Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Too many issues with this. Also, the BW is a she, are they? Good to know.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Ah but what happens if the wolves attack the BW? They will know who she is and should they choose so, they can join forces. Of course it's highly risky assuming the BW decides she has better chances if she plays for the village, but still... That's the ultimate worst-case scenario: three wolves, two cobblers and the BW all playing together.

Problems.

1. How will the BW know who the wolves are?
2. Why would they side with the wolves? If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW, because they'll know who is not one of them. That just doesn't work.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

How can you people make such long posts already? It's qwight ridiculous. I can't think of any interesting points on rules and theory; all I can think about is lynching Kath. XP

This doesn't surprise me. Also, I't like to point out the "qwight" there. Because I can, basically, and because I fancy it.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

P.S. Eomer, dear, you can't kill BOTH Kath and me--not in the course of one day, anyway. How about you flip a coin for us--I'll be Heads.

He can if he's a wolf. Just sayin'.

Originally Posted by Volo

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

I concur. It would be very like Agan to distract the village with a secondary plan of killing the BW in order to lessen the pressure on the wolves. I could totally see it.

I've not looked hard enough at Greenie (not really at all, in fact) to say anything either way. I'll hope to look at her toMorrow and see what I think of the post.


Okay, kids, I will NOT be back after this post, period. Too many errands to run after work and possibly lots of work to do this afternoon anyway. Thus, a vote.

++Agan

There's a chance her BW plan is actually innocent, but I don't think she would be thinking so far ahead as an ordo, and as a gifted (the seer at least) she would likely rather keep her head down and worry about finding the BW and exposing them herself. Thus, I don't think it's necessarily a completely evil scheme, but I think she wants to get rid of another opponent right off the bat, and since the BW doesn't pose much of a threat to the village right now, that leaves her as evil.

And now I have to go. Sorry for the lack of me. I'm trusting our beloved Boro to text me the lynch result, as I quite want to know what you get up to while I'm gone. Until toMorrow, comrades!


EDIT: x'd since Agan's last, and thus with Volo's vote. Seems like there'll be a wagon banding together. Hope it's a good one!

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

There's a chance her BW plan is actually innocent, but I don't think she would be thinking so far ahead as an ordo

What BW plan? As far as I know, I had two.

Not that it's probably going to make much of a difference to you, but I thought of the first one (revealing you've been stunned) before I got my role. Too bad I didn't apparently think it through, but there you have it.

1. How will the BW know who the wolves are?
2. Why would they side with the wolves? If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW, because they'll know who is not one of them. That just doesn't work.

1. If they're skillful, they have a way of letting her know. Something being unlikely or difficult doesn't make it impossible.
2. I might have misunderstood something, but I don't see why they couldn't win together. If the BW could only win with the village, why isn't she officially on our side?

I really don't like sally's vote and her reasons behind it. It's basically just repeating what others have said, and it doesn't even make sense.

[Inziladun]

At work and about to leave the office for a bit, but a few thoughts first.

The growing bandwagon against Agan makes me uneasy. I wasn't much impressed with her plan to "vote" for the BW, but she herself didn't seem to push it that hard. More like just sounding out ideas. Now, I know she's a joyfully effective Cobbler , but it seems funny how so many jumped on after Eomer gave her the first vote (which was not well reasoned at all).

Volo hasn't played in a long time, so it would feel somewhat unsporting to vote for him on Day 1. However, he looks rather shifty to me at this point.

Originally Posted by Volo

Contrary to Agan's idea of having a common vote for BW extermination, sponsored by TB, I think it will be more sensible to not to anger BW at Day. If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted.

No mention there of thinking Agan is suspicious because of the plan, just a disagreement with it.

Eomer voted Agan, then Nog came out saying his "Cobblerometer (TM) flashes red and is overheating with Aganzir."

Originally Posted by Volo

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

So, Volo picks up the suspicion on Agan, though he also says he didn't like Greenie painting the "worst-case scenario".

Then:

Originally Posted by Volo

An hour of silence. What a bore. Would have said something myself, but having gone through the thread a few times in a non-cronological order, I have come to few new thoughts, most of which are better left unsaid.

If nothing happens in the next ten minutes I'll have to vote (both me and computer falling asleep), and the vote will be for Agan.

And a vote for Agan, followed by Sally doing the same thing.

No sir, I don't like it.

x/d with the previous four

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Just in general, then - I'm *gasp* ok with Nogrod

Now that's abnormal - and you don't mind the holes in his arguments against Agan's plans which she, me and yourself have pointed out? (note that I do disagree with her plans, I only think they've got enough faults without construing ones that aren't there)
[QUOTE=Greenie]and got a vague bad feeling about Pitch's first post. Checked back and it's mostly just a feeling, accompanied maybe by this:

Don't know, there's something in the way he seems to have given much thought to how the BW situation looks from a wolf's point of view.

*sigh*It's just my way - I like to think things through, regardless of my role, and when I'm innocent, I try to put myself in the wolves' fur and imagine how they would react to a given situation in order to better figure them out. But I do the same when I'm a wolf, and sally once pinned a Pitchwolf based on that, so I see where you're coming from.

Originally Posted by sally

If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW

They can't (see the rules). They can only try to get xem lynched.

Originally Posted by sally re Eomer

This doesn't surprise me. Also, I't like to point out the "qwight" there. Because I can, basically, and because I fancy it.

Yeah, he's been making a lot of these puns ('barrowing' for borrowing, etc.). But he enjoys confusing us, and he won't start making sense before Day 2 at the earliest.

I don't really know what to think this incipient Agan bandwagon. Again, it's not impossible that she's a cobbler or a cobblerish-acting wolf (definitely not the BW though, she's been giving far too much thought to how to exterminate xem), but it's far from conclusive in my eyes. OK, this is Day 1 and all that, but I'd still like better evidence.

(x-ed from #70 down)

[A Little Green]

Since I'm really taking after my dad and apparently unable to stop refreshing the page and go to bed, I can answer this:

Originally Posted by Pitch

Now that's abnormal - and you don't mind the holes in his arguments against Agan's plans which she, me and yourself have pointed out? (note that I do disagree with her plans, I only think they've got enough faults without construing ones that aren't there)

Oh yes, those arguments were flawed - but what people often forget is that "making sense" doesn't equal innocent nor "flawed arguments" wolf. Nog's posting just didn't look wolvish to me because it wasn't one bit careful or calculated. And in addition to that, my empirical research shows that a Nog I disagree with (like this one) is most often an innocent one. (I have a history of always suspecting him and he always turns out innocent - and the once I didn't suspect him because he seemed to make so much sense and be so nice was when he turned out to be a wolf.)


EDIT: x-ed with Nog and honorary Boromod