Game Thread: WW LXXXVI - The Halls of Mandos

[Nogrod]

Well of course we have a phabbler.

I mean I was thinking about it yesterDay and then a bit during the Night - as this time no looking back to the thread by Night will be futile as you don't die as such.

Basically he was talking sense, making good points, being reasonable... well what else do you expect from tp? And I actually thought him a good and helpful ordinary innocent there and then.

But looking back at him later I think there was an unusual amount of small errors in his plans, all either benefiting the wolves or making it easier for them to play against us with their knowledge or then making it easier for us to back the wrong horses...

Let's take an example that has not been discussed thus far (Agan and myself -I'm not sure who, but someone else as well, Nerwen?) actually corrected a few of his suggestions already yesterDay).

He said we could automatically assume that the one the Mandos-folk would give an extra vote for is a goodie if we just agreed on it. I do myself believe there is a chance that the goodies should fare better there than here, but - like some others already have pointed out - it's not self-evident they will.

But there are other major problems as well.

If the voting there goes with the same DL as here as the rules suggest, there will be the same last minute madness there - especially if people here leave the voting to the last moment. So it is actually possible that even with the Mandos which would have a seer present who had made the others believe in him and seemingly there was a charge of goodies; well even then enough numbers of cobblers and/or wolves could make last minute impact on the extra-vote here.

Also, the Mandos goodies (if they were in charge) might have a good reason to give an extra vote to other people than "known ordinary innocents". Let's say we have a situation where a wolf and an innocent are leading the tally and a cobbler is voting the wolf and an the ordo is voting the other ordo. Surely if they knew the other was a wolf they would give the extra vote to the cobbler...

If there was a strict system adopted by us it would make it easier for the wolves to use it than to us. But also, even without a strict system established, if people were generally tuned towards that kind of interpretation it would steer their interpretations - and the wolves could play on that.


EDIT: X'd with a host.

[Nogrod]

Sorry forgot the last point I meant to make.

Ironically, the better we fare here aka. the more wolves and cobblers die, the firmer the Mandos is in their hands. And vice versa.


Rikae, you are a diabolical genius! *bows*

[Anguirel]

It's like the British House of Lords, I keep thinking; a hang out zone for defeated politicians...

irrelevant appendix mainly to entertain Mith: the Coalition have a majority in the Commons, the Opposition in the Lords...which ones are the werewolves??

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Agan- Please say you're kidding...

Bleh....

In other words the Night-kill was almost as bad as it possibly could've been.

I naturally expect Glorfindel to keep me alive till tomorrow, not that we're probably going to learn much. I don't know if Shasta is allowed to stay there long enough to learn whether Mänwe or today's lynch was a wolf but I hope he is. (So the wolves are in pains not to lynch one of them today, I'd assume.)
Also, I'm totally going to crack up if Mänwe was a gifted.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So maybe we've got to believe her.

Yeah that might be a good idea. Anybody should be able to see there's no sense in lying - you'll know for sure tomorrow anyway.

Somehow makes me less suspicious of Nog though. Looks more like he was framed now (although the wolves don't really know anymore than us others). Hmm, wait, not sure if my own logic makes sense.

No it doesn't. Why is Nog less suspicious because you know he's been arguing with an innocent than if he had been arguing with an unknown?

[Nogrod]

Auch!

So what I was afraid was true then?

Looking at it from this POV makes it a bit more sensible though, as I could imagine Shasta being so excited to play lovers with Agan that he could freak out that way with a slightest suspicion (well actually not, it still feels soo odd way from him to react as I think I was the only one supecting him there). Sadly it brought the wolves to his door - and thence to Agan as well.

Heh, I was starting to suspect you Agan with your odd determination to suspect me, even if I was quite convinced after D1 that you were innocent. But I do understand it now as you have a right to say this all started because I suspected him. But then again, he made very badly informed accusations and, sad to say, messed it up himself.

I'd bet a fortune that if he had not made that last post of his he'd be alive still - and you Agan would too. *curses*

Okay then.

So who did it?


EDIT: x'd with a host again... (you guys really keep busy)

[the phantom]

A major point Nog is that when I first made that suggestion I was under the impression that the Seer could continue dreaming of Living players. Once someone (Agan?) told me this was not the case I amended my opinion to a specific situation- where a revealed Seer on the Living thread dies and announces his impending dream, and then using the Dead-Thread vote to indicate the result of the dream. It's a good idea, and has no benefit to the baddies.

Not to mention that I said this yesterday-

Originally Posted by me

I have spent a grand total of... oh... five minutes considering tactics and such. I planned to dedicate a good deal of time to it during the first Night, but I was run ragged from dawn until dusk. So, I'm going to say some things and please tell me if my assumptions are missing a key point of this match.

Originally Posted by me

Understand also that I'm not at this time proposing this!! All I wish to know now is if my limited time for thinking has caused me to misjudge the situation. IF it is determined that my thoughts are correct, then we can move on to actual discussion of options.

(Basically, I don't want anyone claiming I'm purposefully pushing something harmful in willful ignorance of some key point. I'd be an idiot to assume that said key point won't be brought to light given the makeup of this village.)

You're doing exactly the obvious annoying thing that I was warning against! I had no time to prepare for the game and I was making all of my posts either during class or while trying to supervise little kids in a computer lab, and in a revolutionary game with brand new rules such a set-up was bound to cause me problems. That's why I spent time tossing ideas around and such to make sure that by the end of Day 1 I had a much clearer picture of things (basically delegating much of the sitting and pondering that I normally do to other people).

And you'll note in the quotes above that I had a nagging suspicion that some annoying chump would latch onto this and say, "Ah ha! He's trying to mislead us! Evil!" which is why I tried to be as obvious as possible that I was NOT trying to get people to adopt my ideas but rather tell me if they were flawed FIRST.

The fact that's it's you of all people doing this incredibly obvious hack-job on me is extremely disappointing.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Ang

Why would Shasta have been so unsubtle? No, wait, I can answer my own question. The excitement of being a Gifted gives one a great desire to boast, and makes one liable to deploy the overly confident double-bluff

False! As I said before, given this set up there is no purpose whatsoever to the Lovers hinting at one another. They already know each other, and it's extremely easy to prove their truthfulness (they COME BACK TO LIFE).

A Lover has no need to bluff or double-bluff, or hint or anything at all. A Lover in this game is simply an Ordo who rises from the grave, and is thus a PROVEN innocent. To say that Shasta was attempting any sort of Lover-based bluff I think is to misjudge his grasp of his role. (i.e. If I were a Wolf I wouldn't bother in the least trying to look for a Lover other than just looking for general jumpiness perhaps that might speak of a Gifted.)

[Thinlómien]

I'd possibly die laughing if phanty and Ang were both cobblers.

Originally Posted by Fea

The point is more that if we spend all of our time asking if Shasta was the seer or not, we won't be looking for other seer hints, we won't be searching for wolves, and we'll blow an entire Day talking about something that all boils down to the wolves taking the easy way out on choosing a kill.

And if we don't talk about it, we ignore all the evidence we have.

Originally Posted by Fea

Even without knowing the roles of the people we lynch, we can still ascertain the patterns of voting that led to lynches. For instance, phantom voting to avoid a double lynch even though it meant he didn't vote for his stated suspects makes phantom look good, because he could have just let multiple people die, but did not do so. The role of who died is irrelevant, the point is that phantom prevented a group lynch. That makes him look good.

Mithalwen, on the other hand, for attempting to provoke a multi-lynch, looks pretty bad.

Who voted for Manwe and what were their reasons? It doesn't matter that we don't know who he is, because we still have a traceable set of actions that led up to his departure and relocation.

Shasta. We don't know his role, but we know that he's probably not a wolf (because, let's face it, I doubt the wolves would try suicide if I wasn't one of them, offering it up). Therefore, we can look at reasons why not-wolf-Shasta would be targeted at Night. We can look at the people he interacted with. Or we can shrug it off and call it a random kill job.

The point is that we are still capable of identifying pieces of information and analyzing them. We just don't have all of the information handed to us.

Yes, I see. But there's still also evidence on Day1, too, especially in the end of it (forming voting patterns, alliances, skirmishes, possible hints in banter etc).


edit: xed with Nog who sounds really rather scary!

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lom

Psst. Try highlighting it.

I did.

Originally Posted by Lom

Still thinking about the Nog thing. Mostly something like: if the wolves caught something that I didn't and thought Shasta was a lover, it doesn't mean they killed him because he looked like a seer to them. Ergo, Nogrod doesn't look so fishy. Makes more sense?

Having dinner now, but then I should leave you and vote.

Got your point. Thanks! Also, dinner at 10.30 PM?

Nog's reaction to Agan and Shasta being lovers looks fishy, can't pinpoint it but there's something really off in that post.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

Greenie will be elevated from Koala to Swarm of Killer bees if she votes for Nessa. That looks like an attempt to stay out of the main confrontations going on today and make a vote for someone who is either not likely to be lynched or a bandwagon victim if people start getting cold feet about Nog, Phantom or Glirdy. I'm understanding the uncomfortabality about Nog and Mith, because I'm feeling the same way. What I'm not understanding Greenie, is why that's not strong enough to earn your vote, and thus why Nessa? I know you said her vote bothered you yesterday, but today there's been enough shenanigans between Nog, Phantom and Mith that I think is suspicious enough.

Nessa is the one I have the most solid unease with, based, I admit, largely on her very strange vote yesterDay. As for Mith and Nog - Mith I'm just totally at a loss with and therefore wouldn't like to vote, and Nog is more confusing than downright wolfy. Or was, more like, because he's seriously giving me the creeps now. And I don't really see how voting for Nessa would be more suspicious than voting, say, Nog who seems to be quite a common suspect (ie. quite easy for a wolf to jump on if he is, in fact, innocent).


EDIT: x-ed with Lomz

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Got your point. Thanks! Also, dinner at 10.30 PM?

Blame Agan the cook.

Okay, Boro has a fair point about Glirdy looking like a cobbler. That means I'm actually not going to vote him, because I think the wolves are our primary target. The same logic also saves Phantom and Ang from my vote toDay.

And I'm not really sure if Lottie isn't just a rather confused and possibly slightly lazy or time-limited ordo.

So

++Wilwa

I'm aware this is not the most reasoned of all votes, but call it a gut-feeling. Read her post where she quotes Boro. It's just somehow smug, the tone, she gives the impression that she is slightly less confused than the rest of us, which she would be if she only entered the game after nice Nightly briefing by her pack. Also, the wolves have more reason to enjoy the confusion than us, because after all, their objective is just to slaughter while we really need to watch out for what we're shooting at.


edit: xed with Greenie

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Nog's reaction to Agan and Shasta being lovers looks fishy, can't pinpoint it but there's something really off in that post.

Originally Posted by Lommy

edit: xed with Nog who sounds really rather scary!

etc. etc. etc.

I'd appreciate some real points to refute before I go to sleep than this wishy-washiness which just piles up into common knowledge all those who don't actually read the thread but just vote offhand stick with.

I have nothing against dying after a decent fight with crafty wolves & cobblers or misguided ordos, but that is just plain annoying.


EDIT: x'd with Lommies & Greenie

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

etc. etc. etc.

I'd appreciate some real points to refute before I go to sleep than this wishy-washiness which just piles up into common knowledge all those who don't actually read the thread but just vote offhand stick with.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Well past bed-time, once again.

++ Nog

I don't need to underline this, do I?

But well, like Ang, tp and Fea have already said, gaining a chance to enter the Mandos thread would be interesting indeed.

Speaking of which... I have noticed some of you guys speak of people peeking at the dead-thread prematurely is more or less understandable and kind of obvious people do it (tp even admitted doing that, which actually fits well with my thought of him being the cobbler). And looking at the number of views there (182) thus far strongly suggests it's not done only by the mods and now two players, added with random 'Downers just curious what the thread is about.

So let me strongly disagree and protest.

Keep away from it. Really.

Looking there is unsportsmanlike and bad gaming. And what's the joy of winning if you gain it by deceit?


Some suspicions (and hopefully reasons to trust) coming forwards in a moment or two.

[Thinlómien]

Innocent
Agan - feeling like quoting a Finnish folk song which is about a bear whose biggest crime was endless love.
Fea - seems fine enough, more invlolved and sensible than normally, which I like.

In-between
Nogrod - gives me headache, to be honest.
Greenie - kind of to the point but there's something a bit different in her manner than usual. Can't say what, though, so not saying anything more yet.
Ed - mostly, reminds me of Winnie the Pooh. It's just an irrational association I get from reading her posts and it's all I have this far.
Nerwen - under the radar.
Legate - no idea.
Nessa - see above.
BG - has she even posted yet...?
Sally - where is Sallycake?
Boro - seems innocent and guilty at the same time.
Mith - I think I can usually read her pretty well, but this time I have no clue.

Suspicious-ish
Glirdan - not entirely a fan of his case against me.
Lottie - hasn't done anything useful to put it bluntly, only phangirled. (Don't worry I heart you anyway, Lottiepop!)
Wilwa - the little I've seen of her is just off. Her manner is somehow smug (in the lack of a better word), and it makes me uneasy.
the phantom - smells of pie.
Anguirel - see above, although the stench is not as strong in his case.


edit: xed with both

[the phantom]

Well, at least with that last revelation we can now predict what's been going on in the Dead Thread.

Manwe: Dies and iz dead. Darn. So, um...
*waits*
Manwe: Vote or something?
Rikae: No.
*waits*
Shasta: Dead 2. *#$(#@!!
Manwe: Yay! I haz friend! What R U?
Shasta: Lover, lol
Manwe: Nuh uh
Shasta: Um yeah
Manwe: rly?
Shasta: yeppers
Manwe: Oh noes! I'll B alone again!
Shasta: We vote & stuff?
Rikae: Yes.
Shasta: Coolz.
Manwe: Woot!
Shasta: ++ Manwe
Manwe: ++ Shasta (x-post)
Shasta: ROTFL!!
Manwe: LMAO!!

I think that's about right.

[A Little Green]

Well past bed-time, once again.

++ Nog

Since I figured a Nessa vote would be pretty much a throwaway. A bad premise, but that's it.

[Nerwen]

Back and reading.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

if the wolves caught something that I didn't and thought Shasta was a lover, it doesn't mean they killed him because he looked like a seer to them. Ergo, Nogrod doesn't look so fishy. Makes more sense?

If the wolves caught a lover hint, they were extremely paranoid. During his early banter Shasta said he'd have to be Lúthien if Nerwen was Beren. Incidentally, it was true, but that's all there was. So no it doesn't make sense.

Originally Posted by the phantom

False! As I said before, given this set up there is no purpose whatsoever to the Lovers hinting at one another. They already know each other, and it's extremely easy to prove their truthfulness (they COME BACK TO LIFE).

Exactly and that's what we agreed - instead we were going to suspect each other if need be in order not to be night-killed.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So what I was afraid was true then?

And what exactly were you afraid of?

Looking at it from this POV makes it a bit more sensible though, as I could imagine Shasta being so excited to play lovers with Agan that he could freak out that way with a slightest suspicion (well actually not, it still feels soo odd way from him to react as I think I was the only one supecting him there).

You are underestimating him (psht, as if playing lovers with me was so unusual for him ). He was seriously annoyed with you and thought you were being deliberately mean.

But I do understand it now as you have a right to say this all started because I suspected him. But then again, he made very badly informed accusations and, sad to say, messed it up himself.

Hmm. I seem to remember we both agreed you looked freaking suspicious. See my post 90, that's where it started for me. (Oh and I actually left a hint - the beautiful lady I'm possibly going to paint was no one else than Lúthien Tinúviel. We discussed you on MSN.)

I am willing to vote for Nog today. He is false and needs to die. Remember Nog, death is not the end - and if you're innocent, you can surely help us even after your death.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Got your point. Thanks! Also, dinner at 10.30 PM?

Nog's reaction to Agan and Shasta being lovers looks fishy, can't pinpoint it but there's something really off in that post.

Yesterday we had dinner at 1 am.
And I totally agree about Nog's reaction. It not only looks like damage control but also as if he was trying to... twist everything.

I like the fact that Greenie voted for Nog but not that she did it after Boro threatened to suspect her more if she had voted Nessa.

Nog if you want reasons, I can naturally go through my posts and make a summary of what I've said of you so far. My main (rational) argument against you is that you should know better, ergo you're playing dumb, and I can't see an innocent you doing it.