WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Boromir88]

Here. I think Inzil and/or Nessa would clear up the weight hanging over the council so far and clear things up for my own head.

[Aganzir]

Greenie -> Inzil
Blind G -> Nessa
wilwa -> Inzil2
Skip -> Nessa2
Mac -> Boro
Rikae -> Boro2
Nessa -> Legate
Inzil -> Boro3
Shasta -> Inzil3
Pitchie -> Inzil4
Cailín -> Inzil 5
Mänwe -> Elron Hub
Eomer - Nessa 3
Legate - Nessa 4

Hmm.

[Aganzir]

++Inzil

Nessa didn't even try to save herself yesterday. Not sure a wolf would do that.

[Boromir88]

Guess this cements it

++Inzil

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Just vote early enough, folks... not to miss the DL.. and right now I'll really prefer Nessa to go, I think...

EDIT: x-ed, all right...

[Nogrod]

Deadline.

Inzil dies in a moment

[elronds_daughter]

Originally Posted by Mänwe

I've only popped in to vote once...E_D has twice and soon to be thrice

I don't only "pop in"...I'm around all day reading, I just generally don't have any input worth putting in. No lightbulbs, and my non-strategical brain is still getting the hang of this. I'm not nonexistent, I'm just not particularly vocal. Mostly I'm afraid of sticking my foot in my mouth like I did last game.

But. Vote.

++Nessa

If we're wrong, we're wrong (and that's mostly terrible), but at least my biggest question mark will answered.

[Nogrod]

The years passed. Although the Maiar had no way of checking on the time as there were no connection to the world outside their narrow corridor of doom – and the pale yellow light stayed the same all the time – they were quite confident the twenty years had gone a long time ago. But still, there was nothing but more of the same.

And more of the same.

And more of the same.

And more of the same.

“Okay. What do you think happened out there?”, Inzil queried finally.

“Utumno was attacked… and destroyed upon us. That’s my two cents. And they have forgotten us.” Boro said looking resignedly.

“Maybe they just don’t know we’re here?”, Mänwe suggested.

“They will not forget us… now will they?”, Cailín thought aloud.

There was a silence.

“I refuse to believe they would forget us!”, wilwa stood up and yelled.

“They will be searching for us through the ruins!”, Greenie added with a glimmer of hope in her voice.

“They will be here any day now!”, Blind Guardian shouted.

There was yet another depressing silence. Everyone knew that was not the case. Through the years there had been no sounds of any search whatsoever.


~*~

Decades went by.

A century went by.

And another.

And almost a third.


~*~

Suddenly they heard sounds from outside.

“They are coming!” Skip yelled and rushed up.

“They are coming to rescue us, Eru be blessed!” Legate added in joy.

“I never stopped believing in this, I really didn’t…”, Shasta muttered shaking with joy.

“A group-hug! Everyone!” Eomer yelled.

“The joy!” Elronds daughter cried.

There was a loud boom and dust blinded their eyes. First thing they were able to see was a glimmer of fire, and a familiar figure standing in front of them surrounded by the subdued flames.

“Sauron…”, Mac and Rikae noted in unison,shivering.

“Long time, no see”, Sauron nodded to them and smiled widely. “Things are advancing...” He added with a triumphant look. “My Lord is coming back soon, stronger than ever. He will just finish a few blows to those goody-goodies first. But meanwhile he has reminded me about you and the experiment. There is rumour about time coming ripe for the second-born to appear. And lord Melkor is more than keen to be there in time, with the right means.

So it’s you then Inziladun. Any last thoughts?”

“Well, I was kind of ready to vote for someone else to save my life at one point, but then I was quite ready to take the axe instead of them others focusing on the baddies… I was just resigned, I guess… and then, well she looked suspicious but because she begged for my other suspect I just thought to save her… *sigh* It’s been a rollercoaster-ride. I’m not sure what I think or want.” Inziladun burst and slowly shook his head. “I’m innocent, though. Like I said.”

“I know you are.” Sauron laughed. “And you guys are showing interesting signs of confusion and resignation. It seems mortals don’t know what they want from their life and try to mirror it from others… who don’t know it either… and then it will be just random, like which voice surfaces on top. I will report these interesting things to my Lord alongside the tapes.”

“Oh, and before I forget.” He took his sword and slashed Zil in two.

With that Sauron vanished.

Inzil's body lay there on the floor, in two pieces, and slowly started hissing, turning into stone.


The living:

Eomer of the Rohirrim - An associate of Ossë, speciality: lochs and ponds, great alliance with frogs
elronds_daughter - A spirit of no-nonsense
Macalaure - Carmótar, the Maia of housework
Shastanis Althreduin - A spirit of water
wilwarin538 - Belongs to Vána, cares for all the small garden dwelling, winged creatures
Nessa Telrunya - The patron of town criers across the world
Pitchwife - Tender of Oromë's dogs
Rikae - A spirit in charge of silicon & static electricity
Boromir88 - A Maia of Mandos, the interpretter of dreams
A Little Green - A spirit in charge of aliens, hummingbirds and farming
Blind Guardian -A spirit of evil ways
Skip Spence - A follower of Aule with an avid interest in behavioural sciences
Mänwe - A spirit of short acquintances
Legate of Amon Lanc - A Maia associated with the unfathomed depths of the world's seas but also with the waters surrounding Arda in the outer space...
Aganzir - Aka. Firebeck, a spirit of fire
Caílin - A spirit of secrecy


The dead:

Satansaloser2005 - (Innocent) A spirit of ducks, muffins and cookies; reduced to ashes and dust on D1.
Ozban – (Innocent) Yavanna's underling with inferiority complex. Caretaker of undergrowth and small bushes in general, especially blackberries; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Kath – (Innocent) A spirit of nostalgy; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Loslote - (Innocent) A spirit of sunshine and rainbows; melted down and turned into vapor on D2.
Kitanna - (Hunter) A spirit of all things unimaginative; committed a willful suicide on N3.
Thinlómien - (innocent) A maia who lives in Lórien and paints the dreams of those sleeping there; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Valier - (Innocent) A handmaiden of Yavanna, collecting the morning dew from the petals of flowers; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Inziladun - (Innocent) A vassal of Námo, serving as a warden in Mandos; cut in half and turned to stone by Sauron on D3.


It's now Night 4.

Sauron will see that you sleep... well, most of you.

[Nogrod]

Eä Herald - Narvinyë 19, 7th age

For today’s human, the fact that the Maiar remained relatively sane during that period of almost three hundred years in the narrow and dark corridor with no knowledge of their future, sounds incredible. Maybe that is why they are Maiar and we are not. But from the next recordings one can actually find traces of what is nowadays called the “Stockholm syndrome”, the odd psychological phenomenon where a hostage starts to feel warmly towards his or her kidnapper. Is that something to do with mortality, the total loss of one’s control to another person, and what does that tell of things like love? That will be for the future psychologists to research on.

Anyway, Melkor was back after the imprisonment – and a few other tasks he had managed to undertake after getting free. But even if he had been away, he wasn’t overlooking the experiment. With the promised advent of the forefathers and –mothers of our humanity, it was clear he wished to get even more out of the experiment.

That is probably the reason why he introduced the new element into it, to the absolute horror of all still present Maiar. It is oftentimes said that Melkor’s twisting of the firstborn was the greatest evil he had done – and the one that made Eru Ilúvatar the most mad. But it is quite clear that turning the uncorrupted Maiar into kinslayers – inspired by the his corrupted elves even if it probably was – stands dark rivalling the worst of Morgoth’s cruelty.

But let’s now go and follow the final moments of the encounter between Melkor and his captives.


~*~


“So, you wanted to know about the outside world? Well, they destroyed this place – which is just good from the point of view of the experiment, as now no one knows you’re here as everyone thinks Utumno was totally demolished. I did serve some time in captivity but I used my time well. After I was released I managed to corrupt the most powerful Quendi who then rebelled against the Valar, and a great darkness has fallen upon Valinor with the destroying of those annoying trees, Telperion and Laurelin. Let’s say it’s like tit-for-tat. Although I think I’m leading in what comes to swaying the newcomers…”

Melkor laughed so that the walls shook.

“The most powerful Quendi have already taken part in a kinslaying – and my balrogs have killed the most powerful of them. Oh, the world out there abounds in lament, hate, sorrow, ire, death, revenge, mutilation, cruelty… What a wonderful world!”

After some ranting like that Melkor became finally a bit more serious.

“But now, I have a new plan for you, or it’s just a slight alteration if you wish to see it that way. From now on, you will need to kill those you pick by yourselves! For that my servant Sauron has brought you some utensils you can use in whichever way you wish…”

Melkor waved his hand and Sauron took a step forwards throwing a heap of weapons to the floor in front of the astonished Maiar. There were swords, halberds, spears, axes, knives, flails, maces, tongs, scissors, pikes…

“That should be enough for even a more demanding taste…” Melkor laughed.

“And to just encourage you to use them as well… have you seen what my loyal servants have done to two of you we sleeping? You haven’t have time? Well follow me then”

Melkor lead them deeper into the corridor where they finally found a hole on the floor of stone. It was filled with some dark liquid – and there was something in the liquid as well.

“That’s what my dear servants do to you during the Nights. So do not be too restrained to get rid of them. Else, that will be the destiny of each and every one of you.”

Melkor and Sauron turned to leave, but Sauron glanced back to the Maiar. “Well done lads, well done!”



The Maiar came closer to the hole and realized there were the remains of their two friends – soaked in their own blood. They recognized the pale skin of the Blind guardian and the garments of the gallant Eomer. Their bodies had been mutilated.

It was outrageous.



The living:


elronds_daughter - A spirit of no-nonsense
Macalaure - Carmótar, the Maia of housework
Shastanis Althreduin - A spirit of water
wilwarin538 - Belongs to Vána, cares for all the small garden dwelling, winged creatures
Nessa Telrunya - The patron of town criers across the world
Pitchwife - Tender of Oromë's dogs
Rikae - A spirit in charge of silicon & static electricity
Boromir88 - A Maia of Mandos, the interpretter of dreams
A Little Green - A spirit in charge of aliens, hummingbirds and farming
Skip Spence - A follower of Aule with an avid interest in behavioural sciences
Mänwe - A spirit of short acquintances
Legate of Amon Lanc - A Maia associated with the unfathomed depths of the world's seas but also with the waters surrounding Arda in the outer space...
Aganzir - Aka. Firebeck, a spirit of fire
Caílin - A spirit of secrecy



The dead:

Satansaloser2005 - (Innocent) A spirit of ducks, muffins and cookies; reduced to ashes and dust on D1.
Ozban – (Innocent) Yavanna's underling with inferiority complex. Caretaker of undergrowth and small bushes in general, especially blackberries; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Kath – (Innocent) A spirit of nostalgy; ripped to pieces, dried and unintentionally pulverized on N2.
Loslote - (Innocent) A spirit of sunshine and rainbows; melted down and turned into vapor on D2.
Kitanna - (Hunter) A spirit of all things unimaginative; committed a willful suicide on N3.
Thinlómien - (innocent) A maia who lives in Lórien and paints the dreams of those sleeping there; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Valier - (Innocent) A handmaiden of Yavanna, collecting the morning dew from the petals of flowers; her destiny was buried with Utumno collapsing over her body on N3.
Inziladun - (Innocent) A vassal of Námo, serving as a warden in Mandos; cut in half and turned to stone by Sauron on D3.
Eomer of the Rohirrim – (Innocent) An associate of Ossë, speciality: lochs and ponds, great alliance with frogs; skinned, gutted and sank into his own blood on N4.
Blind Guardian –(Innocent) A spirit of evil ways; skinned, gutted and sank into her own blood on N4.



Day 4 has started.

[skip spence]

Oh dear.

At least the seer is still alive.

Going to check up on what Eomer and BG have been up to.

[Macalaure]

Sooo, shall we lynch Nessa next and secure the wolf victory?

Seriously, people. Inzil was a very obvious frame by the wolves, and we fell right into the trap, marching and singing 'Hurrah!'. It happens way to often that the strange ones are lynched, not the sinister ones...

Can we all please re-think your suspicions now? I haven't looked at the dead yet, but they seem to me like another no-trail kill. The wolves are very, very content with the way things have been going. We need to get our act together!

PS: First one to say something along the lines of "Even though Inzil was innocent, it's still good that we lynched him and found out. Now the distraction is gone. / We can learn a lot from it." will get my vote. The easiest way to get rid of the distraction is to realize it's a distraction and let it be. Best way to learn something is to lynch a wolf, not a distraction.

[/vent]

[Aganzir]

It seems the wolves really want us to concentrate on Nessa... She's pretty much the only person Eomer and BG suspected. Either they're trying to frame her or want us to believe they're framing her. I find this deeply irritating.

If we don't get a wolf today, we're pretty much screwed. This is why I don't think we should lynch Nessa - just to be on the safe side.

There are a couple of people I'd love to see post more. I'm mainly talking about ed (I know you haven't played much but instead of writing how you have nothing to say you could actually go ahead and tell your opinions on everybody, and stuff), Shasta (way too smooth), Mänwe (self-explanatory) and Boro.

I am afraid of Rikae. Very afraid.

Will be back later.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Seriously, people. Inzil was a very obvious frame by the wolves, and we fell right into the trap, marching and singing 'Hurrah!'.

This wouldn't be the first time I saw a Macwolf trying to stop us lynching an innocent and say "I told you so" afterwards.

[Aganzir]

I think the strongest argument for Nessa's innocence is the fact that she didn't retract in order to save herself the day Inzil pulled a Legate-180. A wolf would care more.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Sooo, shall we lynch Nessa next and secure the wolf victory?

Seriously, people. Inzil was a very obvious frame by the wolves, and we fell right into the trap, marching and singing 'Hurrah!'. It happens way to often that the strange ones are lynched, not the sinister ones...

Can we all please re-think your suspicions now? I haven't looked at the dead yet, but they seem to me like another no-trail kill. The wolves are very, very content with the way things have been going. We need to get our act together!

It is totally disgusting, and yes, I am going to re-think my suspicions. Basically straightaway I could start from people like you, Aganzir, Rikae, okay, Eomer is dead, otherwise I would have said him, but then possibly Shasta for example. If the bunch of you four is it, then I am going to be disgusted beyond comprehension.

Speaking of this: could the kills possibly be not simply kills which are aiming at killing possible Seer picks? Like, BG was one I have suspected somewhat, likewise Eomer was sort of the enigma hovering in the background. Nessa, unless being a Wolf herself, would in such case probably have been left alive because she provides a suspect possible for the lynch. Anyway, I think the idea of killing possible Seer picks (among other things) is plausible, because with two kills, the WWs could afford doing that, in my opinion... That way, they'd get a lot of advantage.

Now I can be left to ponder if Mac's outpour is genuine, I am right now most worried that it's not. Likewise the person who posted after him.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

It seems the wolves really want us to concentrate on Nessa... She's pretty much the only person Eomer and BG suspected. Either they're trying to frame her or want us to believe they're framing her. I find this deeply irritating.

If we don't get a wolf today, we're pretty much screwed. This is why I don't think we should lynch Nessa - just to be on the safe side.

I can just see a Wolf-Agan saying this, of course. Especially with Nessa as her packmate. "A reasonable suggestion, let's not lynch Nessa, really, people". Of course, it all can be in many ways, Agan being really innocent (but no, I just cannot believe that because she is still alive and well), Nessa being innocent, and all that...

(Well I must say about this post in general, the question is again, how much I am getting generally paranoid. Like, I am now, I think, in the mood to switch into suspecting some people just because I don't want them to gloat after the game - and yes, that's exactly like Agan and Mac - so I would in fact prefer to e.g. lynch Agan out of purely "selfish" reasons, so that if she is a Wolf and is lynched, even if the Wolves managed to win later, I could say "ha, I told you so". But okay, okay, I think right now I should probably do it the way that I will go to sleep and post again in the morning, when I can actually think about things more "seriously". Because right now I honestly fear of making up horrible nonsenses if I continue to be here.)

edit: x-ed with one Agan

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think the strongest argument for Nessa's innocence is the fact that she didn't retract in order to save herself the day Inzil pulled a Legate-180. A wolf would care more.

Maybe she just forgot. I mean, it isn't so common to have a retraction in a game, I believe, so...

Gah, this post sounded rather innocent-ish again. But maybe it's good and will filter off my bloodthirstiness and make me actually think rationally (seriously, now the previous post was just... guh. But the idea about the kills of Seer picks, at least, might be possible, don't you think? It occured to me actually yesterDay already, but I forgot about it and then couldn't write it later as I didn't have time).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, also a possible triple-post, but just a note before I go to sleep.

Let's not be really too pessimistic. We can still win this and quite brigthly, I believe. We just need to get a Wolf toDay. Simple as that. But I mean, we can really do it, can't we? Let's keep the spirits up, at least a bit. And then focus on finding out who the heck they are.

(That's to make up for my initial pessimism, which I hope will fade away.)

Okay, going.

[skip spence]

Blind Guardian:

Day 1:
Makes one insignificant post; says she won't vote.

Day 2:
Makes four insignificant posts; votes Nessa because of a "feeling" and because she "is too confident".

Day 3:
Makes two insignificant posts plus a summary of Inzil's actions; still suspects Nessa and again votes her

Eomer:

Day 1:
He has as a pretty quiet first Day. The posts with constructive contents:

Originally Posted by Eomer

Getting somewhat wolvish vibes from Nessa, Skip and Loslote; I always want to kill Kitanna, Greenie, Lommy and Kath and nothing's changed on that count, though traditional feelings are rarely valid in any given game

Originally Posted by Eomer

Well, I'd rather let Inzi live. Nessa looks a bit funny to me, so...

++NESSA

Day 2:

Thinks that the Ozban kill suggests a seer hint. (Ozban voted Nessa on Day 1) Then follows up with this:

Originally Posted by Eomer

All the loudmouths appear innocent to me. Inzi, Pitch, Rikae, Agan, Legate, Mac - nothing's ringing any bells for me. In any case, I'm happy to leave them all around and wait for the trails when we finally do get a wolf.

Nessa is still bothering me: she just feels like a wolf. The Ozban kill seems to tie in with it, so I'd be most inclined to kill Nessa today.

Skip feels less like a wolf today. Lommy is probably wicked but I can't get anything on her just yet. Elronds daughter and Blind Guardian, hmm... not sure. Valier does look pretty creepy. Too many people meaning it's difficult to separate feelings for everyone.

But still

++NESSA

Day 3:

Originally Posted by Eomer

Valier did not strike me as a seer. I suppose the wolves feared her reputation as a formidable wolf-spotter, and decided to end things.

I need to go through Lommy's posts but, as far as my memory serves me, this strikes me as another odd kill.

Could be exactly what they want, and I'm loathe to fall into a trap, but I think they would have killed me by now if Nessa was a wolf. Could be time for a re-think on my part. Need to start looking critically at these helpful, co-operative loudmouths.

Nessa, Inziladun or Skip? I would agree that Skip looks the most likely guy to be set up (by Valier's slaying). Inzil looks the most like a cobbler to me.

I really want to kill Nessa but, like I said earlier, wouldn't they have killed me (or one of the other Nessa voters) if she was guilty? It's quite possible she is the sacrifical wolf.

Macalaure looks most like the standard 'straight guy'.

Cailin, Agan, Green and Shasta all look pretty innocent to me.

BG and Manwe - possibly a wolf in there but we need to first get a wolf who leaves a trail.

Rikae and Pitch are puzzles to me. Wilwa probably innocent. Legate could go either way.

++NESSA

But I'm happy enough with Inzi too.

It takes no Sherlock Holmes to see the pattern here...

Two alternatives:
Nessa is a part of a Wolf-pack trying to get rid of the seer who they believed is either BG or Eomer.

The wolf-pack is setting us up (again). That seems all too likely eh?

It really is time to have a fresh look at the people left alive.

EDIT: x'ed with Leg and Agan

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Alive

elronds_daughter - A spirit of no-nonsense
Macalaure - Carmótar, the Maia of housework
Shastanis Althreduin - A spirit of water
wilwarin538 - Belongs to Vána, cares for all the small garden dwelling, winged creatures
Nessa Telrunya - The patron of town criers across the world
Pitchwife - Tender of Oromë's dogs
Rikae - A spirit in charge of silicon & static electricity
Boromir88 - A Maia of Mandos, the interpretter of dreams
A Little Green - A spirit in charge of aliens, hummingbirds and farming
Skip Spence - A follower of Aule with an avid interest in behavioural sciences
Mänwe - A spirit of short acquintances
Legate of Amon Lanc - A Maia associated with the unfathomed depths of the world's seas but also with the waters surrounding Arda in the outer space...
Aganzir - Aka. Firebeck, a spirit of fire
Caílin - A spirit of secrecy

Right then. A list, to first get my thoughts in order, one by one.

elronds_daughter - Quiet. Second, after Manwe, on my list of "people Shasta will analyze today".
Macalaure - Intermediate. I've been giving him a pass thus far on the basis of his outspoken-ness. This needs to stop.
wilwarin538 - I honestly don't remember much of anything that's she's said or done in the last couple of days. This is a problem - she's slipping under my radar.
Nessa Telrunya - The wolf-frame-favorite, it seems. Lots of the talk the last few days has been about her, and thinking back, I don't recall her ever passionately defending herself. Contrary to what I said about Inzil yesterday, I'm not sure lynching her is the best option today.
Pitchwife - Under my radar. I need to have a closer look at him today.
Rikae - Interesting. A lot of what she's done has made me think she's being her typical wild-ordo self. As of right now I'm okay with her.
Boromir88 - Pinging my radar a bit. I need to go back and see exactly why, but I need to see more of him today.
A Little Green - I stand by the fact that I think she's being quieter than usual. Another one pinging my radar.
skip spence - A bit farther under my radar than I'd like. One I will be looking at today.
Manwe - Tops my list of 'players to analyze' today. I don't think anyone has paid much attention to him at all, and I don't like that.
Legate of Amon Lanc - I thought him suspicious in the beginning, but what I've seen since makes me think he's more innocent. A conundrum, but I think I'm okay with him right now.
Aganzir - Entirely too evil to be evil, if that makes sense. Possibly a cobbler, but I sincerely doubt she's a wolf. (More likely cobbler than innocent, though.)
Cailin - I like her style, but I'm afraid I may have been giving her a pass due to that. One I'll be looking at today.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Now, taking the above information and putting it in a form that makes sense -

Green

Legate
Aganzir
Rikae

Green-Yellow

Nessa
Wilwa
Cailin

Yellow

Skip
Elronhubbard
Mac

Yellow-Orange

Boro
Greenie
Pitch
Manwe

Red

None

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

PS: First one to say something along the lines of "Even though Inzil was innocent, it's still good that we lynched him and found out. Now the distraction is gone. / We can learn a lot from it." will get my vote. The easiest way to get rid of the distraction is to realize it's a distraction and let it be. Best way to learn something is to lynch a wolf, not a distraction.

Obviously you want the lynched-distraction to be a wolf. And are you seriously suggesting we just let Nessa walk away now? Time to get yourself new glasses because the wolves are standing right in front of you, but you're not seeing them. The wolves are just taunting and bluffing us at this point, but you're too focused on me. Now I know I haven't been playing up to my standards, but you'll only have yourself to blame when this is over.

I know I haven't been much use in forming suspicions, but I've tried what I can, by keeping up on reading everything and by not throwing away votes. I've been wrong in voting so far too, but I can't believe you're seriously saying we just let Nessa go.

[Rikae]

Even though Inzil was innocent, it's still good that we lynched him and found out. Now the distraction is gone. / We can learn a lot from it.

[elronds_daughter]

Bah. So upset with myself for just barely missing DL yesterday. I just couldn't make up my mind. And when I finally did it was too late. Not that it would've saved poor Inzil anyways...

Not sure how often I will be able to be around toDay. Tomorrow starts the first day back to school, and my Mondays are very long. I may have to just pop in to vote a few hours early, though I sincerely hope that won't be the case. I think it would probably be better for me to not vote toDay if I don't end up having the time to make it an informed vote.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Maybe she just forgot. I mean, it isn't so common to have a retraction in a game, I believe, so...

And do wolves forget that kind of stuff? I wouldn't.

Shasta why am I green if I'm more likely the cobbler than innocent?

I think Boro is the cobbler (or a wolf posing as one, but it seems unlikelier). He is being useless and he knows it. I've been disinclined to go after him thus far because I thought he might be a gifted, but we're now four days into the game and I find it impossible he'd be so blatantly unhelpful if innocent.

[Macalaure]

Yes, this is a long one. I can't help it. Feel free to skip past the boring stuff.

I went through what (still living) people said about Lottie, Inzil, and Nessa since Day2, and assigned negative numbers to suspicious comments and positive numbers to innocent-looking ones.

Lottie might have been an all-innocent lynch, but there were evil bystanders at least. Considering the set-up against Inzil, I find it hard to believe that wolves had no part in his actual lynch. Nessa is a bit of a question mark, since we don't know her role, but her innocence would fit the picture perfectly.


Day2

#168 Legate brings up Inzil's strange Day2 entry. (fair point, but very back-and-forth-y) -1

#174 Legate says if the votes point to anybody, it's Nessa and Inzil -1 (for slight fishiness

#178 Cailín makes a solid point about Lottie (0)

#179 Legate comments to Lottie and says she now sounds innocent. +2

#182 Rikae argues with Nessa a bit, but it doesn't give me a bad feeling. Says Lottie might have been hiding behind her vote (not solid) -1

#183 Pitch analyses Ozban's death, which leads into a whole post against Nessa (0, since a wolf might not post so condemningly)

#186 Cailín agrees with Pitch casually -2

#188 Pitch states that Inzil was self-conscious based on Kath's suspicion, but doesn't go as far as to really suspect him. (0)

#200 e_d says Inzil doesn't look like a wolf. +2

#202 Boro, among many things, repeats his Inzil-pillowtalk (which doesn't make any sense) to me. -1

#206 Legate repeats that he doesn't suspect Lottie anymore. +1
He also says he's "somewhat wary" of Inzil. -1

#210 Skip fence-sits on whether Ozban's kill incriminates Nessa. -2

#219 Rikae list: back-and-forth on Lottie (-1), pondering Nessa, inconclusive on Inzil

#221 Cailín analyses Nessa, finds nothing of remark, but closes with "she has done nothing to make her look innocent" -1

#231 Legate is displeased about Nessa. -1

#234 Shasta criticises point Pitch and Cailín made about Nessa. +2

#252 Shasta list: feels slightly bad about Nessa (there are some points against her), and moderately bad about Lottie (refers back to Day1) and Inzil(screams double-bluff wolf) -2

#253 Skip gives Nessa the benefit of the doubt (+1), very fishy statement about Lottie (-2), and "I'm be tempted to try Inzil. Not because I really suspect him, but rather because his identity could shed some light of yesterDay's voting." (-3)

#257 Skip is unhappy about Lottie's vote (too safe). (-1)

#260 Shasta is, too. (-1)

#267 Greenie list: Lottie's innocent but she doesn't buy everything (0), questions the validity of the evidence against Nessa (+1), leaning bad about Inzil, and fishily so (-2)

#273/274 Cailín goes after Lottie (somewhat fishily) and votes for her (-2) and considers Nessa "to clear up some confusion" (-2)

#275 Pitch doesn't like the evidence against Inzil (+1), sticks to his Day1 vote Nessa (-2)

#276 Agan list: Lottie innocent (+1), can't see what makes Nessa suspicious (+1), lists a few bad things about Inzil, then says she's not concerned about him (-2)

#278 e_d: fishy comment about Inzil (-1)

#279 Legate list: inconclusive statement about Nessa (-1), positive about Lottie (+1), wary of Inzil, but not suspecting (0)

#283 Legate won't vote Lottie (+1), could vote Nessa (-1), "unsure which category to put in": Inzil (-3)

#284 Greenie votes Inzil, but is "quite unsure" about it (-3)

#287 Cailín list: Inzil innocent (+1), Lottie guilty (prev. post) (-1), Nessa (not committed, quiet) (-1)

#288 Rikae notes that both "psychics" feel uneasy about Inzil (-1)

#290 Agan could vote Nessa to get rid of an enigma (-2)

#291 Rikae votes Lottie (straighforwardly) (-1), discourages Nessa suspicions (+1)

#294 Rikae switches to Inzil (0) (the reasons are suspicious, but why would a wolf make a big deal about switching from one ordo to another)

#296 Cailín votes Lottie. (0) she's consistent in it, which makes it not suspicious.

#300 Agan: Zil's last post was creepy (-1)

#301 Legate: Definitely not for Inzil, not for Lottie (+3)

#303 e_d: Inzil mostly alright (+1), votes for Lottie (-1)

#310 Agan votes for Nessa (-1), casually stating that she doesn't actually suspect any of the leading candidates. I'd give more points for this, but she did explore other options before.

#311 Legate votes for Nessa (0) (makes sense considering his previous statements)


Day3

#319 Agan wonders whether both Nessa and Inzil are wolves, because of the Legate-180 (-3)

#322 Legate suspects Inzil to be the cobbler (-1)

#326 Rikae is dissatisfied by Inzil's explanation of his vote (-1), considers whether both Inzil and Nessa could be wolves (-1)

#330 Rikae goes after Inzil more (-1)

#333 Pitch questions Inzil on a few things (-1), has second thoughts about Nessa (too wish-washy to get + points)

#354 Greenie gives a whole lot against Inzil (-1) (not more, since I don't think the wolves would be this elaborate)

#361 Legate is very undecided about Inzil and Nessa (-1)

#365 Greenie list: Very shady suspicion about Nessa (-3), still suspicious of Inzil (0)

#367 Agan talks about Inzil's last 10 minutes on Day2 (-1) (as with Greenie before, would a wolf follow up the nightly frame this openly?)

#369 Legate is still undecided about Inzil (-2) (creates subtle confusion, which I think is something the wolves might want)

#371 Agan: fishy comments about Inzil and Nessa (-1)

#373 Greenie is the first to vote Inzil (0)

#375 Cailín: "if the wolves thought Valier was the seer, then Nessa looks good" (+1)

#377 Legate:

But anyway, maybe I am overcombinating stuff too and perhaps the WWs are simply going for those who suspect them, in which case it would be really simple and the Wolves are like Nessa, Zil and some others and we are just wasting days worrying about nothing when we should just lynch them.

Radar go *ping* (-3)

#382 Agan lets go of Inzil a bit (+1)

#384 e_d wouldn't be surprised if Inzil was the cobbler (-1)

#390 Wilwa "doesn't get the Nessa thing", which would be good, except that she puts a host of unsure comments after it (-1), gives reasons against Inzil and votes for him. (a bit easy, -1)

#396 Skip analyses Day2 voting and ends up being suspicious of Nessa and Inzil in a very back-and-forthy way (-2)

#398 Cailín list:
"Nessa - We talk about her a lot, but there's no answer. Could she really be a wolf?"
"Inziladun - has without a doubt been a distraction: strange."
Very fishy comments. (-3)

#401 Skip list:
"Nessa Telrunya - Might well be a wolf I think. Evidence against her not favourable."
"Inziladun - If he is innocent I feel sorry for him. Quite a bit stacked up against him though."
Trying to beat Cailín in fishiness. (-3)

#402 Cailín doesn't like Nessa's martyr-thing. (-1)

#403 Boro: Calls Pitch, Nessa, Inzil big question marks that will forever haunt us, then asks Legate whether they should widen the search. Says he would regret letting Nessa and Inzil slip by. (-3)

#405 Skip votes Nessa "I think the points against her are strong enough for testing out". (-3)

#410 Shasta:
Honestly after three days of this crap, I think its high time we lynch one of the two inherently confusing people. I will probably vote for Inzil/Nessa.
(-3) (you might notice the pattern: people who suspect/vote Inzil/Nessa without being actually suspicious of them themselves get a lot of points)

#412 Agan (had ignored Nessa and Inzil for a while at this point) wants to vote for Inzil or a quiet one (-1)

#413 Shasta repeats what he said before: if we don't lynch Nessa/Inzil, we'll keep on talking about them (-3)

#416 Rikae suggests forgetting about Nessa/Inzil for now (+1)

#417 Pitch agrees with Shasta (coming up with the idea is bad enough, but passively agreeing?). Pitch repeats his intention to vote for Nessa (hasn't given a new point on her in a while), but says Inzil looks even worse. (-4)

#421 Cailín agrees as well (-3)

#422 Shasta adds a fishy reason and votes for Inzil (-2)

#423 Pitch flips a coin between Inzil and Nessa and votes Inzil (-2)

#424 Shasta adds another fishy reason against Inzil (-1)

#427 Cailín concedes that it's a bandwaggon (if she seriously suspected him, it wouldn't be a problem, would it?) and votes Inzil (-2)

#430 Legate is unsure about voting Nessa or Inzil (-1)

#434 e_d is not ready to jump on the Inzil-waggon (0)

#437 Legate is swayed towards Inzil or Nessa. He seems genuinely unhappy with the decision, though. He then votes for Nessa (0)

#441 Boro repeats that lynching Nessa/Inzil would "clear up the weight hanging over the council" (-2) (and -1 for melodrama)

#443 Agan votes Inzil (-1), since she hesitates about Nessa (+1)

#444 Boro votes Inzil, waiting til others decided it for him (-2)

#447 e_d votes for Nessa (-1)


Final Count:

Cailín -18 +2 (-16)
Skip -16 +1 (-15)
Shasta -12 +2 (-10)
Agan -13 +4 (-9)
Boro -9 +0 (-9)
Legate -17 +8 (-9)
Greenie -9 +1 (-8)
Pitch -9 +1 (-8)
Rikae -6 +2 (-4)
wilwa -2 +0 (-2)
e_d -4 +3 (-1)
Mänwe -0 +0 (0)

Alright, you can certainly argue whether each point I assigned is deserved or not, but all in all I think I got the picture right. Obviously, frequent posters look worse here, which the other way around means that infrequent posters should be higher. According to this, our wolf-pack is Cailín, Skip, Shasta, and Boro, with Agan, Legate, Greenie and Pitch other possibilities. I'd like to clear Rikae and e_d, but I hesitate to clear wilwa and Mänwe, who stayed almost completely outside of the discussion.


I only noticed this now while re-reading:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

My non-Downer friend (who doesn't know my role) is lying on the floor next to my chair and trying to distract me: "Macalaure is a wolf. I know he is. I must be the seer. I hope the wolves don't come and eat me tonight. Do you suspect Macalaure? Let's lynch Macalaure! Don't write that!"

[Rikae]

Mac and Boro clearly both have agendas, and one of them is the wolves' agenda. Let's toss a coin and lynch one.

Well, not toss a coin, but Boro is treating Nessa as a known wolf, and Mac is treating her as a known innocent. I think it would be a bad idea to lynch her toDay for the same reason I thought it was to lynch her or Inzil yesterDay, but when it comes to everyone else I just find myself wondering how many cobblers this village has (of course, looking cobblerish is everyone's safest bet, but come on...)

[Rikae]

A few more things.

Clearly by now people know things. The wolves almost certainly have identified the cobbler, who probably has a good idea of them in turn. The seer knows a few people's roles, unless xe had the bad luck to choose those who are already dead. The wolves and cobbler probably feel an easy victory is nearly in hand. I certainly feel as though they're herding, or leading this village at this point, and I don't like it one bit.

I have an idea about someone who might know something, and I hope xe knows what I mean. If xe can in some way let me know if it's safe to mention this, I will; if anyone wonders, I, as the werebear Nog erroneously called an ordo , don't know anything at all (except that I know nothing).

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I think Boro is the cobbler

I wish I would have thought of that yesterDay, but you're right. Certainly his behaviour toDay strongly suggests it.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

Shasta why am I green if I'm more likely the cobbler than innocent?

Shasta why am I not green?

Ahem. I should have more time toDay than any of the previous Days, I've been busy but since I'm only supposed to write an essay today I know myself well enough to guess I'll be playing werewolf all day instead.. There are a few things and people I'd like to have a look at. I'd be interested in taking a look at Shasta, Ed, Wilwa, Cailín and Nessa. (I can already hear a cry of "She wants to look at Nessa! She's a wolf!" But the thing I'm interested in is what Nessa herself has said and done, not what the wolf kills have been or who has voted her / saved her fishily.)

[skip spence]

Lunch-time and a quick pop-in.

Originally Posted by Agan

My non-Downer friend (who doesn't know my role) is lying on the floor next to my chair and trying to distract me: "Macalaure is a wolf. I know he is. I must be the seer. I hope the wolves don't come and eat me tonight. Do you suspect Macalaure? Let's lynch Macalaure! Don't write that!"

I'm beginning to think your lovely non-downer friend might have a point.

Had a quick look at Mac's long analysis-post and I'm rather disturbed that he seems to regard Nessa as an innocent. Yes she might well be, but frankly, I fail to see how voting or suspecting Nessa (an unknown and ie possible baddie) objectively is much worse than voting and suspecting a now proven innocent. Huh, Mac?

When I get back I should like to have a proper look at Mac, Rikae and Agan. Also Shasta and Cailin, I suppose. Mostly because these people never really have worried me before.

It would be nice to get a summary of the voting record of the people left alive too.

Edit: Guess that Boro as the cobbler makes sense. If he is, do we let him get away with that?

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Skip

It would be nice to get a summary of the voting record of the people left alive too.

I can provide that at some point, right now I'm working on gathering all the votes from all the Days with the reasoning behind them included. I was always of the opinion that just the names and numbers don't tell us much. But since it proved a bigger project than I anticipated, I'm going to post it one Day at a time. I'll post comments of my own only until I have the whole picture. So here we go:

Day 1 votes (known innocents in italics)

Cailín – Agan
(”Because I know she can take it and I owe her one anyway.”)

Kit – Pitch
(”I feel, though he's said a lot trying to look helpful, but hasn't really helped anything at all.”)

Legate – Lottie
(”Now if we are speaking of Cobbler hints, THIS might be one.” and ”This was just a very well possibly Wolfy post. I mean, the sort of quiet raising of suspicion, putting in a few names and then saying you don't actually suspect them, but if any people follow your opinion, then you join the bandwaggon and point at that 'I have been saying that I suspect them all along'.”)

Rikae – Wilwa
(”Wilwa's seeming desire to admonish the village (yes, based on something I said, but I didn't say much) and wash her hands of the Pitch-wagon both strike me as evil attempts at being involved and positioning oneself in an innocentish way without actually having to go out on a limb.”)

Inzil – Nessa
(”Nessa seems off; the "oddsmaking" post just looks like trying to seem helpful.”)

Shasta – Lottie 2
(”Lottie always suspects someone. It bothers me that she apparently doesn't right now.”)

Boro – Inzil
(”They [Eomer and myself] usually aren't the chatty posters, but still get involved and in the action early on. Same can be said about Inzil who I realized has as many posts as me, but the only thing I can recall about him is the dream and eating his pillow...”)

Sally – Pitch 2
(”For shiftiness and wanting (on my part) to not just vote for one of the people who is attacking me.”)

Ozban – Nessa 2
(”As the air grows gravely stinky
this may seem like out of blue
I ask advice of my pinky:
'cause I know not half of you
"I shall not vote Agan kinky."
and the end is nearly due.”)

Wilwa – Sally
(Cobbler hint; ”With that said, I think Sally is at the top of my list. With the incorrect representation of what Skip said about the Seer, and the fact that she seems to be a bit all over the place with dislikes and likes, either by going from liking someone to not, or some are just a "yay, this person is shiny" or "no, I don't like this", without really giving any reasons. I know all that is a bit superficial, and on it's own I wouldn't likely suspect her, but that isn't all I have against her....so yeah, I'm really suspecting her right now.”)

Pitch – Nessa 3
(”For mathematical pseudo-helpfulness and attempted Seer-outing.”)

Kath – Inzil 2
(”faintly shoddy reasoning against Pitch compared to everyone else and he came to it late.”)

Valier – Inzil 3
(”Just don't like his Nessa vote because of her math, I didn't find her overly suspicious and I just get this itching feeling that he may well be a baddie”)

Nessa – Rikae
(”My hint was that if she knows something we don't, it's suspicious. After all, the wolves all know something we don't: who to kill. She got quite jumpy after being called out, and hastily backtracked, which seems really strange to me, not to mention how much discussion and sidetracking has resulted from her first post about Pitch. Perfect opportunity for a wolf.”)

Eomer – Nessa 4
(”looks a bit funny to me”)

Skip – Sally 2
(”Just got this icky feeling about her misrepresenting my words.”)

Elra – Pitch 3
(”Pitch seems shady, for reasons others have mentioned. If it was just "Hey, wait, why me?", then I wouldn't be so worried, but it's been "Hey, wait, why me? Also, here's a lot of words to make me seem like I'm contributing.””)

Lottie – Sally 3
(”Sally still worries me”, ”Sorry, dear, but you're the best hunch I've got.”)

Lommy – Sally 4
(”gives me a little fishy vibes. Something off with that long post of hers, but can't really pinpoint it.”)

Agan – Sally 5
(”No. It won't work - unless the Cobbler says it in the thread. So if the wolves get sally's name tonight, they can go back and realise "Hey, she said this!" I really really really don't like this point.”)

So Sally 5, Nessa 4, Pitch 3, Inzil 3, Lottie 2, Rikae 1, Wilwa 1, Agan 1.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So, what do we have here.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Obviously you want the lynched-distraction to be a wolf. And are you seriously suggesting we just let Nessa walk away now? Time to get yourself new glasses because the wolves are standing right in front of you, but you're not seeing them. The wolves are just taunting and bluffing us at this point, but you're too focused on me. Now I know I haven't been playing up to my standards, but you'll only have yourself to blame when this is over.

I know I haven't been much use in forming suspicions, but I've tried what I can, by keeping up on reading everything and by not throwing away votes. I've been wrong in voting so far too, but I can't believe you're seriously saying we just let Nessa go.

I am not sure, was that serious? If yes, then Boro looks suddenly really bad to me - because this sort of "GET OFF ME!" reaction is typical for him when he is a Wolf.

Or, as somebody has said, he might actually be the Cobbler, which would make sense too.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And do wolves forget that kind of stuff? I wouldn't.

And what of newbie Wolves? I can imagine it.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, not toss a coin, but Boro is treating Nessa as a known wolf, and Mac is treating her as a known innocent. I think it would be a bad idea to lynch her toDay for the same reason I thought it was to lynch her or Inzil yesterDay, but when it comes to everyone else I just find myself wondering how many cobblers this village has (of course, looking cobblerish is everyone's safest bet, but come on...)

I must say, in one way I really really dislike the fact that Nessa was almost lynched for like, what, three consecutive days. On the other hand, perhaps if she is a Wolf, she deserves the title of the "survivalist" and a credit for that. It would be nice to hear also from herself, for that matter. I have to say that I think there definitely are people more suspicious than her, she just seems to be the one whom most people have agreed on.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Clearly by now people know things. The wolves almost certainly have identified the cobbler, who probably has a good idea of them in turn. The seer knows a few people's roles, unless xe had the bad luck to choose those who are already dead. The wolves and cobbler probably feel an easy victory is nearly in hand. I certainly feel as though they're herding, or leading this village at this point, and I don't like it one bit.

I have an idea about someone who might know something, and I hope xe knows what I mean. If xe can in some way let me know if it's safe to mention this, I will; if anyone wonders, I, as the werebear Nog erroneously called an ordo , don't know anything at all (except that I know nothing).

I am really curious what is going to come out of this, because if you are on the village's side, I cannot see why you don't speak plainer, or what the thing you have in mind is. Okay, really curious.

skip looks fairly good to me now, by his posting.
Greenie does too.
Shasta's last post... well, on first sight, I wasn't sure, I didn't like all the "this and this is under my radar, this one as well," sort of detachedness which could be like "I don't know anything, don't mind me, just lynch somebody and then we'll see, if we are lucky, you have lynched one of your own and us Wolves will laugh into your face". But on the other hand, reading the stuff actually, he looks like might be really commited to that. Well, I think I will have a better picture of him after he does what he promised and takes a look at LRH and such, that would show that he is not just making stuff up but really doing it.

If Boro is the Cobbler, then I would say either Rikae and/or Mac and/or Agan are Wolves, or maybe all of them.

I don't know about LRH (still have the reasons for suspecting her as I had yesterDay, but the question is who are her packmates), Cailín and Mänwe are practically nonexistant (though Mänwe looks more innocent to me than not, while in Cailín's case I have no idea), and wilwa, well... I cannot say. I am completely at loss with Pitch. From the beginning till now. Totally under my radar. Pitch, where are you?

Let us not forget now, the Wolves will be reluctant to give up one of their packmates right now. They'll prefer us to lynch some totally random person. Therefore, everybody who is innocent, I suggest making it clear for you whom you suspect and whom you want to lynch, at least roughly, and not let yourselves swayed too much by that e.g. XY randomly mentioned this one, or another person suddenly randomly mentioned that one... Or, try to at least make it clear whom you don't want to lynch, I think that should be good enough for the beginning as well.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie, Valar bless you for the voting summary - I have been actually thinking about the same, since with this huge game, it is really annoying that I could not review the votes properly all at once.

[A Little Green]

Day 2 votes (known innocents in italics)

Nessa – Rikae
(”I'm still really worried about Rikae, and it wouldn't sit right with me to vote some of the other speculated people when it's a whole mess in there.”)

BG – Nessa
(”Since yesterday I haven't felt really good with nessa since yesterday, more of a feeling that is hard to explain... She seems to have to much confidence in herself.”)

Lottie – Kit
(”I suppose I'll probably go with Kit so that the option is there if we decide to lynch her and see where her Hunt leaves us and whatnot.”)

skip – ed
(”This may seem random, and it is to a large degree, but I'd rather try a shot in the dark at a submarine at this point than at a person who's contributed more.”)

Eomer - Nessa 2
(”Nessa is still bothering me: she just feels like a wolf. The Ozban kill seems to tie in with it, so I'd be most inclined to kill Nessa today.”)

Shasta – Lottie
(”I don't like Lottie's vote. At all.”)

Pitch - Nessa 3
(”Now, I concur with whoever it was that said it (Shasta, I think) that the sallywagon could point to a wolf among the people leading in the tally before her; which would be me, Zil and Nessa (plus possibly Lottie, but she had only two votes). At the time the sallywagon got rolling for good, Zil and I had three votes each, Nessa four. Leaving myself aside (as I'm obviously biased here), I still don't think Zil looks particularly wolvish (and I think suspecting him because his first post was made too quickly is rather flimsy), whereas Nessa not only was leading the votes, thus in most urgent need to be saved, but there are also the Rikae affair and the Ozzy kill against her. Taking that together, I think I'll stick with my "baddie-baddie-bad-bad" vote from yesterDay.”)

Val – skip
(I think hes trying to be a clever wolf.)

Green – Inzil
(”Leaning bad - he's always driving me nuts because I can't read him at all, but though Lommy's point is almost too easy it makes sense. Three minutes is an awfully short time to read who died and figure all that out.”)

Rikae - Lottie 2
(”For her Kitanna vote and for being a submarine.”)

Lommy - Inzil 2
(”his first post toDay was incredibly fishy and nothing can change that.”)

Rikae - --Lottie 1
Rikae - Inzil 3
(”Ok, what with the psychics and the creepiness of Zil's last post”)

Cailín - Lottie 2
(”Because she seems so eager to wash her hands of all the blood that has been and will be spilled”)

Mac - Lottie 3
(”I could imagine going for Lottie myself (apart from what I said before, her vote for Kitanna is a very easy way out, which could be wolfish).” What he said before was ”Lottie -> Sally(3) (not good)” in a vote analysis and placing her in a list as ”Not really suspicious, but not really innocent either.”)

ed - Lottie 4
(”She seems the shadiest of all. Her Kit vote after the consensus had been to not vote that direction just seems to much like an easy way out.”)

Agan - Nessa 4
(”I don't really suspect any of them but she's the quietest.”)

Legate – Nessa 5
(”Well she is the one I am likely voting, by elimination method, as you can see.”)

Inzil – Lottie 5
(”Legate 180.”)

So Lottie 5, Nessa 5, Inzil 3, Skip 1, Ed 1, Kit 1, Rikae 1.

[A Little Green]

Day 3 votes (known innocents in italics)

Greenie – Inzil
(”Leaning wolf or cobbler at this point. I found him suspicious already before the Legate 180 -episode, and I'm still unconvinced an innocent Zil would have done that.”)

BG – Nessa
(”I have had a feeling about her since the beginning and it's not getting better.”)

Wilwa – Inzil 2
(”His last minute vote was strange (and if he's guilty Nessa does looks pretty bad), and his tone at the beginning of the Day today is really weird. His whole "I'll understand it if you lynch me".”)

Skip – Nessa 2
(”I think the points against her are strong enough for testing out.”)

Mac – Boro
(”Boro worries me a lot. If you have limited time to play, you try to come up with something helpful when you're around, trying to figure out what's going on. The points he does make are not up to his standards. Just compare Boro posts to the posts of time-challenged Skip toDay. Boro hasn't done anything of consequence since my analysis yesterDay, and my mind remains unchanged.”)

Rikae – Boro 2
(”Those top suspects aside, I think I'll actually have to follow the old ball and chain and vote for someone who should be loud, but isn't, and who is making me uneasy, and who I have other reasons to wonder about”)

Nessa – Legate
(”Because of how weirdly he's been acting. I can't explain it too thoroughly until tomorrow, as I have to go now.”)

Inzil – Boro 3
(”And we now have another viable candidate in Boro, whose vote for me on Day was for a rather questionable reason. He doesn't seem to be his usual, aggressive wolf-hunting self, either.”)

Shasta – Inzil 3
(”Elaboration on Inzil/Nessa - honestly, at this point, the pattern's just going to repeat itself again. If one of them don't go today, they're going to be all the discussion will be about tomorrow - which does make me wonder if clever wolves aren't leaving them alive for precisely that reason, but still.” and ”Inzil going after Nessa at this late stage makes me uneasy, almost as if he's preparing a vote for her in advance. My mind's made up.”)

Pitch – Inzil 4
(”Shasta's right, that messy Zil/Nessa business needs to be cleared up toDay. I guess I should stick to my guns and vote Nessa after all, but Zil actually looks worse toDay, if not by much.” and ”Bah. Might as well flip a coin.”)

Cailín – Inzil 5
(”It's a bandwagon, but I concede. There is something up with Inzil. First that analysis of elronds_daughter looks like he was fishing for another easy lynch of a quiet player. Now this sudden vote for Boromir whom he has not mentioned before. His behaviour yesterDay was strange for sure.”)

Manwe – Ed
(”At the moment I am inclined to remain watchful of the extremes, and will vote against the establishment here who seem to have overlooked by and large the players i've mentioned in my past posts. I wish I were the seer in order to confirm a couple of suspicions ive held since the beginning. A wolf hides in the extremes...

++elronds_daughter is someone i've mentioned in my posts, largely popping in to vote only, i'm voting for an extreme.”)

Eomer – Nessa 3
(”I really want to kill Nessa but, like I said earlier, wouldn't they have killed me (or one of the other Nessa voters) if she was guilty? It's quite possible she is the sacrifical wolf.”)

Legate – Nessa 4
(”I am not objecting either of Zil or Nessa, like I said, though if I could, I'd have preferred others... but let's just hope that the death of either of them will bring something good.”)

Agan – Inzil 6
(”Nessa didn't even try to save herself yesterday. Not sure a wolf would do that.”)

Boro – Inzil 7
(”Guess this cements it”)

after DL: Elra – Nessa 5
(”If we're wrong, we're wrong (and that's mostly terrible), but at least my biggest question mark will answered.”)

So Inzil 7, Nessa 4 or 5 (depending on whether or not Elra's vote counts), Boro 3, Elra 1, Legate 1.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Skip

Had a quick look at Mac's long analysis-post and I'm rather disturbed that he seems to regard Nessa as an innocent. Yes she might well be, but frankly, I fail to see how voting or suspecting Nessa (an unknown and ie possible baddie) objectively is much worse than voting and suspecting a now proven innocent. Huh, Mac?

Inzil and Nessa have been mentioned in the same breath or interchangeably a lot yesterDay. (In fact, it might be worth another close look at who did this in the worst way.) I'm almost certain that Nessa is innocent and handed to us as a scapegoat.

Anyway, I never said that voting or suspecting Nessa is worse. That's your addition, and it doesn't make me feel better one bit.

But just to satisfy you, this is roughly the count excluding everything about Nessa:

-9 Shasta -9
-8 Cailín -9+1
-8 Skip -8
-7 Agan -9+2
-6 Boro -6
-6 Greenie -6
-6 Legate -13+7
-6 Rikae -7+1
-4 Pitch -5+1
-1 wilwa -1
0 e_d -3+3

Only real difference is that Pitch looks better.

[A Little Green]

So here you are Skip, the votes of the remaining players, with my comments in italics where I had something to say:

elronds_daughter: Day 1 Pitch (3), Day 2 Lottie (4), Day 3 late Nessa (5)
Just going by the votes, Elra looks like a classic bandwagoner.

Macalaure: Day 1 no vote, Day 2 Lottie (3), Day 3 Boro

Shastanis Althreduin: Day 1 Lottie (2), Day 2 Lottie, Day 3 Inzil (3)
The curious part is that he votes Lottie twice in a row but seemingly for different reasons.

wilwarin538: Day 1 Sally, Day 2 no vote, Day 3 Inzil (2)

Nessa Telrunya: Day 1 Rikae, Day 2 Rikae, Day 3 Legate
At least she can't be blamed for bandwagoning. Every Day, a vote for someone no one else votes.

Pitchwife: Day 1 Nessa (3), Day 2 Nessa (3), Day 3 Inzil (4)
Votes only for the two "enigmas" Nessa and Inzil.

Rikae: Day 1 Wilwa, Day 2 Lottie (2), retraction to Inzil (3), Day 3 Boro (2)

Boromir88: Day 1 Inzil, Day 2 no vote, Day 3 Inzil (7)

A Little Green: Day 1 no vote, Day 2 Inzil, Day 3 Inzil

Skip Spence: Day 1 Sally (2), Day 2 Ed, Day 3 Nessa (2)
Easy votes, I'd say.

Mänwe: Day 1 not present, Day 2 no vote, Day 3 Ed

Legate of Amon Lanc: Day 1 Lottie, Day 2 Nessa (5), Day 3 Nessa (4)
Ends up voting Nessa twice though insists that he would rather have voted for someone else.

Aganzir: Day 1 Sally (5), Day 2 Nessa (4), Day 3 Inzil (6)
Just going by the votes, looks as much of a bandwagoner as Elra - but both two always vote late which we should take into account.

Caílin: Day 1 Agan, Day 2 Lottie (2), Day 3 Inzil (5)
The Day 1 vote for Agan did not have a game-related reason, she was busy. The other two votes look very easy to me.

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Cailín

Coin tosses are bad but a throwaway vote for a silent player is not much better really.

Silent but potentially deadly in my opinion - everyone really has (as has now been mentioned a number of times after last nights lynchings and murders) overlooked the quiet players vote wise.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I would have seconded that, alas, I think it'd be a throwaway vote at this point, now that I see how many people are left to vote. I am not objecting either of Zil or Nessa, like I said, though if I could, I'd have preferred others... but let's just hope that the death of either of them will bring something good.

"Throwaway" because she hasn't "said" as much as other players and so there isn't much to go on? My vote is based on suspicion like anyone elses, not to mention the fact it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted and not to mention the fact that every majority vote has ended in an innocent being lynched so i'm glad i'm not listening to the majority

Just for my own record, people who have been getting votes "wrong", (and who are still alive)

Dead Sally: Wilwa, skip, Agan

Dead Loslote: Shasta, Cailín, Mac, e_d

Dead Inzil: LG, wilwa, Shasta, Pitch, Cailín, Aganzir, Boro

Originally Posted by elronds_daughter

I don't only "pop in"...I'm around all day reading, I just generally don't have any input worth putting in. No lightbulbs, and my non-strategical brain is still getting the hang of this. I'm not nonexistent, I'm just not particularly vocal. Mostly I'm afraid of sticking my foot in my mouth like I did last game.

That's all I meant, my intention was to just highlight your style in this game so far, that you don't post often other than to vote (like me to be fair)..(and you list the reasons why, be they true or not )

~~

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I think it would be a bad idea to lynch her toDay for the same reason I thought it was to lynch her or Inzil yesterDay

I agree. The wolves obviously want us to check her out which points at her being innocent. But even if she's actually a wolf and they're double bluffing, we can afford to wait.

I am wondering about Rikae. She's the first to spring to mind when I think of a wolf genius who could easily manipulate the village with kills like these, but I'm still not sure she would've taken all the actions she has if she's a wolf. My paranoid side would like to lynch her, but I'm not going to do that just because "she could also have done that as a wolf."

Originally Posted by skip

I'm beginning to think your lovely non-downer friend might have a point.

I don't, at least for now. But I'm seriously going to kill Mac & Rikae if they're wolves together. (Oh and I'm also going to be mad if Shasta is a wolf because Sappho was originally assigned to me and I would therefore be a wolf if we hadn't changed it.)

Originally Posted by skip

Guess that Boro as the cobbler makes sense. If he is, do we let him get away with that?

If we lynch an innocent today, it's 5-6 tomorrow. If we lynch a wolf, it's 4-8, with a tiny tiny chance the baddies can't yet communicate. If we lynch the cobbler, it's 4-7.
And if we lynch an innocent today and the cobbler tomorrow (or the other way round), it won't be of any help because it will be 4-4 the day after tomorrow.

If it wasn't for the double kills I'd be willing to try our luck with Boro today, but this time getting rid of the wolves is so much more important I'm not sure.

Originally Posted by Legate

And what of newbie Wolves? I can imagine it.

I'm under the impression Nessa isn't exactly a newbie.

Originally Posted by Legate

If Boro is the Cobbler, then I would say either Rikae and/or Mac and/or Agan are Wolves, or maybe all of them.

What's your explanation for Rikae & Mac voting for their cobbler yesterday when there were more convenient lynch candidates?
Also just saying that if Boro was my cobbler, I could definitely find a more discreet way of contacting him than saying "he reminds me of Cobblemir of old."

Speaking of which... I asked you something, Legate. I'd like to get an answer/clarification.

I need to go soon but I'll be back in some hours.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, looking now at the list of votes, and comparing it to my current suspicions, some of them are generally supported by it, or at least, there is not anything that would place them away. Mac really makes me raise eyebrows now, Elra, Pitch, Cailín too. Aganzir still remains a question. Boro is a Cobbler, if anybody is. Once again thinking of Rikae with her retraction or stuff, I should keep it in mind, that actually makes her look more innocent. I am actually inclined to rather believe in skip's innocence too. Similarly with Greenie herself. Interested about Shasta.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Nessa Telrunya: Day 1 Rikae, Day 2 Rikae, Day 3 Legate
At least she can't be blamed for bandwagoning. Every Day, a vote for someone no one else votes.

Well, one could of course say "that is detaching oneself from the lynch and bandwaggons for innocents", but I am actually of the opinion that it would make Nessa more like independant voter than a Wolf who tries to detach herself from lynches (also given that she voted early).

Originally Posted by Mänwe

"Throwaway" because she hasn't "said" as much as other players and so there isn't much to go on? My vote is based on suspicion like anyone elses, not to mention the fact it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted and not to mention the fact that every majority vote has ended in an innocent being lynched so i'm glad i'm not listening to the majority

No, I meant that voting her at that point was throwaway because it did not seem very likely that elra could be lynched by that time (and I think that's rather clear from the fact that I wanted to vote her myself, but didn't exactly for this reason - actually by the time I voted, it was totally impossible to lynch her). I see your point being brave and noble and keeping your own mind, but at the points when the WWs are annoying us with two kills per Night, if I realise I cannot vote the person I want to, then I would try to vote probably one of those who still can be lynched, one whom I think to be more likely a Wolf. Unless of course I believe them all innocent.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[A Little Green]

Oh, just remembered to ask this: Nessa, what were your reasons for voting Legate yesterDay?


EDIT: x-ed with Legs