WW CI - Mutton yesterDay, mutton toDay and mutton toMorrow

[Inziladun]

I don't see anything in Greenie's previous Night posts that strikes me. She's really back-and-forth on her suspicions though.

It turns out she did make one post the last Night, but there doesn't seem to be much to it.

She responds to Cop questioning her about why she wouldn't elaborate on her suspicions on Boro the Night he was lynched. He answer was that she thought Cop might be the Clever Troll who had dreamed him. She then said that Brinn being the Clever Troll put Rikae in the clear and thought it unlikely Gil, and especially Nog, were dreamed by Brinn.

She ended by questioning Nerwen's positing that Brinn may have hinted that she was going to dream Nog.

[Morsul the Dark]

Ok, I have to work in the morning and won't be around before deadline so I have pretty much the next hour and maybe an hour in the morning.

I'm probably not going to vote today because it would be a fairly hasty decision and based on the same evidence I had yesterday.

I will say this though unless we're blessed with a clever/lucky purseholder we have toNight and the next to get the lynch right otherwise we lose.

Did I not warn of that scenario yesterday Gil and Morsul easy lynches suddenly the villageis one lynch away from a loss and with three wizards that'd be pretty easy to arrange one wrong vote they bandwagon and poof the end.

If you can tell I'm not exactly sunshiney and happy today I'll do what I can to help But honestly my list in no particular order of suspiciousness.

Lottie
Sally
Nerwen or Nog

Edit: x'ed with McCab yeah I meant ranger but the purseholder is still in play so there's that...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Did I not warn of that scenario yesterday Gil and Morsul easy lynches suddenly the villageis one lynch away from a loss and with three wizards that'd be pretty easy to arrange one wrong vote they bandwagon and poof the end.

The trouble is, though some people might have been ready to lynch Gil on the supposition he had been dreamed, what really did for him was the way he acted yesterDay. I don't think I've ever seen an innocent act that much like a flailing wolf.

And that's the trouble. Wolfish votes for him are going to be hard to pick- I mean they probably won't look opportunistic or unreasoned.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The trouble is, though some people might have been ready to lynch Gil on the supposition he had been dreamed, what really did for him was the way he acted yesterDay. I don't think I've ever seen an innocent act that much like a flailing wolf.

And that's the trouble. Wolfish votes for him are going to be hard to pick- I mean they probably won't look opportunistic or unreasoned.

Except the one who said nothing except he's a bit suspicious and voted for him when the wind changed. That vote looked pretty opportunistic to me.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Do't we have this one and one more if the ranger doesn't get any more saves? Last I played it was when villagers = wolves that we lost. Of course, I've been gone for a while so I might be misremembering.

Wouldn't an innocent lynch toNight make it 6:3?

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I'm probably not going to vote today because it would be a fairly hasty decision and based on the same evidence I had yesterday.

You're not going to vote? Or maybe you mean "today" as in RL day.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I will say this though unless we're blessed with a clever/lucky purseholder we have toNight and the next to get the lynch right otherwise we lose.

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Did I not warn of that scenario yesterday Gil and Morsul easy lynches suddenly the villageis one lynch away from a loss and with three wizards that'd be pretty easy to arrange one wrong vote they bandwagon and poof the end.

Aren't you making contradictory conclusions there?

[Morsul the Dark]

I mean RL Between now and DL I havea total of maybe two hours tops.

How are the contradicting they both amount to we might only have two lynches left before we lose...

edit: this is in response to Zil if not clear

[McCaber]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Wouldn't an innocent lynch toNight make it 6:3?

Yes, and unless I'm greatly mistaken it would need to be 3 villagers to 3 wolves for us to lose, as opposed to the 6 villagers to 3 wolves we'd have if we missed our lynch today.

Can I please get an official clarification on this?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

I mean RL Between now and DL I havea total of maybe two hours tops.

How are the contradicting they both amount to we might only have two lynches left before we lose...

edit: this is in response to Zil if not clear

Originally Posted by McCaber

Yes, and unless I'm greatly mistaken it would need to be 3 villagers to 3 wolves for us to lose, as opposed to the 6 villagers to 3 wolves we'd have if we missed our lynch today.

Can I please get an official clarification on this?

Man, this incoming weather and tiredness are getting to me. It's obviously time for bed.

[Inziladun]

Tomorrow is looking to be pretty hectic, but I'll get in here when I can. Hopefully with a less distracted mind.

[Loslote]

Okay, there's only ten of us left, guys - we must be able to narrow this down to some extent.

Innocent, probably
Cop
Zil
Sally
Rikae
Lottie (in my list, anyway)

Under my radar
Kath
Cabbie

Suspect, to some degree
Morsul
Nerwen
Nog

...okay then. Well. I'll take a close look at Kath and Cabbie, but for the most part, those are the three who have seemed off all game. That also reminds me suddenly of how Morsul flipped between the other two in that list for which one to suspect, then (without explaining the logic) chose Nerwen. It seems to me that he was trying to include wolf-on-wolf, but didn't quite commit enough.

I would say, lynch one of those three toNight, and we'll probably be pretty likely to catch us a Wizard.

Like I said, I'll look at Kath and Cabbie when I get back from class, just to make sure I'm not overlooking anything, but I'm pretty sure this is the way things lie at the moment.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by McCaber

Yes, and unless I'm greatly mistaken it would need to be 3 villagers to 3 wolves for us to lose, as opposed to the 6 villagers to 3 wolves we'd have if we missed our lynch today.

Can I please get an official clarification on this?

6-3missed lynch
5-3Wizard kill
4-3missed lynch
3-3wizard kill

that's the math I've got

[Rikae]

I'm strongly considering voting for Morsul:

-for trying to lump himself in with Gil yesterday as an "easy lynch".
-for the countdown to a wizard victory. Yes, it's just the facts, but something about the way he posted looks like counting down to his own win. I can't put my finger on what that "something" is, but it feels wrong.

[Morsul the Dark]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm strongly considering voting for Morsul:

-for trying to lump himself in with Gil yesterday as an "easy lynch".
-for the countdown to a wizard victory. Yes, it's just the facts, but something about the way he posted looks like counting down to his own win. I can't put my finger on what that "something" is, but it feels wrong.

It's something that was being discussed Cab asked for clarification so I clarified it.

Cool though, you want to vote for me I understand, wouldn't want to mess up this losing streak we're on(sarcasm). I'm going to sleep now.

Also after a quick reread Nerwen overcame Nog as my third suspect.

Trying to decide if I should vote.

Actually yeah not really anything will change my mind on this...

++Sally

reasons I stated yesterday haven't changed didn't like How she voted Gil If I was her top suspect the whole time why not vote me? Looks like she just wanted to look like another befuddled ordo.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I really feel like several people want us to lynch Morsul today. Like three.

Including you, as well? Just saying.

Originally Posted by Rikae

I'm strongly considering voting for Morsul:

-for trying to lump himself in with Gil yesterday as an "easy lynch".
-for the countdown to a wizard victory. Yes, it's just the facts, but something about the way he posted looks like counting down to his own win. I can't put my finger on what that "something" is, but it feels wrong.

I apologize for my quietness. The severe weather passed us by with no damage, thankfully, but it created some inconvenience. That plus a busy workday equals little time for WW. I'm going to at least vote, if nothing else. Yes, I'm looking at Morsul, primarily because he looks worse than any one else. The martyr-syndrome coupled with what appears to be hypocrisy about Sally's vote as compared to his own.

[Coppermirror]

I'm not intending to vote super early toDay. My choice is to either vote before I sleep, or get up unpleasantly early in the morning to read things through and vote before I go out for the day, and this time I think I'll do the latter, since things are getting pretty bad. But even with that I'll still be having to vote 5 or 6 hours before the deadline.

[Coppermirror]

There is nothing which stands out clearly in Inzil's behaviour as suspicious. If he's a wizard, he's playing an exceptionally careful and subtle game. I'm still inclined to think he's probably innocent. Things could only really change here depending on further information.

Of Kath, there is painfully, painfully little content to judge her by. (I'm sure she's busy IRL, regardless of guilt or innocence.) From the little shown, she seems pretty reasonable, but that doesn't really mean much.

Going by her posts, I don't think it's likely for there to be a Kath-Morsul wizard pack going on here. Unless the Wizard of Oz cobbler stuff was a clever plan, and I don't think it was, especially since it was still getting brought up in later Days.

I should have voted about 15 minutes ago, yelp. I'm thinking of voting Nog or Morsul. I wish there'd been more discussion toDay.

Suspicions list:

Not especially worried about:
Loslote
Rikae
Inzil

Worried about:
Kath
McCaber
Nerwen
Sally - in light of people's posts lately.

Really worried about:
Morsul
Nog

People are right that Morsul would be an easy lynch for wizards to push for, so we do need to be cautious not to have another Gil type lynch. But then, Morsul really is suspicious. I may well be voting for him in a minute. It's down to him and Nog because I need to vote ASAP.

[Coppermirror]

No more time, so:

++Morsul

because he's ten kinds of suspicious, much more suspicious than anyone else. I understand we might be in for Gil#2 here, but I can't not vote for someone who's this suspicious only because of that.

[Kath]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror
Nog's Day 1 voting was suspicious, but in terms of Brin's dreams I think Gil is the better bet. If that turns out to be wrong I'd probably want to vote Nog tomorrow.
Saw this as I went through yesterDay and it interested me to see if she'd hold to it. She is still focused on Nog with Morsul a close second so this is consistent. But, and it's an important but, she then votes Morsul having not actually mentioned specifically why he is suspicious. He is 'much more suspicious than anyone else' but no reasoning as to why.


By sally - Originally Posted by Brinniel
Gil and Nogrod would be my top choices. I'd rather not vote Morsul, but if it came between him and Rikae, I would choose Morsul.
So she's not dreamt Morsul. That much is pretty clear. If she had, she either wouldn't have expressed a preference or she would have expressed the opposite.

She could have dreamt Gil, given this bit and the exchange she had with Cop late yesterDay, but then there's this....
Nooo, I would say it is the 'if it came between him and Rikae' bit that's important. She is making a very clear statement that she won't vote Rikae. I'd say she was the dream there.

Plus there was then the statement that Gil was unlikely to be a wizard as Brinn would have voted Gil if she had dreamed him a wizard - followed by a vote for Gil with no further information on why.

From that read-through sally and Cop aren't looking great. I'm wary with Morsul. I still think he is suspicious for that comment the other Day. However, I haven't looked at him in particular recently and I wonder if I'm being swayed by that original knee-jerk reaction. I will have another look at him.

[Nerwen]

Kath, as I understood it, Sally was doubtful about Gil having been dreamed, but went on to vote him because of his suspicious posting. As I said to Morsul, I don't really have a problem with that- though of course that may be because it mirrors my own reactions at the time.

x'd with Nog

[Kath]

Morsul:

Day 1:
'will watch' Brinn, Pom is usually suspicious. Only concrete statements in a list post. Knew nothing of Brinn, was correct about Pom. Wolf-mates or lucky comment?

Pom's suggestion seems to be fairly genuine little information is better than no information.
Genuine or Captain Obvious statement. Either way little need for it to be further commented on unless to try and make Pom look good. With the statement from above, more likely to be wolf-mates.

Questions me being a Cobbler and further comments on it. Oddly, actually, he says that the reason was that I said wizards were wonderful - no suggestion that it was anything to do with Oz. That eventually made some sense to me, if he was picking on it just for the 'wonderful' part then that's weird.

Day 2:
Sorry for low participation on Night 1 had to work a double... ToNight will be better early plus I'll have a few hours before DL.

Looking over Night one will post comments.
Night activities on the brain?

A Little Green, "Green"- Showed up late but came out swinging voted Cab but levels some suspicion on Pom and Copp may wanted to look innocent suspecting Pom but voted an innocent Cab.
I'm sorry I still don't buy this 'hypothetical' thing. You AREN'T making a hypothetical point here in any way. No one, in any scenario, knows Cab is innocent - unless you're a wizard.

Right now Lottie is probably my top suspicion.

Like I said in my recap She was only the second vote for Pom.

She may have thought Cab was a sure lynch and therefore wasn't too worried about voting for a packmate.
If Morsul is a wolf this looks good for Lottie ... and possibly incriminate Nog as he is mentioned in the next post as being innocent if Lottie is a wolf.

Day 3:
Determined Rikae is a frustrated self-voting wolf. I suppose if he hasn't come across Rikae's overreactions before it makes sense. Does seem fairly honestly bewildered by the whole Rikae thing, but if he is a wolf that's easy to put on to push the votes for her.

Day 4:
Puts himself in the same boat as Gil. If he's a wolf, and therefore knows Gil is innocent, this is a clever move. Still throwing Lottie's name out but takes umbrage at sally being very determined to defend Nerwen.

Day 5:
Has a suspicion list of Lottie and sally (consistent with yesterDay) and then Nerwen/Nog - no explanation for last two. Then 'Nerwen overtook Nog' - WHY?!

Votes:
Day 1 - Kath (to me terrible reasoning!)
Day 2 - Ozban (so what happened to Lottie being his top suspicion?)
Day 3 - Rikae (knee-jerk reaction after Rikae's self-vote. Bit opportunistic.)
Day 4 - sally (oddly I agree with the vote, I just think it's suddenly out of nowhere.)
Day 5 - sally (consistent with yesterDay)

[satansaloser2005]

I am so not caught up, and I won't actually be back except for right now. I'm terribly sorry.

++Morsul

I guess I shouldn't have been distracted by Gil's craziness yesterDay. Bah. Anyway, must go. Again, I'm sorry.

[McCaber]

Anyway, a look at Morsul the Dark.

Post 8: Initial thoughts of all the players with absolutely nothing to go on. If he has a thought on someone, it's suspicion. I guess as it should be on day 1.
Post 16: Wants to avoid knee-jerk reactions for the game. Let's see how well that went.
Post 17: comment on how many players there are.
Post 19: correction on the gender of Gil.
Post 22: Pom looks good based on her initial statements.
Post 24: Kath might be a cobbler based on singing about the Wonderful Wizard of Oz.
Post 59: Explains his suspicion of Kath.
Post 60: Votes Kath.

Post 152: Celebration about the ranger save and apologies for low participation.
Post 156: Thoughts on all the players. Says to watch CM. This is where he posts his contentious statement saying that if I'm hypothetically innocent, then Greenie might be a wolf. This immediately gets jumped on because of poor syntax, but I understood what he was trying to say.
Post 159: Continuation on thoughts. Says Kath was too quiet, I'm suspicious, and Nog is contradictory. Rolls his eyes at Nerwen.
Post 161: Closing thoughts. Rikae and Sally seem innocent. For all he just posted a big list, I feel like he didn't really say anything here.
Post 164: Suspects Lottie the most for voting for Pom when she did.
Post 165: If Lottie's a wolf, that may clear Nogrod because she's attacking him a bit. Again, strange. When a wolf slips up, often another wolf is one of the ones to catch it and criticize it.
Post 167: DL is at a bad time for him.
Post 172: Explains suspecting Lottie, as it's all in the timing. Explains his statement about me in 156.
Post 177: Says that his logic makes sense to him, and not to anyone else because helicopters. Now that's just weird, no matter what posting style you have.
Post 234: Again says his statement about me was a hypothetical.
Post 240: Votes Ozban for voting for him.
Post 246: Again explains his hypothetical.

Post 280: Feels good about a cobbler dying and bad about lynching an innocent. Says he's probably going to get lynched, and that he'll look into those who voted for him and Ozban.
Post 294: Explaining why he won't be there, while saying there'd be confusion if the wolves killed him. As bad as I think that sounds, it makes sense. He was under really heavy fire the previous day.
Post 312: Votes Rikae out of nowhere for being unhelpful. Now this one gives me a lot of pause.
Post 329: Explains why he voted Rikae. Hearing his reasons still doesn't make me like them any more.
Post 356: Again explains his vote. He just keeps digging...
Post 360: deeper...
Post 377: and deeper...

Post 434: Says the Boro wagon on the previous day sort of stinks.
Post 439: Draws parallels between Gil and himself, saying that they're both easy lynches but the wrong choice. I'm not going to lie, it looks a lot like he hopped right on what he thought would be an easy bandwagon earlier and now is trying to ninja himself out of it. And comparing him with a known innocent Gil would be a brilliant tactic for a wolf to take there.
Post 480: Shock that Sally didn't vote for him. If he is a wolf, I'm not sure he'd draw attention to a packmate like that.
Post 482: Votes Sally for not voting him, while still suspecting Lottie.
Post 487: Again attacks Sally for voting for Gil.
Post 489: Elaborates his position on Lottie. She leapt on his hypothetical way back in day 2 and he's holding a grudge for it. Also she voted for a wizard.

Post 498: Generic "I'm here".
Post 512: Has to work, probably won't vote. Suspects Lottie, Sally, Nerwen, and Nogrod.
Post 513: Clarification.
Post 516: Answering Inzil's questions.
Post 517: Again attacks Sally.
Post 521: Answers my question (commenting on this feels really meta, for some reason).
Post 524: Sarcastically snaps at Rikae, votes Sally for changing who her top suspect was, even though just a moment ago he had Lottie as his own most wanted and voted for someone else.

So yeah, he might be innocent and confused, but from here he honestly looks pretty bad. Maybe after his attempt at bandwagoning Rikae didn't pan out, he switched to Sally? I feel like some parallels are there.

[McCaber]

I swear, whoever came up with this "post about the people beneath you" idea just wants me to erode my fingers at this keyboard. Giving me the two most prolific ones in the thread, grumble grumble. Anyway, about Nerwen:

Post 27: IC post about Pom
Post 28: Yells at G55 about butting her head in.
Post 34: IC at Rikae and Morsul saying they're fulla hooey.
Post 37: IC at Sally.
Post 41: "
Post 46: "
Post 48: "
Post 54: Gets serious, wonders what Morsul saw when he accused Kath.
Post 57: Goes at CM for suspecting Boro based on nothing.
Post 63: IC about Bane.
Post 64: Says Morsul might have a point, but only barely.
Post 68: Defends her suspicion of CM.
Post 69: Defends herself against Brinn.
Post 74: Says Gil looks bad for hopping on a bandwagon.
Post 77: More against Gil.
Post 80: Defends herself, and attacks Gil again.
Post 85: More on Gil.
Post 88: Defends herself for attacking Gil.

Post 168: Lays out the options why Pom might have panicked. CM or I are innocent, CM or I are wolves, or CM's the cobbler. Yep, those are indeed the options there.
Post 174: Asks if Pom got bussed. Says Inzil or Lottie are likelier to be wolves than Sally in that case, but it's more likely that the wolves tried to save her.
Post 176: Wonders where Morsul's getting his logic from. Which is a very sensible question, as based on my previous post it's obvious I have no idea.
Post 180: More against Morsul.
Post 181: Says that CM might not be a wolf, because of Pom's pronouns. A weak point.
Post 183: Admits it's a weak point.
Post 184: Questions CM about other people finding her suspicious.
Post 188: Early analysis of Nogrod. Her conclusion: that some looks pretty standard for him, but some looks bad.
Post 189: Criticism of Brinn and Gil for calling her defensive.
Post 190: More pronouns.
Post 193: More wondering about Nog's intentions.
Post 196: Votes Nogrod and says Volo needs looking at. One confirmed fact, right there!

Post 287: More wondering about Nog.
Post 288: Says killing Volo was a weird thing for the wolves to do, and wants people to try and see why.
Post 297: Her own Volalyis. Rikae and Boro need some looking at according to it.
Post 300: Yells at Rikae for voting herself.
Post 302: Votes Rikae. Really weird vote there, but by itself it doesn't mean much.
Post 306: Explains why she voted Rikae.
Post 309: More explanation.
Post 311: Her thoughts on what Nog meant. It looks like a decent interpretation, as far as I can tell.
Post 315: Analyzing the Ozwagon. Basically, since Oz wasn't a wolf, it's likely that Morsul would be as he was the other one on the block.
Post 316: Explains why she voted Rikae again.
Post 325: Still really weirded out by what Rikae keeps saying.
Post 337: See above.
Post 338: See above.
Post 341: See above.
Post 342: See above.
Post 344: See above. This whole exchange is hella strange to me. Like, I just don't get it.
Post 346: Enought about Rikae. Finally. Says to look at Greenie/Boro.
Post 348: More about Rikae.
Post 349: "
Post 355: Threatens to ragequit herself.
Post 357: Comments about Morsul for voting Rikae. A really weird exchance, considering the amount of trouble she just went through to suspect her.

Post 438: Says Rikae is likely innocent and apologizes.
Post 442: Says that if Gil is innocent and if it was her defence of Rikae what tipped them off, then Lottie was a more logical target that night, so probably it was either random that Brinn died or a misdirection. I think that's what she's getting at, anyway.
Post 445: Says that Brinn might have hinted at dreaming about Nog.
Post 448: More spats with Rikae, this time apologetic.
Post 449: Maybe Brinn knew that either Nog was a wolf or Rikae was innocent.
Post 451: Says Gil only looks more suspicious after he said Brinn might have dreamed him.
Post 458: Exchanges with Gil. Says that he might be a framed innocent with a paranoid fixation on her.
Post 461: Brinn wanted Gil to be lynched. But she might have dreamed Nogrod as per post 445.
Post 463: More about how weird Gil is being.
Post 467: Gil looks more evil than paranoid.
Post 470: Says that she didn't start the fire, it was always burning since Gil started it.

Post 502: Says she's pressed for time today and might not be able to make an analysis.
Post 503: Lottie thought Gil and Nerwen are both wolves, she thinks.
Post 504: Yes, post 503 had the correct interpretation.
Post 514: Says that for all Gil was innocent, he looked really bad, so IDing wolves could be really tough.
Post 527: Explains Sally's vote yesterday and that no, Morsul, it doesn't look that suspicious.
Post 528: Morsul does indeed look bad.

I'm not gonna lie, I find it really hard to get a read off of Nerwen based on this. She feels innocent, but a few things like that whole Rikae exchange and a few of the things she said yesterday just read really weirdly to me. She has posted quite a bit, but not really said a lot.