WW: LXXXV - The Lost Philosophers of Maiar

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Also if everybody agrees upon me being Shasta's dreamed innocent (as it really looks like that), it means probably a lot of responsibility from my part. Well, at least it limits people's choices (they won't vote me), but they can also know that my points are not intentionally biased. I simply hope that they won't be too biased in any other way, I can promise you to do my best to avoid that...

Anyway, for now:

Shasta

First Day:

"Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan"
"I'm still liking Mac, but I think he might be making altogether too big a deal about Agan's post."
Okay, this looks sort of as if he had dreamed of Mac, but the fact that he much later dropped him suggests to me that he was not his dream. Of course, Shasta could have been bluffing and such, but not sure if he would do it that way. Agan he calls a Cobbler later on, but still keeps her mostly "green". I wonder if he might have dreamed Kitanna, but that sounds rather random (but who knows how he chose his dreams). Also, let's note that possibly not all players have been around by the time he made the post. But on the other hand, he does not really mention anybody else after that, so...

If I were to guess, I would say he might have dreamed of Agan (not Mac because of the later Days). Whereas from later Days it would seem rather sensible to say he dreamed of Rikae, his comment about her on Day 1 is rather nothing-saying. Except that she is the first name mentioned ever. (I wanted to check if there is not a pattern like that by any chance, but seemingly isn't, since he starts Day 2 with me, whom he clears the day after).

Second Day:
Lots of mess and I am not sure. I wonder if he might have dreamed of either of the dead then (the question would be why, neither seems like a likely pick for him, I think). Anyway, he did not at least seem to have dreamed of a Wolf, and so if we look at people he found innocent:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Feel good about -

Eomer - playstyle so far has been reminiscent of what I've seen an innocent-Eomer do.
Aganzir - While I'm looking at the Sallywagon, Agan's vote for her seems to be one of the least-wolfish of the lot, and she's brought up some well-reasoned points on others.
Cailin - Seems sharp and observant, no warning signs.
Rikae - Play is typical of ordo-Rikae, and I'd rather not lose her this early.
Mac - Hope I'm not giving him a pass because he sounds logical, but I really have no reason to distrust Mac at the moment.
Kitanna - Obvious.
Lommy - No warning signs as of yet, seems typical innocent Lommy

So maybe some Rikae now, or even Lommy (who died later) etc.?

Third Day: Backpedals on me, and given how he suspected me before, yes, it is clearer than day that he had dreamed of me there. He had not posted anything much elaborate during the whole Day as he seemingly was posting just from his phone.

Fourth Day: Suddenly starts to think more of Mänwe, so I really wonder if it was that he dreamed of him. The sort of hyperactivity might go hand in hand with "hooray! After several Nights I have at last managed to get a Wolf, brilliant!" But, well... it is not 100%. He at least prefers him to other lynches, in any case, and seems more convinced about him (if you can use that word) than about anybody else.

He posted two lists, I am putting here even the first one, a sort of "intro" list of what he's going to do in the Day:

Originally Posted by Shasta

elronds_daughter - Quiet. Second, after Manwe, on my list of "people Shasta will analyze today".
Macalaure - Intermediate. I've been giving him a pass thus far on the basis of his outspoken-ness. This needs to stop.
wilwarin538 - I honestly don't remember much of anything that's she's said or done in the last couple of days. This is a problem - she's slipping under my radar.
Nessa Telrunya - The wolf-frame-favorite, it seems. Lots of the talk the last few days has been about her, and thinking back, I don't recall her ever passionately defending herself. Contrary to what I said about Inzil yesterday, I'm not sure lynching her is the best option today.
Pitchwife - Under my radar. I need to have a closer look at him today.
Rikae - Interesting. A lot of what she's done has made me think she's being her typical wild-ordo self. As of right now I'm okay with her.
Boromir88 - Pinging my radar a bit. I need to go back and see exactly why, but I need to see more of him today.
A Little Green - I stand by the fact that I think she's being quieter than usual. Another one pinging my radar.
skip spence - A bit farther under my radar than I'd like. One I will be looking at today.
Manwe - Tops my list of 'players to analyze' today. I don't think anyone has paid much attention to him at all, and I don't like that.
Legate of Amon Lanc - I thought him suspicious in the beginning, but what I've seen since makes me think he's more innocent. A conundrum, but I think I'm okay with him right now.
Aganzir - Entirely too evil to be evil, if that makes sense. Possibly a cobbler, but I sincerely doubt she's a wolf. (More likely cobbler than innocent, though.)
Cailin - I like her style, but I'm afraid I may have been giving her a pass due to that. One I'll be looking at today.

I actually call attention to this list, because here he says something about "I will look at..." or something about "just radar" about basically everybody except for me, Rikae, Aganzir, Manwe and Nessa. So that makes me think I might be right in my previous assumption.

Here is the other list of the Day:

Originally Posted by Shasta

Green

Legate
Aganzir
Rikae

Green-Yellow

Nessa
Wilwa
Cailin

Yellow

Skip
Elronhubbard
Mac

Yellow-Orange

Boro
Greenie
Pitch
Manwe

Red

None

He put me, Aganzir and Rikae in the same slot on his last Day's list. I really wonder if all his dreams have survived until now, somehow, it seems a bit improbable. On the other hand, not impossible, and especially with the above, it looks logical.

So yes, that's it, here I would conclude. The thing about calling Agan a cobbler seems more like a backpedaling bluff, it is not really so significant. So I would really think that his dreams were: 1-innocent Agan, 2-innocent Rikae, 3-innocent me, 4-guilty Mänwe (probably). He is still rather uncertain, or switching sides about Nessa to make me think he dreamed of her at any point.

This is probably enough for me now. I should wake up in 7 hours, so better go now. I'll just quickly check if somebody crossposted with me...

And btw: Mänwe's post does not look good to me, not at all, precious. I think an innocent would behave differently if suspected in this way.

(and p.s. sorry for the length, it's the quotes And I know it's like for the sixth time you see the quotes of Shasta toDay, but I think it's very good if everybody goes through it by themselves... or at least I want to, anyway, and also feel it a bit of my responsibility anyway)

EDIT: x-ed with one Agan

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Also if everybody agrees upon me being Shasta's dreamed innocent (as it really looks like that), it means probably a lot of responsibility from my part.

Exactly. Pull yourself together or I'll give you Sharkey!

I wonder if he might have dreamed Kitanna, but that sounds rather random (but who knows how he chose his dreams).

I don't think it matters much because both Kitanna and me are/were innocent, but he was probably the most upset about Kit's reveal which might suggest his having dreamt of her... But he also kept listing me as innocent so I don't know.

But, well... it is not 100%.

I think it's about as clear as a seer can go without coming out.

Anyways I'm going to sleep.

[Macalaure]

Let's talk about something else.

YesterDay's voting:

Let's assume the wolves knew the cobbler's identity. I still wouldn't expect them to risk much to save him. A lot depends on Skip's role - if Skip is evil, Pitch was bus material, of course.

wilwa -> elronds_daughter (early vote for a now known innocent. e_d received more votes later, so it's possible wolf-wilwa planned to start an innocent-bandwaggon here)
Nessa -> Legate (similar situation as above - does it look better or worse that nobody followed her vote?)
Aganzir -> Pitch (first vote for him, at a point when the fuse to the Skip-waggon was already laid, very suspicious if Skip is evil)
Boro -> Nessa (that post... *shakes head*... I can't believe Boro would act this way as a wolf, but there is absolutely no reason why he would as an innocent! Anyway, he doesn't give any reasons, so this vote is suspicious.)
e_d -> Pitch(2)
Shasta -> Skip
Legate -> Shasta (hellishly suspicious, of course. Thank god he's cleared)
Greenie -> Skip (Skip evil => Greenie innocent / Greenie evil => Skip innocent. That's a good connection to have between two in my question mark group)
Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)
Pitch -> Skip(2) (makes Skip look better)
Mac -> Pitch(3) (erm.. nobody look at that piece of reasoning, please )
Skip -> Pitch(4) (of course)
Rikae -> Pitch(5) (an evil Skip would make Rikae look worse, too - then again, the bandwaggons weren't really close anymore)
Boro -> e_d(3) ("what the heck", indeed - if this vote had come earlier, it would look extremely evil)

Unfortunately, the two most interesting persons (imo, Cailín (no vote), Skip (vote in self defense)) left no trail. Shame...

[Macalaure]

And let's get this over with:

++Mänwe

No wolves are going to make the mistake of defending him now anymore anyway, and with a retraction, why wait.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I don't think it matters much because both Kitanna and me are/were innocent, but he was probably the most upset about Kit's reveal which might suggest his having dreamt of her... But he also kept listing me as innocent so I don't know.

It matters for us, of course, because unlike you, we don't know if you are innocent. But yea, whatever.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Let's assume the wolves knew the cobbler's identity. I still wouldn't expect them to risk much to save him. A lot depends on Skip's role - if Skip is evil, Pitch was bus material, of course.

Once again we don't really know if the Wolves knew for sure that Pitch was the Wolf. The Cobbler is sending them clues, but if e.g. neither Pitch nor Boro's name appeared among the names sent to them, and they had suspected Boro might be Cobbler as well as we did, then who knows... I say you jump too quickly to conclusions.

I think it is more interesting that so many people have labeled Boro as Cobbler, because then the question is, what would the Wolves do in such a case, in relation to what do they think and what Boro really is. I think it might be worth it who thought he was the Cobbler, who opposed it somewhat, and so on. And to try to discern the motives behind it. E.g. if they knew Pitch was their Cobbler and Boro is innocent, then they had no problem with saying he is one. If Boro is one of them, then it would probably make sense for them to try to make him look like a Cobbler (that way sort of downplaying him), or perhaps for some to even try to defend him (but that's far less likely as it's dangerous). If they also thought Boro was the Cobbler, they might have wanted to just as well get rid of him.

I guess I will go a bit through the Boro-situation yesterDay.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Agan

I think Legate is pretty much clear now, and I would say Rikae is too. I'm tempted to say he dreamed of me too, but that's only because I know I'm innocent - he never said so explicitly.
Currently I think our best course is to lynch Mänwe. Shasta's case against him seemed fabricated in the sense that he interpreted everything Mänwe said wolfishly, and something must have tipped the wolves off.

I obviously agree about Legate. I'm unsure about Rikae, and I'm pretty sure he didn't dream of you. It would be odd to keep calling a dreamed innocent a probable cobbler. I agree though that lynching Mänwe is our best bet toDay.

Originally Posted by Mac

The Green-Yellow-Red list in #460 is clearer:
Legate, Aganzir, Rikae dreamt of and innocent.

I'm not sure if I'd give as much weight to this as you do, given that Shasta said the list was about who he doesn't want to vote, and Agan was there because he thought she was probably the cobbler.

Originally Posted by Cailín

Don't worry, Agan, I wouldn't. It was just a quick first response because I am quite tired and was planning to go to bed - but wanted to let people know I am back. Of course, then I got stuck looking at wedding cakes and such, so now I'm still chatting.

Cailín! First it was Valier talking cute about the little Maia and thus making it impossible to suspect her, now you're doing the same by talking about wedding cakes!

Originally Posted by Legate

While I am at that, I must say I was totally shocked when Pitch turned out to be a Cobbler, as we have mostly thought that Mister Boro it is. So what shall we do with the drunken sailor?

Yes, Boro is an interesting one. I can see no reason for a Borordo to post the way he did late yesterDay. Considering that he's still alive makes me seriously suspicious of him. As for Pitch, the funny part is that I found some comment of his cobblerish yesterDay, but later on forgot about it myself! Which is exceedingly embarrassing.

Originally Posted by Agan

I actually went through the thread during the night to see Pitch's interactions and found two people I thought he could've been hinting with. Wanna guess? Rikae and Legate. I now wonder if they hadn't managed to identify him, or hadn't dropped him any hints that would've helped him identify them. His guilt probably points at Nessa's innocence though.

I'm still not sure of Nessa. Obviously Pitch thought she was an ordo, but then most of us did put her and Inzil in the same category at that time.

Originally Posted by Mac

This leaves a rest of six people. Half of these people are evil.

As others have pointed out, this logic doesn't quite hold water.

Originally Posted by Agan

I'm willing to bet it wasn't Lommy or Mac, he was simply too undecided about them. Eomer seems the most likely to me - despite his listing me as green I don't think he dreamed of me. The seer wouldn't say "probably the cobbler" of a dreamed of innocent.

I pretty much agree with this.

Originally Posted by Mac

wilwa -> elronds_daughter (early vote for a now known innocent. e_d received more votes later, so it's possible wolf-wilwa planned to start an innocent-bandwaggon here)
Nessa -> Legate (similar situation as above - does it look better or worse that nobody followed her vote?)
Aganzir -> Pitch (first vote for him, at a point when the fuse to the Skip-waggon was already laid, very suspicious if Skip is evil)
Boro -> Nessa (that post... *shakes head*... I can't believe Boro would act this way as a wolf, but there is absolutely no reason why he would as an innocent! Anyway, he doesn't give any reasons, so this vote is suspicious.)
e_d -> Pitch(2)
Shasta -> Skip
Legate -> Shasta (hellishly suspicious, of course. Thank god he's cleared)
Greenie -> Skip (Skip evil => Greenie innocent / Greenie evil => Skip innocent. That's a good connection to have between two in my question mark group)
Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)
Pitch -> Skip(2) (makes Skip look better)
Mac -> Pitch(3) (erm.. nobody look at that piece of reasoning, please )
Skip -> Pitch(4) (of course)
Rikae -> Pitch(5) (an evil Skip would make Rikae look worse, too - then again, the bandwaggons weren't really close anymore)
Boro -> e_d(3) ("what the heck", indeed - if this vote had come earlier, it would look extremely evil)

So basically a lot depends on Skip's role, doesn't it? If Skip is evil, Agan and Mac look bad. I'm still rather suspicious of Skip, but like Mac said the fact Pitch voted for him makes him look better, or else Pitch was mistaken. I'm not sure about Mac's thoughts on Wilwa and Nessa.


EDIT: x-ed with Legate

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Legate

Once again we don't really know if the Wolves knew for sure that Pitch was the Wolf.

Err?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Err?

Ugh, sorry, I meant Cobbler, of course

Anyway, I went through all of Boro's posts and I don't know what to think of him. The best would be to hear from him, in any case.

I have also read through yesterDay and tried to focus on the Boro-Cobbler situation, and what people said about that - see above, I think it might be helpful to consider how WWs would act towards somebody who was not the Cobbler (and the question remains, who he is, of course), but who was suspected of being the Cobbler (and we can't know whether the WWs, or some of them, did not think him a Cobbler too). Although depending who you think the WWs are, the situation may look different... let's see:

Basically the idea of Boro being the cobbler emerged, and once again is an interesting proof of the "herd mentality" (of which I was a part), from Agan's thought in her post #464 (page 12, as are the following):

Originally Posted by Agan

I think Boro is the cobbler (or a wolf posing as one, but it seems unlikelier). He is being useless and he knows it. I've been disinclined to go after him thus far because I thought he might be a gifted, but we're now four days into the game and I find it impossible he'd be so blatantly unhelpful if innocent.

followed by Mac:

Originally Posted by Mac

I wish I would have thought of that yesterDay, but you're right. Certainly his behaviour toDay strongly suggests it.

And immediately in the next post by skip:

Originally Posted by Skip

Edit: Guess that Boro as the cobbler makes sense. If he is, do we let him get away with that?

Which is actually moving from words to deeds - rather alarming, in itself. Especially if Boro is innocent and the WWs knew he is not the Cobbler, then skip-wolf could be here calling for the possibility of getting rid of Boro. Or something.

Then goes me (duh! Mesa not like my early yesterDay-conclusions at all, except for the thing about Mac):

Originally Posted by Legate

If Boro is the Cobbler, then I would say either Rikae and/or Mac and/or Agan are Wolves, or maybe all of them.

And then we continued talking with more or less presuming he is one (at least from my part). Meanwhile, other players commented on that idea...

Originally Posted by wilwa

Boro could be the Cobbler, he's likely not Gifted or a Wolf because he would be far more helpful. Perhaps he's a bored ordo? But I don't remember Boro ever acting that way as an Ordo. So yes, Cobbler seems the most likely. And according to Agan's math (Math?!? she must be a wolf! ) lynching the Cobbler does no good, so we leave him be.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Boro - Possible cobbler. I have a hard time seeing him as a wolf, he seems too uninvolved and too disinclined to manipulate. Could be bored ordo as well, but then, I remember Borordos who have been really involved and in the middle of things.

At that point, Rikae still kept asking him questions as if everything was normal, which makes me think that it supports her innocence.

Pitch himself had said very little of Boro, in the beginning only mentioned him among people he did not suspect earlier and starts to suspect now.

For the rest of the Day, especially Mac acted in the way as if Boro's cobblerism was set in stone.

What to conclude? Mac's behavior towards the presumed Cobbler makes me wonder the most, he was essentially the one dismissing Boro completely; I also find a bit alarming that toDay all of a sudden (in contrary to his previous fierceness) he did not find it worth it to make a single remark about it.

What I am looking forward to the most is to hear from Boro himself, like I said, and what he has to say on the matter. And if you are innocent, Boro, I bid thee to seriously make the effort and post.

[Cailín]

I am honestly and wholly innocently not convinced by this Manwe-is-a-discovered-wolf theory. I agree that I may have been too eager to grant Aganzir Known Innocent status (though could it be that the ancient rule - the Seer sees the Cobbler as an Ordinary Villager - confused Shasta here? To group her with his two known innocents shows an extraordinary amount of faith in being able to read her correctly if he did not dream of her). However, Shasta did not even vote Manwe yesterDay: he gave unknown Skip his first vote instead. Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe? Risky business. He must have known he did not have a lot of chances left and with a known wolf and some innocents a reveal in this stage in the game would have been the traditional thing to do.

OK - Manwe looks fairly bad and Shasta's analysis, though it may seem a contrived Seerish version of an analysis, is not unreasonable. Besides, there is no doubt the wolves did find Shasta, but to be honest, Shasta's Legate 180 on the man himself looks pretty Seerish and that together with his faith in some of his Known Innocents might have been enough. Is anyone wondering why elronds_daughter was the second kill? If they were so sure about Shasta, why not get rid of Legate or Rikae?

So there. I'd have to be the silliest wolf alive to defend a doomed wolf buddy. Of course, if Manwe does turn out to be innocent I get to feel smug about that at least. The likely scenario of course is that Manwe will be lynched and found to be a hairy nasty wolf and everyone tomorrow (especially the grinning wolves) will agree that I must be his partner desperately trying to save him.

I'm not interested in saving Manwe. I distrust him as much as I can and should distrust my fellow players. Let's be careful though and not take things for granted.

My list

The ones I think are our wolves:

Skip
Wilwa
Macalaure
Manwe

The ones I think could be our wolves:

Nessa
Boro
Greenie

Innocents:

Aganzir
Rikae
Legate

[Mänwe]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon)

You consider two votes a bandwagon? Will you consider that she was a known innocent to us all only as of this morning? I suspected her as much as you had Loslote whom you pressed to lynch on the second day, that was more of a bandwagon then a vote for e_d.

~~

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Once again a note about Mänwe... he sounds to me not like a Wolf, but like a truly honestly speaking innocent, being honest to the point of it doing harm to him. I mean, if it is a honest need to explain himself, I can very well imagine it...

QFT

~~

Originally Posted by Cailín

Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe?

A fair point- I would say Shasta was preparing to dream of me last night and hadn't dreamt of me before. Being killed i'm not sure if Nog would have accepted a name to be dreamt about? If he did...then Shasta is turning in his grave at the possibility of me being lynched.

~~

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I attempted to look like the cobbler because I really didn't want to get killed in this game.

Gads! I failed too.