TIG XCIV– WHere the Stars Are Strange (Game thread)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Now that brings something interesting.

I was just about to post how Eönwë's last long post just screams "I am making up stuff, echoing general opinions on people in the village and such". (I was just about to go to sleep after that, too. I think I might still do that, but I not sure if it will be such a calm sleep after all, anticipating mess in the morning.)

Now... what to make out of this revelation. I am not 100% convinced, because of above reasons, about Eönwë's genuineness (that's not a word, is it? What should it be? Genuinity? Sounds even worse). I can well imagine him being a hasty Wolf and in the view of being lynched soon, he wants to save his skin and/or drag the real Seer out.

That said!!! Just occured to me. Steve, if you ARE real Seer, you SHOULD tell us the name of your Ordo. Because either you get night-killed or the ordo does, but the Ranger can protect you first Night, and the Ordo after that. So you SHOULD tell us.

And that by the way further fortifies my belief in Eönwë's fakeness. Really.

I am not convinced in any way that Nogrod is innocent, but I am rather convinced, now thinking about it more and more, that Eönwë is just fake. A rather not very well done Wolfy Seer-revelation-attempt, since he does not know whom he should reveal as ordo, because he does not know whether to name a packmate or not...

Hmm. It is of course still possible he is not lying. But I really don't like it.

Also it is interesting for him to suddenly have me on top of his suspect list right after I got a vote, while I don't believe he had suspected me so much before.

EDIT: x-ed with Nog and Zil

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

That said!!! Just occured to me. Steve, if you ARE real Seer, you SHOULD tell us the name of your Ordo. Because either you get night-killed or the ordo does, but the Ranger can protect you first Night, and the Ordo after that. So you SHOULD tell us.

No, he ought to wait until toMorrow and leave the Spies guessing. And the fact that you are pushing otherwise makes me suspect you all the more.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

No, he ought to wait until toMorrow and leave the Spies guessing. And the fact that you are pushing otherwise makes me suspect you all the more.

Excuse me, but I've played in like twenty to forty or maybe even more WW games and as far as I recall, upon revealing, the Seer most often revealed ALL his dreams.

And really, your behavior is totally driving me mad. It's not even that I would not consider your opinions as possible - it's ok that somebody trusts Steve, that happens with both real and fake revelations, and it's not like I am 100% convinced he is lying either, it just seems more probable given all that's happened - but you seem to have just a set pattern of behavior which is always... completely against all logic. Come on, I know you are an experienced player, so what is this? Voting immediately as soon as you see it. Not even a moment of pause to think.

Bah. This is ridiculous. You are the Cobbler, whatever goes. Are you an Acolyte who could pick your role from the choice of Seer and Cobbler or whatever? It really seems that way, honestly.

Going to sleep... I'll be back to vote before DL. The question I put before myself is this - whether it is ok to lynch Steve (if it seems he really is faking this), or whether to keep him around for the Night and try to see if the WWs attack him - simply: whether to risk the possibility that he is the real Seer after all. But how are we going to know otherwise than lynching Nogrod? He might start listing "dreamt" ordos or whatnot, eventually he'd be exposed, but after how long? Also, the WWs might want to kill the real Seer during the Night, which is not such a good idea.

Too much now. Really going to sleep. Think, people, is all I can advise now...

EDIT: x-ed again since my last

[Inziladun]

Have it your own way, Legate. Can you actually give a valid reason not to believe Eönwë, at least for now? Yes, it's possible he could be a bluffing Spy. Is it likely? No. He'd have no chance of surviving toMorrow. Why would the Spies make a sacrifice like that if they don't have to?
It makes sense that, having dreamt and then accused Nog, he might now be fearful of being lynched. People have talked about voting for him. Or, if he survives the Day, killed at Night (assuming Nog is indeed evil). So for me this has a ring of truth. If I'm being fooled, it's repworthy, and I'll take my hat off to Steve.

x/d with [B]Nog/B]

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

When I say I am going to sleep...

...I instead go and check Steve's posts. Okay, reevaluating.

I went through Eönwë's posts of toDay plus his list from the Day before, and it is true he in fact does start speaking about Nog straightaway from the beginning of toDay (where he is merely uncertain the Day before). It would also make sense to dream of Nog if he was unsure of him, it's a good pick: a vocal player, with good record, etc etc, a good pick in general.

Eönwë was going after Nog toDay from the start and very strongly, and we've been all wondering (or at least I was, and some others too, I believe) about why he was using such a strong, confident language. As if he knew. Well, indeed - maybe he knew.

So in fact, after seeing all this, I am for giving Eönwë a shot. I mean, not a shot in the head, but not lynching him, at least. Even protecting him, I suggest to the Ranger.

We should not have that much to lose, after all. The only question is then whether to trust and try (i.e. lynch Nog) or do something else.

But I can sleep on that first.

(Where that case puts Zil is a different thing, but I am not going to rack my brain anymore. This time I am REALLY going to sleep.)

EDIT: x-ed since my last.

Good night.

[Inziladun]

It's notable how strongly Nog and Legate are reacting due to one person (italics for Lommy ) voting for Nog.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

We should not have that much to lose, after all. The only question is then whether to trust and try (i.e. lynch Nog) or do something else.

But I can sleep on that first.

I hope you read my latest post or count the scenarios yourself before voting... We have all to lose. Everything, if this bluff goes through.

Goddammit, it's too late (5PM)... A vacation and evil forces trying to make it their win in a ww-game are just a combination I find it hard to sleep on.

Originally Posted by Legate

Isn't that a bit strong words?

I don't see Zil denying it.

[Inziladun]

You're taking an awful lot for granted, Nog.

1. That I'm the Acolyte.
2. That the Acolyte is evil, or will choose to become so.

You have no proof of either of those things.

How do you know the score on the Acolyte? We have hints in the narration, but nothing further. Your reaction to Eönwë's reveal is telling.

If you're killed and not evil, then the village gets Eönwë, a Spy. Then they can kill me, if they wish.

[Nogrod]

I'll make it once more so that you see where we are... (and then I need to go to sleep vacation or not)

We are 13 people now.

13

4 wolves
1 acolyte (who kills at Night, seemingly allied to the baddies, killed Eruhen)
8 innocents (including a ranger and a seer)

If you lynch me and the wolves kill someone, and the Acolyte continues the bloody path correctly to his evil aims, the tally toMorrow will be:

10 people on Day3

10

4 wolves
1 Acolyte (Zil)
5 innocents

If the baddies then reveal themselves to each other, it's game over as they can organize a 5-5 vote leading it as 4-4 into the Night and game over - or if evenone innocetn votes wrong they will jump on it and end it already toMorrow.


~*~

And even if a minor detail goes wrong they can afford it.

And on the other thought, it is possible that after G55's, Boro's and Eönwë's pre-decided effort seemed to fail (I have not seen the guys to answer my question about their accusations), Eönwë felt too much pressure (for a good reason as I think most everyone - other than the wolves - were thinking he was making himself more suspicious than me with his "case"), so he decided to go for a fake reveal without the counsel of the others...

But whichever way it is as to why Eönwë made his fake reveal, they have chances to win easily if you lynch me toDay.


And the real seer should really think about this closely.

We can't afford to lose an innocent in principle, but there sure are some chances (the Acolyte might not have a kill every Night, the ranger might save someone etc.). If we lynch Eönwë toDay, we're one wolf down, and you get one more dream (I'd suggest Boro or G55) while the ranger protects you. Then we'd have a second wolf, most likely. But you can of course come forwards and reveal the falsity of Eönwë - especially if you have other good news to bring.

But up to you. Certainly. If you think you're safe and my death will help us, go that way and win it for us.


EDIT: X'd with a lots... but it turned out just a few long ones.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Have it your own way, Legate. Can you actually give a valid reason not to believe Eönwë, at least for now? Yes, it's possible he could be a bluffing Spy. Is it likely? No. He'd have no chance of surviving toMorrow. Why would the Spies make a sacrifice like that if they don't have to?

He doesn't need to survive toMorrow as they have the advantage in numbers... look back at my tally.

If you lynch me toDay (and Night-kills happen), it is 10 people toMorrow. With the aid of the Acolyte (looking at the way you post Zil I'm pretty sure you are it, and you align yourself to evil, that looks like granted now, if not earlier) that means 5-5.

So even if there is a double lynch toMorrow (the goodie candidate vs. the baddie candidate - which requires all the goodies to hold together!) it will end up with 5-5 votes. And then the baddies devour the rest as the number of them is equal.

Or even if the Acolyte is not counted there and then, it's easy to see how they will force the win with ease the next Night - fex. by openly revealing themselves to each other during the Day so as not to make mistakes.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Just a note to all the people who have on the last page been talking about me not trusting Steve and pondering lynching him still the same day: Have you noticed that I have completely changed my mind on that?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

When I say I am going to sleep...

...I instead go and check Steve's posts. Okay, reevaluating.

I went through Eönwë's posts of toDay plus his list from the Day before, and it is true he in fact does start speaking about Nog straightaway from the beginning of toDay (where he is merely uncertain the Day before). It would also make sense to dream of Nog if he was unsure of him, it's a good pick: a vocal player, with good record, etc etc, a good pick in general.

Eönwë was going after Nog toDay from the start and very strongly, and we've been all wondering (or at least I was, and some others too, I believe) about why he was using such a strong, confident language. As if he knew. Well, indeed - maybe he knew.

So in fact, after seeing all this, I am for giving Eönwë a shot. I mean, not a shot in the head, but not lynching him, at least. Even protecting him, I suggest to the Ranger.

We should not have that much to lose, after all. The only question is then whether to trust and try (i.e. lynch Nog) or do something else.

But I can sleep on that first.

(Where that case puts Zil is a different thing, but I am not going to rack my brain anymore. This time I am REALLY going to sleep.)

EDIT: x-ed since my last.

Good night.

Otherwise...

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Seriously? Guys. Look at the Eruhen kill. It's pretty clear at this point that the Acolyte, if not a traditional werebear, at least has the power to kill by himself (I say him because Nog being a wolf doesn't mean his points about Inzil being the Acolyte aren't valid - I've thought so myself since yesterday, as did Rikae apparently).

Nog is a wolf. Fine. Lynch him tomorrow. Lynching one wolf out of four isn't going to have any short-term effects - if we lynch Inzil (who clearly, at this point, doesn't have the best interests of the village in mind), we drop the number of kills per night to one.

I don't believe the Acolyte, even if the kill was his doing, has the power to do so every Night. That would be just too much of an overkill (literally). This is also a reply to what Nog had said about his counting of our chances, who might or might not be alive toMorrow etc... Never tell me the odds.

Anyway, aside from that, I am beginning to wonder about the fact that Shasta tends to propose some different people from the lynchees offered again. I mean, first Day, okay, and it was reasonable to follow; this could also be reasonable for its own reasons, but it is just really strange to stick to it so vehemently and urge the village to vote somebody else always... it is not the fact itself, it is rather who does it and that he does it repetitively and with such vehemence.

That said, I am now pondering the possibility whether to vote Nog or to vote Zil myself also - the question being whether it isn't really good to keep Nog around if we think he *is* a Wolf and lynch Zil in order to get more info (right now though I am not sure what to think of Zil, his actions in some way make him look better on reevaluation, then again, there is no denying he still acted weirdly in this game). In case we do lynch Zil and in case he is innocent, then I would look at Shasta a bit more than before. Although I believe there are better priorities: if Zil is lynched and innocent, we should lynch Nog primarily still.

BUT on second thought, no, really not - we should preferably try to vote for the same person in order to avoid a multiple lynch (or in the worst case, lynching the Seer along!!!!!!) - so in this light, Shasta's suggestion would really not look very good.

I mean, we don't know how many WWs have voted already, but given that there are FOUR of them, they could still steer the lynch in the way that there will be a double-lynch, even lynching Steve! So we should try avoid making it a possibility.

Therefore, I would rather urge all the innocents to vote just for one - and that would probably mean Nog. I am going to think about it still for a second, but I think it will be the best in the end. We will verify Steve's claim etc, so...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

What's the tally, by the way?

In any case, what I said - I think we should not split the votes anymore, or even give them the chance to be split.

++Nogrod