Tol-in-Gaurhoth L: Battle of the Fandoms

[Boromir88]

Nerwen, no Day 1 vote, and said why. No reason to not believe it, something came up, doesn't make her look like a wolf, nor like an innocent.

Day 2:

Looking at who Nerwen said she cross-posted with, she cross-voted with Brinn's (voted for sally) and Mac's (voted for Gwath). When Nerwen cast her vote the situation was:

Nogrod - 3
Gwath - 2
McCaber - 2
Sally - 1
Boro - 1

Brinn gives sally a 2nd vote, Mac ties it up between Nogrod and Gwath, and Nerwen gives me a 2nd vote...all right at the end. (Nogrod saves himself, but I don't know if he crossed with anyone or not, that doesn't matter).

I disagree with Mac that Nerwen's day 2 vote looks suspicious. Nerwen looks like she got stuck in the situation that I was in at the end of Day 1. Nerwen admits it was a throw away, because the situation was coming down between Gwath and Nogrod, it would then appear Nerwen was trying to pass the responsibility to somebody else. But, previously (in post 238) she just says she doesn't know what to think. She didn't like Gwath's response to Rikae, but didn't like Mith and Nogrod's jump on Gwath. She also marks she doesn't like the way I went after Lalwende after she had been testing Lal and concluded Lal was not a wolf.

The way Nerwen goes after the "bandwagoners" who are quick to follow someone else is consistent.

Day 3:

When Nerwen votes for me, she crosses with McCaber's vote for sally, and Mith's vote for Lal.

So the situation was...

Nogrod - 2
Mith - 2
sally - 1
Lal - 1

Nerwen adds me to the list, while sally and Lal both receive their 2nd votes. I'm not quite sure what to make of this. Sally was a wolf, and if Nerwen's a wolf, why would she spread the vote more? Why wouldn't she try to create some distance for sally? I mean she did have Lal (the believed cobbler) to sacrifice if needed, to try and create a diversion/get sally out of focus. Spreading the vote in that situation doesn't make sense for a wolf.

Also, sally's response to Nerwen's vote:

Again. Confused. Adding another candidate this close to deadline never makes me happy. (Unless he DOES have a previous vote and I missed it, in which case mildly disregard this comment)

Now, would wolf sally point this out to a wolf-Nerwen. Possibly, she did react to CoD's Day 1 vote, but then she went on to defend him. Plus, her reaction to CoD, looked like an over-reaction (looked fake), I wouldn't call this an over-reaction. Still the question is, because I don't know, would sally point that out if Nerwen was a wolf too?

Day 4:

Doesn't cross-vote with anyone, votes for Lal, tying her up with me.
The question I have for you Nerwen, is I see you mention that if Nogrod was right, than I at most am the cobbler, where Lal could be a wolf. Now that does lie consistent with your approach in this village, wanting to vote for a wolf first, rather than shoot for the cobbler. But how did you decide that Lal could be a wolf, when the days before you said you reached the conclusion she wasn't furry?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The question I have for you Nerwen, is I see you mention that if Nogrod was right, than I at most am the cobbler, where Lal could be a wolf. Now that does lie consistent with your approach in this village, wanting to vote for a wolf first, rather than shoot for the cobbler. But how did you decide that Lal could be a wolf, when the days before you said you reached the conclusion she wasn't furry?

That was an early conclusion, which I'd revised by the time I voted her. At first I suspected her, but her replies to my questions made me believe her just a very confused ordo. However, as the game continued, it became increasingly clear that she was evil. I thought she was most likely the cobbler, but I couldn't logically rule out her being a wolf... whereas it seemed Sally's vote probably cleared you (the other possibility was voting Fea, but I hadn't had time to take a good look at her).

[Boromir88]

So what you have to decide is being right enough evidence to kill me.

I think not.~McCaber

It's not just the 3 votes buddy, it's that almost statement you made (prior to me bringing this up) was right - about Gwath, and about Nogrod, and did say you thought I was innocent until yesterday. Now, you did say on Day 1 that Brinn seemed off, and there was a period you were unsure about me, but that's it.

Yes folks, I was very right the first 3 Days. I was trying to be right to try to be killed by the wolfpack instead of the Seer.

With that impressive voting record why was it that Brinn and Rikae were killed. Kath was killed because she simply left no trail to follow. But, Brinn and Rikae were more active members, who did leave a trail (and both incriminated sally), thus their deaths can only mean the wolves thought they were getting the seer.

The fact that Brinn gets killed after voting for sally. Rikae gets killed after voting for sally, and sally is found to be a wolf, can't be coincidence. Rikae's list of "creepies" after excluding herself (innocent), Nogrod (innocent), sally (wolf), were Izzy and you, McCaber. The question is which one of you fear you'd be a seer dream next?

See, and that's still not the whole argument. Your votes, while they be for wolves (the first 3 days) are safe.

Day 1, you're the first vote for CoD, and you vote before any of the real suspicion grows against him. There was no reason to believe CoD was going to be lynched until the very last minutes. Exactly as Nerwen said, it's a safe place for a wolf-on-wolf vote. You obviously wouldn't be expecting CoD a bandwagon lynching against a wolf on Day 1, and if/when CoD is proven to be a wolf, you can go back to that Day 1 vote.

Your Day 2 vote is also safe. While you did consistently go after sally that day, it was another safe vote to make for a wolf. Gwath and Nogrod were the focus, very fewb people were talking about sally. I brought up at the beginning her strange reaction to CoD, Rikae said she thought the exact opposite and that was pretty much it about sally for the rest of the day. Nerwen, Lal, and myself got into it a little bit, Mac's taken up Fea's desire to lynch me, but he's less trigger happy. The focus was off sally, another safe vote, and as far as Day 2 goes a way to stay out of the action (between Gwath/Nogrod and Nerwen/Lal/Mac/me). The other person who did bring up more suspicion against sally, ended up dead during the night.

Day 3, this I admit is a little less safe, and you did continue to pursue sally. But again a safe, early vote for sally. Even though you put her into the lead (2nd vote for sally). There still a lot of people left to vote, anything could happen, and with all the attention Lal and I had been attracting for 2 days, it was another good place for a wolf-on-wolf vote. If sally doesn't end up getting lynched great, if she does you look extremely innocent.

The fact that you continued to pursue sally, may have very well convinced me that you are indeed innocent if not for the fact that your first post the next day you state:

So are we finally clear that Mac and Iare innocent? Good.

Now that we're all on the same page,

You're quick to want to put to rest any possibility that you (or Mac) are wolves, because of your voting record. That assumption automatically rings alarms, because you're not proven innocent until the seer says you're proven innocent. Yet, you want to quickly put the discussion to rest. And you set your sights on the 5 unknown, suspicious people, directing everyone's attention to them. Marking that we should be able to kill/exonerate them without much more difficulty.

Now to answer Nogrod's question, that would the wolf team leave wolf McCaber in this situation. Where obviously the last wolf has exteme odds to overcome. I don't know that. But I do know 2 wolves have been lynched in the first 2-days before, and a lone wolf has survived to the end. I do know that McCaber would not have likely been a seer dream, especially with his early impressive voting record. I do know thus that with McCaber's voting record people could easily feel safe about him, and thus he could go slip into the background. I do know that we could have gone several days lynching the assumed 5 "unknowns" (when really Mac and McCaber are both unknown too), and then we might start seeing our big advantage disappear.

I do know we can't take an innocent for granted, we can't just lynch someone on the grounds of "wanting to know for sure," if Fea would get her way I'd have an early exit every time. No matter the advantage, each and every day we have to go into it trying to nab a wolf.

We have a good group of known innocent right now, and with the ranger still we may keep this group for a few days yet. I'm willing to bet the farm on this one. I ask you continue to trust me. If it turns out I'm wrong about McCaber, I'll let you decide what to do with me, if that means lynching me, so be it, than Fea will get her wish.

[McCaber]

And I'd be willing to bet that Boro is completely and utterly wrong. Remember the last time two people went head to head in this game? Both were innocents harping on phrases that could be taken badly. I'm sure that if I really wanted to I could put together a convincing argument that Boro is indeed a wolf and should be killed. But I won't, because I think he's innocent. (Should I apologize yet one more time for calling him a cobbler? I was enjoying my freedom to not be a sacrifice to the wolves to keep the seer alive. Yes, that was my main motivation besides killing sally.) Instead, I'll keep defending myself and looking for wolves among the others. I can agree that it would be a horribly cunning strategy for one wolf to completely betray the last wolf, but that's not how I play. I prefer to keep as many people on my team alive as possible. Which is probably why I'm not scanning Boro's posts for wolvery as much as some of my other suspects.

And I would not view my Day 2&3 votes as safe and early. They both came about half an hour before DL, and I tried to start bandwaggons against she who I knew was a wolf.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Boro

Mac's been right about two wolves, but he's also been wrong on several people, and his reactions today (as well as yesterday) make him look even more innocent:

I'm soo going to bite the dust once Nogrod and Shasta are killed.

Originally Posted by McCaber

I was trying to be right to try to be killed by the wolfpack instead of the Seer.

Huh? Well, apart from the remaining wolf, I'm sure everybody here is trying to be right all the time - not because of any wolf/seer/thing, but simply because being right facilitates winning the game quite significantly. It's not the trying to be right, but the being right that most people consider to be the challenging part.


Out of all wolf-lynchers, I think Izzy looks most suspicious, and since she seems to be a little overlooked today, I'll have a closer look at her next.

[Nogrod]

Oops!

Originally Posted by McCaber

And I would not view my Day 2&3 votes as safe and early. They both came about half an hour before DL, and I tried to start bandwaggons against she who I knew was a wolf.

Originally Posted by Boro

And Mac would say my evidence is weak. Granted that's not the entire schibang against Nerwen (I wouldn't even call it the potatoes), but it looks that's a bit of a stretch.

I don't think I have any evidence as such as evidence is a rare treat in a WW-game. But I'd say the cumulative effect of small things that could be seen as pointing at the same direction does make me actually suspect Nerwen.

Talking about streching, I must agree with Nerwen that McCaber hasn't been quite caught yet - even if I agree he looks suspicious as well and his posting toDay hasn't helped his position in my eyes.

Originally Posted by Boro over voting on Day3

When Nerwen votes for me, she crosses with McCaber's vote for sally, and Mith's vote for Lal.

So the situation was...

Nogrod - 2
Mith - 2
sally - 1
Lal - 1

Nerwen adds me to the list, while sally and Lal both receive their 2nd votes. I'm not quite sure what to make of this. Sally was a wolf, and if Nerwen's a wolf, why would she spread the vote more? Why wouldn't she try to create some distance for sally? I mean she did have Lal (the believed cobbler) to sacrifice if needed, to try and create a diversion/get sally out of focus. Spreading the vote in that situation doesn't make sense for a wolf.

This situation I think is worth a second (and a third, and fourth...) look even if we couldn't get anything conclusive - either way - out of it.

Nerwen had somewhat openly suspected Lalwendë of cobblery but said she wished to go for a wolf rather than cobbler. I can see the point behind that - but also a wolf (if she thought Lal was indeed the cobbler which wouldn't be too far-fetched) would have loved to let the cobbler live.

Why then not vote for me or Mith to save Sally? She had made a few ligt suspicions on us both the earlier Day because of us suspecting Gwath for reasons she didn't think were good - or Mith being a possible WoW -voter.

Now one thing comes to mind - if she is a wolf that is - as the main reason for Sally to get into the mess she was in in the first place was her "saving vote" for CoD on Day1. Now Nerwen would surely like to avoid that kind of attention and not the least if she were going to be the last wolf standing, and voting for me or Mith might have raised some eyebrows if and when Sally got lynched one Day and were revealed the wolf she was.

In that case voting Boro was a safe bet for her - looks consistent and not like saving Sally.

I have in mind an innocent Nerwen scenario as well but I think she should produce it herself...

Interstingly Nerwen has basically nothing to say of Sally even if she was on everyone's mouth and ascted pretty suspicipusly indeed. Only on Day2 she notifies her strange manouvres with CoD but even that post ends up in a way whitewashing Sally. After that there is no mention of Sally in her posts (at least I didn't find one).


*Confused*

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I have in mind an innocent Nerwen scenario as well but I think she should produce it herself...

Nogrod, I have already answered all the points you made in your last post.

And once again, I did not "whitewash" Sally. I mentioned her behaviour as suspicious, but also thought it fair to include the extenuating circumstances.

Rikae– known innocent– had exactly the same qualms. Here she is at #158:

Well, Sally's doubts, to me, look just like what I would have been thinking, had I been around at the time - the truth is, there really wasn't a whole lot of solid reasoning behind the lynching, wolf or no wolf - it looked just like the typical "lynch the oddball on day 1" fiasco.

I did not vote Boro to save Sally. I voted him because I thought him suspicious. Really. It's as simple as that.

If I've seemed rather detached from the game, it's because I've had a huge amount of work on this week– I wouldn't have joined in if I'd realized how much.

Now, sure, by taking things I've said out of context, you can make a lovely case against me. It happens to be wrong. Get over it, please.

[Mithalwen]

I am here and also befuddled. I am going to try and read through and see which combo looks most probable. Laters.

[Isabellkya]

Ugh.
So hard to scroll through the pages.

Mith 399 onwards..

More banter and ic moments.

#441
She says that Nerwen, Ixxy, and Shasta are creeping her out. Nerwen the most. Lal is the best Cobbler bet, but doesn't understand Fea.

#495
Lal is the most Cobblerish, hard to think anyone else is.
Boro and Fea could be bored, and amusing themselves.

#506
Nerwen - Creepiest
Feanor of the Peredhil - Tweedledum
Boromir88 - Tweedledee
]Nilpaurion Felagund - Seer soi-disant. No reason to doubt.
Nogrod - Seer named ordo
McCaber - Creepy but ...
Shastanis Althreduin - Seer named Ordo
Mithalwen - Self named Ordo
Isabellkya - can't writer her off quite despite that vote.
Lalwendë - Cobbler - de facto or actual
Macalaure - Perhaps ought to check my assumption of innocence to prevent self looking silly.....

#518
Votes McCaber; saying "Only of my creepies likely to go and prefer to get a woluf than cobbler if possible."


Which I find odd. Unless I am mistaken, Boro had been the only other person in the realm of voting for Caber. Where as, I believe there were more possible Nerwen voters.

#528
"I have to go but will be back earlier tomorrow but I voted Mc Caber because he was the only of my main WOLF suspects who I stood a chance of being lynched. I was certain that Lal was teh cobbler and prepared to ignore her."


In one of your posts #443; you say I was swift on Day two to "point out" that I'd voted for CoD. Yet here you are in #528, three posts after Durelin's; explaining why you voted for Caber. You'd already done so when you made the vote. So why again? If I was swift, then you were... break neck speed?
I find it a bit fishy that you went for Caber instead of Nerwen, even though she was a higher suspect to you.


Fea
Day one is a lot of banter and IC posts..
Watching Boro very closely.

#871, you vote Boro, then say he can figure it out, and that there is a great chance you are right.

- You are right that he is a wolf, or you are right he will figure it out?


Day two
More banter.
Calls Shasta a wolf, because of apology towards Boro, and response.
Tied between Boro and Shasta.
Votes Boro.

Day three
Could see a Mithwolf.
negligible threat: Nilp, Nog, Mac, Shasta
Worrisome: Rikae, Nerwen, Boro, Mith, Lal
Barely know is playing:Sally, Caber, Izzy, Fea
Votes Mith.

Day four
Asks Boro if he wants her to vote for Lal.
Desperately wants to know Boro's role.

Day five
Doesn't understand Ranger not protecting Nilp.
Obsessed with Boro
Thought Nilp was stock piling innocents, rather than hunting wolves.

I definitely agree that your obsession with Boro in this game is unhealthy, and not really helping anyone.


I'm torn between Mith and Fea.
But something tells me from what I've re-read/skimmed of Nerwen
My vote might go there.



X'ed since mith's 569

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, sure, by taking things I've said out of context, you can make a lovely case against me. It happens to be wrong. Get over it, please.

I'd love to be able to do that as I really think you would be a great ally in this game were you an innocent. If the ranger had saved Nilp we might know it now and wouldn't waste our time on this (are you an innocent) or had won already (are you a wolf).

But then again, do you have any other ideas? Who's the wolf if you're not? That would help us indeed... and are you innocent I'd figure you would try to help in the search.

Well, the same goes to McCaber as well. I haven't seen too many openings from him either this Day.

I understand - and have experience of it for a bit too many times - that when one is innocent and generally suspected (or strongly by a few) one would like to just counter-argue the points raised and try to survive (getting lynched is an inncoent lynch and you know it yourself)... but wouldn't it be better to also try and help? At least I get the urge of trying to turn every stone in the end if I see I'm going to the gallows as an innocent to make my last contribution. A wolf wouldn't care too much about that - unless s/he thought by that effort to avoid the lynch.

Why did I say that? It's too late to set any traps tp/Eomer -way so I'd just wish to see your contributions to who do you two think is the last wolf and why.


At the moment I feel I'm going to vote either McCaber or Nerwen, depending on a host of possibilities yet to be seen during the last hour. If there is a breakthrough in any other direction I'm most willing to change my mind though.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'd love to be able to do that as I really think you would be a great ally in this game were you an innocent. If the ranger had saved Nilp we might know it now and wouldn't waste our time on this (are you an innocent) or had won already (are you a wolf).

But then again, do you have any other ideas? Who's the wolf if you're not? That would help us indeed... and are you innocent I'd figure you would try to help in the search.

I know, but I'm working right now on an animation that's due tomorrow. I told you, I wouldn't have taken on this game if I'd realized I'd have so much work on.

I promise I'll be more helpful toMorrow.

Currently I don't have much of a clue... The person I'm thinking of voting is Fea, on account of her general weirdness, including the recent rambling about Seer strategy, which looks rather like a deliberate attempt to waste time... but I don't have time to make a case against her.

EDIT: X'd with Fea, Boro and Nogrod.