Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Volo

Yet, the BW is probably more honest in xis accusations than either the Wolves or the Cobblers, as it would make more sense to stay away of being suspected as a Wolf. The BW's best chance is thus being honest at what xe says and siding with the village, since the Wolves aren't a threat to xim.

I agree with the first part - the BW doesn't know anyone's role, and since s/he wants everyone dead, s/he has no motive to protect anybody - except maybe if s/he thought somebody is useful for his/her purposes. The BW's number one priority during Day phase is to avoid getting lynched, and especially early on it makes no sense for him/her to choose sides. Therefore, I'm sorry to sound like a pessimist but I don't think catching the BW is, at this point, very possible unless by accident - and nor is the BW a considerable enough threat yet to distract us from the wolves.

If we want to discuss roles, I'd like to see more discussion on the cobblers and less on the BW, actually, since I'm highly doubtful we can catch the BW anytime soon. I was contemplating the cobbler issue just now, trying to make out how serious a threat they present. In the most fearsome scenario, Ferny finds out the identity of one or more wolves, and can relate the information to the other cobbler - and suddenly we have potentially as much as five baddies working together. It's also possible that Ferny never gets lucky and we have two more or less blind cobblers who can be just as mistaken about the identity of the wolves as the rest of us.

[Kath]

*waves*

Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!) and that if deadline is 11pm GMT then I should, bar any unforeseen circumstances, be here at deadline.

While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form. It's been way too long since I played with them.

[A Little Green]

Posting to say that I am aware we've started (thanks oh great mod!)

Kath, you impress me!

[Volo]

Hello, folks!

Still have not heard anything from about a third of our current population, so it's a bit too early to get all serious with conclusions based on tiny little hunches, but if anyone's around and not knowing what exactly to say, I'd like to ask the following: What has currently been fashionable to do with Day1s? Talk about the weather and then lynch anyone who's name starts with an M? (Which would be quite troublesome in the current game...)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Volo

Still have not heard anything from about a third of our current population, so it's a bit too early to get all serious with conclusions based on tiny little hunches

Nonsense! It's never too early!

What has currently been fashionable to do with Day1s?

I have been very much into talking about the cobbler(s) for the last year or two. General rule-talk is also popular. Basically it's just whatever you find worth saying.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Kath

While I'm away I request that no one tries to lynch Eomer or Form.

We should kill Kath before we regret it later.

Form too.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

My pessimist side is inclined to agree with Greenie... But it's the same with the BW as it is with wolves on day 1 - even though they haven't done anything, they have the knowledge that they're not allied with the rest of the village, and sometimes that knowledge shows in their posts.

Good point, though I have to disagree with a part of it. With the wolves, I think what potentially shows already on Day 1 is not so much their not being allied with the village, but the fact that they know almost everyone's alignment, and therefore every "opinion" they give is not genuine. The BW has no such knowledge, and will likely seem just like and ordo in that sense.

Originally Posted by Agan

That's highly unlikely, though... Even if Ferny can make himself known to one of the wolves, the wolf isn't probably going to list her fellows to him - for all she knows, the Ferny might in fact be a tricksy seer. Hmm it seems this game might be even more difficult to the baddies than it is for us.

I know it's unlikely. That is why I labelled it as "the most fearsome scenario" instead of "the likely scenario", you know. It was simply the worst possible scenario I could come up with when thinking about the cobbler business.


EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

With the wolves, I think what potentially shows already on Day 1 is not so much their not being allied with the village, but the fact that they know almost everyone's alignment, and therefore every "opinion" they give is not genuine.

Yeah that's true, but we have no way of knowing what's genuine and what isn't until we have more information, and even then there might be misguided innocents who look ah so guilty. Although I suppose my comment about the knowledge of not being innocent showing in the wolves' posts comes, in the end, down to the posts not looking genuine... So we seem to be talking about essentially the same thing, just from different points of view.
Anyway I still think it's possible to see the BW is hiding something, just like players might look different when they're playing a gifted.

I like Greenie for now. This is unusual because normally I always suspect her.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

We should kill Kath before we regret it later.

Form too.

*awaits Kath's response*

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Now that I think of it, there's actually a way we can know whom Tom chose... Only everybody should agree to it, otherwise it doesn't work.

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Everyone should say what they think of it, and if even one person thinks it isn't a good idea, we don't do it (who knows, that person might be Tom himself).

Although hmm there are also a few problems. Firstly, the BW might have stunned Tom. Secondly, it doesn't tell us anything about the person's allegiance, only that she isn't the BW. Still, I think it's worth discussing.

Too complicated, I think.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Yes, but if he spies on a wolf, he will want to let her know. Therefore we should make things as difficult for them as possible and not let weird communication between people (or comments that basically shout "Sir! Spy on me! Spy on me!") go unnoticed.

That is something: there's certainly liable to be some kind of signalling among the baddies– they've got a lot to gain by it this game. That doesn't mean it'll be anything so obvious, of course.

EDIT:X'd with Agan.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

I'd still wonder how we're to single out wightish behavior. The BW will have an interest in lying low and not attracting attention. And not being tied to a particular side will make it that much easier to do that.

Overall, I'd agree with those who say the BW should not be the first priority here. But as I said, if xe's outed by a Seer dream and we don't have a better choice, go for the lynch. Otherwise, leave it to Tom.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'd still wonder how we're to single out wightish behavior. The BW will have an interest in lying low and not attracting attention. And not being tied to a particular side will make it that much easier to do that.

Overall, I'd agree with those who say the BW should not be the first priority here. But as I said, if xe's outed by a Seer dream and we don't have a better choice, go for the lynch. Otherwise, leave it to Tom.

The real question is, how do we get rid of Tom? Apparently he's one of the "evils" too:

Originally Posted by The Rules

The innocents win if they eliminate all evils from their town (wolves and Barrow-wight) - this includes Tom Bombadil.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Volo

Even though the BW isn't too harmful now, and can even be really useful later on, it is in our nature to banish all evil, be it harmful or not.

I agree with this. If the Barrow-Wight isn't on our side, she's (potentially) against us, and I'd much rather we didn't have to worry about her in the later stages when it really matters whether she plays for us or for the wolves.

As for speculating on whether a wolf might try to pretend to be the BW, why not? If there's a consensus we're not going to lynch someone just because they look like the BW, it'll be more than convenient for a wolf to do exactly that. Wolves have pretended to be cobblers if the village has thought finding the cobbler isn't important.
However, impersonating the BW is almost equal to trying to look like an ordo which is what wolves do, anyway...

Originally Posted by Volo

since the Wolves aren't a threat to xim.

Ah but what happens if the wolves attack the BW? They will know who she is and should they choose so, they can join forces. Of course it's highly risky assuming the BW decides she has better chances if she plays for the village, but still... That's the ultimate worst-case scenario: three wolves, two cobblers and the BW all playing together.

For the record, I'm most likely not going to vote for Form or Volo today because it's ages since I played with them.

edit: xed with Nerwen & Zil. I read it the same way as Zil, although it did give me a moment's what the heck pause when I first read it.

[Aganzir]

GUILTY
sally. I read her post and was like, "What. The. Heck?" As I said, she basically repeats what has been said about me, and votes for me because "I can see an evil her doing what she did." She has played with me enough times to know me better. Also, she claims I only want to get rid of the BW. That's utter nonsense - my opinion is that we shouldn't ignore her, it's not the same as making lynching her our primary goal.
Glirdan. Seems kind of easy-going. I don't know what to think of his being the only one to like my BW voting plan (in hindsight I agree it'd probably be too confusing); when most people seem to say it's problematic, it would probably make sense for a baddie to try to back it up. And I agree with Greenie on random votes.
Volo. I still don't understand why he thinks the BW could reveal stuff about gifteds if threatened with a lynch. I'm probably not the right person to say anything about this, but I'm also a bit worried about how much he seems to concentrate on the BW. Also, he only suspects Greenie but votes for me (when I already have a vote).

INNOCENT
Greenie. I mostly agree with her and she looks normal (as opposed to a statue, I mean, forced - sorry ).
Pitch. Makes more sense than most others (especially his points about the BW are good) and looks innocentish.
wilwa. I thought her initial reaction to my BW suggestions was really suspicious, but then she brought up the possibility of the stunned having died in the night. Now she looks more innocent than guilty.
EW. Hasn't said enough for me to form a solid opinion, but seems more innocent than guilty.

EITHER
Inzil. I like that he pointed out that a cobbler shouldn't be ignored - but then again, that seems to be the modus operandi after last game. Apart from that, I don't have anything about him.
Lottie. I don't really like her insistence that we shouldn't try to lynch the BW. Pitch has a good point against her, but I haven't seen enough from her (apart from BW talk) to have a real opinion.
Nog. Misunderstands me so badly I'm half tempted to think it's intentional... but then, Nog and I have a history of disagreeing. His main points against me are based on the said misunderstanding, and the rest of his points look exaggerated as if he was just trying to put me in a bad light. However, I'll abstain from further comments till he's back and has explained himself.

The rest haven't said enough for me to form a solid opinion on them. However I'm going to kill Eomer if I end up being lynched.

[Aganzir]

GUILTY
Nogrod. I'm really torn about him. It seems he's being all crazy only when he's talking with/about me - his "how about we lynch a submarine?" suggestion was good, and I find myself agreeing with his post #98 - but then he keeps misunderstanding me and continues his ridiculous cobbler campaign. Plus what Shasta & Nerwen mentioned about the holes in his argument.
sally. I dislike her vote for me yesterday ("Agan could do this as a baddie, ergo she is a baddie"), she just agreed on what others (mostly Volo) had said about me. Plus, I find this comment off:

Originally Posted by sally

Seems like there'll be a wagon banding together. Hope it's a good one!

It might be just me, but I'd think an innocent reaction to a day 1 bandwagon would be "Eep, I hope it's not a catastrophe," but sally seems like she doesn't care.
Volo. Again, I'm suspicious of him because he suspects me (but when you're innocent, you know everyone who attacks you is either wrong or evil). He was suspicious of Greenie and voted for me only (it seemed) because I found her innocent, and today he comes here with lots of reasons for my being suspicious, one of them that I was happy to talk about the cobblers. Plus I agree with Shasta on his absolutes.
Nerwen. For pushing the idea of my being the cobbler without giving reasons before I asked, and suspecting me for something I always do.
Shasta. I disagree with him on the whole "who could the wolves have attacked?" thing, and I think it's more in a baddie's than an innocent's interests to make us waste our time on it.

INNOCENT
Greenie. I also disagree with her on the importance of discussing who the wolves might have targeted (for now), but apart from that nothing has changed.
wilwa. I find myself agreeing with her and she looks generally innocent.
Pitch. See wilwa.
Loslote. I seem to disagree with her on everybody, but now that she's posted more, she actually looks quite innocent.

EITHER
Eomer. In the process of perfecting the art of saying as little as possible in as many words as possible (but he's amusing).
Form. Lots of philosophical rambling about himself.
Inzil. I simply can't read him. I should probably take a look at him at some point if I have time.
Kath. Evil, if nothing else for saying everybody's happy if I'm lynched. See Inzil.
EW. My gut feeling is he's innocent - he posts way too little to my liking, but he doesn't remind me of the EW wolf I played with a while ago. I don't mind if he's lynched though.

I'd prefer to vote for Nog, Volo or sally (I suspect Nog the most, but Volo and sally are quieter), but I could also go for someone in my Either category (not Inzil though before I've had a look at him, and I don't want to vote for Nerwen or Shasta either).

[Pitchwife]

[IC]You folks all sound so dreadfully sober - have you all turned teatotallers or what? And with Barley's beer being the best on the East Road! Maybe a song will liven you up a bit...
*stands on table and sings to a well known, but barely recognizable tune*

There is an inn, a merry old inn,
with a hey dol derry dillo,
And there they brew a beer so brown
That the Man in the Moon himself came down
one night to drink his fill-o
And there he dozed and dreamed of ale,
the barmaid's bosom his pillow,
Till the landlord lifts his hand
Over snoring drunkards, broken mugs and beer-soaked ashtrays...

*looks sheepishly at the circle of serious, disapproving faces, mumbles something and climbs off the table to help himself to another pint*[/IC]

OK, to business. As for the cobblers, we've had this discussion any number of times, and the big problem is, as always, that it's not so easy to tell cobblerish evil from wolvish evil. TEW has a point that they would very likely prefer not to be lynched (or Night-killed*, for that matter) before they've had a chance to communicate, but then again, I think a good cobbler won't mind to be lynched in order to save who he thinks is a wolf, especially when there's two of them. On the wolves' side, we can't count on them being visibly protective of their packmates either - some will, others won't hesitate to bus one another, it really depends on the player. So the long and short of it is, if it looks suspicious, lynch it and we'll find out what it was.
(*Aside, does anybody else think that Boro included two cobblers in this game in order to increase the chance that at least one of them won't be eaten by the wolves?)

Now, Tom and the Barrow-Wight. I agree with Shasta and Nerwen that it'll be tricky to find the BW, so for the moment, leaving xem to Tom may be our best chance. If, however, we think we have a good idea who xe is, or if the Seer dreams xem and decides to reveal, I'm for getting rid of xem as soon as possible, rather than wait for Tom to get xem. According to the Rules, the stunning occurs at the beginning of the Night, so the BW can try to protect xemself by stunning Tom and work mischief for another Day; and unlike the Seer, Tom can't reveal - so if we're extremely unlucky, we might even mislynch Tom instead of the BW, and what then?

Another thing: I think at the beginning at least, while there's still three or two wolves, the BW is a bigger danger to us than to them: he can prevent our Seer and Ranger from helping us, but if he stuns a wolf, the rest will still get a Night-kill.
They'll want to get rid of him sooner or later, so that a lone wolf won't lose a kill by being stunned, but they'll probably want to keep him around for the first few Days (unless we get lucky and lynch some wolves rather soon). For this reason, I'm not at all comfortable with Lottie's suggestion to leave a suspected BW alive till next Day.

(x-ed with a lot)

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Shall we go ahead and have it out now that suspected Cobblers should be lynched in the absence of lupine targets?

*likes this plan*

Originally Posted by Loslote

But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.

Sounds reasonable, but what do we really learn from it? If half the village said, "I think Lottie is the Barrow-Wight and Bombadil should try to drive her out tonight!" and you were still alive the following day, how can we tell Bombadil chose you and not someone else? We'd still keep arguing about whether you're the BW or not.

The BW can afford to be opportunistic and side with whomever she thinks benefits her the most. However, she can do much more damage to us than to the evil side - blocking the seer or the ranger is more serious for us than excluding a wolf from communication with her pack or stopping Ferny from spying is for them. Therefore I suggest that the one she stunned for the night says it out loud in the thread the next day, just to narrow down the field of possible BWs and make things easier for Tom/us.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Bill Ferny would probably be more cautious than Harry Goatleaf because Mr. Ferny can spy on the other players, thus giving him an incentive to stay alive to learn the identities of as many wolves as possible.

Yes, but if he spies on a wolf, he will want to let her know. Therefore we should make things as difficult for them as possible and not let weird communication between people (or comments that basically shout "Sir! Spy on me! Spy on me!") go unnoticed.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

But then that begs the question "what if the wolves act like the BW" which opens up an entirely new can of worms.

That's a good point. We can of course hope that the BW can spot impersonating attempts and, in her pride, stuns the person in question as a punishment.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

especially early on it makes no sense for him/her to choose sides. Therefore, I'm sorry to sound like a pessimist but I don't think catching the BW is, at this point, very possible unless by accident - and nor is the BW a considerable enough threat yet to distract us from the wolves.

My pessimist side is inclined to agree with Greenie... But it's the same with the BW as it is with wolves on day 1 - even though they haven't done anything, they have the knowledge that they're not allied with the rest of the village, and sometimes that knowledge shows in their posts. I have no reason not to believe we can't catch the BW, but yes the wolves & cobblers should still be our priority.

Originally Posted by Greenie

If we want to discuss roles, I'd like to see more discussion on the cobblers

I like this game! Everyone wants to talk about the cobblers!

Originally Posted by Greenie

and suddenly we have potentially as much as five baddies working together.

That's highly unlikely, though... Even if Ferny can make himself known to one of the wolves, the wolf isn't probably going to list her fellows to him - for all she knows, the Ferny might in fact be a tricksy seer. Hmm it seems this game might be even more difficult to the baddies than it is for us.
But yes I agree with Greenie that the risk of getting a big baddie team is pretty high, and that's why we definitely shouldn't ignore the cobblers either. They are at their most dangerous when they have a way to find/contact the wolves.

As for Butterbur, the longer he stays alive the better. Of course his death is good for us even early in the game, but the wolves' missing a kill means much more later on when there are fewer people alive.

[Volo]

Thanks for the answer, Agan.

[Aganzir]

Now that I think of it, there's actually a way we can know whom Tom chose... Only everybody should agree to it, otherwise it doesn't work.

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Everyone should say what they think of it, and if even one person thinks it isn't a good idea, we don't do it (who knows, that person might be Tom himself).

Although hmm there are also a few problems. Firstly, the BW might have stunned Tom. Secondly, it doesn't tell us anything about the person's allegiance, only that she isn't the BW. Still, I think it's worth discussing.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Loslote

Suspected cobblers, yes. But I think we should wait a Day to let TB have a go at him overNight. That way, we have an extra lynch, and if xe is TBW, we have a freebie baddie gone.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Regarding TBW, who I can't say I'm surprised to find the talk of the Day: yes, it's not that important to get him at this stage.

Thing is, though, what do we all suppose to be the distinguishing features of Wightish evil, as opposed to the wolvish or cobblerish kind? Do we really think we could feel confident enough that a given player was displaying the first kind, rather than the second or third?

I agree with both of these. If we somehow figure out who the BW might be we should leave it to Tom, that is his purpose and then we won't lose the lynch. But the problem is figuring out who the BW is in the first place. See other roles we can figure out, Gifteds might leave hints to the village, Cobblers will leave hints for the wolves, Wolves will have connections to each other or just do things that seem ungenuine, there are ways to figure out who they are. But the BW isn't connected to anyone, and they don't have to leave hints for anybody, so essentially they will act the same way as an Ordo, they want all the Wolves dead anyway (though they also want all of us dead too eventually). They are almost completely unbiased so they will be hard to spot. Which leads me to this:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Therefore I suggest that the one she stunned for the night says it out loud in the thread the next day, just to narrow down the field of possible BWs and make things easier for Tom/us.

Bad idea. First of all if he chooses an Ordo they won't know they were chosen since they don't have to do anything at Night, and basically if he chose a Gifted that's a Gifted revealing themselves (the Wolves will know they aren't one of them so they either have to be Ferny, Tom or one of the Gifteds). And a Wolf is unlikely to step forward and say it was them, that's too much attention on them.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Now that I think of it, there's actually a way we can know whom Tom chose... Only everybody should agree to it, otherwise it doesn't work.

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Everyone should say what they think of it, and if even one person thinks it isn't a good idea, we don't do it (who knows, that person might be Tom himself).

Although hmm there are also a few problems. Firstly, the BW might have stunned Tom. Secondly, it doesn't tell us anything about the person's allegiance, only that she isn't the BW. Still, I think it's worth discussing.

I don't think this is a good idea either. I think we'll just end up wasting a bunch of time trying to find the BW when we should be focusing on the Wolves, and having to do a second set of votes will cause a lot of confusion. I think we should trust Tom with this, and even if we know that someone isn't the BW there are still alot of things they could be, so it really isn't worth taking so much time focusing on him.

So basically I think we should forget about him for the moment, if the Seer comes forward and know who he is then we should give Tom a chance to go for him so we don't waste a lynch, if Tom is dead or something then we definitely go after him, but until then it'll be really hard to figure out who the BW is, and we could end up wasting a lot of time on him (when the Wolves, and Cobblers even, are a bigger threat).

Now the Cobblers. Ferny has his special little power (did he get a spy last Night?) and will want to leave hints of some sort so that the Wolves don't kill him, and Goatleaf will want to leave hints so that the Wolves don't kill him and so that Ferny can find him. So if they get too obvious we might be able to spot them. And I think after the way the last game went it's agreed that if we have an idea who a Cobbler is, we lynch them, none of this let them be stuff. Oh, and no ordo should false reveal as a Gifted...just saying.

x'ed with a bunch