Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Kath]

*waves*

Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!) and that if deadline is 11pm GMT then I should, bar any unforeseen circumstances, be here at deadline.

While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form. It's been way too long since I played with them.

[A Little Green]

Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!)

Kath, you impress me!

[Volo]

Hello, folks!

Still have not heard anything from about a third of our current population, so it's a bit too early to get all serious with conclusions based on tiny little hunches, but if anyone's around and not knowing what exactly to say, I'd like to ask the following: What has currently been fashionable to do with Day1s? Talk about the weather and then lynch anyone who's name starts with an M? (Which would be quite troublesome in the current game...)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Volo

Still have not heard anything from about a third of our current population, so it's a bit too early to get all serious with conclusions based on tiny little hunches

Nonsense! It's never too early!

What has currently been fashionable to do with Day1s?

I have been very much into talking about the cobbler(s) for the last year or two. General rule-talk is also popular. Basically it's just whatever you find worth saying.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Kath

While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form.

We should kill Kath before we regret it later.

Form too.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

My pessimist side is inclined to agree with Greenie... But it's the same with the BW as it is with wolves on day 1 - even though they haven't done anything, they have the knowledge that they're not allied with the rest of the village, and sometimes that knowledge shows in their posts.

Good point, though I have to disagree with a part of it. With the wolves, I think what potentially shows already on Day 1 is not so much their not being allied with the village, but the fact that they know almost everyone's alignment, and therefore every "opinion" they give is not genuine. The BW has no such knowledge, and will likely seem just like and ordo in that sense.

Originally Posted by Agan

That's highly unlikely, though... Even if Ferny can make himself known to one of the wolves, the wolf isn't probably going to list her fellows to him - for all she knows, the Ferny might in fact be a tricksy seer. Hmm it seems this game might be even more difficult to the baddies than it is for us.

I know it's unlikely. That is why I labelled it as "the most fearsome scenario" instead of "the likely scenario", you know. It was simply the worst possible scenario I could come up with when thinking about the cobbler business.


EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

With the wolves, I think what potentially shows already on Day 1 is not so much their not being allied with the village, but the fact that they know almost everyone's alignment, and therefore every "opinion" they give is not genuine.

Yeah that's true, but we have no way of knowing what's genuine and what isn't until we have more information, and even then there might be misguided innocents who look ah so guilty. Although I suppose my comment about the knowledge of not being innocent showing in the wolves' posts comes, in the end, down to the posts not looking genuine... So we seem to be talking about essentially the same thing, just from different points of view.
Anyway I still think it's possible to see the BW is hiding something, just like players might look different when they're playing a gifted.

I like Greenie for now. This is unusual because normally I always suspect her.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

We should kill Kath before we regret it later.

Form too.

*awaits Kath's response*

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Now that I think of it, there's actually a way we can know whom Tom chose... Only everybody should agree to it, otherwise it doesn't work.

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Everyone should say what they think of it, and if even one person thinks it isn't a good idea, we don't do it (who knows, that person might be Tom himself).

Although hmm there are also a few problems. Firstly, the BW might have stunned Tom. Secondly, it doesn't tell us anything about the person's allegiance, only that she isn't the BW. Still, I think it's worth discussing.

Too complicated, I think.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Yes, but if he spies on a wolf, he will want to let her know. Therefore we should make things as difficult for them as possible and not let weird communication between people (or comments that basically shout "Sir! Spy on me! Spy on me!") go unnoticed.

That is something: there's certainly liable to be some kind of signalling among the baddies– they've got a lot to gain by it this game. That doesn't mean it'll be anything so obvious, of course.

EDIT:X'd with Agan.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

I'd still wonder how we're to single out wightish behavior. The BW will have an interest in lying low and not attracting attention. And not being tied to a particular side will make it that much easier to do that.

Overall, I'd agree with those who say the BW should not be the first priority here. But as I said, if xe's outed by a Seer dream and we don't have a better choice, go for the lynch. Otherwise, leave it to Tom.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'd still wonder how we're to single out wightish behavior. The BW will have an interest in lying low and not attracting attention. And not being tied to a particular side will make it that much easier to do that.

Overall, I'd agree with those who say the BW should not be the first priority here. But as I said, if xe's outed by a Seer dream and we don't have a better choice, go for the lynch. Otherwise, leave it to Tom.

The real question is, how do we get rid of Tom? Apparently he's one of the "evils" too:

Originally Posted by The Rules

The innocents win if they eliminate all evils from their town (wolves and Barrow-wight) - this includes Tom Bombadil.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The real question is, how do we get rid of Tom? Apparently he's one of the "evils" too:

Heh. I read that as meaning Tom wins if he and the rest of the innocents get rid of the wolves and the BW. Unless Tom's been hiding some dark secret?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Volo

Even though the BW isn't too harmful now, and can even be really useful later on, it is in our nature to banish all evil, be it harmful or not.

I agree with this. If the Barrow-Wight isn't on our side, she's (potentially) against us, and I'd much rather we didn't have to worry about her in the later stages when it really matters whether she plays for us or for the wolves.

As for speculating on whether a wolf might try to pretend to be the BW, why not? If there's a consensus we're not going to lynch someone just because they look like the BW, it'll be more than convenient for a wolf to do exactly that. Wolves have pretended to be cobblers if the village has thought finding the cobbler isn't important.
However, impersonating the BW is almost equal to trying to look like an ordo which is what wolves do, anyway...

Originally Posted by Volo

since the Wolves aren't a threat to xim.

Ah but what happens if the wolves attack the BW? They will know who she is and should they choose so, they can join forces. Of course it's highly risky assuming the BW decides she has better chances if she plays for the village, but still... That's the ultimate worst-case scenario: three wolves, two cobblers and the BW all playing together.

For the record, I'm most likely not going to vote for Form or Volo today because it's ages since I played with them.

edit: xed with Nerwen & Zil. I read it the same way as Zil, although it did give me a moment's what the heck pause when I first read it.

[Aganzir]

GUILTY
sally. I read her post and was like, "What. The. Heck?" As I said, she basically repeats what has been said about me, and votes for me because "I can see an evil her doing what she did." She has played with me enough times to know me better. Also, she claims I only want to get rid of the BW. That's utter nonsense - my opinion is that we shouldn't ignore her, it's not the same as making lynching her our primary goal.
Glirdan. Seems kind of easy-going. I don't know what to think of his being the only one to like my BW voting plan (in hindsight I agree it'd probably be too confusing); when most people seem to say it's problematic, it would probably make sense for a baddie to try to back it up. And I agree with Greenie on random votes.
Volo. I still don't understand why he thinks the BW could reveal stuff about gifteds if threatened with a lynch. I'm probably not the right person to say anything about this, but I'm also a bit worried about how much he seems to concentrate on the BW. Also, he only suspects Greenie but votes for me (when I already have a vote).

INNOCENT
Greenie. I mostly agree with her and she looks normal (as opposed to a statue, I mean, forced - sorry ).
Pitch. Makes more sense than most others (especially his points about the BW are good) and looks innocentish.
wilwa. I thought her initial reaction to my BW suggestions was really suspicious, but then she brought up the possibility of the stunned having died in the night. Now she looks more innocent than guilty.
EW. Hasn't said enough for me to form a solid opinion, but seems more innocent than guilty.

EITHER
Inzil. I like that he pointed out that a cobbler shouldn't be ignored - but then again, that seems to be the modus operandi after last game. Apart from that, I don't have anything about him.
Lottie. I don't really like her insistence that we shouldn't try to lynch the BW. Pitch has a good point against her, but I haven't seen enough from her (apart from BW talk) to have a real opinion.
Nog. Misunderstands me so badly I'm half tempted to think it's intentional... but then, Nog and I have a history of disagreeing. His main points against me are based on the said misunderstanding, and the rest of his points look exaggerated as if he was just trying to put me in a bad light. However, I'll abstain from further comments till he's back and has explained himself.

The rest haven't said enough for me to form a solid opinion on them. However I'm going to kill Eomer if I end up being lynched.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

we would have to assume that the Wolves and Cobblers are going along with this and would be coming forward if stunned, and that doesn't seem like something they'd want to do

I can't see how it would harm them. On the contrary - the BW would know they didn't want to make it public, and should she choose to play for us, she might find a way to share that information. Plus giving the impression of cooperating with the village is never a bad idea for a wolf...
It's probably not much use to talk about it anymore, though, because it's as you said - the BW can easily pretend to have been stunned if her pick for the night has died.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

could be a bold Aganwolf attempting to lead and manipulate us, could just as well be an innocent Agan trying actively to make strategies that would benefit us.

Trust me, this time it's the latter.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

that revealing will only mean confusion and opportunities especially for the cobblers to toy with.

And why should the cobbler want to cause confusion that way and draw attention to herself. Yeah of course there might be some situations, but I think you make it sound much bigger a problem than it really would be. In this game, the cobblers probably want to survive as long as possible.

I can see you are not exactly saying there that the gifteds should reveal...

Seriously Nog. Either you are completely underestimating my intelligence or being dishonest. I would never in my right mind suggest the gifteds to reveal just like that.

you've tried it now two times - more or less succesfully - to make us discuss other things than who the wolves are.

And what would Mr. Nogrod like to discuss on day 1 when barely half the village has posted? This person is a wolf because she posted first, that isn't because she said "I want to vote for a quiet one!"?
I have talked about something else than who the wolves are. So what? If we want to discuss the freaking rules (and I wanted), what's a better time for that than day 1? What's the issue? See, now you're making me talk of irrelevant (ie. something else than who's a wolf) things more and more, the next thing you're probably going to throw it back in my face: "She isn't talking of wolves lynch her!!!"

we have been talking about it considerably, aka. not trying to find the wolves (like I'm now losing my time answering your plan and what you have said about it

Well, for that you can only blame yourself, not me.

I really feel like voting Nog at the moment because he looks fairly bad and that's simply not like him. He's totally twisting my words and trying to put me in a bad light.

[Aganzir]

GUILTY
Nogrod. I'm really torn about him. It seems he's being all crazy only when he's talking with/about me - his "how about we lynch a submarine?" suggestion was good, and I find myself agreeing with his post #98 - but then he keeps misunderstanding me and continues his ridiculous cobbler campaign. Plus what Shasta & Nerwen mentioned about the holes in his argument.
sally. I dislike her vote for me yesterday ("Agan could do this as a baddie, ergo she is a baddie"), she just agreed on what others (mostly Volo) had said about me. Plus, I find this comment off:

Originally Posted by sally

Seems like there'll be a wagon banding together. Hope it's a good one!

It might be just me, but I'd think an innocent reaction to a day 1 bandwagon would be "Eep, I hope it's not a catastrophe," but sally seems like she doesn't care.
Volo. Again, I'm suspicious of him because he suspects me (but when you're innocent, you know everyone who attacks you is either wrong or evil). He was suspicious of Greenie and voted for me only (it seemed) because I found her innocent, and today he comes here with lots of reasons for my being suspicious, one of them that I was happy to talk about the cobblers. Plus I agree with Shasta on his absolutes.
Nerwen. For pushing the idea of my being the cobbler without giving reasons before I asked, and suspecting me for something I always do.
Shasta. I disagree with him on the whole "who could the wolves have attacked?" thing, and I think it's more in a baddie's than an innocent's interests to make us waste our time on it.

INNOCENT
Greenie. I also disagree with her on the importance of discussing who the wolves might have targeted (for now), but apart from that nothing has changed.
wilwa. I find myself agreeing with her and she looks generally innocent.
Pitch. See wilwa.
Loslote. I seem to disagree with her on everybody, but now that she's posted more, she actually looks quite innocent.

EITHER
Eomer. In the process of perfecting the art of saying as little as possible in as many words as possible (but he's amusing).
Form. Lots of philosophical rambling about himself.
Inzil. I simply can't read him. I should probably take a look at him at some point if I have time.
Kath. Evil, if nothing else for saying everybody's happy if I'm lynched. See Inzil.
EW. My gut feeling is he's innocent - he posts way too little to my liking, but he doesn't remind me of the EW wolf I played with a while ago. I don't mind if he's lynched though.

I'd prefer to vote for Nog, Volo or sally (I suspect Nog the most, but Volo and sally are quieter), but I could also go for someone in my Either category (not Inzil though before I've had a look at him, and I don't want to vote for Nerwen or Shasta either).

[Pitchwife]

[IC]You folks all sound so dreadfully sober - have you all turned teatotallers or what? And with Barley's beer being the best on the East Road! Maybe a song will liven you up a bit...
*stands on table and sings to a well known, but barely recognizable tune*

There is an inn, a merry old inn,
with a hey dol derry dillo,
And there they brew a beer so brown
That the Man in the Moon himself came down
one night to drink his fill-o
And there he dozed and dreamed of ale,
the barmaid's bosom his pillow,
Till the landlord lifts his hand
Over snoring drunkards, broken mugs and beer-soaked ashtrays...

*looks sheepishly at the circle of serious, disapproving faces, mumbles something and climbs off the table to help himself to another pint*[/IC]

OK, to business. As for the cobblers, we've had this discussion any number of times, and the big problem is, as always, that it's not so easy to tell cobblerish evil from wolvish evil. TEW has a point that they would very likely prefer not to be lynched (or Night-killed*, for that matter) before they've had a chance to communicate, but then again, I think a good cobbler won't mind to be lynched in order to save who he thinks is a wolf, especially when there's two of them. On the wolves' side, we can't count on them being visibly protective of their packmates either - some will, others won't hesitate to bus one another, it really depends on the player. So the long and short of it is, if it looks suspicious, lynch it and we'll find out what it was.
(*Aside, does anybody else think that Boro included two cobblers in this game in order to increase the chance that at least one of them won't be eaten by the wolves?)

Now, Tom and the Barrow-Wight. I agree with Shasta and Nerwen that it'll be tricky to find the BW, so for the moment, leaving xem to Tom may be our best chance. If, however, we think we have a good idea who xe is, or if the Seer dreams xem and decides to reveal, I'm for getting rid of xem as soon as possible, rather than wait for Tom to get xem. According to the Rules, the stunning occurs at the beginning of the Night, so the BW can try to protect xemself by stunning Tom and work mischief for another Day; and unlike the Seer, Tom can't reveal - so if we're extremely unlucky, we might even mislynch Tom instead of the BW, and what then?

Another thing: I think at the beginning at least, while there's still three or two wolves, the BW is a bigger danger to us than to them: he can prevent our Seer and Ranger from helping us, but if he stuns a wolf, the rest will still get a Night-kill.
They'll want to get rid of him sooner or later, so that a lone wolf won't lose a kill by being stunned, but they'll probably want to keep him around for the first few Days (unless we get lucky and lynch some wolves rather soon). For this reason, I'm not at all comfortable with Lottie's suggestion to leave a suspected BW alive till next Day.

(x-ed with a lot)