Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Nogrod]

I got with Fëa and Nerwen to the end of the Day3 but it's getting too late for me to continue as I'd wish to say a few words about what I found before going to sleep.


Fëa:

D1
Banter, having fun, Day1 is useless, flirting with the dark side like:

“And will therefore vote before work tomorrow afternoon, based entirely on whim (or possibly dice rolling) unless somebody besides me says "I'm a wolf."”

Or:

“And really, Boro, do you think I'm going to admit I'm a wolf this early in the game, even if I am one?”

She plays a kind of a meta-game placing herself above the actual game all the time, which is something that is easy to hold constantly and not blood your hands in anywhere… Other than that she basically only takes contact with Boro (she answers a few questions or comments some points in passing but other than that, no) and speaks of out-of-the-game issues.

Finally votes for Boro for:

“Because I have enough faith in his ability to figure out why, and because there's always a really great chance that I'm right”

Hangs around after her vote given one hour before the DL (gives the correct time for the DL about an half an hour before it) but does not contribute anything else.

D2
Opens the Day with a red alert post:

So I get out of classes yesterday, and I'm thinking "Wow, I love art history! I'm barely aware I'm even taking it." And I'm thinking "Wow, I love aesthetics. It's so funny, having class with smart alecky boys." And I'm reading the thread and I'm eating lunch and I'm thinking "Wait, who has the most votes? What's happening?" And I take a slightly closer look and think "Why did they kill Cap? ZOMG he's a wolf?"

So now I'm thinking I need to reread the thread and figure out how people saw his behavior and was like "Wolf" when I really hadn't thought twice about him.

Is annoyed by Shasta asking her a question. Calls him a wolf.

Wavers between Shasta and Boro after a rant on apologies, votes Boro;

“(who could have seen that coming?)”

D3
Continues the meta-game talking only general principles. Though says:

“Shasta and Boro, congrats for passing my unofficial test for the day. Tomorrow, who knows. Today, you're off my hitlist.

I could see a Mithwolf in this game...”

Votes Mith an hour before the DL in a hurry with "sorry darling I love you but…" Says this of others:

“Temporarily considered a negligible threat: Nilp, Nogrod, Mac, Shasta

Worrisome: Rikae, Nerwen, Boro, Mith, Lal

I'm barely aware they're playing: Sally, McCaber, Izzy, Fea “

Makes her interesting post #367

“I miss the phantom right now. He'd get a kick out of what I'm about to do. I wonder if anyone else will understand...

Here are my rules:

1) For the love of all things holy, will the real seer PLEASE not refute me?

2) Don't listen to a word I say.

Here's my action:

Village, I am the seer.”

-------

Nerwen:

D1
#43 Very much a wolf’s first post. All those suspected were / are innocents (including one cobbler) and all was done in character style.

Never appears back again on Day1 but had an baby possum inside her house brought by her cat or something…

D2
Quotes people on Shasta. The result:

“As others have said, Sally is a little odd... she's one of the first to raise suspicion of CaptainofDespair, but then plays it down the tighter the noose gets around his neck. However, it's not as if there was a particularly good case against him.”

Also questions Boro’s credentials there. Concentrates on Lal and insists that if there were a WoW on Day1 it would have been McCaber or Mith, questions Boro’s theory about Brinnwolf looking at Kath as a seer.

Thinks that Gwath looks “disingenuous” but me and Mith look even worse for our suspicions on him. Questions Lal a bit more.

Clearly is around at the last hour but only corrects Nilp’s quote twenty minutes before the DL + votes Boro “running out of time”.

D3
Defends her vote on Boro after Boro asked about it with a clip of her own post. Wants to hear from Gwath voters – me, Mith, Nilp & Mac in a questioning post. Lightly remembers old games. Questions others for an opinion on Lal, says Mac is too good to be true and the seer should check him. Points out to Boro’s consistency in voting Lal…

Says she could have voted for the “de facto cobbler” Lal but decides to go for Boro twenty minutes before DL. Notifies Fëa’s reveal two times but has nothing to say to it. Says Nilp would be a cobbler candidate #4 in the end

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Other than that she basically only takes contact with Boro

If I try to pay attention to too many people or things at once, I get really distracted and confused. I'm the poster child for misdiagnosed ADD. I therefore concentrate on and obsess over one person at a time until I'm satisfied. In this case, I latched onto Boro in an unhealthy manner, and can't multitask properly because I'm still too fixated. Like the way that Bella and Edward are obsessed with each other. I can't even help it.

Anyway...

[Nogrod]

I'm continuing to be very uneasy with Nerwen.

The D1 post is just too nicely throwing the non-wolves into the fray.

If she's a wolf the starter of Day2 is a classic: “As others have said, Sally is a little odd... she's one of the first to raise suspicion of CaptainofDespair, but then plays it down the tighter the noose gets around his neck. However, it's not as if there was a particularly good case against him.”

Makes some wolvish moves, like saying Gwath (ordo) is suspicious but even more so are myself (ordo) and Mith (I'd presume ordo), has only a few people actually suspected - as not to gain too much retaliatory votes, hangs around the deadline (as she corrects a quote an half an hour earlier) but votes at the last minute - without contributing anything to the discussion within the last hour. A satisfied wolf that is only observing the death of an ordo?

Looks even more suspicious on Day3. Quick to defend her vote on Boro, tries to move the attention to Gwath-voters (two known innocents and two probable ones).

Bringing Fëa's "revealment" up twice with "what????!!!!" looks a bit sinister as well. Like a frustrated wolf looking at her mate go and trying to get attention to that one without committing herself too much into defending her mate? If I were a wolf there I would have loved to bring about a last minute wagon on Fëa but one shouldn't be too open with it so as a wise player Nerwen didn't press it too far? Was probably already thinking Lal was the cobbler and tried to eat and save the cake (the best wolf-tactics so far ) by suspecting her of cobblery but still voting Boro - which was a bad idea were she an ordo or a wolf as that was a complete throw-away even if she tried lightly to change the agenda later on.

An innocent would mind one's votes a bit more...


Fëa is an enigma. Some things scream a wolf, some others make me think of her an ordo just toying with the game as she has no role and thence is not too enthusiastic about it.


Right now I'd say Nerwen is the last wolf but I'm wishing to hear other points on it - especially those of Nerwen herself.

EDIT: X'd with Fëa... hmmm...?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm continuing to be very uneasy with Nerwen.

Nogrod, I find your lack of faith disturbing....

Answering your case:

I qualified my points about Sally because– well, it was true that there hadn't been a real case against CoD.

And Fea– yes, I expressed bewilderment at the way she was acting. Is that strange?

As for the voting–

I have been extremely busy around the deadline the last few Days and haven't been able to participate as much as I'd like.

My "throwaway" vote on Day 2 was because I was in such a hurry– plus I crossed with others.

People keep calling my Day 3 vote a throwaway, but I'm not sure why. It wasn't. Other people had yet to vote, and Mac was talking about lynching Boro too. I thought at that stage that Lal was more likely cobbler than wolf, Boro more likely wolf than cobbler. Therefore I voted him. The next day the situation was reversed, so I voted Lal.

Finally, as for these 20-20 hindsight points you make about me having suspected innocents... um... so have you, Nogrod– just ask Gwa– oh, wait, he's dead.

I'm serious... you now have the luxury of being a known innocent, but imagine how some of your moves this game would look if you weren't. I mean, why do you think Nilp dreamed you?

EDIT: fixed bolding.

[Boromir88]

I'm serious... you now have the luxury of being a known innocent, but imagine how some of your moves this game would look if you weren't. I mean, why do you think Nilp dreamed you?~Nerwen

That is exactly my point. Being "wrong" doesn't automatically make one a wolf, it can actually make one look innocent. Mac's been right about two wolves, but he's also been wrong on several people, and his reactions today (as well as yesterday) make him look even more innocent:

I look at it and I see a clear record. As long as I see better options, I think it's madness to go for somebody with a clear record!

Don't take this as an attempt to butter up, but I have absolutely no reasons to vote for Nogrod, Shasta, Mac, Mith, or Fea today. That leaves Izzy, Nerwen, and McCaber.

Now, being wrong alone doesn't make one necessarily a wolf, but the placement of your vote and who you attempt to save (if you were trying to save anyone at all) very well could. You do bring up a good point, and that is cross-posting, I think if you (Mac and Nogrod) are going to argue the placement of Nerwen's vote is suspicious, we have to take any sort of cross-voting into account. Which, I will go back and take a look at now.

[Nerwen]

By the way, Nogrod—

Um... you do realize there's only one wolf now, don't you? You've already been corrected by Mac once, yet you still reason:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Bringing Fëa's "revealment" up twice with "what????!!!!" looks a bit sinister as well. Like a frustrated wolf looking at her mate go and trying to get attention to that one without committing herself too much into defending her mate?

What's the matter with you?

[Boromir88]

Nerwen, no Day 1 vote, and said why. No reason to not believe it, something came up, doesn't make her look like a wolf, nor like an innocent.

Day 2:

Looking at who Nerwen said she cross-posted with, she cross-voted with Brinn's (voted for sally) and Mac's (voted for Gwath). When Nerwen cast her vote the situation was:

Nogrod - 3
Gwath - 2
McCaber - 2
Sally - 1
Boro - 1

Brinn gives sally a 2nd vote, Mac ties it up between Nogrod and Gwath, and Nerwen gives me a 2nd vote...all right at the end. (Nogrod saves himself, but I don't know if he crossed with anyone or not, that doesn't matter).

I disagree with Mac that Nerwen's day 2 vote looks suspicious. Nerwen looks like she got stuck in the situation that I was in at the end of Day 1. Nerwen admits it was a throw away, because the situation was coming down between Gwath and Nogrod, it would then appear Nerwen was trying to pass the responsibility to somebody else. But, previously (in post 238) she just says she doesn't know what to think. She didn't like Gwath's response to Rikae, but didn't like Mith and Nogrod's jump on Gwath. She also marks she doesn't like the way I went after Lalwende after she had been testing Lal and concluded Lal was not a wolf.

The way Nerwen goes after the "bandwagoners" who are quick to follow someone else is consistent.

Day 3:

When Nerwen votes for me, she crosses with McCaber's vote for sally, and Mith's vote for Lal.

So the situation was...

Nogrod - 2
Mith - 2
sally - 1
Lal - 1

Nerwen adds me to the list, while sally and Lal both receive their 2nd votes. I'm not quite sure what to make of this. Sally was a wolf, and if Nerwen's a wolf, why would she spread the vote more? Why wouldn't she try to create some distance for sally? I mean she did have Lal (the believed cobbler) to sacrifice if needed, to try and create a diversion/get sally out of focus. Spreading the vote in that situation doesn't make sense for a wolf.

Also, sally's response to Nerwen's vote:

Again. Confused. Adding another candidate this close to deadline never makes me happy. (Unless he DOES have a previous vote and I missed it, in which case mildly disregard this comment)

Now, would wolf sally point this out to a wolf-Nerwen. Possibly, she did react to CoD's Day 1 vote, but then she went on to defend him. Plus, her reaction to CoD, looked like an over-reaction (looked fake), I wouldn't call this an over-reaction. Still the question is, because I don't know, would sally point that out if Nerwen was a wolf too?

Day 4:

Doesn't cross-vote with anyone, votes for Lal, tying her up with me.
The question I have for you Nerwen, is I see you mention that if Nogrod was right, than I at most am the cobbler, where Lal could be a wolf. Now that does lie consistent with your approach in this village, wanting to vote for a wolf first, rather than shoot for the cobbler. But how did you decide that Lal could be a wolf, when the days before you said you reached the conclusion she wasn't furry?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The question I have for you Nerwen, is I see you mention that if Nogrod was right, than I at most am the cobbler, where Lal could be a wolf. Now that does lie consistent with your approach in this village, wanting to vote for a wolf first, rather than shoot for the cobbler. But how did you decide that Lal could be a wolf, when the days before you said you reached the conclusion she wasn't furry?

That was an early conclusion, which I'd revised by the time I voted her. At first I suspected her, but her replies to my questions made me believe her just a very confused ordo. However, as the game continued, it became increasingly clear that she was evil. I thought she was most likely the cobbler, but I couldn't logically rule out her being a wolf... whereas it seemed Sally's vote probably cleared you (the other possibility was voting Fea, but I hadn't had time to take a good look at her).

[Boromir88]

So what you have to decide is being right enough evidence to kill me.

I think not.~McCaber

It's not just the 3 votes buddy, it's that almost statement you made (prior to me bringing this up) was right - about Gwath, and about Nogrod, and did say you thought I was innocent until yesterday. Now, you did say on Day 1 that Brinn seemed off, and there was a period you were unsure about me, but that's it.

Yes folks, I was very right the first 3 Days. I was trying to be right to try to be killed by the wolfpack instead of the Seer.

With that impressive voting record why was it that Brinn and Rikae were killed. Kath was killed because she simply left no trail to follow. But, Brinn and Rikae were more active members, who did leave a trail (and both incriminated sally), thus their deaths can only mean the wolves thought they were getting the seer.

The fact that Brinn gets killed after voting for sally. Rikae gets killed after voting for sally, and sally is found to be a wolf, can't be coincidence. Rikae's list of "creepies" after excluding herself (innocent), Nogrod (innocent), sally (wolf), were Izzy and you, McCaber. The question is which one of you fear you'd be a seer dream next?

See, and that's still not the whole argument. Your votes, while they be for wolves (the first 3 days) are safe.

Day 1, you're the first vote for CoD, and you vote before any of the real suspicion grows against him. There was no reason to believe CoD was going to be lynched until the very last minutes. Exactly as Nerwen said, it's a safe place for a wolf-on-wolf vote. You obviously wouldn't be expecting CoD a bandwagon lynching against a wolf on Day 1, and if/when CoD is proven to be a wolf, you can go back to that Day 1 vote.

Your Day 2 vote is also safe. While you did consistently go after sally that day, it was another safe vote to make for a wolf. Gwath and Nogrod were the focus, very fewb people were talking about sally. I brought up at the beginning her strange reaction to CoD, Rikae said she thought the exact opposite and that was pretty much it about sally for the rest of the day. Nerwen, Lal, and myself got into it a little bit, Mac's taken up Fea's desire to lynch me, but he's less trigger happy. The focus was off sally, another safe vote, and as far as Day 2 goes a way to stay out of the action (between Gwath/Nogrod and Nerwen/Lal/Mac/me). The other person who did bring up more suspicion against sally, ended up dead during the night.

Day 3, this I admit is a little less safe, and you did continue to pursue sally. But again a safe, early vote for sally. Even though you put her into the lead (2nd vote for sally). There still a lot of people left to vote, anything could happen, and with all the attention Lal and I had been attracting for 2 days, it was another good place for a wolf-on-wolf vote. If sally doesn't end up getting lynched great, if she does you look extremely innocent.

The fact that you continued to pursue sally, may have very well convinced me that you are indeed innocent if not for the fact that your first post the next day you state:

So are we finally clear that Mac and Iare innocent? Good.

Now that we're all on the same page,

You're quick to want to put to rest any possibility that you (or Mac) are wolves, because of your voting record. That assumption automatically rings alarms, because you're not proven innocent until the seer says you're proven innocent. Yet, you want to quickly put the discussion to rest. And you set your sights on the 5 unknown, suspicious people, directing everyone's attention to them. Marking that we should be able to kill/exonerate them without much more difficulty.

Now to answer Nogrod's question, that would the wolf team leave wolf McCaber in this situation. Where obviously the last wolf has exteme odds to overcome. I don't know that. But I do know 2 wolves have been lynched in the first 2-days before, and a lone wolf has survived to the end. I do know that McCaber would not have likely been a seer dream, especially with his early impressive voting record. I do know thus that with McCaber's voting record people could easily feel safe about him, and thus he could go slip into the background. I do know that we could have gone several days lynching the assumed 5 "unknowns" (when really Mac and McCaber are both unknown too), and then we might start seeing our big advantage disappear.

I do know we can't take an innocent for granted, we can't just lynch someone on the grounds of "wanting to know for sure," if Fea would get her way I'd have an early exit every time. No matter the advantage, each and every day we have to go into it trying to nab a wolf.

We have a good group of known innocent right now, and with the ranger still we may keep this group for a few days yet. I'm willing to bet the farm on this one. I ask you continue to trust me. If it turns out I'm wrong about McCaber, I'll let you decide what to do with me, if that means lynching me, so be it, than Fea will get her wish.

[McCaber]

And I'd be willing to bet that Boro is completely and utterly wrong. Remember the last time two people went head to head in this game? Both were innocents harping on phrases that could be taken badly. I'm sure that if I really wanted to I could put together a convincing argument that Boro is indeed a wolf and should be killed. But I won't, because I think he's innocent. (Should I apologize yet one more time for calling him a cobbler? I was enjoying my freedom to not be a sacrifice to the wolves to keep the seer alive. Yes, that was my main motivation besides killing sally.) Instead, I'll keep defending myself and looking for wolves among the others. I can agree that it would be a horribly cunning strategy for one wolf to completely betray the last wolf, but that's not how I play. I prefer to keep as many people on my team alive as possible. Which is probably why I'm not scanning Boro's posts for wolvery as much as some of my other suspects.

And I would not view my Day 2&3 votes as safe and early. They both came about half an hour before DL, and I tried to start bandwaggons against she who I knew was a wolf.