WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Coppermirror]

If Volo was killed for Seerishness, Boro and Gil are top wizard candidates. But Volo might also have picked out innocents and been killed for that.

I remain concerned about Nog and Boro's Day 1 vote placement, and Gil's logic yesterDay. For the reasons in post #229 and his vote toDay, I'm worried about Morsul.

So I could vote for any of those four, since I actually suspect them. I do not want to permit Rikae to be lynched by default, since I don't suspect her any more. (I really don't think a wizard-her would be bringing up a funeral as ammo for why she's stressed. That would be low, and I have no reason to suppose she would stoop that low.)

Edit: crossed since #383

[Brinniel]

Of those who have already received votes, I'd be most likely to vote Boromir. He's not my top suspect, but his vote for Greenie does look bad. Why would he be so concerned with her cryptic reasoning for suspecting of him were he innocent? Especially when I don't think he was highly suspected by anyone else at that point (correct me if I'm wrong).

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Of those who have already received votes, I'd be most likely to vote Boromir. He's not my top suspect, but his vote for Greenie does look bad. Why would he be so concerned with her cryptic reasoning for suspecting of him were he innocent? Especially when I don't think he was highly suspected by anyone else at that point (correct me if I'm wrong).

This is a good point, but Gil, someone I'm wary of due to his voting record, has voted Boro.

I can't decide if Nerwen is a Wizard or a frustrated innocent, so I don't think I'll go that route.

Nog didn't seem to me to be particularly suspicious in the way he went about looking at Volo. I haven't been all that worried about him thus far, which in itself should be a concern.

[Inziladun]

I'm not impressed with Morsul's vote. I thought his initial explanation that he thought Rikae might be the purseholder at least plausible, if an unsound basis for a vote. But then he appeared to get nervous and backtrack.

So for me I think it's down to Morsul, Gil, or Boro.

The latter hadn't done anything to trip the radar until he seemed to get unnerved by Greenie. Why would an innocent not give her some room?

x/d with Sally and Nog

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

The latter hadn't done anything to trip the radar until he seemed to get unnerved by Greenie. Why would an innocent not give her some room?

What I am wondering is what a wizard would gain from her being voted for now. There was no indication that other people were likely to vote for her toDay, but I can only assume his vote was a genuine attempt, whether he's innocent or guilty.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Kath

Question about the Rikae debacle: has she actually quit? 'Cause if she has we're down another player assuming Bane is modkilled toDay. And if she has quit when will her death occur. ToNight? ToMorrow's end of Day?

Rikae, as far as I am aware, did nothing that would equal quitting.

Bane will be modfired at the end of toDay (unless he shows in 10 minutes and votes).

[Coppermirror]

I'm currently considering Morsul or Boro as things are getting late. But with the latter, I hate the idea of voting for Boro after someone I suspect as much as Gil has encouraged voted for him.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Copper

I'm currently considering Morsul or Boro as things are getting late. But with the latter, I hate the idea of voting for Boro after someone I suspect as much as Gil has encouraged voted for him.

Yeah Gil worries me, but I'm also worried about spreading out the votes too much.

[A Little Green]

Anyone else for Boro? I will vote Morsul over Rikae if it comes to that but would prefer Boro.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

I'm currently considering Morsul or Boro as things are getting late. But with the latter, I hate the idea of voting for Boro after someone I suspect as much as Gil has encouraged voted for him.

I think I concur.

++Gil

His voting is highly suspect, and he could tell us much about others, maybe.

Someone join me so this vote is not for nothing.

x/d with all since # 407

[Nogrod]

Torn between voting for Rikae to have her way or to try Boro (who fits both the idea the Wizards thought Volo the seer and looks suspicious toDay - and might be lynched...)

EDIT: X'd with a lot...

[Coppermirror]

++Morsul

[Coppermirror]

Well, this is bad...

Better go and look for hints from Brin, then.

[Coppermirror]

^ I must have clicked on one of the icon things on the reply page by accident, because there's a tree icon on my post there. Don't bother trying to read anything into it, since I didn't mean to put it there.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

^ I must have clicked on one of the icon things on the reply page by accident, because there's a tree icon on my post there. Don't bother trying to read anything into it, since I didn't mean to put it there.

You're secretly an ally of Gondor! But the wizards already killed the cobbler, so I guess that means you're super secretly a wizard!

But seriously, losing a seer this early sucks. Now I have do back and perform an analysis of what Brinn might have thought and what the wizards saw in her. Let's hope she saw something useful, and not that say Boro was innocent and no one believed her. Anyway, I'll be back with hopefully a better picture of her than the normal reads I got over the rest of the game.

[Coppermirror]

Brinniel, the only clever troll among us...

Day 1

#63 - votes Nerwen.
- feels good about Rikae
- doesn't like my vote
- lets Morsul's Kath suspicion go for now
- doesn't like Sally's banter, "but then again it is Sally".
- reasoning for Nerwen vote is "While I don't feel terribly confident in my vote, she has displayed the most suspicious behavior to me so far."

Based on that, she might have dreamed of Rikae on Night 1. Might have dreamed of Nerwen, but she said she wasn't terribly confident in her vote, so probably didn't.

Day 2

#178 - looks at Nerwen's scenarios for Pom's Day 1 motivation, and thinks the innocent-McCaber option is most likely. Guilty McCaber option is "is possible, but I don't find it very likely".

Hard to say from this whether she dreamed of McCaber. This is also phrased in uncertain terms. Perhaps there is something more concrete later.

#179 - doesn't think wolf-on-wolf votes are likely. Thinks if so would have been one of the earlier voters, and that Sally and Shasta would have had "to be very bold to throw a packmate under the bus like that so early in the game".

#187 - gives her impressions!

Nerwen - Likes her contribution that Day so far. (Indication that she dreamed of her?)
Morsul - thinks his actions are his playing style and that that tells us nothing of his role. (Definitely won't have dreamed of him.)
Sally - her vote for Pom makes her think she's innocent. (Might have dreamed of her, but I doubt it.)
McCaber - leaning towards him being more innocent than not, because of Pom's comment. She didn't find his vote very suspicious. (So, might have dreamed of him, but there's nothing clear.)
Gil - says that like Morsul, his playing style looks suspicious regardless of role.
Inzil - "his behavior doesn't strike me as suspicious". (Probably didn't dream of him.)
Nogrod - "I'm not sure about Nogrod, but he's definitely one to watch." (Might have been planning to dream of him? Or might have already?)
Rikae - she has all sorts of positive things to say about Rikae. I think she probably dreamed of her on Night 1.
Volo - "A bit suspicious".
Boromir - So far, sees no reason to suspect him. (But she obviously didn't dream of him.)
Copper - thinks I'm looking more likely to be innocent based on Pom's vote. (But I doubt she'd have bothered to dream of me.)
Oz - is suspicious of him. But we know she didn't dream of him.
Lottie - "I don't see anything suspicious in her posts and her vote makes her look even less suspicious. I'm leaning towards probably innocent.". (Might have dreamed of her?)
Bane: - didn't say much.
Greenie: - "So far, I'm thinking she looks more on the innocent side." based on her vote and interactions. (Dreamed of her? I'd guess not, but she might have.)
Kath: - didn't say much.
Shasta - his vote "makes it seem unlikely that he isn't innocent". (Could be a dream? But I doubt it.)

None of that except the Rikae thing stands out, and even that could plausibly be based on non-clever-trolliness. If she stays positive about Rikae, she probably did dream her on Night 1.

#199 - thinks that the Cobbler-Nog theory is good. So she probably didn't dream of him?

I'll just quote her next list.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Looking Innocentish
Sally
Rikae
Copper
Greenie
Shasta

Feeling Okay About
McCaber
Inzil
Loslote

Not Sure
Nerwen
Morsul
Gil
Boromir
Kath

Will Keep an Eye On
Nogrod
Bane

Looking Suspicious
Volo
Oz

Her looking suspicious list there...might indicate that she dreamed of Volo, but I'd guess not. This is hard. I can see why the wolves didn't peg her as the clever troll earlier. So, maybe the key is somewhere in Day 3.

#178 - comments on Oz and Morsul. Might be defending Morsul?

#212 - something Nog says makes her think better of him as it sounds like "typical Nog". Of Nerwen, says that "I certainly don't trust Nerwen, though at this point I no longer find her all that suspicious. Which is why I placed her in my "Not Sure" category.".

That's hard to interpret. Could indicate that she dreamed of her, but might not.

#123 - votes Volo.

And that's the end of Day 2 for Brin. I'll probably come back in a while to look at Day 3.

Conclusions so far: I think she dreamed of Rikae Night 1, but I'm really not sure about who it might be on Night 2.

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Conclusions so far: I think she dreamed of Rikae Night 1, but I'm really not sure about who it might be on Night 2.

I'm pretty sure Rikae got dreamed of at some point. Otherwise, I'm not sure she would have defended her so passionately yesterday otherwise.

[Coppermirror]

Brin Day 3.

#290 - Surprised about Volo being killed. Thought he looked suspicious, but that his posts didn't stand out as Seerish.

#295 - Considers possibility of one of Sally and Shasta being a wizard, talks about how the Volo kill might be misdirection.

#296 - "While I'm still not sure about Morsul, he hasn't struck me as particularly suspicious."

So, if she dreamed of him, he was probably innocent. But it's hard to tell if she did dream of him.

#304 - defends Morsul, thinks he's not necessarily displaying wizard behaviour.

#305 - thinks Rikae's behaviour is frustrated-innocent-Rikae behaviour. Is suspicious of Nerwen for jumping on that. (So she probably didn't dream of Nerwen?)

#324 - more defence of Rikae. It's clear she must have dreamed of her.

#353 -

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm not sure what to think of Nerwen. I really don't like how she's acting toward Rikae, yet I've seen many times two players going at it both end up innocent. And the wizards will just eat that up because if one gets lynched and is revealed innocent, the other can be set up as a prime lynch candidate the following Day.

We probably need to be examine Nerwen carefully. My impression is that Brin probably hadn't dreamed of her before, and that chances are she would have dreamed of her this Night if she hadn't been killed.

What do you think, is it possible she'd already dreamed of Nerwen?

#362 - Wonders if Shasta might get a free pass. I'd guess from this that she hadn't dreamed of him.

#369 - A post full of suspicions of Gil, although phrased quite mildly.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I recall seeing this behavior from both an evil and innocent Gil. And I do wonder if perhaps a Gil-wolf may be relying on this behavior to appear as a frustrated ordinary innocent.

That and his inconsistency in suspicion has me worried about him. I did see that he posted that he might not participate much toDay. I do hope he shows up before deadline though, because I'd like to hear from him.

#371 - Is also worried about Nogrod. I agree with her conclusions.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Not worried about
Rikae: Just looks like a frustrated ordo.
Copper: As already stated, I'm still thinking that Pom's vote was probably not wolf-on-wolf.
Greenie: I'm feeling good about her posts toDay. They seem well thought-out and logical enough.
Shasta: Hope he shows up toMorrow.
Inzil: His Day 1 vote makes him look more innocent and he hasn't said anything to change my opinion of that.
Loslote: Already was leaning innocent because of her Day 1 vote, plus I like what she's said toDay and agree with a lot of it.
Bane: Will probably be modfired.
Sally: I suppose there's always the possibility she's a very sneaky wizard who threw her mate under the bus, but I see no reason to suspect her.
Boromir: Still not sure about him, but I like what he's said toDay.
Nerwen: Like Rikae, looks more like a frustrated innocent.

Not sure what to think
Morsul: His behavior never fails to confuse me. I'm slightly leaning toward innocent, but still feeling uncertain.
McCaber: I don't know. Pom trying to place focus on him makes him look better, but I'm still at a question mark.
Kath: I didn't like her vote yesterDay; she seemed to simply echo others' comments. But she was a bit behind, so that might be part of it.

Worried about (for reasons already stated)
Gil
Nogrod

That makes it quite clear that she hadn't dreamed of several people. We already know she must have dreamed of Rikae, but aside from her she might have dreamed of Lottie, Greenie, or Nerwen. Probably didn't dream of McCaber or Morsul after all. In fact, I'm sure she didn't dream of Morsul, based on her next post.

#387-

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Gil and Nogrod would be my top choices. I'd rather not vote Morsul, but if it came between him and Rikae, I would choose Morsul.

So I don't think she dreamed of Morsul, but it looks like Gil or Nog-lynchin' time. Probably Gil, because it looks as if she dreamed of him and it's not so clear whether she dreamed of Nog.

#408 -

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Yeah Gil worries me, but I'm also worried about spreading out the votes too much.

#420 -

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Inzil, I would've preferred lynching Gil, but spreading out the votes seemed risky and I don't think enough suspected him for him to be lynched toDay.

Yep, looks like we're lynching Gil toDay. I was already planning on voting for him (after kicking myself for my vote yesterDay), but this just sets that in diamond. We could discuss Gil more, but the time could probably be better used on working out the identities of the other wizards.

Anyway. Gil, have you got any defence?

And Greenie, presumably your reasons from yesterDay weren't the only ones you had for suspecting Boro. Could you tell us now about what the rest was?

[Coppermirror]

On the assumption that Gil really is a wizard:

- There's a chance that, given Gil's apparent usual playing style, they will have thought right from the start that there was a good risk of him being lynched for that. Accordingly, they probably took some extra care when talking about him, and would have been ready in advance to bus him. I think that's something we should bear in mind when looking back on previous Days.

- So, they certainly wouldn't defend him toDay. And Gil might not even bother to show up. All these things will limit the information available to us.

- We can best use the day in looking for the other wizards. To stay quiet and to allow the wizards to stay quiet is to lose the opportunity to gather more info.

[Nerwen]

Okay. It looks like Rikae must be innocent, and Rikae, I'm sorry I suspected you. However, I did believe you needed looking at, and I countered your arguments because I thought they were really strange and didn't make sense. And the fact is, I have seen you behave that way as a wolf. Okay?

[Inziladun]

So people are leaning toward Gil being the main suspect?
I've thought he looked dodgy anyway, hence my vote yesterNight. I have to wonder why they didn't choose me instead of Brinn though, unless they took a chance that I was too careless in my suspicions to be a Seer.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

On the assumption that Gil really is a wizard:

- There's a chance that, given Gil's apparent usual playing style, they will have thought right from the start that there was a good risk of him being lynched for that. Accordingly, they probably took some extra care when talking about him, and would have been ready in advance to bus him. I think that's something we should bear in mind when looking back on previous Days.

- So, they certainly wouldn't defend him toDay. And Gil might not even bother to show up. All these things will limit the information available to us.

You seem rather sure of how things with Gil have and will play out.

[Morsul the Dark]

Here's my worry.

If Gil is nota wizard that means they've got two easy lynches to pull out at a critical time.

Both I and him seem to be easy to throw suspicion at. I don't play with him often, some things he says are odd, but I Think I understand.

I know why I come under fire. Because I say every idea that comes into mind while posting I don't care whether or not it'll sound suspicious, if someone wishes they can twist what is said anyway. which leads to "sloppy" posts sometimes.

I think I have to look into some people really going after me and Gil It's easy to suspect us, so those voters might be throwing suspicion thus looking helpful without actually accomplishing much.