WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Hats off for G55 from exceptionally well put up show!

(...)

That said, nothing has changed my view on Sally (look my last posts about her) and I'm pretty much okay voting her as well.

Okay, I hate this triumphalistic attitude Nog sometimes has (the first sentence). But anyway, this "I can vote either way" really sort of pings my radar, it is a bit as if it was "I can vote G55 (especially if she's a fellow Wolf), but if I can avoid it, fine". Or, of course, if the three of them are WWs (well, in a way that would be really lucky, but we saw a Seer death on Night 1, anything is possible...), then he also does not have much choice. Hm, thinking of that, it really isn't likely that they would all be, just because of this - if they were, Nog wouldn't come up suddenly with suspicion about sally if he wanted to drive people away from his fellows.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

It is true, though, that the Cobbler is probably to be found *somewhere* in the current mess. In fact I could even say Sally's behaviour might fit her being the Cobbler, unable to make up her mind if G55 is a wolf or not. –That's "might fit", mind you– I could perhaps say the same thing of Lommy, too.

Interesting point about Lommy, though again, I would sort of have expected the Cobbler being more "active" in making a mess. But, of course, maybe in this game the Cob can be a bit more careful, wishing to remain around to utilise the gift etc.? About sally, I think even *that* might be more plausible - with the randomness of some of her ideas. But that's exactly why I would like to see more from her, since now she just comes and starts talking some rather random things...

Okay, all in all, right now I feel like voting Nog, but then again, if G55 is going, then at least there will be peace of the questions and also, it might clarify the roles of sally and Nog on top of that (and either further support or lessen the reasons to my suspicion of Nog, and clarify something about sally's motives. It's also possible if e.g. she was a cobbler and it was not a Wolf-vote, or cobbler-vote or whatnot...).

EDIT: x-ed with some Nogs

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Good thing I stayed up so late (my time, anyway.) I just realized I never voted!

++G55

As I said, I feel like we pretty much have to know what she is - and if we don't lynch her, we'll likely be in the same boat tomorrow.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, I hate this triumphalistic attitude Nog sometimes has (the first sentence).

I feel everything but triumphalistic... and yes, I could vote either way as I'm not too sure about either but think that I have reason enough to wish to try either.

[Nogrod]

I see no reason to compete with how the vote is going... so

++ G55

[Nerwen]

Well, then, may as well be–

++G55

EDIT:X'd with Nog.

[Aganzir]

DAY 1
All she says is that Pitch's vote for Nogrod made her uneasy, thus she votes for him. Her vote puts Pitch in the lead, but since G55 was an ordo as well, it doesn't matter much - except if she's a wolf, it might point at Nog being one as well.

DAY 2
After Nog and Nerwen reach the conclusion Zil may have found G55 a wolf, sally jumps on it by picking on G55's choice of words (a really savage blow) when she laments Zil's death. She disappears for hours again, and then says she might still want to keep her around for a bit because it's fun to watch her stew - but this is obviously not the case because in her next post she wonders why we haven't killed her already. I think sally was one of the strongest pushers for a G55 lynch - granted, she wasn't as loud as some of the others, but she was pretty consistent in her suspicion. I may take the moral highground because I was about the only one who ended up not voting for her, but especially in hindsight it's a bit hard to see what eventually made G55 so suspicious to deserve all but two of the votes.

Now we reach sally's first major contribution. She quotes Inzil's vote for G55 and suggests his phrasing (totality of circumstance) seems like a possible seer hint. She mentions several times the suspicious placement of her Day 1 vote - at least if G55 had been a wolf. This gives me the weird feeling that we're supposed to interpret it as following: If G55 is a wolf, sally is suspicious. If G55 is not a wolf, sally is not suspicious. Yeah I know it may not be that simple and an innocent could well have said it, but it would be very convenient for a wolf, and it would explain why sally stressed it so.
Sally grants that it wouldn't have made sense for Inzil to dream of G55 on night 1 but proceeds to say she doesn't suspect G55 because of a possible dream but because of her actions. She clearly started off by basing her suspicion on Inzil's opinions, though.
Then she agrees with Lommy who said I'm enjoying myself too much to be innocent. She (who has played with me countless times before) asks if I always refer to the cobbler as a she. This is of course highly subjective but I think she should have known better (at the very least after it was explained on the thread), and her reasoning looks therefore like grasping at straws. She cites G55 and me as possible recipients for her vote, and says she won't vote for Menel (for being amusing) or Nog (because he and G55 are not in cahoots).
In a later post, she calls for others to discuss me. She has no real points against me though (apart from a too happy to be good attitude), but she apparently wishes to bring me under the spotlight.
Right after that, she asks:

Speaking of the cobbler, what do we do when we find him/her? After all, they can incapacitate the ranger, so they are just as dangerous in that regard as the wolves. Thoughts?

What exactly is this for? We don't find the cobbler until he's dead. We can't do anything about the cobbler. It's the first sentence that caught my attention. It basically says, "We want to find the cobbler!" while the second sentence works to cover the question's real nature. I think it's extremely creepy.

Later she votes for G55 (because I'm not an option) and says that cobbler or wolf, she's evil. I don't know at which point she came up with G55 being the cobbler, but what I noted is that she's awfully eager to get G55 lynched - no matter what, she has to die. And in my experience, it's usually wolves who show that kind of fervour when trying to get someone lynched. I remember several games of choosing a new main suspect each day and going strongly after them, one at a time, until we could secure the wolf victory. Sally's campaign against G55 reminds me of that.

DAY 3.
I may be biased by now, but this doesn't sit right with me:

Originally Posted by sally to Nog

If we lynch an innocent toDay, yeah, it's a pickle, but it's still not the doom you present it to be at the moment.
Unless of course you're just trying to destroy village morale, in which case, do feel free to continue your attempts, because it won't work on me.

Because lynching an innocent today is doom. It would only take one innocent to vote wrong tomorrow and we would've lost it.

And that's it. For Legate's information, my vote for sally yesterday wasn't retaliation - it was a reaction to a suspicion that made no sense and seemed both opportunistic and testing the ice for a possible cobbler reaction at the same time. It was a quick decision based on a gut feeling, but after an analysis, my logic supports my gut.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Kath

Aganzir - fairly innocuous post. However some suspicion of me and also keeps Menel out of her 'guilty' list yet specifically mentions being unsure of him. Didn't like the way I talked about the cobbler. Out of nowhere states that Nerwen is a wolf.

Just in case it wasn't clear, my first post(s) weren't serious at all. I didn't really suspect you, and I said Nerwen was a wolf because she joked I'd do that after she defended me against something. That's quite a flimsy excuse for a vote.

[Nerwen]

Back and reading.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Sally

Because lynching an innocent today is doom. It would only take one innocent to vote wrong tomorrow and we would've lost it.

Ye-es– but that's not what Nog was talking about, as is pretty clear from the subsequent posting.

[Nerwen]

Oh, and I just want this noted, before I say anything else: my connection was playing up like crazy the last few hours, and stopped me from saying all I'd have liked. Or I would have commented more on the folly, in this game, of lynching someone to remove a source of distraction/controversy– cf. my treasure's "we pretty much have to know what she is". I cannot say it's necessarily a sign of guilt, though, since G55 herself made the same argument. Still, I can't say I like it.

Now, what to make of Nogrod's reaction at the start of toDay? He must have honestly not registered Glirdan's role– a quite understandable mistake, given that a.) it wasn't mentioned in the narration, b.) there'd been no reason to suspect him and c.) punitive modfires of special roles are almost unheard-of.

From then on, I'm not sure. A wolf might have thought he saw the chance for a quick victory, provided he, his buddies and the cobbler could get it together, but been unwilling to come right out in case something went amiss. Or an innocent might well have just panicked.

[Nerwen]

Other headache-inducers:

Agan at #198 makes an excellent analysis of The Sinister Sally, bringisg out some points I don't think anyone else had. Then she winds up with a quite invalid suspicion, based on out-of-context quoting.

Kath at #196 (I'm working backwards here) has some interesting theories about why Lommy might have been killed, and some good comments on living players– but again, this includes a completely out-of-context reference of Agan's "accusation" of me, which was actually clearly a joke. (Drawing a longbow, I suppose it might have been preparation for a false reveal– but if that's why Kath mentions, she doesn't say so.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Shasta, Legate, Nerwen!!!

Just thought about new openings and tried to think who are the persons who have received little or no suspicion thus far... Scary list.

Okay. No time to pursue that or any other combination of players right now. Hopefully something better, later.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

PS. I still suspect Sally though, because of her totally unmerited and sudden buddy-buddying and tip-toeing from yesterDay.

Well, why not a compromise, Noggins, my dear? It could be Shasta, Legate and Sally. The first two weren't that keen on lynching G55 until Sally became the alternative, were they?

Actually, there's no reason anyone should be written off at this stage. For instance, Kath looks innocent for meta-reasons (not knowing who had been lynched on Day One)– but a Kathwolf could have been too busy either to check the narration, or talk to her packmates on Night Two.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, why not a compromise, Noggins, my dear? It could be Shasta, Legate and Sally. The first two weren't that keen on lynching G55 until Sally became the alternative, were they?

Actually, there's no reason anyone should be written off at this stage. For instance, Kath looks innocent for meta-reasons (not knowing who had been lynched on Day One)– but a Kathwolf could have been too busy either to check the narration, or talk to her packmates on Night Two.

My thoughts exactly. If she's busy during the days, there's no reason to assume she'd have any more time at night.

I'm still entertaining the possibility Menel could be a wolf as well (or basically anyone), but sally and Legate are the ones I'm the most worried about.

[Aganzir]

Okay, I've got to go.

++SALLY

I really really hope to lynch her today.

[Kitanna]

Agan sat up, sharpening her sword. She had been lucky the night before, but she knew her luck couldn't last. She just waited.

It was after midnight and nothing had so much as sniffed at her door. She continued to wait. Somehow she dozed off and awoke to the sound of breaking glass. Gathering up her weapons Agan pulled on a cloak and went out to face her foe.

The wind kicked up the freshly fallen snow. Its bitter gusts cut through her clothing, but still she soldiered on. There were shapes in the darkness. She'd be a fool not to know that the final fiend had brought the wolves into town. Steeling herself for the worst she brought out her sword and ran for the moving shadows before her.

In the morning her cloak was found, ripped and bloody. The villages' only source of protection was gone.

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler
Sally – Poisoned on Day 3, Wolf
Legate – Devoured by wolves on Day 4, Wolf
Aganzir – Walked out to meet her fate on Night 5, Ranger

The Living
Shasta
Menel
Nerwen
Nogrod
Kath

Day 5 Begins

[Nogrod]

Just popping in to state the obvious for now...

So five people, one of them a wolf: 4-1.

That means we have two attempts to get it right (heh, I have played that three-player last Day poker for two or three times and have always being an innocent and ended up being on the losing side... so let's hope we can win it already toDay).

So let's keep all the possibilities open and try to suspect everyone. And none should take those suspicions personally or get annoyed / hurt because of them as what we need the least toDay is retaliatory action between innocents.

To me the situation looks kind of two-fold: either there is a lame-duck wolf (Kath or Menel) who was not able to try and save Sally, or then a sneaky one who thought trying to save her at the last moments would have been too risky (aka. Shasta or Nerwen).

I'll try to take a decent look of all those possibilities & re-read yesterDay later in the evening.

But it would be nice to hear from you others as well...


PS. I'm going to be helping my mom with the laundry tomorrow the few hours around the DL so I might not be able to concentrate any deeper into the game then, but I should be able to take part at some level.