately attention-seeking with all the "if I was the EW" and "please scry me" and

Originally Posted by tp

Aw, too bad. I lost my future father-in-law! Ah, well at least he died knowing his daughter would be happy.

That is if she lives through this.

-comments. I don't think the EW would behave that way though, and I'm not entirely convinced that a wolf would, either, but... There's something weird about him, but I can't say what. (Mac, my son, whatever did you and that Rikae feed him when he was a kid?)

Other than that, I'm inclined to agree with my sister-in-law Izzie that we don't need to make a choice between hunting the EW and hunting the wolves. I don't think we're unable to concentrate on both.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Mac, my son, whatever did you and that Rikae feed him when he was a kid?

Calvados, hard cider, Äbbelwoi, applejack, and Cidre Brut.

[Rikae]

I'm sorry I'm late. I was trapped in a London Plane tree all night long. I lost my bag in that accursed tree too - and now I escape to find Roa's husband, and my sister-in-law's sister-in-law's husband murdered! What a horrible day - I need buttered scones and tea now, not tomorrow!
Macalaure, dear, I wonder if you aren't turning your old animosity toward Nogrod onto my sister, and if so, shame on you. I believe she spoke sensibly -I would have answered The Phantom similarly myself, if I had been here. We should look for wolves. After all, even if we find the EW, she has time to make this a wolf-heavy village before she can be defeated. In fact, a day we attempt to lynch the EW is a day we can't lynch a wolf. It is best if the seer and the GW focus on that, and we do all we can to reduce the number of wolves. It is certainly not a given that we will lynch innocents four days in a row - in fact, that would take quite a streak of bad luck or truly lousy playing on our part! The wolves might not know each other, but they also might - and they might shift from one day to the next, but might also not. Certainly they don't change roles all at once, and though it may be more difficult, I think they can be tracked like any other wolves.
Anyway, although TPs advice and behavior were strange, I don't actually find them suspicious at the moment. I do find some of morm's words somewhat disquieting, though. To find a statement about this game's confusing rules suspicious is ill-founded. Frankly, the possibilities make my head hurt, too. Not only this, but I find his way of narrowing the field of possible wolves to be bad advice of the sneaky sort. Not that I think this sort of speculation is a valid way of finding wolves, but if I were the EW, I would choose players I felt were good survivors. After all, the EW can't advise the wolves during the day, not even in code (I doubt very highly she would reveal herself to them) so they are on their own to some extent. Besides, this game has so many strong players, such players don't stand out as they normally would, so there is little reason for the EW to avoid choosing them.
Also, if I were the EW, I would not scry you, son, simply because I don't want to spoil you.

EDIT: X'd with Mac and Volo

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I can't remember who said what exactly (it's late for me), but it seems like the key here is to try to track down the Evil Wizard, because he/she is constant whereas the wolves can change any day. In the couple of games that I have played, a case is usually built against a player over a period of several days, based on voting records and other accumulated evidence and suspicion. Hardly ever is the first person lynched a wolf, which I think demonstrates that a single day is rarely enough to identify a baddie, which is why I think it's better to make a concerted effort to find the EW, than to scramble about every day trying to flush out that day's unique wolf line-up. No, I'm not saying "don't look for wolves." But I do think most of our energy should be directed towards tracking down the EW. In my opinion.

I doubt the Wolves will change that much, but you pretty much sum it up, if you ask me. The discussion between EW and the Wolves is probably quite working, but one thing they most certainly can't do is make plans with player names in them. For the EW to reveal herself to the Wolves or the Wolves to each others is to risk all for plans with names. The whole team loses if one of the Wolves is scried in that situation and that is madness!
So: I think that there might be quite similar discussion between the Baddies as in more conservative game, but only without names - which is a big handicap if you think about it. So, so: We Wolves are just as clueless about who's who as the rest of us (exceptions being the Wizards and the Seer). I'm not even sure if the Wolves are as aware of their "guilt" (whatever that means) as in conservative games. After all sending a kill list is hard if names can't be discussed openly and in the end it's the EW who decides who die. So, so, so: It kinda all points at the EW... :S

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Okay, so we know there aren't connections between the wolves as they probably don't know of each other. So we should look for a different connection...and that'd be between the EW and the wolves. By lynching wolves, we will have better clues to who the EW may be.

Ha, nope! By scrying we get a better idea who the EW is. By killing the Wolves we get very vague ideas. If we scry them they will be able to tell what kind of things they have discussed at Night and that gives many more ideas than by just killing. Of course, a kill isn't a waste of a Wolf, but much more is gained by a successful scry. Actually I'd say that the GW is better at dealing with the Wolves than the village, meaning that a lynch is more effective on the EW than the scry and the other way round with Wolves:
1. Wolf - scry: Baddies lose one player, goodies gain.
2. Wolf - lynch: Baddies lose one player.
3. EW - scry: EW revealed to GW.
4. EW - lynch: EW revealed to all.
1. is better than 2. and 4. is better than 3. Ah, but for heaven's sake, why don't we just search for Baddies and not discuss how we should do it and whether we should search for only some baddies and not others. Come on!

Originally Posted by Cailín

And, another point the phantom made which I wish to highlight again. If I were the EW, I would also choose from among our less famous, vocal and illustrous villagers. The EW has no great interest in finding out who the GW is. So the EW will probably be scrying those she does not really suspect of wizardry and are able to fly under the radar for a long time. At least, she will probably avoid choosing those who the GW is likely to suspect of evil wizardry, because losing a wolf to a nightly scry would be very inconvenient. Yet, this is all speculation. We cannot know what the EW would do, because we do not know her identity.

I would imagine the EW trying to scry (or wasn't it curse) Innocents.
I strongly doubt that the EW has solely chosen her Wolves from "our less famous, vocal and illustrous villagers". Thinking that way is dangerous, dangerous! If I were an EW I'd put a bit from her a bit from there. One or two "famous, vocal and illustrous villagers", one or two less so and one or two of completely not so (if we have any of those around). It is easier to hide for the Wolves if they aren't all non-vocal. However, the Wolves are probably not as actively trying to control the daily discussions as in normal games, because they know so little themselves.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

At this point, I'm suspicious...blahblahblah

Finally, I agree with Mac that we should finally start doing something that couldn't be done on the admin thread before the start of the game.


edit: Xd with Greenie and Mac

[Nogrod]

A wizard may scry the same person every Night if she so wishes.

[Cailín]

I strongly doubt that the EW has solely chosen her Wolves from "our less famous, vocal and illustrous villagers". Thinking that way is dangerous, dangerous!

Dangerous? Perhaps. If I were the Evil Wizard, I would choose those players who are unlikely to be scried by the Good Wizard. And if I were the Good Wizard, I would scry those people whom I suspect of Evil Wizardry. I am merely making an attempt to define each group.

My List of Wolves

Lalaith: The perfect wolf. I have always said it.

Izzy: Flies under the radar in a charming, yet lethal submarine manner. In a village as this, it’s an important skill.

Aganzir: Clever. Excellent survivor.

Cailín: Beloved by all, unlikely to get lynched. Yea, I’d choose me.

Kitanna: Another good survivor, not too controversial and may be overlooked by the GW.

Kath: A grizzled werewolf veteran. She could lead a team to victory without getting much attention.

Legate: Sensible, matter-of-fact. Not very lynchable.

Eonwe: New to werewolves. Will probably not be lynched. On the other hand, now the phantom has mentioned the village will have already lost if he’s the evil wizard, he will probably be dead by tomorrow.

Volo: Loud, vocal, but not too controversial and therefore well-liked.

Mormegil: Will undoubtedly not survive till the end, but will live long enough to seriously damage his opponents.

Lhuna: A very unwilling wolf, but a good one nonetheless.

My List of non-Wolves

Lommy: Too popular. She will probably die being scried by two wizards at once, if she’s not a wizard herself.

TP: Too controversial. Too confident. A wizard wants to rule.

Diamond18: Will have offended too many players by Day4 to ever stay alive.

Macalaure: A likely wizard candidate.

Rikae: Too argumentative. Will make enemies. Enemies with pitchforks.

Roa_Aoife: See Rikae. It’s a family thing.

Nilp: Too unpredictable. Hazardous and Tom Bombadil-esque with power.

Brinniel: Dies too easily.

Durelin: Too argumentative and unpredictable.

The Others

Nerwen: Quite argumentative. Could go either way.

The KA, Gwathagor, Sally, McCaber: Not familiar with these players.

Shasta: is somewhat like Brinniel, yet he may have played more games since I formed this impression of him, and may have altered his style.

A Little Green: Will find some way to become suspicious.

Celuien: Would make an excellent wolf according to my terms, but has always functioned much better as an innocent.


No doubt some among you will find this list suspicious and controversial (probably just by virtue of being a list, which I know some of you hate). But it is what I would have done were I a wizard (which I'm not )

[mormegil]

++Brinniel

I'm not sure when I'll be around and I'll never really be caught up this day so let's call it a hunch, shall we.

[Thinlómien]

Oh, Sally dear, I'm here now, safe and sound. I just had some problems with my birds, the strange blackbird makes them anxious. The penguins don't like it at all, I daresay. But your dad and your sister... I don't know. Kath last visited us yesterday, as you know, and I haven't seen her after that... And as for my husband, the last time I saw him, he was making some sort of sandwiches. I do hope that they turn up soon. They're alive - as far as I know - unlike some. I'm so sorry and shocked to see our venerable judge and the brave husband of my sister-in-law die, but we must not dwell on that grief any longer, but focus on the horrors at hand.

In the great whether to find the EW or the wolves debate, I'm inclined to side with Mrs Roa and the others agreeing with her. Our primary duty is to find the wolves. If we find the EW, it's good, but it's not what we should be precisely aiming at. So, in my opinion, we should concentrate on finding wolves, but be aware of EWish vibes as well, and we should primarily lynch wolves, but if someone looks more like EW than anyone looks like a wolf, we should go on and vote him. Like Aunt Izzie and my dear big brother Mac said, there really is no contradiction here. I think it's more a question of priorities.

I kind of wanted to be a nasty mother-in-law, but Brinniel's words make sense. I think she brought up one of the most fundamental points about looking for wolves and EW here:

Originally Posted by Brinn

Okay, so we know there aren't connections between the wolves as they probably don't know of each other. So we should look for a different connection...and that'd be between the EW and the wolves. By lynching wolves, we will have better clues to who the EW may be.

Even if it may be a little, we may find the EW (almost typed "BW" ) by looking at how people have treated the dead wolves and who have they been.

This rather unchaste young girl, Aganzir, doesn't quite sit right with me. To be honest, something in her cheery and flirty manner annoys me. (I wonder if it's because I can imagine what sort of extremely irritating expression characteristic to her she is having when smirking behind her laptotp and typing. ) Normally, when she grabs my attention this way, she's innocent (she's more careful as a wolf, I think), but now my gut feeling tells me that might not be so. I'm keeping an eye on her.

THE Ka seems a bit too confused to be a wizard, or a wolf either. But one should not forget how treacherous she can be...

I think tp does not look partciularly suspicious. I think he's being his own baffling self trying to give a rather intimidating and smart impression... And I think he's just being intentionally pessimistic, whatever purpose that is supposed to serve. It could be to make the evil team too confident, it could be to make the goodies lose motivation or be scared or just to amuse himself. Whatever he says should be taken with a pinch of salt.

Morm's attitude makes me think he's probably innocent. But of course I cannot be sure.

Originally Posted by Gwath

I think it's better to make a concerted effort to find the EW, than to scramble about every day trying to flush out that day's unique wolf line-up.

That is a futile point, as the wolf line-up doesn't really change that much...

Volo makes sense here:

Originally Posted by Volo

1. Wolf - scry: Baddies lose one player, goodies gain.
2. Wolf - lynch: Baddies lose one player.
3. EW - scry: EW revealed to GW.
4. EW - lynch: EW revealed to all.

Yet I'm reluctant to follow this idea. The GW should be allowed to do whatever she pleases, and if we start hunting the EW, she is forced to go after the wolves. Besides, there's just one EW but at least three wolves, so finding a wolf would be statictically easier for a dumb mob.

Lastly, I've been looking at the village map and it makes me suspicios of Nerwen and Cailín. I cannot trust anyone who breeds hairless pink guinea pigs or anyone who has a patch for "decent wolves" (like I first read). *would add some nasty smiley if hadn't passed the limit already*


edit: xed with Cailín, morm and Kit

[A Little Green]

Did anyone else wonder at this?

Originally Posted by Volo

We Wolves are just as clueless about who's who as the rest of us (exceptions being the Wizards and the Seer).

(I accidentally posted this as Lommy and deleted it, in case someone saw it and wondered.)

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Did anyone else wonder at this? (I accidentally posted this as Lommy and deleted it, in case someone saw it and wondered.)

I had not noticed but I doubt it is anything but a typo. If anything, it makes Volo look more innocent, because werewolves would be more careful to avoid mistakes such as that.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Brinn

Correction, I believe the term is warlock...not wizard.

In Finnish there's just one word for a male witch. :P

Originally Posted by phantom

In other villages the WWs work together and know their fellow pack members. In this village... well, honestly, there's no way the EW told all his WWs who he is and who their fellows are. That would be too risky.

The way this is written is odd. It looks like formulated, something you have decided to say beforehand. And I wouldn't be so early wholly ruling out the possibility that the wolves know one another and/or the EW.

Originally Posted by sally

"After all, I'm not the one dating my cousin."

And I am not the one cheating on his girlfriend, or the one making out in public with someone you knew had a girlfriend.

Originally Posted by Shasta

"Or, child, I do wonder about that... ruffian you choose to cavort with-"

Ah but I have no worries about him. I know what he was doing for the most part of last night. ...At least I suppose it was him and not Gwath. They look so same I can't always tell.

Originally Posted by morm

I take statements like this as fairly suspicous comments, all but the bolded one most of all. I don't know why they just don't sit well with me. It always makes me think they are trying to distance themselves with nightly activity.

I often do the same, ie try to find wolves based on how they say things, but I don't really think saying that makes Brinn more suspicious. Mainly because I think so, too.

Originally Posted by Brinn

Okay, so we know there aren't connections between the wolves as they probably don't know of each other.

How come you're so sure?
This looks awfully much like a Brinn-wolf who doesn't know her fellows and states the fact as her opinion as she's afraid she might slip it later.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Now I wonder about others on Cailin's suspected wolf and innocent list. Putting out a list such as that could give the EW ideas.

And if I say "Nerwen is the good wizard and the gifteds are Nilp, Kath and Eönwë!" it will give the EW ideas and she will go after them?
Quite honestly, I assume the wizards have played enough so that they have at least some kind of ideas about what the players are like.

The only suspicious thing I can see about Cailín's list is that making it is an easy way to gain allies by being nice to people. Like, I have never played with her before yet she called me clever - therefore she must be innocent too, since she sees I'm making sense!

Originally Posted by Greenie

Did anyone else wonder at this?

I think it looked like an example of what wolf talk would be like, but that "the rest of us" leaves me baffled.
But I wouldn't count it as an argument neither for nor against Volo yet.

**

Innocent
morm. He makes sense and looks innocent.
Isabell. I agree with her and she looks honest.

Guilty
Ka, because she's always evil.
phantom. In truth he's the EW, and is just bluffing. Ok, well, he looks like he has deliberately chosen the way he plays, and to choose that makes people look unnatural and insincere.
I don't know about sally, but she makes me feel uneasy. Usually she's crazier and somehow less careful.
I don't like Gwath either. The way he says we should be looking for the EW rather than wolves is suspicious. There are others who have said quite the same, but Gwath just makes it look like he were a wolf and trying to distract attention away from himself.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Hardly ever is the first person lynched a wolf, which I think demonstrates that a single day is rarely enough to identify a baddie, which is why I think it's better to make a concerted effort to find the EW

And if an innocent is lynched today and the EW curses a new wolf next night, the wolves will get two kills, and that's certainly what they are aiming at. So wolves shouldn't be looked for?
Brinniel. This is a gut feeling, but she looks a bit too dishonest and a bit too careful.

edit: xed with Celuien, Ka & Legate

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I don't like Gwath either. The way he says we should be looking for the EW rather than wolves is suspicious. There are others who have said quite the same, but Gwath just makes it look like he were a wolf and trying to distract attention away from himself.

And if an innocent is lynched today and the EW curses a new wolf next night, the wolves will get two kills, and that's certainly what they are aiming at. So wolves shouldn't be looked for?

I specifically said that I did NOT mean we shouldn't look for wolves. Don't twist my words, dearest sister-in-law to be.

Because I can't be here during the deadline for RL work reasons, so I have to vote now.

++Sally