WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Thinlómien]

To be honest, my brain does not work especially as my head is in the wrong fandom (ahem) and I haven't played ww in ages. *complain complain complain*

What stands out to me the most is G55's "case" against Menel. It's almost a schoolbook example of a flimsy Day1 case that gets its maker lynched because it looks wolvish but is innocent ergo I keep thinking G55 is double-bluffing by trying to look too suspicious to be a wolf.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

What stands out to me the most is G55's "case" against Menel. It's almost a schoolbook example of a flimsy Day1 case that gets its maker lynched because it looks wolvish but is innocent ergo I keep thinking G55 is double-bluffing by trying to look too suspicious to be a wolf.

Or trying the ice with Agan's use of the feminine pronoun? A helpful innocent trying to get discussion going or something else? But it should be noted she does try unlike most of us others and therefore I'd like to give her the benefit of doubt at least this point on D1.

Menel I think just suffers from a long time of not playing and thus states the obvious - but for what reason he thinks it is a good thing to say those things? To make himself look a smart player we wouldn't want to lynch? Now what ios the motivation behind someone coming into a game trying first and foremost stay alive? On the other hand I remember some games from years ago when I think I suspected him quite frequently just because of the way he played so I'm not going to take that clue at least for now any further because of our history.

Now it may be I'm also in a bit of rust, but to me Zil's point about the cobbler needing to avoid Night-kills kind of raised some alarms. I knowperfectly well (been there, done that a few times), yes, that the cobbler has a special problem of staying alive during the Nights, but I didn't "remember" it. So reading it was like, "yes, you have a point there! - wait, I know that actually"...

So maybe I'm just coming into this game more unprepared I should or then Inzil is just so spot on into the game - or then he speaks of things that are close to him this time... Hard to say, as always - and I will not make that a reason to vote him anyway, but will take it as a reason to follow him more closely to be sure.


EDIT: X'd with three last ones...

EDIT: used the expression "benefit of trust" (instead of "doubt")... which I'm not actually sure what it might mean, but probably nothing I mean anyway...

[satansaloser2005]

Ugh. Migraine. No me for hours. I'll stop in later this evening after I've had some rest. Sorry, everyone.

[Thinlómien]

Okay, going to bed now since my head doesn't work much, I'll be around tomorrow before the DL. Just as the last comment I would like to do a bit of Captain Obviousing and say that since I've just checked the rules and roles and done some maths, we need to be sharp in this game. It is three wolves and a powerful cobbler against nine innocents. The odds could be much better.

Good night and see you around!


edit: xed with poor Sally. Get better!
edit2: am I the only who keeps switching the words in the thread title the other way around? I know, I'm corrupted and should go to bed...

[Meneltarmacil]

I suppose what I meant was:

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I hope I'm not putting my job on the line when I suggest that my honoured employer check for x-posting next time.

Ah. Noted.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

I suppose what I meant was:

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.

Well certainly, if we can spot a pattern of a particular person pushing innocent lynches, that would be something to zero in on.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Typical, I am about to leave and there is a host.

A couple of remarks, really briefly. (alas...)

The case of Agan calling everyone "she" is well-known, so it would hardly raise my eyebrows. But as for G55's vehement case, I can see her becoming intent on exploring some issue like that, so I am not intent to putting much behind either issue. Of course, that said, whoever thinks Agan is not fooling anybody is probably always wrong, but...

More interestingly, what's up with Lommy and Nog suspecting Menel? I think he said what he said just as part of the early banter, where nobody said nothing, and so did he. Then he sort of said that we should turn to the vocal ones if we keep missing our targets (provided the village still exists at that point, I would need to calculate the numbers to figure out, there are not that many of us as Lommy had pointed out), which I think is not so groundbreaking new theory either, but in fact, it is rather sensible. So no problem with that - it even has some substance. I just wonder if this is the thing I remember from ages ago, when Menel was playing and very often he ended up victim of some random accusation. I'd be wary of that, especially on Day 1.

As for Lommy's part at least, she sounds a bit more, hmm, accusatory than usual, but also a bit more confused, so perhaps she just needs to rest and recover (from both the body sickness and the apparent case of Iceandfirobsessionia ). I may just as well follow her example. I'll be back before DL, I hope.

EDIT: x-ed with Menel (what I said) and Zil.

[Galadriel55]

Back and reading...

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Not that I'd think our seer is dumb or anything, but she shouldn't forget about the cobbler before revealing if she hasn't targeted her before.

Oh, you're doing it again, this time for the Seer AND the cobbler. What's up with you?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Look at my last post and you'll see I'm also the seer.

Yeah. Which one are you?

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I seem to recall Agan having a habit of calling the Cobbler "she". Why? Ask the wind why it blows.

The Seer too, eh?

I don't remember Agan refering to an unknown role as a "she" before. Well, I would have had to learn that sooner or later. I apologize to the village for messing things, and - of course - I clear that point on Agan.

But I was so excited when I saw it!...

I hope you're better soon, sally! And Lommy!

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

edit2: am I the only who keeps switching the words in the thread title the other way around? I know, I'm corrupted and should go to bed...

<3 lol! ^^

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

The case of Agan calling everyone "she" is well-known, so it would hardly raise my eyebrows.

Maybe I forgot, or I just haven't played enough games with Agan, but this is the first time I see this habbit.

Originally Posted by Legate

I think [Menel] said what he said just as part of the early banter, where nobody said nothing, and so did he. Then he sort of said that we should turn to the vocal ones if we keep missing our targets (provided the village still exists at that point, I would need to calculate the numbers to figure out, there are not that many of us as Lommy had pointed out), which I think is not so groundbreaking new theory either, but in fact, it is rather sensible. So no problem with that - it even has some substance.

There's a difference between being sensible and being sensible and obvious. Saying "wolves are bad" is also a pretty logical and sensible thing. Where I'm getting at, is that I get what you're saying about Menel's posts being true and substancial, but I also get the other side of it, that they are what is to be understood without having to say it.

I find Menel's posts kinda awkward; not because he's saying the obvious truth, but because of how hard he defends it. When people commented on how he posts (ie being obvious), he repeated his point again with elaboration and etc., but was no less obvious. It's not like anyone disagrees with what he says, it's how he says it, and this does not change from post to post. I'll keep in mind that he is back from a very big break, and unless there's some more substancial point against him I wouldn't consider him more suspicious than most.

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

While the wolves may use a variety of playing styles, the most dangerous is the one who can manipulate the village, and as such, we need to be aware that a string of "bad luck" may not be entirely caused by chance.

Menel, please understand this - no one's questioning what you say. We know this, and we agree. People are questioning why you are saying it, since it's not something one can't figure out from reading the general guidelines to WW.


I'll put up a list of some sort a bit later.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

If there is a period of three or more Days in which only innocents are lynched, then we should look for a wolf among the most influential people during that time.

I think I can see what you mean Menel, but what is actually your point in here? Are you wishing to start a crusade against those who try to influence others' opinions aka. are playing the game already on D1?

EDIT: Xd with Legate

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I think I can see what you mean Menel, but what is actually your point in here? Are you wishing to start a crusade against those who try to influence others' opinions aka. are playing the game already on D1?

EDIT: Xd with Legate

I'm not. Influential people are not the problem.

Influential wolves, however, are. I've seen many villages brought down by silver-tongued beasts who have manipulated everyone into following them. I just don't want it to happen here.

[Meneltarmacil]

Sorry, did not have much time to finish the last post.

While the wolves may use a variety of playing styles, the most dangerous is the one who can manipulate the village, and as such, we need to be aware that a string of "bad luck" may not be entirely caused by chance.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Influential wolves, however, are. I've seen many villages brought down by silver-tongued beasts who have manipulated everyone into following them.

I have seen that happen a time or two. Sure. From the 50+ games I've played I've seen one or two. Maybe five years ago. Or something.

So my problem with your "crusade" (sorry about that word) is that it is totally overdone and a bit misguided. There have been loud wolves trying to do that but they have been lynched soon enough basically every time. I mean anytime someone manages to convince others to lynch A or B and they turn out innocents that person gets lynched even if he is innocent (I should know that)... and actually that's the reason why the wolves love loudmouths who are wrong.

So it's been a long time I have seen any wolf trying to openly lead the village as they know it's their downfall as sooner rather than later they will be lynched.

But yeah, it's been a long time since you last played and the dynamics have somewhat changed while you have been away. You'll see...

It is still fun, though.

[satansaloser2005]

Ugh. All right, all right, I'm awake, and off to make some early morning deliveries. I'll have a quick chat with everyone as I go and see who I think is responsible for this insanity.