Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Durelin]

Cailin's *if I were a Wizard cause I'm not* list is...odd. It seems like the biggest waste of time yet. Even if the EW thought, as Cailin suggested, that they should pick wolves from "among our less famous, vocal and illustrous villagers"...her list really doesn't follow that, in my opinion. And that's all it is, opinion.

Originally Posted by Ka

Don't count me anywhere close to an 'expert' (and I repeat, don't... first time playing DW), but the reason I can see is fear of other wolves you don't yet know about attacking you that Night. Granted at that time the EW hasn't settled on letting all wolves know one another, just a few for strategic purposes. (If that happens, well great for us! Though, I don't think the EW would blunder that much).

Here's another point - if the EW loses a Wolf, I imagine they'll know about it, and they might set the lost Wolf as their remaining Wolves' target, mightn't they?

Anyway.

Ka seems to be playing up the "never played DW, not really sure what's going on" thing. (I mean, I'm hardly confident with all this, but...) Her posts have been rather boring. I'm used to them being a bit more interesting.

Sally's use of the diminutive 'Durie' makes me cringe. Her ridiculously easy vote for phantom causes considerable discomfort. And I agree with Aganzir that she seems to be playing nicely and carefully. In other words she's boring atm.

But, maybe Roa and phantom are wolves together and just don't know it, cause that would be funnnn.

Aganzir bothers me and I don't know why. For one thing, I don't know how she feels comfortable saying much of anything about Isabel. One post, with in-character banter, repeating a bunch of things already said (basically summarizing the whole Roa v. phantom and discussion proceeding from that), and asking one question, also related to the EW and wolves discussion. Hmm, I will definitely be looking at Isabel more...

Is Aganzir the first to suggest that the phantom is a bluffing-like-crazy EW? (morm mentioned that he thinks the phantom probably wouldn't be picked as a wolf early on but could be the EW, but that hardly strikes the same chord.) Well, doesn't matter if she's first. I just find myself uncomfortable with anyone making that suggestion because it's so...easy. I mean, it's the phantom. It's the phantom who's begging for attention. phantom to Evil Wizard...not much of a stretch.

On the other hand, though, I'm for some reason prepared to believe Cailin would post her 'list o' possible wolf choices' even as the EW...a little. So maybe I'm being stupid (or biased...never trusted my mother)... Certainly I am clueless.

< / rambling >

Edit: Crossed with Gwath and Roa.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

although, you'd better stay away from my girlfriend, okay? If you have any problems, it's no longer my concern!

I'm just happy to see her kill you some night then!

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I specifically said that I did NOT mean we shouldn't look for wolves. Don't twist my words, dearest sister-in-law to be.

Yes you said, but the rest of your post looked like how I interpreted it.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Here's another point - if the EW loses a Wolf, I imagine they'll know about it, and they might set the lost Wolf as their remaining Wolves' target, mightn't they?

Yes. But even then there's a possibility that the ranger's protecting the ex-wolf in question - the GW certainly wouldn't want to lose someone who might know a great deal of the evil team's plans.

Originally Posted by Durelin

For one thing, I don't know how she feels comfortable saying much of anything about Isabel.

To be honest I didn't quite even realise she had just one post, but the way it was written looked innocent to me. Surely you aren't assuming I will think so for the rest of the game?
I think you're pretty much grasping at straws there.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Well, doesn't matter if she's first. I just find myself uncomfortable with anyone making that suggestion because it's so...easy. I mean, it's the phantom. It's the phantom who's begging for attention. phantom to Evil Wizard...not much of a stretch.

I've never played with the phantom before I think. But I tend to think everyone should say what they see, and if he looks like a possible EW I rather say it aloud.

[Macalaure]

Thank you for liking me, Legate, and apologies for not being able to return that sentiment.

I'm aware that I need to be careful not to suspect people solely for agreeing with Roa. However, the way you emphasize her point that we just can't know anything about who the wizard might be or who he could have picked is suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Legate

I am not sure about tp. If you ask what they fed him, I would guess they fed him cobblers - but that's (fortunately) impossible.

You simply discard an opinion which you do not share (I only guess so, since you don't address tp's points directly) as cobblery? Very hasty, my friend - demagogic even, if one looks at it ill-meaningly. Some elaboration?

Originally Posted by Legate

Even though someone mentioned the possibility of Wolves given suicidal tasks here, it is still a loss for the EW if a wolf is lynched; she cannot win that way.

I didn't say that. Of course it is still a loss, but not as fatal as in a regular village. Are their tasks suicidal? Unlikely. But he can afford to give tasks which are a little more risky. Sacrificing a wolf for the sake of surviving for one more day himself makes absolute sense to him, for example.


Like: Aganzir, Kitanna, phantom, morm

Some like: Volo, Ka, Sally, Isabellkya, Lommy, Durelin

Only a little like: Lhuna, A Little Green

Not very much like: Shasta (shady agreement with Roa), Cailin (really not sure what to make of her list), Legate

No like: Roa (what I said earlier, plus a simple very bad hunch I got from her last post)

Really not sure: Brinniel, Lalaith, Gwath, Rikae, Celuien, Kath

Still asleep: Nilp, Eonwe, Diamond, Nerwen, McCaber.


PS: Roa, you mixed up my quotes and morm's.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

You simply discard an opinion which you do not share (I only guess so, since you don't address tp's points directly) as cobblery? Very hasty, my friend - demagogic even, if one looks at it ill-meaningly. Some elaboration?

Not sure if I got what in particular you, how to call that, accuse me of, so I will explain what I meant by this: I meant that I don't think phantom would be a wolf, but he could as well be a cobbler given his behavior. However, as no cobblers are in this game, he obviously isn't one. Then, as you read my posts later, going along these lines, my conclusion was that he is probably ordo.

Originally Posted by Uncle Mac

I didn't say that. Of course it is still a loss, but not as fatal as in a regular village. Are their tasks suicidal? Unlikely. But he can afford to give tasks which are a little more risky. Sacrificing a wolf for the sake of surviving for one more day himself makes absolute sense to him, for example.

Of course. But the combination of words"they could have the additional task to divert our eyes from the EW" and immediately following "the wolves can be remade, the loss of one is not as crucial as it is in a regular village", obviously conjures in one's mind the idea of a wolf stepping forward into the village's discussion in order to turn the suspicion on himself and not the EW.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Not sure if I got what in particular you, how to call that, accuse me of, so I will explain what I meant by this: I meant that I don't think phantom would be a wolf, but he could as well be a cobbler given his behavior. However, as no cobblers are in this game, he obviously isn't one. Then, as you read my posts later, going along these lines, my conclusion was that he is probably ordo.

What I meant was exactly this "given his behaviour". You say that it is cobblerish. I personally don't think this conclusion is obvious, so I'd like to see your reasons, especially given the fact that it is a very easy way to discredit a person's opinions as a whole (that's what I meant by "demagogic").

Originally Posted by Legate

Of course. But the combination of words"they could have the additional task to divert our eyes from the EW" and immediately following "the wolves can be remade, the loss of one is not as crucial as it is in a regular village", obviously conjures in one's mind the idea of a wolf stepping forward into the village's discussion in order to turn the suspicion on himself and not the EW.

Ah, I see. It was not in my intent to say that, of course.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think you're pretty much grasping at straws there.

It's clutching. But really, I think you are, too/being defensive. Or maybe you're just frustrated cause you really think I'm an idiot. My argument wasn't just "Isabel's only posted once, Aganzir determines she is innocent, thus Aganzir doesn't look innocent." I didn't take up a whole paragraph just to say that. You make me uncomfortable. I don't know why. Have I played with you before? It shouldn't matter, but...yeah, it probably does.

Edit: Response to Cailin's posty: Uh...reach a consensus? You never reach a consensus in these games, and you never should! Why? Because we're not all on the same side! Also, there is no possible way I am ever compromising. That's what I hate perhaps the most about this game - people always compromising about who to vote for. "Eh, they're not really all that guilty, but it doesn't look like anyone's going to vote for who I really think is guilty, so I'm going to just contribute a useless vote and maybe get lucky."

[Nerwen]

Hello, my friends and relations (most of you are both, come to think of it). I'm so sorry to have deserted our afflicted village in its hour of need. I have been gathering herbs to ease the pain of my brother's death. Like to try some, anyone? No?

For a while, now, I have been standing aside, listening to what others have to say. Which has been as follows:

1. We should try and lynch wolves.

2. No, we should try and lynch the Evil Wizard.

3. No, we should try and lynch them both.

People seem much more reluctant to put forward any method of achieving any of these goals. The only suggestions I've heard have been, "Guess on basis of personality" and, "Lynch people until we find some wolves, and then we'll know who picked them". I don't find either of these plans appealing (as a healer, I shrink from unnecessary bloodshed).

As has been pointed out (much) more than once, we cannot count on spotting wolf interactions, since the wolves may not know who each other are. I don't see why this is such an issue. My training in healing touched on the unpleasant subject of lycanthropy. According to the ancient lore passed on to me from the earliest times, werewolves often don't show much in the way of pack behaviour on Day 1 anyway... but there are other ways in which they may reveal their beastly nature.

Some of them have been known to use diversionary tactics such as

1. Starting/continuing pointless debates

2. Making lots of "empty" posts full of banter or non-specific general statements that seem helpful but aren't when you look at them closely

3. Repeating what other people have said already.

The only problem is that there's been so much of that toDay, it's hard to know where to start.

Edit: X'd since Legate at #77.

[Nerwen]

A thought:

According to the ancient knowledge that has been passed down to me through untold generations of healers, the person sacrificed on Day 1 is usually an innocent– but his or her death is not always in vain, since it may cause the wolves to give themselves away.

Unfortunately, if the wolves don't know each others' identities (or that of the EW), the voting pattern may not help much toMorrow. I'd expect the wolves to be much less ready to jump on the nearest bandwagon than usual.

On the other hand, if they do know each others' identities, all these suggestions to the contrary could be just an attempt to plant a meme in our heads, so we'll ignore the evidence. Okay, maybe that's farfetched, but strange things happen in WW.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The only problem is that there's been so much of that toDay, it's hard to know where to start.

That was Nogrod's original idea.

Greenie's (although I liked calling her Lily) post looks wrong. What she says there is that tp is a Gifted or the GW as if he's not the EW or a Wolf but is neither a normal villager-- And I think such things shouldn't be said aloud! I find such kind of posts suspicious.

Aganzir on the other hand feels more Innocent than usually, though a bit nastier and funnier. I'm not completely sure, but her posts #68 and #75 look quite sincere.

Which brings to Sally and her vote. It looks quite nasty as it comes right after Aganzir's accusation of tp. It's an easy vote, but I won't vote her for just that.

Myself, I find tp a more evil (not meaning he's a more likely Baddie) Fea at the moment. I haven't played with him before, but there's the same quite alarming "don't care" attitude like with Fea, especially when she was a Wolf.

I'm also slightly uneasy about Celuien and Cailín, I can't really say what it is, the way they have phraised their posts or their attitude (mainly Celuien's). I agree with both to some point, but, but, but.

Ok, nothing really decisive from me at the moment.

edit: Xd with Nerwen

[Volo]

My "We Wolves" was a typo (why can I imagine myself saying this even if I were a Wolf), we -> the. By "us" I meant everybody who's not a Wolf.

Originally Posted by Volo

1. Wolf - scry: Baddies lose one player, goodies gain.
2. Wolf - lynch: Baddies lose one player.
3. EW - scry: EW revealed to GW.
4. EW - lynch: EW revealed to all.

Actually two more variations have to be added:
5. Ordo - scry: GW knows the role and maybe assigns a new one.
6. Ordo - lynch: Goodies lose one player.
Drat, I forgot what my point was supposed to be. Probably trying to contradict what I said before, ah well. 5. is slightly better than 6.

I'll be around, but before sending more opinions I'll do some notes and think.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm not sure what's worse: Volo making a statement that can be read as a wolf slip (but I remember an ancestor of him making a wolf slip while being innocent, too ), or A Little Green pointing out the quote - without any opinion of her own - in order to have the mob feast on it while keeping her own hands clean.

Now, son, I didn't (or don't) know what to think about it myself. I felt the need to point it out in case someone else could read something from it. I didn't find it necessary to say "I don't know what to say about it" or "it could be a slip or it could not or... etc".

Originally Posted by Volo

Greenie's (although I liked calling her Lily) post looks wrong. What she says there is that tp is a Gifted or the GW as if he's not the EW or a Wolf but is neither a normal villager-- And I think such things shouldn't be said aloud! I find such kind of posts suspicious.

Actually I never thought he might be the GW or a gifted... To me he feels like neither. (And feel free to call me Lily if it suits you better. I like both. )

Sally and Gwath's votes both made me fairly uneasy, though for different reasons. Sally's, like someone said, looked a bit too easy. Gwath's I don't like because voting without stating any reasons for the choice is both unhelpful (if having suspicions about someone, one should at least reason them a bit if he really wants that one lynched) and irritating and never fails to make me suspicious.

I read Gwath's posts. Maybe I'm slow but I only just realised that he not only voted without stating a reason but also said

Originally Posted by Gwathie

No, I'm not saying "don't look for wolves." But I do think most of our energy should be directed towards tracking down the EW. In my opinion.

Besides my disagreement with his opinion, I don't like the way he states it. The addition of the "In my opinion" to the end feels pointless to me in every other sense than in a looking nice -sense which looks fishy. So, all in all, Gwath looks pretty bad to me at the moment.

Other than that, this debate leaves me quite baffled so that's all from me at the moment. I'll let Lommy post now and meanwhile try to gather some more substance.


EDIT: x-ed with 1 x Volo

[Nerwen]

Oh dear, my poor Grandpa. I hadn't even noticed that "we wolves" thing. But I'd like to point out that an innocent ancestor of Volo's once admitted that it was "possible" he was a wolf. But it's also reasonable of Greenie to point that out. Somebody had to.

Edit: X'd with Niece Aganzir.

[the phantom]

I'm back! Did you miss me?

Sally, you voted for me! Now how can I get scried multiple times if you go and get me lynched! It was most inconsiderate of you. And aren't you even from the same state as I am? Where's your sense of regional brotherhood?

Oh, and as far as deciding who we should try and lynch, the EW or WWs, does it really matter much who we gun for?

In my opinion we're just as likely to lynch a WW gunning for the EW as we are if we were actually trying to lynch a WW. It's not like we have any concrete knowledge to work with. On Day 1 in particular we're just taking a blind shot in the dark. Heck, if we'd purposefully try and lynch the Seer we'd probably have just as good a chance of lynching a WW.

Here are the lynching odds for today-

Ordo- 71%
Gifted- 11%
WW- 11%
Wizard- 7%

If everything today and tonight go according to the odds, tomorrow we will have 2 Wizards, 4 WWs, 3 gifteds, and 16 Ordos. So that would make the lynch odds tomorrow-

Ordo- 64%
WW- 16%
Gifted- 12%
Wizard- 8%

Just something to chew on.

And I have been seeing some of you saying that the scenario I outlined earlier was overly pessimistic. All right then. I'll run a different scenario.

This time, let us assume that the village and the GW, after Day 1, have 50% success at finding WWs- in other words, in every single Night/Day cycle a WW is either lynched or scried by the GW. If you ask me that would be quite an accomplishment. But let's suppose we actually pull it off. What would that mean for our numbers?

(I'm not counting the Wizards in these tallies)
Day 2- 19-4
Day 3- 16-4
Day 4- 15-4
Day 5- 12-4
Day 6- 9-4
Day 7- 6-4
Day 8- LOSE

So, as we can see, even if we have 50% WW-finding success, by the time we are at Day 5 the village will already have a worse villager-WW ratio than other villages start with. Day 6 we'd be in trouble, Day 7 we'd need a miracle, and Day 8 the game would be over.

So, even if we find a WW in every single cycle, we're still probably dead if we haven't found the EW by Day 6. But before that would be very nice.

This is the point I'm trying to make on the issue of finding WWs as opposed to finding the EW. If we find the EW early, we probably win. If we don't find the EW, it doesn't matter how many WWs we find, we'll still lose.

Originally Posted by Ka

I thought tp always wants attention?

Ah, I see that Ka has me figured out.

Yes, yes, I do want attention. I'm thinking it will increase my odds of being scried. I did the same thing in the last Dueling Wizard village. It only partly worked though- the GW did indeed scry me, but the EW instead of scrying me elected to send the WWs after me the very same night.

I'll never forgive you for that Roa!

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Agan is definitely not sitting right with me. Really.

Really? Hmm... don't you actually know Agan? If so then I'd be inclined to trust your opinion of her. Unless of course you are the EW and Agan is one of your WWs and you are throwing the wolf to the lambs to make yourself look good.

Ha ha... throwing the wolf to the lambs...

But what does Agan think of Lommy?

And what do Rikae and Mac think about each other?

And I'd really like to know what Nog thinks about everyone! But he won't tell. I pmed and asked him what all the roles were, but he just said "Silence! Ask again and I'll mod-fire you!"

[Kitanna]

I have missed a lot and have no time to catch up and will miss the deadline by ten minutes tonight. I need to vote now and I shall cast a random vote.

++ Morm

mostly random. Based on past experiences with Morm and nothing else. I apoligize, but I will have much more to say Day 2 when things aren't so hectic at work.

[Eönwë]

Eonwe continued to run towars the village square. He stopped right in the middle of it, panting. There was silence as he entered. "I came as soon as I heard" he said, when he was faced by looks of surprise.
"Nobody told me until I came back from my lumberjack course"
His eyes fell on the poor headless body of Eomer, and that of Nogrod, cloven in two by who knew what.

"And who are you," said someone.

And Eonwe broke into song:

"I'm a lumberjack, and I'm okay,
I sleep all night and I work all day."

And then Rikae joined in with: "He's a lumberjack, and he's okay,
He sleeps all night and he works all day."

Eonwe: I cut down trees, I eat my lunch,
I go to the nonexistent lavatory.
On Wednesdays I go chopping
And have buttered lembas and miruvor!

Rikae: He cuts down trees, he eats his lunch,
He goes to the ..what?
On Wednesdays he goes chopping
And has buttered lembas and miruvor.

He's a lumberjack, and he's okay,
He sleeps all night and he works all day

Eonwe: I cut down trees, I skip and hunt,
I like to press wild symbelmyne.
I put on Melian's girdle,
And hang around in inns.

Rikae: He cuts down trees, he skips and hunts,
He likes to press wild symbelmyne.
He puts on Melian's girdle
And hangs around.... In inns???????

I cut down trees, I jump up high
I am not womanly
I wish I'd been a girlie just my dear Shas-

He ended abruptly, as everyone stared at him strangely. "Thats just what I learned on my "What is a lumberjack, course, I'm sorry" he said defensively. Everyone just nodded in consent, except for a few of the Others. Those of the unknown parentage.

The people continued to have their discussion about werewolves, as they probably had since morning, and by now it was late afternoon.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Really? Hmm... don't you actually know Agan? If so then I'd be inclined to trust your opinion of her. Unless of course you are the EW and Agan is one of your WWs and you are throwing the wolf to the lambs to make yourself look good.

Yes, she's one of my closest friends. Also, A Little Green is my sister. And furthermore, Volo is an RL friend of mine as well. Still, I do not advise you to trust my judgement of any of them. It is probably as biased and faulty as that of someone who does not know them as well as I do. In fact, Agan is better at fooling me than most other ww players I've played with.


edit: xed with Legate, Cailín and Durelin

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

What I meant was exactly this "given his behaviour". You say that it is cobblerish. I personally don't think this conclusion is obvious, so I'd like to see your reasons, especially given the fact that it is a very easy way to discredit a person's opinions as a whole (that's what I meant by "demagogic").

Simply, his behavior overall, how should I label it - just look at his posts. Why should I say anything more? What should I say? Should I label him with some adjective? "Hasty", "harsh", "funny", what? None of these would do, mind you. He behaves like a cobbler would do for me: this is what I said, and that will be enough. However, the conclusion was that I considered him rather innocent because of that. And what is that you have about discrediting a person's opinions, I still don't get it. You mean that I am discrediting phantom's opinions, i.e. as if I were saying "he is cobblerish, therefore don't listen to him"? That was by no way what I meant. I only stated: He seems to me to behave like a cobbler. The same way as if I said that he behaves like a hedgehog or like Eddie Murphy. If there was any conclusion concerning how any of his words should be interpretated, then it was what I said that I think he wanted only to "show off" by these "hey scry me" things and such. But that was all. See above.

Nerwen's posting, especially her post #82 actually looks sensible, and innocentish. However, I can as well imagine her evilly grinning behind this innocent mask. But that's just the tiny bit of feeling. She speaks sense, if nothing else, this far.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

People seem much more reluctant to put forward any method of achieving any of these goals. The only suggestions I've heard have been, "Guess on basis of personality" and, "Lynch people until we find some wolves, and then we'll know who picked them". I don't find either of these plans appealing (as a healer, I shrink from unnecessary bloodshed).

Actually, I also - although I see I already meddled in that - don't see a point in such discussions, respectively: don't see a point in their subject. What people say, and that they interact and actually say something, is another thing and it's good. But otherwise, I think that simply everyone should do what he thinks is the best and then something will happen. Especially on Day 1, it is how it will end anyway, and don't tell me that it isn't true.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Besides my disagreement with his opinion, I don't like the way he states it. The addition of the "In my opinion" to the end feels pointless to me in every other sense than in a looking nice -sense which looks fishy. So, all in all, Gwath looks pretty bad to me at the moment.

Yes, that was the thing I pointed out as well. Hm... there's so many posts that it's good you reminded me of that, and also for myself, I must remind myself that with Gwath, this is always relative... (merely repeating what I said earlier).

LG, Volo, eventually Gwath... still those who figure upper on my list. Now even there are their interactions, which are really interesting "in-group", but then, do the Wolves know each other or don't they? And even if they do, would they interact so? And even if they don't know, what would such interaction mean?

EDIT: x-ed since Nerwen's last post

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I am not sure what Lommy sees on (bah!) Agan... though she seems reasonable in for example her reply to phantom that he should not trust her (this I would expect of her... although thinking of it, she would probably do it in any case), however what I would not expect of her...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh but this is a very good point. Where is her characteristic cheer and carelessness? Is it just because this so different from any other game she's played this far, or are there more sinister reasons behind this?

I don't like this that much. Not sure why, but following someone with a suspicion like that... my dear sally does not seem suspicious in any way, she is behaving like she's always, and also she simply voted and that's it. Nothing weird there.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Ah, but I'm off to take my turn watching the sheep. Did you count them this morning? I'm worried that the WWs will take a liking to them. Be back in a bit.

I think there should be all of them. The wolves may have killed Daddy (Cool) and my dear's uncle, but just let them try to lay their... fangs on our sheep!!!

EDIT: x-ed since Cailín

[Durelin]

Oh, Aganzir - the clutching was a joke (if the 'Thanks' was not sarcastic... ). I don't know which one it 'is', if there it's defined anywhere, not that it even matters. I just remember a Saucepan-Nogrod-me-TGWBS argument fiasco, and then it was clutching, I believe...maybe. I think I might have been accused of straw-clutching. I remember something like "is that the sound of straws being clutched?" or something. Amusing. That was insane.

Ah, yeah...I remember the frustration of Sauce's game...I had a cool role and everything! (And sorry I didn't remember...was frustrated I died on Night 1 and don't think I really followed the game, hah.)

Hmm, your post was too nice to me. Hmm.

I agree with you on Cailin.

Nerwen, a bit more's been said than what you summarize...we got beyond the Wolves and EW topic for the most part. Give us more credit. Also, your entire first post is basically repeating what other's have said to criticize/disagree with it or to put it into a list without really giving anything new. Your second post gives a little. But I mean...discussion can be repetitive and still be productive, right? And you can have a lot of just agreeing and disagreeing and it still be interesting...maybe who people choose to agree and disagree with can mean something.

Why are we bothering to look for new things under the sun, anyway? What game number is this?

*pats the Ka*

Oh, and yeah, my the phantom wanting attention comment was supposed to mean he always wants attention, though it was worded strangely. I was in rant-mode, so I was just typing whatever came out of my head. Probably do that too much.

I've been practically ignoring (definitely 'ignoring' them in my posts) lots of people but dang there are a lot of people in this game...gotta step back maybe. See if Legate or Lommy are looking creepy. And Rikae needs to post more, I miss her and finding her suspicious.

Edit: Whoa, crossed with tp onwards.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Durelin

But I mean...discussion can be repetitive and still be productive, right? And you can have a lot of just agreeing and disagreeing and it still be interesting...maybe who people choose to agree and disagree with can mean something.

That's sort of my point, Durelin.

Edit: X'd with Cailín.

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Celuien

The usual daytime teamwork patterns can't be counted upon as a way to look for evil since there's no way to know if the wolves know each other's identities - and I would doubt that at this early point that they would as there's too much chance of flux from one side to the other.

Okay, so what do you suggest?
I can agree that not much that is apparent is going to be done the first day, though whatever if anything is done toDay will be extremely helpful later on. I don't think in the recorded history of WW on the Downs a village has caught more than one wolf on the first day, or any 'big' scheme of theirs in one swoop.
If that was happening, I'd seriously look into having telepathic devices implanted into my brain.
Though, I don't think it would be smart to just sit around and wait to be eaten, or wait a few days before trying anything. Mistakes happen, you learn from them, and you play on.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I'd expect the wolves to be much less ready to jump on the nearest bandwagon than usual.

If they did, that would be an amazing second Day... Wishful thinking, sorry.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Her posts have been rather boring. I'm used to them being a bit more interesting.

I know, but sorry dear I'm just not in my groove today or toDay. Finals week is nigh and I couldn't think a bit of wit to save my life. I'm trying though, to break off the tunnel vision of 'oh wow, I think I've seriously overestimated my abilities and schedule'.

Originally Posted by Agan

Ka, because she's always evil.

Oh pish, seriously as I've said before, that last game was pure luck. Look at me now, I have the memory of a vegetable.

As for you, I see you're acting your usual self, and no I'm not going to wholly trust you either. Even if you are family. I'm watching you too.

Originally Posted by Agan

Quite honestly, I assume the wizards have played enough so that they have at least some kind of ideas about what the players are like.

Okay, now that I can agree with you dear sister. If anything I doubt the wizards will invest too much of their time with depending on lists, and instead see how others are bandwagoning with them/reacting. Lists, as statistics are too easily subject to personal whim. A wolf or a gifted could use lists as easily as their wizards to get a point across.
Meaning, we need to remember that a gifted or a wolf is given a task of any sort, though how they reach them could be a number of ways. The wizards just want to see their goals met with as little loss or consequences.

Originally Posted by Durelin

It's the phantom who's begging for attention. phantom to Evil Wizard...not much of a stretch.

I thought tp always wants attention?

I don't have much of a grounded suspicion on anyone yet, but tp's personality doesn't strike me as an immediate suspicion for EW, let alone wolf. I'd rather be more concerned if he was having mutliple personalities in his posts, or acting extremely skitterish in his reasoning.
This is from only what I know of his nature outside of WW, since I believe this is the first time I've played a game with tp in it.

((Going to be gone for another hour or so, but back in time for the deadline. Sorry for the shoddy schedule and boring posts everyone.))

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hello, my friends and relations (most of you are both, come to think of it). I'm so sorry to have deserted our afflicted village in its hour of need. I have been gathering herbs to ease the pain of my brother's death. Like to try some, anyone? No?

For a while, now, I have been standing aside, listening to what others have to say. Which has been as follows:

1. We should try and lynch wolves.

2. No, we should try and lynch the Evil Wizard.

3. No, we should try and lynch them both.

People seem much more reluctant to put forward any method of achieving any of these goals. The only suggestions I've heard have been, "Guess on basis of personality" and, "Lynch people until we find some wolves, and then we'll know who picked them". I don't find either of these plans appealing (as a healer, I shrink from unnecessary bloodshed).

As has been pointed out (much) more than once, we cannot count on spotting wolf interactions, since the wolves may not know who each other are. I don't see why this is such an issue. My training in healing touched on the unpleasant subject of lycanthropy. According to the ancient lore passed on to me from the earliest times, werewolves often don't show much in the way of pack behaviour on Day 1 anyway... but there are other ways in which they may reveal their beastly nature.

Some of them have been known to use diversionary tactics such as

1. Starting/continuing pointless debates

2. Making lots of "empty" posts full of banter or non-specific general statements that seem helpful but aren't when you look at them closely

3. Repeating what other people have said already.

The only problem is that there's been so much of that toDay, it's hard to know where to start.

Edit: X'd since Legate at #77.

This is a very suspicious first post. Nerwen takes a long time to do nothing but criticise other people's ideas and post signs indicating potential wolvish behaviour. She's also giving wolves a nice guide on how not to act. I can't see what she hopes to achieve with this, other than to look helpful and serious in the eyes of the casual reader.



Cross-posted with Nerwen and others. Nerwen finds my methods ''pointless'' and possibly distracting.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Cailín

This is a very suspicious first post. Nerwen takes a long time to do nothing but criticise other people's ideas and post signs indicating potential wolvish behaviour. She's also giving wolves a nice guide on how not to act. I can't see what she hopes to achieve with this, other than to look helpful and serious in the eyes of the casual reader.

Isn't it obvious? What I'm pointing out is that there are still ways to find wolves (or the EW) based on their playing styles rather than known personality or random voting.

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Isn't it obvious? What I'm pointing out is that there are still ways to find wolves (or the EW) based on their playing styles rather than known personality or random voting.

Known personality and playing style are intrinsically linked. We judge people's personality based on their playing style. But that is not the reason I found your post suspicious. We all know how this game is played - most of us are experienced veterans - and there is little need, in my opinion, to list common wolf-tactics.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Izzy

Some have said it, and I'll just spit it back out. Being either the EW or GW is in all likelihood going to take an amount of commitment, which would most likely not suit someone whom may have larger RL time restraints.

Ah, yes, you have pointed out the logical and natural starting point for hunting down the EW. In our search for the EW we simply can't get to everyone, so we have no choice but to rule out as best we can a portion of the village. The most obvious way to do this is to consider who would actually apply to be the EW, and your point about RL time constraints is a good one, but scary at the same time.

Suppose that one of our extremely busy members is actually not that busy and has been lying through their teeth on the admin thread this whole time. If that is the case then essentially this game is already over, because we simply will not find them out because of the fact that we have to rule someone out!

Originally Posted by Sally

Hehe, Phantom, don't you know that it is I who will be multi-scried?

Grrr... I will be quite upset if that happens!

Originally Posted by Mother

He's not the cobbler, he's a very naughty boy.

Ha ha ha!

Really, I simply can't stand this statistics business, especially on day one.

What? You don't like numbers? But numbers are my friends! Much better than people, they are- numbers don't have bad moods, won't stab you in the back, and don't make you listen to how their day was. They just sit there, waiting to be used, willing to bend to your will. Numbers are awesome!

Stop it now, or you'll go to bed without supper!

What?! Starving your own flesh and blood?

You must be a Wolf!

But seeing as I've still got to eat, I suppose I can let it slide. It might be kind of cool having a Werewolf for a mother. What do you think, Dad?

And where is my little sister!

[Cailín]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Cailin's *if I were a Wizard cause I'm not* list is...odd. It seems like the biggest waste of time yet. Even if the EW thought, as Cailin suggested, that they should pick wolves from "among our less famous, vocal and illustrous villagers"...her list really doesn't follow that, in my opinion. And that's all it is, opinion.

Of course, it's opinion. If we all pitch in with our opinions then perhaps we shall reach a consensus.

The difference between this WW game and others is that there is a substantially smaller degree of randomness here. When we talk of who would apply to be a wizard, or who a wizard would want as a wolf, or as a gifted, we are dealing with probabilities, however slight.

And on Day 1, when we have almost nothing to do but sift through roleplaying posts and criticise others for not being helpful, I believe it can be worthwhile to speculate.

[McCaber]

Well, I'm here. Lamentations about uncle Noggie and that other guy, etc. Aganzir, my love, we'll get through this just fine.

Now, to business. Right now, the phantom looks innocent to me. sally is slightly worrying, as is Cailin. I'll be back with some more solid info, but that'll have to do for now.

[Thinlómien]

There have been points against Gwathagor and I have to admit they make sense. However, Gwath has been a wolf so often of late that I would really not prefer suspecting him yet. (I know, this is rather unreasonable. And contradictory too, for - I won't start this, don't be afraid - I would indeed have picked him if I were the EW.)

Originally Posted by Legate

I don't like this that much. Not sure why, but following someone with a suspicion like that... my dear sally does not seem suspicious in any way, she is behaving like she's always, and also she simply voted and that's it. Nothing weird there.

Well, young man, they say that love makes even the wisest of us blind and my daughter is an attractive girl (of course she is: she has her mother's genes), so I won't blame you.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Well you're right there - at least that's what I did in Volo's game. But that argument doesn't quite apply to here - the wolves just can't play the way they'd like. If they don't know the EW's identity, they have to be careful not to accidentally accuse her.

Well, not exactly. I trust the wolves to trust the EW to be resourceful enough to overcome such minor things.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Can you elaborate what you mean by that?

If you take it out of the context it does seem quite silly, but I was merely continuing on the trail of thought I had started before. I simply meant that you seem so reckless that you're not concerned about flushing anyone - gifteds included - out, while normally innocent people avoid that.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Assumption: Brinn is a wolf. She doesn't know her fellows, and she's afraid she would slip it later. She says her opinion is that the wolves probably don't know one other, and therefore she knows there cannot be connections between them. Now it's clear for everyone that it's her opinion, and she won't be questioned later if she speaks like the wolves didn't know one another for sure.
And that comment looks plain fishy.
Got it?

Well, that's what I thought you meant but it makes little sense to me. Rather far-fetched, I should say. Why would anything like that occur to anyone?

I can somewhat second Rikae's submarine-suggestion. If I don't have suspicions by the time the deadline comes/ I go to sleep (whichever takes place first), I will vote a submarine. Sadly, it's a difficult job to figure who's one.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Suppose that one of our extremely busy members is actually not that busy and has been lying through their teeth on the admin thread this whole time.

It's utterly useless to speculate about that. I prefer to trust that no one lies on the admin thread. If they do and win based on that, shame on them. They cheated. Enough said.

Originally Posted by Cailín

About the phantom: he seems merely to be playing with the dynamics of this game. Because of the uncertainty whether one will wake up on the same side tomorrow as one is today, he has interpreted the role of villager as neutral rather than on the side of good. All this boy needs is a little direction.

Now that was a good analyse. Sadly, it points exactly why I have an urge to get rid of him. I distrust him, even though I'm kind of assuming he's on the same side with me. He's just plain confusing, and just see what he's trying to start now, at this phase of the Day: another would-be debate about whether the EW told the wolves one another's identities. Really makes me want to murder him.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Looking at Mac's list, it seems to me that he is quietly suspicious of everyone who wanted to look for the wolves first; "Only a little like" (Lhuna), "Not very much like" (me, Cailin), "No like" (Roa), "Really not sure" (Brinn).

I was starting to say that that's not really suspicious as people tend to suspect people who disagree with them, but then I remembered that Mac didn't clearly disagree with those people. Very interesting. But anyhow, I doubt Mac-wolf would do something that transparent...


edit: xed with #138 and everything after it...

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Aganzir, I love you! If I wasn't taken already, I'd be in line with your suitors. That's what I've been thinking all along. Thank you for putting it into clearer words.

I am flattered. Anyway, glad to be of some help.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Well, that's what I thought you meant but it makes little sense to me. Rather far-fetched, I should say. Why would anything like that occur to anyone?

I don't know. Maybe because it looks like that.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

And am I right in thinking that the only ones left to post are Di and Nilp?

Yes.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Does everyone understand that point and agree with it?

Makes sense to me.

Originally Posted by Volo

At points I'm not sure whether she's joking or not, and that I regard dangerous, because she can always decide later which way she meant it. Ok - maybe I'm only complaining that she's joking at all as I'm refering to her suspicions in #68.

If you can't figure out whether I'm serious or not, I'm most likely joking.

edit: xed with Greenie and Volo

[Aganzir]

A thing I was to say already in my last post but forgot.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Sadly, it points exactly why I have an urge to get rid of him. I distrust him, even though I'm kind of assuming he's on the same side with me.

I feel uneasy how Lommy keeps using the term "same side". She did it also earlier, in #90

Originally Posted by Lommy

But if we better wolf candidates, I'm all for keeping her as she's quite sharp and can benefit us as much as her own team.

Makes me wonder whether Lommy is a wolf trying to find her pack the EW didn't reveal her.

And if there was a list of non-wolves and my name was on it, it would explain her attacks against me. I wouldn't put it past her to try to find her fellows like that.

edit: xed since m'dear McC

[Isabellkya]

I thought Deadline was at 11pm GMT.. which is roughly 6 minutes from now. Or is toDay 25 hours long? Or am I failing at timezone conversion?



X'd with phantom and Volo.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

I thought Deadline was at 11pm GMT.. which is roughly 6 minutes from now. Or is toDay 25 hours long? Or am I failing at timezone conversion?

11 pm gmt which is 12 pm gst. Still an hour to go.

edit: xed with Cailín