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Old 10-26-2010, 11:22 PM   #1
Nerwen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by EW
A BW would be extremely concerned about not being lynched. Also, xe would try to prevent either the innocents or the wolves from winning.

A wolf would be concerned about the safety of fellow packmates.

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Mr. Goatleaf does have an incentive to stay alive; he probably would want to stay alive long enough for Mr. Ferny to find him and thus be able to communicate with him.
In other words, you can't really tell... not enough to take the risk of leaving a suspicious person to his or her own devices.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis
But then that begs the question "what if the wolves act like the BW" which opens up an entirely new can of worms.
Precisely, my pearl. I'm sure we all remember how, in days of yore when a leave-the-cobbler-alone school of thought prevailed, it was common for wolves to pretend to be the cobbler.
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Old 10-27-2010, 02:01 AM   #2
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Poor Fea. Mind you, at least now I can keep that wight wine I barrowed from her.
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Old 10-27-2010, 03:34 AM   #3
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I have this vision [stricktly not of a Seerish kind] that if the world was a ball (yea, sounds silly), there'd be a slightly oversized hamster inside of it, rolling the ball from inside.

Uh, excuse me for that. I think it's just aftershock. Even though these are dark times, not often does one hear about something as freaky as that.

I do not mean this as a discouragement for discussion, but at such an early point it, it might be dangerous to speculate seriously whether a Wolf would act like xe was the BW. Even though the BW isn't too harmful now, and can even be really useful later on, it is in our nature to banish all evil, be it harmful or not.
Yet, the BW is probably more honest in xis accusations than either the Wolves or the Cobblers, as it would make more sense to stay away of being suspected as a Wolf. The BW's best chance is thus being honest at what xe says and siding with the village, since the Wolves aren't a threat to xim.

Unfortunately I've done more than my share of giving unwanted advice for now as I'm late from an appointment. Back in several hours.
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Old 10-27-2010, 04:02 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Volo
Yet, the BW is probably more honest in xis accusations than either the Wolves or the Cobblers, as it would make more sense to stay away of being suspected as a Wolf. The BW's best chance is thus being honest at what xe says and siding with the village, since the Wolves aren't a threat to xim.
I agree with the first part - the BW doesn't know anyone's role, and since s/he wants everyone dead, s/he has no motive to protect anybody - except maybe if s/he thought somebody is useful for his/her purposes. The BW's number one priority during Day phase is to avoid getting lynched, and especially early on it makes no sense for him/her to choose sides. Therefore, I'm sorry to sound like a pessimist but I don't think catching the BW is, at this point, very possible unless by accident - and nor is the BW a considerable enough threat yet to distract us from the wolves.

If we want to discuss roles, I'd like to see more discussion on the cobblers and less on the BW, actually, since I'm highly doubtful we can catch the BW anytime soon. I was contemplating the cobbler issue just now, trying to make out how serious a threat they present. In the most fearsome scenario, Ferny finds out the identity of one or more wolves, and can relate the information to the other cobbler - and suddenly we have potentially as much as five baddies working together. It's also possible that Ferny never gets lucky and we have two more or less blind cobblers who can be just as mistaken about the identity of the wolves as the rest of us.
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Old 10-27-2010, 05:38 AM   #5
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*waves*

Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!) and that if deadline is 11pm GMT then I should, bar any unforeseen circumstances, be here at deadline.

While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form. It's been way too long since I played with them.
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Old 10-27-2010, 05:54 AM   #6
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Quote:
Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!)
Kath, you impress me!
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Old 10-27-2010, 06:06 AM   #7
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Hello, folks!

Still have not heard anything from about a third of our current population, so it's a bit too early to get all serious with conclusions based on tiny little hunches, but if anyone's around and not knowing what exactly to say, I'd like to ask the following: What has currently been fashionable to do with Day1s? Talk about the weather and then lynch anyone who's name starts with an M? (Which would be quite troublesome in the current game...)
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Old 10-27-2010, 06:21 AM   #8
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Originally Posted by Volo View Post
Still have not heard anything from about a third of our current population, so it's a bit too early to get all serious with conclusions based on tiny little hunches
Nonsense! It's never too early!

Quote:
What has currently been fashionable to do with Day1s?
I have been very much into talking about the cobbler(s) for the last year or two. General rule-talk is also popular. Basically it's just whatever you find worth saying.
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Old 10-27-2010, 07:02 AM   #9
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kath View Post
While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form.
We should kill Kath before we regret it later.

Form too.
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Old 10-27-2010, 07:13 AM   #10
A Little Green
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Agan
My pessimist side is inclined to agree with Greenie... But it's the same with the BW as it is with wolves on day 1 - even though they haven't done anything, they have the knowledge that they're not allied with the rest of the village, and sometimes that knowledge shows in their posts.
Good point, though I have to disagree with a part of it. With the wolves, I think what potentially shows already on Day 1 is not so much their not being allied with the village, but the fact that they know almost everyone's alignment, and therefore every "opinion" they give is not genuine. The BW has no such knowledge, and will likely seem just like and ordo in that sense.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Agan
That's highly unlikely, though... Even if Ferny can make himself known to one of the wolves, the wolf isn't probably going to list her fellows to him - for all she knows, the Ferny might in fact be a tricksy seer. Hmm it seems this game might be even more difficult to the baddies than it is for us.
I know it's unlikely. That is why I labelled it as "the most fearsome scenario" instead of "the likely scenario", you know. It was simply the worst possible scenario I could come up with when thinking about the cobbler business.


EDIT: x-ed with Agan
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Old 10-27-2010, 08:23 AM   #11
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[IC]You folks all sound so dreadfully sober - have you all turned teatotallers or what? And with Barley's beer being the best on the East Road! Maybe a song will liven you up a bit...
*stands on table and sings to a well known, but barely recognizable tune*

There is an inn, a merry old inn,
with a hey dol derry dillo,
And there they brew a beer so brown
That the Man in the Moon himself came down
one night to drink his fill-o
And there he dozed and dreamed of ale,
the barmaid's bosom his pillow,
Till the landlord lifts his hand
Over snoring drunkards, broken mugs and beer-soaked ashtrays...


*looks sheepishly at the circle of serious, disapproving faces, mumbles something and climbs off the table to help himself to another pint*[/IC]

OK, to business. As for the cobblers, we've had this discussion any number of times, and the big problem is, as always, that it's not so easy to tell cobblerish evil from wolvish evil. TEW has a point that they would very likely prefer not to be lynched (or Night-killed*, for that matter) before they've had a chance to communicate, but then again, I think a good cobbler won't mind to be lynched in order to save who he thinks is a wolf, especially when there's two of them. On the wolves' side, we can't count on them being visibly protective of their packmates either - some will, others won't hesitate to bus one another, it really depends on the player. So the long and short of it is, if it looks suspicious, lynch it and we'll find out what it was.
(*Aside, does anybody else think that Boro included two cobblers in this game in order to increase the chance that at least one of them won't be eaten by the wolves?)

Now, Tom and the Barrow-Wight. I agree with Shasta and Nerwen that it'll be tricky to find the BW, so for the moment, leaving xem to Tom may be our best chance. If, however, we think we have a good idea who xe is, or if the Seer dreams xem and decides to reveal, I'm for getting rid of xem as soon as possible, rather than wait for Tom to get xem. According to the Rules, the stunning occurs at the beginning of the Night, so the BW can try to protect xemself by stunning Tom and work mischief for another Day; and unlike the Seer, Tom can't reveal - so if we're extremely unlucky, we might even mislynch Tom instead of the BW, and what then?

Another thing: I think at the beginning at least, while there's still three or two wolves, the BW is a bigger danger to us than to them: he can prevent our Seer and Ranger from helping us, but if he stuns a wolf, the rest will still get a Night-kill.
They'll want to get rid of him sooner or later, so that a lone wolf won't lose a kill by being stunned, but they'll probably want to keep him around for the first few Days (unless we get lucky and lynch some wolves rather soon). For this reason, I'm not at all comfortable with Lottie's suggestion to leave a suspected BW alive till next Day.

(x-ed with a lot)
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Old 10-27-2010, 06:17 AM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inziladun View Post
Shall we go ahead and have it out now that suspected Cobblers should be lynched in the absence of lupine targets?
*likes this plan*

Quote:
Originally Posted by Loslote View Post
But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.
Sounds reasonable, but what do we really learn from it? If half the village said, "I think Lottie is the Barrow-Wight and Bombadil should try to drive her out tonight!" and you were still alive the following day, how can we tell Bombadil chose you and not someone else? We'd still keep arguing about whether you're the BW or not.

The BW can afford to be opportunistic and side with whomever she thinks benefits her the most. However, she can do much more damage to us than to the evil side - blocking the seer or the ranger is more serious for us than excluding a wolf from communication with her pack or stopping Ferny from spying is for them. Therefore I suggest that the one she stunned for the night says it out loud in the thread the next day, just to narrow down the field of possible BWs and make things easier for Tom/us.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior View Post
Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.
Yes, but if he spies on a wolf, he will want to let her know. Therefore we should make things as difficult for them as possible and not let weird communication between people (or comments that basically shout "Sir! Spy on me! Spy on me!") go unnoticed.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin View Post
But then that begs the question "what if the wolves act like the BW" which opens up an entirely new can of worms.
That's a good point. We can of course hope that the BW can spot impersonating attempts and, in her pride, stuns the person in question as a punishment.

Quote:
Originally Posted by A Little Green View Post
especially early on it makes no sense for him/her to choose sides. Therefore, I'm sorry to sound like a pessimist but I don't think catching the BW is, at this point, very possible unless by accident - and nor is the BW a considerable enough threat yet to distract us from the wolves.
My pessimist side is inclined to agree with Greenie... But it's the same with the BW as it is with wolves on day 1 - even though they haven't done anything, they have the knowledge that they're not allied with the rest of the village, and sometimes that knowledge shows in their posts. I have no reason not to believe we can't catch the BW, but yes the wolves & cobblers should still be our priority.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenie
If we want to discuss roles, I'd like to see more discussion on the cobblers
I like this game! Everyone wants to talk about the cobblers!

Quote:
Originally Posted by Greenie
and suddenly we have potentially as much as five baddies working together.
That's highly unlikely, though... Even if Ferny can make himself known to one of the wolves, the wolf isn't probably going to list her fellows to him - for all she knows, the Ferny might in fact be a tricksy seer. Hmm it seems this game might be even more difficult to the baddies than it is for us.
But yes I agree with Greenie that the risk of getting a big baddie team is pretty high, and that's why we definitely shouldn't ignore the cobblers either. They are at their most dangerous when they have a way to find/contact the wolves.

As for Butterbur, the longer he stays alive the better. Of course his death is good for us even early in the game, but the wolves' missing a kill means much more later on when there are fewer people alive.
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Last edited by Aganzir; 10-27-2010 at 06:18 AM. Reason: xed since Greenie
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Old 10-27-2010, 06:29 AM   #13
Volo
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Thanks for the answer, Agan.
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Last edited by Volo; 10-27-2010 at 06:30 AM. Reason: x:d with Agan
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Old 10-27-2010, 07:11 AM   #14
Aganzir
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Now that I think of it, there's actually a way we can know whom Tom chose... Only everybody should agree to it, otherwise it doesn't work.

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Everyone should say what they think of it, and if even one person thinks it isn't a good idea, we don't do it (who knows, that person might be Tom himself).

Although hmm there are also a few problems. Firstly, the BW might have stunned Tom. Secondly, it doesn't tell us anything about the person's allegiance, only that she isn't the BW. Still, I think it's worth discussing.
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