WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Nessa Telrunya]

The time is now... Whatever time it currently is!

Whew, there's a nice little intro. And hopefully, as town crier, I can shed light on the situation in the same manner as my brother tradesmen. Day1 is always confusing, so I suppose I'll do some statistics.

We have 19 villagers now,a cobbler, and four wolves. That means our percentage of catching a wolf is about 16%, and their percentage of a gifted toNight would be about 12, with a 4% chance of also catching their own cobbler.

So now we are at 19-5, if we count the cobbler with the wolves. If we kill a villager, it is 18-5, and 19-4 if we kill the cobbler or a wolf. But if we kill a wolf, after toNight's kills we'll be at 18-4 toMorrow, instead of 17-4. If we kill a villager, we'll be at 16-5 toMorrow. No good there.

Whew, I love math.

[Pitchwife]

It seems this mortal body gets tired and needs to sleep. See you all later!

[Kitanna]

I spent an hour on a post where I went through all the posts thus far! And I mis- typed and it's all gone. There are no words for how I feel that I can use on a family site.

So to sum up what I spent my life typing...

Rikae and Sally need to state their reasons against Pitch (and Skip in Sally's case) They made no promise to return or even explain it as a knee jerk reaction like Lottie did. A flimsy reason would do this early in game. "I suspect Kit because she drinks ginger ale." Rikae's said nothing else, but Sally has. I don't like the fact Sally has popped in a few times, but not actually said anything or promised anything for when RL allows her to contribute. I can't cast too much suspicion on her, but I'm watching her.

Pitch talks a lot in regards to suggestions made by others. Yet he has yet to really provide his own feedback. That's a little unsettling. [/serious]

So this game, based on what I've read so far, one or all of the following will happen:
-Eomer, Agan, Shasta, Pitch, Boro, Wilwa, Sally, or myself will be accused, possibly killed, based on meta game or personal vendettas
-A joke will become evidence, death follows
-One wolf will lead the bandwagon against an innocent, one will lynch a fellow wolf, or one may possibly dance on town corpses
-I will drink heavily and cry
[/shenanigans and joke]

[Ozban]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

We have 19 villagers now,a cobbler, and four wolves. That means our percentage of catching a wolf is about 16%, and their percentage of a gifted toNight would be about 12, with a 4% chance of also catching their own cobbler.

I concur with calculations of our chances of lynching a wolf + there's about 4% of getting a cobb.
But Wolves kill 2 of 20. (this presumes worst case scenario) There are 3 gifted in that number = 15% of "non-wolves".
Therefore I belive, that Furries have twice 15% chance of hitting a gifted. With twice 5% chance of wasting a cobbler. This is only approximate calcul, making precise ones would be way past my abilities. I always sucked at math, but the way my calculations go, we are way more screwed, than according to yours, Nessa.

Hey, I actually invented a way to lessen wolves chance of murdering one of gifteds, we can lynch one of them ourselves! Has anyone seen Shasta?

Ok, quite insane, better go to sleep.

See you later.