WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

One more thing about Rikae- she can't logically claim that wolves often frame people *and* that they rarely try to kill the the Seer (and that everyone should know this). The whole business of framing someone depends on the assumption that the wolves will try to get the Seer if they can.

Actually, I don't find that to be a logical fallacy. Of course the wizards want to kill the Seer - but what if they just don't have the information necessary to be confident about who the Seer is? Are they just going to kill whoever seems to be most confident in the guilt of one of the wizards? Of course not! That would be suicidal. At that point, the wizards would kill someone they don't think is Seer, simply because that benefits them most. Look at how toDay is working out. Say the wizards didn't think Volo was the Seer, and only killed him to frame Rikae. The wizards are getting a great deal out of this so far, aren't they? We haven't taken our attention off Rikae all Day, and now we've only got four hours to DL and we haven't got a single actual candidate for wizardry!

Of course, it's possible they did kill Volo for potential Seerness, and Rikae is a wizard. In this scenario, how well do you think it turned out for the wizards? They're down a cobbler and a wizard. Now tell me a wizard would never kill someone they didn't think was the Seer. It seems to me that following that policy is suicidal and stupid from the perspective of a wizard. I think Rikae had a good point, is too frustrated at the moment to really defend it, and is being bullied by you, a wizard, taking advantage of an easy kill.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen