Tol-in-Gaurhoth CIII: Big Magic in Middle Earth Arcane Encampment (Game Thread)

[McCaber]

One evil sorcerer down, an unknown amount to go.

I'd say this makes both Lottie and I look pretty innocent. I'll do a second readthrough and see if I can glean any hints from the post history soon enough.

And yes, as far as I know I'm on the village's side and I haven't necessarily lost yet. While this makes me innocent, this absolutely does not guarantee I know anything about any situations so please take my opinions with all the lack of credibility they deserve.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by McCaber

I'd say this makes both Lottie and I look pretty innocent. I'll do a second readthrough and see if I can glean any hints from the post history soon enough.

You maybe, but I'm not sure how it makes Lottie look good? Maybe as the starter to put Holby as a lynch possibility, but of the 4 votes for Holby, it is the most likely spot for a wolf-on-wolf.

Cop's was for self-preservation, which Cop said herself. So, it doesn't make her look better. But it also doesn't make her look any worse than all the suspicion yesterday.

There may be better trails to follow than the Holby voters, at least for today. As a "job well done" nod for lynching a sorcerer.

I wouldn't put Kath in the no-doubt innocent category, but she's the one I'm going to trust the most for the time being (stop getting so confused! ). If they had gone after Echo as the seer, then the sorcerers would have to think everything Echo said was right. (That being Holby = sorcerer and suddenly backing off Kath after the Day 1 vote)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I wouldn't put Kath in the no-doubt innocent category, but she's the one I'm going to trust the most for the time being (stop getting so confused! ). If they had gone after Echo as the seer, then the sorcerers would have to think everything Echo said was right. (That being Holby = sorcerer and suddenly backing off Kath after the Day 1 vote)

But they could hardly have thought “Seer”Echo dreamed them both on the same Night, Boro.

[Nerwen]

Echoalysis
(Longer posts will be extracts only.)

Day One

#26. [Replying to Zil (#3) and Coppermirror (#5) who both mentioned not having played with Echo or Holbytlass before]

Originally Posted by Echo

Hmmm mentioned twice only out of not being known, which is where the worst kind of fear birthed from,...(lack of knowledge). but everyone has some knowledge of the behaviors of others....except me.

such a public display just to crawl back to your condemed squanders, what do you have to think and be paranoid about?...

#49. [The infamous vote-post]

Originally Posted by Echo

This is quite a good point, kath is suspicious with all the nonsense chatter and trying to point out that she's "innocent
". She doesn't sit right with me.
++ KATH

#62. [Bolding vote]

Originally Posted by Echo

to be clear....lynch the witch ++KATH......or wolf in this matter of business.

#67

Originally Posted by Echo

I miss quoted with my clumbsy fumbling,..im a blind deaf (and stupid) black smith with my hands full,....or perhaps im just saying this???

Actually... after looking at all this, I’d say it does speak for Kath’s innocence (particularly #62). Not because Echo was killed last Night, but because he/she wasn’t killed the Night before. Er– whatever Night that was– this being an important point. Apparently we began with a Day phase. In that case the Seer may have had no initial dream– if this is so, and the wolves knew it, it somewhat weakens the case for Kath.

Would our moddess be so good as to clarify the matter?

–Meanwhile, as you see the only other person Echo mentions at all on Day One is Holbytlass (wolf), and this is just banter– though it does seem to carry a tone of suspicion.

[satansaloser2005]

The game began with a Day phase, though those with nightly powers were able to use them (with the obvious exception of the sorcerers' kill) before the thread opened.

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

The game began with a Day phase, though those with nightly powers were able to use them (with the obvious exception of the sorcerers' kill) before the thread opened.

Sally, there's one thing I'd like to clarify about that. Does that mean that the wolves were able to PM each other prior to the first Day phase?

[Nerwen]

Note: I had to leave halfway though composing this, hence the delay. No idea who has posted in the meantime; I am afraid to refresh for fear of Serverman, Lord of the Code.

Echo, Day Two
#105 [First post of the Day]

Originally Posted by Echo

Are we aloud to post now?
if we are i would like to say, may Inzil rest in shredded pieces.
hmmm i was mildly suspicious about him, but no matter now.




the reason i whatch my back at night
holby~ its not just me noticing her weird QUIET behavior but youd know better than me, im just a new nobody
cop~ hes either really good or really bad,...but im still havent desided which. (hopfully good)


mildly suspicious of
green~ill have to pick a better reason than the one ive got,...you dont sit right with me though.
AND everyone else.
[u]other[u]
Boro~ what can i say other than hes nice and welcomed me, i have no reason to suspect him........yet.



well ponder my list. think of me evil or think of me not,..i dont care.
but youll think of me the way you think when you think it. but if i die today or tonight you will get no further.

You see what I was talking about– this post just by itself could well have been enough to get Echo killed!

#108.

Originally Posted by Echo

as am i cop,
hobbits dont live in dirty,nasty, wet holes filled with the ends of worms,...but do holbyts?...........

More suspicion of Holby.

#109

Originally Posted by Echo

i patiently wait for the bantering and finger pionting..... though its quite late but no worry i eagerly wait!!! (well not the finger pionting if its at me)

#114. [Replying to me at #112, when I asked Echo to explain the Day One vote.]

Originally Posted by Echo

hmm all you need know is i dont think kath is quite important anymore,...does this have profound meaning?!,...i guess if you want it to,..but i find someone else making my skin crawl,....

And more. This seems to me more easy to interpret as “Forget Kath, I’ve definitely got a wolf this time,” than as “I dreamed Kath and she was innocent”.

#128.
Re-posts Holby’s Day One suspicion list, pointing out that the names are grouped by number of vowels/syllables.

Originally Posted by Echo

it was supost to be a joke,.... but shes posting vague things just so she cant seem suspicious or slip up.

Yet more.

#129.

Originally Posted by Echo

perhaps you might think my last post gives her justice that shes innocent? but i was observant enough to figure out her list. though dose not explain why she wouldnt just tell us about the list or perhaps i am wrong?....

And so on...

#161.

Originally Posted by Echo

all this talk of reasoning...makes my head hurt (quite litterally) i voted kath under mild suspicions ...and due to other people talking about her,...makes no sense to vote for someone if your going to be the only one....(like voting for the third presidential party),.....and its not easy voting when your in the back of a moving car thinking the DL is in minutes,..so i hope very dearly that is enough reasoning.

i will try to muster up a better reasoning of why i suspect Holby,...right now the best way to put it is a very strong gut feeling.....

And so forth... Note, by the way, how Echo more-or-less admits needing to come up with a case to justify an existing suspicion.

#175.

Originally Posted by Echo

because i didnt care about legate and i still dont he didnt make me suspect him much.......as for greenie,.....well ill save my fingerpionting for later,..
of course you probebly want an explenation for that last sentence,...ill get back to you on that.

Very cryptic– I suppose Echo had noticed something about Greenie, but never got around to saying what.

#179.

Originally Posted by Echo

hmmm interesting,..but sorry doll.
and the part about me and holby,...that was cute,..i laughed

I think this refers to #170, where Lommy lists Echo and Holby as “unlikely packmates”.

#205.[3rd vote on Holby]

Originally Posted by Echo

++HOLBY,...!!!!!!!!!!!

#210

Originally Posted by Echo

if i dont make it tonight,..green leaves fall on my grave

“I’m the Seer, I’ve done my job, farewell... Unless you feel like protecting me, Ranger.” That’s how it would read to the wolves, I imagine. Unless you take “green leaves” to be a supposed “Seer-hint" regarding Greenie (cf #175)– but it’s so weak compared to all the Holby-stuff that it would have to be no more than an intention to dream her next.

Well, that had to be done. Fairly useless, though. As you see, I’ve ended pretty much exactly where I started: I believe they thought Echo was a Seer who had dreamed Holby. There is little else to be got from Echo’s posts, except that, as already mentioned, his/her survival after the first Day is a point in Kath’s favour.

One thing I have noticed is that nearly all Echo’s posts have a white tree icon, while the first has a green leaf. Possibly the wolves thought this meant something. Possibly they were meant to think this– I am leaning now towards the idea that Echo may have been deliberately acting as bait. A very unusual ploy for a complete newbie to try– but I just honestly can’t work out why else an ordo would say half the things Echo did.

EDIT:X’d with Coppermirror & moddess.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, that had to be done.

Really? For someone who talks about unnecessary posting, the last two posts were an awfully long way of saying 'a Holby dream was more likely'. And then there's this point:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Actually... after looking at all this, I’d say it does speak for Kath’s innocence (particularly #62). Not because Echo was killed last Night, but because he/she wasn’t killed the Night before. Er– whatever Night that was– this being an important point. Apparently we began with a Day phase. In that case the Seer may have had no initial dream– if this is so, and the wolves knew it, it somewhat weakens the case for Kath.

What you're saying here is that the sorcerers would rather kill a new player whose playing style they know nothing about and which gained him/her a lot of suspicion and confusion instead of someone who everyone thought was innocent and was fairly no-trace after the first day? Considering the normal depth of your analysis, this looks like it could be a sneaky way to make it look like you didn't consider the situation fully to look more like an innocent. I'm starting to see where the Nerwen-votes are coming from. And Holby voting for you as she died does not help.

Not to mention that I thought we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely. I don't think anyone actually suggest a Kath-dream to be more likely, except for me within the context of a 'make-it-look-like-we-though-Echo-is-a-seer' kill.

edit: x-ed with Cop

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Really? For someone who talks about unnecessary posting, the last two posts were an awfully long way of saying 'a Holby dream was more likely'. And then there's this point:
What you're saying here is that the sorcerers would rather kill a new player whose playing style they know nothing about and which gained him/her a lot of suspicion and confusion instead of someone who everyone thought was innocent and was fairly no-trace after the first day?

No. I’m saying that if Kath was a wolf, Echo on Day One would have probably looked more like a gifted to the wolves than Inzil. This is a very simple and obvious point, such as I should have expected an experienced player like yourself to grasp quite easily. The fact that you don’t– or at least you claim you don’t... interesting...

Originally Posted by Steve

Not to mention that I thought we'd already agreed on the Holby-dream being the most likely. I don't think anyone actually suggest a Kath-dream to be more likely, except for me within the context of a 'make-it-look-like-we-though-Echo-is-a-seer' kill.

I thought I had better do an analysis just to settle the matter, and just in case there was something more to be gleaned. There wasn’t, but how could I know that until I’d done it?

Again, a simple, routine procedure. And yet, according to you, a sign of wickedness. Really.

Originally Posted by Steve

I'm starting to see where the Nerwen-votes are coming from.

You mean Holby..., right?