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#1 | |||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Also if everybody agrees upon me being Shasta's dreamed innocent (as it really looks like that), it means probably a lot of responsibility from my part. Well, at least it limits people's choices (they won't vote me), but they can also know that my points are not intentionally biased. I simply hope that they won't be too biased in any other way, I can promise you to do my best to avoid that...
Anyway, for now: Shasta First Day: "Mac and Kitanna both look good to me so far, as does Agan" "I'm still liking Mac, but I think he might be making altogether too big a deal about Agan's post." Okay, this looks sort of as if he had dreamed of Mac, but the fact that he much later dropped him suggests to me that he was not his dream. Of course, Shasta could have been bluffing and such, but not sure if he would do it that way. Agan he calls a Cobbler later on, but still keeps her mostly "green". I wonder if he might have dreamed Kitanna, but that sounds rather random (but who knows how he chose his dreams). Also, let's note that possibly not all players have been around by the time he made the post. But on the other hand, he does not really mention anybody else after that, so... If I were to guess, I would say he might have dreamed of Agan (not Mac because of the later Days). Whereas from later Days it would seem rather sensible to say he dreamed of Rikae, his comment about her on Day 1 is rather nothing-saying. Except that she is the first name mentioned ever. (I wanted to check if there is not a pattern like that by any chance, but seemingly isn't, since he starts Day 2 with me, whom he clears the day after). Second Day: Lots of mess and I am not sure. I wonder if he might have dreamed of either of the dead then (the question would be why, neither seems like a likely pick for him, I think). Anyway, he did not at least seem to have dreamed of a Wolf, and so if we look at people he found innocent: Quote:
Third Day: Backpedals on me, and given how he suspected me before, yes, it is clearer than day that he had dreamed of me there. He had not posted anything much elaborate during the whole Day as he seemingly was posting just from his phone. Fourth Day: Suddenly starts to think more of Mänwe, so I really wonder if it was that he dreamed of him. The sort of hyperactivity might go hand in hand with "hooray! After several Nights I have at last managed to get a Wolf, brilliant!" But, well... it is not 100%. He at least prefers him to other lynches, in any case, and seems more convinced about him (if you can use that word) than about anybody else. He posted two lists, I am putting here even the first one, a sort of "intro" list of what he's going to do in the Day: Quote:
Here is the other list of the Day: Quote:
So yes, that's it, here I would conclude. The thing about calling Agan a cobbler seems more like a backpedaling bluff, it is not really so significant. So I would really think that his dreams were: 1-innocent Agan, 2-innocent Rikae, 3-innocent me, 4-guilty Mänwe (probably). He is still rather uncertain, or switching sides about Nessa to make me think he dreamed of her at any point. This is probably enough for me now. I should wake up in 7 hours, so better go now. I'll just quickly check if somebody crossposted with me... And btw: Mänwe's post does not look good to me, not at all, precious. I think an innocent would behave differently if suspected in this way. (and p.s. sorry for the length, it's the quotes ![]() EDIT: x-ed with one Agan
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#2 | |||
Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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Anyways I'm going to sleep.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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#3 |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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Let's talk about something else.
YesterDay's voting: Let's assume the wolves knew the cobbler's identity. I still wouldn't expect them to risk much to save him. A lot depends on Skip's role - if Skip is evil, Pitch was bus material, of course. wilwa -> elronds_daughter (early vote for a now known innocent. e_d received more votes later, so it's possible wolf-wilwa planned to start an innocent-bandwaggon here) Nessa -> Legate (similar situation as above - does it look better or worse that nobody followed her vote?) Aganzir -> Pitch (first vote for him, at a point when the fuse to the Skip-waggon was already laid, very suspicious if Skip is evil) Boro -> Nessa (that post... *shakes head*... I can't believe Boro would act this way as a wolf, but there is absolutely no reason why he would as an innocent! Anyway, he doesn't give any reasons, so this vote is suspicious.) e_d -> Pitch(2) Shasta -> Skip Legate -> Shasta (hellishly suspicious, of course. Thank god he's cleared) Greenie -> Skip (Skip evil => Greenie innocent / Greenie evil => Skip innocent. That's a good connection to have between two in my question mark group) Mänwe -> e_d(2) (fueling the known-innocent bandwaggon) Pitch -> Skip(2) (makes Skip look better) Mac -> Pitch(3) (erm.. nobody look at that piece of reasoning, please ![]() Skip -> Pitch(4) (of course) Rikae -> Pitch(5) (an evil Skip would make Rikae look worse, too - then again, the bandwaggons weren't really close anymore) Boro -> e_d(3) ("what the heck", indeed - if this vote had come earlier, it would look extremely evil) Unfortunately, the two most interesting persons (imo, Cailín (no vote), Skip (vote in self defense)) left no trail. Shame... |
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#4 |
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
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And let's get this over with:
++Mänwe No wolves are going to make the mistake of defending him now anymore anyway, and with a retraction, why wait. |
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#5 | ||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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I think it is more interesting that so many people have labeled Boro as Cobbler, because then the question is, what would the Wolves do in such a case, in relation to what do they think and what Boro really is. I think it might be worth it who thought he was the Cobbler, who opposed it somewhat, and so on. And to try to discern the motives behind it. E.g. if they knew Pitch was their Cobbler and Boro is innocent, then they had no problem with saying he is one. If Boro is one of them, then it would probably make sense for them to try to make him look like a Cobbler (that way sort of downplaying him), or perhaps for some to even try to defend him (but that's far less likely as it's dangerous). If they also thought Boro was the Cobbler, they might have wanted to just as well get rid of him. I guess I will go a bit through the Boro-situation yesterDay.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#6 | ||||||||
Leaf-clad Lady
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EDIT: x-ed with Legate
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#7 | |
Leaf-clad Lady
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"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
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#8 | ||||||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
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Ugh, sorry, I meant Cobbler, of course
![]() Anyway, I went through all of Boro's posts and I don't know what to think of him. The best would be to hear from him, in any case. I have also read through yesterDay and tried to focus on the Boro-Cobbler situation, and what people said about that - see above, I think it might be helpful to consider how WWs would act towards somebody who was not the Cobbler (and the question remains, who he is, of course), but who was suspected of being the Cobbler (and we can't know whether the WWs, or some of them, did not think him a Cobbler too). Although depending who you think the WWs are, the situation may look different... let's see: Basically the idea of Boro being the cobbler emerged, and once again is an interesting proof of the "herd mentality" (of which I was a part), from Agan's thought in her post #464 (page 12, as are the following): Quote:
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Then goes me (duh! Mesa not like my early yesterDay-conclusions at all, except for the thing about Mac): Quote:
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Pitch himself had said very little of Boro, in the beginning only mentioned him among people he did not suspect earlier and starts to suspect now. For the rest of the Day, especially Mac acted in the way as if Boro's cobblerism was set in stone. What to conclude? Mac's behavior towards the presumed Cobbler makes me wonder the most, he was essentially the one dismissing Boro completely; I also find a bit alarming that toDay all of a sudden (in contrary to his previous fierceness) he did not find it worth it to make a single remark about it. What I am looking forward to the most is to hear from Boro himself, like I said, and what he has to say on the matter. And if you are innocent, Boro, I bid thee to seriously make the effort and post.
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"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
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#9 |
Ghost Prince of Cardolan
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Lurking in the shadows.
Posts: 711
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I am honestly and wholly innocently not convinced by this Manwe-is-a-discovered-wolf theory. I agree that I may have been too eager to grant Aganzir Known Innocent status (though could it be that the ancient rule - the Seer sees the Cobbler as an Ordinary Villager - confused Shasta here? To group her with his two known innocents shows an extraordinary amount of faith in being able to read her correctly if he did not dream of her). However, Shasta did not even vote Manwe yesterDay: he gave unknown Skip his first vote instead. Words are words but votes are actions - would Shasta vote Skip if he had found a Known Wolf in Manwe? Risky business. He must have known he did not have a lot of chances left and with a known wolf and some innocents a reveal in this stage in the game would have been the traditional thing to do.
OK - Manwe looks fairly bad and Shasta's analysis, though it may seem a contrived Seerish version of an analysis, is not unreasonable. Besides, there is no doubt the wolves did find Shasta, but to be honest, Shasta's Legate 180 on the man himself looks pretty Seerish and that together with his faith in some of his Known Innocents might have been enough. Is anyone wondering why elronds_daughter was the second kill? If they were so sure about Shasta, why not get rid of Legate or Rikae? So there. I'd have to be the silliest wolf alive to defend a doomed wolf buddy. Of course, if Manwe does turn out to be innocent I get to feel smug about that at least. The likely scenario of course is that Manwe will be lynched and found to be a hairy nasty wolf and everyone tomorrow (especially the grinning wolves) will agree that I must be his partner desperately trying to save him. I'm not interested in saving Manwe. I distrust him as much as I can and should distrust my fellow players. Let's be careful though and not take things for granted. My list The ones I think are our wolves: Skip Wilwa Macalaure Manwe The ones I think could be our wolves: Nessa Boro Greenie Innocents: Aganzir Rikae Legate |
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#10 | ||
Shade of Carn Dûm
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Your 'best bets' will doom you all.
You consider two votes a bandwagon? Will you consider that she was a known innocent to us all only as of this morning? I suspected her as much as you had Loslote whom you pressed to lynch on the second day, that was more of a bandwagon then a vote for e_d.
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~~ Gads! I failed too.
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"I am, I fear, a most unsatisfactory person."
- (Letter #124 To Sir Stanley Unwin) |
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