WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Galadriel55]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Oh, and, why on earth does everybody assume the hunter will be a known innocent if s/he lives an extra Day when the rules make it clear s/he can't reveal?

Well, doesn't the Hunter already use his ability by surviving an extra Day, and can kinda do whatever they want since they're as good as dead by the next Nightfall? They've spent their power already, so they have nothing left to lose by revealing.

Originally Posted by Volo

Lommy's math is ominous. I would rest easier if someone proved her wrong.

What in Westeros is that supposed to mean?

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But at that point (surviving the Night-kill) the hunter would have no power to lose, so no reason *not* to reveal; at least that's how I read it.

Yes, that's what I meant. Especially since the wolves/bear always know who the Hunter is, and the village doesn't always (only if he's lynched). The wolves and lovers know who they target and Night, we don't. That means that if the Hunter stays quiet, they have a Day to mop up their tracks and we are still walking in ignorance. If we don't know who they wanted to kill, we lack that much info on who to lynch that Day. The wolves/bear have one on us.

However, and this is something I have not considered when I started writing this post, the non-kill could just be a Ranger save from their perspective. They won't know either if said person is a Hunter or an unknown someone. Heck, the Ranger could be protecting a Lion from a Bear! I need to digest this thought, I can't think of all the consequences of this right away.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

The narration will let you know if there's a ranger save or, indeed, if someone refuses to die.

Aw. That kinda kills it. Never mind the last cool thought.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?).

Or at any rate it could draw out a desperate wolf. Either way, I can't see any negative consequence to this, but I can see several positive ones.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

The Lovers won't be making any specific allegiances until later in the game when it's clear which side is doing better. If we manage to get a wolf early on then they'll probably side more with us, but if we go days without being successful they probably won't. If we want them on our side we have to do well, basically.

I agree more or less with this statement, but it bothers me slightly that you are so sure about it.

Originally Posted by WythDryden

*Puts his suspicious eyes on* Getting nervous eh?

Edit: Well since reading page 2 and the posts agreeing with the strategy, maybe you are innocent after all. I'll still be keeping my eye out though. I have yet to fully trust any of you. Wilwarin's posts almost seem too helpful to be genuine after all.

Hey, it only takes a village to follow a clever wolf's lead into stupidity. It doesn't hurt to think differently. The fact that people agree doesn't make a thing less stupid. So if you think it's stupid, say that it's stupid, because maybe it just is.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

But then the lovers risk an easy lose. If they're in the open and we lynch one to get rid of the second Night-kill and an extra wolf vote, or just lynch them for whatever reason, they don't win. They have to be sure that IF they come out, they will not be killed OR lynched.

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.

On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

I agree more or less with this statement, but it bothers me slightly that you are so sure about it.

I'm working under the assumption that they are intelligent players. The whole point of Lovers is they want to live to the end and they could care less which team wins, so yeah, they'll wait to make any allegiances until it's clear which side is winning. It's an assumption I feel comfortable being sure about.

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!

That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I'm working under the assumption that they are intelligent players.

Assume nothing! Love can make anyone into a blithering idiot.

That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.

I think it would behoove the lions/wolves to not worry so much about the Bear right now. It's good for them to have two kills a night, for now. Could go either way, though.

I'm not sensing a clear direction for the voting yet... I shall have to go back and peruse your posts once again. We have yet to hear from Eonwe, A Little Green, and Nogrod. Are they quivering with fear in the corner (AKA doing real life things) or trying to fly low under the radar?

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Galadriel55

On the contrary, though the Bear is somewhat unpredictalbe (ie can kill a wolf), he is their greatest helper. Heck, they can cut out the village in half the time together!

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

That is true, but the Bear is also just another way for the wolves to die. It depends on what kind of wolves we're working with. If they want to kill as many people as possible to win more quickly, but risk getting killed during the night, OR if they would prefer it take longer to win with only 1 night kill, but at least only be at risk of getting lynched and not night killed themselves. It's tough to know basically whether this wolf team wants to keep the Bear around, or wants to get rid of him as fast as possible. If they think they're good enough to avoid lynching for a longer amount of time than they'll probably go for the latter and be safe from night kills, but if they feel they are likely lynch choices they may want to keep the Bear around to get the numbers down faster. I don't know how useful this speculation is though, even if they want to kill him asap it doesn't mean they'll be able too any more than we'll be able to lynch him.

Is there a new role that reads my mind and posts for me?

It is the beginning of the game, and if we focus on removing the Bear and succeed in that, we simply remove another threat from the Lions. Sure, the Lions and Bear might work together to take out us innocents, but I find that unlikely since:

A: They don't know who each other are, so as much as they want to be buddies, they could end up killing each other off.

B: They are a bigger threat to each other this early in the game, since this is the first day and battle lines haven't been drawn yet.

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

It is a double-edged sword, but by removing the Bear as a threat to the villagers we help the Lions. The greatest strength the villagers have is numbers, we can take a few blows for the greater good (the greater good) while we get a lay of the land. This is the nature of the game, and we cannot fight it.

So if the Bear is reading this, I don't want you to be afraid but know that though it is (currently) 1/21 chance to be lynched, it would be a 1/18 chance for a Lion to get you. This whole talk of "getting the bear first" plays right into the Lion's hands, who just want another threat to them removed off the board in the guise of saving the innocents.

Our key enemy here is the Lions, and the rules of the game dictate we must die for the greater good (the greater good), which I wholeheartedly accept and understand.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

If we've lynched two lions, the bear will probably side with us.

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by Rikae

If we've lynched two lions, the bear will probably side with us.

Just a clarification, game over when all Lions are dead right? We don't have to hunt the bear as well do we?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Rikae

If we've lynched two lions, the bear will probably side with us.

But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?

Originally Posted by Gil

Just a clarification, game over when all Lions are dead right? We don't have to hunt the bear as well do we?

I hadn't even thought of this....

[wilwarin538]

K, I think we're complicating it a bit. According to the admin thread "The innocents win when all Lions have been eliminated." So yeah, as soon as the Lions are all gone, the Village wins and if both Bear/Maiden are alive they win as well. In a traditional Bear game I think we would have had to keep hunting to get the Bear before we could win, but in this case he is foremost a Lover; so the traditional way for lovers to win is what applies here.

[Boromir88]

It's no surprise wilwa understands bears better than the rest, but she's got a thing or two to learn about lions...

Lions the family and the name comes first. They will use the other houses as their weapons. In an inn this large, with this many families with divided loyalties and alterior motives it would be easy to lay low and let us do their dirty work, while taking out their worst threats at night.

If the lions know who the bear and/or maiden is then they'll likely only become concerned if the bear becomes a clear threat by killing off Lions. However, the wiser move would be as I said, to use us as their weapons to get one of the lovers lynched, that way the other becomes a cobbler for them. And again in this inn with this many different allegiances it can be easier for the Lions to keep their paws clean.

[Coppermirror]

This is an interesting Day 1! Lots of useful discussion about the numbers in the inn, the bear and maiden and alliances, and the Targaryen. I rather adore the changed dynamic from the other, smaller games I've been in.

The only problem is that most of this won't directly help us catch the lions. 21 in the Inn, made up of 16 innocents, 3 Lannisters, and the Bear and Maiden of undefined allegiance. Most of the people talking will be innocent or undefined, so though it's a good day for innocent discussion and planning, the odds are really against picking out a Lannister.

I'm going to go and huddle by the fire under my many shawls and review what people have said so far. Mayhap I'll drink some ale while I'm at it.

Edit: crossed with Skip Spence

[Gil-Galad]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?

The way I see it:

We lynch the bear, lose a night kill but the Lions gain a cobbler.

Lions kill the bear, innocents gain a helper and we still lose a night kill.


I prefer the odds of a Lion killing off a bear/maiden then us lynching them and essentially helping the Lions. Sure, the two-kill night could kill off more innocents, but could also kill off a lion and an innocent.

Looking at the alternatives, lynching a bear/maiden will just end up helping the Lions more then helping the innocents.

[Nerwen]

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

Gil, you talk (and this isn't the only example) as though we could somehow plan this!

Edit: x'd with Boro.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by skip

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

Well, maybe. The numbers may be on your side, but it would also mean we'd be without a proper analyzable wolf kill for two Nights. That doesn't help us.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

For your second part: interesting that you said you were panicked about the double night kills but you want to focus on the wolves. I think killing one of either the bear or maiden is a better goal cause that's killing one person to decrease the night kills, rather than killing 3. Though, I don't know exactly how we could go about targeting the bear/maiden specifically, my hope is one gets taken out at night so we don't get a cobbler, but even if we lynch one getting a cobbler isn't the end of the world. Plus, once one of them is dead it could be easy to figure out who their lover was based on their posts (if we do get a cobbler).

This one irks me a bit. Yes, the lovers can become a problem if they choose to, but the way for us to win is to take out the wolves. Unless it becomes obvious at some point that the lovers have sided with the wolves, focusing on lynching a lover is counter-productive. It's also a bit wolfish: if we lynch a lover instead of the wolves killing one, not only are we doing their work (they fear them as much as we do), but we're also gifting them a cobbler. Nobody seems to be concerned about that.

Then again, reading on, Wilwa's thoughts about the lovers seem more innocent-ish and trying-to-figure-it-out-right-ish. Then again, Wilwa is one main reason nearly all we do is talk about lovers instead about wolves, which I don't like.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I'd really like to be rid of a second kill at night, but I'm not about to actively hunt the lovers.

This one seems fishy, too. "I don't like the lovers, but I don't want to do anything about it" - Subtly leading the inn towards looking for lovers more than looking for wolves, while keeping their own hands clean. Don't like it.

Originally Posted by Lommy

The fact still stands though that later in the game it's entirely possible for the joined wolves and lovers to win simply by being out in the open and ruling the voting. That's worth keeping in mind.

This would make me suspicious as well, for the same reasons as above. "The lovers are not as bad as I said before, but they're still very bad". The thing is, would a wolf state it in all-bold?

Originally Posted by Inzil

Come now, sir. It's difficult enough to suppress my natural desire to vote for you.

This coming in response to the slightest early Day One suspicion? Woah, there.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

But even if the Bear "sides" with us, he'll still be doing night kills, right? Until all of the wolves are gone he would still be a threat to us?

I wonder if he has to do night kills (moddess?)

If the lovers have decided to side with us, I assume he'd use the night kills to attempt to take out the last wolf. If he has no leads, maybe he'd skip the kill?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I wonder if he has to do night kills (moddess?)

Yes he does. Foul murder is in his nature. Otherwise he'd probably get so hungry he'd eat the Maiden Fair. (This is actually not a threat.)