WW XCVI - The Fell Winter of 2911

[Nogrod]

PS. I still suspect Sally though, because of her totally unmerited and sudden buddy-buddying and tip-toeing from yesterDay.

[Meneltarmacil]

As per my previous Days' statements, we should stand a good chance of finding a wolf if we look at the G55 bandwagon.

Specifically, I don't think a wolf actually started it, and probably did a back-and-forth "G55 or Pitchwife?" thing on Day 1.

After Day 1, much of the focus of conversations was on G55, who warned us that we should really look around at other people. A wolf in this case was probably trying to make sure that didn't happen. So we should be looking for someone who, during Day 2, kept trying to redirect suspicion onto G55.

I'll post an analysis of who that might be later.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Yes, but the Wolves would first have to communicate with the Cobbler somehow.

Not really. The wolves could just have held back their votes until a sufficient number of players had voted for a non-wolf. Or the cobbler could have got himself lynched - in theory, at least, as Glirdy wasn't the most active player. In the end, all it would've taken was for one innocent to vote wrong tomorrow, and the wolves could've jumped on it. It's not like they were offered an automatic victory on a silver plate today, but as they are surely clever and all, I'm sure they would've found a way to steer the lynch in a favourable direction.

Yesterday I was feeling the worst about sally and Nog, but Legate has now pretty much replaced Nog on my suspect list. I'm also sorry about Lommy's death because I had gradually started to trust her, not the least because she followed my vote for sally. I'm also okay with Kath, so that would probably leave Nerwen or Shasta as the last wolf, or Menel because I don't think we can tell for sure if Zil dreamt of him. I read his posts and if I had to make a guess, I'd say he had decided not to leave hints yet - either because the chance of his early death was so slim, or he couldn't for some reason do that.

I'm off to see a friend now, will be back in some hours. I hope to take a look at sally and Legate then - the latter being maybe even more worrisome than the former because of the extent to which I disagree with his notions about people.

I'd also like everyone to remember that if two innocents vote for a different innocent, the wolves are free to do as they please with the lynch.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How about the cobbler saying: "Hi wolves, tell me what to do". That was my immediate plan of impersonating the cobbler after I saw we were reduced to 8 players. But then I saw the rule considering ties - and then I was told the cobbler was no more...

Yes, I see, though still, there would've been still more innocents - like I said, if the cobbler counts as innocent - and the WWs would still at least have to do a Night-kill, which the Ranger could've prevented. But yeah, whatever.

Naturally we should not drop "entirely everything". Heh, I'm not sure how suspicious I should take your wordings to be, though. "Entirely everythnig"? You really thought someone suggested that?

Well that's what seemed really suspicious to me, that you would suggest that. So if you didn't, then all right.

Anyway - okay, so I don't know how much time I will have still. I didn't have that much time after all anyway, but I managed to review the people I wanted.

Upon rereading Agan, I actually think she is not really worrisome in any special way. Yesterday, what triggered my interest in her came from her reaction to sally who voted her, Agan's vote for her seemed retaliatory. That is about the only thing, otherwise she had said a lot of sensible stuff and not really that much suspicious things, if you don't count all the "blood!" stuff, which was rather random. So I really don't feel the need to move her to any suspicious zone or anything.

Shasta was also not very striking on first Day, or in fact, on neither of them, because his posts are not very many. In any case, on first Day, he was maybe a bit "harsh" in reactions to some people, but that's about it. His vote (for G55) he claimed to be because of her original suspicion of Menel, yet then she backed away and voted Pitch instead. That's a sound reasoning. On Day 2, he continued with pursuing G55, the question is if he still found her suspicious or if it now just fitted his intentions that she was under heavy fire within the village. In a similar way, he raised a point about sally and also later slightly about Lommy. He had some good points too (like that the village should not focus only on one person - even though he said it in a context where the issue was something else at that moment, or pointing out Kath's inconsistency), but in the end the total amount of his posts is not a very big number. I would say he might be a under-the-radar type baddie who sort of fits into the flow, but he is not striking in any obvious way.

Last of all, Kath, she posted in the end probably even less than Shasta. Which is a pity, since at first she started relatively nicely and actively. Starting with discussing the Cobbler might have been a Wolf trying to turn the discussion into that (give signals to the Cobbler, make him give signals back; evidently the Cobbler did not react), but it might have been just inquisitive wish to start the conversation. She voted G55 on Day 2, based on that she thought her more likely Zil's Seer-dream than Menel. That may sound to some like a bit feeble excuse, but maybe too feeble for a Wolf. The most interesting point of all, however, is probably the "Pitch is not dead"-thing. I really wonder if a Wolf would make such a weird slip (I mean, the WWs probably should have the best idea about who is dead and who is not, unless she completely missed the game, like, rest of the Day and missing the Night or something as complicated). I cannot really imagine Kath making that up, so even though I dislike "meta-reasoning" as a rule, that would speak for her genuinity in my book.

All in all, I think - since I have to vote early - I might just go with my strongest suspicion at the moment, that being still Nogrod. If I have time, I could reread a bit of some old posts, but seriously not sure if I will have time. I shall be back still to vote in something like an hour or somesuch (or depends how long I stay up).

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

All in all, I think - since I have to vote early - I might just go with my strongest suspicion at the moment, that being still Nogrod.

The reason for that being...?

Btw. where are you people? If no one else is ready to fight, neither will I use my late night for this. Honestly. Come forwards.

[Kath]

I'm going to be able to vote later tonight as it's not a school day tomorrow. Just thought I'd pop in and say.

Having quickly flicked through, I think Agan, sally and Nog could be an interesting wolf trio. Aga suspects sally but lessened her suspicion of Nog toDay in steady phases. Nog's 'fake cobbler/cobbler/no cobbler' business was ... interesting. sally? Don't know yet.

[Meneltarmacil]

OK, as for my planned analysis:

Nogrod looks like he might fit the bill for his Day 2 behavior.

I was looking over the posts from that day to find a point where someone other than G55 agreed with looking at other people, and I found one such instance.

Once Lommy had brought that point up, Nogrod turned up and instantly made multiple posts about G55. Nogrod later was the first person to question G55 on her "frustrated innocent" post after others were starting to waver on her.

I have also known Nogrod to play a very dangerous "influential wolf" in the past, so he's quite capable of pulling it off. Beware, villagers.

Sally also seems a bit suspicious, as she was the first to attack G55 on Day 2, with her focusing on G55's "savage blow" wording. Shasta suspected that this was an attempt at getting the villagers to focus on G55, reinforced by the fact that the first to jump on it was the Cobbler.

Sally also avoided suspecting G55 at one point, only to reverse course rather quickly after Nogrod's attack following Lommy's post.

EDIT: x'd with Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The reason for that being...?

Well, it's mostly the continuous suspicion I have of you. From Day 1, your behavior is this little by little feeding some suspicions (Day 2, BIG feeding, in fact). You were at the start of the initial debate about Menel, which might have been just testing water, and then you suddenly became active in the Pitchwagon. YesterDay, you were certainly the most vocal in the G55 suspicion - even though of course none of us has clean hands in this process, but then again, we of course cannot completely dismiss what was happening yesterDay, that's exactly what the WWs would want. In fact, if that was their intention, they in fact partially succeeded in that by now having, except for some Aganzir, basically all yesterDay's votes under the same "voting umbrella" (which once again btw brings me to the idea that that was their intention with the kill of Lommy). You were, I think (or correct me if I misremember), apart from Kath, I think the one person really pushing the "Inzil dreamed of Wolf G55"-theory, sometimes with a bit ridiculous arguments, even. Basically that.

It is true that it is now clear you weren't saving any packmate on Day 1, but the rest of it still holds. If I look around at all people here, you are the one who seems to me has been casting the most suspicions around and in fact leading the village's course the most, I'd say.

EDIT: x-ed with Kath

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Well, it's mostly the continuous suspicion I have of you. From Day 1, your behavior is this little by little feeding some suspicions (Day 2, BIG feeding, in fact). You were at the start of the initial debate about Menel, which might have been just testing water, and then you suddenly became active in the Pitchwagon.

With Menel I was kind of late and actually didn't so much suspect him but was asking why he was doing it (basically ending up thinking he was just out of touch), but if you look closer, the thing I was strongly against was the content of his message which was "lynch those who try to play and save the submarines" (to put it in somewhat strong terms) as I also clearly indicated he should not be lynched after coming back after such a long time.

So not Menel but what he suggested.

I don't think I suddenly became active in a Pitchwagon. He voted me against the basic reasoning an intelligent innocent keeps (don't vote someone with bad or fabricated reasons as that someone might be an innocent) and thus I thought he could be a wolf who doesn't think like an innocent has to, especially a wolf doesn't have to take care his reasons are as good as he can make as any vote for a wolf is a known vote and there is no such risk as an innocent's vote carries with it.

YesterDay, you were certainly the most vocal in the G55 suspicion - even though of course none of us has clean hands in this process

Like you say... and I was themost vocal yesterDay anyway as I had time then...

You were, I think (or correct me if I misremember), apart from Kath, I think the one person really pushing the "Inzil dreamed of Wolf G55"-theory, sometimes with a bit ridiculous arguments, even. Basically that.

Wrong again. Go and read again.

What I said was, that IF there was a seer-dream included (as to why they "knew" to pick Zil - as a possibility they got it right rather than just having a huge boost of luck), then there were two possibilities of which G55 made more sense - and actually fit nicely into the other pattern with Sally (remembering Sally's behaviour on D2 as well) etc.

If you go back and read you can see I have in one post two "arguments", one on how could it be Zil dreamt of Menel, and another on how it could be he dreamt of G55. Surely you don't try to say I was arguing them for real at the same time?

And anyway, without the hindsight we have now, I think the case with G55 being a dreamt wolf wasn't that far-fetched but actually fit in quite well with both the what happened around - and why they got Zil.

It is true that it is now clear you weren't saving any packmate on Day 1, but the rest of it still holds.

If you are an innocent, just reconsider as nothing you say holds as you can read from above. If you're a wolf as I now suspect, then what the heck... I must just hope everyone sees it.

If I look around at all people here, you are the one who seems to me has been casting the most suspicions around and in fact leading the village's course the most, I'd say.

If none casts suspicion around how are we going to vote, by rolling a dice? You actually agree, but at this moment this kind of thing suits your ends, doesn't it?

I may be bearing some considerable guilt on what has happened. I admit. But I'm not "triumphalistic" about it, as you cared to put it yesterDay. It's bad. But how about someone else started carrying the flag then? I think I have caued enough problems with my ideas about who's guilty thus far. So I'll leave it to you then. Or shall we roll a dice before the DL?