WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Rikae]

Pitchwife is making me uneasy.

[Valier]

woah!!! Ok so the start time was not what I was expecting...D1 started at 4am for me. I thought that it would be starting today at 4pm my time (CST) so does this day end at 4am tonight (CST) my time? And does it continue with day starts and ends at 4am? (my time CST) Because that would definately suck!! Ok well I've had a quick skim over the posts and should be in and out today...

So far...hmm noone really stands out to me..Boro seems a little too reasonable maybe?... also I noticed this

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And as Lommy said the sooner we get a wolf, the better. If the seer dreams of one at an early stage (ie before we've lynched any), she should probably consider if it's worth coming out and getting rid of the double kills.

I noticed you said she..... any reasons?

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Valier

woah!!! Ok so the start time was not what I was expecting...D1 started at 4am for me. I thought that it would be starting today at 4pm my time (CST) so does this day end at 4am tonight (CST) my time? And does it continue with day starts and ends at 4am? (my time CST) Because that would definately suck!! Ok well I've had a quick skim over the posts and should be in and out today...

No, it should end at 4pm your time, I think.

also I noticed this I noticed you said she..... any reasons?

Agan calls certain roles 'she' habitually - the one that comes to mind is the cobbler. I haven't noticed her calling the seer 'she' before, but it seems like an Aganish sort of thing to do.

[Nessa Telrunya]

The time is now... Whatever time it currently is!

Whew, there's a nice little intro. And hopefully, as town crier, I can shed light on the situation in the same manner as my brother tradesmen. Day1 is always confusing, so I suppose I'll do some statistics.

We have 19 villagers now,a cobbler, and four wolves. That means our percentage of catching a wolf is about 16%, and their percentage of a gifted toNight would be about 12, with a 4% chance of also catching their own cobbler.

So now we are at 19-5, if we count the cobbler with the wolves. If we kill a villager, it is 18-5, and 19-4 if we kill the cobbler or a wolf. But if we kill a wolf, after toNight's kills we'll be at 18-4 toMorrow, instead of 17-4. If we kill a villager, we'll be at 16-5 toMorrow. No good there.

Whew, I love math.

[Pitchwife]

It seems this mortal body gets tired and needs to sleep. See you all later!

[Kitanna]

I spent an hour on a post where I went through all the posts thus far! And I mis- typed and it's all gone. There are no words for how I feel that I can use on a family site.

So to sum up what I spent my life typing...

Rikae and Sally need to state their reasons against Pitch (and Skip in Sally's case) They made no promise to return or even explain it as a knee jerk reaction like Lottie did. A flimsy reason would do this early in game. "I suspect Kit because she drinks ginger ale." Rikae's said nothing else, but Sally has. I don't like the fact Sally has popped in a few times, but not actually said anything or promised anything for when RL allows her to contribute. I can't cast too much suspicion on her, but I'm watching her.

Pitch talks a lot in regards to suggestions made by others. Yet he has yet to really provide his own feedback. That's a little unsettling. [/serious]

So this game, based on what I've read so far, one or all of the following will happen:
-Eomer, Agan, Shasta, Pitch, Boro, Wilwa, Sally, or myself will be accused, possibly killed, based on meta game or personal vendettas
-A joke will become evidence, death follows
-One wolf will lead the bandwagon against an innocent, one will lynch a fellow wolf, or one may possibly dance on town corpses
-I will drink heavily and cry
[/shenanigans and joke]

[Ozban]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

We have 19 villagers now,a cobbler, and four wolves. That means our percentage of catching a wolf is about 16%, and their percentage of a gifted toNight would be about 12, with a 4% chance of also catching their own cobbler.

I concur with calculations of our chances of lynching a wolf + there's about 4% of getting a cobb.
But Wolves kill 2 of 20. (this presumes worst case scenario) There are 3 gifted in that number = 15% of "non-wolves".
Therefore I belive, that Furries have twice 15% chance of hitting a gifted. With twice 5% chance of wasting a cobbler. This is only approximate calcul, making precise ones would be way past my abilities. I always sucked at math, but the way my calculations go, we are way more screwed, than according to yours, Nessa.

Hey, I actually invented a way to lessen wolves chance of murdering one of gifteds, we can lynch one of them ourselves! Has anyone seen Shasta?

Ok, quite insane, better go to sleep.

See you later.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Pitchwife is making me uneasy.

Care to explain? (Sally too, who seems to be sharing your feelings.)

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Care to explain? (Sally too, who seems to be sharing your feelings.)

Nope, not at the moment. And no, I'm afraid I never could explain Sally.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Care to explain? (Sally too, who seems to be sharing your feelings.)

Option 1: Pitch is being jumpy.
Option 2: Pitch is genuinely curious about being suspected by a couple of people on day 1.

The passive-aggressive phrasing makes me inclined towards option 1.

[Rikae]

Careful, Kath, we only have one retractable vote for the whole game.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I thought I'd be back long before I actually made it back. Pity, that.

Okay, so we have a couple things to look at. Rikae is being... less talkative and more mysterious than usual, but then it's Rikae, so I don't know how much of that is readable. We have Pitch, who pinged my personal radar from the moment he said "havens forfend we do something like the Shasta lynch again!", but that's a Lottie reason so I'm going to need more to go on. And besides that, he's suspected by an awful lot of people so far, considering. From personal experience as a wolf I know that wolves don't need to do much to push a Day 1 bandwagon right into an innocent, but it's something to look at.

Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan (as far as I can tell they've been the most logical and down to earth so far). No read on Sally, which frankly bothers me a bit.

I'll be back with more.

[Loslote]

I don't really have suspicions at this point. Sally had that one post that caught my eye (in the painful, eye's-gone-now kind of way, not in the oh-that's-so-pretty kind of way), but other than that, not much. I can see where people are coming from about Pitchie, but I don't think I would have noticed it on my own, so I'm hesitant to point fingers at him. Mac's big post of postiness was unnerving, but the one game I played with him (at least, I think that's the only game) I thought the same think about innocent!Mac.

But I do have a lot of people who seem reasonably not-evil right now. Agan looks almost too good (I'm oh so used to suspecting her ). Kit looks really innocent so far - probably the most so - but I haven't played with her much, so I can't really be sure. Skip looks decent, in a not-ringing-any-alarms sort of way. Shasta seems rather innocent in a not-wolvish way.'

[Blind Guardian]

So....hi guys!

So, time ends in one hour thirty minutes or by 10AM tomorrow? Sorry, I am still confused. And I am going by BD clock.

I suspect Ozban cause of this:

Hey, I actually invented a way to lessen wolves chance of murdering one of gifteds, we can lynch one of them ourselves! Has anyone seen Shasta?

How would we murder a gifted when we don't know them (or did I miss something?)? And why do you want Shasta? Maybe 'cause I remember Shasta was a really good wolf one game past...

Also, I am not voting toNight because I am not going to be back on. (Maybe if the DL is at 10AM tomorrow morning I will, maybe)

e;x with everyone since post 43

[Inziladun]

Lots to digest, here. What are you people trying to do? And I can't even have a Guinness to help me make sense of things.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And as Lommy said the sooner we get a wolf, the better. If the seer dreams of one at an early stage (ie before we've lynched any), she should probably consider if it's worth coming out and getting rid of the double kills.

I believe I'd concur. We've seen recently that the trails of a dead Seer can be rather untrustworthy. They may clearly lead to a wolf, or, as has already been discussed, they can lead innocents quite astray, eh, Shasta and Pitch?
Also, an inventive Ranger can make things difficult for the wolves, even with the Seer revealed.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Never fear, I fully intend to shine the lamp of reason on my fellow prisoners and seek to discriminate fair from foul. But this can only be done if everybody speaks up. As our first Day here has been preternaturally prolonged, we've got lots of time for discussion - let's not waste it with moping about the uselessness of Day One!

I'll probably be accused of latching onto the suspicion on Pitch, but he somewhat bothers me too. This feels a bit forced.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

To which I'd like to add, No BlindGuardianing either, please. She's been the default D1 lynch in her last two games, I'd be very wroth to see that repeated without very good reasons.

Now, I'd agree with this. She has a history of being lynched very early, and I can think of only one occasion where she was evil. I'd be inclined to at least let her make it through Day 1.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If anyone has a dream (either dark or light, makes no difference to me) that needs interpretting, speak up. Dreams can reveal some of the darkest secrets and inner-most secrets.

I had a dream I was eating Frosted Mini Wheats, and when I woke up my pillow was gone.

Originally Posted by Loslote

On to more game-related stuff - knee jerk reaction to the posts so far gives me a good feeling about Boro and Pitchie and a not-quite-as-good feeling about Sally. The other people I didn't get much of an impression from. (Normal disclaimer follows; I do not claim that this is exactly right; I do not want everyone voting Sally in a bandwagon of Shastanic porportions the moment I leave; I hold no responsibility if this happens. )

Why would you assume people would jump on your vague suspicion, and feel the need to qualify your feelings?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

On the other hand, I see our Mod has seen fit to grant the cobbler a means to send secret messages to the wolves, so I don't know how much 'open' hinting we're going to see on the thread. Still worth keeping an eye open, to be sure.

Well, the Cobbler can send suggestions to the wolves regarding their kill, and over time they'll be able to narrow down the Cobbler that way. That's pretty time consuming, though, and the Cobbler doesn't want to be killed by them, so I'd think some hints would be likely.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Happy New Vailan Year to all of you!

Should Aulë-quaintance be forgot....

Originally Posted by Loslote

Also, Cailín's vote isn't all that great, but it doesn't look particularly wolfy to me. I don't really see a wolf voting that way. I've never played with her, though, so I don't know what a Wolín looks like.

Could be a Cobbler-signal. Early, ill reasoned votes can well serve that purpose. Then again, she seems to be rather busy IRL.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

The time is now... Whatever time it currently is!

Whew, there's a nice little intro. And hopefully, as town crier, I can shed light on the situation in the same manner as my brother tradesmen. Day1 is always confusing, so I suppose I'll do some statistics.

We have 19 villagers now,a cobbler, and four wolves. That means our percentage of catching a wolf is about 16%, and their percentage of a gifted toNight would be about 12, with a 4% chance of also catching their own cobbler.

So now we are at 19-5, if we count the cobbler with the wolves. If we kill a villager, it is 18-5, and 19-4 if we kill the cobbler or a wolf. But if we kill a wolf, after toNight's kills we'll be at 18-4 toMorrow, instead of 17-4. If we kill a villager, we'll be at 16-5 toMorrow. No good there.

Whew, I love math.

Thanks for the effort, but is odds-making necessary at this point? Just sayin'. Sorry, Sally. I forgot you had a ™ on that.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So this Day1 lasts for 36 hours.

It began on 10AM GMT/UTC (3AM EST)

and will end on 10PM GMT/UTC (3PM EST) tomorrow.

Herr Mod, shouldn't the EST time be 5PM? I think they're GMT-5.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Blind Guardian

How would we murder a gifted when we don't know them (or did I miss something?)? And why do you want Shasta? Maybe 'cause I remember Shasta was a really good wolf one game past...

I believe that was a banter post. And he mentioned Shasta becase the last game he played in, we lynched Shasta-seer Day 1.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Why would you assume people would jump on your vague suspicion, and feel the need to qualify your feelings?

It's happened before - I threw out vague suspicion of Shasta Day 1, and he was lynched near-unanimously. I assumed no one would jump on it then, and they did, so now I'm assuming they will and, hopefully, that'll mean that they won't.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Herr Mod, shouldn't the EST time be 5PM? I think they're GMT-5.

Achh... you're right... I was thinking it 7 hours from my time (which is correct).

Sorry. I'l correct my earlier "correction" concerning the EST.

The deadline is 10PM GMT/UTC - aka. 5PM EST.


Also to Blind Guardian: 19½ hours left of the day...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Should Aulë-quaintance be forgot....

...and Nessa brought to mind;

Inziladun gets free pass for today for making me laugh.

My major impression of the first part of today has been that no-one wants to stand out. Although Ozban looks as though he's a potential nutter. I'll give him a pass too.

Any one of you could be a wolf. Tomorrow will be more interesting. Be back to vote later, though also not for Cailin as that would be an awkward way to say hello after two months.

Ok, I at least have a mini-list of people not to vote for!

[Boromir88]

So far those who've made some sort of initial impression as I've gone along and read...

Agan is being Agan. I thought since she has given me loads of insight into her wolvish mind (as I have given my wolvish insight to her before) maybe I'd be able to figure her intentions better. So far, this is to no avail, but if she had not thrown a random suspicion towards Lommy, and proceeded to make elaborate posts it would be a major shock. Doubt I'll ever be able to tell when Agan's what role, but as it is, she's popped into my head and thus will want to keep her around more.

Rikae for that "Mackie-pie," had me busting out laughing. I think we can solve the mystery of Rikae's role by simply asking her. Rikae-wolf?

Then I come to Mac, who I would be very very frightened of meeting again if I started calling Macki-pie, so I'm going to stick to Mac. However, can you define for me the significance of going into the drawer as opposed to up on the mantelpiece? A drawer suggests you are tucking these people away and leaving us there (what else are drawers good for, other than shoving in papers and folders when you're trying to quick clean up a room?).

Kath has made an appearance, she's really getting the hang of this whole remembering to appear Day 1, and as far as I know was not reminded day has started. (Makes me start thinking I should work on the "trying not to be the obsessive EVERYONE LOOK AT ME WEEEEE!" thing I said I would be working on. )

Pitch is an early name of who is suspicious being thrown around, I'm not seeing where the jumpiness is coming from? Looked like a random thing thrown out by Rikae and this prompts Pitch to ask for reasons. Suddenly this makes him jumpy?

Then Kitanna, Lottie, and Cailin all for mentioning me in some manner. When I revert to scanning mode, I scroll through pages to see where my name appears. So the easiest way to make an early impression/getting me to think about someone is to throw in a Boro somewhere. Doesn't have to make sense, could be like "I was thinking about wolves-strategy and...Boro looks sharp, and the wolves are going to try...wow I really like Boro's sweater-vest," and 90% chance I take notice.

Everyone else has not made an impression on me, or maybe you did and I'd already forgotten thinking about how studious and professional I'm looking at the moment.

Edit: Crossed with Lottie and Shasta

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Option 1: Pitch is being jumpy.
Option 2: Pitch is genuinely curious about being suspected by a couple of people on day 1.

Pitch's reaction seemed more like option two. It wasn't all that jumpy, just perhaps mild annoyed curiosity. I think if we're to look at Pitch, let's look at his posts prior to asking Rikae and Sally to explain. To me he seems to be speaking a lot without saying anything. Like "here I am, being helpful, but I'm really being sneaky by making noise." I believe Lottie called him "polite" (if it was infact Lottie). I don't like this polite game, if that's the best way to put it.

I'm really interested in Rikae and Sally. They've jumped out to me like Pitch has. I'd like to see something substantial from Rikae before making further comment. But as far as Sally goes, there's something about her playing. I can't pinpoint what it is that makes me uneasy. Maybe it's her silence, which has been stated as a RL issue. I best ponder on this. I hope there's more activity before I go to bed because when I wake up I have time to skim and vote.

I'll defiantly post once more before bed and then my vote post.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Boro

Looked like a random thing thrown out by Rikae and this prompts Pitch to ask for reasons. Suddenly this makes him jumpy?

I only started to pay attention to the post when Rikae quoted it. Alone, I think it looked somewhat jumpy in the sense that it seemed very carefully phrased.

I find Boro deeply amusing.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Maybe it's her silence, which has been stated as a RL issue.

A silent sally is never up to anything good.

Originally Posted by BG

How would we murder a gifted when we don't know them (or did I miss something?)?

We wait for them to reveal and then lynch them.

Originally Posted by Inzil

And I can't even have a Guinness to help me make sense of things.

Is this because you're at work?

Originally Posted by Mac

looking out now and possibly basing suspicions and cases on it, is almost certainly going to backfire.

You're twisting my words. I never said I'd base suspicions and cases on it, what I mean is that we should make it as difficult for them as possible. They are free to do whatever they wish if we sit back and think "la la la they're not going to hint anyway!" Keep an eye out for things that seem strange.

Originally Posted by Inzil

hinting on the part of the wolves is rather risky this early.

No it isn't. They have more information than we do.

I am aware I might be giving the baddies ideas. But if they haven't actually thought of this themselves before this, I dare guess they shouldn't be too difficult to catch.

Originally Posted by Boro

gifteds walk the tight rope of sending cobbler hints so the wolves don't kill them, but not looking too cobblerish where they wind up getting lynched

There are also ordos who try to help the gifteds and give trouble to the baddies by looking cobblerish.

Originally Posted by Mac

You're the first one to mention cobblers and wolves sending messages. The first point in your first post. And if you look closer at the actual statement, it doesn't even really make sense. I have you down as cobbler until I find someone better.

And? What's bad about that? If I have a point to make, why wait till post three? And what do you mean it doesn't make sense?

I don't like Mac.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Legate

And if she were a Wolf/Cobbler signaling to the Cobbler/Wolves, she would have actually given a more direct hint, I believe.

She couldn't be more obvious and she didn't have to be. The more direct hint won't come in bright daylight. She only needs to make sure the wolves won't misunderstand.

[elronds_daughter]

Right, well, I had been content to sit and watch everyone else debate and glean what I could (mostly because I'm no good at thinking strategically at all), but I should probably say a brief piece before DL.

Mac and Boro have amused me greatly. In an unrelated item, they also make the most sense to me. I can't pinpoint why, but there doesn't seem anything particularly wolfish about them.

I agree with Legate's point about Inzil not coming across as suspiciously as last time.

So. Not voting any of those four. Yet.

Pitch seems shady, for reasons others have mentioned. If it was just "Hey, wait, why me?", then I wouldn't be so worried, but it's been "Hey, wait, why me? Also, here's a lot of words to make me seem like I'm contributing."

Agan doesn't look too bad to me, maybe a little shifty, but I'll have to go back and read through things again. I'll do the same with Lottie, since I'm not entirely sure where Legate's vote came from...

Right, that's it from me for now. I'll be back briefly before DL to vote, but likely not much more; I have to do rather a lot of driving today.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I meant to post again, but when I sat down to do so I had nothing new to say. But I have to go to work and I'll be there until the DL. Which means it's voe time.

++Pitch

I feel, though he's said a lot trying to look helpful, but hasn't really helped anything at all. Of course he still has 10ish hours to come back, but I don't. So going on what I have to work with now Pitch looks the most suspicious to me.

I don't have time to elaborate or dissect anyone else. Sorry.

Pitch, eh? I'm not totally comfortable with him meself, and Kit's earlier comments on Pitch are fairly consistent, but this somehow feels like an easy vote.

Originally Posted by Ozban

I see more people as "unhelpful" as Pitch. Satan, Nessa I'd say. Way I see it He's just being himself.

Satan? Always unhelpful. *nods gravely*
Round here we call that wily girl "Sally".

[A Little Green]

Alors, my friends, I am here at last. I was relieved when I found only two pages waiting for me (instead of, like, five or six, given the length of the Day and the number of villagers).

Originally Posted by Agan

You can blame me for that because it was originally my suggestion. I semi-regret it now, just like I regret opposing Lommy who said the ranger should get two saves as long as the wolves get two kills (this took place somewhere else than the admin thread).
However I'm pretty sure we are going to see hinting. I've done it before and the village didn't pay any attention to me, and at least I intend not to be so careless. It's an entirely different matter how easy it is to spot, but however careful they are, in the long run we should be able to see connections.

This passage looks fishy to me. What's the function of the first paragraph, other than underlining her own innocence? The second is screaming "Hello wolves I'm hinting to you!"

Originally Posted by Agan

I have nothing against voting for a quiet player today if I don't have a better idea, just because I dislike both quiet wolves, gifteds and ordos.

Originally Posted by Agan, later on in the same post

(one of my favourite wolf strategies is to give the villagers a false sense of security by being strongly yet discreetly of the opinion we can check out yet another quiet/enigmatic person, and another, and another, until it's too late)

Any comments?

Then about the whole Pitch affair. I think he looks more or less like he always does. But then, Nessa's defence of him looks pretty odd too:

Originally Posted by Nessa

I'm not really so sure about the whole Pitchwife suspicion I'm seeing here. With unexplained Day1 suspicion, when nearly anything would suffice, it's perfectly reasonable for him to want some answers. So where does that put Rikae? She seems to know something we don't.

Originally Posted by Rikae

But actually, I'm becoming relatively more OK with Pitchie and less so with Inzil and Lottie at the moment. It's all in the reactions...

This makes me feel slightly better about Rikae. A wolf might not have wanted to back away from such a promising suspicion, unless she thought her work was already done and wanted to wash her hands, or unless the two are fellows. Gah.

I might have to resort to making a list at some point, the village is so huge that I'm having trouble remembering who are playing and what they have said.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

This passage looks fishy to me. What's the function of the first paragraph, other than underlining her own innocence? The second is screaming "Hello wolves I'm hinting to you!"

When I wrote it, my main feeling was annoyance over not being a baddie because this is exactly the kind of game I'd love to be one in. I was aware of my irritation, but not of the fact that I was underlining my innocence until you mentioned it.

And hello wolves I'm hinting to you!

Any comments?

Yes. It's only on the later stages that we can't really afford to lynch the quiet/not contributing players.

Zut alors with you, poisson, I had missed playing with you too. <3

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm still liking Mac, but I think he might be making altogether too big a deal about Agan's post. It makes sense to me (but that might just be because I was just a wolf with her and know how she thinks ).

On the other hand, Legate I think I'm good with because of his last post. There were several things about Lottie I wasn't really liking, but was hard-pressed to actually put those things into words. Legate managed quite nicely. When does Lottie "not really have suspicions"? Lottie always suspects someone. It bothers me that she apparently doesn't right now.

As of right now I'll probably be voting for Lottie, but I'll be around, off and on, until deadline.

[satansaloser2005]

A silent Sally is never up to anything good? More like never up to anyrthing?

No one is seriously believing Agan, are they? I'd mentioned before the game even started that I have no proper webs, yet she's attacking me for being quiet. Quite ridiculous.


I've got some free time so I'll do my best to make a "proper" post while I have time. It may a bit though, so thanks in advance for being patient.

Edit: x'd since Agan-ish

[Pitchwife]

My, my, Rikae's laconic uneasiness with me has sprouted and borne fruit, it seems. Evidently it's 'being jumpy' to ask someone who throws a laconic oneliner like that at me for explanations, especially when it was her first post and she'd singled me out without commenting on anybody else, yes?
Looking at her later posts, she was rather quick to backpedal when questioned about that remark - but by then her 'uneasiness' (I'm not really sure whether to call it a suspicion yet) had been picked up by several others, so maybe she was content to relax and let them do the work? It would be awfully easy to see wolvish behaviour there - a little too easy, I think. I'm actually more inclined to think she was trying to test me for reaction, or maybe even throwing that remark out as a bait to see who would latch on to it.
Kit, for example - if I remember correctly, it was she who first posted a real suspicion with arguments to it against me. On the other hand, she also questioned Rikae and Sally for reasons, and it looks like she weighed the pros and cons impartially before voting. Her vote is understandable due to time constraints, I think, so I'll let her be for toDay.
Mac too, and I notice that he made a point of commending Kit for good posting (buttering up?) and subsequently latched on to the things she said about me. Otherwise, he and Agan are giving me a major headache with that cobbler-hint discussion. I don't see through it yet - better watch them both.

Legate and Shasta have both remarked how Lottie is remarkably un-talkative this game and not quite her regular self, which has bothered me too, but I'm a bit puzzled by this:

Originally Posted by Legate

Now if we are speaking of Cobbler hints, THIS might be one.

I'm not sure what you're saying here, Legate - that Lottie says Agan calling the cobbler 'she' is a cobbler-hint, or that Lottie is cobbler-hinting herself in this quote? If the latter, I'd say that's quite a stretch.
(As for the matter itself, I've noticed that Agan habitually calls all roles 'she' - obviously she doesn't hold with gender-neutral pronouns; so this is certainly not a cobbler-hint on her part.)


Regarding the rest of the village, I'm feeling OK with Boro (and will be feeling even more OK once he cuts the dream-interpreting banter and gets down to business) and skip and not alarmed yet by Zil and Shasta. I'd like to hear more from Ozzy, he hasn't really said anything that's stuck in my memory yet.
Nessa has, I believe, some posts of rather nondescript content as well (have I said that I hate math?). And there's a lot of people still dozing under my caribou with only a post or two - Eomer, BG, Ms Hubbard, Valier, anybody else? I keep forgetting how many people we've got in this village.

Now let's see how many people I've already x-ed with...

EDIT: from #79 onward, that is.

[Ozban]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Not so much of Ozzy, but he is terribly funny. Not very much actually contributive, though. Still, nothing against him for the time being.

Well... Thanks?

You got a point with Lottie, that second post really looks alibistic. But I can easily imagine ordo writing that, just to cover himself. I saw that happen.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Round here we call that wily girl "Sally".

Ah, thanks. Wasn't sure whom was everybody referring to.

I'd love to hear more from Sally. Way it is, i might as well vote for her, she's keeping low profile, not helping at all... Than that question of informations Rikae supposedly had. And although i hate that phrase, got some gut feeling, that everything isn't allright about her.

I'd also like to hear something from Lommy. I don't suspect her, I'd just like to hear what she thinks.

I'm losing my faith in Agan after last few posts. But as Rikae said, her behavior can mean anything.

And there is number of people who are quiet all the time, or so it seems. Cailín, Mänwe, what can I think of them?

DL is drawing nearer...

P.S.: Pitch: Legate isn't going to answer, he's on the plane, unless i'm terribly mistaken.

X'd since 82.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Pitchwife is making me uneasy.

Who are you and what have you done with our beloved over-verbose Rikae?

X'd since the post I quoted, as I've not refreshed in....quite a while, actually

[Nogrod]

I thought I wrote the beginning and th ending times of D1 into like ten places + added the reminder that D1 lasts 36 hours like as many times...

Well it seems you can never give out too much info...



So this Day1 lasts for 36 hours.

It began on 10AM GMT/UTC (5AM EST)

and will end on 10PM GMT/UTC (5PM EST) tomorrow.


So you have 22 hours left of the Day.

22 hours and fifteen minutes left to be more exact.


ADD: Valier & Lottie: there seems to be also a "one hour" miss in your calculations (or then I have given you faulty information). But that is easily checked. Look at my post that starts this ongoing D1 (post #4) and see the time stamp on the top left corner. The hour that post was sent is the deadline hour. The only change is that as the D1 is exceptionally 36 hours long, the deadline for D1 is not that X AM as it reads in your screen but the same X PM tomorrow. Like I said above; about 22 hours from now.

[Macalaure]

My, my, my, what a mess here. Cobblers and wolves and chaotic hunters, people wanting to kill with their brain, people doing math (do not tempt me!)... If you think that I'm going to clean this all up you're mighty wrong. Mighty wrong!

*glares*

...

Alright, I'll do it.

Let's put all the absent ones in a box and put it in a corner. Ozban goes into the safe, since I haven't played with him yet. The feel-good ones (Boro, Skip, Legate, Lommy, Sally) go into the drawer over there. The ones who haven't said much of consequence yet (Shasta, Lottie, Nessa, Inzil, Valier) go on that (rather big) shelf over the drawer.

Is anybody going to help me with this?

...

*sigh*

The suspicious ones go in the oven to roast:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It's more than likely that the wolves and the cobbler try to identify each other as soon as possible

Radar make *bling* (remembrance of a game of old)

Pitch's "on the one hand - one the other hand - I don't know" reply to this doesn't look good either, if you ask me. Compare it to skip's straightforward logic.


Finally, Cailín and Rikae get the nice place on the mantelpiece for putting their suspicion and vote in the right place. The safe with Ozban goes on the mantelpiece, too.


edit: Kitanna gets a place on the mantelpiece, too, for putting tons of good points into a concise post. There's not enough of that.

Originally Posted by skip

The Seer must however be very careful to not leave any false trails should he/she happen to get killed.

This makes the seer extremely identifyable by the wolves.

*puts skip in the oven and turns up the heat*

[skip spence]

This makes the seer extremely identifyable by the wolves.

*puts skip in the oven and turns up the heat*

Haha, thank you for that.

I disagree with you that a measure of carefulness would reveal the Seer in such a large village (or even in a small). And I'm not saying the Seer shouldn't suspect someone at all unless he/she is sure, only that the Seer at this point shouldn't strongly accuse one specific person in the instance he or she happens to get killed because that is very risky. When Shasta was the Seer in that already mentioned game, we foolishly killed him, and then proceeded to almost unanimously lynch an innocent the following Day - I believe it was Pitch) - because Shasta seemed to come after him strongly and we though he was a dreamed of wolf. It was horrible.

[Kath]

Ah! I actually thought I'd missed Day 1 there. I mean I am spirit of nostalgia I know but I have been trying not to do that!

Now, what is deadline? 10 pm tomorrow?

We have retractables so I will vote just in case that's totally wrong, but I sincerely intend to return and vote based on more information assuming I'm right.

Oh! Ignore that, I've just got to the bottom of Nog's post which confirms that deadline IS 10 pm tomorrow. This is now just a random stream of consciousness. Oh well.

Lommy - I would take offence at my inability to play Day 1 being made into a verb, but as I thought I'd done it again I can't.

For once I'm with Legate. Banter is fun but some substance is good too. A mix within posts then would be the solution! If I was someone who had any skills with this in role business.

Wow Agan starts Seer talk in post number 8! Get you with your attention seeking. Fair point though. If we're getting to the stage where the wolves are cutting the innocent numbers by such a degree it probably would be necessary.

I love Pitch. 'Don't lynch Blind Guardian for silly default reasons'. Followed by 'Hmm I don't like Ozban's lazy way of stating the obvious.' (Oddly in text that comes across as really ... mean. It's not meant that way.)

To answer Valier: Agan said 'she' when referring to the Seer because Nog-God has explained all his special roles using 'she'.

So there you have the thoughts that have sprung up on my readthrough. Beats me what's going on right now and so I am off to bed. I imagine there will be 17 new pages to read by tomorrow.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Pitch

To which I'd like to add, No BlindGuardianing either, please. She's been the default D1 lynch in her last two games, I'd be very wroth to see that repeated without very good reasons.

So if she turns out to be a wolf, I know who to look at.

Originally Posted by Pitch

xe will indeed probably want to make xyrself known to the pack in time.

I would poke some fun at one Bill Ferny here (not you wilwa) but I don't want to give anyone ideas.

Originally Posted by Pitch

On the other hand, I see our Mod has seen fit to grant the cobbler a means to send secret messages to the wolves, so I don't know how much 'open' hinting we're going to see on the thread. Still worth keeping an eye open, to be sure.

You can blame me for that because it was originally my suggestion. I semi-regret it now, just like I regret opposing Lommy who said the ranger should get two saves as long as the wolves get two kills (this took place somewhere else than the admin thread).
However I'm pretty sure we are going to see hinting. I've done it before and the village didn't pay any attention to me, and at least I intend not to be so careless. It's an entirely different matter how easy it is to spot, but however careful they are, in the long run we should be able to see connections.

Originally Posted by Pitch

But it's not like an open Seer reveal is the only way to catch a wolf, so we should all do our best and not rely on the Seer to risk their neck for us.

I know and I'm not asking the seer to reveal early just for the general good (because no one wants to sacrifice herself just like that)... But hypothetically if we lynch an innocent each day and the wolves kill two a night, it's going to be 5-10 (I count the cobbler as a wolf because the risk is high they manage to identify each other and can therefore vote more or less together) at the beginning of day 4. That isn't too bad yet, but the seer can't really afford to die without leaving hints (which is risky too because it will lead the wolves to her quicker, etc etc).

Originally Posted by Pitch

The question is, what conclusions should we draw from this once we manage to lynch our first wolf?

I think normal wolf behaviour rules also apply to them this time. Yeah they have more to lose by lynching one of their own, but they might still do it. So I don't think we can draw any conclusions whatsoever, and least of all that we should draw conclusions from it.

Ozban but day 1s are fun! And if you dare to vote for me I'm going to burn all your blackberries once I get out of here!

I have nothing against voting for a quiet player today if I don't have a better idea, just because I dislike both quiet wolves, gifteds and ordos.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Because I know she can take it and I owe her one anyway.

Actually no, we were even before you did that... You lynched me in Dueling Wizards 2.

Originally Posted by Lottie

so I don't know what a Wolín looks like.

Even scarier than Cardo.

I like Rikae. Not that it makes her innocent.

Originally Posted by Val

I noticed you said she..... any reasons?

Yes. I dreamed of her and found out she's the seer.
Anyway for me everyone is a she until proven otherwise.

I don't know what to make of Nessa's maths... On the one hand it makes me slightly uneasy (you'd think a baddie had more of a reason to know where exactly she stands), on the other it's good to know how many innocents we can afford to lynch without being in serious trouble (one of my favourite wolf strategies is to give the villagers a false sense of security by being strongly yet discreetly of the opinion we can check out yet another quiet/enigmatic person, and another, and another, until it's too late).

Originally Posted by Ozban

Hey, I actually invented a way to lessen wolves chance of murdering one of gifteds, we can lynch one of them ourselves!

I don't think I like this plan. :P

I also like Kitanna, which doesn't mean that she's innocent though.

Originally Posted by Mac

Radar make *bling* (remembrance of a game of old)

Hey what's suspicious about that? They have the means to do it, and the only thing we can do about it is to try to make it as difficult for them as possible.

Originally Posted by Mac

Cailín and Rikae get the nice place on the mantelpiece for putting their suspicion and vote in the right place.

I would've thought this was sarcasm, but then he also puts Kitanna on the mantelpiece. What's up Mac?

[Kath]

Agan sticks to a point once she's made it. I agreed with her about the Seer and I don't think talking about it is a problem. You've got to think about it. I do find what she says about Nessa to be a bit odd. She says looking at the maths could be seen as wolvish yet she did the same thing in that very post.

Shasta wants to suspect Pitch but thinks thats 'Lottie' reasoning. Forgive me, it's been a while. Is this a bad thing? It's Day 1, you can't have that much reasoning. Says he has no read on Rikae and sally which faintly worries him.

Someone said Lottie didn't really seem to have suspicions. She does have worries about sally, Mac (ish) and while she can see the potential suspicion of Pitch she doesn't want to focus on it as it's based on what others said. On the other hand, she exonerates a fair number of people: Agan, Kitanna, skip and Shasta. With as much reasoning as can be had this early!

Boro says he doesn't see the reasons behind suspecting Pitch. First one so far.

Kitanna doesn't like Pitch's 'polite' game or Rikae or sally.

Blind Guardian says she suspects Ozban for a comment about Shasta. Fairly sure that was based on an unfortunate Day 1 bandwagon in a previous game and was intended as a joke.

Inzil suspects Pitch as well for his first post feeling 'forced'. Given the rest of the reasoning that's come up this is a bit shoddy. Suggests Cailin could be a cobbler but is more likely just limited by RL.

Mac says it's unlikely for there really to be that many hints flying about. I actually agree. With all the wolves alive they don't really care about the Cobbler. And currently the Cobbler hasn't more knowledge of the wolves than we do. So hinting is going to be pretty limited at the moment.

Nessa defends Pitch and suggests Rikae knows something we don't. Weird half hint at Rikae being Gited there, especially as that's pretty much just how Rikae is!

Rikae says due to the reactions that have gone on that she's pretty ok with Pitch and less so with Inzil and Lottie. I can see what she means about Inzil, not so convinced about Lottie.

Mac thinks Agan is the cobbler because she was the first to mention it and did so very early on.

Ozban says Inzil is unreadable and finds that worrying. Why specifically Inzil? Also questions Nessa for suggesting Rikae might be Gifted.

Legate thinks Lottie might be the cobbler. Fair reasoning behind it but it is the kind of reasoning that can also be explained as 'Day 1 confusion'.

elronds-daughter arrives and agrees that Pitch is suspicious based on a quick read through of the thread, yet requires more time to think on Agan or Legate/Lottie. Hmm.

Greenie finds Agan suspicious. Thinks the way Nessa defended Pitch was odd, which I agree with.

Agan has some interesting suspicions about Mac and skip. Says she might vote for them or for quiet players. Do I count toDay Agan?

Shasta thinks Mac was making too much out of Agan's post. I kind of agree as I'm not finding Agan that suspicious. Likes Legate due to what he writes about Lottie. Again, the reasoning for Lottie does look pretty odd to me as I've not played recently but hey if everyone else is finding it odd maybe it's just me.

wilwa starts off with complaining that we haven't talked enough, but then complains that we've talked about things we don't need to talk about. Huh. Which is it? Talk about nothing or talk about something at least! Exonerates Pitch and mentions potential suspicion of Agan. Basically just one weird post.

Ha, Rikae agrees with me about wilwa. Is this a first?

Ozban is suspicious of sally and Agan a little as well. Wants to hear more from sally. Doesn't everyone?

Valier doesn't think Pitch suspicious, but worries about Rikae because she did suspect Pitch and then voted otherwise. Rikae did follow through and explain her change of mind though.

Pitch has a fair point that while people kept talking about it being vital to catch wolves there seems to have been some strange consensus to focus more on the Cobbler. If Agan is evil then well done her for that!

Ha, sally, if it helps 'disgusting' is Lommy's favourite word. She's pretty worried about skip for seeming to try and muffle the Seer.

Valier is on wilwa's side about leaving the Seer alone to get on with it. Fair enough, I just don't see the problem with throwing out possibilities whether they've thought of them already or not.

Votes:
Kitanna --> Pitch (for trying to look helpful but not being)
Legate --> Lottie (as a suspected cobbler)
Rikae --> wilwa (evil masquerading as innocent)
Inzil --> Nessa (for trying to look helpful)
Shasta --> Lottie (for Legate's reasons)

Back in a few with thoughts and a vote.

[Kath]

Oh and cross-posted since the end of page 3.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Kath

wilwa starts off with complaining that we haven't talked enough

Woah, I never said that, I said people shouldn't have still been talking about the roles, I never said people weren't talking enough.

And this Nessa thing isn't sitting well with me. I sorta get the reasons, but they are rather flimsy (math might be an awful subject, but I don't think math = evil, and the Rikae thing, we're calling that "attempted Seer-outing", really?).

x'ed with Kath, defensive because people didn't like me agreeing with them, I think it was warranted

[skip spence]

Alright then, trying to catch up again.

I've a feeling I'm getting unduly influenced by Lommy for making that list but since I'm pressed for time she at least is off the hook.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Clearly the Swedes feel safe around their reindeer.

Hehe, funny but not quite true. Almost hit one at 70 km/h just a few days back.

Will go for one of the people with votes. When is DL, in 10 min?