WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Skip

Had a quick look at Mac's long analysis-post and I'm rather disturbed that he seems to regard Nessa as an innocent. Yes she might well be, but frankly, I fail to see how voting or suspecting Nessa (an unknown and ie possible baddie) objectively is much worse than voting and suspecting a now proven innocent. Huh, Mac?

Inzil and Nessa have been mentioned in the same breath or interchangeably a lot yesterDay. (In fact, it might be worth another close look at who did this in the worst way.) I'm almost certain that Nessa is innocent and handed to us as a scapegoat.

Anyway, I never said that voting or suspecting Nessa is worse. That's your addition, and it doesn't make me feel better one bit.

But just to satisfy you, this is roughly the count excluding everything about Nessa:

-9 Shasta -9
-8 Cailín -9+1
-8 Skip -8
-7 Agan -9+2
-6 Boro -6
-6 Greenie -6
-6 Legate -13+7
-6 Rikae -7+1
-4 Pitch -5+1
-1 wilwa -1
0 e_d -3+3

Only real difference is that Pitch looks better.

[A Little Green]

So here you are Skip, the votes of the remaining players, with my comments in italics where I had something to say:

elronds_daughter: Day 1 Pitch (3), Day 2 Lottie (4), Day 3 late Nessa (5)
Just going by the votes, Elra looks like a classic bandwagoner.

Macalaure: Day 1 no vote, Day 2 Lottie (3), Day 3 Boro

Shastanis Althreduin: Day 1 Lottie (2), Day 2 Lottie, Day 3 Inzil (3)
The curious part is that he votes Lottie twice in a row but seemingly for different reasons.

wilwarin538: Day 1 Sally, Day 2 no vote, Day 3 Inzil (2)

Nessa Telrunya: Day 1 Rikae, Day 2 Rikae, Day 3 Legate
At least she can't be blamed for bandwagoning. Every Day, a vote for someone no one else votes.

Pitchwife: Day 1 Nessa (3), Day 2 Nessa (3), Day 3 Inzil (4)
Votes only for the two "enigmas" Nessa and Inzil.

Rikae: Day 1 Wilwa, Day 2 Lottie (2), retraction to Inzil (3), Day 3 Boro (2)

Boromir88: Day 1 Inzil, Day 2 no vote, Day 3 Inzil (7)

A Little Green: Day 1 no vote, Day 2 Inzil, Day 3 Inzil

Skip Spence: Day 1 Sally (2), Day 2 Ed, Day 3 Nessa (2)
Easy votes, I'd say.

Mänwe: Day 1 not present, Day 2 no vote, Day 3 Ed

Legate of Amon Lanc: Day 1 Lottie, Day 2 Nessa (5), Day 3 Nessa (4)
Ends up voting Nessa twice though insists that he would rather have voted for someone else.

Aganzir: Day 1 Sally (5), Day 2 Nessa (4), Day 3 Inzil (6)
Just going by the votes, looks as much of a bandwagoner as Elra - but both two always vote late which we should take into account.

Caílin: Day 1 Agan, Day 2 Lottie (2), Day 3 Inzil (5)
The Day 1 vote for Agan did not have a game-related reason, she was busy. The other two votes look very easy to me.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, looking now at the list of votes, and comparing it to my current suspicions, some of them are generally supported by it, or at least, there is not anything that would place them away. Mac really makes me raise eyebrows now, Elra, Pitch, Cailín too. Aganzir still remains a question. Boro is a Cobbler, if anybody is. Once again thinking of Rikae with her retraction or stuff, I should keep it in mind, that actually makes her look more innocent. I am actually inclined to rather believe in skip's innocence too. Similarly with Greenie herself. Interested about Shasta.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Nessa Telrunya: Day 1 Rikae, Day 2 Rikae, Day 3 Legate
At least she can't be blamed for bandwagoning. Every Day, a vote for someone no one else votes.

Well, one could of course say "that is detaching oneself from the lynch and bandwaggons for innocents", but I am actually of the opinion that it would make Nessa more like independant voter than a Wolf who tries to detach herself from lynches (also given that she voted early).

Originally Posted by Mänwe

"Throwaway" because she hasn't "said" as much as other players and so there isn't much to go on? My vote is based on suspicion like anyone elses, not to mention the fact it looked rather clear everyone had it in for Inzil before I voted and not to mention the fact that every majority vote has ended in an innocent being lynched so i'm glad i'm not listening to the majority

No, I meant that voting her at that point was throwaway because it did not seem very likely that elra could be lynched by that time (and I think that's rather clear from the fact that I wanted to vote her myself, but didn't exactly for this reason - actually by the time I voted, it was totally impossible to lynch her). I see your point being brave and noble and keeping your own mind, but at the points when the WWs are annoying us with two kills per Night, if I realise I cannot vote the person I want to, then I would try to vote probably one of those who still can be lynched, one whom I think to be more likely a Wolf. Unless of course I believe them all innocent.

EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I'm under the impression Nessa isn't exactly a newbie.

I believe this is just her, like, third game or something?

Originally Posted by Agan

What's your explanation for Rikae & Mac voting for their cobbler yesterday when there were more convenient lynch candidates?

Well, maybe they thought he won't be going, or did not know, or did not care so much for lynching the Cobbler.

But I am really having contradictory thoughts about both of them. Right now thinking actually better of Rikae because of her voting, though generally I would consider her more suspicious by her posting. Mac, on the other hand, has - or had - rather sensible posting and all, but lately I am wondering if he has not been misleading us all the time. This is just giving me a headache.

Originally Posted by Agan

Speaking of which... I asked you something, Legate. I'd like to get an answer/clarification.

Yes, I didn't have time to answer it yesterDay. But actually not sure what you mean by it. You didn't say you are a Wolf, you said that you are innocent because you wouldn't kill Ozban. And that's what I think, so I said yes, that's one of the main reasons why I am not suspecting you (among several others, of course).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Now a sort of general summary:

More like innocent
Aganzir
Rikae
Greenie
Skip
Mänwe

More like suspicious
LRH

More like Cobbler
Boro

No idea or not sure
wilwa
Nessa

More like suspicious, though I don't have much of an idea
Pitchwife
Cailín
(I am really worried about these two and would like to see them POSTING!)

Can be either a Wolf or innocent (brilliant idea, isn't it)
Mac
Shasta

The point with the last two basically is: I give myself the question "there has been somebody fooling us all the time. Now, who was it." These two are in some way suspicious, but in some way I think that perhaps I am just suggesting something to myself. With Shasta, I am waiting for him to post (see my early posts toDay). With Mac, I just don't know.

[Aganzir]

Sorry it took me way too long. Blame Lommy, she was posting pictures on Facebook.

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, maybe they thought he won't be going, or did not know, or did not care so much for lynching the Cobbler.

I don't think your reasoning is very sound. Boro's being the cobbler isn't a proof that Mac & Rikae are innocent, but it certainly doesn't make their guilt more likely unlike you claimed.

Originally Posted by Legate

You didn't say you are a Wolf, you said that you are innocent because you wouldn't kill Ozban. And that's what I think, so I said yes, that's one of the main reasons why I am not suspecting you (among several others, of course).

No I didn't. You said you couldn't see good enough a reason for me to kill Oz on night 1, and I answered that the unlikeliness of it would have been a good reason for me to do it. But never mind, I was just wondering for a while if you were trying to drop a hint.

Originally Posted by wilwa

But I don't remember Boro ever acting that way as an Ordo.

Me neither, but I seem to remember him being exactly like that as the cobbler. Making long posts that basically say nothing.

Originally Posted by wilwa

We can't totally assume the Wolves know their Cobbler (and hope that they don't).

True but it's safer to assume they know her.

I'm torn about wilwa. She looks pretty innocent and arguments in an innocent way, but that doesn't mean she's innocent. I think she's one of those people who just have an innocent mindset whatever her role... Last time I played she was my cobbler, and we considered killing her almost every night because she just looked so darn innocent (fortunately we didn't).

I'm more concerned about skip again. He just feels way way off.

Originally Posted by Nessa

After the Night kills, Legate sounds astoundingly like a gloating wolf.

Why would a wolf gloat when they still haven't got a gifted?

Originally Posted by Legate

because what you said could have been a hint to a cobbler for all I know.

A wolf doesn't need to hint to the cobbler at this point, especially if the wolf is Rikae (or someone else who can prioritize things correctly).

Shasta's analysis of Mänwe looks reasonable but it's also very easy to cast suspicion on a quiet player.

I know I'm flip-flopping (and will probably continue to do so till she's dead) but I feel considerably better about Rikae now that people are questioning her activities.

Originally Posted by skip

You accuse the people who went with the Inzil/Nessa trail, regardless of who they accuse (gives them negative points) and credit those who stayed away from it, that's the point.

I see the logic in that even though it's likely not all the wolves took part in it. If Nessa is innocent (and I'm inclined to think so at the moment, at least enough to not vote for her today) it would be very convenient for the wolves to get the two of them lynched, therefore at least a couple of them were probably pushing it.

Originally Posted by skip

Because if you vote for the cobbler and not an ordo, there is no vindictive innocent to deal with the next Day?

Mac had been suspected so little that being part of a bandwagon against an innocent would hardly have got him lynched yet.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Like Eomer said yesterDay, chances are high they've already dreamed her (I certainly would have if it was me), and if they haven't, I think they should.

I can't believe I'm getting into this discussion (it's entirely different to suggest the seer come out than tell her who to dream of) but I wouldn't bother to dream of Nessa right now - basically everyone has talked about her, while there are still a lot of submarines.

I wouldn't vote for Boro today just because I find it more likely he's the cobbler.

Originally Posted by Mänwe

I asked it to draw attention to the fact that a suspicious character might lie in these quiet players

To be fair I think we all know that already, but now it's a too late to lynch the quiet just to be on the safe side. It would be very convenient for a wolf to try to make us do exactly that, though.

Originally Posted by Mänwe

Because that day I didn't consider him a wolf.

And have things changed?

Originally Posted by Mänwe

At the point I voted, in my mind it seemed clear that Inzil would be the one to go, regardless I would not have voted for him as I said to Legate, I held no suspicion over him.

How did you know that? It was pretty even between Nessa and him till the end.

I really don't like skip's Greenie analysis - I'm not convinced of Greenie's innocence either, but it looks nastily opportunistic even though he says he won't vote for her today.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I should'a got a PM from the mod
I should'a learned to make them shoes
look at these baddies, decimating villagers, man
wish I could be one.

Seconded. Rikae when will we be wolves together?

I feel like voting Pitch or skip today. Not Boro (if we kill a wolf today, we can lynch him tomorrow). I could imagine myself going for Cailín, Shasta, ed and Mänwe... but rather one of the first two.

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

To be fair I think we all know that already, but now it's a too late to lynch the quiet just to be on the safe side. It would be very convenient for a wolf to try to make us do exactly that, though.

Yes, but no seemed to pay much attention to them vote wise on the first day when I made that post (my first post).

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And have things changed?

No

Originally Posted by Aganzir

How did you know that? It was pretty even between Nessa and him till the end.

It was 5 votes to 2 against Inzil when I voted, prior comments led me to believe people were on the Inzilwagon.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Shasta

To be honest, this attitude is starting to irritate me. If you happen to be suspected by Mac, you can't do anything without being suspicious, apparently. And apparently analyzing someone whom no one else has even bothered to consider is suspicious. Shoot me now.

Sometimes, yes, but only once I really made up my mind, which is not wholly the case with you. I mean, I did say that I might be wrong.

Originally Posted by Pitch

I know exactly what you mean.

Pardon? I mentioned plenty of things that were innocent-looking about you. Being more or less consistent in one's suspicions is suspicious nowadays?


No Cailín, alright. Preference now (in order): Skip, Pitch, Shasta.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Anyway, I never said that voting or suspecting Nessa is worse. That's your addition, and it doesn't make me feel better one bit.

Actually you're probably right. When I skimmed your analysis earlier I got the impression that you deducted more points from those who voted or suspected Nessa than those who voted or suspected Inzil which made me draw that conclusion. Now looking at it again I see it is now quite so, at least not in a conspicuous way.

Still that analysis of yours makes me wary. As far as I know voting Nessa might have a good vote. Yes it certainly seems like the wolves are offering her of a plate for us - and I agree that is the most likely scenario - but Nessa might also be a wolf, let's not forget that. Your analysis treats her as an innocent.

If we assume that Boro is the cobbler, a Mac-wolf's vote for Boro-cobbler (whom he probably knows the identity of) also makes sense to me, given that his long analysis is built on the Inzil/Nessa trail as an obvious set-up, and that he is casting suspicion on just about everyone who's partaken in it, and by implication making it a moral high-ground to stay away from it. He wouldn't have thought Boro would go end up lynched anyway I think, and if an accident were to happen, that wouldn't have been that bad for team-evil anyway. Hardly a problem at all in fact, given Agan's maths.

No, I'm not very happy about Mac. However, I feel I'm also reeling myself up. I should be around for most of the rest of the Day. Will step back and do some serious reading before drawing any serious conclusions.

Also, nice work with the vote-summaries Greenie!

Edit: x'ed with a few

(not saying that makes her look better, mind you, she is also one who we should have a closer look at)