Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Eönwë]

In fact, you jumping on that is making me start to find you suspicious. In fact, maybe my phantom-Zil-Boro triangle wasn't as far-fetched as I'd first thought. Of course, Boro was innocent, but then again, he was the most vocal and outspoken of the three of you, so maybe he was just an innocent that happened to join in?

Looking at the phantom:

I've thought him innocent for most of the game, but look at these coincidences:

• Doesn't lynch vote on Day 1. He misses it even though he was the one keeping the tallies. And in addition, he is always the one who said that not voting at all was a bad idea. Admittedly, in the context it was about rep-voting, but still, phantom (the powerhungry) not voting seems a bit wrong. Seems like he's avoiding the risk of lynching an innocent (Boro), or any of the two who voted for him, because he wants support toMorrow. And also, if he is really a wolf, then voting Lottie would be a very bad move (obviously). In fact, whatever he says now, he defended the two of them for all of Day 1. Also, lynching an already-dead fellow is grounds for suspicion too, so he would've wanted to avoid that.
• Lack of a rep vote toDay. He was the one doing all the counting and stuff, yet he didn't vote. Voting Kath would've been bad, considering that she had already said she couldn't be a rep, and voting anyone with no votes would seem a throwaway vote. Giving a rep another vote would just create imbalance, which would surely cause a bit of controversy, since everyone seems to be sticking to the "two-votes-per-rep" plan these days.

Of course, other than a few other minor things, this is generally where my suspicion for phantom ends, because he hasn't done anything else to make him look guilty, and in fact many of his posts feel very innocent. Still we all know how cunning he is (or at least professes to be), so I'm sure he could be fooling us. And purposefully/mistakenly missing votes seems very uncharacteristic for phantom (though I admit for both evil or innocent phantom). But not voting (once in a while so that it's not as obvious) would probably be more advantageous for an elf. So let's assume he's evil for the purposes of this post and see how the 'scenario/model' plays out.



Moving onto Inzil and the links between the two of them next.

edit: x-ed since Lommy's list.

edit 2: formatting

[Eönwë]

Well, this was actually meant to be part of the same post as the last, but then I decided to split them, so just assume they're linked as one.

I've been trying to find stuff (good or bad) about Inzil, but the problem is that I can't, because there's not much I can say. He's far too slippery, which is not good at all. There's nothing really that can be taken as a strong sign of innocence or evilness, and the only real way to judge him is to look at his links with other people.

That's why I've chosen the phantom. Now, let's assume that he's evil (see last post) and in league with the phantom. Consider these under this light:

• He is the first to show dissent against everyone voting phantom (#6). So obviously, this would be a good way to start an argument without actually suspecting someone.
• Later on he says "I don't know whether tp is a SoE, but I flat-out disagree with him on this" (#225)And that generally sums up his approach to the phantom. Arguing with him but not suspecting him. A perfect way to distance yourselves and not get either of you in trouble (i.e., danger of lynching). And these sorts of arguments generally look innocent.
• Votes Boro for rep on Day 1, cementing the above comment.
• "Why is the phantom still alive?" The easiest way to suspect someone without giving evidence or making anyone seem too evil.

He also only once gives out clear suspicions of everyone. On Day 2.

The link also continues (Though weaker) throughout the rest of the game, but I'm too tired to look in more detail at the rest right now.

Besides, I get the feeling that really, one of them is probably evil, while the other might not necessarily be. If this is the case, I suspect that Inziladun slowly tried to associate himself with phantom, so that he could take him down with him if he looked guilty.



Or maybe I'm just over-thinking.


edit: fell asleep at my keyboard. x-ed since my last post.

[the phantom]

If we have a single-lynch today, there will be ten of us tomorrow. Now, suppose that the Seer somehow has a way to deliver to you the names of three innocents (or his own name plus two innocents, still adding up to three).

That will leave 7 total unknowns, with 3 Elves (2 if we're lucky today) hidden in their midst.

Since there will be 10 total, we will be able to elect 5 reps. And with 5 reps, we can lynch 5 people.

So, the proven innocents come up with a voting plan, mandate who the reps should be and who should vote for them, ensuring that there are 5 total. Then everyone debates between the 7 non-provens and decides which 5 to lynch (this should be decided EARLY- start doing it in the first half of the day).

The proven innocents then tell the 2 reps who aren't proven to cast their lynch votes for one of the 5 candidates decided upon. Once they've voted and thus everything is safe, the 3 provens split their votes on the other 3, thus clinching a 5-way tie. With numbers like that, I'd say the odds would be favorable that we'd lynch the Elves, or at the least not have more than 1 left alive.

If 1 is left alive, then naturally he will slay one of the provens during the night, but the next day there will be 4 villagers left and 2 of them proven innocent. And so those two tell the remaining two to make them Reps by casting a vote for either of them, and then the 2 known innocents proceed to lynch the two other villagers to secure the victory. If the Elf refuses to cast his Rep vote the final day, then of course everyone will know for a fact precisely who he is and the 2 provens can vote for the other unknown and he can lynch the last Elf.

So... thoughts? I'd say it's a darn good plan.

[Folwren]

What if the seer doesn't live through the night? What if we lynch the seer? What if we don't believe the person who says they're the seer?

[Folwren]

What if an elf says they're a seer, we believe him, and he names his two cohorts?

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Foley

What if the seer doesn't live through the night? What if we lynch the seer? What if we don't believe the person who says they're the seer?

Originally Posted by Foley

What if an elf says they're a seer, we believe him, and he names his two cohorts?

The Seer doesn't have to live through the night if he's already dreamed 3 innocents.

As far as belief, you've just got to hope that the true Seer is more believable than the fake one. I mean, that's always the case in any village. It's just that I'm suggesting perhaps instead of drawing things out we go for a huge massive lynch and either win or lose.

(I'm fairly certain my enthusiasm for such a plan is partly due to my wish for a greater amount of sleep.)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by the phantom

(I'm fairly certain my enthusiasm for such a plan is partly due to my wish for a greater amount of sleep.)

Suck it up. You pout like a little spoiled girl whose daddy just said no for the first time.

[Folwren]

I will actually not go over Day 1 or the first half of Day 2, because I can sumarize it pretty well. Mostly what she did on Day 1 was bicker with Phantom and point accusingly at Sally, saying she looked much more wolfish than Lottie. She spoke very little about Lottie and she spent both her votes on Sally.

Day 2, she really ripped into Sally. Some of her posts were what I saw when I was trying to decide what to do that night. At the time, I trusted Greenie. As I said, it was only until today that I started distrusting her.

Originally Posted by Sally in post 453

Barring Seer reveals, this game is all about speculation, isn't it? I'm not saying Sally must be an elf, but her behaviour really makes me suspect she is - and when you gave a more or less logical explanation as to why she and Lottie could have been elves together after all I naturally felt inclined to agree with it. Does that make sense?

She was talking to Nerwen. This was day 2. She seems to be saying that although it is unlikely that Sally and Lottie were elves together, Nerwen's explenation made sense, so she agreed. I actually don't know where or when Nerwen talked about both Sally and Lottie being elves together....I just figured that myself. I thought it'd be really sneaky and if Sally had turned out to be an elf, I would've probably lobbied to kill Phantom, but that's another matter...

It seems that Greenie was really looking for ways to bump Sally off. But by itself, that's understandable. I, for one, certainly can't complain as I was the one who actually killed her.

Throughout day 2, she seems to think that Wilwa is innocent. Good, good... at least she's consistant in disliking sally and only sally.

She likes Nerwen Day1 and Day2. But Day3, she changes her tune. I don't like her reasoning against Nerwen at all. I've looked at the same posts, and I think Nerwen looks reasonably innocent. In fact, I think Nerwen is quite trustable...but that's just my own opinion.

Originally Posted by Greenie towards end of day3

Well. Of Celuien and Rune, I'd certainly prefer Cel as I think I have a read on Rune and I think he's innocent. Of Wilwa, Zil and Sally, then - I find Wilwa very innocent and wouldn't have you vote her, I'm not convinced either way about Zil, and as I said I certainly wouldn't mind seeing Sally lynched.

I think if Greenie is guilty, Rune may be, too.

Originally Posted by Greenie, earlier toDay

This logic doesn't make sense to me. I know I'm not an elf but I also know you can't know it. The thing is, it doesn't make sense even if I was an elf. It would take a ridiculously paranoid pack of elves to read #407 as a Seer hint, especially as Nog didn't behave towards me in a manner that would suggest him "knowing" I was an elf.

The logic that she is referring to is in Nerwen's post;

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The other, very outside possibility is that he "dreamed" Greenie as an Elf– see #407. However, the fact that Nog said no more of this, and was more than happy to lynch someone else should have tipped the Elves off, not to mention the fact that his actual "hint" posts (#391, #400, #469, #480) were all about the phantom and Sally. Still, Elves do panic sometimes.

Because of Greenie's reaction, Nerwen posted that she thought Greenie over-reacted, and Greenie responded, deflecting...but I wonder...?

Here's what she said in response to Nerwen's, 'Why did you react like that?'

Originally Posted by Greenie

I know! The difference is that you seemed to consider it as a possibility, whereas I don't - even if I was a SoE it would be so ridiculously paranoid that I don't think it would be an option.

In post 572, she lists who she thinks is innocent and guilty....nothing out of it now, except she puts in her innocent list some people I have in mine...

She proceeds to vote Inzil in as Rep, although she uncertain about him...

And time is running so short that I'll post this even though it's not finished and maybe finish it in another post.

[Nerwen]

Having internet trouble at again, so sorry about not being around.

But I've read through things and I will say this quickly– I am now quite concerned about Greenie, and no, it's not just retaliation.

She analysed me and said there were some things she found suspicious, and that she might consider lynching me if I didn't provide proper answers to her questions. Fine, though I think the points were pretty minor.

Then, she keeps talking about me, and with each repetition I become more and more THE suspect, leading up to her voting me. (Recall that there's no further input from me in between any of these posts.) It looks manufactured.

EDIT:X'd with Zil.

[Folwren]

K, this does NOT make sense:

Originally Posted by Greenie

It (being Sally being the seer) did cross my mind, yes, but like Nerwen I rejected the idea quite soon seeing how she behaved after the vote. That brings me nicely to talk about why I suspected Sally, since that has been questioned. Her rep vote on Day 1 was odd to be sure, but what I found really suspicious and what made me vote her over Lottie on Day 1 and continue finding her elvish on Day 2 was how she posted, otherwise. Her purposeful hiding behind phantom, jumpiness, and open opportunism (such as not saying she suspected Lottie because that would be seen as suspicious) made me seriously suspect her. Obviously I was wrong, but at that time it seemed reasonable.

If Sally were smart enough as a seer NOT to do what she did, why would she not be smart enough as an elf not to do what she did? If Greenie thought she was smart enough not do that as a seer, why would Greenie think she was an elf when that move was almost equally as stupid?

Okay...so after looking at all of Greenie's posts, my main problem really lies with that she doesn't seem to have good reasons to suspect people. I think she weaves thick webs for the people she chooses to kill. Her web caught me and I killed Sally. I strongly think that Nerwen is innocent, and I think that Greenie's post against her is flimsy, but if I weren't so convinced of Nerwen's innocence, I can see being swayed by it.

If she's an elf, she's playing it really well. But I don't trust her.

And I know that all that review and analysis was really bad, but it's the best I can do with the time I've got plus with my inexperience at this.

-- Foley

x-posted since my last post.