WW CVI: Tol-in-Westeros Game Thread

[Macalaure]

Regarding our noble and rightful rulers, the Targaryens, there are three things that could happen:

1. He gets lynched - He will either take somebody down with him, or survive the lynching and live another day. What if wolves/bear target him during the Night, though?
2. He gets killed at Night - Again, the hunter will either take someone down as well, or there is no kill that Night (or one kill less) and he gets to survive through the coming day. In the latter case, will the village be told his identity?
3. He chooses to reveal - I highly doubt the mods will step in and confirm the reveal. Takes away the fun of fake reveals. Demonstration?

I'm the Targaryen!

He looks around the inn, twenty irritated faces staring back at him.

See, nothing is happening. We're south of the Wall, the dwarves aren't going to walk among us coldly again for no good reason. (Clarification on points 1 and 2 would be useful, though. )

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take care of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.


Aside from this, while I do agree that Nerwen's post was a bit suspicious, Lommy seemed a bit over-eager to jump on it. So.. hmmmm...


(Saw Volo's post as I previewed.)

[Macalaure]

Mac slaps his thigh at Volo's intro joke.

Now, obviously I don't think we should all reveal as hunters. One fake reveal might stir the pot a little, but many will eventually start to benefit the wolves.


I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?).

[Aganzir]

Wilwarin startled awake from a bad dream. There was a faint glow on the eastern sky, but around her everything was still dark. For a moment she lay still, blinking and wondering what had awoken her. Then slowly, as if against her will, she turned her head, and her gaze focused on something huge that sat in the shadows, a deeper patch of black against the dark room. The something shifted.

“I have a problem with you, Mormont,” he said in a deep, rumbling voice. “Your existence. The fact that you're living and breathing, to be precise.”

“Please,” wilwa started, but the bear continued:

“There is only room for one bear in this Inn, and you are the one too many.”

“Oh, Bear, please don't kill me! I have so much more to give!” wilwa begged. This was not at all how she had imagined the traditional song about the bear; the song that she had known since her childhood on Bear Island in the North.

The bear paused, as if to consider. “Now that you mention it, Mormont, I suppose I could find some use for you...” He took a step closer. Wilwa sat up in her bed, feeling unprotected. “You could give me a late supper,” the bear said. He drew back his giant paw and swatted wilwa on the face almost absent-mindedly. But so strong was the blow that it broke her neck, and her head lolled from side to side when the bear sank his muzzle into the flesh in her stomach.

**

The night wore on. The sun was already creeping up the sky when the Lannister were-lions figured they had lazed long enough in the warmth of the kitchen that still smelled faintly yet pleasantly of the blood of the dwarfs.

“Is it about time we murdered someone?” one of them asked, a lioness with soft fur almost as white as silver. (For, as you know, a male lion is not much of a hunter.)

“Do we really have to?” another one asked, yawning. She was sleek and golden.

“To defend the honour of our house, yes,” the third one – a muscular, auburn lioness said.

“What honour?” asked the golden lioness and got to her feet, stretching.

“Who do you reckon is the biggest threat to the Lannister triumph?” asked the first lion, ignoring the remark.

“The wildling,” said the auburn lion without missing a beat.

“The wildling?” echoed the golden lion. “The wildling when we have relatives and bannermen of important noble houses?”

“The wildling,” repeated the auburn lion.

“Whatever you say,” said the silver lion getting up.

After reaching this lazy consensus, the lions stalked upstairs with feline grace and were soon by Galadriel55's bedside. Her tangled hair lay on the pillow and she breathed peacefully.

“What should we do with her?” purred the golden lion.

“There's no time for games,” said the silver lion wrily. Indeed, the room wasn't quite dark any more.

Without further ado, the auburn lion jumped nimbly on Galadriel's bed, and she had barely time to wake up and gasp when long yellow teeth sunk into her neck and shook her rapidly until she moved no more.

The were-lions padded softly back to their beds.

**

As the patrons woke up, they found Galadriel's still warm body in the shared room she had slept in. It was unchanged.

When they went down to the second floor, it wasn't difficult to tell in which room the carnage had taken place. The floor was covered in blood all the way to the corridor, and intestines were spread around the room. What remained of wilwa lay on the bed, eyes blank and staring into nothing – the third one in the middle of her forehead as still and lifeless as the other two.

Dead:
Agan, moddess - slaughtered by lions on Night 1
Kath, moddess - mauled by bear on Night 1
skip spence, ordo - tasted the axe on Day 1
wilwarin538, Three-Eyed Raven - eaten by bear on Night 2
Galadriel55, ordo - pranced on by lions on Night 2

Alive:
Eönwë - house Royce
Inziladun - house Tully
Kitanna - illiterate peasant
Encaitare - random peasant
Thinlómien - house (Stannis) Baratheon
Boromir88 - house Bolton
Loslote - illiterate Tyrell cousin
Nerwen - house Martell
A Little Green - house Reed
WythDryden/Lote22 - house Martell
Eomer of the Rohirrim - house Stark
Rikae - house Tarth
Macalaure - house Connington
Coppermirror - crazy Northern hermit
Nogrod - house Swann
Colin "Volo" Mute - house (Euron) Greyjoy
Gil-Galad - First Baker of Braavos
satansaloser2005 - random peasant

It is now Day 2. Comment is free.

[Inziladun]

Give me a break! Seer gone, not even at the hands of the Lions. And we know her vote was an Ordo.

And what did G55 do to get the Lions' attention? I think that's the only useful info from the Nightly activity.

[Kitanna]

Well....fudge...

I've been slowly going through the posts from yesterday (I'm on the top of page 3 only). And if I had to make a guess as to why the bear got Wilwa based solely on what I've read so far 1) the lovers thought she was a lion trying to steer the conversation toward them rather than toward the lions. She is the one who started the lover and hunter talk. This only works if the lovers are indeed trying to kill the lions rather than villagers. Also turns out right now I have no #2 theory. Not yet anyway.

Long post to follow soon on my notes from the first few pages. Then more long posts to eventually follow about the last few pages.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Kitanna

And if I had to make a guess as to why the bear got Wilwa based solely on what I've read so far 1) the lovers thought she was a lion trying to steer the conversation toward them rather than toward the lions. She is the one who started the lover and hunter talk. This only works if the lovers are indeed trying to kill the lions rather than villagers. Also turns out right now I have no #2 theory. Not yet anyway.

Could be, I guess. But weren't a lot of people talking about the Lovers?

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Could be, I guess. But weren't a lot of people talking about the Lovers?

Yes, but she started it. It's not a great theory, but it's all I currently have.

[Volo]

I'm inclined to agree that rather than trying to kill the Seer, it's more likely the Bear tried to kill a Lion. Which could make the Bear someone who genuinely suspected wilwa during the Day.

G55's strong phrasings might give us a clue. I'll go check that one too.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by Zil

So, our hosts were killed by a lion and a bear? Now all we need are tigers.

Oh my. I’m sad I missed this post yesterday just for the sheer hilarity of it.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

So with the bear and the maiden basically what we want is for the bear to lose his killing power, and there's a few ways for that to happen; either he is killed or his maiden dies. So really either of them dying would be good and would get rid of the double night kill. But, the interesting thing is that we don't want to be the ones to kill one of them first, cause that would create a cobbler. So we basically have to hope that the wolves kill one of them so that the other will just be an ord. Kind of interesting that we want to avoid lynching the bear, very weird!

So this post seemed to start the lover conversation that dominated the D1. That same post also started the hunter talk.

Now with the coin toss the better result depends on where we are in the game. If it tosses that they survive an extra day that could be very useful closer to the end of the game when we need as many goodies as possible, where them dying and possibly taking down another innocent could be very detrimental,so it's better to just have them around (and I would assume we would know their role and be told it's their last day alive? so we'd also have a known innocent if that's the case). However, earlier in the game we would want them to get to use their power and hopefully take down a baddie, and if they accidentally take down an innocent we are still early enough in the game where our numbers are big enough to be able to not feel it as much as we would later.

Which Mac suggested Wilwa was steering the conversation away from trying to find lions by bringing up these roles. However, and I know others said the same, that the role of the lions never changed, so talking about the changed hunter role and the lovers was a good way to get D1 conversations flowing.

Originally Posted by Mac

Then again, Wilwa is one main reason nearly all we do is talk about lovers instead about wolves, which I don't like.

Originally Posted by Zil

And both of them want to stay alive, naturally. What's always difficult about a Lover pair is that they can choose which side they want to support, and could change their minds in an instant depending on circumstance. However, the death of one takes away that choice from the survivor. Very interesting indeed.

Zil takes the conversation further by stating the lovers can chose what side to support. In all honesty this had never even crossed my mind. I just viewed the lovers as powerful cobblers (with no specific alliance like a real cobbler) who did what was in their best interest, not necessarily depending on lions or village. Which was a bit naïve of me seeing that the lovers would have to side with someone eventually, even if it was brief, to keep themselves alive.

Originally Posted by g55

That's true. However, if push comes to shove, I'd trade the extra kill for a cobbler.

&

They become a known innocent. Well, as known as a revealed gifted with no proof can get. Could be helpful under the right circumstances, could be not. At any rate, I think it's for the hunter to decide if revealing at any given moment will pay off rather than keep their ability.

&

The survival ability also gives us the known innocent for an extra day without having a reveal. This is always useful, but especially so towards the end of the game. A live and known innocent! And we would know more from the wolves (bears?) motives without actually having that person killed. Like a Ranger save, except that the Ranger does not have to reveal. I must say, I rather like this option. The other side of the coin is your regular illogical hunter, as I understand.

Galadriel makes some good points in her last part about the hunter’s altered role being like a ranger save. Nice and helpful. I don't see much there to indicate why she was a target. Maybe too helpful in the lionesses' eyes?

Originally Posted by Mac

Wilwa of House Mormont gives good advice concerning lovers and hunter. I agree. Galadriel the wildling adds some sense, too, but Inzil of House Tully's comments on Wilwa's points seem more looking-to-be-helpful rather than actually helpful to me. Then again, Encai finds him helpful, so maybe I'm too eager to find something suspicious in what little has been posted so far.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?

Seeing as the bear kills at night I am in favor of discussing the role and weighing our possibilities of survival with bear and lions on the loose. I said D1 that I wouldn’t actively be searching for bear hints, but I think it’s important to talk about it. If for no other reason than it did get the conversation flowing, otherwise we’d have spent D1 twindling our thumbs and bantering.

Originally Posted by Lommy

In conclusion, we should focus on finding the wolves, but personally I'm not too saddened if the bear and/or his lover become casualties in our wolf hunt. No offense, but I will feel safer without a bear roaming in the Night, even if the bear is trying to kill wolves, because I don't trust anybody's judgement more than the collective judgement of the village. (And honestly I don't see the cobbler as a big problem.)

I agree with Lommy, which means she’s probably evil given my recent track record of trusting the wrong people.

So the following posts didn't really grab my attention until I read them back to back

Originally Posted by Mac

"I believe the matter at hand is clear enough. Were-Lannisters have killed our innkeeps, and there is little reason to believe they won't strike again the coming night. Since obviously we can't just leave this cursed place, we need to find who in our midst is secretly the worst among the Usurper's ilk." He looked around the common room in mistrust, then glanced again at his gloved hand. "And we don't have much time to do so! This place is suspiciously quiet and void of a sense of urgency!"

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Hmmn. I do believe Mac Connington talks sense. I've been sitting here listening to you all from my dark corner, and what do I hear? "Bears... Targaryens..." Barely a word from any of you about these murderous were-Lannisters we know are among us. I wonder whose interest it might be in to steer the conversation away from that particular topic?

Originally Posted by Lommy

What? Are you joking? This is such a classic wolf post I'm almost willing to give you the benefit of doubt, but not really.

Jumping on someone else's point to create suspicion against a group of people? Check. Throwing around vague suspicion that can't bear close inspection? Check.

Of course people are talking about the bear and the modified hunter this early on. It's always the exceptional rules that start the discussion on Day1 (it was the same last game, for example).

But ironically, your post has started the actual wolf suspicions (both by you suspecting the earlier posters and by me now suspecting you) so maybe I shouldn't complain.

I know I quote Nerwen’s twice, but I wanted it included in this string. I find this exchange interesting because Mac starts out mostly IC, but making a point that the talk is more about bears and hunters than lions, which should be our number one concern. Not unreasonable given we win the game when the lions are all dead.
Then Nerwen jumps on this with “yes, this is sense, look sense.” Which comes off as being overly helpful toward another player.
Then Lommy jumps in saying Nerwen is using a classic wolf tactic, while doing so herself. By jumping on Nerwen’s acceptance of Mac’s post and for throwing around vague suspicions. In this little chain I would say Nerwen and Lommy both look suspicious.
Lommy and Nerwen continued back and forth about the hunter after that. Mostly it revolved around the hunter revealing or what happened in the event the hunter was attacked. Mac jumped in with

Originally Posted by Mac

1. He gets lynched - He will either take somebody down with him, or survive the lynching and live another day. What if wolves/bear target him during the Night, though?
2. He gets killed at Night - Again, the hunter will either take someone down as well, or there is no kill that Night (or one kill less) and he gets to survive through the coming day. In the latter case, will the village be told his identity?
3. He chooses to reveal - I highly doubt the mods will step in and confirm the reveal. Takes away the fun of fake reveals. Demonstration?

I'm the Targaryen!

He looks around the inn, twenty irritated faces staring back at him.

See, nothing is happening. We're south of the Wall, the dwarves aren't going to walk among us coldly again for no good reason. (Clarification on points 1 and 2 would be useful, though. )

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take care of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.

I’m pretty sure his fake reveal means he’s guilty and trying to distract us or he’s a crazy ordo. Though, I’m not all that familiar with GoT, but I’m pretty sure the Targaryen’s were crazy due to inbreeding. So maybe he is the Targaryen or maybe another kid of Jamie and Cersei (I’m not really suggesting this last bit)

Originally Posted by Volo

We could use this time to forge an alliance with the Lovers.
Early in the game it makes sense not to pressure the Lovers.
It also makes sense for the Lovers to try and hunt down Lannisters,
since Lannisters are the greatest danger to the Lovers at this moment.
If the advantage shifts to the Lannisters in a couple of Days,
we might want to reconsider (meaning making personal notes on Lover suspicion).
I'll count the Bear as a kind of friendly neighborhood Assassin to begin with.

Part of what Volo says makes sense, but some does not. I agree that the lions are the biggest threat to the lovers (unless of course one fell under heavy suspicion) so they would want to hunt lions. But forging an alliance? How? The bear is likely to kill an innocent during the night. And friendly neighborhood assassin? Pretty crappy assassin that doesn’t even know his/her mark.

Originally Posted by Gil

Granted that the double night kills are scary, but keep in mind that Lions and the Bear will ideally choose their marks based on the days results. The Bear's greatest threat would be Lions, and would be smart to hunt them out first. On the flip side, the Lions are right to be afraid of the Bear at night and would see that threat gone immediately, anyway possible.

In a perfect game the two sides would just destroy each other. Too bad WW is generally messy.

Originally Posted by Gil

It is the beginning of the game, and if we focus on removing the Bear and succeed in that, we simply remove another threat from the Lions. Sure, the Lions and Bear might work together to take out us innocents, but I find that unlikely since:

A: They don't know who each other are, so as much as they want to be buddies, they could end up killing each other off.

B: They are a bigger threat to each other this early in the game, since this is the first day and battle lines haven't been drawn yet.

I would argue for lynching 1-2 Lions first, then going for the Bear.

It is a double-edged sword, but by removing the Bear as a threat to the villagers we help the Lions. The greatest strength the villagers have is numbers, we can take a few blows for the greater good (the greater good) while we get a lay of the land. This is the nature of the game, and we cannot fight it.

So if the Bear is reading this, I don't want you to be afraid but know that though it is (currently) 1/21 chance to be lynched, it would be a 1/18 chance for a Lion to get you. This whole talk of "getting the bear first" plays right into the Lion's hands, who just want another threat to them removed off the board in the guise of saving the innocents.

Our key enemy here is the Lions, and the rules of the game dictate we must die for the greater good (the greater good), which I wholeheartedly accept and understand.

I think this is a very sensible breakdown. I think we can all agree no one wants the double kills at night, but at the same time the lovers could be an asset if they are hunting the lions too.
The problem with this of course is the lovers don’t know who the lions are and keeping them alive could end this game very quickly. But also the lions probably want the lovers alive for extra kills. I’m waffling between hunting bears and hunting lions. My gut says lions because if we can eliminate that threat, who cares if the lovers live until the end?

Originally Posted by Boro

If the lions know who the bear and/or maiden is then they'll likely only become concerned if the bear becomes a clear threat by killing off Lions. However, the wiser move would be as I said, to use us as their weapons to get one of the lovers lynched, that way the other becomes a cobbler for them. And again in this inn with this many different allegiances it can be easier for the Lions to keep their paws clean.

This is me reading the posts in order because I missed a lot of D1. I'll be back with pages 3-5 later.

[Rikae]

I wish I hadn't pointed out that Wilwa seemed nervous, but it seemed like a evil sort of nervousness to me. Of course, the bear may have been content to get either a gifted or a lion. Or did she say something that made her one dream somehow apparent? She certainly focused on the bear a lot, seemed to be trying to decide whether it should be killed early or not, but I don't see anything that seems to clearly be hinting at the identity of her dream. Could have been bear or lover, in this scenario.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

The only instance I can think of where we would be purposefully choosing to lynch one over the other is if the Seer reveals the Bear and a Lion (wouldn't that be something?!) and we have to decide who to lynch first (I would say Bear, because getting rid of the two night kills is worth getting stuck with a cobbler).

Here's her list:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Skip: I really don't like his suggestion about the hunter revealing. Having a known innocent isn't all that useful right now, at least not compared to how it could be in a few more days. Also not a fan of his vote, but really Day 1 votes kinda always suck.

Lottie: her list is very non-confrontational (best word I can think of to describe it) appears helpful but really nothing majorly negative about anyone. But, she's doing this from work as I am, and probably doesn't have the freedom that I do to contribute more substance.

Gil-Galad: talking way more than I ever remember him talking in WW, but to be fair I probably am too. I have agreed with a lot of what he's said, so I don't know, iffy here.

Mac: seems very nervous about the potential of having a cobbler, don't really get that, frankly they aren't that huge of a threat, certainly not compared to an extra night kill.

Lommy: seems to think this game is "too easy", which I don't really see right now, likely losing 2 people a night and therefore increasing our chances of losing gifteds and our numbers dwindling quickly, is not what I would call easy. And that was in stark contrast to what she previously said about our bad odds.

I feel pretty good about Boro, Rikae, Kit and Nerwen. Everyone else I am neutral about at the moment.

If anything there is a bear hint, I'd say the comment on Mac (he's nervous about a cobbler because he doesn't want to kill a bear/lover). Mac's response does seem a little, I don't know, fabricated? Kind of a "back off from this or I'll call you suspicious!"?

Originally Posted by Mac

Not concerned about the cobbler itself, but I've got the feeling that some people have been trying to exaggerate the bear-threat to the point of prioritizing him over the wolves. Of course those people like to downplay the influence of a cobbler. In connection, I find this suspicious.

On the other hand I kind of doubt he'd go out on a limb like that to counter the very suggestion of lynching the bear/lover if he was one. It seems like a big risk to take when we're only talking hypothetically anyway.

This exchange would also be pretty bold:

Originally Posted by Mac

Originally Posted by Wilwa
Uhm, mine is a bear...I think I'll pass
Originally Posted by Macalaure
What's wrong with bears?

Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

On another note, I wanted to answer Eönwë's post from yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Fake revealing as an 'unflipped' Targaryen would work better as a long-term strategy (could get a few Days out of it), but as an act of desperation, a 'flipped' one is also possible.

It's my understanding that when a Targ is "flipped" by an attempted kill, the narration will indicate it. It doesn't get any clearer than that.

Edit: X'd with... everyone.

[Volo]

G55's list suggests that she could have been interpreted to dream of wilwa being Innocent - which doesn't help us much. G55 emphasizes wilwa unlike any other.
I guess she could have been suspected of dreaming of a guilty Mac, but doesn't seem that way to me. Could be the Lions were nervous of her being correct though...

[Macalaure]

Wilwa

In #91, she lists Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, and Nerwen as people she feels good about, no reasons given. If she has dreamt about an innocent, most likely it is one of these four. She raises some points about other people, but in the end states that they're all neutral. Then in #110 she votes known ordo Skip, without mentioning any second choices. If she did dream about anyone guilty, she's hiding it completely. I doubt it, though.

If the bear killed her actually thinking Wilwa was the seer, then he noticed something I didn't. Wilwa did keep the focus on the lovers-discussion for a long time. Maybe they thought if they could get rid of a person who talks a lot about their role, the general discussion would end up focusing more on the lions instead of them. If the lovers were safe yesterDay, that would be a sensible, low-key course of action.

On to Galadriel, in a little while.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

If the bear killed her actually thinking Wilwa was the seer, then he noticed something I didn't. Wilwa did keep the focus on the lovers-discussion for a long time. Maybe they thought if they could get rid of a person who talks a lot about their role, the general discussion would end up focusing more on the lions instead of them. If the lovers were safe yesterDay, that would be a sensible, low-key course of action.

Ah yes, you seemed quite worried about the direction the conversation was talking yesterDay. It seemed, and seems, a bit far fetched to me - simply discussing the lovers' role in the game on Day 1 without any clue who they, or the wolves, might be doesn't put them in any particular danger, nor does it protect the wolves.

But if you think it's serious business, maybe the bear did indeed...

[Encaitare]

The Seer, already? Yeesh.

I think there are two possibilities here. Either the Lovers didn't like how much Wilwa was focusing the conversation on them, or they thought they were going after a lion. I'm leaning toward the second option, because the first one seems kind of obvious. And I joked before that love makes you stupid, but going after someone who is drawing attention to you, even without making accusations, is not the subtlest of strategies.

In short, I doubt they picked up anything Seer-ish from her comments. The fact that the Bear killed the Seer was likely a happy accident for them -- and an unhappy one for us.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Wilwa In #91, she lists Boro, Rikae, Kitanna, and Nerwen as people she feels good about, no reasons given. If she has dreamt about an innocent, most likely it is one of these four.

Mac makes a good point here. Statistically, it's more likely that Wilwa dreamed of an innocent, and quietly placing one of their names in a list is a good way to imply their innocence without being too obvious.

[Nogrod]

Just a few principles I think should be thought about to begin with...

Wolves need the seer and they seldom are in a position they can easily let that thought pass their considerations (it is possible, sure, but quite improbable). So as a working hypothesis I'd say the lions were after someone they had even the faintest reasons to think was the seer.

I'd search anything that could look seerish from G55 on D1.

The lovers would probably go first for the wolves - but if they had an idea that the seer was up to one of them, they'd probably hold that as a more immediate threat.
I see some people have already picked up from D1 that Wilwa seemed very interested about the bear so it could be a possibility...

I'd search anything on Wilwa for both things that could point her being a lion or a seer.

Okay. Second half of the football match to go, but I'll be back then for a moment...


EDIT: X'd with Mac

[WythDryden]

Originally Posted by Volo

I'm inclined to agree that rather than trying to kill the Seer, it's more likely the Bear tried to kill a Lion. Which could make the Bear someone who genuinely suspected wilwa during the Day.

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. The numbers do favor the village right now, so the lovers would have an easier time winning the traditional way and the bear is one of the ways the wolves get killed. Though it is hard to say, it is definitely possible, though improbable, that wilwa dreamed who the bear was, and they got nervous by the added attention she was bringing to them. I am leaning towards the former solely based on the numbers, but there is definitely a connection that shouldn't be overlooked.

Edit: X'd Mac, Nog, Kit

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

I'll get working on that, but let me get that "your side" thing out of the way first. No idea why I wrote "your" instead of "our", to be honest. I tried to track it back, and the best I can think of is that I was referring to Skip's "WW is a game of numbers and the way I see things, the numbers favour a quick reveal.", which I didn't quote, but which came from the same post that I did quote. So I guess I must've been thinking about "his" numbers-comment when I wrote "your" numbers instead of "our".

You're lucky I missed that, as I could certainly have thought it voteworthy.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Gal seems like an odd kill because she was under some suspicion and could have distracted from the lions - either they felt under no pressure at all, or perhaps she seemed gifted to them? Looking over her posts, she talked a lot about the Targ - maybe they thought it was an opportunity to get the hunter out of the way early? That would also suggest they aren't under any pressure. She seemed most suspicious of Mac, Volo, and somewhat of Skip in her list post (#107).

Would they really have wanted to get the Hunter already, though? In that scenario, Mac might look better because she voted for him, and it would at least have been a good possibility he would have been her choice to take with her. I still have doubts about it.

Originally Posted by WythDryden

I think this is probably the most likely scenario. The numbers do favor the village right now, so the lovers would have an easier time winning the traditional way and the bear is one of the ways the wolves get killed. Though it is hard to say, it is definitely possible, though improbable, that wilwa dreamed who the bear was, and they got nervous by the added attention she was bringing to them. I am leaning towards the former solely based on the numbers, but there is definitely a connection that shouldn't be overlooked.

Well, I guess that's as good a theory as any. After all, there must have been something to catch the Bear's attention.

x/d with Rikae

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Rikae

It's my understanding that when a Targ is "flipped" by an attempted kill, the narration will indicate it. It doesn't get any clearer than that.

I just meant in such a scenario a lion who's going to die anyway could buy an extra day, because only the other lions and real Targaryen know their identity. Or anyone else (and in such a case, the wolves aren't exactly going to step in and confirm, though I can imagine they would try to get the false one killed to add credibility in the "see, I was right!" kind of way). And with no seer, this is even more possible. I mean, there's a very slim chance of such a thing, but that's the sort of scenario I was imagining.

[Rikae]

I don't care for lists, really, but I need to organize my thoughts. I'll try to keep it brief.

Eönwë - Last on the Skip wagon. At this point, that's a conservative vote, especially since the consensus seems to be that a lion wouldn't do it. Possibly the worst of the Skip-voters.
Inziladun - He seems defensive, but I think if he really had something to hide he'd probably be more cautious.
Kitanna - I thought she was suspicious but after looking everything over again, seems foul but feels fair. Her vote for Skip is actually reasonable enough and not too waggony.
Encaitare - This, from post #55, kind of jumps out at me:
"I think it would behoove the lions/wolves to not worry so much about the Bear right now. It's good for them to have two kills a night, for now. Could go either way, though."
Others expressed the same sentiment, but this just seems... odd.

Her vote for Nog also seems kind of out of the blue, and not very well-supported.

Originally Posted by Encai

Because he is acting very suspicious of Galadriel, and while I agree that she has been rather, um, aggressive, I don't think that would be a good lion strategy. It could be that Nogrod is latching on to that and trying to draw attention toward her. Meanwhile, he has been very quiet, maybe to keep attention away from himself. (Surely one can post on the internet and watch the World Cup at the same time. )

It's the sort of vote that's likely to be overlooked when there's an ordo-wagon to analyze (which she could have anticipated, at that point).

Thinlómien - Seems trustworthy enough, especially since she suspects me now.
Boromir88 - Hasn't said enough.
Loslote - Safe, noncontroversial. Skip vote isn't suspicious in itself, since there wasn't a wagon yet, but it also is rather an easy vote.
Nerwen - Seems to be poking, casting a little suspicion here and there. Then again, that is a good tactic for an ordo hunting lions as well, though I think ordos usually are more purposeful about it.
A Little Green - Seems innocentish.
WythDryden - I can't read him at all, not enough to go on yet.
Eomer of the Rohirrim - He just seems slippery. Glib. Safe. Too much like a lion would want to be.
Macalaure - A bear! A bear! Seriously, though, I'm unsure about him.
Coppermirror - No opinion yet, except that huge lists make me sad.
Nogrod - Seems his usual self. I disagree with him on some things, but he doesn't appear guilty.
Volo- Seems ok. I'm not buying the "Gal looked seerish" theory, and there's nothing else against him.
Gil-Galad - Gil's posts always look suspicious, so I try not to suspect him unless there is more evidence.
satansaloser2005 - Silly or under the reindeer. I can't say anything about her at this point.

Encai, Eomer and to some extent Eönwë look the most suspicious to me right now. Or maybe I'm just prejudiced against the letter 'E'.

Edit: Oh, and Nerwen.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.

Agree with Mac here.

It's been a while since I played, but are we still doing the "Day One is useless at the time!" "No it's not!" debate that used to define the beginning of games?

Or are the usual tricks to avoid it so clichéd that they become suspicious, twice over?

Like Lommy's (of course) and Boro's decidely leonine behaviour thus far? Hmmm?

String them up!

[Encaitare]

Here are the votes from yesterDay, including notes of who cross-voted with whom.

Greenie --> Kitanna
Boromir --> Lommy
Gil-Galad --> Lommy (2)
Inziladun --> Kitanna (2)
Encai --> Kitanna (3) *cross-posted with 3 previous votes*
Wyth --> Kitanna (4) *cross-posted with 4 previous votes*
Copper --> Kitanna (5) *cross-posted with 1 previous vote*
Kitanna --> Encai
Loslote --> Kitanna (6) *cross-posted with 3 previous votes*
Lommy --> Kitanna (7) *cross-posted with 2 previous votes*
Sally --> Lommy (3)
Nogrod --> Kitanna (8)
Rikae --> Encai (2) *cross-posted with 8 previous votes*
Eomer --> Boromir

Did not vote: Eonwe

[Encaitare]

The Lions' choice to kill Gil-Galad first struck me as a "safe" kill. Gil had been quietish and wasn't under much suspicion. But now I'm seeing that Gil was one of the only 3 to vote for Lommy. If the wolves were looking for a "safe" kill, they could have chosen one of the many voters on the Kitwagon.

New theory: Lommy received the second-highest number of votes yesterday. If she is a Lion, it could be that she and her fellow Lion made a risky choice to kill Gil, and hope the inn's guests wouldn't think she'd kill one of the three who voted for her.

As for the Lovers' choice to kill Coppermirror, there are three possibilities:
1. They are trying to lie low (like their kill of Nerwen might indicate)
2. They got a Lionish vibe from Cop (maybe they suspected a Lion under the radar)
3. They have chosen to side with the Lions (either for now or permanently, seems unlikely, but always possible)

The whole thing with Sally completely baffles me, and I hope she is here toDay to explain herself.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

New theory: Lommy received the second-highest number of votes yesterday. If she is a Lion, it could be that she and her fellow Lion made a risky choice to kill Gil, and hope the inn's guests wouldn't think she'd kill one of the three who voted for her.

It's not impossible, but as you said there were safer targets a LommyLion could have pushed for.

Originally Posted by Encaitare

As for the Lovers' choice to kill Coppermirror, there are three possibilities:
1. They are trying to lie low (like their kill of Nerwen might indicate)
2. They got a Lionish vibe from Cop (maybe they suspected a Lion under the radar)
3. They have chosen to side with the Lions (either for now or permanently, seems unlikely, but always possible)

Numbers-wise it makes sense still for the Lovers to side with the village. Did they think Cop was a Lion who'd been lying low? She'd been fairly under the radar and uncontroversial.

Originally Posted by Encaitare

The whole thing with Sally completely baffles me, and I hope she is here toDay to explain herself.

Who's the more odd, Sally or Boro?

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Inzil

Numbers-wise it makes sense still for the Lovers to side with the village. Did they think Cop was a Lion who'd been lying low? She'd been fairly under the radar and uncontroversial.

Yes, numbers-wise it does, so I hope they are still on our side. Either they thought Cop was a very stealthy Lion, or they were going for a "safe" kill. Maybe as more Ordos get killed, the Lovers are getting nervous about both surviving to the end.

Who's the more odd, Sally or Boro?

Seriously. I would feel a lot better about his quietness if he wasn't acting so strange about it. Boro, where the heck are you?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

Seriously. I would feel a lot better about his quietness if he wasn't acting so strange about it. Boro, where the heck are you?

Well, yesterDay he wasn't quiet but rather quite all over the place. Since Kitanna turned out to be innocent, he would look quite wolvish to me, except I'm not sure if wolf-Boro would make such a show of himself.

Originally Posted by Encai

Either they thought Cop was a very stealthy Lion, or they were going for a "safe" kill. Maybe as more Ordos get killed, the Lovers are getting nervous about both surviving to the end.

The only thing that stands out to me is that Cop is quite a similar kill choice to Nerwen - someone posting more analysis than opinions and not generally very suspected. Maybe they're multi-tasking the same way I was multi-tasking as a seer last game: go for more easily readable wolf suspects during the Day, for more difficultly readable possible wolves at Night.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

Seriously. I would feel a lot better about his quietness if he wasn't acting so strange about it. Boro, where the heck are you?

As vexing as he's been at times, try as I might I can't see a BoroLion acting the way his has. Why draw such attention to himself? Granted, it could an evil scheme on the part of him and his partner, but it still seems awfully reckless.

x/d with Lommy

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Encaitare

The Lions' choice to kill Gil-Galad first struck me as a "safe" kill. Gil had been quietish and wasn't under much suspicion. But now I'm seeing that Gil was one of the only 3 to vote for Lommy. If the wolves were looking for a "safe" kill, they could have chosen one of the many voters on the Kitwagon.

My theory is that Gil was generally unsuspected and quiet, so a good kill. Less chaotic than he used to be, so maybe even a gifted. Obviously the only trace in his posting leading to an innocent wouldn't have been something bad in their eyes either, and Encai being so quick to grasp at that trail doesn't make her look very good to me. Really, if I was a wolf, I'd have killed almost anyone but Gil.

[Encaitare]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

My theory is that Gil was generally unsuspected and quiet, so a good kill. Less chaotic than he used to be, so maybe even a gifted. Obviously the only trace in his posting leading to an innocent wouldn't have been something bad in their eyes either, and Encai being so quick to grasp at that trail doesn't make her look very good to me. Really, if I was a wolf, I'd have killed almost anyone but Gil.

A fair point. I haven't played in so long that I don't have a solid grasp of anyone's playing style anymore, but if you say he's acting different than usual, the Lions may very well have thought he was a gifted.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well, yesterDay he wasn't quiet but rather quite all over the place. Since Kitanna turned out to be innocent, he would look quite wolvish to me, except I'm not sure if wolf-Boro would make such a show of himself.

The whole "vanishing" act is getting rather old...

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I want someone, or more than one person, to explain in just a few sentences why Kitanna was suddenly top suspect yesterday. That whole situation was strange to me. I recall someone (was it Nogrod?) claiming that her death would give us answers, or at least better info. I'm not sure why. Sure, Kit always has a slightly sneaky style of play, but what does that matter?

That's mostly what I'm interested in today. I find the night-kills to be of limited interest since the Seer is no longer here.

Links to Mac are what's gonna catch us lions.

Sally and Boro better have explanations for their weirdness.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Even if there was confirmation, though, the hunter would be crazy to reveal now, considering how useful he could be late in the game. All we would gain is one kill-less Night, since the Night's Watch would take of him, but the next Night he'd be bread fried in bacon grease.

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

Sure, the Hunter may become useful later in the game, but (s)he might just as well become harmful taking down another innocent at death which may come at any time (in true Got style).

WW is a game of numbers and the way I see things, the numbers favour a quick reveal.

Originally Posted by Mac

I agree that we will probably be able to figure out the identity of a hunter surviving a Night kill without too much trouble (after all, who would fake reveal at that point, other than maybe a cobbler?).

Agan said that the narration will reveal that.

[Kitanna]

Originally Posted by skip spence

Hm, why crazy? That scenario sounds pretty good to me. The real Targaryan reveals. Can't see any reason why anyone would counter-reveal. Now we know (s)he is an ordo which is good. If the wolves choose to night-kill this known Ordo they need two nights to do so providing the Ranger gives protection, which is also good for the Village, since the Lions lose a night's kill and gets neither the Ranger nor the Seer during that time.

The bear still gets a kill (though one kill a night is obviously better than two) and the Targaryan doesn't have any knowledge to impart to us. She/he is just a known innocent to bolster the village numbers. Which isn't bad, but at this point a reveal isn't the best idea.

I've never played a game with Lovers before, so you bring up a good point. I had not thought that they might choose to support the lions. *clutches head* So basically there are four baddies we need to take out -- three lions and a bear -- plus the remaining lover who will be working against us if we lynch the other one. (Someone please correct me if I've got that wrong!)

It hadn't occurred to me either. Since they both have to make it to end game I assumed they'd just change alliances from day to day as the need demanded. Or be submarinish to avoid detection.

Originally Posted by Sally

You'll have to forgive dear Kit. She learned to count by cutting into her fingers one at a time, and she accidentally removed a few during the process, so math is a bit difficult for her.

No one understands my illiterate status better than you, my dear.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

For the first part: if the bear and the maiden decide to side with the wolves it isn't like they can start communicating with each other or anything, so I don't know why you think they'll be able to plot together so easily, they don't know who each other are anymore than we know who they are, so it's difficult for the bear and maiden to really help them out. I guess you mean if the numbers are right the bear/maiden could just reveal themselves and make sure they vote the way the wolves want? Yeah, I suppose that is possible, but that's always possible with lovers.

Agreed.

My biggest fear with the lovers is the extra kill at night. Though, they could take down a lion with this kill, which would be wonderful. And while a cobbler can be dangerous later in the game I'm not overly concerned if we lynch a lover and get one. Ideally the lions will target one and the remaining lover will be on the village's side. I'd really like to be rid of a second kill at night, but I'm not about to actively hunt the lovers. But I'm also not going to sweat it too much if we lynch one instead of a lion.