Game thread - Werewolf C - The Father Christmas Murders

[Coppermirror]

Wow, with what's been going on in the last few posts, that changes things a bit. Finally something really interesting has happened!

So I'm going to go ahead and post my incomplete list of suspicions and do the rest in a bit, otherwise it's all going to be 100% out of date by the time I finish writing.

Sally - Had one post including well-reasoned analysis, but has posted very little aside from that. She's said she'll be posting later with a suspicions list, which is good. On the basis of her posts so far I'm not very concerned about her.

Shasta - I'm on the fence about Shasta. I've seen an innocent Shasta and a guilty Shasta before, but in this game I've been unable to draw a conclusion so far about which he's acting most like. I really need to see more posts from him.

Morsul- Not particularly worried about Morsul, although he doesn't seem to have been posting a lot, and that makes him much harder to analyse.

Nerwen- Going by gut feelings about her tone, and having seen a few more posts from her, my concerns have lessened a bit. I'm not getting especially suspicious vibes from her, and her arguments are mostly hanging together. (Then again, if she were guilty my impression is that she'd probably make coherent arguments too.)

But looking through her posts toDay one by one, I see there hasn't been a huge amount of content (proviso: this has not exactly been Super Content Day for anyone). She addresses a number of points about my posts in reasonable depth, and considers McCaber, but there's not a lot of discussion about other people to consider, and that makes her a lot harder to judge. She said she'd be back later with more thoughts, though.

G55 - One of the most active players. Posted a gut suspicions list and voted for Legate. Overall, I was suspicious of her early on Day 1, but thought as the Day progressed that her gut suspicions looked genuine, so I decided not to vote for her.

ToDay, overall, she looked a bit erratic at times, most notably in post #185, and seemed a bit worked up.

And with G55's latest post, that knocks most previous views of her out of the water.

At first glance I'm actually inclined to believe her. But even if she's an ordo as claimed, it doesn't necessarily follow that she's correct and that Legate is a wolf. I'm going to think this over.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And how is G55 supposed to answer that? "Yes, I am so!"? Really, that looks like a very calculating post, and does not make me think better of you, Cop.

At the risk of making your suspicions about self-consciousness from me worse, I'll respond to this.

Of course my post was calculating. I wanted more information from G55. How would she respond to it? And her response was useful for me, both in her tone and in her mention of previous occasions.

In particular, Legate had been saying that G55's conduct was strange in her last few posts before his vote for her. And really, post #185 looked a little odd, as if G55 was saying she was the Cobbler. She ended up not addressing that point in her reply to me.

And now with G55's big statement...G55 playing a pretend-Seer and pretend-Cobbler so far actually does fit pretty well with things so far. Boro thought he saw something either good or bad going on with me, G55 and Legate. Maybe it was fake Seer-hints from G55 implicating Legate that he saw, and me coincidentally backing off from G55 around then?

ToDay when I brought up what Boro had said, G55 answered a little oddly, saying that Boro hadn't been sure whether it was good or bad.

So...I think I'll believe G55 toDay. But that doesn't mean I'll vote for Legate just like that. I'm going to go now to look through Legate's posts to see if I can see the dynamic that G55 claims is there.

Edit: cross-posted with all of this page so far.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by McCaber

After getting off of work and doing some rereading, I have to rescind my accusations of G55. I misremembered what happened yesterDay and didn't do enough study on the holidays.

Legate, on the other hand, only gets worse while looking back. He jumped all over Boro yesterDay and really didn't do that good of a job explaining himself. I didn't want to believe it, but he looked like a wolf confident that he could get rid of a tough enemy early on a weak case.

Second thoughts are well enough, but it looks odd that this comes as G55 gets serious suspicion and votes. Just saying.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I am an Ordo.

On Day One I thought I'd make myself look like the Seer, so as to distract the wolves the following Night. However, all my suspicions have been genuine and very true. I have indeed suspected Legate based on feel. And I do believe I was the target last Night for that very reason.

ToDay, based on that belief (and, objectively speaking, I was the most Seerish looking person around), I decided to play Cobbler and try to get a reaction from Legate.

Now, I have considered the possibility that, assuming the wolves targeted me, they have done so to lead everyone down a false trail. However, at the same time, the wolves would not want to waste a kill on a person who is likely to be protected, so I think they would have come up with a better option if they weren't desperate. Get what I'm sayiing?

From the time you first brought up looking for information on the Night-kill, my issue has been that you had no way to know who was the intended target unless you were a wolf or the Ranger. I couldn't see the Ranger saying things like that.

But now..would a wolf try this? The Cobbler might, but why?

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Don't trust:
Legate
Dun

Shifty:
Cop
McCaber

Unconcerned at present:
Lommie
Gal
Morsul
Nerwen

Will not vote toDay:
Shasta
Steve


The top two categories are open for business.

Reasons for these?

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

From the time you first brought up looking for information on the Night-kill, my issue has been that you had no way to know who was the intended target unless you were a wolf or the Ranger. I couldn't see the Ranger saying things like that.

Well, or a person who looks at things objectively and ask themselves if it's a coincidence that the Ranger and the wolves targeted the same person.

Of course it could be - in which case all my theories collapse and you can lynch me all you want toMorrow. But how likely?

Once again, standing in the wolves' shoes, if you have a choice between equally appealing dinner, you would avoid the one that is the most likely to be protected by the Ranger. Unless you're pretty desperate to kill that person, so that you would go for them even at great risk of wasting a kill and giving the Ranger an innocent.

I agree, it could be a coincidence. But the wolves are smarter than that. And, realistically, what's the likelihood?

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

Well, or a person who looks at things objectively and ask themselves if it's a coincidence that the Ranger and the wolves targeted the same person.

Of course it could be - in which case all my theories collapse and you can lynch me all you want toMorrow. But how likely?

Once again, standing in the wolves' shoes, if you have a choice between equally appealing dinner, you would avoid the one that is the most likely to be protected by the Ranger. Unless you're pretty desperate to kill that person, so that you would go for them even at great risk of wasting a kill and giving the Ranger an innocent.

I agree, it could be a coincidence. But the wolves are smarter than that. And, realistically, what's the likelihood?

Not great– but a bit higher than usual in this particular village, simply because of the low numbers. You do have to factor that in.

EDIT:X'd since G55.

[Inziladun]

I may regret that vote, but that's an awfully convoluted defense from an evil G55. If you're a wolf, hats off.

[McCaber]

Now I look like a bandwagoner, but he genuinely looks the most suspicious.

++Legate

If we're wrong, at least we'll have some solid leads on where to go toMorrow.



(Also, highlight is really fun to type. I don't know why I never noticed that before.)

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Second thoughts are well enough, but it looks odd that this comes as G55 gets serious suspicion and votes. Just saying.

On behalf of Cabbie, I would say that the timing wasn't really up to him, in the same way that it wasn't up to Morsul when he had to vote early. It's one thing if you post continuously during the Day and pick a convenient moment to switch sides, and if you just didn't have computer access most of the Day and come back to a different situation.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

On behalf of Cabbie, I would say that the timing wasn't really up to him, in the same way that it wasn't up to Morsul when he had to vote early. It's one thing if you post continuously during the Day and pick a convenient moment to switch sides, and if you just didn't have computer access most of the Day and come back to a different situation.

I'd simply been leaning toward an evil you, and all this needs digesting.

[Inziladun]

Ok. Know what? I can't see a wolf doing this. A Cobbler might, but I don't see a motive for it. A Cobbler would be happy to take one for the wolves. What the heck.

++Legate

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Second thoughts are well enough, but it looks odd that this comes as G55 gets serious suspicion and votes. Just saying.

I thought that too, but one of the votes came from an already-suspicious-looking Legate probably trying to move some of the heat off of himself.

EDIT: x'd with Inzil

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

ToDay when I brought up what Boro had said, G55 answered a little oddly, saying that Boro hadn't been sure whether it was good or bad.

Which he indeed wasn't:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

For instance, think I'm blind to the fact Legate, Copper, and G55 are up to something...but whether that be good or bad I can't quite determine yet. But given enough time, usually you can tell soon enough.

Though you are probably right about what he was referring to... unless he has somehow swapped accounts with Shasta.

Edit: xed with Zil

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Cop

At the risk of making your suspicions about self-consciousness from me worse, I'll respond to this.

Of course my post was calculating. I wanted more information from G55. How would she respond to it? And her response was useful for me, both in her tone and in her mention of previous occasions.

It actually is, yes– but you see that really surprised me, because it's hard to defend oneself against something as vague as "feels wrong" or "not posting like her usual self". I may have mistaken your intention there, but I thought you might be setting her up to make an ineffectual defence that would then give you an excuse to lynch her.

EDIT: X'd since Coppermirror at #203.