Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Boromir88]

Random Thought 1.1

I don't think the wolves would seek to guard themselves. Why would vote to guard their fellows. Why would they seek to remove one of their own from the night time discussions? Wouldn't they desire to have full input from their fellows.

We know they found the way to beat the guard votes, but I can't see wolves seeking to NG one of their own, unless if there was no choice and it was a throw away to mislead us...But because of Inzil's guard votes, I'm inclined to think Pitch is innocent, and Nogrod probably too, but there is more doubt since that bandwagon made it pretty clear Nogrod would be protected.

Still it wouldn't make sense for wolves to want to NG eachother, especially a Nogwolf, he would not want to be silenced during the night.

One little thing about Shasta that bothers me and I didn't get a chance to bring up, when he said this towards Legate.

1. You say "us innocents", which is generally a baddie tell, ~Post 249

I don't like those types of suspicions, because it relies on certain words people use, and we all have common words or phrases we recycle. Just because we say I'd like to "see" more from this person or "watch" them doesn't mean we are saying "Hi. Im the seer!" Legate's usage of "us innocents" or identifying with the innocents shouldn't point to any one's wolvery or not, it's a very common thing to say in this game.

Ok, I didn't believe Legate, because I didn't find it conceivable that the wolves would not take advantage of their 2-kills...obviously I was wrong (and so did everyone else who decided to vote Legate)...but suspecting Legate in the way Shasta did, pointing out a common phrase many of us use looks bad. So, Shasta, whatcha got to say for yourself?

[Boromir88]

Usually I would never stick my neck out for Nerwen, because I never get a good read on her, and hence never ever trust her, but I think I will now. This read maybe the best I ever get on her, and I'm feeling innocent...if not congrats Nerwen.

She was the second to vote for Inziladun and the first to vote for Kit and Legate. Almost like she knew Legate was innocent and knew we would go after him. She just chose to get her vote out of the way early. Same thing with Kit.~Hakon

She's already made this point about Inzil, but you can say the same thing with Kitanna too. There was no indication that when Nerwen voted Kitanna was going to be lynched. If Kitanna felt she was in big danger of getting lynched, she would have revealed...she wouldn't have liked it, but she would have had to reveal.

Since it was Day 1, you could argue my 2nd vote made her a viable lynch option...fine. But take note that I was after Kitanna from the get go and any of the reasons against her were people bandwagoning onto my susicions. And that bandwagon really started against her once she left and Inzil hopped onto my suspicions.

I also think Pitch looks better than wilwa because even though wilwa could argue she was merely trying to save herself, she's also done a bang up job at being involved in the other wagons. Add on top of that Pitch's post where he says people should take a look at me (that of which I am much appreciated for because it made me aware of how crappy I've been playing and I need to get my rear in gear), but suddenly when I announce my suspicions on wilwa, she fires back latching onto Pitch's points suddenly saying the "re-reading" of my posts gave her a different feeling.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Usually I would never stick my neck out for Nerwen, because I never get a good read on her, and hence never ever trust her, but I think I will now.

Well, thanks.

Look, I'm curious to know what other people think of Hakon, particularly his last post, which looks very like the work of a panicky wolf to me. Note that the other two people he's accusing there are Wilwa and Sally, who have both come under a good deal of suspicion themselves, particularly the former... so what I think about them now depends on what I think about him, if you see what I mean.

Now, I've skimmed through Inzilawolf's posts, and the trouble is he's had remarkably little real interaction with, or opinion on, any living players. I mean, a more detailed analysis might reveal something, but I haven't had time for that myself.

YesterDay he voted to guard Pitchwife and lynch Brinniel. The situation then was that he had two votes, no one else had any, and Nogrod had just made a case against Brinniel. That is a major point in her favour. However, at that point Inzilawolf must have known he stood a good chance of being lynched, so we can't rule out his voting a fellow wolf to make her look better.

Inzilawolf does, though, very helpfully explain why the pack decided to miss out on the second kill. (Unless, of course, the real reason is something he wanted to distract us from– either way, his responses here are one of the main reasons I voted him.)

EDIT:clarification; X'd with Pitchwife.

[A Little Green]

Right, I'm back here and more confused than ever. I mean, no kill? Either the wolves are in confusion or want us to be.

As for Inziladun - congrats to you guys who killed him, you were smarter than I was.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I think it highly unlikely that the wolves loved to vote Inzil yesterDay. There was so much they would lose if one of them was lynched. That doesn't mean though that none of them voted for him, but I'd say that if there were one(s), it would most probably be the first ones or the last ones eg. ones who thought it would not lead into any serious trouble eventually or those who thought their case was lost in regards to Inzil and they would do better to look like wolf-lynchers themselves...

For once, I find myself agreeing with Nogrod in that if there are wolves among the Inzil-voters, they'd probably be among the first or the last ones. I'm quite certain at least one wolf voted for their fellow yesterDay, but I doubt even a very bold wolf would vote for a fellow who had gained a few votes but wasn't sure to get lynched. Following that logic, the ones that look the worst to me are Nerwen (2nd to vote Zil), Wilwa (4th) and Brinn (5th). Nilp, the 1st, looks slightly less so, since I have a hard time imagining a wolf voting for his fellow twice in a row. Nienna looks maybe the best of the Zil voters based on the order in which they voted. She was the third to vote him, at a time when he had two votes and Brinn had one, putting Zil in a clear lead.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Look, I'm curious to know what other people think of Hakon, particularly his last post, which looks very like the work of a panicky wolf to me. Note that the other two people he's accusing there are Wilwa and Sally, who have both come under a good deal of suspicion themselves, particularly the former... so what I think about them now depends on what I think about him, if you see what I mean.

Hmmm. I've been wondering about him as well. It would seem somehow too easy, with his defence of Inziladun yesterDay and all that, but then, Wilwa and Sally are about the easiest suspects you could have, and his arguments were hasty-looking as if he was desperately trying to make a case against somebody.

I'm so confused by this game right now. Possibly back soon with a list to clear my head.

[A Little Green]

I just realised something.

The numbers look pretty good for us at the moment. 11 innocents, 3 wolves. BUT if we lynch an innocent toDay, Shasta and Nessa both miss the lynch and are innocent and the wolves manage a kill next Night, we'll be down to 7 innocents and 3 wolves. With bad luck, we may, in other words, lose four innocents in one Day and one Night. Which is very, very bad.

I only hope Shasta and Nessa turn up, and if they don't I at least hope they are wolves. (Though that, too, would be kind of silly game-wise.)

[A Little Green]

LEANING INNOCENT:
Boromir - He just seems so trustworthy and makes a lot of sense and Nilp brought up a good point about his innocence.
Nienna - She's constantly making shrewd points that make me think "A wolf wouldn't say this aloud". Good vibes this far.
Nilp - Good vibes and in addition to that, I think I already mentioned that I can't see a wolf voting for a fellow twice in a row. I believe Nilp was among the first to start suspecting Inziladun in the first place.
Pitchwife - He seems genuine and I doubt he would have defended Inziladun so openly had he been his fellow.

NO IDEA:
Brinniel - I'm still waiting for the werewolf game where I have a read on her. She feels genuine, but has fooled me before.
McCaber - Too little to go on.
Nessa - Yeah.
Nogrod - I'm confused about him. His early behaviour looked downright suspicious (I believe I have said enough about that subject already...), but he has improved a lot lately. So I don't know.
Shasta - Too little to go on.
wilwa - Another who confuses me to the point of causing me a headache.

LEANING EVIL:
Hakon - I already said why in my previous post. I'm wondering - could he be a new wolf or is it too easy to be true? (Just how many things have I called too easy during this game?)
Nerwen - Aaaaaaaargh. She is making my head ache so much. Last Night I suspected her quite a bit, because a) she phrased her thought, on Day 2, in a way that seemed like she knew that Legate was not, in fact, a wolf, b) she has been acting like she knew why the wolves do this and that (a bit like Zil), and c) I certainly wouldn't put it past her to give a second vote to her fellow wolf (looking good if he gets lynched but not condemning him to a certain death at the gallows). However, her posts seem so sensible that it makes me doubtful.
Sally - I believe I have already stated why I suspect her.

Actually, now that I think of it, it's curious how Nerwen and Hakon, two of my suspects, suspect each other quite vocally. Could it be wolf-on-wolf? Hakon's sudden and hasty-looking attack on Nerwen could be something they had agreed that he do. Like, they had decided last Night that Nerwen and Hakon could pull a wolf-on-wolf suspicion thing. Hrmmmmmm.

But if Hakon is guilty and Nerwen is, too, it would make me think better of Sally, since it wouldn't quite fit the picture that Hakon pulls a planned attack on Nerwen and off-handedly mentions Sally as another one he's suspicious of.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa. Happy to see someone else around!

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I think we should also all keep Nog in mind, I know Legate ended up being innocent, but that doesn't mean Nog is. I hate to think that he's a wolf just kind of skimming through.

Exactly. I'm sort of worried that people don't take him into account at all.

I had something smart to say but can't remember what it was. My brain is leaking.


EDIT: x-ed with my topic.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Greenie

BUT if we lynch an innocent toDay, Shasta and Nessa both miss the lynch and are innocent and the wolves manage a kill next Night, we'll be down to 7 innocents and 3 wolves.

Well yes, Shasta could be modfired if he doesn't vote toDay, but Nessa still has both toDay and toMorrow to vote since she did on Day 2. I know, it's hard to remember since it was her only post. But yeah, all this potential modfire that could occur... *grumbles*

[Brinniel]

I don't really care for Pitchwife's defense in his first post toDay. It's the first thing he does at the very beginning of the Day before anyone even starts to accuse him of anything. Preparing a defense before the accusations are made can be a very wolfish thing to do.

I'm wondering how likely it is Hakon's a wolf. His strong defense for Inzil is bold and looks quite bad, but would he be so obvious were he a wolf? Though Hakon is still pretty new to WW and I don't think he's been a wolf before, so I suppose there's a chance it could've been a newbie wolf error.

[Nerwen]

The Shasta Voters:

1.Nienna.
Day 1: Lynch Inzil, guard Mnemo (2).
Day 2: Lynch Legate (5), guard Nerwen (2).
Day 3: Lynch Inzil (3), guard Shasta (1).

2.Pitchwife
Day 1: Lynch Kitanna (4), guard Boro (4).
Day 2: Lynch Legate (8), guard Nogrod (2).
Day 3: Lynch Boro, guard Shasta (2).

3.Sally
Day 1: Lynch Kitanna (6), guard Mnemo.
Day 2: Lynch Legate (12), guard Nienna.
Day 3: Lynch Nobody, guard Shasta (3).

Following Sally's own system, innocents are in italics, known wolves are underlined.

Points against them:

Well, all three were Legate voters–who wasn't? However, Pitchwife and Sally also cast very bandwagonning votes on Kit.

Pitchwife argued strongly against lynching Inzilawolf, and stressed the theory that he had been framed. I'm inclined to think Pitchy a misguided innocent, but you never know...

Sally has done little except post tallies, a favourite lupine trick for appearing to contribute more than you're doing.* She also brought Shasta to a tie.

There is nothing I can think of against Nienna, unless it's that she might indeed be a little too good to be true. *shrugs*

X'd since Brinniel at #497.
*Yes, I know I'm doing it now.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Going through Inzil's posts now (thanks wilwa...but gotta say still suspect ye )

Right back at ya buddy.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Random Thought 1.1

I don't think the wolves would seek to guard themselves. Why would vote to guard their fellows. Why would they seek to remove one of their own from the night time discussions? Wouldn't they desire to have full input from their fellows.

We know they found the way to beat the guard votes, but I can't see wolves seeking to NG one of their own, unless if there was no choice and it was a throw away to mislead us...But because of Inzil's guard votes, I'm inclined to think Pitch is innocent, and Nogrod probably too, but there is more doubt since that bandwagon made it pretty clear Nogrod would be protected.

Still it wouldn't make sense for wolves to want to NG eachother, especially a Nogwolf, he would not want to be silenced during the night.

I have to agree with this. Maybe they'd vote for one another if they thought there was no chance that person would actually be guarded, but if anyone who's been guarded ends up being a wolf then those who vote for them at certain times would look rather innocent I think.

I think we should also all keep Nog in mind, I know Legate ended up being innocent, but that doesn't mean Nog is. I hate to think that he's a wolf just kind of skimming through. Even though I don't really get a wolf vibe from him, but I still can't get the idea that it wasn't a bluff the second time. Driving me nuts.

Hakon is kinda bugging me. He's contributing more then usual, which is great, but his suspicions are either gut feelings or things that can apply to him (like Nerwen listed).

[satansaloser2005]

Doing Hakon now, but I have to say it's already looking pretty dark for him too.

(Oh, and sorry, Nienna dear. I've not read your Hakon analysis yet because I want to make sure I'm as unbiased as possible.)


Quick vote count (if it doesn't make me look suspicious)

Lynch:
Nerwen-->Hakon
Greenie-->Hakon (2)
Wilwa-->Cabbie
Boro-->Wilwa

Guard:
Nerwen-->Nienna
Greenie-->Boro
Sally-->Nienna (2)
Wilwa-->Nienna (3)
Boro-->Nilp

[satansaloser2005]

Hasn't changed since my last vote count, so it was easy. Yay!

Lynch:
Nerwen-->Hakon
Greenie-->Hakon (2)
Wilwa-->Cabbie
Boro-->Wilwa

Guard:
Nerwen-->Nienna
Greenie-->Boro
Sally-->Nienna (2)
Wilwa-->Nienna (3)
Boro-->Nilp

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by McCaber

About the one kill: our mod said yesterDay that the wolves would only get one night kill on top of alona. Since we lynched Inzil, presumably that means that the wolves only got one kill total, which they then used on alona instead of who they really wanted.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Huh, ok....so let's say Shasta or Nessa don't vote again toDay and one of them gets modfired, will the wolves lose there kill again toNight??? Eonwe? I mean that's awesome and all for us, but it doesn't seem fair for them. I had thought they only lose a kill from modfires when there was still 4 of them....totally confused.

Well I got the same impression as Wilwa and I don't see how it could be otherwise.

Which leaves us basicaly two chances; either the wolves missed the kill (no one PM'd it in time) or then there is a secret role that annihilated their try.

But then again that probably should not be our main concern now (wondering why McCaber thought that quote up there is the only thing he has to say to contribute).

I have a host of confusing thoughts in my mind as well and I'll try to arrange them in my head a bit before voicing them but I'd like to state the first one already now.

Where did that "guard Shasta" -movement come from? That is a thing I find reaally bothering. I mean no offence Shasta, but you haven't actually contributed in this game. Let's say the wolves actually killed fex. an innocent Nerwen, Wilwa, Boro... (eg. someone who has actually helped us a lot and here for argument's sake is innocent) and you thought it was more important to guard Shasta...

I'm not saying Shasta would be a wolf, probably not, but neither was there any foreseeable danger he would have been killed during the Night.

Okay, I'll go back to read things...


EDIT: Added the ending to one sentence which for some reason was not there...

[Pitchwife]

*briefly breaks his seclusion to assimilate what's going on*

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Ok, I didn't believe Legate, because I didn't find it conceivable that the wolves would not take advantage of their 2-kills...obviously I was wrong (and so did everyone else who decided to vote Legate)

Fair enough - most of us made the same mistake. What bothered me was that when it became clear such an inconceivable frame had indeed happened, you didn't feel a need to comment on the fact but acted a bit like it never happened. But I suppose RL interference may be blamed for that.

Hakon, may I suggest you listen to Nerwen? After our shared blunder yesterDay, both of us would do well to do some thorough thinking before throwing around any wild suspicions.
As for Sally - I think her lack of a lynch vote is explained sufficiently by her #450, but her Guard vote which created that three-way tie worries me too, and thanks for pointing it out. It doesn't necessarily implicate Nerwen the way you construe it - a wolf-Sally might as well have wanted to make it harder for an innocent Nerwen to be Guarded, as an innocent Nerwen surely would have been a likely wolf-target. (By the way, Nerwen looks much better to me now Zil's guilt is revealed, and with hindsight I'd have preferred the protection to go to her.)
Why vote Shasta at all? As for myself, I remembered this by Brinn:

He's made few posts so far, but the ones he made do make me think him innocentish. I find Shasta is a good person to trust, so I'd like to know for sure that I can.

and it seemed a good reason to me. I'd also like to find out if those psychic powers of his really are what they're cracked up to be. It's possible Sally voted him for the same reason; and now I think of it, it's also possible that with her tallies gone to the virtual orcus, she wasn't aware of creating a three-way tie.
*back to seclusion for now*