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#1 |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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Let's talk about something else.
YesterDay's voting: Let's assume the wolves knew the cobbler's identity. I still wouldn't expect them to risk much to save him. A lot depends on Skip's role - if Skip is evil, Pitch was bus material, of course. wilwa -> elronds_daughter (early vote for a now known innocent. e_d received more votes later, so it's possible wolf-wilwa planned to start an innocent-bandwaggon here) Nessa -> Legate (similar situation as above - does it look better or worse that nobody followed her vote?) Aganzir -> Pitch (first vote for him, at a point when the fuse to the Skip-waggon was already laid, very suspicious if Skip is evil) Boro -> Nessa (that post... *shakes head*... I can't believe Boro would act this way as a wolf, but there is absolutely no reason why he would as an innocent! Anyway, he doesn't give any reasons, so this vote is suspicious.) e_d -> Pitch(2) Shasta -> Skip Legate -> Shasta (hellishly suspicious, of course. Thank god he's cleared) Greenie -> Skip (Skip evil => Greenie innocent / Greenie evil => Skip innocent. That's a good connection to have between two in my question mark group) Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon) Pitch -> Skip(2) (makes Skip look better) Mac -> Pitch(3) (erm.. nobody look at that piece of reasoning, please ![]() Skip -> Pitch(4) (of course) Rikae -> Pitch(5) (an evil Skip would make Rikae look worse, too - then again, the bandwaggons weren't really close anymore) Boro -> e_d(3) ("what the heck", indeed - if this vote had come earlier, it would look extremely evil) Unfortunately, the two most interesting persons (imo, Cailín (no vote), Skip (vote in self defense)) left no trail. Shame... |
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#2 |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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And let's get this over with:
++Mänwe No wolves are going to make the mistake of defending him now anymore anyway, and with a retraction, why wait. |
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#3 | ||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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I think it is more interesting that so many people have labeled Boro as Cobbler, because then the question is, what would the Wolves do in such a case, in relation to what do they think and what Boro really is. I think it might be worth it who thought he was the Cobbler, who opposed it somewhat, and so on. And to try to discern the motives behind it. E.g. if they knew Pitch was their Cobbler and Boro is innocent, then they had no problem with saying he is one. If Boro is one of them, then it would probably make sense for them to try to make him look like a Cobbler (that way sort of downplaying him), or perhaps for some to even try to defend him (but that's far less likely as it's dangerous). If they also thought Boro was the Cobbler, they might have wanted to just as well get rid of him. I guess I will go a bit through the Boro-situation yesterDay.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#4 | ||||||||
Leaf-clad Lady
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EDIT: x-ed with Legate
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#5 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#6 | ||||||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Ugh, sorry, I meant Cobbler, of course
![]() Anyway, I went through all of Boro's posts and I don't know what to think of him. The best would be to hear from him, in any case. I have also read through yesterDay and tried to focus on the Boro-Cobbler situation, and what people said about that - see above, I think it might be helpful to consider how WWs would act towards somebody who was not the Cobbler (and the question remains, who he is, of course), but who was suspected of being the Cobbler (and we can't know whether the WWs, or some of them, did not think him a Cobbler too). Although depending who you think the WWs are, the situation may look different... let's see: Basically the idea of Boro being the cobbler emerged, and once again is an interesting proof of the "herd mentality" (of which I was a part), from Agan's thought in her post #464 (page 12, as are the following): Quote:
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Then goes me (duh! Mesa not like my early yesterDay-conclusions at all, except for the thing about Mac): Quote:
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Pitch himself had said very little of Boro, in the beginning only mentioned him among people he did not suspect earlier and starts to suspect now. For the rest of the Day, especially Mac acted in the way as if Boro's cobblerism was set in stone. What to conclude? Mac's behavior towards the presumed Cobbler makes me wonder the most, he was essentially the one dismissing Boro completely; I also find a bit alarming that toDay all of a sudden (in contrary to his previous fierceness) he did not find it worth it to make a single remark about it. What I am looking forward to the most is to hear from Boro himself, like I said, and what he has to say on the matter. And if you are innocent, Boro, I bid thee to seriously make the effort and post.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#7 |
Laconic Loreman
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Ai! Ai! A madness took me but it has passed.
I attempted to look like the cobbler because I really didn't want to get killed in this game. I don't care so much about being lynched, because if I got lynched it have been my own fault. I just wanted some way to avoid being killed, and possibly make the wolves think I'm the real cobbler, and that way they would tip their hand to me. Now that the real cobbler's dead, my gig is up, and they know I'm innocent. Maybe if I just stuck to my usual Boro serious-accusatory, no-nonsense, posting we would have faired better. But I wanted to get a wolf as fast as possible, so I thought posing as the cobbler would lead me to a few wolves fast. I should have known the wolves wouldn't have so easily trusted me as the cobbler that easily. I seriously do think Nessa's a wolf, because I thought she tipped her hand during my antics, but I was probably too quick to hope that my ploy had worked, when really it seems like an epic fail. I couldn't explain why I was so sure of Nessa yesterday Rikae, because I couldn't think of a way to do it without saying "shh I'm faking cobbler-ism." Now that Pitch is dead though, game's up.
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Fenris Penguin
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#8 |
Leaf-clad Lady
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Boro, if you think Nessawolf bought your cobbler show, do you have some quote on that?
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#9 | |
Shade of Carn Dûm
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Joined together wrote our names upon the page Seven times alliance our loyalties we gave |
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#10 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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I am honestly and wholly innocently not convinced by this Manwe-is-a-discovered-wolf theory. I agree that I may have been too eager to grant Aganzir Known Innocent status (though could it be that the ancient rule - the Seer sees the Cobbler as an Ordinary Villager - confused Shasta here? To group her with his two known innocents shows an extraordinary amount of faith in being able to read her correctly if he did not dream of her). However, Shasta did not even vote Manwe yesterDay: he gave unknown Skip his first vote instead. Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe? Risky business. He must have known he did not have a lot of chances left and with a known wolf and some innocents a reveal in this stage in the game would have been the traditional thing to do.
OK - Manwe looks fairly bad and Shasta's analysis, though it may seem a contrived Seerish version of an analysis, is not unreasonable. Besides, there is no doubt the wolves did find Shasta, but to be honest, Shasta's Legate 180 on the man himself looks pretty Seerish and that together with his faith in some of his Known Innocents might have been enough. Is anyone wondering why elronds_daughter was the second kill? If they were so sure about Shasta, why not get rid of Legate or Rikae? So there. I'd have to be the silliest wolf alive to defend a doomed wolf buddy. Of course, if Manwe does turn out to be innocent I get to feel smug about that at least. The likely scenario of course is that Manwe will be lynched and found to be a hairy nasty wolf and everyone tomorrow (especially the grinning wolves) will agree that I must be his partner desperately trying to save him. I'm not interested in saving Manwe. I distrust him as much as I can and should distrust my fellow players. Let's be careful though and not take things for granted. My list The ones I think are our wolves: Skip Wilwa Macalaure Manwe The ones I think could be our wolves: Nessa Boro Greenie Innocents: Aganzir Rikae Legate |
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#11 | ||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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In any case, it is not 100% sure that he dreamed of Mänwe, but likely. And I think it would be really far worse to lose because of ignoring Shasta's dream than losing because we misinterpretated it. Unless it was some sort of trap for the Wolves to lure them out or whatnot... but that'd be rather risky for him, I'd say. Anyway, off to lunch, will be back still in a while.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#12 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#13 | |||||||
Laconic Loreman
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Now, what I know from Shasta's past seer experiences is he will always leave a clue to who his dreams were, and they're usually not some crypto-graph thing that's impossible to figure out. He always points to his dreams and he's far from confusing/sending mixed messages. So his dreams are there somewhere.
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It's possible Rikae was, since she's separated from Mac, Kit, and Agan, but what he says looks pretty inconclusive. Also, he seems more commentating on what's been happening to Pitch being heavily suspected, and not pointing to who he dreamed of Post 76. Quote:
Shasta votes Lottie, Day 1. I think it's clear enough that for his first dream, Shasta did not know any wolves, and had not dreamed of Pitch as the cobbler. From the looks, possibly Rikae or Agan, who he remained positive about throughout the day. His feeling good about Mac, Kit, and Legate up to this point, looks based off how they were posting and agreeing with what they were saying. Day 2. Post 234. It's long, and commenting towards a lot of people. I won't quote it but, it confirms he's trusting Rikae, and he's starting to find Legate suspicious. (It then makes sense, and fits in line that he would dream of Legate asap) Post 252. It doesn't seem like Shasta had a wolf at this point either. He "feels no-nonsense bad" about Legate, but that's purely on Legate's posting. Quote:
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Why are we assuming he's dreamed of Manwe? When he begins yesterday with no one in his "red" meter?
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Fenris Penguin
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#14 | |
shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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![]() (No, I'm not accusing Cailin. Not yet anyway.) Have to say this though: I'm beginning to feel a bit better about this. Sure, the wolves are very much in the driving seat still, but if we nail a Män-wolf tonight, and a Boro-wolf tomorrow (or a who-ever wolf), I can see a light at the end of the tunnel. Then we'd even have margin of error, right? I'm going to re-read yesterDay, see if I find anything interesting.
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#15 | ||
Shade of Carn Dûm
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Your 'best bets' will doom you all.
You consider two votes a bandwagon? Will you consider that she was a known innocent to us all only as of this morning? I suspected her as much as you had Loslote whom you pressed to lynch on the second day, that was more of a bandwagon then a vote for e_d.
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~~ Gads! I failed too.
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"I am, I fear, a most unsatisfactory person."
- (Letter #124 To Sir Stanley Unwin) |
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#16 | |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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Again, Manwe may be our best option and if that is what you and Rikae decide, that's what we will do. Also his latest post does not make me feel better about him. It's just that Macalaure's (and to a certain extent Aganzir's) absolute condemnation of Manwe looks suspicious. Last edited by Cailín; 01-12-2011 at 06:48 AM. Reason: crossed with Skip |
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