WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Nogrod]

You do walk in interestingly ambiguos terrain Legate, and that makes me quite uneasy.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Nog's "prophecies of doom" are certainly rather overdone, but looking at the number of players, a live Cobbler could have been potentially dangerous, maybe not toDay, but soon.

No. We would have lost toDay.

Three wolf votes + one cobbler vote = 4. Now there are four innocents, but unlike the wolves & at this situation the cobbler, they can't co-operate. Add to that the fact that wolves & cobbler will probably look into the thread in time and be interested to get the picture... so they'd had all it takes to secure four votes first.

Luckily I was wrong as the cobbler is dead.

There are many questions still existing and now it sort of seems that lynching G55 yesterDay did not actually clarify as much as I hoped it would, though at least it "clears space" for other things. Of the things it clarifies, it might possibly be only the thing that the votes of Nog and sally on Day 1 were not Wolves saving a packmate

No. It is not "might" or "possibly". It definitively proved it. G55 was an ordo, if you have "forgotten" that.

I though it would be redundant or at least not worthwhile to remid you that all the suspicion you might have gathered from D1 voting is now obsolete. Dead, gone, kaputt, over and dealt with.

But it looks like Legate is too happy to try and keep up that suspicion that it makes me, as I said, quite uneasy.

Originally Posted by Legate

(maybe that was also one reason for the WWs targeting Lommy, eliminating a person from the "different camp", so that eventually it would be more difficult to determine anything about the votes? Though there would probably be more reasons than just this, but it sounds rather logical to me).

Now this sounds believable, well possible at least. How nicely you manage to get under the skin of a possible wolf-train of thought!

We need some new openings toDay as it looks like we have stuck on wrong trails the first two Days, and we just can't afford a mislynch anymore.

After saying that I have to make a similar kind of announcement Legate made. I will be coming back before going to sleep and will probably have some time then. On the latter end of the Day I'm able to come in for a shortish time, but not for long. Sorry.

[Nogrod]

Shasta, Legate, Nerwen!!!

Just thought about new openings and tried to think who are the persons who have received little or no suspicion thus far... Scary list.

Okay. No time to pursue that or any other combination of players right now. Hopefully something better, later.

[Nogrod]

PS. I still suspect Sally though, because of her totally unmerited and sudden buddy-buddying and tip-toeing from yesterDay.

[Meneltarmacil]

As per my previous Days' statements, we should stand a good chance of finding a wolf if we look at the G55 bandwagon.

Specifically, I don't think a wolf actually started it, and probably did a back-and-forth "G55 or Pitchwife?" thing on Day 1.

After Day 1, much of the focus of conversations was on G55, who warned us that we should really look around at other people. A wolf in this case was probably trying to make sure that didn't happen. So we should be looking for someone who, during Day 2, kept trying to redirect suspicion onto G55.

I'll post an analysis of who that might be later.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yes, but the Wolves would first have to communicate with the Cobbler somehow.

Not really. The wolves could just have held back their votes until a sufficient number of players had voted for a non-wolf. Or the cobbler could have got himself lynched - in theory, at least, as Glirdy wasn't the most active player. In the end, all it would've taken was for one innocent to vote wrong tomorrow, and the wolves could've jumped on it. It's not like they were offered an automatic victory on a silver plate today, but as they are surely clever and all, I'm sure they would've found a way to steer the lynch in a favourable direction.

Yesterday I was feeling the worst about sally and Nog, but Legate has now pretty much replaced Nog on my suspect list. I'm also sorry about Lommy's death because I had gradually started to trust her, not the least because she followed my vote for sally. I'm also okay with Kath, so that would probably leave Nerwen or Shasta as the last wolf, or Menel because I don't think we can tell for sure if Zil dreamt of him. I read his posts and if I had to make a guess, I'd say he had decided not to leave hints yet - either because the chance of his early death was so slim, or he couldn't for some reason do that.

I'm off to see a friend now, will be back in some hours. I hope to take a look at sally and Legate then - the latter being maybe even more worrisome than the former because of the extent to which I disagree with his notions about people.

I'd also like everyone to remember that if two innocents vote for a different innocent, the wolves are free to do as they please with the lynch.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How about the cobbler saying: "Hi wolves, tell me what to do". That was my immediate plan of impersonating the cobbler after I saw we were reduced to 8 players. But then I saw the rule considering ties - and then I was told the cobbler was no more...

Yes, I see, though still, there would've been still more innocents - like I said, if the cobbler counts as innocent - and the WWs would still at least have to do a Night-kill, which the Ranger could've prevented. But yeah, whatever.

Naturally we should not drop "entirely everything". Heh, I'm not sure how suspicious I should take your wordings to be, though. "Entirely everythnig"? You really thought someone suggested that?

Well that's what seemed really suspicious to me, that you would suggest that. So if you didn't, then all right.

Anyway - okay, so I don't know how much time I will have still. I didn't have that much time after all anyway, but I managed to review the people I wanted.

Upon rereading Agan, I actually think she is not really worrisome in any special way. Yesterday, what triggered my interest in her came from her reaction to sally who voted her, Agan's vote for her seemed retaliatory. That is about the only thing, otherwise she had said a lot of sensible stuff and not really that much suspicious things, if you don't count all the "blood!" stuff, which was rather random. So I really don't feel the need to move her to any suspicious zone or anything.

Shasta was also not very striking on first Day, or in fact, on neither of them, because his posts are not very many. In any case, on first Day, he was maybe a bit "harsh" in reactions to some people, but that's about it. His vote (for G55) he claimed to be because of her original suspicion of Menel, yet then she backed away and voted Pitch instead. That's a sound reasoning. On Day 2, he continued with pursuing G55, the question is if he still found her suspicious or if it now just fitted his intentions that she was under heavy fire within the village. In a similar way, he raised a point about sally and also later slightly about Lommy. He had some good points too (like that the village should not focus only on one person - even though he said it in a context where the issue was something else at that moment, or pointing out Kath's inconsistency), but in the end the total amount of his posts is not a very big number. I would say he might be a under-the-radar type baddie who sort of fits into the flow, but he is not striking in any obvious way.

Last of all, Kath, she posted in the end probably even less than Shasta. Which is a pity, since at first she started relatively nicely and actively. Starting with discussing the Cobbler might have been a Wolf trying to turn the discussion into that (give signals to the Cobbler, make him give signals back; evidently the Cobbler did not react), but it might have been just inquisitive wish to start the conversation. She voted G55 on Day 2, based on that she thought her more likely Zil's Seer-dream than Menel. That may sound to some like a bit feeble excuse, but maybe too feeble for a Wolf. The most interesting point of all, however, is probably the "Pitch is not dead"-thing. I really wonder if a Wolf would make such a weird slip (I mean, the WWs probably should have the best idea about who is dead and who is not, unless she completely missed the game, like, rest of the Day and missing the Night or something as complicated). I cannot really imagine Kath making that up, so even though I dislike "meta-reasoning" as a rule, that would speak for her genuinity in my book.

All in all, I think - since I have to vote early - I might just go with my strongest suspicion at the moment, that being still Nogrod. If I have time, I could reread a bit of some old posts, but seriously not sure if I will have time. I shall be back still to vote in something like an hour or somesuch (or depends how long I stay up).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

All in all, I think - since I have to vote early - I might just go with my strongest suspicion at the moment, that being still Nogrod.

The reason for that being...?

Btw. where are you people? If no one else is ready to fight, neither will I use my late night for this. Honestly. Come forwards.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

No. We would have lost toDay.

Three wolf votes + one cobbler vote = 4. Now there are four innocents, but unlike the wolves & at this situation the cobbler, they can't co-operate. Add to that the fact that wolves & cobbler will probably look into the thread in time and be interested to get the picture... so they'd had all it takes to secure four votes first.

Yes, but the Wolves would first have to communicate with the Cobbler somehow. Okay, technically it is possible, but anyway, doesn't the Cobbler still count as innocent in the tally? So we won't have lost toDay. Anyway, this is irrelevant now anyway.

No. It is not "might" or "possibly". It definitively proved it. G55 was an ordo, if you have "forgotten" that.

I am not saying "it might possibly mean these weren't Wolves saving a buddy votes", I am saying "it might possibly be the only extra thing we learned from G55's death". That was the point of the paragraph, as you can see.

We need some new openings toDay as it looks like we have stuck on wrong trails the first two Days, and we just can't afford a mislynch anymore.

Whereas I agree that we definitely should be very careful and reevaluate stuff, it does not mean dropping entirely everything. I mean, for example for me, it really did not change that much. Your and sally's vote on Day 1 wasn't a Wolf-saving-Wolf vote, that is clear, but it does not change anything about the rest of the stuff you have been saying that I considered suspicious throughout previous Days. And of course, you being earlier under some scrutiny (also by dead Lommy, nonetheless!), now trying to completely erase everything we have been gathering in the past sounds rather... well, fishy. Does not really make me see you any better.

So here. I am going to take a look at Kath and Shasta and Agan, most of all, but it will be kind of spread throughout the whole evening...

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yes, but the Wolves would first have to communicate with the Cobbler somehow. Okay, technically it is possible, but anyway, doesn't the Cobbler still count as innocent in the tally? So we won't have lost toDay. Anyway, this is irrelevant now anyway.

How about the cobbler saying: "Hi wolves, tell me what to do". That was my immediate plan of impersonating the cobbler after I saw we were reduced to 8 players. But then I saw the rule considering ties - and then I was told the cobbler was no more...

But yes, that is redundant now.

I am not saying "it might possibly mean these weren't Wolves saving a buddy votes", I am saying "it might possibly be the only extra thing we learned from G55's death". That was the point of the paragraph, as you can see.

Ahh, okay. I did read it the other way, but I guess you're right. *language*

Originally Posted by Leg

Whereas I agree that we definitely should be very careful and reevaluate stuff, it does not mean dropping entirely everything. I mean, for example for me, it really did not change that much. Your and sally's vote on Day 1 wasn't a Wolf-saving-Wolf vote, that is clear, but it does not change anything about the rest of the stuff you have been saying that I considered suspicious throughout previous Days.

Naturally we should not drop "entirely everything". Heh, I'm not sure how suspicious I should take your wordings to be, though. "Entirely everythnig"? You really thought someone suggested that?

I actually posted a postscript saying I'm still suspicious of Sally, but because of something she did yesterDay, not because of her vote on D1.

I just hope we all are able to separate the two things when facing time-constraints or other such stuff. We just can't vote wrong toDay.