WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Cailín]

I feel kind of horrid having to vote for someone with nothing to go on. Most people have not even had a chance to speak.

As always, I like everything Boromir88 says, but he has fooled me before (and again, and again).

Pitchwife seems to have a response for everyone. This is polite behaviour and for now I approve.

I also feel obliged to say something about Eomer of the Rohirrim even though he has not posted yet. Will be watching him closely and warily, I assure you.

No one has said anything controversial or unexpected. How dull.

My vote goes to

(where is the plus sign on this bewildering keyboard?)

++ Aganzir

Because I know she can take it and I owe her one anyway.

If I am killed in my absence, please avenge my death.

Got to fly!

[satansaloser2005]

Skip and Pitch make me nervous. I'm not yet sure why.

When is deadline for toDay? In an hour or so?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Skip and Pitch make me nervous. I'm not yet sure why.

When is deadline for toDay? In an hour or so?

I thought Day 1 was 36 hours long, which would put DL in 13 hours.

Also, Cailín's vote isn't all that great, but it doesn't look particularly wolfy to me. I don't really see a wolf voting that way. I've never played with her, though, so I don't know what a Wolín looks like.

[satansaloser2005]

A pox on that double post. Anyway, thanks, Pop. In that case, I'll wait to do stuff until this evening. If I don't vote, blame Lottie.

*shuffles away*

[Pitchwife]

Actually, toDay startet at 10AM GMT, didn't it, so with a 36 hours Day, DL should be at 10PM GMT tomorrow evening, if I can count right. So we've got plenty of time left.
And yet there's already a vote! To me, that looks like Cailín maybe wasn't quite sure about the DL either and wanted to get a vote in just in case she couldn't come back later - so not dreadfully wolvish. (Plus, I agree that it can't harm to lynch Agan just to be on the safe side!)

I don't quite know what to make of Ozzy. I surely agree with his philosophy, but apart from that, his first post was a little, hm, lazy. OK, there's little else to do beyond stating the obvious early on Day One, but if everybody just shuts up we'll never get to discussing non-obvious things, so that's not really helping.

skip's philosophy I strongly disagree with (what, mortality is OK for the sheep but it's blasphemy to inflict it on the shepherds? Arrogance!), but he sounds reasonable enough and has a point about spreading the votes - which is very probably going to happen anyway in a village as large and diverse as hours. (Don't remind me of that Shastawagon!*shudder*)

[Rikae]

Pitchwife is making me uneasy.

[Valier]

woah!!! Ok so the start time was not what I was expecting...D1 started at 4am for me. I thought that it would be starting today at 4pm my time (CST) so does this day end at 4am tonight (CST) my time? And does it continue with day starts and ends at 4am? (my time CST) Because that would definately suck!! Ok well I've had a quick skim over the posts and should be in and out today...

So far...hmm noone really stands out to me..Boro seems a little too reasonable maybe?... also I noticed this

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And as Lommy said the sooner we get a wolf, the better. If the seer dreams of one at an early stage (ie before we've lynched any), she should probably consider if it's worth coming out and getting rid of the double kills.

I noticed you said she..... any reasons?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Valier

woah!!! Ok so the start time was not what I was expecting...D1 started at 4am for me. I thought that it would be starting today at 4pm my time (CST) so does this day end at 4am tonight (CST) my time? And does it continue with day starts and ends at 4am? (my time CST) Because that would definately suck!! Ok well I've had a quick skim over the posts and should be in and out today...

No, it should end at 4pm your time, I think.

also I noticed this I noticed you said she..... any reasons?

Agan calls certain roles 'she' habitually - the one that comes to mind is the cobbler. I haven't noticed her calling the seer 'she' before, but it seems like an Aganish sort of thing to do.

[Nessa Telrunya]

The time is now... Whatever time it currently is!

Whew, there's a nice little intro. And hopefully, as town crier, I can shed light on the situation in the same manner as my brother tradesmen. Day1 is always confusing, so I suppose I'll do some statistics.

We have 19 villagers now,a cobbler, and four wolves. That means our percentage of catching a wolf is about 16%, and their percentage of a gifted toNight would be about 12, with a 4% chance of also catching their own cobbler.

So now we are at 19-5, if we count the cobbler with the wolves. If we kill a villager, it is 18-5, and 19-4 if we kill the cobbler or a wolf. But if we kill a wolf, after toNight's kills we'll be at 18-4 toMorrow, instead of 17-4. If we kill a villager, we'll be at 16-5 toMorrow. No good there.

Whew, I love math.

[Pitchwife]

It seems this mortal body gets tired and needs to sleep. See you all later!

[Ozban]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

We have 19 villagers now,a cobbler, and four wolves. That means our percentage of catching a wolf is about 16%, and their percentage of a gifted toNight would be about 12, with a 4% chance of also catching their own cobbler.

I concur with calculations of our chances of lynching a wolf + there's about 4% of getting a cobb.
But Wolves kill 2 of 20. (this presumes worst case scenario) There are 3 gifted in that number = 15% of "non-wolves".
Therefore I belive, that Furries have twice 15% chance of hitting a gifted. With twice 5% chance of wasting a cobbler. This is only approximate calcul, making precise ones would be way past my abilities. I always sucked at math, but the way my calculations go, we are way more screwed, than according to yours, Nessa.

Hey, I actually invented a way to lessen wolves chance of murdering one of gifteds, we can lynch one of them ourselves! Has anyone seen Shasta?

Ok, quite insane, better go to sleep.

See you later.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Pitchwife is making me uneasy.

Care to explain? (Sally too, who seems to be sharing your feelings.)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Care to explain? (Sally too, who seems to be sharing your feelings.)

Nope, not at the moment. And no, I'm afraid I never could explain Sally.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Care to explain? (Sally too, who seems to be sharing your feelings.)

Option 1: Pitch is being jumpy.
Option 2: Pitch is genuinely curious about being suspected by a couple of people on day 1.

The passive-aggressive phrasing makes me inclined towards option 1.

[Rikae]

Careful, Kath, we only have one retractable vote for the whole game.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Option 1: Pitch is being jumpy.
Option 2: Pitch is genuinely curious about being suspected by a couple of people on day 1.

Pitch's reaction seemed more like option two. It wasn't all that jumpy, just perhaps mild annoyed curiosity. I think if we're to look at Pitch, let's look at his posts prior to asking Rikae and Sally to explain. To me he seems to be speaking a lot without saying anything. Like "here I am, being helpful, but I'm really being sneaky by making noise." I believe Lottie called him "polite" (if it was infact Lottie). I don't like this polite game, if that's the best way to put it.

I'm really interested in Rikae and Sally. They've jumped out to me like Pitch has. I'd like to see something substantial from Rikae before making further comment. But as far as Sally goes, there's something about her playing. I can't pinpoint what it is that makes me uneasy. Maybe it's her silence, which has been stated as a RL issue. I best ponder on this. I hope there's more activity before I go to bed because when I wake up I have time to skim and vote.

I'll defiantly post once more before bed and then my vote post.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boro

Looked like a random thing thrown out by Rikae and this prompts Pitch to ask for reasons. Suddenly this makes him jumpy?

I only started to pay attention to the post when Rikae quoted it. Alone, I think it looked somewhat jumpy in the sense that it seemed very carefully phrased.

I find Boro deeply amusing.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Maybe it's her silence, which has been stated as a RL issue.

A silent sally is never up to anything good.

Originally Posted by BG

How would we murder a gifted when we don't know them (or did I miss something?)?

We wait for them to reveal and then lynch them.

Originally Posted by Inzil

And I can't even have a Guinness to help me make sense of things.

Is this because you're at work?

Originally Posted by Mac

looking out now and possibly basing suspicions and cases on it, is almost certainly going to backfire.

You're twisting my words. I never said I'd base suspicions and cases on it, what I mean is that we should make it as difficult for them as possible. They are free to do whatever they wish if we sit back and think "la la la they're not going to hint anyway!" Keep an eye out for things that seem strange.

Originally Posted by Inzil

hinting on the part of the wolves is rather risky this early.

No it isn't. They have more information than we do.

I am aware I might be giving the baddies ideas. But if they haven't actually thought of this themselves before this, I dare guess they shouldn't be too difficult to catch.

Originally Posted by Boro

gifteds walk the tight rope of sending cobbler hints so the wolves don't kill them, but not looking too cobblerish where they wind up getting lynched

There are also ordos who try to help the gifteds and give trouble to the baddies by looking cobblerish.

Originally Posted by Mac

You're the first one to mention cobblers and wolves sending messages. The first point in your first post. And if you look closer at the actual statement, it doesn't even really make sense. I have you down as cobbler until I find someone better.

And? What's bad about that? If I have a point to make, why wait till post three? And what do you mean it doesn't make sense?

I don't like Mac.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Pitchwife is making me uneasy.

Who are you and what have you done with our beloved over-verbose Rikae?

X'd since the post I quoted, as I've not refreshed in....quite a while, actually

[Nogrod]

I thought I wrote the beginning and th ending times of D1 into like ten places + added the reminder that D1 lasts 36 hours like as many times...

Well it seems you can never give out too much info...



So this Day1 lasts for 36 hours.

It began on 10AM GMT/UTC (5AM EST)

and will end on 10PM GMT/UTC (5PM EST) tomorrow.


So you have 22 hours left of the Day.

22 hours and fifteen minutes left to be more exact.


ADD: Valier & Lottie: there seems to be also a "one hour" miss in your calculations (or then I have given you faulty information). But that is easily checked. Look at my post that starts this ongoing D1 (post #4) and see the time stamp on the top left corner. The hour that post was sent is the deadline hour. The only change is that as the D1 is exceptionally 36 hours long, the deadline for D1 is not that X AM as it reads in your screen but the same X PM tomorrow. Like I said above; about 22 hours from now.

[Macalaure]

My, my, my, what a mess here. Cobblers and wolves and chaotic hunters, people wanting to kill with their brain, people doing math (do not tempt me!)... If you think that I'm going to clean this all up you're mighty wrong. Mighty wrong!

*glares*

...

Alright, I'll do it.

Let's put all the absent ones in a box and put it in a corner. Ozban goes into the safe, since I haven't played with him yet. The feel-good ones (Boro, Skip, Legate, Lommy, Sally) go into the drawer over there. The ones who haven't said much of consequence yet (Shasta, Lottie, Nessa, Inzil, Valier) go on that (rather big) shelf over the drawer.

Is anybody going to help me with this?

...

*sigh*

The suspicious ones go in the oven to roast:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It's more than likely that the wolves and the cobbler try to identify each other as soon as possible

Radar make *bling* (remembrance of a game of old)

Pitch's "on the one hand - one the other hand - I don't know" reply to this doesn't look good either, if you ask me. Compare it to skip's straightforward logic.


Finally, Cailín and Rikae get the nice place on the mantelpiece for putting their suspicion and vote in the right place. The safe with Ozban goes on the mantelpiece, too.


edit: Kitanna gets a place on the mantelpiece, too, for putting tons of good points into a concise post. There's not enough of that.

Originally Posted by skip

The Seer must however be very careful to not leave any false trails should he/she happen to get killed.

This makes the seer extremely identifyable by the wolves.

*puts skip in the oven and turns up the heat*

[skip spence]

For such a large village it's eerily quiet, isn't it?

Backtracking a bit since there's precious little new.

Originally Posted by Agan

And as Lommy said the sooner we get a wolf, the better. If the seer dreams of one at an early stage (ie before we've lynched any), she should probably consider if it's worth coming out and getting rid of the double kills.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Yep, the double Night-Kill sucks for us, and getting rid of it is imperative. I'm not sure if I'd like to risk the Seer for it - as long as the Ranger is still alive, maybe it's worth it. But it's not like an open Seer reveal is the only way to catch a wolf, so we should all do our best and not rely on the Seer to risk their neck for us.

I'd agree with Pitch here. The Seer is our strongest piece, our Queen, and should not be sacrificed lightly. It's up to the Seer to decide what to do if he/she catches a wolf or already has done so, but if it were me, I'd wait with the open reveal unless I faced the gallows. The Seer must however be very careful to not leave any false trails should he/she happen to get killed. If we lose the Seer and the trail points to an innocent, we're in big trouble.

Need to sleep soon. I probably won't return until close to the DL.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Who are you and what have you done with our beloved over-verbose Rikae?

Something like this:
IRQL_NOT_LESS_OR_EQUAL

I can't make it out... must be some kind of code or something. If only I had the time, but alas, that's just what we don't have, isn't it? A few millennia just isn't enough.

And Mackie-Pie, I haven't voted yet. And could you take these glasses into the kitchen for me? While you're there, check whether those pastries - er, players - in the oven are done...

[Inziladun]

Melkor, thou art not the King of Arda, and this is not thy realm. Manwë (the Vala, not the player ), shall not forsake us, and under the dominion of the One, those faithful to him shall yet triumph.

In other news, as soon as I have a moment to actually look at what people have said, I'll be back with more.

x/d with Rikae