Game Thread: WW LXXXVI - The Halls of Mandos

[the phantom]

A major point Nog is that when I first made that suggestion I was under the impression that the Seer could continue dreaming of Living players. Once someone (Agan?) told me this was not the case I amended my opinion to a specific situation- where a revealed Seer on the Living thread dies and announces his impending dream, and then using the Dead-Thread vote to indicate the result of the dream. It's a good idea, and has no benefit to the baddies.

Not to mention that I said this yesterday-

Originally Posted by me

I have spent a grand total of... oh... five minutes considering tactics and such. I planned to dedicate a good deal of time to it during the first Night, but I was run ragged from dawn until dusk. So, I'm going to say some things and please tell me if my assumptions are missing a key point of this match.

Originally Posted by me

Understand also that I'm not at this time proposing this!! All I wish to know now is if my limited time for thinking has caused me to misjudge the situation. IF it is determined that my thoughts are correct, then we can move on to actual discussion of options.

(Basically, I don't want anyone claiming I'm purposefully pushing something harmful in willful ignorance of some key point. I'd be an idiot to assume that said key point won't be brought to light given the makeup of this village.)

You're doing exactly the obvious annoying thing that I was warning against! I had no time to prepare for the game and I was making all of my posts either during class or while trying to supervise little kids in a computer lab, and in a revolutionary game with brand new rules such a set-up was bound to cause me problems. That's why I spent time tossing ideas around and such to make sure that by the end of Day 1 I had a much clearer picture of things (basically delegating much of the sitting and pondering that I normally do to other people).

And you'll note in the quotes above that I had a nagging suspicion that some annoying chump would latch onto this and say, "Ah ha! He's trying to mislead us! Evil!" which is why I tried to be as obvious as possible that I was NOT trying to get people to adopt my ideas but rather tell me if they were flawed FIRST.

The fact that's it's you of all people doing this incredibly obvious hack-job on me is extremely disappointing.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Ang

Why would Shasta have been so unsubtle? No, wait, I can answer my own question. The excitement of being a Gifted gives one a great desire to boast, and makes one liable to deploy the overly confident double-bluff

False! As I said before, given this set up there is no purpose whatsoever to the Lovers hinting at one another. They already know each other, and it's extremely easy to prove their truthfulness (they COME BACK TO LIFE).

A Lover has no need to bluff or double-bluff, or hint or anything at all. A Lover in this game is simply an Ordo who rises from the grave, and is thus a PROVEN innocent. To say that Shasta was attempting any sort of Lover-based bluff I think is to misjudge his grasp of his role. (i.e. If I were a Wolf I wouldn't bother in the least trying to look for a Lover other than just looking for general jumpiness perhaps that might speak of a Gifted.)

[Thinlómien]

I'd possibly die laughing if phanty and Ang were both cobblers.

Originally Posted by Fea

The point is more that if we spend all of our time asking if Shasta was the seer or not, we won't be looking for other seer hints, we won't be searching for wolves, and we'll blow an entire Day talking about something that all boils down to the wolves taking the easy way out on choosing a kill.

And if we don't talk about it, we ignore all the evidence we have.

Originally Posted by Fea

Even without knowing the roles of the people we lynch, we can still ascertain the patterns of voting that led to lynches. For instance, phantom voting to avoid a double lynch even though it meant he didn't vote for his stated suspects makes phantom look good, because he could have just let multiple people die, but did not do so. The role of who died is irrelevant, the point is that phantom prevented a group lynch. That makes him look good.

Mithalwen, on the other hand, for attempting to provoke a multi-lynch, looks pretty bad.

Who voted for Manwe and what were their reasons? It doesn't matter that we don't know who he is, because we still have a traceable set of actions that led up to his departure and relocation.

Shasta. We don't know his role, but we know that he's probably not a wolf (because, let's face it, I doubt the wolves would try suicide if I wasn't one of them, offering it up). Therefore, we can look at reasons why not-wolf-Shasta would be targeted at Night. We can look at the people he interacted with. Or we can shrug it off and call it a random kill job.

The point is that we are still capable of identifying pieces of information and analyzing them. We just don't have all of the information handed to us.

Yes, I see. But there's still also evidence on Day1, too, especially in the end of it (forming voting patterns, alliances, skirmishes, possible hints in banter etc).


edit: xed with Nog who sounds really rather scary!

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lom

Psst. Try highlighting it.

I did.

Originally Posted by Lom

Still thinking about the Nog thing. Mostly something like: if the wolves caught something that I didn't and thought Shasta was a lover, it doesn't mean they killed him because he looked like a seer to them. Ergo, Nogrod doesn't look so fishy. Makes more sense?

Having dinner now, but then I should leave you and vote.

Got your point. Thanks! Also, dinner at 10.30 PM?

Nog's reaction to Agan and Shasta being lovers looks fishy, can't pinpoint it but there's something really off in that post.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

Greenie will be elevated from Koala to Swarm of Killer bees if she votes for Nessa. That looks like an attempt to stay out of the main confrontations going on today and make a vote for someone who is either not likely to be lynched or a bandwagon victim if people start getting cold feet about Nog, Phantom or Glirdy. I'm understanding the uncomfortabality about Nog and Mith, because I'm feeling the same way. What I'm not understanding Greenie, is why that's not strong enough to earn your vote, and thus why Nessa? I know you said her vote bothered you yesterday, but today there's been enough shenanigans between Nog, Phantom and Mith that I think is suspicious enough.

Nessa is the one I have the most solid unease with, based, I admit, largely on her very strange vote yesterDay. As for Mith and Nog - Mith I'm just totally at a loss with and therefore wouldn't like to vote, and Nog is more confusing than downright wolfy. Or was, more like, because he's seriously giving me the creeps now. And I don't really see how voting for Nessa would be more suspicious than voting, say, Nog who seems to be quite a common suspect (ie. quite easy for a wolf to jump on if he is, in fact, innocent).


EDIT: x-ed with Lomz

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Got your point. Thanks! Also, dinner at 10.30 PM?

Blame Agan the cook.

Okay, Boro has a fair point about Glirdy looking like a cobbler. That means I'm actually not going to vote him, because I think the wolves are our primary target. The same logic also saves Phantom and Ang from my vote toDay.

And I'm not really sure if Lottie isn't just a rather confused and possibly slightly lazy or time-limited ordo.

So

++Wilwa

I'm aware this is not the most reasoned of all votes, but call it a gut-feeling. Read her post where she quotes Boro. It's just somehow smug, the tone, she gives the impression that she is slightly less confused than the rest of us, which she would be if she only entered the game after nice Nightly briefing by her pack. Also, the wolves have more reason to enjoy the confusion than us, because after all, their objective is just to slaughter while we really need to watch out for what we're shooting at.


edit: xed with Greenie

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Nog's reaction to Agan and Shasta being lovers looks fishy, can't pinpoint it but there's something really off in that post.

Originally Posted by Lommy

edit: xed with Nog who sounds really rather scary!

etc. etc. etc.

I'd appreciate some real points to refute before I go to sleep than this wishy-washiness which just piles up into common knowledge all those who don't actually read the thread but just vote offhand stick with.

I have nothing against dying after a decent fight with crafty wolves & cobblers or misguided ordos, but that is just plain annoying.


EDIT: x'd with Lommies & Greenie

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

etc. etc. etc.

I'd appreciate some real points to refute before I go to sleep than this wishy-washiness which just piles up into common knowledge all those who don't actually read the thread but just vote offhand stick with.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Well past bed-time, once again.

++ Nog

I don't need to underline this, do I?

But well, like Ang, tp and Fea have already said, gaining a chance to enter the Mandos thread would be interesting indeed.

Speaking of which... I have noticed some of you guys speak of people peeking at the dead-thread prematurely is more or less understandable and kind of obvious people do it (tp even admitted doing that, which actually fits well with my thought of him being the cobbler). And looking at the number of views there (182) thus far strongly suggests it's not done only by the mods and now two players, added with random 'Downers just curious what the thread is about.

So let me strongly disagree and protest.

Keep away from it. Really.

Looking there is unsportsmanlike and bad gaming. And what's the joy of winning if you gain it by deceit?


Some suspicions (and hopefully reasons to trust) coming forwards in a moment or two.

[Nogrod]

So my take on things so far.

Starting with the more or less obvious.

Aganzir & Shasta = Beren and Lúthien

I believe it.

As I was afraid of toDay after connecting the dots: Shasta panicked because of one suspicion because he knew he had a dream-role and his lynching would be bad both for his once-in-a-lifetime game and for the village as it's quite improbable Mänwewas the seer (and if he was, he couldn't probably tell him much when returning being lynched on D1). I still wonder why he was that panicky, but that's the only reasonable explanation - which we will learn about toMorrow. If this is a sham Shasta will not come back.

Also, the way Aganzir behaved fits in nicely. She jumped on me for understandable, even if wrong reasons. And like lovers do, they don't accept their loved one made a mistake so it had to be someone else doing it. It looks quite obvious to me - on a level things can be obvious in a ww-game... Well, at least it makes sense.


Uhh, I see Agan has made a huge post... continuing in a moment. I think we need to agree on few things so I'd better check it first.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nog

I have noticed some of you guys speak of people peeking at the dead-thread prematurely is more or less understandable and kind of obvious people do it (tp even admitted doing that, which actually fits well with my thought of him being the cobbler).

I don't follow that point at all. The fact that I clicked on the thread right when Rikae opened it and being made aware of my mistake thanks to her opening lines... How does that indicate anything at all?

Originally Posted by Nog

So let me strongly disagree and protest.

Keep away from it. Really.

Looking there is unsportsmanlike and bad gaming. And what's the joy of winning if you gain it by deceit?

Now here you're just agreeing with me. I said earlier that I gave my word not to read the thread and I intend to honor my word, and that I'm very paranoid about being put at a disadvantage because of it (i.e. I'll be completely ticked if I suspect it's being done).

Anyway... Back to your earlier post- You still haven't responded to what I said here. It seems to me you started off your suspicions of me by reaching big time and now you're building further assumptions based upon the opinion that you formed through the initial sloppy grasping.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

False! As I said before, given this set up there is no purpose whatsoever to the Lovers hinting at one another. They already know each other, and it's extremely easy to prove their truthfulness (they COME BACK TO LIFE).

A Lover has no need to bluff or double-bluff, or hint or anything at all. A Lover in this game is simply an Ordo who rises from the grave, and is thus a PROVEN innocent. To say that Shasta was attempting any sort of Lover-based bluff I think is to misjudge his grasp of his role. (i.e. If I were a Wolf I wouldn't bother in the least trying to look for a Lover other than just looking for general jumpiness perhaps that might speak of a Gifted.)

Yeah, but... Shasta actually did go out of his way to joke about being Lúthien. So whether it made sense for him to try a double-bluff or not, it seems that's what he did. (I'm assuming Agan's telling the truth.)

So– was that what put the wolves on his trail? After all, nobody seemed to take it seriously at the time. And would that mean our wolves are showing great subtlety– or none whatever? ("Duuuh... well, he said he's Lúthien...")

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Speaking of which... I have noticed some of you guys speak of people peeking at the dead-thread prematurely is more or less understandable and kind of obvious people do it (tp even admitted doing that, which actually fits well with my thought of him being the cobbler). And looking at the number of views there (182) thus far strongly suggests it's not done only by the mods and now two players, added with random 'Downers just curious what the thread is about.

So let me strongly disagree and protest.

Keep away from it. Really.

Looking there is unsportsmanlike and bad gaming. And what's the joy of winning if you gain it by deceit?

Quite right– and all I can say is, whoever's been looking at the thread, it isn't me.

EDIT:X'd with many.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I have noticed some of you guys speak of people peeking at the dead-thread prematurely is more or less understandable and kind of obvious people do it (tp even admitted doing that, which actually fits well with my thought of him being the cobbler). And looking at the number of views there (182) thus far strongly suggests it's not done only by the mods and now two players, added with random 'Downers just curious what the thread is about.

I did the same as the phantom before the game started ("there's no harm reading the narration, there isn't any information yet"). I also stopped reading after the very first sentence, and haven't peeked in since. I don't think that tells anything about phantom whatsoever.

I think you're underestimating the honesty of the werewolf players. I just can't imagine anyone cheating.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Anguirel

I talk about the Dead Thread because I'm interested in it. Aren't you?

Well, I assume we all are, but there is little sense in speculating before we get there, right? Personally, I disapprove of talking about it, because I think we can have no information about it, at least until we are there or until somebody returns.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Mänwe is a cobbler? Surely. Perfectly possible. If he thought both me and Shasta were innocents that "fueling the flames" -comment that probably got him lynched would look like a cobblery one.

I said innocent, not ordo, or ordinary innocent. Meaning he's not a wolf (whom the others tried to save). I'm a bit puzzled of the way you try to make me look suspicious... Are you trying to make me suspect you? Well, no deal done.

I would paraphrase your own words: Are you trying to make US suspect YOU? This sounds like what they call "retcon" (for people who might not know what it means, you can look it up in some online dictionary for sure). I mean, since when has Cobbler been "innocent"? Don't give us that: Rubbish and more rubbish. No, I don't trust Nog, not after this on top of everything. This-is-weird.

I have similar feelings about Lommy, maybe the whole clan is somehow bad in this game. Well, I don't know about Greenie - she is rather smoothly posting, but perhaps that's just it? No, anyway, I just feel bad about those.

Likewise, my opinion about Lottie has not changed for the better since yesterDay, although I'm still wondering if she is just the Cobbler. Possibly if I were to name three Cobblers, it could be Lottie, Nog and either Phantom or Lommy. Although I think it's more likely that Phantom'd be a Wolf, if anything. I'm not sure if I have ever encountered him in Cobbler-mode, but I would somehow expect him to behave differently, thinking of that.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

Legate - not having played with Manwe before, I was unaware that he was a particularly frequent scapegoat; while I regret having played a major role in lynching an unoriginal target, I must say he clearly picked the right game...perhaps he'd booked his bed in Mandos early.

Well, agreed. And I know that many people here wouldn't know about this history of Mänwe... but that does not have any impact on the game itself, of course: Wolves would still lynch him because he's an easy target, etc., etc... so the fact that you didn't know about this has obviously no influence on you voting him or not, whatever your real motives were.

Originally Posted by Ang

I agree that Glirdan's comparison involving seers was unwise, but it seems to me not necessarily malicious. I must say that I'm known Glirdan as a Cobbler so often that I have illogical and unmathematical resistance to imagining him in that role yet again. I lean towards incautious innocent.

Anybody can post stuff like that, though I would somehow think of the generally more cautious players (among whom I count Glirdan) not being so careless.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Where art thou gone? The day is bare,
the sunlight dark, and cold the air!
Shastanis, where went thy feet?
O wayward star! O maiden sweet!
O flower of Elfland all too fair
for mortal heart! The woods are bare!

Congrats, wolves. You killed Lúthien.

Oh, my. Well, means that we at least get info back from Mandos. Note: it does come to effect only the Day after, so the folks in Mandos (three after we lynch, unless we make some mega-lynch) will still get to vote one of them before Shasta returns, right?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Well of course we have a phabbler.

I mean I was thinking about it yesterDay and then a bit during the Night - as this time no looking back to the thread by Night will be futile as you don't die as such.

Basically he was talking sense, making good points, being reasonable... well what else do you expect from tp? And I actually thought him a good and helpful ordinary innocent there and then.

I cannot once again agree on this, this once again seems false, "retcon". I would say that Phantom is never "reasonable" when he is innocent - if such a word would be used for his innocence, then carelessly at most, but not consciously, because let's face it, he's NOT. He is "inventive" in his own way, but not "reasonable". I think a normal, reasonable (sic) person would never use that word in the context you do, i.e. as a sign of innocence of tp, which is about to be reevaluated. (I don't know if you who are reading can understand what I mean by this, but simply it is, I think Nog is using very weird language and on very weird occassions, which he seems making up.) This sounds to me like once again Cobbler Nog pulling on straws.

Originally Posted by Anguirel

However, I've just seen Aganzir's revelation. Weird if true. Why would Shasta have been so unsubtle? No, wait, I can answer my own question. The excitement of being a Gifted gives one a great desire to boast, and makes one liable to deploy the overly confident double-bluff (cf WW II, my disastrous outing as Guardian; sorry if I'm boring you, whippersnappers).

Why are you even questioning that? I mean, it would be far weirder for somebody to say "I am a Lover and my darling is dead", since we'd learn the other Day anyway. Unless the person was killed or something.

All in all - not much time, once again, alas. But I am going to make a list of whom I suspect and whom I might choose from toDay, and decide whom to vote soon.

EDIT: x-ed with two last posts at the previous page and with everybody after...

[Thinlómien]

Innocent
Agan - feeling like quoting a Finnish folk song which is about a bear whose biggest crime was endless love.
Fea - seems fine enough, more invlolved and sensible than normally, which I like.

In-between
Nogrod - gives me headache, to be honest.
Greenie - kind of to the point but there's something a bit different in her manner than usual. Can't say what, though, so not saying anything more yet.
Ed - mostly, reminds me of Winnie the Pooh. It's just an irrational association I get from reading her posts and it's all I have this far.
Nerwen - under the radar.
Legate - no idea.
Nessa - see above.
BG - has she even posted yet...?
Sally - where is Sallycake?
Boro - seems innocent and guilty at the same time.
Mith - I think I can usually read her pretty well, but this time I have no clue.

Suspicious-ish
Glirdan - not entirely a fan of his case against me.
Lottie - hasn't done anything useful to put it bluntly, only phangirled. (Don't worry I heart you anyway, Lottiepop!)
Wilwa - the little I've seen of her is just off. Her manner is somehow smug (in the lack of a better word), and it makes me uneasy.
the phantom - smells of pie.
Anguirel - see above, although the stench is not as strong in his case.


edit: xed with both

[the phantom]

Well, at least with that last revelation we can now predict what's been going on in the Dead Thread.

Manwe: Dies and iz dead. Darn. So, um...
*waits*
Manwe: Vote or something?
Rikae: No.
*waits*
Shasta: Dead 2. *#$(#@!!
Manwe: Yay! I haz friend! What R U?
Shasta: Lover, lol
Manwe: Nuh uh
Shasta: Um yeah
Manwe: rly?
Shasta: yeppers
Manwe: Oh noes! I'll B alone again!
Shasta: We vote & stuff?
Rikae: Yes.
Shasta: Coolz.
Manwe: Woot!
Shasta: ++ Manwe
Manwe: ++ Shasta (x-post)
Shasta: ROTFL!!
Manwe: LMAO!!

I think that's about right.

[A Little Green]

Well past bed-time, once again.

++ Nog

Since I figured a Nessa vote would be pretty much a throwaway. A bad premise, but that's it.

[Nerwen]

Back and reading.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

if the wolves caught something that I didn't and thought Shasta was a lover, it doesn't mean they killed him because he looked like a seer to them. Ergo, Nogrod doesn't look so fishy. Makes more sense?

If the wolves caught a lover hint, they were extremely paranoid. During his early banter Shasta said he'd have to be Lúthien if Nerwen was Beren. Incidentally, it was true, but that's all there was. So no it doesn't make sense.

Originally Posted by the phantom

False! As I said before, given this set up there is no purpose whatsoever to the Lovers hinting at one another. They already know each other, and it's extremely easy to prove their truthfulness (they COME BACK TO LIFE).

Exactly and that's what we agreed - instead we were going to suspect each other if need be in order not to be night-killed.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So what I was afraid was true then?

And what exactly were you afraid of?

Looking at it from this POV makes it a bit more sensible though, as I could imagine Shasta being so excited to play lovers with Agan that he could freak out that way with a slightest suspicion (well actually not, it still feels soo odd way from him to react as I think I was the only one supecting him there).

You are underestimating him (psht, as if playing lovers with me was so unusual for him ). He was seriously annoyed with you and thought you were being deliberately mean.

But I do understand it now as you have a right to say this all started because I suspected him. But then again, he made very badly informed accusations and, sad to say, messed it up himself.

Hmm. I seem to remember we both agreed you looked freaking suspicious. See my post 90, that's where it started for me. (Oh and I actually left a hint - the beautiful lady I'm possibly going to paint was no one else than Lúthien Tinúviel. We discussed you on MSN.)

I am willing to vote for Nog today. He is false and needs to die. Remember Nog, death is not the end - and if you're innocent, you can surely help us even after your death.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Got your point. Thanks! Also, dinner at 10.30 PM?

Nog's reaction to Agan and Shasta being lovers looks fishy, can't pinpoint it but there's something really off in that post.

Yesterday we had dinner at 1 am.
And I totally agree about Nog's reaction. It not only looks like damage control but also as if he was trying to... twist everything.

I like the fact that Greenie voted for Nog but not that she did it after Boro threatened to suspect her more if she had voted Nessa.

Nog if you want reasons, I can naturally go through my posts and make a summary of what I've said of you so far. My main (rational) argument against you is that you should know better, ergo you're playing dumb, and I can't see an innocent you doing it.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

And what exactly were you afraid of?

That Shasta was the ranger... or even more likely a lover. Just go back there and look at the posting (and not you MSN as we others don't have that priviledge), and anyway try to look at it from an outsider's POV as to how serious the situation was for him to get lynched at that point when we both made our last posts on D1. His reaction was so overdone it made no sense, but the wolves probably picked it, just because of it.

(psht, as if playing lovers with me was so unusual for him ).

Well, that was the point that made me see it... Sorry, meta-reasoning is always bad, but here I think it applies. Even if I'm not going to say what I believe stands or falls with it. Let's say it's one slight confirmation of what I think.

He was seriously annoyed with you and thought you were being deliberately mean.

As I felt I was one of the scarce people trying to make points and really do something on D1 I could say I found his sudden suspicion and decision a mean one. And I must say he started it. He just made a bad decision there.

I am willing to vote for Nog today. He is false and needs to die. Remember Nog, death is not the end - and if you're innocent, you can surely help us even after your death.

Well technically yes, if I feel like doing it after all this crap you guys load on me with no real points to back it... but Mandos does actually call me. It would be soo interesting to get to take a look and play there.

So I'm kind of lingering between the basic gut-feeling of not willing to get lynched as an ordo and looking forwards to that dead-thread...

And I totally agree about Nog's reaction. It not only looks like damage control but also as if he was trying to... twist everything.

Would you be more specific here so that I could make it right? This really baffles me.

Nog if you want reasons, I can naturally go through my posts and make a summary of what I've said of you so far. My main (rational) argument against you is that you should know better, ergo you're playing dumb, and I can't see an innocent you doing it.

Think outside the box of your love, darling. This game is much more complex we can see... at least I have have gotten new insights into this game day and night and I still don't claim to understand how this game works.

But it doesn't work well if a lover plays overtly stupidly on D1. That much I think we all can assess.

Sorry, I don't mean to be mean. But you have to face it he acted stupidly. And that it was not me who killed him but the wolves.

Just think again.