Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Volo]

Several comments yesterDay were based on misunderstandings, I hadn't expressed myself clearly enough. I'll open up on this later if I have the chance.

When going Day1 through in my head yesterday, I had a feeling that Nogrod was a Wolf. He seems to be more stressed and high strung in this game than in the games I played with him before. This might be due to completely unrelated reasons, but it feels as if he doesn't have a chance to relax from the game, i.e. he's also playing actively during the Nights. His first post toDay doesn't argue against this feeling. I would have thought him to post more than one things before going to sleep were he not active before the post as well.
Then again, he has not tried to hide his tenseness. A Wolf Nog I'd believe would choose his words better and read others' comments more closely, instead of being so aggressive.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

What I think of Volo? Well, he might be a total nut-head baddie trying to go with the "then going flow" - or then he is an ordo who thought I was the seer.

Hard to say, which one.

Seriously...

I doubt he is the BW. Even though, like Shasta pointed out - with partly faulty arguments, in my opinion - the Wolves might have thought Nog the Seer, on Night2 it is more likely for Wolves to pick out a target that leaves fewer traces. And there are plenty of such players around here now. Another argument against trying to kill Nog on Night2 is that it can be regarded unsporty. It's not a very strong argument, but it has been used.


I still find Aganzir suspicious. I don't know how much she has been talking about Cobblers in the recent games, but she seemed to react so happily to the notion that people should discuss Cobblers that it seemed, she was happy about it, because it would mean people would talk about her. And knowing Agan, that would certainly entertain her.
Also, what Nog mentioned yesterDay and which I mainly based my vote upon, is that she did put out an unlikely strategy proposition which would require a lot of discussion, both whether to accept the strategy, and after it has been accepted. I'm refering to the open vote for who should TB go after next Night. It would move away attention from the Dayly lynch-vote, which is, much more important. Aganzir, I see as too sensible to put up such a strategy unless doing so on purpose. And she definitely is bold enough to actively try moving the conversation into a foggy direction.


Shasta seems quite Innocent in his posts. The way he writes feels more genuine than when he was a Wolf. It may be due to the fact that he hasn't had the time to inspect the thread and formulate answers, but in any case, it feels less calculative than what he wrote as a Wolf.

[Formendacil]

So... I have this mysterious sense of deja vu as I write this... I seem to recall having a no-Nightkill-Day-2 before, with the depressing sense that it's almost Day 1 replayed.

It isn't, of course, since we have the vote record from yesterday. However, it lacks the other-sided corroboration provided by a Night Kill (grotesque as that corroboration might be). Obviously, this situation is different than whichever one sticks in my mind, insofar as it is because the BW is in play--in this case, the wolves were foiled not by the Ranger, but by someone whom they can tactfully leave alone to confuse the villagers--and the Gifteds--or towards whom they can help orchestrate a lynch. I feel like this will reveal a lot of information later, but is going to be of limited assistance right now.

I'm pretty much around until the deadline, but I'll be in and out as my interest and other goings-on dictate. I'm *supposed* to be doing homework readings all day...

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

My light, I see your point - if Agan is a wolf, she'd know that Nog couldn't be the Seer. However, the theory I was following was that the wolves attacked Nog because he was sure that Agan was a cobbler. The point I made about Agan (and Pitch and Greenie and Wilwa) was just an aside that popped into my head as I perused Nog's post. I think my theory still stands, though, doesn't it?

Anyway, I should move on to Assumption 2 - that the wolves attacked someone who would leave no trace (not an uncommon first night kill for wolves in this day and age). I'll look in on that once I've had a shower, but for a start, the names that come to mind off the top of my head are Eomer, Sally, Kath, and Form.

Regarding your first 'Assumption', I don't know why you seem to think that Nog is the only possible person that could have looked Seerish, but honestly I'm weary of pursuing the idea that Seer hints were the reason for their kill, because in trying to figure out who looked Seerish yesterDay, we could draw attention to the actual Seer. So I say we leave that one be.

So we could look at possible trailless kills, but Lottie has a point, this is a good lead but we still don't have a lot of information and if we start making all these assumptions we could get very side tracked with this BW business instead of looking for the wolves. And I don't see how figuring out who the kill was could possibly lead us to the wolves (maybe we could go the other way, when we know who a wolf is we could come back and then try to figure out the kill), so I say we let it be, put it on the list of info we have about the BW, and wait til we have more pieces. Going on about this could be a terrible waste of time, and if we follow the Seer hint track we could uncover the real one, which is bad. Tom could always look more closely at all that and maybe figure out some suspects (any unlikely kill choices are unlikely to be the BW, that's a great way to narrow down), and maybe he'll get lucky.

edit: x'd with Form

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Volo

When going Day1 through in my head yesterday, I had a feeling that Nogrod was a Wolf. He seems to be more stressed and high strung in this game than in the games I played with him before. This might be due to completely unrelated reasons, but it feels as if he doesn't have a chance to relax from the game, i.e. he's also playing actively during the Nights. His first post toDay doesn't argue against this feeling. I would have thought him to post more than one things before going to sleep were he not active before the post as well.
Then again, he has not tried to hide his tenseness. A Wolf Nog I'd believe would choose his words better and read others' comments more closely, instead of being so aggressive.

The problem is that you didn't seem to find him all that suspicious yesterDay. In fact, you appeared to use his reasoning as a means of rationalising a vote for Agan.

Originally Posted by Volo yesterDay

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

If you were thinking Nog to be a wolf, why vote for someone he was casting suspicion on?

Originally Posted by Volo

I doubt he is the BW. Even though, like Shasta pointed out - with partly faulty arguments, in my opinion - the Wolves might have thought Nog the Seer, on Night2 it is more likely for Wolves to pick out a target that leaves fewer traces. And there are plenty of such players around here now. Another argument against trying to kill Nog on Night2 is that it can be regarded unsporty. It's not a very strong argument, but it has been used.

Oh, I think potential Seers are a priority for wolves, certainly. But Shasta zeroing in on Nog the way he did to the apparent exclusion of all else is what struck me.

Originally Posted by Volo

I still find Aganzir suspicious. I don't know how much she has been talking about Cobblers in the recent games, but she seemed to react so happily to the notion that people should discuss Cobblers that it seemed, she was happy about it, because it would mean people would talk about her. And knowing Agan, that would certainly entertain her.

Talking about Cobblers is not in itself an unusual act for Agan.