WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Macalaure]

Let's talk about something else.

YesterDay's voting:

Let's assume the wolves knew the cobbler's identity. I still wouldn't expect them to risk much to save him. A lot depends on Skip's role - if Skip is evil, Pitch was bus material, of course.

wilwa -> elronds_daughter (early vote for a now known innocent. e_d received more votes later, so it's possible wolf-wilwa planned to start an innocent-bandwaggon here)
Nessa -> Legate (similar situation as above - does it look better or worse that nobody followed her vote?)
Aganzir -> Pitch (first vote for him, at a point when the fuse to the Skip-waggon was already laid, very suspicious if Skip is evil)
Boro -> Nessa (that post... *shakes head*... I can't believe Boro would act this way as a wolf, but there is absolutely no reason why he would as an innocent! Anyway, he doesn't give any reasons, so this vote is suspicious.)
e_d -> Pitch(2)
Shasta -> Skip
Legate -> Shasta (hellishly suspicious, of course. Thank god he's cleared)
Greenie -> Skip (Skip evil => Greenie innocent / Greenie evil => Skip innocent. That's a good connection to have between two in my question mark group)
Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)
Pitch -> Skip(2) (makes Skip look better)
Mac -> Pitch(3) (erm.. nobody look at that piece of reasoning, please )
Skip -> Pitch(4) (of course)
Rikae -> Pitch(5) (an evil Skip would make Rikae look worse, too - then again, the bandwaggons weren't really close anymore)
Boro -> e_d(3) ("what the heck", indeed - if this vote had come earlier, it would look extremely evil)

Unfortunately, the two most interesting persons (imo, Cailín (no vote), Skip (vote in self defense)) left no trail. Shame...

[Macalaure]

And let's get this over with:

++Mänwe

No wolves are going to make the mistake of defending him now anymore anyway, and with a retraction, why wait.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I don't think it matters much because both Kitanna and me are/were innocent, but he was probably the most upset about Kit's reveal which might suggest his having dreamt of her... But he also kept listing me as innocent so I don't know.

It matters for us, of course, because unlike you, we don't know if you are innocent. But yea, whatever.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Let's assume the wolves knew the cobbler's identity. I still wouldn't expect them to risk much to save him. A lot depends on Skip's role - if Skip is evil, Pitch was bus material, of course.

Once again we don't really know if the Wolves knew for sure that Pitch was the Wolf. The Cobbler is sending them clues, but if e.g. neither Pitch nor Boro's name appeared among the names sent to them, and they had suspected Boro might be Cobbler as well as we did, then who knows... I say you jump too quickly to conclusions.

I think it is more interesting that so many people have labeled Boro as Cobbler, because then the question is, what would the Wolves do in such a case, in relation to what do they think and what Boro really is. I think it might be worth it who thought he was the Cobbler, who opposed it somewhat, and so on. And to try to discern the motives behind it. E.g. if they knew Pitch was their Cobbler and Boro is innocent, then they had no problem with saying he is one. If Boro is one of them, then it would probably make sense for them to try to make him look like a Cobbler (that way sort of downplaying him), or perhaps for some to even try to defend him (but that's far less likely as it's dangerous). If they also thought Boro was the Cobbler, they might have wanted to just as well get rid of him.

I guess I will go a bit through the Boro-situation yesterDay.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

I think Legate is pretty much clear now, and I would say Rikae is too. I'm tempted to say he dreamed of me too, but that's only because I know I'm innocent - he never said so explicitly.
Currently I think our best course is to lynch Mänwe. Shasta's case against him seemed fabricated in the sense that he interpreted everything Mänwe said wolfishly, and something must have tipped the wolves off.

I obviously agree about Legate. I'm unsure about Rikae, and I'm pretty sure he didn't dream of you. It would be odd to keep calling a dreamed innocent a probable cobbler. I agree though that lynching Mänwe is our best bet toDay.

Originally Posted by Mac

The Green-Yellow-Red list in #460 is clearer:
Legate, Aganzir, Rikae dreamt of and innocent.

I'm not sure if I'd give as much weight to this as you do, given that Shasta said the list was about who he doesn't want to vote, and Agan was there because he thought she was probably the cobbler.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Don't worry, Agan, I wouldn't. It was just a quick first response because I am quite tired and was planning to go to bed - but wanted to let people know I am back. Of course, then I got stuck looking at wedding cakes and such, so now I'm still chatting.

Cailín! First it was Valier talking cute about the little Maia and thus making it impossible to suspect her, now you're doing the same by talking about wedding cakes!

Originally Posted by Legate

While I am at that, I must say I was totally shocked when Pitch turned out to be a Cobbler, as we have mostly thought that Mister Boro it is. So what shall we do with the drunken sailor?

Yes, Boro is an interesting one. I can see no reason for a Borordo to post the way he did late yesterDay. Considering that he's still alive makes me seriously suspicious of him. As for Pitch, the funny part is that I found some comment of his cobblerish yesterDay, but later on forgot about it myself! Which is exceedingly embarrassing.

Originally Posted by Agan

I actually went through the thread during the night to see Pitch's interactions and found two people I thought he could've been hinting with. Wanna guess? Rikae and Legate. I now wonder if they hadn't managed to identify him, or hadn't dropped him any hints that would've helped him identify them. His guilt probably points at Nessa's innocence though.

I'm still not sure of Nessa. Obviously Pitch thought she was an ordo, but then most of us did put her and Inzil in the same category at that time.

Originally Posted by Mac

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.

As others have pointed out, this logic doesn't quite hold water.

Originally Posted by Agan

I'm willing to bet it wasn't Lommy or Mac, he was simply too undecided about them. Eomer seems the most likely to me - despite his listing me as green I don't think he dreamed of me. The seer wouldn't say "probably the cobbler" of a dreamed of innocent.

I pretty much agree with this.

Originally Posted by Mac

wilwa -> elronds_daughter (early vote for a now known innocent. e_d received more votes later, so it's possible wolf-wilwa planned to start an innocent-bandwaggon here)
Nessa -> Legate (similar situation as above - does it look better or worse that nobody followed her vote?)
Aganzir -> Pitch (first vote for him, at a point when the fuse to the Skip-waggon was already laid, very suspicious if Skip is evil)
Boro -> Nessa (that post... *shakes head*... I can't believe Boro would act this way as a wolf, but there is absolutely no reason why he would as an innocent! Anyway, he doesn't give any reasons, so this vote is suspicious.)
e_d -> Pitch(2)
Shasta -> Skip
Legate -> Shasta (hellishly suspicious, of course. Thank god he's cleared)
Greenie -> Skip (Skip evil => Greenie innocent / Greenie evil => Skip innocent. That's a good connection to have between two in my question mark group)
Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)
Pitch -> Skip(2) (makes Skip look better)
Mac -> Pitch(3) (erm.. nobody look at that piece of reasoning, please )
Skip -> Pitch(4) (of course)
Rikae -> Pitch(5) (an evil Skip would make Rikae look worse, too - then again, the bandwaggons weren't really close anymore)
Boro -> e_d(3) ("what the heck", indeed - if this vote had come earlier, it would look extremely evil)

So basically a lot depends on Skip's role, doesn't it? If Skip is evil, Agan and Mac look bad. I'm still rather suspicious of Skip, but like Mac said the fact Pitch voted for him makes him look better, or else Pitch was mistaken. I'm not sure about Mac's thoughts on Wilwa and Nessa.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

Once again we don't really know if the Wolves knew for sure that Pitch was the Wolf.

Err?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Err?

Ugh, sorry, I meant Cobbler, of course

Anyway, I went through all of Boro's posts and I don't know what to think of him. The best would be to hear from him, in any case.

I have also read through yesterDay and tried to focus on the Boro-Cobbler situation, and what people said about that - see above, I think it might be helpful to consider how WWs would act towards somebody who was not the Cobbler (and the question remains, who he is, of course), but who was suspected of being the Cobbler (and we can't know whether the WWs, or some of them, did not think him a Cobbler too). Although depending who you think the WWs are, the situation may look different... let's see:

Basically the idea of Boro being the cobbler emerged, and once again is an interesting proof of the "herd mentality" (of which I was a part), from Agan's thought in her post #464 (page 12, as are the following):

Originally Posted by Agan

I think Boro is the cobbler (or a wolf posing as one, but it seems unlikelier). He is being useless and he knows it. I've been disinclined to go after him thus far because I thought he might be a gifted, but we're now four days into the game and I find it impossible he'd be so blatantly unhelpful if innocent.

followed by Mac:

Originally Posted by Mac

I wish I would have thought of that yesterDay, but you're right. Certainly his behaviour toDay strongly suggests it.

And immediately in the next post by skip:

Originally Posted by Skip

Edit: Guess that Boro as the cobbler makes sense. If he is, do we let him get away with that?

Which is actually moving from words to deeds - rather alarming, in itself. Especially if Boro is innocent and the WWs knew he is not the Cobbler, then skip-wolf could be here calling for the possibility of getting rid of Boro. Or something.

Then goes me (duh! Mesa not like my early yesterDay-conclusions at all, except for the thing about Mac):

Originally Posted by Legate

If Boro is the Cobbler, then I would say either Rikae and/or Mac and/or Agan are Wolves, or maybe all of them.

And then we continued talking with more or less presuming he is one (at least from my part). Meanwhile, other players commented on that idea...

Originally Posted by wilwa

Boro could be the Cobbler, he's likely not Gifted or a Wolf because he would be far more helpful. Perhaps he's a bored ordo? But I don't remember Boro ever acting that way as an Ordo. So yes, Cobbler seems the most likely. And according to Agan's math (Math?!? she must be a wolf! ) lynching the Cobbler does no good, so we leave him be.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Boro - Possible cobbler. I have a hard time seeing him as a wolf, he seems too uninvolved and too disinclined to manipulate. Could be bored ordo as well, but then, I remember Borordos who have been really involved and in the middle of things.

At that point, Rikae still kept asking him questions as if everything was normal, which makes me think that it supports her innocence.

Pitch himself had said very little of Boro, in the beginning only mentioned him among people he did not suspect earlier and starts to suspect now.

For the rest of the Day, especially Mac acted in the way as if Boro's cobblerism was set in stone.

What to conclude? Mac's behavior towards the presumed Cobbler makes me wonder the most, he was essentially the one dismissing Boro completely; I also find a bit alarming that toDay all of a sudden (in contrary to his previous fierceness) he did not find it worth it to make a single remark about it.

What I am looking forward to the most is to hear from Boro himself, like I said, and what he has to say on the matter. And if you are innocent, Boro, I bid thee to seriously make the effort and post.

[Boromir88]

Ai! Ai! A madness took me but it has passed.

I attempted to look like the cobbler because I really didn't want to get killed in this game. I don't care so much about being lynched, because if I got lynched it have been my own fault. I just wanted some way to avoid being killed, and possibly make the wolves think I'm the real cobbler, and that way they would tip their hand to me.

Now that the real cobbler's dead, my gig is up, and they know I'm innocent. Maybe if I just stuck to my usual Boro serious-accusatory, no-nonsense, posting we would have faired better. But I wanted to get a wolf as fast as possible, so I thought posing as the cobbler would lead me to a few wolves fast. I should have known the wolves wouldn't have so easily trusted me as the cobbler that easily.

I seriously do think Nessa's a wolf, because I thought she tipped her hand during my antics, but I was probably too quick to hope that my ploy had worked, when really it seems like an epic fail. I couldn't explain why I was so sure of Nessa yesterday Rikae, because I couldn't think of a way to do it without saying "shh I'm faking cobbler-ism." Now that Pitch is dead though, game's up.

[A Little Green]

Boro, if you think Nessawolf bought your cobbler show, do you have some quote on that?

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Ai! Ai! A madness took me but it has passed.

I attempted to look like the cobbler because I really didn't want to get killed in this game. I don't care so much about being lynched, because if I got lynched it have been my own fault. I just wanted some way to avoid being killed, and possibly make the wolves think I'm the real cobbler, and that way they would tip their hand to me.

Now that the real cobbler's dead, my gig is up, and they know I'm innocent. Maybe if I just stuck to my usual Boro serious-accusatory, no-nonsense, posting we would have faired better. But I wanted to get a wolf as fast as possible, so I thought posing as the cobbler would lead me to a few wolves fast. I should have known the wolves wouldn't have so easily trusted me as the cobbler that easily.

I seriously do think Nessa's a wolf, because I thought she tipped her hand during my antics, but I was probably too quick to hope that my ploy had worked, when really it seems like an epic fail. I couldn't explain why I was so sure of Nessa yesterday Rikae, because I couldn't think of a way to do it without saying "shh I'm faking cobbler-ism." Now that Pitch is dead though, game's up.

I don't recall ever voting or suspecting you, goodsir. Where on earth did you get that idea?

[Cailín]

I am honestly and wholly innocently not convinced by this Manwe-is-a-discovered-wolf theory. I agree that I may have been too eager to grant Aganzir Known Innocent status (though could it be that the ancient rule - the Seer sees the Cobbler as an Ordinary Villager - confused Shasta here? To group her with his two known innocents shows an extraordinary amount of faith in being able to read her correctly if he did not dream of her). However, Shasta did not even vote Manwe yesterDay: he gave unknown Skip his first vote instead. Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe? Risky business. He must have known he did not have a lot of chances left and with a known wolf and some innocents a reveal in this stage in the game would have been the traditional thing to do.

OK - Manwe looks fairly bad and Shasta's analysis, though it may seem a contrived Seerish version of an analysis, is not unreasonable. Besides, there is no doubt the wolves did find Shasta, but to be honest, Shasta's Legate 180 on the man himself looks pretty Seerish and that together with his faith in some of his Known Innocents might have been enough. Is anyone wondering why elronds_daughter was the second kill? If they were so sure about Shasta, why not get rid of Legate or Rikae?

So there. I'd have to be the silliest wolf alive to defend a doomed wolf buddy. Of course, if Manwe does turn out to be innocent I get to feel smug about that at least. The likely scenario of course is that Manwe will be lynched and found to be a hairy nasty wolf and everyone tomorrow (especially the grinning wolves) will agree that I must be his partner desperately trying to save him.

I'm not interested in saving Manwe. I distrust him as much as I can and should distrust my fellow players. Let's be careful though and not take things for granted.

My list

The ones I think are our wolves:

Skip
Wilwa
Macalaure
Manwe

The ones I think could be our wolves:

Nessa
Boro
Greenie

Innocents:

Aganzir
Rikae
Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Cailín

However, Shasta did not even vote Manwe yesterDay: he gave unknown Skip his first vote instead. Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe? Risky business. He must have known he did not have a lot of chances left and with a known wolf and some innocents a reveal in this stage in the game would have been the traditional thing to do.

Well, it is true that his vote came at a point when there were votes for like four different people, none of them really being among his top suspects (they were votes for LRH, me, Pitch and Nessa). Earlier, Shasta had said about his suspects:

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I really want to vote for Manwe. I could vote Boro or Skip, I suppose. Probably not Legate, though.

He could have voted for Mänwe at that point, theoretically, but there has been quite a large debate before about who wants to vote whom and people did not really want to vote Mänwe. So I think he just went with the one of his suspects who seemed likely to get lynched.

In any case, it is not 100% sure that he dreamed of Mänwe, but likely. And I think it would be really far worse to lose because of ignoring Shasta's dream than losing because we misinterpretated it. Unless it was some sort of trap for the Wolves to lure them out or whatnot... but that'd be rather risky for him, I'd say.

Anyway, off to lunch, will be back still in a while.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

In any case, it is not 100% sure that he dreamed of Mänwe, but likely. And I think it would be really far worse to lose because of ignoring Shasta's dream than losing because we misinterpretated it. Unless it was some sort of trap for the Wolves to lure them out or whatnot... but that'd be rather risky for him, I'd say.

I don't think I get your trap for the Wolves -theory. If suspecting Manwë was a trap to lure the wolves out, it obviously worked, but wouldn't that mean Manwë is a wolf? I'm confused.

[Boromir88]

Now, what I know from Shasta's past seer experiences is he will always leave a clue to who his dreams were, and they're usually not some crypto-graph thing that's impossible to figure out. He always points to his dreams and he's far from confusing/sending mixed messages. So his dreams are there somewhere.

Post 43.

Okay, so we have a couple things to look at. Rikae is being... less talkative and more mysterious than usual, but then it's Rikae, so I don't know how much of that is readable. We have Pitch, who pinged my personal radar from the moment he said "havens forfend we do something like the Shasta lynch again!", but that's a Lottie reason so I'm going to need more to go on. And besides that, he's suspected by an awful lot of people so far, considering. From personal experience as a wolf I know that wolves don't need to do much to push a Day 1 bandwagon right into an innocent, but it's something to look at.

Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan (as far as I can tell they've been the most logical and down to earth so far). No read on Sally, which frankly bothers me a bit.

And here's what I mean about Shasta, he probably didn't dream about Mac, Kitanna, and Agan. Even if he feels good about them, the way that he lumped all 3 together as "looking good," I doubt he had dreamed of any of them first night.

It's possible Rikae was, since she's separated from Mac, Kit, and Agan, but what he says looks pretty inconclusive. Also, he seems more commentating on what's been happening to Pitch being heavily suspected, and not pointing to who he dreamed of

Post 76.

I'm still liking Mac, but I think he might be making altogether too big a deal about Agan's post. It makes sense to me (but that might just be because I was just a wolf with her and know how she thinks ).

On the other hand, Legate I think I'm good with because of his last post. There were several things about Lottie I wasn't really liking, but was hard-pressed to actually put those things into words. Legate managed quite nicely. When does Lottie "not really have suspicions"? Lottie always suspects someone. It bothers me that she apparently doesn't right now.

Disagrees with Mac about Agan, but still thinks he looks good. So, still, highly doubtful Mac was Shasta's night 1 dream. Feels good about Legate, but because of his last post, so I don't think he dreamed of Legate at this point.

Shasta votes Lottie, Day 1.

I think it's clear enough that for his first dream, Shasta did not know any wolves, and had not dreamed of Pitch as the cobbler. From the looks, possibly Rikae or Agan, who he remained positive about throughout the day. His feeling good about Mac, Kit, and Legate up to this point, looks based off how they were posting and agreeing with what they were saying.

Day 2.

Post 234. It's long, and commenting towards a lot of people. I won't quote it but, it confirms he's trusting Rikae, and he's starting to find Legate suspicious. (It then makes sense, and fits in line that he would dream of Legate asap)

Post 252.

It doesn't seem like Shasta had a wolf at this point either. He "feels no-nonsense bad" about Legate, but that's purely on Legate's posting.

Legate - His flipflopping hardcore on Inzil and his refusal to take a stance on anyone so far without qualifying it in some form or fasion makes me think he's a waffling wolf, especially since I also moderately suspect Inzil (distancing?). His reaction to Skip's joke is something I disagree with Agan on - I think it looked incredibly forced, and while that in itself wouldn't be a reason to suspect him, it certainly doesn't help matters.

Looking at who he "feels good about." Lommy and Cailin he basically says the same thing about, there are no warning signs "yet." Doesn't look like he had dreamed any of them. Also, on Mac, he says he hopes that he's not giving Mac a "pass" simply for sounding logical. So, he hasn't dreamed of Mac either.

On Eomer:

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.

Possibly, but he's dead now.
On Agan:

Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.

This looks like a really elaborate defense, after earlier saying he thought there was wolvish involvement in the sally-wagon. About Agan's vote, he makes the point to say it's the "least-wolvish of the lot."

On Rikae:

Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.

So, again it looks like Day 2, Shasta has not dreamed of a wolf, but his continued defenses for Rikae and Agan, he at least dreamed of one of them. His biggest suspect on Day 2 was Legate, and this leads to Day 3, where I have no doubt he had dreamed of Legate the following night.

Post 410.

Legate, after rereading, is not as suspicious as I thought he was. (Sorry!)

He also states he will probably vote for Inzil or Nessa because of the 3 days of "crap" about it, but there's no doubt he had dreamed of Legate, and had no wolf up to this point. So, moving onto the next day.

Why are we assuming he's dreamed of Manwe? When he begins yesterday with no one in his "red" meter?

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Cailín

So there. I'd have to be the silliest wolf alive to defend a doomed wolf buddy.

Hey now, I think you are being a tad harsh on yourself. I've seen sillier wolves.

(No, I'm not accusing Cailin. Not yet anyway.)

Have to say this though: I'm beginning to feel a bit better about this. Sure, the wolves are very much in the driving seat still, but if we nail a Män-wolf tonight, and a Boro-wolf tomorrow (or a who-ever wolf), I can see a light at the end of the tunnel. Then we'd even have margin of error, right?

I'm going to re-read yesterDay, see if I find anything interesting.

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)

You consider two votes a bandwagon? Will you consider that she was a known innocent to us all only as of this morning? I suspected her as much as you had Loslote whom you pressed to lynch on the second day, that was more of a bandwagon then a vote for e_d.

~~

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Once again a note about Mänwe... he sounds to me not like a Wolf, but like a truly honestly speaking innocent, being honest to the point of it doing harm to him. I mean, if it is a honest need to explain himself, I can very well imagine it...

QFT

~~

Originally Posted by Cailín

Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe?

A fair point- I would say Shasta was preparing to dream of me last night and hadn't dreamt of me before. Being killed i'm not sure if Nog would have accepted a name to be dreamt about? If he did...then Shasta is turning in his grave at the possibility of me being lynched.

~~

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I attempted to look like the cobbler because I really didn't want to get killed in this game.

Gads! I failed too.

[Cailín]

He could have voted for Mänwe at that point, theoretically, but there has been quite a large debate before about who wants to vote whom and people did not really want to vote Mänwe. So I think he just went with the one of his suspects who seemed likely to get lynched.

Fair enough, but I just have doubts. Shasta knew he was going to die any minute. The wolves had / have a terrible advantage at the moment that would likely be the end of us: the double kill. With one wolf down, and a couple of known innocents, he would have bought us Days. If I had been the Seer and found a wolf in this stage in the game, I would have pushed very strongly for a Manwe lynch and very possibly revealed my true identity. I realise this is unfair, because Shasta is more experienced (I have only been the Seer once and I have not played regularly for years) but it seems so obvious. When Shasta voted Skip, Skip had zero votes and there were many votes still to follow. No reason for Shasta to despair yet.

Again, Manwe may be our best option and if that is what you and Rikae decide, that's what we will do. Also his latest post does not make me feel better about him. It's just that Macalaure's (and to a certain extent Aganzir's) absolute condemnation of Manwe looks suspicious.