WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I don't like the way Pom and Cab went for Cop at all. Yes, I suspected Cop myself, but this just looks overeager and wrong. I feel like my suspicion made matters too easy for at least one of them. Pom is wishy-washy and self-contradictory: I almost think a wizard might be more careful. As for Cab, I don't know. Would a Cab or Pom wizard throw a fellow under the bus at this early stage? Thing is, I don't like Cab's reasons. I suspected Cop for the classic blunder of "looking helpful", he seems to suspect him for voting early. If you have to vote early, you have to vote early, and the reasons will be thin.

I see where you're coming from. I suspect Cop for two reasons - for the helpfulness thing you pointed out and for her Boro vote. Not because she voted early (I do know a bit about that myself) but because it struck me as an easy vote; a throwaway, if you like. Then again, the general suspicion against Cop almost makes me feel better about her, not worse; like you said, Pom and Cab both looked a tad opportunistic. Cab perhaps more so since Pom had to leave and I can see the Cop thing being the strongest suspicion she had. Cab, however, seems to be still around, which makes me wonder why he voted already then.

EDIT: x-ed with Rick, Cab, and Bane

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Cab

Because when CM voted, there were like 6 others who had mostly vague IC postings (including you, I might add), but immediately picked out Boro as the only suspicious and votable one from that group. Hasty and ill-thought.

True; but what bothers me most is that she didn't even vote for him because of banter or not posting substance, she voted him on "gut-feeling" when there was hardly anything to base that feeling on. I just don't see that as a genuine vote.

Still, the more she is suspected, the more reluctant I am to suspect her too. I can totally see her as the easy Day 1 lynch we talk ourselves into and curse afterwards.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Cab, however, seems to be still around, which makes me wonder why he voted already then.

I had suspicions and didn't feel like waiting until the last 10 minutes of the Night to get them hashed out. I don't like last-minute surprises.

EDIT: X'd with LG

[Bane Mantra]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Cab perhaps more so since Pom had to leave and I can see the Cop thing being the strongest suspicion she had.

But then Pom warns us to be suspicious of people voting for Cop, which includes Pom. Don't you find that to be a bit incongruous?

Edit: x'd with Cab

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Cab

I had suspicions and didn't feel like waiting until the last 10 minutes of the Night to get them hashed out. I don't like last-minute surprises.

Fair enough - although unless I'm mistaken, it's still over an hour until deadline. For myself, I'm seldom so sure on Day 1 that I'd feel ready to make a decision with that long still to go (provided that I was around until DL, anyway), especially since quite a lot tends to happen during the last two hours.

Originally Posted by Bane

But then Pom warns us to be suspicious of people voting for Cop, which includes Pom. Don't you find that to be a bit incongruous?

I do, as I briefly pointed out in my long post; seriously though, I very much doubt she did that without knowing exactly how incongruous it would sound. It is probably to be disregarded if she was joking; it is more than a bit hypocritical if she was serious, but I'm not sure what that points to, if anything.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I very much doubt she [Pom] did that without knowing exactly how incongruous it would sound. It is probably to be disregarded if she was joking; it is more than a bit hypocritical if she was serious, but I'm not sure what that points to, if anything.

It feels pretty natural to me that - if she is just a troll that is - after voting and seeing there was another vote to Copper as well, just as the talk around him had started, she felt people should pay attention to it; even if she is herself included. I mean I could have said that if I were in her position.

Then again - and the trouble being - I could have said that also were I a wolf and in her position, just to make myself look considerate. A safe vote would be something a wolf would long for. Maybe a PomWizard thought her vote for Copper was safely reasoned when she sent it, but then seeing Cab's vote made her uneasy and she felt she had to downplay the idea she was bandwagoning, at least in any sneaky fashion?

Okay. Trying to look around for any better ideas...

EDIT: X'd from Lottie onwards aka. this page...

[A Little Green]

Anyway, I've got to go now. Voting for

++ McCaber

because of three things. The major one is his Cop-vote; not that he suspected Cop since I do that too, to a certain extent, but his suspicion of her just seems easy and eager, in a way. I agree with his points, but I'm made uneasy by his apparent lack of doubt in their validity, if that makes sense. The two other things: first, a gut feeling (which I am aware won't be helpful to anyone else), and second, his early-Day distortions of what other people had said. (Which might be just interpretations that are different than mine, though.) By themselves these last two things would not qualify for a reason to lynch anyone; it's more that they add to the feeling I got from the Cop-thing.

Sidenote: if Cab is a Wizer, I'd like a close look on Bane and the way he (or she? Which is it?) tried to point me to suspecting Pom over Cab when I said he was the more suspicious of the two.

Anyway, that's it from me toDay. Good Night!
(Or the other way round, whichever way you prefer.)


EDIT: x-ed with everything on this page and probably some more too! Why are you guys posting so fast?

[Inziladun]

DL falls in the midst of the workday, which I should have known would be a pitfall.

I don't like Gil's reasoning, but I've never played with him before, so I'm willing to let him pass for to(Day?Night?).

I'm not particularly keen on going for Nerwen at the moment, so I''ll make it

++Pom

for the vote on Cop, and the odd remark about watching everyone else.

x/d with last three

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

DL falls in the midst of the workday, which I should have known would be a pitfall.

I don't like Gil's reasoning, but I've never played with him before, so I'm willing to let him pass for to(Day?Night?).

I'm not particularly keen on going for Nerwen at the moment, so I''ll make it

++Pom

for the vote on Cop, and the odd remark about watching everyone else.

x/d with last three

I have to note that this was shortly (but more than three posts) after I voted for McCaber.

Day 2, Cab says:

Originally Posted by Cab

Well, we know Pom was right about there being at least one who voted for CM.

Har-de-har-har...

And Inzil replies

Originally Posted by Inzil

Yes indeed.

No, that's not really evidence against him, it just amuses me.

An evil McCaber does make Nog, look better, though. They both went after each other in ways that could have easily resulted in a lynch - although nothing that couldn't be wolf-on-wolf after all. Nog's vote for McCaber is interesting in this light. For a wolf, obviously, it would be pointless; well, for an innocent it's pointless too. His explanation was especially weird. No, no pass for Nog.

Kath is really under the radar and no one seems to be looking at her.

McCaber says of the Volo kill:

Originally Posted by McCaber

If the wizards thought he was a seer, it was probably because of his first fluffy post and something they saw in his lists. Maybe Morsul is in fact innocent and the wizards thought that only a seer would think that. Other than that, he looked really suspicious and probably would have gotten himself lynched a few days down the road. A really weird choice of wolf kill.

Could be that's the plain truth. Good way to make sense and be consistent.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I would think it's likely Nog is on the right track, and Volo should have said something to make them think he might be on to one of them. It really doesn't make a lot a sense otherwise. As many have noted, he wasn't exactly considered innocent, and probably would have been one of the prime lynch candidates for toNight.

And then in response to McCaber

Originally Posted by Inzil

So to the Wizards anyone who thinks Morsul is innocent must be a Seer? I was thinking someone else had said they thought Morsul was all right, but I don't recall now.

Yeah: Inzil. Although Copper and I were also ambivalent about Morsul, Inzil actually called the Morsul wagon "fabricated".

So is this "I don't recall" sarcasm? Does Inzil expect that everyone else remembers his one line from two (RL) days before? He certainly remembers who he suspected or not! At this poitn he just seems to be interested in furthering the "Volo looked seerish" theory without drawing attention to himself.

Inzil claims I look innocent after self-voting, along the lines that a wolf wouldn't at that point. Nah, this doesn't tell me anything. He could actually have changed his opinion of me or he could just be confident that I'll be lynched and stepping away from the bandwagon to avoid drawing attention the next day. After this Cab goes for Morsul. Inzil makes a vote for Gil that is essentially a throwaway, asking someone to join so it's not for nothing.

The day Gil was lynched Copper makes some statements about how the wolves won't defend him and he might not show up, and Inzil questions her about it. Something about one of them - something about the exchange, actually.

Huh, I just realized I put Nerwen in two different categories yesterday. I don't know what's going on with me. '

Anyway, today:

Originally Posted by Inzil

n other words, the same sort of "tunnel vision" you accused others of having toward Morsul? And by all means, explain your suspicion.

What? I didn't say any such thing. I said it was choreographed. By wizards. And we know now that it was, although we don't know to what extent.

And I said I didn't want to have "tunnel vision" anyway. Meaning, I didn't want to see evil because I expected to see it. But at this point, nonetheless, I'm pretty sure you're evil. I gave reasons both yesterday and today - not sure how you could have missed that! However, I'm confident the other trolls around here will be able to see where I'm coming from.

Originally Posted by Inzil

I encourage everyone to at least rely on your own instincts and conclusions this Night. Yes, there is another Night's leeway, thanks to Lottie, but don't let that move you into hastiness. Look back over things and make up your own mind.

I agree completely.

++Inzil

[Inziladun]

Since Rikae is exhibiting all the single-mindedness for which she castigated Morsul voters, I'll just take a page from her book.

++Inzil

[satansaloser2005]

Re: Morsul. Ugh. Again? Seriously, man, stop acting guilty when you're not.

Re: Lottie. No surprise there. I had the sneaking suspicion she was our hunter (she's acted similarly once before), and had hoped she could do....well, what she did. I'm sad to see her go though. Good job, dear.

I'll be that guy and note that the wizards took out the main person who was against my lynch yesterDay (at least from what remember of what I've read). There may be something there, or it may be coincidental.

Re: McCaber. So the McCobbler was in fact a McWizard, was he? Well, that changes some things. As is normally the case with McCaber, I don't pick up much from him, but I'll go back and look through his posts to see if I catch anything interesting.

Oh, and can we not almost lynch me next time I'm unexpectedly gone for the Day? That'd be great, thanks. >.<

I have a few thoughts in another tab that I'll be sharing soon, but I honestly believe it'll be an early night for me. I really haven't been sleeping well lately, and I actually need to be decently conscious to do my job tomorrow. Back soon.

[Loslote]

I can definitely see where the Cabbie suspicion is coming from...but I don't think I remember a McWolf acting like that. His behavior so far seems more like an ordo than a wolf. A wolf would care a bit more how he comes off, and I don't see this game's Cabbie doing that.

EDIT: xed with Volo and Zil

[Ozban]

++McCaber

I dislike his vote, rather too convenient and opportunistic. And his input up to that strikes me like attempt to make himself seen, yet adding nothing of value. Still we are at Day1 and I never played with him.
As to my previous doubts of Gil. I'd rather watch him somewhat longer. But still is high on my list 'to inspect'.

Xed with everyone since Nog #124.

[Loslote]

I don't suspect Cabbie. I think all three waves of suspicion (against Gil, Copper, and Cabbie) are too easy and, if not fueled by Wizardly trickery, at the very least unwise. I'm going to go ahead and vote

++Pom

because I do suspect her (...him?), and I think this is the most reasonable alternative to the bandwagons I don't agree with.

[Boromir88]

Well, now there is a counter-Cop wagon, to bus McCaber to the front. At least the voting should be revealing for the next Night. It's hard to determine any alignments right now with no hard evidence (in the form of at least one proven innocent or a proven wizard)...but there will be lots of voting to look at.

[Loslote]

Sorry I took so long - I got lost in the caves. Did you know some of them have more than one door? What kind of crazy design is that!

*ahem* Moving on.

I feel quite good so far about Greenie and Rikae - they seem to be reacting genuinely, from what I can tell. Bane is quite well-spoken for a newbie - his/her #113 made sense to me, in a fresh, new kind of way. Pom feels like she's trying to be reasonable and agreeable while actually being nothing of the sort, which makes me raise my eyebrows a bit. I'd have to say she's my top suspect right now.

EDIT: xed since Bane's 117

[Rikae]

++McCaber

[Coppermirror]

Blimey, wizzers are tasty as can be. I could eat 'em all week, I could. An' congrats to our Insomniac troll; they're so clever a troll I can 'ardly believe they're one of us.

*ahem*

Very nice narration there, mods! I like the way you used bits of dialogue from the Day. A bit sad there probably won't be such good lines toDay, with the banter mostly over.

There's a lot to analyse in the posts from yesterDay. Though I thought the odds were good that someone would go for me after my last post yesterDay, I wasn't expecting quite this much, so I'll respond to one or two points now. I'm really tired, so I'll have to come back later to do any proper analysis of the posts and votes from yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Thoughts Part 1...

Coppermirror, "Cop"- - Voted early for Boro who had only to two straight up banter posts. Certainly to watch.

The deadline in this game is one where almost every time I'm going to have to vote very early. (Not toDay, incidentally. I can be around for the deadline this time.) I was concerned that I might get targeted for voting early, so well before the game's start I made it very clear in the admin post that that was the situation. So, when I'm looking through the posts from toDay and yesterDay when I get back later, I'll be curious to see if anyone is making a big thing of my vote being an early one.

On Day 1, when all there has been so far is a lot of banter that there doesn't seem to be anything much in for serious analysis, and you have to vote immediately, what are you going to do? The only thing to do, short of abstaining from voting or deciding via random number generator (both of which are things I would hate to do) is to look at each person's posts and judge by how suspicious you feel about each of them. Boro's posts were the ones I felt most suspicious of, so Boro got my vote. I didn't have a lot of choice in voting in that way yesterDay, but I did hope that it would at least stir up some discussion of substance. It leading to a wizzard slipping up and getting caught that very day was rather better than I expected, though!

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

That is my best theory on why Pom had that turn of face, like a plan suddenly backfiring and wanting to draw attention to Cab instead of Cop, as we see how Cab almost got lynched instead.

Gil, I don't think your theory stands up very well at all. (In fact, it might even be suspicious itself...) If you look through the posts before Pom's vote, a number of other people had already voiced serious suspicions of me. Accordingly, Pom's vote for me could not have been an empty vote for somebody who was not under any real suspicion.

But, I am quite curious about why Pom made that turn of opinion yesterDay too. I'll look at it a bit more later, but I can see a number of possibilities off the top of my head.

Pom could have:
- seen an excellent opportunity to go after McCaber that Day. If he's innocent, then after voting for me, proposing an extra innocent as a target is something in the best interests of the wizzards. They want as many innocents under suspicion as possible.
- or, it could have been that but that she was setting up McCaber for a target toDay rather than yesterDay.
- or McCaber is a wizzard, and Pom felt that the vote bandwagon was making them both look fishy, and she was trying to disassociate herself.
- Pom knew that I'm not a wizzard, so she knew that if I'd got lynched, people would look carefully at those who voted for me.
- ...and because she cross-posted with McCaber, she became the second person to vote for me rather than the first, and could have feared that that would make her look suspicious later on. By trying to back off from me, she could have been trying to prevent danger to herself.

I've considered the possibility that she might have made a genuine attempt to stop people voting from me, but that only makes sense if she thinks I'm the cobbler, and I don't think I said anything which could possibly make her think I was, so I'm discounting that.

I'll have to look at all the possibilities and maybe some more in more depth later when I'm less tired, because there could be some valuable info there on whether or not McCaber is innocent. See you all later.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

The deadline in this game is one where almost every time I'm going to have to vote very early. (Not toDay, incidentally. I can be around for the deadline this time.) I was concerned that I might get targeted for voting early, so well before the game's start I made it very clear in the admin post that that was the situation. So, when I'm looking through the posts from toDay and yesterDay when I get back later, I'll be curious to see if anyone is making a big thing of my vote being an early one.
.

Yeah the deadline in this game is pretty rough for me too usually falling in my work day. I don't find an issue with your voting early, look at my own early vote. Your vote sticks out for me because you seemed to picked Boro out of a litany of banter posts to vote for.

[Nerwen]

So. Wizgranate's famous post at #103 was striking enough to get her Fenrissed out of the blue- I don't anyone was even considering her before that.

It looks like panic, but why? The possibilities I can come up with are (in no particular order):

1. [1]Cop is innocent and Pom suddenly freaked at realising she might have started an incriminating bandwaggon on an innocent.
   
   [2]Cop is guilty and Pom freaked at realising she might have started a bandwaggon on a packmate.
   
   [3]McCaber is guilty and Pom freaked at the fact that both of them had jumped on the same person.
   
   [4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)
   
   [5]Just after voting, it occurred to Pom she might be helping to lynch the cobbler.

Any of these reasons is still quite weak on its own though- note that 1,2 and 5 carry the obvious objection, "why didn't she think of that before?". Perhaps a combination?
EDIT: formatting.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab

(Underlining mine) Sorry, what? Since when do we know Cab is innocent? The only reason I can think of for you to assume Cab is innocent is if you *know* he is - because he isn't one of your packmates.

Quick disclaimer: I hit the quote button on the selection above before I saw the quote below.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion.

Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom.

She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate.

I know I said I didn't think Pom had a wizard in the vote mix Lottie's vote position seems the most likely for wizardom.

...well, that escalated quickly. So...you're suspecting me for voting second. For a wizard. When I knew at the time there were at least three others (Sally, Nog, and Bane) who also suspected said wizard. Were I a wizard, that would be a stupidly risky move for me to pull on a Day 1. Moreover, assuming I did not want my packmate to actually get lynched, what benefit would I have for voting for my packmate as opposed to one of the other *three* possible bandwagons?

All in all, I don't want to knee-jerk all over this thread, but

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion.

Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom.

She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate.

I know I said I didn't think Pom had a wizard in the vote mix Lottie's vote position seems the most likely for wizardom.

Meh, could be. You'd think she could have avoided voting for a mate entirely though, if she'd wanted. Then again, you could be right and it was a gamble gone awry.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

IF Lottie is a wizard that MAY clear Nog as Lottie has started steering into him so far toNight

Yes. along the lines of her vote, she surely would have come up with others to suspect if she and Nog were mates.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

So. Wizgranate's famous post at #103 was striking enough to get her Fenrissed out of the blue- I don't anyone was even considering her before that.

It looks like panic, but why? The possibilities I can come up with are (in no particular order):

1. [1]Cop is innocent and Pom suddenly freaked at realising she might have started an incriminating bandwaggon on an innocent.
   
   [2]Cop is guilty and Pom freaked at realising she might have started a bandwaggon on a packmate.
   
   [3]McCaber is guilty and Pom freaked at the fact that both of them had jumped on the same person.
   
   [4]McCaber is innocent and Pom saw a chance to have it both ways, setting up a second line of suspicion against the other Cop voters. (Without really thinking it through.)
   
   [5]Just after voting, it occurred to Pom she might be helping to lynch the cobbler.

Any of these reasons is still quite weak on its own though- note that 1,2 and 5 carry the obvious objection, "why didn't she think of that before?". Perhaps a combination?

Any of those could be the case. Definitely a strange situation. I think #1 is unlikely, as that shouldn't have been a major issue for a baddie.

x/d with Lottie

[McCaber]

A Look Back at Pomegranate; or, The Death of a Wizard. Warning: all contents are my subjective reading and interpretation of the text in question.

Post 4: fluff IC. Tells us nothing about motives.
Post 15: rules recap to try and be helpful. Questioning Morsul about his actions in the previous 10 posts and an exhortation to conversation. Seems to be mostly laying groundwork for a defence against a possible Morsul attack later.
Post 92: doesn't suspect Nerwen or Gil after their spat. Comes down much harder on CM. Probably trying to butter up the first two parties and make her seem more reasonable to them by trying to see their posts in the absolute best light.
Post 95: misreads Nog accidentally.
Post 99: likes Rikae's behavior, even though I am about to say the same things and get raged at with the fire of a thousand suns. Contradictory posting is suspicious posting. Does go after Brin a bit, but this line of though is quickly dropped.
Post 100: corrects the mistake she made in post 95.
Post 102: votes for CM for much the same reasons as I did.
Post 103: notices my vote, panics. Why the panic? Was she trying to protect CM for some reason and in that post dissuaded any more wizards from voting that direction?

And that was the last we heard of her.

EDIT: X'd x 4.

[Nerwen]

And, of course, the other big question is: did Pom's comrades bus her or not?

I can't see why she would have appeared obviously doomed to them at any point yesterDay- if there was wolf-on-wolf voting there, it's more likely to have come at a time when it still seemed relatively safe, i.e. from Zil or Lottie. Not that you can count on this- my king, for example, has been known to bus his packmates quite gratuitously, precisely because it "clears" him. Anyway, it seems probable to me that there was at least some attempt to save Pom.
EDIT:x'd since my last post. Edit 2:fixed non sequitur.