WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How about the cobbler saying: "Hi wolves, tell me what to do". That was my immediate plan of impersonating the cobbler after I saw we were reduced to 8 players. But then I saw the rule considering ties - and then I was told the cobbler was no more...

Yes, I see, though still, there would've been still more innocents - like I said, if the cobbler counts as innocent - and the WWs would still at least have to do a Night-kill, which the Ranger could've prevented. But yeah, whatever.

Naturally we should not drop "entirely everything". Heh, I'm not sure how suspicious I should take your wordings to be, though. "Entirely everythnig"? You really thought someone suggested that?

Well that's what seemed really suspicious to me, that you would suggest that. So if you didn't, then all right.

Anyway - okay, so I don't know how much time I will have still. I didn't have that much time after all anyway, but I managed to review the people I wanted.

Upon rereading Agan, I actually think she is not really worrisome in any special way. Yesterday, what triggered my interest in her came from her reaction to sally who voted her, Agan's vote for her seemed retaliatory. That is about the only thing, otherwise she had said a lot of sensible stuff and not really that much suspicious things, if you don't count all the "blood!" stuff, which was rather random. So I really don't feel the need to move her to any suspicious zone or anything.

Shasta was also not very striking on first Day, or in fact, on neither of them, because his posts are not very many. In any case, on first Day, he was maybe a bit "harsh" in reactions to some people, but that's about it. His vote (for G55) he claimed to be because of her original suspicion of Menel, yet then she backed away and voted Pitch instead. That's a sound reasoning. On Day 2, he continued with pursuing G55, the question is if he still found her suspicious or if it now just fitted his intentions that she was under heavy fire within the village. In a similar way, he raised a point about sally and also later slightly about Lommy. He had some good points too (like that the village should not focus only on one person - even though he said it in a context where the issue was something else at that moment, or pointing out Kath's inconsistency), but in the end the total amount of his posts is not a very big number. I would say he might be a under-the-radar type baddie who sort of fits into the flow, but he is not striking in any obvious way.

Last of all, Kath, she posted in the end probably even less than Shasta. Which is a pity, since at first she started relatively nicely and actively. Starting with discussing the Cobbler might have been a Wolf trying to turn the discussion into that (give signals to the Cobbler, make him give signals back; evidently the Cobbler did not react), but it might have been just inquisitive wish to start the conversation. She voted G55 on Day 2, based on that she thought her more likely Zil's Seer-dream than Menel. That may sound to some like a bit feeble excuse, but maybe too feeble for a Wolf. The most interesting point of all, however, is probably the "Pitch is not dead"-thing. I really wonder if a Wolf would make such a weird slip (I mean, the WWs probably should have the best idea about who is dead and who is not, unless she completely missed the game, like, rest of the Day and missing the Night or something as complicated). I cannot really imagine Kath making that up, so even though I dislike "meta-reasoning" as a rule, that would speak for her genuinity in my book.

All in all, I think - since I have to vote early - I might just go with my strongest suspicion at the moment, that being still Nogrod. If I have time, I could reread a bit of some old posts, but seriously not sure if I will have time. I shall be back still to vote in something like an hour or somesuch (or depends how long I stay up).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

All in all, I think - since I have to vote early - I might just go with my strongest suspicion at the moment, that being still Nogrod.

The reason for that being...?

Btw. where are you people? If no one else is ready to fight, neither will I use my late night for this. Honestly. Come forwards.

[Kath]

I'm going to be able to vote later tonight as it's not a school day tomorrow. Just thought I'd pop in and say.

Having quickly flicked through, I think Agan, sally and Nog could be an interesting wolf trio. Aga suspects sally but lessened her suspicion of Nog toDay in steady phases. Nog's 'fake cobbler/cobbler/no cobbler' business was ... interesting. sally? Don't know yet.

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, as for my planned analysis:

Nogrod looks like he might fit the bill for his Day 2 behavior.

I was looking over the posts from that day to find a point where someone other than G55 agreed with looking at other people, and I found one such instance.

Once Lommy had brought that point up, Nogrod turned up and instantly made multiple posts about G55. Nogrod later was the first person to question G55 on her "frustrated innocent" post after others were starting to waver on her.

I have also known Nogrod to play a very dangerous "influential wolf" in the past, so he's quite capable of pulling it off. Beware, villagers.

Sally also seems a bit suspicious, as she was the first to attack G55 on Day 2, with her focusing on G55's "savage blow" wording. Shasta suspected that this was an attempt at getting the villagers to focus on G55, reinforced by the fact that the first to jump on it was the Cobbler.

Sally also avoided suspecting G55 at one point, only to reverse course rather quickly after Nogrod's attack following Lommy's post.

EDIT: x'd with Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The reason for that being...?

Well, it's mostly the continuous suspicion I have of you. From Day 1, your behavior is this little by little feeding some suspicions (Day 2, BIG feeding, in fact). You were at the start of the initial debate about Menel, which might have been just testing water, and then you suddenly became active in the Pitchwagon. YesterDay, you were certainly the most vocal in the G55 suspicion - even though of course none of us has clean hands in this process, but then again, we of course cannot completely dismiss what was happening yesterDay, that's exactly what the WWs would want. In fact, if that was their intention, they in fact partially succeeded in that by now having, except for some Aganzir, basically all yesterDay's votes under the same "voting umbrella" (which once again btw brings me to the idea that that was their intention with the kill of Lommy). You were, I think (or correct me if I misremember), apart from Kath, I think the one person really pushing the "Inzil dreamed of Wolf G55"-theory, sometimes with a bit ridiculous arguments, even. Basically that.

It is true that it is now clear you weren't saving any packmate on Day 1, but the rest of it still holds. If I look around at all people here, you are the one who seems to me has been casting the most suspicions around and in fact leading the village's course the most, I'd say.

EDIT: x-ed with Kath

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, it's mostly the continuous suspicion I have of you. From Day 1, your behavior is this little by little feeding some suspicions (Day 2, BIG feeding, in fact). You were at the start of the initial debate about Menel, which might have been just testing water, and then you suddenly became active in the Pitchwagon.

With Menel I was kind of late and actually didn't so much suspect him but was asking why he was doing it (basically ending up thinking he was just out of touch), but if you look closer, the thing I was strongly against was the content of his message which was "lynch those who try to play and save the submarines" (to put it in somewhat strong terms) as I also clearly indicated he should not be lynched after coming back after such a long time.

So not Menel but what he suggested.

I don't think I suddenly became active in a Pitchwagon. He voted me against the basic reasoning an intelligent innocent keeps (don't vote someone with bad or fabricated reasons as that someone might be an innocent) and thus I thought he could be a wolf who doesn't think like an innocent has to, especially a wolf doesn't have to take care his reasons are as good as he can make as any vote for a wolf is a known vote and there is no such risk as an innocent's vote carries with it.

YesterDay, you were certainly the most vocal in the G55 suspicion - even though of course none of us has clean hands in this process

Like you say... and I was themost vocal yesterDay anyway as I had time then...

You were, I think (or correct me if I misremember), apart from Kath, I think the one person really pushing the "Inzil dreamed of Wolf G55"-theory, sometimes with a bit ridiculous arguments, even. Basically that.

Wrong again. Go and read again.

What I said was, that IF there was a seer-dream included (as to why they "knew" to pick Zil - as a possibility they got it right rather than just having a huge boost of luck), then there were two possibilities of which G55 made more sense - and actually fit nicely into the other pattern with Sally (remembering Sally's behaviour on D2 as well) etc.

If you go back and read you can see I have in one post two "arguments", one on how could it be Zil dreamt of Menel, and another on how it could be he dreamt of G55. Surely you don't try to say I was arguing them for real at the same time?

And anyway, without the hindsight we have now, I think the case with G55 being a dreamt wolf wasn't that far-fetched but actually fit in quite well with both the what happened around - and why they got Zil.

It is true that it is now clear you weren't saving any packmate on Day 1, but the rest of it still holds.

If you are an innocent, just reconsider as nothing you say holds as you can read from above. If you're a wolf as I now suspect, then what the heck... I must just hope everyone sees it.

If I look around at all people here, you are the one who seems to me has been casting the most suspicions around and in fact leading the village's course the most, I'd say.

If none casts suspicion around how are we going to vote, by rolling a dice? You actually agree, but at this moment this kind of thing suits your ends, doesn't it?

I may be bearing some considerable guilt on what has happened. I admit. But I'm not "triumphalistic" about it, as you cared to put it yesterDay. It's bad. But how about someone else started carrying the flag then? I think I have caued enough problems with my ideas about who's guilty thus far. So I'll leave it to you then. Or shall we roll a dice before the DL?

[Nogrod]

Menel (and anyone): Before you continue that "Nog lynched G55" meme, just answer one question.

Who do you think would have been lynched yesterDay had I been totally absent the whole Day?

[Meneltarmacil]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Menel (and anyone): Before you continue that "Nog lynched G55" meme, just answer one question.

Who do you think would have been lynched yesterDay had I been totally absent the whole Day?

I do not know. I suspect you want me to say "You would, for being a submarine" or "G55, because people would still have found her suspicious." Or even, "I would, because you somehow saved me."

The truth of the matter is that I don't care to speculate on what would have been. Any or none of the above could have happened.

I also didn't suspect you as a result of Legate's posts. I came up with a likely pattern of wolf behavior, looked for someone who fit it, and that someone just happened to be you.

[satansaloser2005]

I have been unavailable for most of the day and will continue to be so until quite late this evening. I'm just popping by to post this so people know I won't be around. Moving on.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

I also didn't suspect you as a result of Legate's posts. I came up with a likely pattern of wolf behavior, looked for someone who fit it, and that someone just happened to be you.

I hate myself for defending Nog because he's bound to be a wolf if I do it, but to be honest he's always like that. You look for a potentially influential wolf, you find Nog who's always influential and a loudmouth regardless of his role.

In other words, I'm back. I'll take a quick look at sally now.

[Kath]

The Dead
Kitanna - Left on the Brandywine to be eaten on Night 1, Moddess
Pitchwife - Beaten to death on Day 1, Ordo
Inzil - Strangled on Night 2, Seer
G55 – Committed suicide on Day 2, Ordo
Lommy - Kabobbed on Night 3, Ordo
Glirdan – Spontaneously combusted on Night 3, Cobbler

Lommy:
Mentioned that G55 seemed to be making a case against Menel in strong terms. Yet found Menel suspicious. Seems to feel Pitch and Nog are innocent. Everyone else in 'maybe' category. Suspected Menel and G55 but didn't want to vote for them as she felt it might be their general Day 1 suspiciousness confusing things. So voted for Agan on 'gut feeling'. Suspects Nogrod for 'bussing' a wolf comrade. Remained suspicious of G55. Says if G55 is a wolf then sally and Nog's votes are suspicious. Thinks Menel was the Seer-dream as he was the first person Inzil mentioned.

So talked herself out of thinking Menel was suspicious - could Menel therefore be a wolf and the wolves are using the general good-feeling toward Menel as a nice cover? Had Glirdan, Nog and Agan down as suspicious, and possibly Nerwen. Now, even if the wolves had thought Lommy might be the Ranger, she wouldn't have had any real extra information, so could she have been killed for getting near the mark? Don't think she's a trailless kill. She posted well. Thinks Nog was talking about what the wolves thought like an insider, was suspicious of sally, but thought G55 might be a useful lynch. This wording was odd. I was thinking maybe the wolves thought she was the Cobbler, but then it makes no sense for them to kill her! Roles are giving me trouble this game.

Voted sally but looks like she's getting sure about Nog and Agan being evil. This trio stood out to me earlier too. If even two of them are wolves killing Lommy was a good move here before she started pressing them.

It does surprise me that no one has looked at Lommy's posts. Particularly people like Nog, Nerwen, Legate.


The Living ~ Posts from Day 1
Menel - was talking about 'influential' wolves not necessarily loudmouths. I do think this has been misrepresented. There is a different between having an effect within the game and being a loudmouth. Thinks Inzil's post is suspicious and almost - praises Nog - for noticing and questioning it. Votes Inzil. This is quite random. There hasn't really been much in the way of suspicions and reasoning. Following a wolf-buddy's lead?

Legate - immediately looks at Inzil and Pitch for not having very content filled posts. Early to make this kind of accusation really! Just starting conversation or testing responses maybe. Has comments on Pitch, Inzil and Agan mostly. Thinks Nog has good recent posts and that G55 is the better pick for the lynch.

Nogrod - thinks Menel does look suspicious for the way he talks about the obvious but that it could be due to not playing for a while. Talks about Inzil being spot on. I don't know whether this makes me less suspicious of him. Why say it in the thread if it's making you worried he knows a lot if you're a wolf? With G55 and Pitch now in the lynch running he begins to find them suspicious, but thinks it unlikely they are both wolves.

Aganzir - fairly innocuous post. However some suspicion of me and also keeps Menel out of her 'guilty' list yet specifically mentions being unsure of him. Didn't like the way I talked about the cobbler. Out of nowhere states that Nerwen is a wolf. Ends up with Nog and Pitch as her suspicions and votes Pitch as she is more comfortable with that. Would be if she and Nog are wolf partners.

Missed out Nerwen, Shasta and sally I'm afraid, eyes are closing. Back in a few with thoughts and vote.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With Menel I was kind of late and actually didn't so much suspect him but was asking why he was doing it (basically ending up thinking he was just out of touch), but if you look closer, the thing I was strongly against was the content of his message which was "lynch those who try to play and save the submarines" (to put it in somewhat strong terms) as I also clearly indicated he should not be lynched after coming back after such a long time.

So not Menel but what he suggested.

Well, that's putting it in really "strong terms", I would say rather misquoting. What he said was:

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

In any case, I suggest that if we have had no luck for the next few days and innocents die instead of wolves, we look at those who have been pushing them to their deaths. The most dangerous werewolf is an influential one, after all.

Effectively, if you took certain extreme route, it could lead to what you said, but I don't see it that way. That's really an extreme interpretation of it.

I, of course, do share your concern about quiet Wolves, as you must know. But this is not about ideology now, this is about what you use as tool to suspect someone. Suspect someone just because he has different opinion is a rather cheap way.

Originally Posted by Nog

I don't think I suddenly became active in a Pitchwagon. He voted me against the basic reasoning an intelligent innocent keeps (don't vote someone with bad or fabricated reasons as that someone might be an innocent) and thus I thought he could be a wolf who doesn't think like an innocent has to, especially a wolf doesn't have to take care his reasons are as good as he can make as any vote for a wolf is a known vote and there is no such risk as an innocent's vote carries with it.

But you turned on him. Anyway - this is more like general remark - did it ever occur to you that what you consider logical might not seem logical to everyone? Take this as friendly remark (especially if you are innocent), I think you very often have your own "clear logical set" which very often backfires, because it stems from some premise that does not really hold. (Remember that enthusiasm you yelled with when you reported G55's "Wolf slip" yesterDay. I thought that too at that moment. But it is exactly these "clear" things which often turn not to be so clear. I recall how once in my game you were sure you must lynch Roa because you were sure if she was an Ordo, she would have remembered the content of the Ordo-PM I sent to everyone...)

Originally Posted by Nog

What I said was, that IF there was a seer-dream included (as to why they "knew" to pick Zil - as a possibility they got it right rather than just having a huge boost of luck), then there were two possibilities of which G55 made more sense - and actually fit nicely into the other pattern with Sally (remembering Sally's behaviour on D2 as well) etc.

If you go back and read you can see I have in one post two "arguments", one on how could it be Zil dreamt of Menel, and another on how it could be he dreamt of G55. Surely you don't try to say I was arguing them for real at the same time?

I did not see that "if" there, but you are right, you spoke also of the other possibility. The support of "G55 was a dreamed Wolf" had drawn my attention more strongly yesterDay since your arguing for it was rather, well, illogical. But yes.

Originally Posted by Nog

And anyway, without the hindsight we have now, I think the case with G55 being a dreamt wolf wasn't that far-fetched but actually fit in quite well with both the what happened around - and why they got Zil.

Not sure what you mean by this one, but anyway, my brain is already getting sleepy.

Originally Posted by Nog

If none casts suspicion around how are we going to vote, by rolling a dice? You actually agree, but at this moment this kind of thing suits your ends, doesn't it?

Certainly not, of course. And where does all this sudden aggressivity come from? I state I suspect you and you start jumping back. Anyway, of course we need to suspect someone, what else is the game about, right? But there is difference between having your own suspicions and pressuring, openly or less openly, others to follow you. And I think, when rereading your posts, you cannot deny you have been doing that. Seriously.

Well, now I would actually really like that I could be around more - because now I would like to actually talk to you, Nog for a while still, to make more of your defense. But like I said, I cannot, I won't be around for the rest of the Day at all. Means I must vote, and despite granting some benefit of doubt of some things I said, I still think you are my best bet right now. But of course there is still the rest of the people, and with what was said about the importance of voting, I truly urge everyone to review their suspicions critically. Just let's not get led or misled.

++Nogrod