Werewolf LXXXIII: The Nightmare on the East Road

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

++ AGANZIR

[Boromir88]

Bolding votes is all that is required Eomer, not highlighting. But if you've already departed, as it is it'll count.

[wilwarin538]

One more question for the ModGod about the Barrow Wight.

Since he needs to be the last one standing, I'm just trying to figure out how that's possible. Like if he's left standing with a wolf and an ordo, and then they lynch the wolf, well it would be the BW and an ordo left and that's not him being the last standing, so does he win along with the village? Or if the ordo is lynched than it's the BW and the wolf left standing, so that's not him winning either, so how can he be alone at the end? Unless he just has to survive the whole game?

Originally Posted by Agan

Ah but they will. The ordo gets a PM that says she was stunned (see the rules). That's why telling it to the rest of us does no more than eliminate a potential BW, thus making it easier for Tom & us to find her.

I missed that. Still though, it would be very hard to be sure the person is even telling the truth, and what if the person he blocked is the one that gets night killed? Then the BW could just say he was the one who was blocked, no one would be around to refute it, and then Tom would never go for him. It just sounds like so many things could go crazy here.

x'ed with Noggins

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by wilwa

It just sounds like so many things could go crazy here.

Exactly. A wolf claiming she was stunned - should we think she is innocent? A cobbler claiming she was stunned - what does it tell us? A gifted telling she was stunned (trying to act like an ordo) - do we believe her, do the wolves wish to check her? A non-stunned innocent trying to save the Day says she was stunned - what do we learn from there? And what is the one who then possibly counter-reveals? Not to talk of the different settings those "revelations" and their counters would happen, giving new twists to them...

I mean there are so many scenarios my brain hurts already just thinking what they might be...

[Volo]

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

[Glirdan]

I'm sorry guys, I can't stay up any longer. I'm exhausted and need sleep as I have to work again later tonight. I shouldn't be this bad for Day 2.

As for my vote...

++Wilwa

Because I can. Seriously. Just completely random.

Good night.

[Volo]

An hour of silence. What a bore. Would have said something myself, but having gone through the thread a few times in a non-cronological order, I have come to few new thoughts, most of which are better left unsaid.

If nothing happens in the next ten minutes I'll have to vote (both me and computer falling asleep), and the vote will be for Agan.

[A Little Green]

Right, I'm back. I'll be here for some time, but will (hopefully) make it to bed before DL - loads to do tomorrow.

First of all, I really don't like the votes this far. Day 1, for sure, but these two are ill-reasoned even for Day 1 votes. Eomer votes Agan with

Originally Posted by Eomer

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

Which strikes me as not serious - that sounds as if he wasn't even trying to get it right. The same goes, even to a fuller extent, for Glirdan, whose reason is as follows:

Originally Posted by Glirdy

Because I can. Seriously. Just completely random.

Seriously, guys, we can do better than that! Or should we adopt a strategy where everyone just votes randomly because it's Day 1 and nothing matters anyway? I'm not convinced Eomer and/or Glirdan are evil (not that I'm convinced of anything at this point), but a random vote on Day 1 is among the easiest things a baddie can do - a vote that can't really be called into question because it can be covered with "Hey, it was Day 1!"

Just in general, then - I'm *gasp* ok with Nogrod and got a vague bad feeling about Pitch's first post. Checked back and it's mostly just a feeling, accompanied maybe by this:

Another thing: I think at the beginning at least, while there's still three or two wolves, the BW is a bigger danger to us than to them: he can prevent our Seer and Ranger from helping us, but if he stuns a wolf, the rest will still get a Night-kill.
They'll want to get rid of him sooner or later, so that a lone wolf won't lose a kill by being stunned, but they'll probably want to keep him around for the first few Days (unless we get lucky and lynch some wolves rather soon). For this reason, I'm not at all comfortable with Lottie's suggestion to leave a suspected BW alive till next Day.

Don't know, there's something in the way he seems to have given much thought to how the BW situation looks from a wolf's point of view.

Originally Posted by Volo

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious.

Mischievous? It certainly wasn't meant to. I was trying to make sense to myself of how big a threat the cobblers represent, and thought to myself, "What is the worst that could happen?" as well as "What is the best that could happen?" - and from these to get something of an idea of the potential damage the cobblers can do. (Of course the real extreme good scenario would involve wolves killing both cobblers on Nights 2 and 3, but that seemed a bit too unlikely even to me..)


EDIT: x-ed with Vollo

[Volo]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Mischievous

Thanks for the correction.

I got a nastyish vibe from Pitchwife's first post's beginning, but later he felt Ok, Ok, Ok.

:/

Sorry, darling, I would have liked to hear more of your voice before
++Aganzir

Correction: I did hear your voice, and would have liked to think this over, but can't. Won't. vote. randomly. So. die. please.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

what exactly do two you mean with "the BW can even be really useful later on" (to whom?) and "whether she plays for us or for the wolves"?

I can't naturally speak for Volo, but I see the BW as a possible extra cobbler. Maybe it's too rash of me to think she'd choose sides before the result of the game is certain, but she can a) try to stun a wolf, or b) try to stun an innocent. Or she might just have fun and stun whomever she wants, in which case she just brings more chaos into a game with already two cobblers.

Originally Posted by Volo

If BW is in danger of being lynched, xe will most likely start revealing things in favour of the Wolves, such as xis mildly educated hunches about the identities of the Gifted.

Where did that come from? I find it unlikely the BW can get any more information than the rest of us just from her stunning.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Oh well, have to leave now. I'll vote Aganzir simply due to the fact that she's posted so much when there's nothing to talk about yet. Trying to muddy the waters, obviously. Guilty as sin.

Eomer you're stupid! :-p

Originally Posted by Nogrod

My Cobblerometer (TM) flashes red and is overheating with Aganzir.

Awww Nog! This is so nostalgic. You never like anything I say, do you?

the seer and the ranger should reveal? --- but on the other it would also tell TBW that she didn't get it right.

What are you talking about? I fail to see how telling they were stunned would reveal the seer and the ranger. And who exactly is the BW supposed to be looking for? Revealing you've been stunned doesn't prove your innocence, it only proves you're not the BW. Also, I can't see why anybody would bother to claim falsely they were stunned - if more than one said it, fine, we'd know there was something rotten going on.
However, wilwa brought up a good point:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

what if the person he blocked is the one that gets night killed?

I hadn't even thought of it. It basically undermines my point, so yeah.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

A wolf claiming she was stunned - should we think she is innocent? A cobbler claiming she was stunned - what does it tell us? A gifted telling she was stunned (trying to act like an ordo) - do we believe her, do the wolves wish to check her?

Nog have you (or I) misunderstood something or are we just on a totally different wavelength? Because I have no idea what you're talking about. Everybody can be stunned but the BW (although hmm I can't remember it being said anywhere that she can't stun herself).

Originally Posted by Volo

Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality.

That's because it is abnormal.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

At the moment Tom works alone, but it need not be so. We the village could decide by vote whom Tom tries to drive away. If the one who got the most votes (or, in case of a tie, reached the biggest number first/last) is still alive the next day, we know she isn't the BW.

Too many issues with this. Also, the BW is a she, are they? Good to know.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Ah but what happens if the wolves attack the BW? They will know who she is and should they choose so, they can join forces. Of course it's highly risky assuming the BW decides she has better chances if she plays for the village, but still... That's the ultimate worst-case scenario: three wolves, two cobblers and the BW all playing together.

Problems.

1. How will the BW know who the wolves are?
2. Why would they side with the wolves? If the wolves win, they'll gang up and kill the BW, because they'll know who is not one of them. That just doesn't work.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

How can you people make such long posts already? It's qwight ridiculous. I can't think of any interesting points on rules and theory; all I can think about is lynching Kath. XP

This doesn't surprise me. Also, I't like to point out the "qwight" there. Because I can, basically, and because I fancy it.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

P.S. Eomer, dear, you can't kill BOTH Kath and me--not in the course of one day, anyway. How about you flip a coin for us--I'll be Heads.

He can if he's a wolf. Just sayin'.

Originally Posted by Volo

Noggie doesn't bother with pleasantries and joins the Day with quite harsh words indeed. I sort of agree with his point, an evil Agan could very well be so bold as to mislead the discussion with something like that. But let's not get too jumpy yet.

I myself got the bad vibe from Greenie. Her painting of the worst-case scenario felt somewhat... mischevious. Additionally Agan liking Greenie instead of finding her suspicious points to an abnormality. This is just a hunch and I'll add that I've found Greenie suspicious all the time after her first game in which she was Wolf. But what do you think?

I concur. It would be very like Agan to distract the village with a secondary plan of killing the BW in order to lessen the pressure on the wolves. I could totally see it.

I've not looked hard enough at Greenie (not really at all, in fact) to say anything either way. I'll hope to look at her toMorrow and see what I think of the post.


Okay, kids, I will NOT be back after this post, period. Too many errands to run after work and possibly lots of work to do this afternoon anyway. Thus, a vote.

++Agan

There's a chance her BW plan is actually innocent, but I don't think she would be thinking so far ahead as an ordo, and as a gifted (the seer at least) she would likely rather keep her head down and worry about finding the BW and exposing them herself. Thus, I don't think it's necessarily a completely evil scheme, but I think she wants to get rid of another opponent right off the bat, and since the BW doesn't pose much of a threat to the village right now, that leaves her as evil.

And now I have to go. Sorry for the lack of me. I'm trusting our beloved Boro to text me the lynch result, as I quite want to know what you get up to while I'm gone. Until toMorrow, comrades!


EDIT: x'd since Agan's last, and thus with Volo's vote. Seems like there'll be a wagon banding together. Hope it's a good one!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Nog have you (or I) misunderstood something or are we just on a totally different wavelength? Because I have no idea what you're talking about. Everybody can be stunned but the BW (although hmm I can't remember it being said anywhere that she can't stun herself).

Ok, I think I understand your point a bit better now (now that it was pointed out that the Ordos are told when they are stunned), it would not actually make it so that the Gifteds are revealing, since everyone can be stunned and all they would have to say is "I was stunned last Night", and it would narrow down the possibilities for who the BW is. But to do that we would have to assume that the Wolves and Cobblers are going along with this and would be coming forward if stunned, and that doesn't seem like something they'd want to do (I don't think cooperating with us is their main objective) and also what I said before, if the BW's target is also the Night kill then he can come forward as the person who was stunned, and there would be no way to check if he's telling the truth, and then we'd cross him off the list of BW suspects and that would be bad. So I see your point, that it could work, but I don't think we should do it, still a lot of things that can go wrong.

Like I said before, I say we let the BW be for now, since he has no connections to anyone it would be really hard to try and pick him out and we could really just end up wasting a lot of time trying to find him, when Wolves should always be our priority. Let's leave it to Tom and hope he gets lucky (or we get lucky), until we have more information on a later Day.

So I don't actually think Agan is all that suspicious, I think she just has a very different way of looking at things, and she wasn't saying the Gifteds should reveal like Nog was saying (and that I initially thought), she seems to just be trying to figure out a way we can get some sort of advantage over this strange new role.

Now Glirdypie looked bad to me before that crazy vote (the randomness of it, not just cause it was for me, though him being my BFF and all, that does hurt ), I don't get why he thought Agan's idea had anything to do with the Cobblers, perhaps he's a Cobbler getting a bit paranoid? I don't know, he just seems all over the place and I don't really understand what he's talking about, seems very nervous to me.

And it seems that some people are disagreeing with Lottie's idea about leaving the BW alone for Tom to get him. I don't completely understand why, since letting Tom do his job would actually help us save a lynch for someone else, rather than wasting a lynch and wasting Tom's ability. Yes, that same Night the BW could stun someone important, or stun Tom himself, but in that case we'd just lynch the BW the next Day and we wouldn't be that much further behind. Getting the extra lynch oppurtunity seems worth it to me. Of course if this is late in the game with fewer players (when the BW is more likely to stun someone important) than I would say no, we should lynch him immediately, but if the Seer was to come out toMorrow and reveal the BW, it would be a safe time to just leave it to Tom. I don't think Lottie's suggestion is all that bad.

x'ed with Sally, Agan and Greenie

[Pitchwife]

First impressions up to now:

1. INNOCENT
Mr Unculpable (that's me)

2. LOOKING GOOD
Shasta - his one post so far was fine and very reasonable, I'd like more of the same

3. LOOKING MOSTLY GOOD
Nerwen - mostly very reasonable, except her post about "how to get rid of Tom"; if that was a joke (as I think most probable, it can't really see her thinking that in earnest), it could have done with a smiley for disambiguation.
wilwa - agrees with Lottie on not 'wasting a lynch' on the BW (not good IMO); otherwise pretty reasonable and engaged, no wilwolf chirpyness (good)
Zil - is his usual laid back, reasonable and laconic self; don't trust him out of my eyesight, but more on general principles than because of anything really suspicious as of now.

4. LOOKING STILL SLIGHTLY MORE GOOD THAN BAD
Agan - is all over the place with plans and ideas which I don't find very helpful at all, interspersed with a lot of good points here & there; I wouldn't quite rule out the possibility of her being the cobbler, but mostly, she looks to me up to now more genuine and like an innocent doing some experimental thinking aloud than a baddie.
Nogrod - I agree with him about Agan's plans, not so sure I agree with his conclusions; and this

Originally Posted by Nog

She comes up with the idea that those who have been stunned should come forwards eg. the seer and the ranger should reveal?

is nonsense - like a gifted can't say "I was stunned last Night" without having to say "So I couldn't dream/protect"? Did he really not get that, or is he trying to make Agan's suggestion look worse than it already is? On the other hand, that's been the first reasoned suspicion of the Day, bonus points for that
Volo - I can't quite follow all of his thoughts about the BW, but he doesn't look too bad all in all; in any case I haven't played with him before, so bar any blatant wolvery he'll get a pass toDay

5. COULD GO EITHER WAY
Eomer - his behaviour and vote rather remind me of my Eo-packmate from a few games ago; problem is, they also remind me of an innocent Eomer I've played with before, so I don't really have a clue.
Greenie - wants to discuss cobblers rather than BW, which isn't necessarily evil per se, except it could be an attempt by a Little Green Wight to distract us from discussing her role with her worst-case scenario of five baddies working in team; good point about wolvish vs wightish knowledge & behaviour in #37, though.
TEW - protests his innocence a bit much indeed (btw, Shasta, it's 'thou dost', not 'you doth'); first says we should lynch all baddies (good), then flipflops and agrees with Lottie and Glirdan to leave the BW be (not good); some observations on BW, wolf and cobbler behaviour which I don't quite agree with, but don't look devious IMO.

6. LOOKING NOT SO GOOD
Glirdan - first (in chronological order) this:

Originally Posted by Glirdan

After all, TBW is only really dangerous to our Seer and Ranger, and at the start of the game, xe is as blind to them as the rest of us. There is always the chance that xe gets one of them on sheer dumb luck, but that's a 1 in 16 shot, and if the Ranger is anywhere near as good as I was last game [ ] that won't be a problem.

'Only' dangerous to the best assets we have vs 3 wolves and 2 cobblers???
Second, I don't really get how we could use Agan's voting plan to 'oust the cobblers'. Confusing.
Third, his vote is plain nonsense (with all the discussion we've had toDay, you can't do better than a random vote?).

7. LOOKING FURRY/PEACHY/SKELETAL
Lottie - leave the BW alone if we have a chance to lynch xem? No, no, and no again, and I can't see an innocent suggesting that if she's thought out the ramifications; could well be the BW herself, or a cobbler or wolf trying to keep the BW around as long as xe won't prevent any Night-kills.

8. NO IDEA FOR LACK OF INPUT
Kath - exists and has posted, wow!
Form - hates Day 1, as susual; waiting for more
sally - nothing but early banter; has a cold, therefore excused for now

Conclusions (as of now, liable to be revised on further evidence):

WON'T VOTE FOR
Anybody from group 1-4 and 8

PROBABLY WON'T VOTE FOR
Group 5

MIGHT VOTE FOR
Group 6, i.e. Glirdan

WILL PROBABLY VOTE FOR
Group 7, i.e. Lottie


EDIT: x-ed from #64 down

[A Little Green]

Okay, looks like it's my bed-time. I was debating between Pitch (for a vague feeling from one post) and Glirdan (looking the worse out of the (semi-)random voters). Will vote for

++ Glirdan

Because I feel better voting with a reason than voting with a vague gut-feeling. So just to repeat what I said before: a random vote on Day 1 is not evil-looking because it's annoying (I don't vote for lynch because something is annoying, because annoying doesn't equal evil), but because it is an excellent cover for a wolf. It's an easy way to cover one Day's lynch, and no one can point out any flaws in the logic because there is no logic - and any criticisms can be answered with "It was Day 1, I had nothing better!" But the thing is, anyone has something better than totally random - except for those who know almost everyone's alignment already and don't actually have suspects at all, and have to make everything up (ergo the wolves). So, shortly, Glirdan's vote gave me the impression of a wolf looking for an easy pass through the first Day without getting his hands dirty.

Will try to get to bed now. Good night!


EDIT: x-ed with Pitch, Sally and Agan

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

and this is nonsense - like a gifted can't say "I was stunned last Night" without having to say "So I couldn't dream/protect"? Did he really not get that, or is he trying to make Agan's suggestion look worse than it already is?

Think of yourself as a gifted in a game and learn you were stunned - so someone was already after you! Would you like to bring yourself to the spotlight the next Day calling "hey, it was me the BW picked! Probably for no reason, we must have a reaally bad BW choosing an innocent like that!"

About the BW and the wolves "joining forces" - what are their chances of doing it and their willingness to do it? BW needs kills happening as fast as they can, so she would love to pick the ranger - but she might be happy if the seer gets a wolf or two (so not happy to stun the seer)? Then again the wolves would love to see the BW stun the ranger and the seer as many times as possible, but they'd have to make us lynch her sooner or later.

So I think there is an unworded truce between the two sides now as in the beginning their aspirations do meet. But the going will get rough between them thel ess people there are - especially if the number of wolves gets down early on.

The problem to them is I think this: in the beginning they might wish to co-operate, but there's little to go on finding the other side - in the endgame there might be chances of locating the other side, but then they are already deadly enemies...

Originally Posted by Agan

2. I might have misunderstood something, but I don't see why they couldn't win together. If the BW could only win with the village, why isn't she officially on our side?

Wasn't it said the BW is like a werebear, a team of her own?

Bah, you guys keep posting too fast...