Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[Nerwen]

Note: I had to leave halfway though composing this, hence the delay. No idea who has posted in the meantime; I am afraid to refresh for fear of Serverman, Lord of the Code.

Echo, Day Two
#105 [First post of the Day]

Originally Posted by Echo

Are we aloud to post now?
if we are i would like to say, may Inzil rest in shredded pieces.
hmmm i was mildly suspicious about him, but no matter now.




the reason i whatch my back at night
holby~ its not just me noticing her weird QUIET behavior but youd know better than me, im just a new nobody
cop~ hes either really good or really bad,...but im still havent desided which. (hopfully good)


mildly suspicious of
green~ill have to pick a better reason than the one ive got,...you dont sit right with me though.
AND everyone else.
[u]other[u]
Boro~ what can i say other than hes nice and welcomed me, i have no reason to suspect him........yet.



well ponder my list. think of me evil or think of me not,..i dont care.
but youll think of me the way you think when you think it. but if i die today or tonight you will get no further.

You see what I was talking about– this post just by itself could well have been enough to get Echo killed!

#108.

Originally Posted by Echo

as am i cop,
hobbits dont live in dirty,nasty, wet holes filled with the ends of worms,...but do holbyts?...........

More suspicion of Holby.

#109

Originally Posted by Echo

i patiently wait for the bantering and finger pionting..... though its quite late but no worry i eagerly wait!!! (well not the finger pionting if its at me)

#114. [Replying to me at #112, when I asked Echo to explain the Day One vote.]

Originally Posted by Echo

hmm all you need know is i dont think kath is quite important anymore,...does this have profound meaning?!,...i guess if you want it to,..but i find someone else making my skin crawl,....

And more. This seems to me more easy to interpret as “Forget Kath, I’ve definitely got a wolf this time,” than as “I dreamed Kath and she was innocent”.

#128.
Re-posts Holby’s Day One suspicion list, pointing out that the names are grouped by number of vowels/syllables.

Originally Posted by Echo

it was supost to be a joke,.... but shes posting vague things just so she cant seem suspicious or slip up.

Yet more.

#129.

Originally Posted by Echo

perhaps you might think my last post gives her justice that shes innocent? but i was observant enough to figure out her list. though dose not explain why she wouldnt just tell us about the list or perhaps i am wrong?....

And so on...

#161.

Originally Posted by Echo

all this talk of reasoning...makes my head hurt (quite litterally) i voted kath under mild suspicions ...and due to other people talking about her,...makes no sense to vote for someone if your going to be the only one....(like voting for the third presidential party),.....and its not easy voting when your in the back of a moving car thinking the DL is in minutes,..so i hope very dearly that is enough reasoning.

i will try to muster up a better reasoning of why i suspect Holby,...right now the best way to put it is a very strong gut feeling.....

And so forth... Note, by the way, how Echo more-or-less admits needing to come up with a case to justify an existing suspicion.

#175.

Originally Posted by Echo

because i didnt care about legate and i still dont he didnt make me suspect him much.......as for greenie,.....well ill save my fingerpionting for later,..
of course you probebly want an explenation for that last sentence,...ill get back to you on that.

Very cryptic– I suppose Echo had noticed something about Greenie, but never got around to saying what.

#179.

Originally Posted by Echo

hmmm interesting,..but sorry doll.
and the part about me and holby,...that was cute,..i laughed

I think this refers to #170, where Lommy lists Echo and Holby as “unlikely packmates”.

#205.[3rd vote on Holby]

Originally Posted by Echo

++HOLBY,...!!!!!!!!!!!

#210

Originally Posted by Echo

if i dont make it tonight,..green leaves fall on my grave

“I’m the Seer, I’ve done my job, farewell... Unless you feel like protecting me, Ranger.” That’s how it would read to the wolves, I imagine. Unless you take “green leaves” to be a supposed “Seer-hint" regarding Greenie (cf #175)– but it’s so weak compared to all the Holby-stuff that it would have to be no more than an intention to dream her next.

Well, that had to be done. Fairly useless, though. As you see, I’ve ended pretty much exactly where I started: I believe they thought Echo was a Seer who had dreamed Holby. There is little else to be got from Echo’s posts, except that, as already mentioned, his/her survival after the first Day is a point in Kath’s favour.

One thing I have noticed is that nearly all Echo’s posts have a white tree icon, while the first has a green leaf. Possibly the wolves thought this meant something. Possibly they were meant to think this– I am leaning now towards the idea that Echo may have been deliberately acting as bait. A very unusual ploy for a complete newbie to try– but I just honestly can’t work out why else an ordo would say half the things Echo did.

EDIT:X’d with Coppermirror & moddess.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, that had to be done.

Really? For someone who talks about unnecessary posting, the last two posts were an awfully long way of saying 'a Holby dream was more likely'. And then there's this point:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Actually... after looking at all this, I’d say it does speak for Kath’s innocence (particularly #62). Not because Echo was killed last Night, but because he/she wasn’t killed the Night before. Er– whatever Night that was– this being an important point. Apparently we began with a Day phase. In that case the Seer may have had no initial dream– if this is so, and the wolves knew it, it somewhat weakens the case for Kath.

What you're saying here is that the sorcerers would rather kill a new player whose playing style they know nothing about and which gained him/her a lot of suspicion and confusion instead of someone who everyone thought was innocent and was fairly no-trace after the first day? Considering the normal depth of your analysis, this looks like it could be a sneaky way to make it look like you didn't consider the situation fully to look more like an innocent. I'm starting to see where the Nerwen-votes are coming from. And Holby voting for you as she died does not help.

Not to mention that I thought we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely. I don't think anyone actually suggest a Kath-dream to be more likely, except for me within the context of a 'make-it-look-like-we-though-Echo-is-a-seer' kill.

edit: x-ed with Cop

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Really? For someone who talks about unnecessary posting, the last two posts were an awfully long way of saying 'a Holby dream was more likely'. And then there's this point:
What you're saying here is that the sorcerers would rather kill a new player whose playing style they know nothing about and which gained him/her a lot of suspicion and confusion instead of someone who everyone thought was innocent and was fairly no-trace after the first day?

No. I’m saying that if Kath was a wolf, Echo on Day One would have probably looked more like a gifted to the wolves than Inzil. This is a very simple and obvious point, such as I should have expected an experienced player like yourself to grasp quite easily. The fact that you don’t– or at least you claim you don’t... interesting...

Originally Posted by Steve

Not to mention that I thought we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely. I don't think anyone actually suggest a Kath-dream to be more likely, except for me within the context of a 'make-it-look-like-we-though-Echo-is-a-seer' kill.

I thought I had better do an analysis just to settle the matter, and just in case there was something more to be gleaned. There wasn’t, but how could I know that until I’d done it?

Again, a simple, routine procedure. And yet, according to you, a sign of wickedness. Really.

Originally Posted by Steve

I'm starting to see where the Nerwen-votes are coming from.

You mean Holby..., right?

[Nerwen]

Holbalysis

Holbytlass, Day One.

#18.

Originally Posted by Holby

i have been gone long in my travels and only now return.
some are known but most aren't.

i did want to come to the village square and say hello before returning to my humble abode and unpack and think and become paranoid and....

#33

how 'bout voting for these confusing debaters of the "rule of three"-too bad we cant "lynch of three"

highly suspect
Shasta
Nerwen
Green
Boro
Steve

very suspect
Kath
Dun
Cop

much suspect
Lottie
Echo
Legate
Lommy

innocent
McCobbler


it should be plainly obvious my reasonings!!

Echo believed this list was arranged according to number of syllables in the players’ names. Holby’s next posts tends to support this.

Originally Posted by Holby

don't like abstaining voters, esp day 1 where any reason is mostly justified because it is day 1.

the wagon jumping done here by legate and little green to lommie's suspicions of copper is unsettling. [arranging suspect list to first letter of names]

So... one of those Holby “suspects” here is an innocent (Legate). It’s a common enough wolf-ploy to pair one’s fellow’s name with that of an innocent, and that could have been what she did here. Or not. It would be quite a stretch to call it an actual point against Greenie.

Originally Posted by Holby

a three way tie!?!

++LEGATE

since out of the three hes suspicious to me

This was the third vote for Legate, bringing him to a tie with Kath. Other candidates were Cop (2 votes) and me (1 vote). Note that Holby’s stated intention here is to break the tie (as was Lottie’s in voting for Kath). If we take that at face-value, then their votes crossed and Holby did not realise Kath had just got a third vote. However, Holby’s vote is timestamped two minutes after Lottie’s.

Where am I going with this? Not sure... just looking for signs of our known wolf showing a preference for one candidate over another. Hmmn. Inconclusive, I’d say.

Holbytlass, Day Two
#130. Post consists entirely of the “Stick out tongue” emoticon, in response to a comment of Lottie’s (#101) the Day before. Not very informative, but it does rather sum up Holby’s attitude!

#133.

Originally Posted by Holby

ooh, good thinking-even if i'm on the list

but then they will start looking at me..buts its helpful no matter what..but i hate people looking at me..we must find sorcers and kill them..cant we just leave,again..?

is this a subtle protection from those in league?

yes, maybe if one checks out #21 and #30, could be deflection..ooh using fancy words-and i just said that..but i was agreeing

must huddle and think and look at others

Um... Holby is an actual flesh-and-blood person, right? Not, say a sock-puppet of Nilp’s, by any chance?
Anyway, #21 and #30 are two Day one posts of mine. I’m not sure what she’s getting at, though– I think the idea is supposed to be that Lottie and I (and Coppermirror?) are packmates, raising points against each other only to dismiss them, or something like that.

Then Holby vanished for a long while, and voting happened.

When she returned, the tally run thus:

Boro -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Cop
Kath -> Cop (2)
Lommy -> Nerwen
Greenie -> Cop (3)
Lottie -> Holby
McCaber -> Holby (2)
Cop -> Holby (3)

Holby then cast her own, final vote:

Originally Posted by Holby

++ Nerwn

Apart from the fact that this “Nerwn”, whoever she may be, is not listed among the players, the vote isn’t even bolded. And yet Cop already had three votes. Had Holby resigned herself to death? But why? With only two players left to vote, she might well have survived if she voted Cop.

Obviously, this looks pretty bad for Coppermirror. This may, however, have been the idea (i.e. Holby thought she hadn’t long regardless, and thought it worth it to implicate an innocent). Or she may have panicked/lost count of the votes. Or just not cared. Very hard to know what Holby’s aims were at any point, really.

[Nerwen]

Oh yes–

I haven’t finished with you, yet, Mr Eonwe.

This is what you actually said, earlier in the Day (my bolding):

Originally Posted by Steve

I do think it should be addressed though.

If the sorcerers thought Echo was a seer, then Cop and Greenie are the most obvious answers for possible wolves (which funnily enough have topped my suspicion list since D1, but I won't let that cloud this post). Of course, it would also be risky to kill with such links - though Echo was enigmatic, Cop was next to Holby in the suspicious list, and Greenie a step below (and also pointed at in the annotated Holby's list) - though maybe not as risky as being found out. And of course if they're not, the sorcerers could just want to frame them.


On the other hand, it could be a 'let-them-think-we-think-Echo's-a-seer' kill, in which case it points to Kath. If Echo were a Seer, the most likely dreams would either be Kath as innocent or Holby as a sorcerer. Given the sudden sudden change, and lack of Holby suspicion on D1, the former would be more likely, so by killing Echo, Kath makes herself look amazingly innocent (i.e. makes us think the wolves thought her innocent).

Here it is, plain and clear: you stated that Echo’s death potentially implicated three players (with “Holby as sorcerer” being the least likely “dream”).

I took the (considerable) trouble to examine the evidence in some detail, in the course of this demonstrating why it didn’t actually support your conclusions.

This, according to you, is a highly sinister course of action, not to mention useless, since–

Originally Posted by Eonwe

we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely.

Who’s “we"? You certainly hadn’t.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

No. I’m saying that if Kath was a wolf, Echo on Day One would have probably looked more like a gifted to the wolves than Inzil. This is a very simple and obvious point, such as I should have expected an experienced player like yourself to grasp quite easily. The fact that you don’t– or at least you claim you don’t... interesting...

New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Here it is, plain and clear: you stated that Echo’s death potentially implicated three players (with “Holby as sorcerer” being the least likely “dream”).

Ok, I know it was late and my wording was less than clear, but the two paragraphs are obviously separate scenarios. In the first one, Holby being dreamt is implicit- why would they fear Echo otherwise? In the second, it's meant to be how a wolf-Kath would approach it, and obviously for her it would be better to get people to believe the wolves thought it she that was dreamt.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Who’s “we"? You certainly hadn’t.

The next sentence of my post holds the answer (i.e. what I just said above):

Originally Posted by Eönwë

I thought we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely. I don't think anyone actually suggest a Kath-dream to be more likely, except for me within the context of a 'make-it-look-like-we-though-Echo-is-a-seer' kill.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I thought I had better do an analysis just to settle the matter, and just in case there was something more to be gleaned. There wasn’t, but how could I know that until I’d done it?

Again, a simple, routine procedure. And yet, according to you, a sign of wickedness. Really.

Ok, I've actually had a bit of a change of heart about this. I don't think you were posting just to look like you were being helpful. With all the confusingness that is Echo, we need as much clarity and certainty as we can get. Sometimes it is better to be safe than sorry.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Steve

New players are unpredictable. And with the way Echo was posting, I could definitely see the wolves opting to wait another day. If they went for him/her, it would totally implicate Kath whether or not Echo was actually the Seer. In this scenario, they would have been on the alert for seerishness from Echo yesterDay, and, well, they were definitely given it. And anyway, I find it unlikely that Zil was attempt at a gifted at all.

Sure. You’re under no obligation to agree with my reasoning. That’s not the point, Steve.

Originally Posted by Steve

The next sentence of my post holds the answer (i.e. what I just said above):
Quote:

I am aware that you were describing two separate scenarios. However, you said:
"If Echo were a Seer, the most likely dreams would either be Kath as innocent or Holby as a sorcerer. Given the sudden change, and lack of Holby suspicion on D1, the former would be more likely”
Here, yes, you’re talking about your double-bluffing scenario (where Kath is a wolf killing Echo in order to look better). But your statement that Kath would have been the supposed Seer-Echo's “most likely dream" is a general one, not specific to that scenario.

Therefore, the contradiction remains.

Now, again, you don’t have to agree with me on why Echo was killed. I could be completely wrong. Despite the evidence, it may be that the wolves killed Echo for some other reason entirely. Who knows– except them, of course. What I do not appreciate is being heavily attacked simply for analysing the posts of a dead player, and especially for examining them in the light of scenarios suggested by you yourself.

Yes, you’re trying to back away from it all now– but you were ready to scream “sorcerer” at me before. On that note, I particularly don’t care for that little bit you threw in about, “Holby voting for you as she died”. No, not just on personal grounds– I'm actually wondering now if that was something cooked up overnight– “I know, let’s try and pass off Holby’s vote as wolf-on-wolf, heh, heh..."

[Thinlómien]

Alright! Quite glad about the recent turns of events as they clarify quite a lot of stuff (not to mention that we're one baddie down). Now, let's go and comment on stuff:


YesterDay

Originally Posted by Copper

Oops, Steve and Eonwe are not different people. Scratch that.

Maybe I'm tired but I totally cracked up at this.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Seem pretty good
Shasta
Kath
Lommy
McCaber (for now)

Don't particularly suspect
Boro

Something dark may lie beneath
Nerwen
Lottie

Suspicious
Cop
Greenie

What!?
Echo
Holby

I don't like this list at all. It seems lazy and mostly just echoing other people's opinions, especially lumping Holby and Echo in one category of confusion, it feels like Eönwë is trying to fish sympathy or goodwill (maybe not consciously) by joining in OMGing over Holby and Echo's weird behaviour. (Seriously, I think their "weirdness" was greatly exaggerated in this game and I admit taking some part in that too.)

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

My point that Lommy didn't seem to have realised is one of the biggest advantages the village has in this game, IMO, which is that it started with a Day phase. This means that although the sorcerers probably knew who the others were, they had no time to talk to each other and make plans. After Night #1, they are likely to have made contact and plans. They have a potential weakness in the switch between those times. This is something that innocents should be watching out for.

Then we just have different views on the topic. In my experience (admittedly I haven't been a wolf in ages so if you guys have developed new wolving routines in the past couple of years I wouldn't know ), wolves seldom make grand plans on Night1 anyway, it's mostly chatter and bonding and maybe minor planning plus warning packmates like "I will try to avoid voting for you guys but if you act really weird I'm gonna vote you" so I see no big advantage in them not being able to talk on Night1.

Originally Posted by Eönwë, 3min before the DL

Boro -> Lottie
Nerwen -> Cop
Kath -> Cop (2)
Lommy -> Nerwen
Greenie -> Cop (3)
Lottie -> Holby
McCaber -> Holby (2)
Cop -> Holby (3)
Holby -> Nerwen (2)
Echo -> Holby (4)

Originally Posted by Eönwë, 2min before the DL

Is there anyone else left to vote that's around now? I don't want to vote Cop and cause a tie.

Now if Eönwë is a wolf this is pretty freaking bold and my hats off go to him.

Speaking of the vote count above, it's pretty weird Holby didn't vote for Cop and try to save herself but instead went for Nerwen who only had one vote. Does this mean Cop is guilty, or that Holby was just being a bit careless (which she was before)?


ToDay

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Steve–

Since the person to whom Echo suddenly switched suspicions at the start of Day Two, and continued to pursue throughout the Day without giving any concrete reason, all the while muttering “I fear lest I be killed for my knowledge...” etc, etc. was, in fact, a wolf– well, it looks pretty straight-forward this time. I don’t think we need any elaborate theories to explain it– it would have been very surprising had they not killed her*.

Totally agreed.

Originally Posted by Boro

I wouldn't put Kath in the no-doubt innocent category, but she's the one I'm going to trust the most for the time being (stop getting so confused! ). If they had gone after Echo as the seer, then the sorcerers would have to think everything Echo said was right. (That being Holby = sorcerer and suddenly backing off Kath after the Day 1 vote)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Actually... after looking at all this, I’d say it does speak for Kath’s innocence (particularly #62). Not because Echo was killed last Night, but because he/she wasn’t killed the Night before. Er– whatever Night that was– this being an important point. Apparently we began with a Day phase. In that case the Seer may have had no initial dream– if this is so, and the wolves knew it, it somewhat weakens the case for Kath.

I agree that Kath looks pretty innocent now. It occured to me already on Day1 that Echo being the seer who dreamt of Kath might explain their weird behaviour and wouldn't consequently have been surprised if they had died already on Night2, so I'm totally ready to follow this logic.

Originally Posted by Copper

I'm either the Protector Wizard or the Pact Mage. I'm not the Aura Reader. I'd rather not say which of the other two I am at this point unless it's strictly necessary.

*heads explodes noisily* ARGGH. Since Day1 I've been flip-flopping on whether Cop looks more wolvish or gifted, and yesterDay I abstained from voting her and went for Nerwen instead of her because I thought she was hinting at being gifted. And now this ambiguous and thus uncontestable reveal, which would be pretty darn cunning from a wolf in dire straits. Well, I guess we should just give Cop the benefit of doubt for a Day or two and see what happens...

I'm at loss as for Eönwë and Nerwen's row toDay. I'm always quite careful to label any arguments as two innocents fighting, but I'd be inclined to do it this time. Eönwë looks pretty innocent for his open fishing of support to lynch Cop instead of Holby (a wolf would be quite brazen to do that) and Nerwen is putting effort into this game in a way that suggests innocence to me (I know I voted her yesterDay and my minor suspicions concerning have gone nowhere, I'm just pushing them back at the moment because they don't seem relevant in the big picture) - it looks like she's actually thinking about who the wolves might be, not just hanging around. Still, I'm baffled that Eönwë and Nerwen have both completely ignored Copper's reveal.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

*heads explodes noisily* ARGGH. Since Day1 I've been flip-flopping on whether Cop looks more wolvish or gifted, and yesterDay I abstained from voting her and went for Nerwen instead of her because I thought she was hinting at being gifted. And now this ambiguous and thus uncontestable reveal, which would be pretty darn cunning from a wolf in dire straits. Well, I guess we should just give Cop the benefit of doubt for a Day or two and see what happens...

I'm at loss as for Eönwë and Nerwen's row toDay. I'm always quite careful to label any arguments as two innocents fighting, but I'd be inclined to do it this time. Eönwë looks pretty innocent for his open fishing of support to lynch Cop instead of Holby (a wolf would be quite brazen to do that) and Nerwen is putting effort into this game in a way that suggests innocence to me (I know I voted her yesterDay and my minor suspicions concerning have gone nowhere, I'm just pushing them back at the moment because they don't seem relevant in the big picture) - it looks like she's actually thinking about who the wolves might be, not just hanging around. Still, I'm baffled that Eönwë and Nerwen have both completely ignored Copper's reveal.

Got caught up with the Eonwe-situation. Besides, there’s not really much we can do about Cop’s reveal at present. I’d already thought she had to be one or the other, so the reveal doesn’t really surprise me– and I can see the point of making it ambiguous– yet, as you say, that’s something that would be very much in a wolf’s interests as well.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

*heads explodes noisily* ARGGH. Since Day1 I've been flip-flopping on whether Cop looks more wolvish or gifted, and yesterDay I abstained from voting her and went for Nerwen instead of her because I thought she was hinting at being gifted. And now this ambiguous and thus uncontestable reveal, which would be pretty darn cunning from a wolf in dire straits. Well, I guess we should just give Cop the benefit of doubt for a Day or two and see what happens...

I would think if Cop was a sorcerer trying to pull off all the stops to hold off being lynched she would be making a false seer claim. Therefor the "I'm either the protector/hunter wizard" I'm going to take as genuine.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't like this list at all. It seems lazy and mostly just echoing other people's opinions, especially lumping Holby and Echo in one category of confusion, it feels like Eönwë is trying to fish sympathy or goodwill (maybe not consciously) by joining in OMGing over Holby and Echo's weird behaviour. (Seriously, I think their "weirdness" was greatly exaggerated in this game and I admit taking some part in that too.)

Well, that was just how I saw it at the time. I had actual suspicion for Cop and Greenie, I had bad feelings about Nerwen and Lottie, and at that point Boro seemed a little less innocent than the others. I didn't really think it worth it to focus on Holby and Echo, because playing like that would either get them killed early on (in which case trying to analyse their posts would not count for much) or keep them in for a long time (in which case I'd have more time to look at them more carefully). Either way, my time was very limited that Day (less than an hour), so it did not seem wise, especially when even if they were both guilty there'd still be another wolf about.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Speaking of the vote count above, it's pretty weird Holby didn't vote for Cop and try to save herself but instead went for Nerwen who only had one vote. Does this mean Cop is guilty, or that Holby was just being a bit careless (which she was before)?

Holby's actions could be used to argue for either (or both) Nerwen or Cop's guilt or innocence. It's probably best not to put too much stock in the vote of a dying wolf.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Still, I'm baffled that Eönwë and Nerwen have both completely ignored Copper's reveal.

Well, Cop basically already revealed yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Eonwe, if you've decided on a vote, if it's me I want you to tell me it in advance before you send it.

And it's quite a sneaky reveal because if she's not, it requires two reveals to disprove, which isn't going to happen. So we can't do much until more comes to light. And I was a little preoccupied...

edit: x-ed with Lommy

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm at loss as for Eönwë and Nerwen's row toDay. I'm always quite careful to label any arguments as two innocents fighting, but I'd be inclined to do it this time.

I agree. (Of course, I do tend to think loud fights are two innocents fighting most of the time.) Nerwen has looked pretty innocent to me practically all game, and while I had my reservations about Steve yesterDay, (reservations in this case being defined as "no clue whatsoever as to his alignment), his actions toDay and yesterDay at DL do make me more inclined to trust him. Moreover, the fact that Nerwen actually did end up voting for Steve - and the way she phrased her vote post - leads me to think that it wasn't wolf-on-wolf.

[A Little Green]

I'm back! I agree that Echo was probably a suspected Seer. I haven't really thought this through and Nerwen and Eonwe's argument makes my brain hurt, but from what I gather there are two scenarios if the wolves thought Echo was the Seer:

Scenario 1: they thought he dreamed Kath based on his pretty drastic flip-flop on her - from "Lynch the witch!" to "She's not important anymore" overnight might have caught their attention. If this was the case, Kath looks good.

Scenario 2: they thought he dreamed Holby. Also makes sense, given his (also rather drastic) sudden switch of suspicion to her yesterDay. If this was the case, it doesn't really tell us much about the roles of living players as Holby is already a dead wolf.

What did I miss?

Anyway, moving on to other things - a quick look at the vote tally from yesterDay:

Boro -> Lottie
No surprises here; he made a solid enough case and voted on it immediately. Not suspicious in itself, but would also be a pretty safe thing for a wolf to do. I hope we'll see more of Boro toDay; I might go through his posts as well if I have the time or the energy.

Nerwen -> Cop
Said that multiple comments of Cop's could be read as either innocent or evil and voted with

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I really just can’t make up my mind whether the “evil” reading of her posts is the right one, but I think it’s a possible one, anyway.

Kath -> Cop (2)
I'm pretty okay with Kath's vote; she had decent points behind it, including Cop's apologetic "Oops should have known better" after Legsy's death. This would also have been a pretty safe vote for a wolf to make, though, but since I tend to find Kath pretty innocent anyway I'm not too alarmed.

Lommy -> Nerwen
Because there are "little things that bother her" and because she began to waver on Cop and didn't want to vote for her. This makes me feel rather good about Lommy, actually. I'd guess a Lommywolf would try to think of a more elegant argument to base her vote on.

Greenie -> Cop (3)

Lottie -> Holby

Originally Posted by Lottie

Because I find her somewhat suspicious where I definitely don't find either Cop or Nerwen suspicious, and I want to put up another candidate who has a chance against Cop.

This sounds sensible. Also, it would be a daring move from a wolf since there was some anti-Holby sentiment around and quite a few undecided people left to vote.

McCaber -> Holby (2)
Not dwelling on this since I find it highly improbable that he is a baddie.

Cop -> Holby (3)
Self-preservation. Doesn't really tell much about her role as at that point it looked like it was going to be either her or Holby, so if she is a wolf it would have been a wolf lynch anyway. Of course as a wolf she could have voted Nerwen and hoped to create a tie and thus a no-kill, but that would have been quite risky as it would have looked fishy.

Also, while on the subject of Cop - the gifted reveal? I'm not sure. This "I'm either the Ranger or the Hunter" is pretty much the cleverest way to fake a reveal if you're a heavily suspected wolf. I mean, no one can come out with a contesting claim since the ranger will think "Oh, that means she's the hunter" and the hunter "Oh, she's the ranger". But it would also be sensible from a real gifted so I don't know! Cop thanks for making my head hurt.

Holby -> Nerwen (2)
This has already been speculated on so sorry if I'm repeating stuff, but this might be the most interesting vote of the bunch - why didn't she vote Cop? Was it that she wasn't up to date with the vote tally, or that she had given up, or that she wanted to protect a fellow Cop, or was afraid Cop was the Hunter? Or was she hoping that neither she nor Cop would get any more votes, leaving the vote in a tie and thus a no-kill? The thing is, with Holby it's hard to tell!

Echo -> Holby (4)
No surprises here either, and since both these guys are already dead there's no need to dwell on analyzing this.

Shasta -> Shasta
Because he fell asleep and had to avoid modfire somehow. Doesn't tell anything about him except that he should probably start drinking coffee or something, sleepyhead. Anyway, I hope he gets his act together regarding the voting!


EDIT: x-ed with Lommy, two Nerwens and a Sally!